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Showing content with the highest reputation on 31/01/15 in all areas

  1. 15 points
    The gfs is trying to ridge and link up into Scandinavia which if north and north east enough would bring an easterly most models have shown this over the last few days. So like you hunt for the azores mild zonal the others are just showing what they see.
  2. 13 points
    Mucka, you may of cherry picked the chart at the earlier timeframe, but the fantasy island chart is backed up by 4 others almost as good and in total 11 split the vortex by 360hr. i remember Tamara posting a couple of days back the GWO would be favorable around 15 days, plus the lower strat is now warming and a couple of runs have shown the mjo moving to phase 8. Could be very interesting, this spell might just be the starter and there may not be a break before the main course.
  3. 12 points
    Morning, great Mid week winter charts for much of Europe, extensive low heights to the south and rising pressure to the North west. Cold circulation now more than likely to affect the Southeast of Britain with NEly flow and 850mb uppers -10c not far from the SE coast, so the snow potential increases in this region and less so in the west as the projected low now seems to be less of a problem for the Southwest and Wales. Beyond mid -week,ECM seems dissipate and remove the South European Low rather quickly, I think this will be too progressive and corrected this evening.Now, a prolonging of the low pressure over Europe will be crucial to any extention of the British Isles cold spell next week . Probabaly a bit marginal for snow at the moment for some of you but the cold will be well established in 48 hours. C
  4. 12 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will blow down across the UK over the next 48hrs with various showery troughs feeding South at times too. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold in the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out somewhat to a WNW to ESE flow just South of the UK later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold weather hanging in across much of the UK, particularly the South as pressure builds towards and over the NW later next week tilting the winds towards the NE and replacing the current wintry showers in the North more towards the East and SE later next week. Frosts and dry bright weather will be endorsed elsewhere later next week. Then in week 2 the High over the NW finally sinks SE across the UK and on into Europe with milder SW winds for all then last to reach the SE. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is even more dogged in maintaining cold in parts of the UK with the South never leaving cold through much of week 2 either as High pressure is held over the North and cold East winds blow for longer over the South with some wintry showers in places. the end of the run sees all areas more unsettled but certainly not warm as cold pockets of air remain close to or over the UK. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 760/40 split in High pressure ending up in a position to the NW or West of the UK in 15 days time with further cold weather in North or NE winds across the UK. The 40% takes up options around milder Westerly winds taking control with High pressure to the South and SE. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show cold weather across the UK next week as High pressure to the West of the UK edges in closer to the West and North early next week. Wintry showers look like becoming less prevalent away from the SE as winds fall lighter but with sharp frosts at night almost everywhere. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex pressure pattern under cold and unstable North winds. There are various troughs featured moving South in the flow but this morning they are shown to be mostly away from land either to the West or East of the UK probably meaning a lot of dry, bright and cold weather away from windward coasts where sleet or snow showers continue likely. GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of next week as a ridge extends East from it across the UK sinking South later. So wintry showers early in the week should be replaced by largely dry, bright and cold weather with hard frosts for many before milder air reaches the North on strengthening Westerly winds later. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the Northerly feed going throughout the run this morning with further disturbances running South in the flow delivering enhanced wintry showers of sleet and snow at times chiefly but not exclusively over coastal areas in the West, North and East especially in the east towards the middle of next week as winds turn NE for a while. ECM ECM this morning also shows another week of cold weather across the UK before a moderation in conditions under Atlantic WNW'lies develop by the end of the weekend. Last to see this change will be the SE where cold weather and a NE flow for a time may maintain a risk of wintry showers before the High pressure takes over and backs winds off to the WNW. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the likelihood of a large Winter anticyclone having dominance across the UK in 10 days time probably over the South with cold, bright weather with frosts at night. The North may see rather less cold Westerly winds at times later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to slowly grow for High pressure to replace the current cold Northerly flow later next week and beyond. The resting place of such a High is yet to be determined. MY THOUGHTS The cold Northerly feed of air across the UK between Low pressure to the East and High to the West continues to prove stubborn to shift in this morning's output. All models show the flow maintained through at least the first half of next week tilting towards the NE midweek as High pressure makes it's move towards Northern Britain. This brings NE winds and the coldest weather to the South and East where wintry showers in the SE look likely while many other areas become dry, cold and frosty. Later in the week the general consensus seems to be to migrate the High pressure ridge further South and cut off the cold feed in the South too by then but still with sharp frosts at night. Then as we move into Week 2 things remain far from clear and if cold weather is displaced then it will remain close by to the East and as High pressure is likely to remain over the Atlantic further injections from the North seem quite likely at times so anyone looking for particularly mild conditions will be disappointed by that news. However, snowfall remains very hard to pin down in detail and for many will continue not to be an issue with little or none in shelter. Higher ground and in the East next week could see a shift in emphasis in snow distribution as winds veer NE for a time but the threat of anything for the SW of note seems to have receded from this morning's output. So in summary for many a typical cold wintry spell continues, nothing exceptional with a gradual lightening of winds next week and an increase in severity of frosts looking likely but with compensatory bright sunshine at times and given that it will be February from tomorrow sunshine at least looks stronger in the extending daylight hours. Issued at 08:00 Saturday January 31st 2015
  5. 12 points
    Yes, some very nice ENS members tonight. Probably the coldest set of the Winter so far out to Day 8. And it's not often you see a Day 8 mean PPN chart like this either.. I have a feeling this cold spell could last a lot longer than some people think.
  6. 11 points
    We have seen the GFS pattern currently modelled at day 10 recur this winter - but only at day 10 on the GFS charts. By day 5 there has been far more amplification in the flow and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same modeled again. Still waiting to see what MJO signal emerges - but the (weak) trend is heading towards phase8 with the GFS and ECM - a total antithesis to where the day 10 models are headed. Still I expect the pattern to re amplify. In the meantime, another surprise snowfall here today and with heights still low for the next 3-4 days who knows what will crop up in the colder flow.
  7. 10 points
    Most of the region already got lucky at some point during this cold spell. Let's take a look at the next couple of days to see what's going on. So we currently have low pressure to the east over the North Sea which is dragging in cold air from the north: This low gradually moves northeast allowing a better northerly flow to become established by Sunday: At the moment we have a very messy situation because of the low in the north sea which has brought higher 850hpa temperatures with it. Currently T850s are around -3 to -4. As a rough guide, -5 or lower is needed for snow, often -6 or -7 along the coast. Other factors are important too though, which means snow can fall with higher 850 temperatures. As the northerly flow becomes better established, the T850s drop with colder air flooding down from the north by Sunday evening: By Tuesday, the winds swing round to a more northeasterly direction, which should help push any showers that form further inland, hence the current Met Office warning for most areas on Tuesday, with T850s below -5c. So the next thing to look for in the charts is precipitation. This is notoriously difficult and unreliable when predicting snowfall because of troughs and small scale disruptions which are only first modelled a few hours out. That's why people often mention getting the cold weather in place is more important first of all. Today The rest of today looks like being mainly dry once the rain, sleet and snow has cleared from the south of the region. The current radar shows some showers in the north sea behind this, but they will most likely be near to the coast, with rain and sleet at low levels and snow over higher ground. The reason for rain/sleet is because the 850 temperatures are today around -3 to -5c. Dewpoints are rising today also - generally 0c or below is needed for the chance of settling snow. This chart from the NMM for 3pm shows dew points of 2-3c in the east with 0 to -1c in the west: Tonight Overnight, the dewpoints drop away, especially in the west, down to -3 or -4c. In the east, a small disturbance related to the main low runs down the coast, keeping dewpoints above freezing here. So because of the higher dewpoints and the slightly higher 850 temps, the NMM predicts a messy picture of rain, sleet and possibly snow tonight as some showery activity heads southwards. White diagonal lines indicate snow, otherwise rain/sleet: Tomorrow: The colder air starts to flood south during tomorrow which increases the chance of snow. However there appears to be less precipitation around and Sunday looks like being a dry, bright day for most, with perhaps some showers of sleet along the coast and snow especially over higher ground (perhaps the NY Moors & Wolds). Tonight's shower activity can be seen clearing southwards too by lunchtime tomorrow: Summary Rain, sleet and snow clearing southwards today, leaving a mainly bright picture behind for most of the region, especially in the west. Occasional showers continuing in the east, predominantly of rain or sleet, but with some snow over high ground which could begin to accumulate by the end of the day. Overnight more showery activity passes southwards, mainly of rain and sleet along the coast, but with the possibility of some snow over higher ground. Tomorrow sees a drier, more settled day once the showers have cleared, with just a few peppering coastal areas, turning increasingly wintry as the day goes on. Outlook Next week looks like staying cold with a more northeasterly wind on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could bring snow showers quite far inland. There is also the possibility of polar lows forming which can produce longer spells of snow, but these are difficult to model and will often change from one run to the next. Either way, it looks like an interesting period of weather over the next week, cold weather fans should enjoy it! Hope this post has been useful to explain the basics to newer members.
  8. 9 points
    easy! High pressure toppling over the UK, to settle in Germany giving a long fetched southerly draw bringing in record 30c heat from Africa and a kick-ass spanish plume with severe thunderstorms?
  9. 9 points
    Let's get one thing straight. In my first post this morning I wasn't hunting for any mild zonal, as you so quaintly put it, but just giving an honest assessment of the GFS run as I see it having looked at the whole run. Rather than trying to get an easterly going it establishes a westerly and delegates the Scandinavian high to points east leaving the Azores HP isolated. Thus it establishes a zonal flow, not mild, I reiterate I didn't hunt this it's what the GFS says. If there is any hunting going on it's for the elusive easterly.
  10. 9 points
    Forgive the cherry picking of eye candy but p4 would be nice and although it is about as cold as we could possiblt hope it also shows high pressure retrogressing which has been a bit of theme lately among some members in FI We can dream.
  11. 8 points
  12. 8 points
    Little change this morning in the output compared to yesterday with next week becoming clearer in my mind. I shall begin by saying that some of you maybe wondering when it will turn colder especially at night. Well from tomorrow night onwards we're going to see much colder min temps with these dropping widely to -5C and in some parts of Scotland below -10C. The dewpoints will drop significantly tomorrow night onwards which will retain any lying snow members have. Onto next week and the outlook is pretty easy. Some snow showers into E areas of Scotland and England probably peaking around Wednesday before fading away from the N. The SE could continue to see these until the end of the week though. Moving into next weekend we could see a band of snow moving SE from the NW which may turn to rain as less cold air sweeps in. The further outlook does suggest it will become less cold, however the E will be the slowest to warm up and could remain cold into early next week. Worth adding that the GEFS ensembles still show huge scatter. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png
  13. 8 points
    You folk are making me homesick for a good Scottish fry-up. Eggs over easy, a Lorne sausage Scandi high and the omnipotent and essential black pudding of the vortex. Can anyone find the bacon - is there a nicely wound up low that can represent a fine slice of Ayrshire?
  14. 7 points
    Hi folks,just had my winter fix today up Wicklow mountains 500m asl with my daughter.some pictures attached
  15. 7 points
    good agreement this morning, with a pretty consistent pattern predicted for the next two weeks or so. giving pretty solid support to the week aheads northerly backing northeasterly some bitterly cold weather for a while, snow chances too, before the ridge topples supporting for the third day of course its not a done deal, however this evolution is pretty solid for three days now, and whilst the timing might be pushed back (or brought foreward) i wouldnt bet against the noaa upper flow prediction being wrong. i dont buy the jma's easterly, nor the ensemble members who suggest an easterly, as the anomaly charts are more accurate when in consistent agreement (john holmes has been spot on imho regarding the accuracy of these). however IF the noaa charts show either of these possible patterns (ive drawn on in gold how the upper flow contours should look) then an easterly would be most likely. but until/if they do, theres no deep lasting easterly imho.
  16. 7 points
    The start of the new week will feel bitter, With a very cold Northerly wind-chill pushing -8/-9850's over the whole of the UK.
  17. 7 points
    Fantastic post, would sticky it in it's own thread if i was a mod, makes a change from the needless negativety we so often see, ensembles offer plenty of great solutions.
  18. 7 points
    Just got very interesting around 330hr half the ensembles split the vortex and a few do this.... Have they picked up a new signal? lets hope so
  19. 7 points
    Good evening all, As someone who has been on this site for 9 years, I would like to share some of the wisdom I have learned. I do hope this will improve your enjoyment of this forum, because at times it can be the most frustrating place in the world, at other times, there is not a better place to learn about weather. But you need to be able to identify what is good and what is not! I hope the below aids you in that process. 1. Just because someone has made lots of posts, that does not mean they know lots. Passed experience has taught me, some of them talk complete rubbish. 2. Learn who the valued contributors are and do not waist too much time reading other posts, you will make much better use of you time. 3. Even if you are a cold weather fan, also follow the thread occasionally in the summer, it will help you understand better who the real unbiased posters are. 4. Accept the fact the majority of posters, no matter how good at reading the models, have a preference for cold weather 5. Understand that if somebody is not a cold,weather fan, they probably demonstrate a warm bias 6. There are few posters who give a truly balanced view, but to name a few.... Nick Sussex, Nick F, Tamarra, and Gibby. 7. Just because someone is confident in what they are saying does not make then right 8. Anything past 5 days when talking about specifics is pure speculation, look how much the Met Office forecast can change, even for day 5 9. Learn who to trust and concentrate on those posts 10. Do not take it too seriously 11. Post charts to help articulate your point 12. If you do not know, do not pretend, say and learn 13. Ever year has buzz words, each one a new, do not get too caught up in these 14. Not everybody sees the world the same way you do! Have empathy! 15. Not every run is correct, the trend is your friend 16. Do not pay too much attention to snow risk or precipitation charts! 17. Whatever people say, the Met Office do know what they are talking about (better then most) 18. Twitter is a great place to follow some knowledgeable people, @MattHugo81 springs to mind 19. Generally people like to look at the period where the models are uncertain, that is half the fun 20. It is only weather, there are more important things in life (although, not many!) Enjoy, it really is a great forum, if you know what to believe and what to not. If you believe every thing you read, you will, soon become disenchanted! Hope that helps David
  20. 6 points
  21. 6 points
    Mornin'Kilties! Back to the usual mix of sleet/graupel/rain and gales for us today. Gales...just when I don't need them. I have to go over the bridge today. Bear Scotland close the bridge if a midge farts. Just hope I get over and back again before that midge let's one rip!
  22. 6 points
    I think we would have to call that the Danish dangler
  23. 6 points
    Well we'll see, I'm keeping most of my toys in the pram for the time being but I must admit to having had a look round them all to work out which ones I can lob the furthest. I've dropped MrsC off at work there the now, I could see from Sainsbury's car park at the top of the hill in Kelso that the hills to the north have got a covering of snow from last night. Hugely frustrating stuff and a reminder that I need to get sorted with a move back out to somewhere at decent altitude again, living on the floor doesn't cut it at all. Very icy underfoot here this morning, and surprise surprise the pavement gritter and road gritter which were roaring up and down at 6.30am the other morning in response to a non-slippy dusting of snow are now nowhere to be seen. ECM 00z at +240hrs. Where have I seen this set-up before? Azores High do one, I've had enough of you. Seriously, pack up your onions and do some trouser legging off somewhere else. I'll telephone box you Mr Sweary Filter....peace off ya sheet
  24. 6 points
    Hi all Been a lurker to this forum for a number of years, mainly during the winter months as I'm a snow lover and have learned lots. . I consider this to be the best place to go for near accurate weather forecasts, without hype.. though I do love andymusic's ramping! I have noticed he's been a little more restrained this season however.. Anyway,the reason I've surfaced from the lurkers depths is because today, I've relocated from a Cardiff suburb to a small village in Blaenau Gwent, and, this evening.. It snowed!! Lots of it, tumbling from the sky like cotton wool balls.. Just lovely Hope to see a lot more now I'm here.. will try and work out asl soon.. Happy!
  25. 5 points
    I'm down in London and it's snowing!
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