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Showing content with the highest reputation on 16/03/15 in all areas

  1. Few photos from a superb couple of days at Nevis Range. Super-lush Saturday in Coire Dubh & Summit Gully then a cold sleep overnight in the car with thick frost on the inside of the windows when I woke up. Took advantage of some free professional climbing instruction Sunday morning, and enjoyed even more laps of the back corries in the afternoon with the assistance of the mythical Braveheart chairlift, first time I've ridden it in 6 years. Summit Coire Saturday... Coire an Lochan Saturday ... On the way up to Climbers Col for some training on Sunday morning ... Riding the Braveheart on Sunday afternoon ... More lushness in Summit on Sunday ...
    11 points
  2. Interestingly, both the anomaly charts below - the 'ECMWF/GFS 8 to 10 day mean' and the 'NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb chart' - are in fairly good agreement for a cool(ish) Atlantic set up to take over. Lower than average heights generally dominating to our North and North-West with higher than average heights close by to our South and South-West. While nothing particularly cold and blocked looking likely, the flow, at the 500mb level, seems to be between the West and North-West on the charts. As such, does appear to suggest the possibility of a Westerly dominated pattern generally leaning towards cool, polar, air getting into the mix at times. Some slight differences between each chart, such as the GFS 8 to 10 day mean (to the right on the first image below) having the higher than average heights to the South/South-West being a little more influential over Southern UK. This of which could also mean the worst of any unsettled weather being a bit more concentrated towards Northern UK, otherwise, again, quite good confidence from the charts to see a Westerly outlook take over. Before then, it looks as though the cloudy, cool, Easterly the Scandinavian High has provided will start to lose its power. Brighter and milder weather looking to take hold over the UK as the Azores High Pressure ridge builds over the UK during mid-week. Looks as though Spring will be trying to fight 'Winter' away from the British Isles. Then seems likely low Pressure will drop down towards Scandinavia with some troughing developing to our East. This of which may provide a brief cold Northerly over the UK should it back far enough West before the UK/Atlantic ridge topples Eastwards and cuts off the Northerly/North-Easterly flow. Admittedly, out of all the charts, the ECMWF is probably the best chart this morning for this possible brief Arctic plunge for the early weekend. Maybe cold enough for a few odd sleety showers, most especially over the hills and over to the East (for those that want it) should the likes of the ECMWF be handling the outlook correctly (but wouldn't completely bet on it). Either way, some brief flow between the North and North-East does seem quite likely towards the end of this week.
    4 points
  3. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 16TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack East to NE flow will continue to affect all areas weakening tomorrow with a ridge over Scotland slipping slowly South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain moving down from the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow well away to the West and North of the UK currently. It then steers South close to Western Britain as UK High pressure builds late in the week. Thereafter the general theme is for the flow to strengthen across the Atlantic and surge East across the UK in week 2 with ony a slow relaxation North late on. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run doesn't differ much from yesterday with the continued theme of this week being governed by High pressure across the UK from midweek. With time this is then shown to recede South and SW opening the door to Atlantic Westerly winds and lower pressure with rain at times extending to all areas on occasion in temperatures close to average http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a very similar scenario through the period with the same drift towards more unsettled and windy weather in Westerly winds and rain at times next week. THE GFS CLUSTERS 90% of the GFS clusters show Westerly winds two weeks from now with variations in degree of extent and influence from Low pressure likely to lie close to the North of the UK. Only 10% of the pack indicate High pressure close enough to the South to cut off the influence the Westerly winds have and restricting then to the North only. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure close to the UK from midweek. A weak trough is pulled South in the flow setting up another day or so of chilly NE winds across the South before the High pressure in the NW slips South across the South with weak Atlantic troughs affecting the North next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure well in control of the UK weather this coming week with variable cloud cover, some sunshine especially midweek before the later charts show more influence from Atlantic troughs affecting the North by the start of next weekend as the High recedes to the SW. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows quite a chilly feel to it as our current rather stagnant pattern which lasts much of this week turns more and more into a rather cold pattern under Northerly winds and wintry showers with sharp night frosts next week as High pressure sits in cold air by then just to the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too keeps a cold feel about it as a High pressure ridge is maintained across the UK in one shape or another. The positioning and influence of that is determined by the shuffling of weather systems over Europe with spells of chilly and cold NE winds enhanced at times especially in the South with some wintry showers possible later in the East and SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows a High pressure ridge later in the week across the UK with fine and bright conditions but still with a chill NE wind across the South enhanced again for a time. As we move through next weekend and the new week the trend is for the Atlantic Westerly winds to return are shown with rain at times especially in the North at first but perhaps more generally by the end of the 10 day period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN There is strong support now from the ECM model members that in 10 days times we will lie under a westerly feed of air between Low pressure South of Iceland and High pressure near the Azores with a typical early Spring changeable weather pattern for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is still well supported with the evolutions thereafter maintaining a tendency for Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times to develop slowly next week especially in the North. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 88.6 pts and GFS at 87.4. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.6 pts over GFS's 60.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.6 pts over GFS at 45.7. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Not much new to talk about this morning from the outputs that hasn't been covered by me in previous reports as the pattern seems locked in the quiet High pressure based pattern this week with sometimes leaden skies and drizzly rain mixed with brighter and in places sunnier, milder weather with some sunshine especially midweek. Then the slow trend towards more unsettled and Atlantic based weather next week develops. There are of course differences within the models on how the more unsettled pattern evolves with the majority going for a straight Westerly delivering rain and showers in a typical March setup while a slightly fewer number show more of a NW or even Northerly airflow develop later with attendant wintry showers and frosts at night. The general theme though from the Euro's is that the former pattern will be more likely with some strong Westerly gales at times in the North to accompany the rain from depressions South of Iceland. It may also be that the South will see the least effects from this pattern though it looks likely that even here will see some rain next week. All in all though a lot of fine weather still to come before things turn more traditionally unsettled. Having said that there is nothing dramatic shown again this morning and given the time of year conditions won't be terribly exciting weather wise with Spring proper (i.e sunny and warm) still a little way off beyond the parameters of the current output. Issued at 08:00 Monday March 16th 2015
    4 points
  4. Not so sure about that sir, whilst warmth and sun might not have been overly evident so far march has been pretty normal, and could have been alot worse.
    3 points
  5. The detail to be decided of course but both NOAA 6-10 and EC show a pretty similar idea with GFS at times also joining the same idea. As Frosty suggested last evening, pretty normal fare for early spring. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and the 8-14 NOAA still with the ridge in the Azores area and a fairly westerly upper flow across the Atlantic into the UK. So perhaps a sort of NW-SE type split with the more settled weather occurring more often in the SE area.
    3 points
  6. sorry could not help this 'always look on the bright side of life' one day perhaps you will ?
    3 points
  7. High pressure in some format rules the roost in the near time frame , devil in the detail, but just like today forecasting tomorrow is proving difficult , and judging by the whole of the model output, Spring will take some time to Spring
    2 points
  8. http://meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015031612/ECM1-120.GIF That wouldn't be warm for lowland East London in truth. http://meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015031612/ECM0-144.GIF?16-0 A chilly Sunday you'd think as well. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015031612/gem-0-120.png?12 GEM - very similar. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031612/gfs-0-120.png?12 GFS - much more benign with a lighter NE'ly for my corner of the world. http://meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2015031612/UW120-21.GIF?16-18 UKM sides with ECM and GEM so looks like a chilly weekend for the SE. Longer term the Atlantic comes in as you might expect.
    2 points
  9. Been away from this board a while - just too busy - but doesn't seem much is changing. Spring has definitely forgotten to show up aside a couple of days last week, and I wonder if March may squeeze in below average. The winter tendency for the Azores high to hang back to the west looks set to continue, and in tandem with a strengthened trough the the northeast, it looks set to stay on the cool side for quite some time. For the whole of Europe, too, right down to the Med
    2 points
  10. The high is hanging on slightly longer on this run compared to the 06z 12z 06z The low does break through in the end GEM updating slowly and longer term it also shows the high lasting longer than previously shown
    2 points
  11. 6z shows a good recovery in temperatures in the south by tomorrow and wednesday with 12-13c compared to today's chilly 7-8c and there will be more in the way of sunshine, temperatures slower to recover further north and west but they do improve as this week goes on, however, later this week the orientation of the high changes and winds go around to NEly which draws colder and cloudier weather across the east in particular but by the weekend it turns milder and brighter again. Low res becomes more unsettled as the northern arm of the jet strengthens.
    2 points
  12. Now I've finally managed to work out which area of the country I live in... Grotty day weather-wise, although at least the wind had dropped a bit when I had to do some stuff in the garden for my parents in the early afternoon. The good news is that six weeks after his pacemaker was fitted Dad's finally recovered enough from the hospital-acquired pneumonia to have the energy and speed of thought to start driving again. Friday's forecast doesn't look good for eclipse watching.
    2 points
  13. The Ecm 12z shows two pulses of cold air from the NE / North with a risk of wintry showers and the outlook turns increasingly unsettled from the northwest, before all that there is a window of fine and pleasant weather before it turns more unsettled at the end of the week although it does briefly settle down again in the south for a day or so. The run up to Easter looks more likely to be unsettled than settled with the Atlantic cranking up and with a nw / se aligned jet, further cold incursions would be likely.
    2 points
  14. Of course, it follows that whilst every sane person on the planet agrees that CO2 and temperatures have a relationship we are very unsure about the magnitude of that relationship, with, I think, reasonable estimates for doubling between 1.5degC to 4.5degC which is, in effect, tantamount to saying "we're really not very sure about this" Which is fine. All science is, is a rational method of sharing ideas on the proviso that this is temporary until something that better fits comes along later. In climatology, as you say, it's the model parameterisations within the limits of uncertainty nonlinearity provides for along with more and more data.
    2 points
  15. A look at the most recent research on solar effects on climate and moving beyond the traditional concept of TSI. Some of this research will be of interest for the stratosphere thread. http://www.progearthplanetsci.com/content/1/1/24
    1 point
  16. I could point to the month, like September, with a strong warming trend since 1998 to make an opposite claim about the climate, but that would be biased, wouldn't it? Or, seeing as this is about the climate, we could use some more data, rather than individual months perhaps? So how about looking at annual temps or the 12 month running average?
    1 point
  17. Indeed. The CET is round about average at the moment so you cant really get a more typical start to Spring than we have had. The models are painting a very nondescript and average outlook tbh. Cloudy and cool for some with the odd milder day mixed in. Some Spring sunshine too.
    1 point
  18. Yes very poor forecasting today re the extent and local heaviness of the rain. Had about 3mm of rain here today with incessant light rain mixed with short sharp bursts containing hail on a couple of occasions since lunch. I noticed the upper winds have veered SE now so some sort of formed troughing may have been responsible for the local heavy rain. Also with more over the Channel moving North in the coming hours a damp night too looks likely.
    1 point
  19. Some are commenting on daily values (and likely values), I was referring to the change over the last 5 days. I don't really pay much attention to the daily ups and downs unless they are something really extreme, the average over a couple of days gives a better idea of the trends. With NSIDC, JAXA and CT, they are all on the increase again as a whole over the last 5 days, and likely to increase further during the week.
    1 point
  20. Conference on sun-climate connections - list of presentations with abstracts. http://scc.geomar.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=506&v=List
    1 point
  21. Record-melting heat across western U.S. From California to North Dakota, a large part of the nation’s northwest half experienced summer-like heat over the weekend. Some of the more ominous reports came from fast-drying California, where the rainy season is limping to a halfhearted end. Many stations around Los Angeles and San Diego set record highs near or above 90°F on each day Friday through Sunday. In the San Francisco Bay area, all-time monthly heat records were notched on Saturday at Salinas Airport (92°F), San José (89°F), Monterey (87°F), and on Sunday in Fresno (91°F). The heat pushed into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains on Sunday, with the all-time March record falling at Rapid City, SD (84°F). Many other locations saw their warmest day for so early in the season. In North Dakota, both Fargo (75°F; normal high 35°F) and Grand Forks (70°F; normal high 33°F) had their earliest 70°F readings on record--though by just one day, as the Great Warm Wave of March 2012 headed toward its amazing apex starting on March 16. More records appear certain to fall over the central Great Plains on Monday, with even the impressive numbers from 2012 in jeopardy at some locations. At last: a seasonal snow record for Boston The snowy onslaught that gripped Boston in late January and February smashed records for the most snow observed there in any single month (64.8â€, besting the 43.3†from January 2005). After a reprieve in early March, a quick shot of snow on Sunday afternoon secured this winter’s place in city history as the snowiest on record. Sunday’s 2.9†pushed the seasonal total to 108.6â€, breaking the record of 107.6†set in 1995–96. In a Sunday article, the Weather Channel’s Jon Erdman highlighted these and many other noteworthy aspects of Boston’s snow siege of 2014–15. The city’s snow records date back to 1891–92. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2936
    1 point
  22. Some pretty dynamic rain here at times this afternoon, more so than I envisaged. Light rain started around 10am and fell intermittently with occasional brightness but a very heavy shower passed over here shortly after 14:00, an almost summerlike downpour with the roads like rivers in no time. As said above, some small scale convection indeed to get the intensity of these showers. Shame I haven't seen hail.
    1 point
  23. And with respect to climate change ( as well as variability), here's another good paper. SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE ABSTRACT
    1 point
  24. I'm not entirely sure what is meant by the "naturals" so will have to make assumptions here. PDO = very positive AMO = weakly positive ENSO = weakly positive (predominately Modoki type therefore circulation patterns not corresponding to true NINO state. Solar maximum early in the year. Global response = warmest on record. IMO, 'naturals' are in a constant state of flux - some permutations enhance, others offset any warming signal - therefore, I don't agree with the premise of a switch being flicked from off to on as far as indices are concerned but in the case of 2014 there were more on than off. Probably a similar scenario this year but, in reality, we don't know the longevity of any of them.
    1 point
  25. Yet another cock-up from the BBC forecast. 'Mainly dry' 'Largely dry' 3 hours ago "Apart from a few showers in eastern areas of UK - today is looking mainly dry but rather cloudy." It might be moaning, but forecasts by them have been terrible of late. Currently 6.2°C and raining.
    1 point
  26. As well as the eclipse this Friday is the vernal equinox with 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of darkness
    1 point
  27. Well, yes. Colder in relation to the most recent average, warmer in relation to most 30 year averages. Every 30 year average is cool in relation to current temps! All the other data sets have their info freely available, so anybody can convert them to any baseline they like.
    1 point
  28. The GFS 06Z output continues the theme of a strong Atlantic at the end of the month possibly as an initial response to the final stratospheric warming over Asia pulling the remnants of the PV back to its "normal" Greenland/NE Canada home. A procession of LP passing just to the north of Scotland but the emphasis possibly more on PM rather than TM air. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031606/gfs-0-288.png?6 Very typical - ridge, depression, ridge. Another coldish plunge to the NE of the USA right at the far end of FI but also perhaps a sign of the final weakening of the PV - we'll see. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif AO trending back positive - indeed a few members saying quite strongly so - after a negative spell this week suggesting the Atlantic-dominated spell is set but a huge spread by the end of the month so a lot of options on the table and a suggestion the Atlantic-dominated spell might only be 7-10 days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Likewise, the NAO, after a dip to near neutrality, goes positive again but a big spread among the members so, as you'd expect, plenty of options to end the month.
    1 point
  29. The JMA data should be useful for the discussions further back as it is based on most recent thirty year base. It does highlight why some have the impression of the 1950 - 1980 period being a cool one in relation to current trend.
    1 point
  30. For my area the list would be; 2013 A month worthy of many winters. 55cm accumulated snow, huge drifts, 5 ice days, 18 mornings with lying snow and 24 air frosts 1987 29cm of snow on the 6th, 23 air frosts and 14 mornings with lying snow 1962 As cold as 2013 but not as snowy 1996 Not as snowy as some on the list but unremittingly cold. Highest max' was 7.5c on the 6th 1979 A notable mid month blizzard with 22cm falling on the 16th 1995 30cm accumulated snow and 11 mornings with snow lying 2001 27cm accumulated snow and 11 mornings with lying snow 1970 A cold and snowy first half offset by a less cold second half 1985 8 mornings with lying snow and an ice day on the 20th 1969 Persistently cold with frequent, mainly light, snowfall 1986 9 mornings with lying snow despite only 6cm falling all month. An ice day on the 1st.
    1 point
  31. Interesting connections here.The 2017 total eclipse that crosses the continental USA belongs to the Saros group that produced the 1999 total eclipse across parts of Cornwall and Devon. There hasn't been a total solar eclipse across the continental USA since 1979, it just so happens this Friday's eclipse belongs to the Saros group that produced that eclipse. All eclipses, solar or lunar, belong to a Saros group. They occur about every 18 years, 11 days and about 8 hours from each other. The Saros group that is producing Friday's eclipse is nearing its end. Over hundreds of years, a Saros group starts from one of the Poles and the tracks of each eclipse every 18 years either progresses further and further north or south depending which Pole, the Saros group stared. In the case of Friday's eclipse, it's Saros group started in the south polar region over 130 years before the Battle of Hastings. There's a YouTube animation of Friday's Saros group
    1 point
  32. GFS & ECMWF both continue to show a cool/unsettled Pm flow from the 24th. With a wintry mix over high ground.
    1 point
  33. A perfect Thames streamer here overnight - unfortunately a month or two late, and 5oC off the money. Grrrrr.
    1 point
  34. Yeah, temperatures have certainly felt persistently 'cool'. Not always on the thermometer but quite often cloudy and cool. Though, we did get some noticeable sun in February but since then very little.We got the snow which did provide some greeness actually when it turned milder but since then it's turned colder or certainly less sun and fairly heavy rain at times, usually windy to boot. I'm quite happy tbh. March 2012 beautiful - very very bad summer. April 2011 - approaching 'hot' even in April. Poorish summer. Great July's in 2013 & 2014 so I hope a repeat is down the line. Wishful thinking perhaps but I certainly don't like extensive high pressure situated in a great 'July' position in March or in October... Get the rubbish away now so hopefully we see a lifting of the jet stream and an encroachment of the Azores high, perhaps even a displacement here if we cross our fingers
    1 point
  35. That time of year again already. I had the joy of stone picking plus raking conifer debris off the veg patch. All that after an excellent cycle ride - 1st butterfly of the year and this one was a Small Tortoiseshell. A frosty start and finish but wall-to-wall sunshine in between. Eeee... looks cloudier and crappier for the week though...
    1 point
  36. It's normal early spring weather and it's not all doom and gloom, we have fine pleasant conditions just around the corner and even when it turns more unsettled there will still be some dry and sunny weather too but there is something for coldies, if there are any left? and also for those who prefer milder.
    1 point
  37. Nothing spectacular in the days ahead with both ecm and gfs show high pressure in some format in control, Day to day forecasts will prove difficult in the days ahead. From t+168 they both show The Atlantic comes steaming in.....
    1 point
  38. Evening model watchers! Well the ECM continues to be the worst scenario of the big 3 tonight as its the most west with the high next weekend and brings in cooler, showery air: It has the UK under sub zero uppers throughout the run pretty much! The UKMO is an improvement on this mornings run, holding onto higher pressure into Saturday: GFS strongest with the ridge: Looking further ahead, then the GFS isnt showing what most would like to see im afraid, with a distinctly cool an wet run up to Easter and end of month:
    1 point
  39. On my favourite job of the year this afternoon stone picking with some help from young Mr.Northernlights friends. I agree with SW Saltire above the countryside is very drab with little sign of greenness. Its been a pretty hard winter with all the severe rain/ wind and bare frosts with only deep snow lacking which would have protected plants from the fore mentioned . Currently 3c.
    1 point
  40. Quite interesting http://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/News/DAT_2568126.html
    1 point
  41. Expected to see a little more sun today tbh. Fairly chilly at 7.8c with a nagging breeze. Less cloudy than this morning (wouldn't be hard) but despite some blue sky the sun has yet to make any real appearance. Some fields looking a bit greener but generally it's still a dirty brown/yellow, looking like a wasteland. We should see a dramatic change in the next 2-4 weeks, with some slightly milder weather, rapid changes in daylight and stronger sunshine
    1 point
  42. Hello from the Val Cenis (1,440m) in the French Alps. Arrived Saturday afternoon with an expectation from GFS model output (also Netweather and snowforecast.com forecasts) of sleet, turning to snow by early evening. Instead the sun was out, with a few clouds producing the occasional flurry. In the evening it was clear and starry. Today (Sunday) we have had a reasonable day's skiing in persistent light to moderate snowfall and a stiff breeze blowing the snow around. This afternoon lower slopes have turned very soft with temps in the village of +4c. A couple of photos of conditions at around 2,300m show how poor the light and visibility were: The forecasts of recent days suggesting a big fall of snow for here are looking overstated. This afternoon's Euro4 charts show why. Whilst the Italian Alps get a pounding, very little is making it over the border into the French resorts. Sunday 15th mid-day Monday 16th mid-day The good news for me is that forecasts are now suggesting a much sunnier second half of the week, Weds thru Fri. Hopefully I'll still get my long lunch sat in the sun whilst enjoying spectacular views of the surrounding mountains! Edit: Typo with the resort altitude - corrected to 1,440m.
    1 point
  43. Cold night here last night as the temperature fell just below -8'C - had similar conditions to now occurred in December or January it would've been very cold indeed, possibly -15'C or thereabouts going by similar events in the past. Stunning day again here with wall to wall sunshine, barely any wind. Really uplifting seeing things slowly come back to life after a winter of strong winds and numerous transient snow events.
    1 point
  44. Same again today but with the addition of a Red Admiral which landed on Mrs Northernlights washing. Cows are lying down in the neep field as the surface is so dry. sunning themselves .Its been a long winter for them too.
    1 point
  45. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MARCH 15TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack East to NE flow will affect all areas with a ridge over Scotland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially at first in the South and in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow forced North over the Atlantic and Iceland due to a High pressure block over Europe. This pattern is maintained for some time before the general thrust of the flow will change axis to a West to East motion across the UK through Week 2 as High pressure collapses http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run today shows another week of weather across the UK with a strong anticyclonic influence, firstly from a ridge from the East and later by High pressure near or over the UK. Rather cloudy but dry conditions at first should give way to brighter conditions with a risk of night frost as the week progresses and the South should lose the chill ENE wind. Through Week 2 the trend is for Low pressure from the North to gradually take over with wind and rain at times in more changeable weather in more of an Atlantic westerly flow as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in trend to the operational this morning with a change to more changeable weather from about a week from now. Having said that the influence of any changeable weather in the South will be muted as High pressure remains close by to the South with the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall always towards the North. THE GFS CLUSTERS Apart from 5% of the GFS clusters this morning indicate a return to strong Westerly winds and rain at times for the UK two weeks from now. The 5% hold High pressure near the SE pf the UK with fine weather. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure to the East receding to new High pressure across the UK midweek with fine and dry weather with more sunshine. This recedes slowly West to allow a chilly Northerly into Eastern Britain come next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure well in control of the UK weather this coming week with variable cloud cover, some sunshine especially later with some night frosts in the North as the High pressure ridge to the East transfers to a UK based one over the NW from midweek. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows High pressure largely in control over the UK in the shape of a ridge from the East at first and then from the West as new High pressure develops there later in the week. The only caveats to this are the NE breeze early in the week could reemerge for a time later in the week over the South and later the far North could see a stronger Westerly flow develop with some rain as the ridge slips further South across England. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the same format with High pressure developing to the West of the UK by soon after midweek replacing the chill NE flow over the South with an equally chilly Northerly over the East while most parts stay largely dry and increasingly brighter by day but with frost risk at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows a similar sequence to NAVGEM and UKMO this week with High pressure relocating just to the West of the UK with various troughs sinking South over NW Europe late in the week and sending cold polar winds down over the West of Europe with the fragments of this affecting the East late in the week and more generally on the second pulse at the start of Week 2 when wintry showers could occur for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a greater chance of Westerly winds over the UK with High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the NW with a changeable pattern of weather likely over the UK in average temperatures overall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is well supported with the evolutions thereafter gradually showing more of a tendeny for Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times to develop slowly especially in the North. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.7. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.8 pts over GFS's 61.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.4 pts over GFS at 45.6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Changes in the weather synoptics over the coming few weeks will be relatively small but subtle with the overlying trend being for a lot of dry and fine weather for at least the first two thirds of the two week period. The surface conditions will all depend on location across the UK in relation to where High pressure bringing the fine weather sits. The far South and SE could well be plagued by a cold drift of wind from the NE at times especially early in the week while the North will see much lighter winds as well as more sunshine and the risk of night frosts. This risk increases somewhat later in the week as cleaner air looks like arriving for most as High pressure transfers close to the NW of Britain. Thereafter things gradually become less clear as most output suggests the desire to slip High pressure away West or South meaning Low pressure from the North could slip SE or East to the North and NE of Britain gradually increasing the risk of rain, wind and wintry showers to these parts later but from this morning's output it looks like any change along these lines may be well muted over the South for longer. In general though some very useable early Spring weather looks likely this week and possibly some of next too in the South where chasing cloud amounts will be the main feature day to day. The North too will share in a lot of dry weather too with some sunshine before the risk of rain from the North increases in week 2. What I can say with reasonable confidence though there will be no particularly unseasonably cold or mild conditions to deal with as temperatures through the period look like ranging from just above to just below average though frosts at night are more of a certainty for all if skies clear overnight. Rainfall through the two weeks looks like being below average generally and probably well below average across many parts of the South and SW. Issued at 08:00 Sunday March 15th 2015
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  46. Nevis Range looks super today.
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  47. Smile of the day re offshore oil workers getting heavier... it's been suggested it's because their wallets are now included at the weighing... Erm, nice day here though!
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  48. Anyone spot this in the World section? More snow in one day in Central Italy than Boston got in total in Jan / Feb. A new world record for snowfall in 24hours. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31837823
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