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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/02/15 in Posts

  1. fully disagree, if it cannot snow, late Feb onwards, lets have it settled and warm, even if not sunny, cannot understand how anyone can like gales and rain, assuming those that do are stuck indoors every day, every night
    10 points
  2. Good to see you've reconciled yourself Karl to the fact there's now little or no point in ramping up any further potential cold snaps/spells, at least none with any depth anyhow. In fact, it would appear at an extraordinary early stage that you're already championing the cause for anticyclonic conditions brought about courtesy of your old arch-enemy The Azores high. Yes, we all know March 2013 was one of the coldest in 50 odd years or so, but with the way this past season has panned out, it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat. Here's hoping the Azores will keep you waxing lyrical throughout the summer of 2015 with OTT comments re: Ireland and the UK going into the oven.
    5 points
  3. Would I want wind and rain or weather like the last couple of days with clear blue skies, pleasant daytime temperatures and overnight frosts? The later every time for me.
    5 points
  4. Good grief. That just spells unsociable conditions to me. Enjoy the outdoors. Can only realistically do that in nice and warm weather. It we can just be hermits and live inside watching the tv all year...
    5 points
  5. The main stormy period looks to be Sunday night into Monday, probably N.Ireland and northern Britain After the quiet lull of much of February it is all turning lively. There is a low heading over southern Britain on Friday Day, bringing rain and strong winds around it. COuld go a bit deeper and bring gales to SW and S.coast, also will the heavy rain turn wintry on the northern edge. Welsh hills look likely to see a bit of snow. Not much signal at this stage off the NMM SAturday is a cold day Sat night/Sunday, rain band from west, coming in against that cold air, wintry possibilities for north mainly. Sunday is a wintry day Sunday night into Monday worst of the winds in this 5 days spell as a low heads over the Northern Isles. So impact for N.Ireland, Scotland and N.England/N.Wales but fair way off. Could be snow for Scotland too
    3 points
  6. 2 points
  7. Well the US is a big country. So there's a wide variety of different regional climates and phenoma going on. Although the engine of the gulf and the lack of geographic barriers to northerly plunges of the artic stuff from Canada is a fortuitous set up and makes things interesting for the eastern 2/3rds of the country. However, I happen to live in the corner of the country where the weather is dull, predictable, and typically undramatic. If you think your country is "mega boring" weather/climate wise you'd certainly suffer as a weather enthusiast living in Southern California! All the chaotic weather they get in the midwest, east, and on the gulf is as foreign to me as it is to you.
    2 points
  8. even on a lousy day, still enjoy time lapses from Mr_Data
    2 points
  9. Can't quote back to all of you. I work 30 hours a week, have a season ticket, play football twice a week and end up in the pub or around local towns on both weekend evenings, nothing unsociable or hermit like about my life, I'm just used to all conditions in the outdoors. You can't beat a good bonechiller down the Bescot with a Bovril. However, I'm an adrenaline junky when it comes to weather. Do I want spells of gloom/sunny spell and high pressure for days and weeks on end? Absolutely not. If it's not going to snow, then it can be pleasanlty warm, but I want torrential downpours, wind, squall lines....interest. Look what they have in different parts of the US all year round. I can not think of any single thing worse than waking up in the middle of summer after a nice lie in and being physically stuck to your sheets or your clothing for the rest of the day whilst endless sunshine bakes down. You can't move for sweating, you can't sleep for sweating, you can't leave the house for burning - the only good thing to come of it, is a beer garden during the evening. Give me a November walk to work in driving cold rain and huge gusts of wind that take your breath away over....32C...humid plume conditions when the entire day is basically unbearable. My perfect conditions? Late November to late March of a combination of snow - a freeze - wild atlantic weather - wind storm - then repeat alternating. Then April to May of squally heavy showers, hailstorms, a couple of days where you can call it t-shirt weather, cut the grass and so on. May to September, 20c low humidity mornings followed by storms from 2-6pm and then an evening BBQ and I am, one completely happy human. The notion of just high pressure boredom during spring and summer is enough to send any enthusiast to sleep - especially when we have February's like this one. I'd sooner it snowed for 6 months of the year and then rained/was stormy for the other 6. But if I can't have that, then I want at least something exciting as the alternative. You only live once, why surround yourself in monotonous conditions all the time? I want action of all sorts during all parts of the year. Perhaps it's best I save enough money to purchase 4 homes around different corners of the US
    2 points
  10. Yep usable or less usable weather...? Wind and rain can do one as far as I'm concerned
    2 points
  11. Glad to see that even if it's not cold enough for snow, it's going to be very wet, windy, chilly and active between now and the end of Feb/early March. The last 2 weeks have been painfully dull for virtually ALL types of weather fans. If it's not going to be snowing, then I hope the rest of Feb, March, April are zonal with very wet and windy spells to keep us on our toes before the long boring model months of spring and summer arrive. I do hope we see plenty of Thunderstorms and if not a cool but very wet summer atlantic summer ahead.
    2 points
  12. Below is the March CET from 1659-2014, with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black. February is likely to finish somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5C. The average March following February in that range is 5.2C. The linear trend for the whole record is +0.41C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.1C. The linear trend since 1850 is +0.97C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.5C. The linear trend since 1950 is +2.02C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.8C. The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.01C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 7.0C. The linear trend over the last 30 years is +0.79C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 6.7C. The current 30 year mean (6.6C) is the joint warmest on record with the 30 years up to 2012 and 2010. Anything above 6.4C this March will take the 30 year mean up to 6.7C for the first time.
    2 points
  13. I will take that forecast.... And im 140-150 m higher up than this forecast location.....
    2 points
  14. 10C Last sub 2C March in 1883. Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.
    2 points
  15. Never thought I'd say this but this desperate search for anything remotely cold is really getting on my t*ts. now.
    2 points
  16. Wow so many toys out prams in the various winter related threads on NW. Seems everyone wants exceptional winters these days. Too much moaning and not enough banter makes NW very dull. You'd think it was the end of the world the way some are banging on. They sound like a bunch of spoilt weans. Wee shame so it is
    2 points
  17. Rain stopped now. Im off ro Edinburgh at weekend - yahoo !!
    2 points
  18. March CET averages and trivia 14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777) 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957) 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938) 8.4 ... 3rd warmest March (1997) 8.3 ... 4th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012) 8.2 ... 7th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961) 7.6 ... 2014 CET 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 6.5 ... mean of 21st century (2001-2014) 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990 5.3 ... mean of all 356 years (1659-2014) 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900) 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800) 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700) 2.8 ... Coldest March of 20th century (1962) 2.7 ... Coldest March since 1892 (2013) ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748) 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785) 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674) 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st) 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013 -3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965) -6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845) Enter your forecast by the end of Saturday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Tues 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.
    1 point
  19. Relative reported a loud rumble of thunder this morning between 7am and 8am. I get up at about 07:50 so must have just missed whatever it was!
    1 point
  20. Cornish pasty and chips coming soon ,6 c here ...
    1 point
  21. 1 point
  22. There is no such thing as bad weather just bad clothing :-)
    1 point
  23. Just had another heavy fall in the slippery mud going down to the horses field...I am naturally well padded but still of an age where any fall hurts and not just my pride Hate this wet and thick slippery mud....dry sunny days, preferably cold and frosty or plenty of deep snow for me ...neither on the cards for yet another year....moan over ...
    1 point
  24. Sums up this winter for me anyway. Just so bloody average overall with this month being very disappointing.
    1 point
  25. Horrible driving to Carlisle this morning , dryer now but a cold breeze .....
    1 point
  26. Still chugging on nicely now just east of Yeovil and west of Swindon.. Looks to have faded slightly on the southern end.
    1 point
  27. This year seems to be flying by, especially when you think that Easter is only 4 weeks away from the date of that chart above.
    1 point
  28. Can tell length of daylight is increasing just by the length of the daytime time-lapses I have been taking. They have been gradually getting longer.
    1 point
  29. Considering most people here are from UK, you should most certainly also look at AMO, AMM and AWP.
    1 point
  30. Thanks Roger and J10 for doing all the legwork.Great stuff I'm getting my guess in early. My feeling is that if February hasn't given us our first below average month for some time then March definitely will. Perhaps not by a great margin but.... My guess is 6.3c
    1 point
  31. Text in bold, pretty much sums up this winter overall. Lets hope the models carry on showing some calmer options, esp as march starts, time to feel springlike. Not to early to hot otherwise the GW brigade will start appearing in the tabloids.
    1 point
  32. The JISAO PDO value for January is out, and at +2.45 it was by far the most positive January on record. As well as that, the last 5, 4, 3 and 2 month periods have all been the most positive on record. This 30 year cold/-ve phase is looking very much in doubt now.
    1 point
  33. Terrible end to a terrible winter by the looks of things. As with the whole of the past 15 months there is nothing in the outlook to look forward to. Just another northerly being cut off, before it gets going, by cold zonal dross which will give exactly the same rubbish to NE Scotland as earlier in the winter: endless wind, little frost, bone dry when it's cold enough for snow, rain when it's not Cold zonality is good for nothing. Windy all the time with sub-5C maxima but struggling to get below freezing at night. It gives nothing akin to a winter wonderland. It's just awful and tediously boring in stark contrast to the high pressure last week when frosts were achieved with ease and the ground white morning after morning despite maxes reaching 8-11C.
    1 point
  34. Wrong, the coldest winters ever in the US were 76/77 77/78 and 78/79. Now, give me those three winters in the UK any day! It's all about the jet streams wave length which this year has been long but in the late 70's was short so that both the Eastern US and Western Europe got severe cold. Andy
    1 point
  35. Interesting write-up on the earthquake. Only one other mag 7 in the last hundred years, exactly the same date but 48 years ago!
    1 point
  36. I'm sure it is no coincidence that Nick Sussex commonly (and disgustedly) terms it the 'limpet' vortex. Only thing that will shift it.
    1 point
  37. Bbc, netweather, weather outlook, weather channel looking at maybe some wintry interest this friday through wednesday next week.... 11c in ashton this afternoon, positively tropical..... Was gorgeous yesterday, bright blue skies but wind made it really cold.... Tomorrow lookslike an indoor painting day.... Suprised to see how many snowdrops out in glossop/ashton/ denton today..... Mine in garden arent showing yet.....pate n pie in pub in padfield earlier....stuffed.... Yesterday made pancake canelloni with ham, cheese, spinach and homemade bechamel.... Then for dessert pancakes with nutella!
    1 point
  38. This thread has gone a bit quiet - any chance of an update from one of the experts on this subject as we head towards March?
    1 point
  39. The animation below shows changes in December multi-year ice from December 2011 to December 2014.Huge increase in thick Arctic ice since 2011 ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2014_52.gif
    1 point
  40. Spin it however you like but it doesn't imply decent snowfall for the vast majority.Being cold for colds sake does not excite me particularly
    1 point
  41. It's still winter isn't it? Naturally spring is "on hold". But don't worry, it'll be here soon enough. It really is only a matter of time. Looks like february might have a decent shout at coming in as a "below average" winter month. It even managed to deliver snow to Bournemouth!
    1 point
  42. Thanks for the links on Rossby waves! Understanding these waves is definitely a good step in order to get a grasp of the physical background of the various teleconnections, both explaining tropical-extratropical interactions as well as stratospheric impacts. For now I will do my first teleconnective forecast in this thread, attempting to connect the teleconnections with what the models are showing. So basically it will be a complementary forecast, because teleconnections may explain why a given model solution is likely to occur or not at all. First, we will take a look at the current picture (of the Northern Half), to see what kind of patterns we are able to identify beforehand. Current picture For showing the current picture the latest GFS analysis will be used. GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights, 12Z run (Analysis). What can be seen is that there is a 500 hPa ridge over Europe originating from the Azores high. This pattern has occurred more this winter, most evidently during last week and the week before that. Also, a repetitive pattern can be seen over the US with a West Coast ridge along with an East-US trough. This pattern has been responsible for the severe drought that has occurred over California over the last few years. Model forecast for week out Looking at a week from now, the pattern is forecast to shift slightly, as can be seen on the GFS and ECMWF runs for 7 days from now: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh1681.gif (ECMWF) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1681.gif (GFS) Both models show that the ridging toward Europe will dissipate, giving way to a more zonal flow and more low pressure activity (especially at the northern parts of the UK). However, the Azores high remains quite prominently positioned to the west of Spain (slightly west of its current position). Over the US, the same pattern continues to exist, though the West Coast ridge seems to be positioned somewhat more to the west on both models and the ridge is slightly less strong on the ECMWF. Teleconnections MJO The MJO has been rather inactive over the past few weeks. This can also be seen on the GFS ensemble forecast for the MJO: GFS ensemble MJO forecast for the next two weeks. The operational forecast is in green. Based on this (lack of a) signal, the MJO will not be a significant guide for the weather over the next few weeks. This is confirmed by the CPC (Climate prediction center), quoting from their discussion: Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ Based on this, the MJO can best not be used as a parameter in a forecast. ENSO Next, we turn our vision to ENSO (contains El Nino and La Nina). We are experiencing positive SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the Pacific, but they are not placed at places which definitely suggest an El Nino is going on. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as observed over the past few weeks. There is a large swath of positive SST anomalies near California (warmer than average SSTS), but this anomaly is not directly associated to an El Nino event. What can be said, though, is that the observed anomalies are positive, which suggest that a very weak El Nino signature could be present in the ocean. However, the atmosphere has been rather reluctant to responding to this so far, behaving itself more La Nina-like. This has consequences for the next teleconnection, being the GWO. GWO The GWO has been rather La Nina-like over the winter so far (negative AAM values), and after an inactive period the GWO is forecast to go negative again (as forecasted by successive runs of the GFS): GFS GWO forecast for the next couple of days. After going to phase 2 (which means the atmosphere is losing AAM via mountain torque events), the GWO enters phase 2 at quite significant amplitude. According to the tutorial above, phase 2 is accompanied by northward momentum transport (possibly to balance out the shortage of AAM developed at the midlatitudes). Taking a look at the anomaly composites belonging to that phase, one gets the following pattern: GFS 500 hPa anomalies belonging to GWO phase 2 in February. It is important to focus on the overall pattern, not the details. What can be seen in the analogy is that the Azores high is on average stronger than normal (in this phase). However, it is also much further west than its usual position, being located near the east coast of the US. Also, there appears to be a strong ridge to the west of the US. Finally, deeper than average troughing appears to exist near Iceland (positive NAO signal). Comparing this to the actual situation (so the situation discussed at the beginning of this post) both the Pacific ridge and the Azores high are more dominant than normal in both cases. However, on the GWO analogy both ridges are located further to the west of the current position, meaning the whole pattern would have to retrogress some (move westward) in order to match this pattern. Stratosphere At the time of writing, little appears to be going on in the stratosphere, with little wave activity being noted. The current structure of the stratosphere (at least at 100 hPa) matches the synoptic signature at 500 hPa reasonably well. This can be seen below: 100 hPa heights as analysed by the ECMWF (from yesterday). A clear ridge can be identified over the West Coast of the US. Furthermore, a ridge is also visible over Europe (isolines pointing poleward). A trough can be seen over the central and eastern parts of the US as well, along with a split vortex with one part over Greenland and another over Siberia. If one looks 10 days later (so 9 days from now), the following can be seen: 100 hPa heights for 10 days out as forecasted by the ECMWF (from yesterday). The signals for a ridge over the US, and the ridge over Europe seem to have dissipated. On the other hand, the split vortex signature is still visible. Furthermore, there is little to note except a weak troughing signal over Europe, but I do not think that signal is very significant. Back to models: 8-14 500 hPa NOAA forecast Usually a good signal to see whether any pattern change is on the way, regardless of connections, is the 500 hPa anomalies as assessed by NOAA. Check the image below: NOAA 8-14 day 500 hPa heights (green) and anomalies (red/blue). The first thing that comes to attention is that the ridge over the West Coast of the US is no longer forecast to persist. In fact, it is expected to move to the west (i.e. retrogress) toward the Pacific, which is in agreement with the GWO signal. Funnily enough, NOAA has just picked up this signal, as can be read in their daily discussion: Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html The major pattern change that NOAA is advertising is the shift of the West Coast ridge toward the west over the Pacific. On the other hand, the Azores ridge appears to be willing to ridge toward Europe again (isohypses pointing northeastward in Europe). This is not in agreement with the GWO signal, but it does match with what we have seen over the past few weeks. Conclusion At first hand, there seems to be a shift toward more zonal flow over Europe. Some teleconnections, like the MJO, have not yet been able to add anything in terms of a forecast. However, interesting signals have emerged over the Pacific with the shift of the West Coast ridge toward the Pacific, which is in agreement with GWO signals. Signals for Azores high retrogression (which could be expected via the GWO) have not yet showed up. It would be interesting to see whether models will pick up on this signal on later runs. It has become a rather lengthy post for a first analysis, there is just too much that can be told and looked at . I hope this analysis will give you some idea of how the pattern will evolve. Any remarks or corrections are very welcome. Also, do not hesitate to post your own analysis! Sources: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-71 http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/comp.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
    1 point
  43. 1 point
  44. I will be just as interested next October as I was October gone! No tool is 100% right and even though this season it didn't live up to what we all hoped I don't think it's right to say oh well I won't bother with it next year! It is no different to any other tool and should not be taken as anything else otherwise we may as well not bother looking at sst, qbo, solar output, mjo etc. the OPI should be viewed like all those other factors and I for one will be watching to see how the OPI fares over the next few years!
    1 point
  45. I think it's worth pointing out that the authors were themselves doubting the figure that they arrived at. Some other research, based on a Zonality index, contradicted the signal. I managed to read the cached version of their paper when it was let slip on another site - I'm still puzzled by the time span chosen when they were using the Meteociel reanalysis archive. There's more than a hundred years on there, could a longer term analysis have yielded less robust results.
    1 point
  46. As was said at the outset this is a new tool with not just snow cover as its main predictor. Come october I am sure we will see a whole new set solar influences as we come of a prolonged maximum ( not expected) which is likely to fall rapidly once it goes into decline. I for one will be following the OPI with great interest
    1 point
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