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Showing content with the highest reputation on 23/02/15 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    seriously?... and meteorologically its spring on march 1st as you well know. we all know we might get some late cold in march, or even april, so what? and id suggest its the coldies who have given up, and have forgotten about winter themselves... where are they? sm, ns, teits, wib, etc they know its now highly unlikely that there will be a proper cold/snowy spell...heck even frosty is spring-ramping! lol. so i dont think gibby is 'forgetting' you, not that he or anyone has some sort of duty to predict for you, hes just being realistic and going with the season, most of us now are looking for sunnier, warmer weather.
  2. 5 points
  3. 4 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and strong Westerly flow will blow across the UK today slowly veering NW tomorrow as a depression moves slowly east to the north of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy with rain at times and hill snow across the North especially at first. Possibly milder more generally later and maybe drier in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week before it weakens somewhat as it moves back more to the North of the UK later in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week ahead with the cold and showery period until Wednesday giving way to a milder interlude midweek with some rain and a return to cold and windy weather with showers to end the week. thereafter the pattern becomes more confused with High pressure gradually taking control of the weather, first to the South and then to the NE which becomes more meaningful as it changes the milder complexion to one of colder weather with winds blowing across from Europe and pressure falling to the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is broadly similar throughout it's run today with the same High pressure influence to the South moving over to the East later and suggesting a chance of a chilly ridge from the European High affecting at least parts of the UK at the end of the run. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning look largely supportive of High pressure lying close to the UK with a spread of options ranging from a centre to the SE, SW or across Southern Britain with only Northern areas likely to be seeing rain of any note at that time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning looks distinctly changeable under Westerly or NW winds. There will be spells of rain alternating with showers all week with temperatures fluctuating between mild on Wednesday and rather cold thereafter with showers, wintry in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show changeable conditions across the UK this week with various troughs bringing their own alternating pattern of milder and wetter conditions with colder showery periods in West or NW winds. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning shows a sustained period of strong Westerly winds with fast moving troughs delivering spells of rain followed by showers, wintry at times. This pattern continues unabated right out to day 10 on this morning's run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also maintains a Westerly flow across the UK through the next week with some milder weather at times but with colder interludes too with showers turning wintry over the hills at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows the same basic pattern as yesterday with High pressure gradually creeping closer to the South with time gradually lessening the impacts of the otherwise persistent Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times and fluctuating temperatures.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a familiar pattern of High to the South and Low to the North in a broad Westerly flow. With less of a cyclonic NW direction to the flow and more of a SW to West then the incidence of tropical maritime air influences across the UK especially the South is likely to be greater than of late. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the output today of how much and what impact High pressure has across the UK in Week 2 with a variety of options shown not all for fine weather. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 88.1 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.2 pts over GFS's 59.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.2 pts over GFS at 41.6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS There is little change in the output this morning than that shown yesterday in that all interest focuses on how much influence building High pressure has if any on the weather across the UK in a week or so. There are many certainties over this week in that changeable and sometimes rather cold weather will prevail with rain and showers at times in fluctuating temperatures as depressions continue to roll East to the North of the UK sending their associated troughs across the UK. We then look to the South and SW to see if High pressure develops close enough to our shores to restrict rain and showers to more Northern areas or not. Those that show this notbaly ECM will bring a slow cessataion of rain and wind from Southern areas later but probably not to the North. GFS takes us on a much closer excursion into High pressure with the clusters showing a variety of positions for this to lie while the operational and Control run takes High pressure to Eastern Europe and throwing a strong ridge back West to at least control part of the UK's weather in a colder continental drift. So all in all it's a pay your money and take your choice sort of option today between maintained unsettled and windy weather with rain and wintry showers, ala GEM and also UKMO as far as it goes to a slow build of High pressure to the South of the UK with more benign conditions and less cold air via ECM. As far as the GFS control and operational go I think I will rather take the route of the clusters in that High pressure will lie close to Southern Britain in 10-14 days rather than any feed from Europe though it is an interesting philosophy and not the first time it has been shown. So still another week of occasionally volatile weather to come and for some like me this morning a surprise snowfall is not out of the question almost anywhere in the chilly polar maritime incursions which look like dominating for a while yet. Issued at 08:30 Monday February 23rd 2015
  4. 4 points
    There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis. We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012. By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.
  5. 3 points
    Agree. The decent covering I had 3 weeks ago was good, was nice to see, but it was gone fairly quickly and it was in the early hours. You cant beat seeing snow that settles during the daylight hours. I only remember that happening once and that was in 2010 I think from memory when we had a red warning( few days before christmas). Overall I'm fairly happy with this winter, but that's only because last year was hell in terms of cold. At least I got to wake my 4 year old daughter up and sing "do you want to build a snowman" and to see her face when she looked out of the window was priceless!
  6. 3 points
    Rather optimistic for a warm(ish) March given the relative confidence in pressure building and the cool stratosphere encouraging a +AO. Of course warm in March could still be unsettled and zonal south westerlies.
  7. 3 points
    well its looking promising for the first week of march/spring as the signes are growing that the azores high could drift eastwards across our southern latitude. the last 3 days noaa 8-14 dayers suggest this progression, and thus lend weight to current op's fi suggestion of a higher pressure across our south, and whilst not exactly killing off the atlantic, at least has the tracks of the lows much further north. so less wet, milder, and not as breezy by the end of the next week? ie pretty decent early springlike weather. note how the azh drifts eastwards over the 3 days.
  8. 3 points
    Here's a photo of it, closest to laying snow we'll get haha.
  9. 3 points
    Nice surprise to wake up to. It's not much, but there's still plenty more showers on the radar!
  10. 3 points
    I'm more inclined to have faith in the potential height rise in the 10/15 day period than i was the last time this was progged. first half of march could deliver quite pleasant early spring conditions and the NWP could even keep the coldies interested as little cold pools are occasionally advected northwest on the odd run.
  11. 3 points
    I will associate this winter mainly with two things: 1. The return of "cold zonality". January, in particular, had three separate widespread snow events that were delivered via westerly winds. December and January had an exceptionally high frequency of thunder in the north and west of Scotland thanks to the incidence of cold polar maritime air flowing over the warm sea. 2. The absence of "deep cold". Our cold weather has been delivered mainly by a combination of cold west to north-west winds, and short-draw northerlies which had a lot of modification from old depression cores. There has been nothing of note from the east, or from well within the Arctic Circle.
  12. 3 points
    Actually temperature wise it was the midwest US that was hit hardest last year by the so called "polar vortex." That cold air then traveled over to the eastern seaboard . But the most brutal and sustained chill was centered on Chicago, St. Louis, Minny, etc. This winter the trough has been slightly further east. The eastern third of the country has been more at heart of the cold air plunges from Canada/Siberia. The midwest has also been affected by these cold blasts but they've had some warm spells that they didn't see hardly at all last year. Whereas this year the cold air has remained stationed over the east coast for longer periods.
  13. 3 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows growing signs of high pressure influence for southern areas by T+240 hours, this is probably the best indication yet from the ecm for a gradual change to more springlike benign conditions beyond day 10 from the south.
  14. 2 points
    heavy snow shower here, big flakes, and starting to settle
  15. 2 points
    Just had rain sleet hail wet snow plus one clap of thunder all in 15 mins ,just waiting for the rainbow .settling on some of the hills around here but most of the showers seem to be decaying as they run in land atleast some action today ,cheers .
  16. 2 points
    Rare occasion but snowing in Cardiff Bay!
  17. 2 points
    Well i wasnt expecting to see falling Snow this morning (very wet though) just when I thought winter had finished with us
  18. 2 points
  19. 2 points
    This mornings anomalies are showing a certain amount of conformity with ridging over the UK, weak trough Scandinavia and HP further east. In the ext period at T360 the development of the HP (weak trough removed) with the GEFS placing it further east than the ecm. This would seem to be conducive to a more WSW flow and warmer temps. EDIT I note the latter sentence is somewhat unclear. This applies if the ecm is correct and not the GEFS. Charts courtesy weatherbell
  20. 2 points
    Pretty snowy up on bodmin moor and on the A30 through devon this morning!
  21. 2 points
    Morning had some heavy snow here in bath about 730 and its staring again, very wet but nice to see! Fromey
  22. 2 points
    And there was me telling hubby it wasn't thunder, just his ancient ears picking up the sound of a lorry trundling down the road.
  23. 2 points
    If the forecast is correct jeth we could see a few more flakes today..
  24. 2 points
    Just started lashing snow here
  25. 2 points
    Radar lookong good now with some beefy showers incoming. Have a slight dusting on the cars here. Bitter cold out!
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