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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/02/15 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    Two notable PM shots next week on ECM bring -5c uppers through the UK, that should ensure wintry weather from Manchester northwards with snowfalls on hills and even lower down. Pressure then builds strongly from the SW matching the MetO view of high pressure into March, and it would be a warm high pressure as well with some very springlike conditions. So that's my next fortnight sorted then, heavy snow showers and gales next week, sunshine and 15c week after......BANK lol Andy
  2. 4 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move slowly East across England and Wales today followed by another complex wave depression running East over Southern England tomorrow. A showery Westerly flow will veer NW tomorrow over the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become drier and more settled later THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow undulating North and South in the vicinity of the UK over the next 10 days or so, blowing very strongly at times. late in the period there are sme suggestions it will move back North of the UK as High pressure builds from the South once more. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a lengthy period of very volatile westerly winds across the UK with fast moving bands of rain then showers, sometimes wintry moving through all areas at time. then later in the period High pressure develops from the South with fine and more settled conditions developing later with fine days and some overnight frosts especially over the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is similar in type over the first week to 10 days as the operational but is less excited about the return of more settled conditions later, in fact it shows a largely unchanged period other than less windy weather with rain at times from off the Atlantic still dominant over most areas in temperatures closer to average.. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the likelihood of much more of a theme towards High pressure being likely in two weeks time with the centre likely to be once more close to Southern or Western Britain rather than anywhere else. Just a 20% group suggest a cold NW flow over the UK with the chance of rain or showers and a few more with Northern areas remaining unsettled in a westerly flow with some rain. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strong NW then Westerly flow as we move into the first half of the week with wintry showers followed by less cold weather with spells of rain shown towards Day 6 today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a typical period of Westerly winds with occasional troughs swinging East across the UK in sometimes rather cold air with wintry showers. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows a generally rather cold and unsettled period with West or NW winds with rain followed by spells of wintry showers especially across the North. Some brief drier interludes will pass West to East through the UK at times too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too show very unsettled weather with periods of rain followed by cold weather with squally wintry showers in NW winds, the pattern repeated several times over the next 6-8 days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too shows unsettled week to come in strong West or NW winds with rain and wintry showers the shape of things to come. then later in the run High pressure builds North in response to the Jet flow returning North of the UK, gradually settling things down on Week 2 especially across the South where it will feel less cold than the week to come. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are increasingly showing the likelihood of High pressure building back North from the South as we move into the second week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.0. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.6 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.3 pts over GFS's 59.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.4 pts over GFS at 40.1. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS There is an increasing signal from the longer term models that the expected period of very volatile weather will be in place for about a week before High pressure regains some influence across the UK from the South or SW. Before that happens all models suggest a very windy period with westerly gales and rain at times alternating with more NW winds and showery weather when the weather will be more showery. Wintry showers are expected over all high ground and it will feel quite unpleasant at times. Then towards the end of next week High pressure from the Azores region looks likely to build back as the Jet stream pushes back North of the UK setting up a probably North/South split in the weather with the North retaining some unsettled weather with rain at times but less cold while the South sees dry conditions with variable cloud, average temperatures and the possibility of patchy night frosts. This is a new trend within the models today but has been hinted at over recent runs by various members and it is a fast growing trend. We must be mindful though that this is 7-10 days ahead and with a lot of weather to get through before any of that becomes apparent a lot can and possibly will change between runs now and then. What is unlikely is that apart from transient snowfalls of a showery nature there is little likelihood of any meaningful wintry disruption over the period with frosts and fog also hard to come by in a widespread fashion over the period. All in all very typical late February/Early March weather. Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 18th 2015
  3. 3 points
    I recommend people to use some kind of a winter index to gauge just how wintry a winter has been. It's not full proof but I find it a pretty good guide. Winter 2012-13 was pretty decent here, there was a severe cold outbreak across most of Europe during first half of February 2012 which eastern parts of the UK were affected. Last 7 winters 2008-09: 105 2009-10: 197 2010-11: 119 2011-12: 47 2012-13: 102 2013-14: 7 2014-15: about 78 An average of 94. Compare to the previous 7 winters prior to this grouping: 44 Winters of recent times have been more wintrier than those of late 80s to mid 2000s despite have in effect a non winter in 2013-14.
  4. 3 points
    The main stormy period looks to be Sunday night into Monday, probably N.Ireland and northern Britain After the quiet lull of much of February it is all turning lively. There is a low heading over southern Britain on Friday Day, bringing rain and strong winds around it. COuld go a bit deeper and bring gales to SW and S.coast, also will the heavy rain turn wintry on the northern edge. Welsh hills look likely to see a bit of snow. Not much signal at this stage off the NMM SAturday is a cold day Sat night/Sunday, rain band from west, coming in against that cold air, wintry possibilities for north mainly. Sunday is a wintry day Sunday night into Monday worst of the winds in this 5 days spell as a low heads over the Northern Isles. So impact for N.Ireland, Scotland and N.England/N.Wales but fair way off. Could be snow for Scotland too
  5. 2 points
    Below is the March CET from 1659-2014, with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black. February is likely to finish somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5C. The average March following February in that range is 5.2C. The linear trend for the whole record is +0.41C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.1C. The linear trend since 1850 is +0.97C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.5C. The linear trend since 1950 is +2.02C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.8C. The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.01C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 7.0C. The linear trend over the last 30 years is +0.79C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 6.7C. The current 30 year mean (6.6C) is the joint warmest on record with the 30 years up to 2012 and 2010. Anything above 6.4C this March will take the 30 year mean up to 6.7C for the first time.
  6. 2 points
    Fyvie Castle in Aberdeenshire hit 16c, 60.8f yesterday making it the likely highest temperature of February Every month this winter has had a high of 16c December 16.0C Prestatyn (Denbighshire) January 16.5C Exeter Airport February Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire 16c - provisional high for Scotland this winter Last winter both January and February failed to get above 14.9c
  7. 2 points
    I will take that forecast.... And im 140-150 m higher up than this forecast location.....
  8. 2 points
    GEFS 00z mean shows a gradual slackening of the very unsettled cold zonal pattern from around T+240 from the south west and this process continues further into FI with a north / south split developing as the south becomes more settled and northern uk stays Atlantic driven but less intense, by the end of the first week in March, high pressure is taking control of most areas.
  9. 2 points
    10C Last sub 2C March in 1883. Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.
  10. 2 points
    Never thought I'd say this but this desperate search for anything remotely cold is really getting on my t*ts. now.
  11. 2 points
    Wow so many toys out prams in the various winter related threads on NW. Seems everyone wants exceptional winters these days. Too much moaning and not enough banter makes NW very dull. You'd think it was the end of the world the way some are banging on. They sound like a bunch of spoilt weans. Wee shame so it is
  12. 2 points
    Rain stopped now. Im off ro Edinburgh at weekend - yahoo !!
  13. 2 points
    Agree Frosty, if I lived on a hill oop norf, I would be excited/ love PM air, but I live at low level south, and never delivers for me, I either want a true beast or Spring weather now
  14. 2 points
    The anomaly signal for rising MSLP by mid-March is now looking stronger as of this morning's GloSea run (and thus reflected in latest UKMO public forecast wording). GS5 aligns itself steadily closer with the last EC Monthly prognosis, albeit the latter sees (sizeable area of) HP becoming more dominant to SW/W, whereas the UKMO model favours anticyclonic conditions establishing more centrally across the UK. So, moderate confidence now in this sort of benign outcome by mid-month, but very little confidence on associated temperature regime (given divergent signals for the block positioning). Either way, some increasing optimism for a more settled, drier story emerging by mid-March but insufficient confidence, for now, to get too excited by it just yet.
  15. 1 point
    Now forget snow and stars, the aurora is worth more than anything.
  16. 1 point
    This year seems to be flying by, especially when you think that Easter is only 4 weeks away from the date of that chart above.
  17. 1 point
    Can tell length of daylight is increasing just by the length of the daytime time-lapses I have been taking. They have been gradually getting longer.
  18. 1 point
  19. 1 point
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    Terrible end to a terrible winter by the looks of things. As with the whole of the past 15 months there is nothing in the outlook to look forward to. Just another northerly being cut off, before it gets going, by cold zonal dross which will give exactly the same rubbish to NE Scotland as earlier in the winter: endless wind, little frost, bone dry when it's cold enough for snow, rain when it's not Cold zonality is good for nothing. Windy all the time with sub-5C maxima but struggling to get below freezing at night. It gives nothing akin to a winter wonderland. It's just awful and tediously boring in stark contrast to the high pressure last week when frosts were achieved with ease and the ground white morning after morning despite maxes reaching 8-11C.
  22. 1 point
    Its worth interpreting the GWO phase composites in the same way as one might interpret agreement of the NOAA upper height anomalies and the variance in scope they still can offer for surface pressure features. As per these upper height anomaly forecasts, we should be equally careful in not taking GWO composite charts too literally at face value - but interpret them taking into account the large scale number of drivers operating at any given time within the hemisphere. Activity within, and the overall state of, the stratospheric polar field also play a large part in how we interpret the GWO composites. Clearly within any amplified pattern context, the strength and orientation of the polar vortex will determine how much meridional forcing can be achieved within the boundary of the polar front jet. This especially applies to the dominant La Nina type -ve tendency AAM state that has existed throughout the winter, and looks set to continue for the foreseeable future Why is this? Much as regularly posted on the MOD thread, a Nina type atmospheric state in the winter season supports the development of sub tropical ridging into mid latitudes - and a prevailing +NAO. Easterly wind surges in the tropics pump up these ridges and the extra strength we have kept seeing in the Azores High has limited the extent of amplification potential along the PFJ. It has only been when the stratospheric vortex was displaced our side of the pole at the turn of the month, that we have seen more sustained amplification along the PFJ. But its worth remembering that it is the same GWO cycle through -ve MT stage 8/1, which is the signal to retrogress the pattern upstream in the Pacific (withdraw the Azores ridge westwards in the Atlantic) that occurred in late January, prior to the sustained amplification into February, as we are seeing right now in the modelling. In fact the cycle was initiated in mid late December and occurred a second time in mid January before this. Each time through the course of this winter has seen a different amplification strength and longevity - but the NH sequence of upstream retrogression has near enough identically been in accord with GWO winter month composites under GWO Phase 1/2 -ve AAM momentum. With the caveat that AAM showed signs of Nino breakthrough into GWO Phases 4/5 after mid Jan. This led to a +EAMT which gave some hopes towards a partial resurgence at least of the autumn Siberian High SIA/SCE -AO feedback loops which went AWOL into the start of winter We saw this late January http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2015012900-0-6.png Whilst the GWO orbit was headed right to where we are now. Compared to this http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015021812/ECH1-96.GIF?18-0 Overall similarities in terms of the westward retraction of the Azores High, and the more NW/SE axis of troughing in the Atlantic from the upper vortex which is the result of tanking -AAM in the atmosphere, with Pacific Rossby wave activity initiated through -ve MT occuring across the US as the GWO orbits into Phase 1 And we have a near replica copy of predicted GWO orbit imminently, as late January, through another fairly high amplitude orbit Phase 1/2 to reflect these synoptics http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png Look however at the quite different ways that the polar profile is modelled in each of those meteocil charts. This has implications for how the jet axis will behave in the Atlantic and impacts on our surface weather. The difference this time is that we do not have that displaced vortex signal to sustain any upstream amplification signal feeding downstream as the Azores High retreats westwards. Also, we have more stubborn easterly trade winds underpinning the strength of the Azores High, and correspondingly greater westerly momentum transport at mid to higher latitudes. This means that amplification along the PFJ is limited this time around and whilst we see a persistence of a NW-SE jet axis, with repeated PM incursions suggested, we do not expect to see the jet digging N-S and a pronounced amplified Atlantic ridge on a sustained basis such as we saw into early February with charts like this. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2015020200-0-6.png So, in summary, same GWO orbit cycle at very similar amplitude to previously- but different surface implications for the UK in terms of how much, and how sustained the jet amplification is that verifies. Both instances however, fit perfectly within the GWO Phase 1/2 composite expectations for Jan/Feb Shortening wave lengths into Spring, under the same negative tendency atmospheric patterns, start to have different implications for amplification behaviour and also surface positioning of the same Atlantic ridging profile of the winter. But that is best discussed and illustrated if and when we come to it Updated early March : Phase 1/2/3 GWO orbit losing weak/moderate amplitude and heading back to no coherent phasing and little forcing on patterns. Much as was seen towards the end of the first week of February (following polar vortex displacement). This, in conjunction with continued +AO profile and MJO tropical signal supports return of mid latitude ridging as signalled by models. Indicated lack of frictional and MT's highly reduce the chances of significant amplification in the meantime and will continue to support and strengthen mid latitude ridging. On this basis, expectations of the jet stream remaining to the north of these ridges in tandem with +AO mean that any attempted breakdown from the north is going to be hard to achieve into the medium term in many southern part of the UK. Updated 5/3/15 : Interesting changes to the AAM budget which suggests a shift towards +ve tendency. This change quite likely ocean> atmosphere linked through the latest Kelvin wave in the Pacific and the implications for the ENSO regions in the Pacific (and the MJO). The GWO is forecast to break through Phase 5 into low amplitude Phases 6 and 7. This signals a modest +EAMT, and albeit only low amplitude GWO forcing suggested at the moment, it should still be enough for some warming in the stratosphere this side of the pole as a consequence of the Asian MT wave breaking activity. In tandem with MJO phasing, it gives support for blocking towards Scandinavia which the models are picking up on. The coming days may well increase this signal to a higher amplitude and further increase confidence for blocking This was exactly what I was looking for a month or so back to provide a much more interesting finish to winter. 5 to 6 weeks later on, the potential for cold is clearly blunted and offset by much greater insolation. March 2013 was exceptional because the Siberian feedbacks were already evident in our weather patterns in the heart of winter - hence the very deep cold pooling which occurred. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png
  23. 1 point
    Thanks for the links on Rossby waves! Understanding these waves is definitely a good step in order to get a grasp of the physical background of the various teleconnections, both explaining tropical-extratropical interactions as well as stratospheric impacts. For now I will do my first teleconnective forecast in this thread, attempting to connect the teleconnections with what the models are showing. So basically it will be a complementary forecast, because teleconnections may explain why a given model solution is likely to occur or not at all. First, we will take a look at the current picture (of the Northern Half), to see what kind of patterns we are able to identify beforehand. Current picture For showing the current picture the latest GFS analysis will be used. GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights, 12Z run (Analysis). What can be seen is that there is a 500 hPa ridge over Europe originating from the Azores high. This pattern has occurred more this winter, most evidently during last week and the week before that. Also, a repetitive pattern can be seen over the US with a West Coast ridge along with an East-US trough. This pattern has been responsible for the severe drought that has occurred over California over the last few years. Model forecast for week out Looking at a week from now, the pattern is forecast to shift slightly, as can be seen on the GFS and ECMWF runs for 7 days from now: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh1681.gif (ECMWF) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1681.gif (GFS) Both models show that the ridging toward Europe will dissipate, giving way to a more zonal flow and more low pressure activity (especially at the northern parts of the UK). However, the Azores high remains quite prominently positioned to the west of Spain (slightly west of its current position). Over the US, the same pattern continues to exist, though the West Coast ridge seems to be positioned somewhat more to the west on both models and the ridge is slightly less strong on the ECMWF. Teleconnections MJO The MJO has been rather inactive over the past few weeks. This can also be seen on the GFS ensemble forecast for the MJO: GFS ensemble MJO forecast for the next two weeks. The operational forecast is in green. Based on this (lack of a) signal, the MJO will not be a significant guide for the weather over the next few weeks. This is confirmed by the CPC (Climate prediction center), quoting from their discussion: Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ Based on this, the MJO can best not be used as a parameter in a forecast. ENSO Next, we turn our vision to ENSO (contains El Nino and La Nina). We are experiencing positive SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the Pacific, but they are not placed at places which definitely suggest an El Nino is going on. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as observed over the past few weeks. There is a large swath of positive SST anomalies near California (warmer than average SSTS), but this anomaly is not directly associated to an El Nino event. What can be said, though, is that the observed anomalies are positive, which suggest that a very weak El Nino signature could be present in the ocean. However, the atmosphere has been rather reluctant to responding to this so far, behaving itself more La Nina-like. This has consequences for the next teleconnection, being the GWO. GWO The GWO has been rather La Nina-like over the winter so far (negative AAM values), and after an inactive period the GWO is forecast to go negative again (as forecasted by successive runs of the GFS): GFS GWO forecast for the next couple of days. After going to phase 2 (which means the atmosphere is losing AAM via mountain torque events), the GWO enters phase 2 at quite significant amplitude. According to the tutorial above, phase 2 is accompanied by northward momentum transport (possibly to balance out the shortage of AAM developed at the midlatitudes). Taking a look at the anomaly composites belonging to that phase, one gets the following pattern: GFS 500 hPa anomalies belonging to GWO phase 2 in February. It is important to focus on the overall pattern, not the details. What can be seen in the analogy is that the Azores high is on average stronger than normal (in this phase). However, it is also much further west than its usual position, being located near the east coast of the US. Also, there appears to be a strong ridge to the west of the US. Finally, deeper than average troughing appears to exist near Iceland (positive NAO signal). Comparing this to the actual situation (so the situation discussed at the beginning of this post) both the Pacific ridge and the Azores high are more dominant than normal in both cases. However, on the GWO analogy both ridges are located further to the west of the current position, meaning the whole pattern would have to retrogress some (move westward) in order to match this pattern. Stratosphere At the time of writing, little appears to be going on in the stratosphere, with little wave activity being noted. The current structure of the stratosphere (at least at 100 hPa) matches the synoptic signature at 500 hPa reasonably well. This can be seen below: 100 hPa heights as analysed by the ECMWF (from yesterday). A clear ridge can be identified over the West Coast of the US. Furthermore, a ridge is also visible over Europe (isolines pointing poleward). A trough can be seen over the central and eastern parts of the US as well, along with a split vortex with one part over Greenland and another over Siberia. If one looks 10 days later (so 9 days from now), the following can be seen: 100 hPa heights for 10 days out as forecasted by the ECMWF (from yesterday). The signals for a ridge over the US, and the ridge over Europe seem to have dissipated. On the other hand, the split vortex signature is still visible. Furthermore, there is little to note except a weak troughing signal over Europe, but I do not think that signal is very significant. Back to models: 8-14 500 hPa NOAA forecast Usually a good signal to see whether any pattern change is on the way, regardless of connections, is the 500 hPa anomalies as assessed by NOAA. Check the image below: NOAA 8-14 day 500 hPa heights (green) and anomalies (red/blue). The first thing that comes to attention is that the ridge over the West Coast of the US is no longer forecast to persist. In fact, it is expected to move to the west (i.e. retrogress) toward the Pacific, which is in agreement with the GWO signal. Funnily enough, NOAA has just picked up this signal, as can be read in their daily discussion: Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html The major pattern change that NOAA is advertising is the shift of the West Coast ridge toward the west over the Pacific. On the other hand, the Azores ridge appears to be willing to ridge toward Europe again (isohypses pointing northeastward in Europe). This is not in agreement with the GWO signal, but it does match with what we have seen over the past few weeks. Conclusion At first hand, there seems to be a shift toward more zonal flow over Europe. Some teleconnections, like the MJO, have not yet been able to add anything in terms of a forecast. However, interesting signals have emerged over the Pacific with the shift of the West Coast ridge toward the Pacific, which is in agreement with GWO signals. Signals for Azores high retrogression (which could be expected via the GWO) have not yet showed up. It would be interesting to see whether models will pick up on this signal on later runs. It has become a rather lengthy post for a first analysis, there is just too much that can be told and looked at . I hope this analysis will give you some idea of how the pattern will evolve. Any remarks or corrections are very welcome. Also, do not hesitate to post your own analysis! Sources: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-71 http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/comp.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
  24. 1 point
    I will be just as interested next October as I was October gone! No tool is 100% right and even though this season it didn't live up to what we all hoped I don't think it's right to say oh well I won't bother with it next year! It is no different to any other tool and should not be taken as anything else otherwise we may as well not bother looking at sst, qbo, solar output, mjo etc. the OPI should be viewed like all those other factors and I for one will be watching to see how the OPI fares over the next few years!
  25. 1 point
    I think it's worth pointing out that the authors were themselves doubting the figure that they arrived at. Some other research, based on a Zonality index, contradicted the signal. I managed to read the cached version of their paper when it was let slip on another site - I'm still puzzled by the time span chosen when they were using the Meteociel reanalysis archive. There's more than a hundred years on there, could a longer term analysis have yielded less robust results.
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