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Showing most liked content on 31/01/15 in all areas

  1. 12 likes
    Just looked at the 12Z ensembles and what is noticeable is the greater scatter has returned. I thought the 06Z ensembles were trending towards the operationals with less bitterly cold runs. However these have returned on the 12Z. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png Even at +192 on the 12Z ECM we have very cold air just to the E of the UK. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015013112/ECM0-192.GIF?31-0 So my outlook is I haven't a clue and frankly not too bothered because im more focussed on the next few days.
  2. 12 likes
    Morning, great Mid week winter charts for much of Europe, extensive low heights to the south and rising pressure to the North west. Cold circulation now more than likely to affect the Southeast of Britain with NEly flow and 850mb uppers -10c not far from the SE coast, so the snow potential increases in this region and less so in the west as the projected low now seems to be less of a problem for the Southwest and Wales. Beyond mid -week,ECM seems dissipate and remove the South European Low rather quickly, I think this will be too progressive and corrected this evening.Now, a prolonging of the low pressure over Europe will be crucial to any extention of the British Isles cold spell next week . Probabaly a bit marginal for snow at the moment for some of you but the cold will be well established in 48 hours. C
  3. 7 likes
    Hi folks,just had my winter fix today up Wicklow mountains 500m asl with my daughter.some pictures attached
  4. 6 likes
    Must be in Thames streamer territory on the 18z at day 5?
  5. 6 likes
  6. 6 likes
    come on guys and gals,, its not that this modern cold spell is not delivering, your just wearing the wrong clothes. Took the dog for a walk in my speedo's and a T shirt and decided on some suitable flip flops and let me tell you... ITS ABSOLUTELY FREEZING OUT THERE..............
  7. 5 likes
    Cold start to Feb! Im guessing there is some model Fatigue for the majority who haven't seen any proper snow yet ( me included). But these ens are the coldest we have seen for the south in two years! The scatter from the 6th is noteworthy....... nothing nailed as to where we go from there. If we keep everything crossed then feb could evolve into a very cold month, all we need now is some lowland snow and to be honest id not discount anything during the period up to the 6th !
  8. 5 likes
    Very interesting GEFS out to day 9. Not so sure we will be seeing anything mild in the near future. Definate signs of the high sitting further north and west across the 12z suite. All sorts of interesting possibilities in play.
  9. 5 likes
    Look at the triangle polar vortex lol. Never seen an image like this! very unusual: This 12z run from the GFS does look to prop the high up further north than the 6z. Only a little, but does maintain a NE feed until Thursday now. Little step in the right direction anyway
  10. 5 likes
    What would you accept now ? Waking up to a minimal 1-2cm covering that slowly thaws and is gone in 2 days ( and that's the best you get this winter ) Or Gamble your 1-2cm of guaranteed snow for the prospect of a possibly major 10-20 cm event that stays intact for 3-4 days , plus other events ( with February almost upon us time is starting to run out ) I think at this point I would take the 1-2 cm then write off the winter as average and hope for an early spring . It's feels like pulling hens teeth to get reasonable snowfall this winter( imby perspective ). Teased by the snow gods we are. The more we are teased the greater the obsession becomes.
  11. 5 likes
    Not sure if there's been any comments regarding this model tonight but, synoptically, would say the 12Z JMA is one of the best operational runs for continued cold and blocked solutions at 168/192 hours. Almost like the double-chocolate chip cookie of the model runs tonight. 🪠Despite less-cold 850 hPa temperatures creeping in from the North-East at 192 hours (which could turn any showers to the North-East/East or South-East less wintry), the JMA kinda looks good for substaining the Easterly flow over the UK with the High Pressure building further North than most other models. Although it does show the chunk of Vortex to the North-West trying to put pressure on the blocking High, it seems as though those Lows out West would probably just push the High further East/North-East towards Scandinavia and perhaps keep Southern areas locked into an Easterly flow. I think, in a way, it's one of those cases where it could be a battle between the amplified Atlantic ridge trying to ridge far enough North into Scandinavia before the Canadian/Greenland vortex and it's fearsome Lows try to knock the High Pressure back close by to our South-West or South. Even then, the Lows our West later next week may only break through to the North of the UK. While a gradual breakdown of the cold/cool spell is perhaps generally the favoured option at the moment, I think there's still a library of possibilities open for later next week.
  12. 4 likes
    Over the past week we've had a lot of marginality, does anyone know when the colder upper temps are going to come across? I thought it was going to be this weekend!
  13. 4 likes
    There is around a 48 hour window (Wednesday through to Friday) where the winds do swing east/north easterly, this probably brings the coldest air of the entire colder than average spell, especially in the east. Beyond that we see a front move south Friday into next Saturday which could bring a possible wintry mix before clearing with a brief colder north/north westerly and then at this present time a change to drier and less cold conditions, perhaps milder with rain at times in the north. At this point it is a case of eeking as much out of this as possible (length and depth of cold)
  14. 4 likes
    Absolutely, not forgetting this cold snap suddenly appeared from virtually nowhere and originally looked like a 'toppler' according to a lot of members. It's already at day 3 or 4 and we have another week or so of frosty weather (if not widespread snow) - which will leave us at a 12 day or so cold spell. Pretty good for any winters and to be honest, we'd only need another spell of snow in that time to match the winters of a few years back, which were colder but relatively snowless for my part of the Midlands. Winter doesn't show it's head until Mid-Jan onwards these days (or so it seems) and since then, this winter has been good - with a good chance of snow events to chase and some good synoptics. A much better winter this year, very little mild and not that much in the way of low pressure to be honest - a decent Feb and we will be looking at a 'reasonable' winter overall.
  15. 3 likes
  16. 3 likes
    Not a bad 12z GFS and a hint of the possibility of a shift in the vortex that may allow heights to build a bit more where we want them.
  17. 3 likes
    I've had it up to here with this overhyped so called cold spell. Yes it's cold when you are exposed to the wind, but that is a given isn't it? Out of the wind?....nope, known worse. Now turning to the weather that this spell is delivering.....frosts? Nope. Snow? Ha. What we have had is rain and sleet ... Oh and a short spell last night of the equivalent of what you'd find in a pre flavoured slush puppy container...soaking wet, transparent sloppy muck that once in its existence would have been fluffy white snow. Yuk! Seeing all the postings from over the border talking about the snow they've had, then moaning because it's starting to melt! Sod off...at least you've had some!!! What do I see looking out my window? Green grass which is now becoming waterlogged in places, as are the neighbouring farmers fields! Call this a cold spell? Shove it....it's rubbish.
  18. 3 likes
    The ensembles this morning look fantastic for cold, with the op being the main outlier. This seems to me has been the case since the upgrade,with the op being on the mild side of things (generally).. Don't loose faith coldies, expect the op to be dragged kicking and screaming into line with the rest over the next few days.. To me things look very positive for the cold to stay, with a good chance of very cold..
  19. 2 likes
    Erm yeah them showers getting going.. Expect the unexpected
  20. 2 likes
    As is say when it's forecast it's less likely to happen than when it isn't! Wouldn't bet against some snowfall during the night though.
  21. 2 likes
    The GFS inversion possibility is a throwback to quite a few years ago, does anyone remember that incidence when there was some amazing hoar frost and ice days with upper air temps well above zero. That had a similar high pressure cell centred over the UK, this was early February if I remember also.I think it had to be pre 2008 as I was still living in West Sussex then. The key was the high pressure cell centred bang in the middle of the UK with no wind. Right I might just remember for some reason 2006 comes to mind early February, I'll see what the GFS archives make of that.
  22. 2 likes
    Rain rain rain rain rain rain rain snowflake rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain. Roll on Monday and fingers crossed fellow Norfolkers.
  23. 2 likes
    Iceni I can't come up with any suitable words, I can only echo what others have expressed.
  24. 2 likes
    Met Eireann give snow showers for Ulster tonight but no warning as of yet. In their regional fc they mention snow showers will become more isolated from tomorrow afternoon which is when the met office snow warning kicks in. You couldn't make it up ha
  25. 2 likes
    The UKMO suggest that the MJO won't be very influential however a few weeks back I'm sure they said the same thing and then put down that colder interlude to the high amplitude phase 6.Which both the ECM and UKMO wanted to take into the COD before phase 7 against the GEFS. What transpired was that the UKMO and ECM MJO forecasts were proven wrong, what verified was a blend of the GEFS and GEFS bias corrected. Until we know what the MJO will do then I'd be wary of the outputs. We have another divergence of opinion between the GEFS and the others so that will take a few days to sort out as we won't get any updates now till Monday.
  26. 2 likes
    Temp down to 3c and a few flakes of SNOW!! coming down!
  27. 2 likes
    I hope the Navgem is on to something , The Cold spell never ends ..
  28. 2 likes
    Indeed it is, just taken out of the bedroom window
  29. 2 likes
    MetO were caught out as many places had amazing heavy snowfall. There's currently a squall line of ppn in a diagonal line from the NW which could give us even more snow. RE: Croydon - There will be a lull for approx 15 30 mins soon until more snow. It's going to be very testing from Tuesday when the Beast From The East unleashes it's might.
  30. 2 likes
    Yes the BBC are referring to rain, sleet, snow this weekend but I am referring to next week and its worth mentioning snow is being reported as far S as Sussex. The difference between today and next week is clearly shown on the output and im surprised you didn't notice this. -4C upper temps today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs032.gif -7/-8C next week. The slightly less cold upper temps for today have been predicted by the models for some time now!
  31. 2 likes
  32. 2 likes
    Well after watching newsline weather Iave a little faith in much snow at all this weekend. Have no idea why met office have weather warnings for snow out. ! Looks like the showers are completely few and very far between if at all. Maybe met know something we don't
  33. 1 like
    Off topic i know but if anyone can spare a few £££ please donate to this wonderful appeal: http://www.gofundme.com/l0dt9o Be great for it to hit £200k
  34. 1 like
    Day 5 from GFS could be a ideal environment for a Thames Streamer ENE wind, with -8C 850s. NMM 2km 18z is much more on the ball, IMO.
  35. 1 like
    Unsurprisingly I like the sound of that! But hopefully there can be a bit of a shift in the wind direction so that more people see something of interest.
  36. 1 like
    Hahahaha, just have to wait and see if anything comes! 😇😈😊
  37. 1 like
  38. 1 like
    Thanks for the DP's guys.... just as I thought. Don't want any precipitation now. Want ground to be dry for hopefully when we get next lot at around 03:00 tomorrow. But next week sounds more promising
  39. 1 like
    Ok BA, prepare to eat pie that is humble :=)
  40. 1 like
    Have to agree with several posters here, so far this cool (cold ) spell is more akin to a post equinox wintry spell, hail, sleet, cold rain and any snow looking stuff that falls is gone within minutes, however I do think we may have at least one more shot, even the everchanging 5 day forecast by hours is now showing sleet and even snow shower symbols which it hasn't for my location within 36 hours of T0 this spell. So keep faith!
  41. 1 like
    Pretty uninspired by the weather this week. It's been a load of crap to be honest and no real snow to talk about. In saying that, some areas have done really well. Sparky with regards to Monday I'm still hopeful. It's only one run but if the downgrade still there tomorrow morning then i'll believe it.
  42. 1 like
    Sleety snow in Raynes Park has stopped now. No accumulation of course. 0.8c / -0.2c dp Yamkin - great to see you here again - legend!
  43. 1 like
    Why do people expect this pattern to reload once this cold spell eases? The stratosphere has helped this current northerly with the vortex kept in Siberia but things are changing now and the vortex is moving back to Greenland. We will need the help from the MJO. Any news from that?
  44. 1 like
  45. 1 like
    It's really on a knife edge for our region:
  46. 1 like
    The streamers have started firing up again in the Mersey and over North Wales, so it looks like the Midlands have a few more hours left. (Hopefully feeding us as well!!!) YUP!! looking half decent for a change... A lot of surprised faces in the morning.
  47. 1 like
    I think everyone should take a look at the 18z ensembles. They look fantastic. Could be a Steve murr boooooooom!!! On the way!!
  48. 1 like
    Alex deakin had decent snow graphics in our region for early tomorrow!!!
  49. 1 like
    Whilst precipitation discrimination was always going to be difficult to pinpoint, I must say for the overall track hats off to the NMM once again for staying pretty consistent with what turned out to be the correct track for the Northern flank vs the Euro4 and, presumably, UKV. Not the first time this winter the NMM has proven itself. We ended up with 3-4cms at home. On the train to London now and still a blanket of white as far as the eye can see approaching sawbridgeworth SK
  50. 1 like
    Hi Marco What a beautiful part of Europe! Welcome. Your English is great, don't worry - try our Italian and then you'll know. I spend quite a bit of time near Perpignan in southern France and although snow is rare at sea level the mountains are often sugar dusted even on hot days. Sometimes for a few hours we get snow on the beach!
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