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Showing content with the highest reputation on 31/01/15 in all areas

  1. 23 points
    To be fair knocker, its difficult to know what you meant as is difficult to interpret your one liner without any other explanation.The last five weeks of model watching has showed me that t240 charts are useless atm when evolutions are popping up in the t192 range. A little bit of explanation or extrapolation would have been better imho.
  2. 17 points
    Yep, they sure are, but at that time frame the Day 10 ECM chart has as much chance of verifying as me going on a date with Angelina Jolie. Meanwhile, back in the real world... Cracking Day 5 ECM + GFS charts for all cold lovers, and in the meantime the possibility of a few Snow showers lapping onto Eastern Coasts, and maybe spreading a little inland at times too. Enjoy.
  3. 15 points
    Not sure why the cold fans are focusing on a possible less cold, dry, possibly cloudy high in a weeks time or so, when theres much more in the way of cold and snow potential inthe immediate future.
  4. 15 points
    The gfs is trying to ridge and link up into Scandinavia which if north and north east enough would bring an easterly most models have shown this over the last few days. So like you hunt for the azores mild zonal the others are just showing what they see.
  5. 13 points
    Mucka, you may of cherry picked the chart at the earlier timeframe, but the fantasy island chart is backed up by 4 others almost as good and in total 11 split the vortex by 360hr. i remember Tamara posting a couple of days back the GWO would be favorable around 15 days, plus the lower strat is now warming and a couple of runs have shown the mjo moving to phase 8. Could be very interesting, this spell might just be the starter and there may not be a break before the main course.
  6. 12 points
    Just looked at the 12Z ensembles and what is noticeable is the greater scatter has returned. I thought the 06Z ensembles were trending towards the operationals with less bitterly cold runs. However these have returned on the 12Z. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png Even at +192 on the 12Z ECM we have very cold air just to the E of the UK. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015013112/ECM0-192.GIF?31-0 So my outlook is I haven't a clue and frankly not too bothered because im more focussed on the next few days.
  7. 12 points
    Morning, great Mid week winter charts for much of Europe, extensive low heights to the south and rising pressure to the North west. Cold circulation now more than likely to affect the Southeast of Britain with NEly flow and 850mb uppers -10c not far from the SE coast, so the snow potential increases in this region and less so in the west as the projected low now seems to be less of a problem for the Southwest and Wales. Beyond mid -week,ECM seems dissipate and remove the South European Low rather quickly, I think this will be too progressive and corrected this evening.Now, a prolonging of the low pressure over Europe will be crucial to any extention of the British Isles cold spell next week . Probabaly a bit marginal for snow at the moment for some of you but the cold will be well established in 48 hours. C
  8. 12 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will blow down across the UK over the next 48hrs with various showery troughs feeding South at times too. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold in the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out somewhat to a WNW to ESE flow just South of the UK later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold weather hanging in across much of the UK, particularly the South as pressure builds towards and over the NW later next week tilting the winds towards the NE and replacing the current wintry showers in the North more towards the East and SE later next week. Frosts and dry bright weather will be endorsed elsewhere later next week. Then in week 2 the High over the NW finally sinks SE across the UK and on into Europe with milder SW winds for all then last to reach the SE. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is even more dogged in maintaining cold in parts of the UK with the South never leaving cold through much of week 2 either as High pressure is held over the North and cold East winds blow for longer over the South with some wintry showers in places. the end of the run sees all areas more unsettled but certainly not warm as cold pockets of air remain close to or over the UK. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 760/40 split in High pressure ending up in a position to the NW or West of the UK in 15 days time with further cold weather in North or NE winds across the UK. The 40% takes up options around milder Westerly winds taking control with High pressure to the South and SE. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show cold weather across the UK next week as High pressure to the West of the UK edges in closer to the West and North early next week. Wintry showers look like becoming less prevalent away from the SE as winds fall lighter but with sharp frosts at night almost everywhere. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex pressure pattern under cold and unstable North winds. There are various troughs featured moving South in the flow but this morning they are shown to be mostly away from land either to the West or East of the UK probably meaning a lot of dry, bright and cold weather away from windward coasts where sleet or snow showers continue likely. GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of next week as a ridge extends East from it across the UK sinking South later. So wintry showers early in the week should be replaced by largely dry, bright and cold weather with hard frosts for many before milder air reaches the North on strengthening Westerly winds later. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the Northerly feed going throughout the run this morning with further disturbances running South in the flow delivering enhanced wintry showers of sleet and snow at times chiefly but not exclusively over coastal areas in the West, North and East especially in the east towards the middle of next week as winds turn NE for a while. ECM ECM this morning also shows another week of cold weather across the UK before a moderation in conditions under Atlantic WNW'lies develop by the end of the weekend. Last to see this change will be the SE where cold weather and a NE flow for a time may maintain a risk of wintry showers before the High pressure takes over and backs winds off to the WNW. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the likelihood of a large Winter anticyclone having dominance across the UK in 10 days time probably over the South with cold, bright weather with frosts at night. The North may see rather less cold Westerly winds at times later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to slowly grow for High pressure to replace the current cold Northerly flow later next week and beyond. The resting place of such a High is yet to be determined. MY THOUGHTS The cold Northerly feed of air across the UK between Low pressure to the East and High to the West continues to prove stubborn to shift in this morning's output. All models show the flow maintained through at least the first half of next week tilting towards the NE midweek as High pressure makes it's move towards Northern Britain. This brings NE winds and the coldest weather to the South and East where wintry showers in the SE look likely while many other areas become dry, cold and frosty. Later in the week the general consensus seems to be to migrate the High pressure ridge further South and cut off the cold feed in the South too by then but still with sharp frosts at night. Then as we move into Week 2 things remain far from clear and if cold weather is displaced then it will remain close by to the East and as High pressure is likely to remain over the Atlantic further injections from the North seem quite likely at times so anyone looking for particularly mild conditions will be disappointed by that news. However, snowfall remains very hard to pin down in detail and for many will continue not to be an issue with little or none in shelter. Higher ground and in the East next week could see a shift in emphasis in snow distribution as winds veer NE for a time but the threat of anything for the SW of note seems to have receded from this morning's output. So in summary for many a typical cold wintry spell continues, nothing exceptional with a gradual lightening of winds next week and an increase in severity of frosts looking likely but with compensatory bright sunshine at times and given that it will be February from tomorrow sunshine at least looks stronger in the extending daylight hours. Issued at 08:00 Saturday January 31st 2015
  9. 12 points
    Yes, some very nice ENS members tonight. Probably the coldest set of the Winter so far out to Day 8. And it's not often you see a Day 8 mean PPN chart like this either.. I have a feeling this cold spell could last a lot longer than some people think.
  10. 11 points
    We have seen the GFS pattern currently modelled at day 10 recur this winter - but only at day 10 on the GFS charts. By day 5 there has been far more amplification in the flow and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same modeled again. Still waiting to see what MJO signal emerges - but the (weak) trend is heading towards phase8 with the GFS and ECM - a total antithesis to where the day 10 models are headed. Still I expect the pattern to re amplify. In the meantime, another surprise snowfall here today and with heights still low for the next 3-4 days who knows what will crop up in the colder flow.
  11. 10 points
    Jan 31 2015--- A possible 2010 redux............ A noticeable step change across some of the models tonight. ( UKMO 144 & NAVGEM 12z 144-180) These + Some of the ensembles are picking up on the pattern becoming significantly amplified at day 8, if the inflection point is far enough west the scoop of cold air out of the pole could be VERY significant- we are talking sub -20c air dropping South out of Greenland- The modification would bring that upwards to -14c as it hits Scotland. I saw this scenario develop in 2010 where the ECM was WAYYY to far east & the GFS licked it. ( rare ) heres the best case scenario. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=1&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0 remember this Chart http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-12-15-0-0.png look at the break point - over Northern Greenland- ECM 7 days before. 00z way east http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=8&mois=12&annee=2010&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0 12z closer http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=8&mois=12&annee=2010&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0 big correction west the next day the ECM totally failed 5 days before http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=10&mois=12&annee=2010&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0 finally nailed at day 5 There isn't quite as much blocking towards Greenland this time- but we could tap the cold. Look at the UKMO 144 break point. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015013112/UN144-21.GIF?31-18 nicely west- needs more inflection. Interested in significant upgrades overnight......... S Chart of the day http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015013118/gensnh-7-1-312.png
  12. 10 points
    You are all so kind. We really are a community. Your thoughts mean a lot. She is my best friend. She always hated the stuff. Probably something to do with struggling through winter 62/63 with 4 young children and an absent husband for most of it (Dad was on a business trip to Brazil). Not helped by living out in the country on top of a steep hill. We relied on a neighbour who had a LandRover, but we survived. Beautiful lovely Mum. But just maybe... she's pulled through before and I must stay positive.
  13. 10 points
    I would give it a couple more days wrt the evolution from next week end. A number of Op runs have trended milder against the ensembles beyond day 6 and with the cold spell already extended to the end of the coming week it shows the pattern is not regaining any real mobility yet. A look at the GFS 00z ens 2m temp.graph for Warks. and the combined London suite shows what i mean there is certainly no real push to sweep away the cold block that will establish early next week.A look at the day 6 850hPa temp. mean charts see the UK still in the cold with impressive mean -8C uppers still over the se. We can't obviously ignore the strong signal for a mid-latitude block across the UK locale from next week end. Although this would cut off the cold feed of upper air there is every chance a cold surface would continue beyond and this is what the 2mtr ens temperatures indicate. Whilst the low heights remain over S.Europe it prevents the block sinking and an early return of a mobile westerly flow across the UK therefore remains unlikely. I think we can afford some optimism in future cold prospects for now, indeed if we regain further amplification in the flow we could see the block ridging further north. In the meantime it will get colder in the next few days as the true Arctic air filters south with some hard night frosts and with the prospect of snow showers in some northern and eastern districts.
  14. 9 points
    A very sluggish jet on GFS 12Z, looks like as normally happens in February the atlantic loses all strength, don't write off some stellar runs appearing in the week ahead.
  15. 9 points
    HP again building strongly end of the week on GFS 12Z, will take a while to break that down, looking very precarious for the mild zonal camp.
  16. 9 points
    easy! High pressure toppling over the UK, to settle in Germany giving a long fetched southerly draw bringing in record 30c heat from Africa and a kick-ass spanish plume with severe thunderstorms?
  17. 9 points
    Let's get one thing straight. In my first post this morning I wasn't hunting for any mild zonal, as you so quaintly put it, but just giving an honest assessment of the GFS run as I see it having looked at the whole run. Rather than trying to get an easterly going it establishes a westerly and delegates the Scandinavian high to points east leaving the Azores HP isolated. Thus it establishes a zonal flow, not mild, I reiterate I didn't hunt this it's what the GFS says. If there is any hunting going on it's for the elusive easterly.
  18. 9 points
    Forgive the cherry picking of eye candy but p4 would be nice and although it is about as cold as we could possiblt hope it also shows high pressure retrogressing which has been a bit of theme lately among some members in FI We can dream.
  19. 8 points
    Didnt get much today after our small amount of snowfall early this morning. However it did give me a chance to do this, first time I've been able to do this for my little boy who turned 4 today
  20. 8 points
    Cold surface air for many being predicted on the 6-10 day anomaly chart knocker showed. Anyweher with a snow cover could report some pretty low minimum overnight values. Prior to that and snow showers down the eastern side coming well inland at times I would have thought and still some risk of more persistent sleet or snow due the low in the SW - these comments applying to the next 1-5 days? Even just using the synoptic models, the predicted upper flow over the next few days leaves the surface high little alternative but to move as it is being shown and indeed confirmed in the 500mb anomaly chart for 6-10 days.
  21. 8 points
    I really doubt there will be any snow overnight for our region and there is nothing showing on any radar which leads me to think otherwise - the current precipitation over Norfolk is moving SSE into the southern North Sea. I certainly won't be staying up for disappointment . . . i can have that in bed x
  22. 8 points
  23. 8 points
    Little change this morning in the output compared to yesterday with next week becoming clearer in my mind. I shall begin by saying that some of you maybe wondering when it will turn colder especially at night. Well from tomorrow night onwards we're going to see much colder min temps with these dropping widely to -5C and in some parts of Scotland below -10C. The dewpoints will drop significantly tomorrow night onwards which will retain any lying snow members have. Onto next week and the outlook is pretty easy. Some snow showers into E areas of Scotland and England probably peaking around Wednesday before fading away from the N. The SE could continue to see these until the end of the week though. Moving into next weekend we could see a band of snow moving SE from the NW which may turn to rain as less cold air sweeps in. The further outlook does suggest it will become less cold, however the E will be the slowest to warm up and could remain cold into early next week. Worth adding that the GEFS ensembles still show huge scatter. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png
  24. 8 points
    You folk are making me homesick for a good Scottish fry-up. Eggs over easy, a Lorne sausage Scandi high and the omnipotent and essential black pudding of the vortex. Can anyone find the bacon - is there a nicely wound up low that can represent a fine slice of Ayrshire?
  25. 7 points
    I think this is a big change chart. Why.... Look to the south west. The low heights from Europe have encircled the MLB over the UK and it looks trapped. It cannot move back to its 'home'. It can only stay way it is a retrogress (either west or east!). Either of which will only increase the cold. To back up this point UKMO (at t144) has also placed a low area stragically under the high around the Azores and is rapidly closing the 'gap' by moving the euro lows westward........ I think chances of cold persisting have increased on the 12Z runs (considerably). MIA
  26. 7 points
    Look for a second wave of cold developing in the models tonight around 168 - the low over Iberia normally throws at least one feature west with time- Its not been a bad 2 days- after the initial 1 day with 4 upgrades we lost the easterly for a while before it re emerging. we still have some wiggle room to hols onto cold for a while longer post 192- I must admit the ECM has been poor here with constantly being over progressive- S
  27. 7 points
    good agreement this morning, with a pretty consistent pattern predicted for the next two weeks or so. giving pretty solid support to the week aheads northerly backing northeasterly some bitterly cold weather for a while, snow chances too, before the ridge topples supporting for the third day of course its not a done deal, however this evolution is pretty solid for three days now, and whilst the timing might be pushed back (or brought foreward) i wouldnt bet against the noaa upper flow prediction being wrong. i dont buy the jma's easterly, nor the ensemble members who suggest an easterly, as the anomaly charts are more accurate when in consistent agreement (john holmes has been spot on imho regarding the accuracy of these). however IF the noaa charts show either of these possible patterns (ive drawn on in gold how the upper flow contours should look) then an easterly would be most likely. but until/if they do, theres no deep lasting easterly imho.
  28. 7 points
    The start of the new week will feel bitter, With a very cold Northerly wind-chill pushing -8/-9850's over the whole of the UK.
  29. 7 points
    Fantastic post, would sticky it in it's own thread if i was a mod, makes a change from the needless negativety we so often see, ensembles offer plenty of great solutions.
  30. 7 points
    Just got very interesting around 330hr half the ensembles split the vortex and a few do this.... Have they picked up a new signal? lets hope so
  31. 6 points
    Must be in Thames streamer territory on the 18z at day 5?
  32. 6 points
  33. 6 points
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2 Quite an upgrade on 24 hours ago with the cold pool extending further west over UK in the medium term and a large area of snow develops over central Europe and edges NW towards the UK. This presumably on an occlusion as warmer air over the eastern Med and SE Europe pushes north and meets the polar continental airmass,
  34. 6 points
    Boxhill had a lovely sledge-worthy covering! Kids loved it! Love the contrast of the green snow-less fields below!xx
  35. 6 points
  36. 6 points
  37. 6 points
    I think we would have to call that the Danish dangler
  38. 5 points
    BBC start to becoming a little more confident of the North Easterly/Easterly waking up next week, particular emphasis on the South East even as the Atlantic breaks through into the north. Ladies and Gents this is brewing up to be by some margin our best looking shot for 2 years.
  39. 5 points
    Cold start to Feb! Im guessing there is some model Fatigue for the majority who haven't seen any proper snow yet ( me included). But these ens are the coldest we have seen for the south in two years! The scatter from the 6th is noteworthy....... nothing nailed as to where we go from there. If we keep everything crossed then feb could evolve into a very cold month, all we need now is some lowland snow and to be honest id not discount anything during the period up to the 6th !
  40. 5 points
    Well I for one am struggling to find encouragement in the outputs this evening, gone are the long drawn easterly's and replacing them is benign high pressure dominated weather that simply straddles the UK and ever so slowly eats all the cold up. then the trend is to end up with a sinking high and a slow painful return to the default, eating up a good chunk of the most important and historically coldest month of the year in the UK, but I think the models need more runs to determine where it goes beyond next week. About the only place that would likely hold on to the snow chances as we go through this week, given the output is the extreme SE, and even here it's a case of squeezing out the spare left overs, it's a bit like watching a mate run out of money on a Saturday night and seeing him drink the leftovers of other people's pints. The only positives I can see is that the High to our West is progressively being computed to be ever so slightly further north on each run across the models and if that trend continues I would expect to see the models throw out various options for next weekend, I'll explain below where I think things might go if things go favorably looking at + 144 we have the GFS, which looks good for snow chances for those in the SE but looks dry everywhere else. the GFS Control run is almost a carbon copy, snow chances on this limited to the very far south and east on the UKMO the high is much further West and not as far North, snow chances at this juncture are reserved fr an even smaller tip of the SE, hard to know where it would go from here, the high could sink with a NW feed going over the top, or Low pressure could sink from Iceland and reload with another toppler, a NW feed looks most likely.. Finally the ECM , the snow chances here would be greater if you was on a very long pier in the extreme south east...or on a boat just off shore. So each model above has the High to our West in slightly different positions , but the main theme at this juncture is broadly similar, even though each model takes a slightly different evolution to get there. where it goes from there is very much dependent upon where that high pressure goes, to my untrained eye another toppler looks more likely than not and then perhaps that might open the door to a real cold blast from the North East , it's something some of the GFS runs are hinting at, for example... Run 1 leads onto this... Run 4 takes it's time but leads onto this... run 7 Of course there's all sorts of options available, I just hope we don't end up with a long drawn out and dry end to things, with a slow gradual warming up like the GFS Op is showing as that would just be plain boring away from the SE...from an IMBY perspective I'm hoping to see something white falling out of the sky before the week is out, just hoping it's not another darn seagull
  41. 5 points
    Wow ECM also moving the high further north. A bit more retrogression of the european low towards the Azores and it will 'trap' the high. Already the southern arm of the jet looks to be readying itself with waiting arms. This now moving into the more likely category. MIA
  42. 5 points
    Because we all want to be able to see round the next corner, even if we know what is coming straight at us in the near future. Even if we are wrong, it is nice to try and see if we are right.
  43. 5 points
  44. 5 points
    My prayers and thoughts for your dear mother
  45. 5 points
    It's also a bit of myth that a dry February is necessarily a cold one, February 1998 was exceptionally mild, it was also very dry for England and Wales.
  46. 5 points
    Very interesting GEFS out to day 9. Not so sure we will be seeing anything mild in the near future. Definate signs of the high sitting further north and west across the 12z suite. All sorts of interesting possibilities in play.
  47. 5 points
    Look at the triangle polar vortex lol. Never seen an image like this! very unusual: This 12z run from the GFS does look to prop the high up further north than the 6z. Only a little, but does maintain a NE feed until Thursday now. Little step in the right direction anyway
  48. 5 points
  49. 5 points
  50. 5 points
    Not sure if there's been any comments regarding this model tonight but, synoptically, would say the 12Z JMA is one of the best operational runs for continued cold and blocked solutions at 168/192 hours. Almost like the double-chocolate chip cookie of the model runs tonight. 🪠Despite less-cold 850 hPa temperatures creeping in from the North-East at 192 hours (which could turn any showers to the North-East/East or South-East less wintry), the JMA kinda looks good for substaining the Easterly flow over the UK with the High Pressure building further North than most other models. Although it does show the chunk of Vortex to the North-West trying to put pressure on the blocking High, it seems as though those Lows out West would probably just push the High further East/North-East towards Scandinavia and perhaps keep Southern areas locked into an Easterly flow. I think, in a way, it's one of those cases where it could be a battle between the amplified Atlantic ridge trying to ridge far enough North into Scandinavia before the Canadian/Greenland vortex and it's fearsome Lows try to knock the High Pressure back close by to our South-West or South. Even then, the Lows our West later next week may only break through to the North of the UK. While a gradual breakdown of the cold/cool spell is perhaps generally the favoured option at the moment, I think there's still a library of possibilities open for later next week.
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