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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/01/15 in all areas

  1. 36 points
    I'll post in more detail tomorrow morning but I would say 5-7 days down the line it will get colder overall and possibly last 3-7 days. I don't normally stick my neck out but the anomalies are moving that way fairly consistently over the past 2-3 days. Not a major pattern change but enough veering of the upper flow to bring colder air south more often between a devloping Atlantic ridge and European/southern Scandinavia troughing, not very marked signalled yet, the GFS MJO version being more amenable to this and my own VERY tentative note in the Troposphere thread re 30mb temperature hikes and the time to appear SOMETIMES at sea level. Could be wrong so don't take this too seriously for now.
  2. 31 points
    A fairly short update - pending some longer term atmospheric uncertainties which will determine whether a colder trend becomes something of greater significance in the longer term or not Positive frictional torques are indeed increasing - signalled by the GWO in Phase 4 (and still signalled thereafter to head to Phase 5 and re-orbit to phases 8/1). Increase in frictional torques is favourable for weakening the current intensity of the Azores High and on the basis of orbit back through Phases 8/1 this is also support for the current modelled indications for the ridge to shift north westwards. Retrogression of the pattern is therefore coming into modelling focus as previously suggested, and leads credibility for a growing impetus for air masses of polar origin to start to outweigh much better those of the more tropical maritime origin. The question still remains as to how sustained this trend might be? The MJO might yet provide some modest assistance first time around, but there is also some evidence that we might not have to wait so long for further assistance if some model hints at re-emergence into 5/6 (not the Indian Ocean as in December) and then fresh impetus towards Phases 7/8 are followed up. With this possibility in mind, repeated retrogression of the pattern and more frequent North Westerly and Northerly influence as per current ECM and GEM trends are well underpinned - even if a proper HLB signal still seems at least a little distance away, for the time being. Shortening wave lengths are increasingly going to come into play more and more as time goes on later into winter - and that will certainly assist the trend becoming an ever greater friend. At the very least, a steady colder trend is supported through the second half of January, with lower heights better sustained into Europe. There is an impetus just beginning, which I think will be much harder to reverse than we have seen so far In the shorter term, most solutions on 12z EPS clusters out to next Wednesday (t120) support that problematic secondary low showing signs of deepening rapidly on our doorstep that many more of us much further south than recently have to watch closely over the coming days
  3. 31 points
    Quite conceivably. MOGREPS is particularly strong on the colder NW'ly signal towards same period and agreement on a generally colder theme is consistent across all output. How long this phase lasts is another matter, however (especially judging from yesterday's EC Monthly suite, but I've not yet seen if GloSea offers consensus).
  4. 23 points
    Some poetic licence please Moderators… If I may just say this again: While I may lack the paperwork, and certificates hanging on the wall, I am very experienced at following the NWP and especially here over the last several years, experienced in following weather forums. I will offer these following paragraphs for those frustrated at the patterns on offer from the vast majority of models. 1: Look away. Take a few days off. If your favorite weather pattern isn't on show, take a few days away, and look again. They do often chop and change beyond day 5 and more you know! 2: If you don't like what you're currently seeing, don't go on a tirade against that particular model. It's just a computer generated idea of what the future may hold, it's not actually setting the future weather patterns! 3: Please don't take your whimsical pain out on other members because you don't see the future as you wish it to be on the models... And finally 4: Listen to the likes of John Holmes, Tamara, Steve Murr (even though he is quiet of late :-) and Chionomaniac, Recretos and Matt Hugo on the strat thread and here on MOD, to name but a few, and to some more of the moderators when it comes to the variances of the many daily runs. There are some wise weather folk on this blessed site, and for this I am very thankful. Last thing I want to see, is the lot of the moderators, get wildly pee'd off with all the off topic posting, in-house fighting, and all the "pushing of the forum rule boundaries" that they all quit. I've seen it before. Enjoy all of the weather. Like I do. Be it cold, warm, windy or calm. Snowy, rainy or sunny. The site and it's members don't control it.
  5. 23 points
    I'm sorry but that's WRONG, and very misleading to newer members. . Lots of Polar Maritime sourced air, and plenty of snow opportunities being shown on the GFS op, especially the further North you are, and all being shown in the more reliable timeframe.
  6. 22 points
    Lots of potential for lamp post and radar watching from tomorrow onwards in various parts of the uk on tonight's Ecm 12z op run, hardly anything mild to speak of and a lot of cold to speak of with snow showers, ice and frosts, also a risk of leading edge and back edge wet snow. There is also a risk of severe winds and heavy rain but on the whole it's all about the cold polar maritime and arctic shots bringing the white stuff most of us crave. :-)
  7. 19 points
    Yep, cherry picked (not so sure you actually did it deliberately tbf) mild charts becoming a much rarer find as we head into the second half of January which is increasingly wintry for some and paints a generally cool to cold pattern trend.
  8. 18 points
    Hi Ido The american pro mets totally berate the GFS accuracy v the ECM on TStorms - So I would be inclined to go with the ECM @ 144 A good run tonight which sees the sinking trough at 240 - S
  9. 18 points
    I think some living further North in the UK will likely disagree with your last sentence. There could easily be something wintry of note for them over the coming week or so.
  10. 18 points
    morning all - Im not normally one to comment on storms as they are really par for the course t'up North, however both the GFS & GFS (p) are pretty well alligned at 150 with a sub 945 system crossing the UK In my mind ( but without facts to hand ) that would be lower central pressure than any storm last year. It would be comparable to the storm of 1987 which whilst on a more southerly track only reached 953 MB- Whilst central pressure isnt the ultimate decider in final wind speeds - anything sub 945 will be in the top 10 uk storms of all time- Post that GFSP sees more amplification destined for scandi - However all the short term news will be the storm.....
  11. 16 points
    To all Southerners, may your snow dreams come true. Actually us Northerners wouldn't mind some of that either.
  12. 15 points
    Can we please drop this whole north vs south, imbyism debate. We all get it - people have different perspectives on the weather depending on where they live. Some apply those perspectives to their posts, some don't, does it really have to be discussed on a daily basis at the moment! There are no rules on the forum about location neutrality, as there aren't about people just looking for one type of weather and finding the rest 'boring'. It's a mixed forum, open to all comers and as long as it's on topic, respectful and friendly then it's fine, so please can we leave it there as it's got zilch to do with the model output.
  13. 15 points
    I commented yesterday about the exciting trend im seeing with regards to the PV and I shall explain further. I note BA has also commented on this. Take a look at where we currently are and im going to use the control run as an example. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-0.png?0 Core of the vortex well and truly located across Greenland hence the stormy pattern. Note at +168 a change occurs with a lobe W of Greenland and another across Russia and a deep LP across the UK. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010900/gensnh-0-1-168.png Now at +276 the PV is far weaker and less organised. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010900/gensnh-0-1-276.png At +384 the PV becomes stretched from Asia to Siberia. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?0 So what this means to me is this. After the potential N,ly spell around mid Jan I can see a more prolonged cold spell developing. This is because in my opinion the PV will not be centred across Greenland and instead the dominant vortex shall be across Siberia/Asia. The result of this will be HLB developing bringing a much colder spell of weather especially for the last week of Jan into Feb.
  14. 14 points
    Well, well, well. What do we have here then? Some support for the GEM perhaps? Edit: King Steve beat me to it!
  15. 13 points
    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015010918/gfsnh-0-192.png?18 GFS P swings to the GEM & ECM solution.. S
  16. 12 points
    This post from earlier seemingly fell on deaf ears then. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3110019 Don't be surprised if Paul and fellow moderators clamp down on some of the posts in here from now on. In future, can posters please clarify their own post as to whether they are focussing on the near-term or deep FI and whether their own thoughts are biased towards an IMBY perspective. My post from earlier mentioned some folk getting the wintry stuff and at longer timescales that is probably the most precise one can be over specifics regarding snowfall and snow lying probabilities. As we head into next week, there is no doubt in my mind that another bout of snow will visit those who have had some previously this Winter but also many other folk can join the transient snowfall party, however fleeting those snowflakes might turn out to be in the end. Enjoy, chill out as it's only January 9th and more appropriately it's FRIDAY.
  17. 12 points
    Yes Frosty,we are consistantly told we are ALL looking for/expecting sustained/prolonged cold,not true. The beeb this lunch saying what the models show short term"turning much colder Tuesday with snow showers" http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010900/ECU0-120.GIF?09-12 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010900/UW96-7.GIF?09-06 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-1-102.png?6 So, cold with snow showers for Northern Britain over weekend and two days later another colder shot affecting more of the UK....not too bad. I await the Radar with interest over the coming days swiftly followed by the lampost
  18. 12 points
    Very nice! Ens are looking nice AGAIN!! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=372&size= http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384 I really hope that the GEFS are onto something here. Us coldies have been so patient and surely it's time for our luck to finally change.
  19. 11 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY JANUARY 9TH 2015. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY JANUARY 10TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Further vigorous depressions will move East to the North of Scotland sweeping another broad mild sector across the UK today and followed by an active and squally cold front moving SE across all areas tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and often windy or even stormy and sometimes mild with rain at times. Possibly somewhat colder and drier at times later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream being maintained across the UK or just to the North in the short to mid term before it steadily weakens later as the result of a weakening vortex to the North of the UK. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to show very disturbed weather with another surge of powerful Low pressure shown about 1 week from now with severe gales and heavy rain followed by cold and showery conditions with some snow in places especially but not exclusively across the North. Later in the run things show signs of settling down as High pressure moves in close to the South with quieter and drier weather at that point. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is broadly similar in the first week with the same potent storm as the operational run shown to batter the UK 1 week from now with severe or storm force winds, heavy rain and some snow as cold air sweeps Southeast behind it. This depression marks the catalysts which brings about a change as building High pressure through the Atlantic brings cold North and then NE winds with snow showers for many for a time before a collapsing ridge across the UK brings a cold and frosty period followed by a reset pattern to wet, windy and milder conditions late in the period. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run too shows the powerful storm in a weeks time with it's attendant very wet and windy weather. the sequence thereafter is less dramatic from a wintry point of view bringing cold zonality with rain and sleet with snow showers at times most likely in often NW winds before something colder and still very unsettled sets up at the end of the run as Low pressure over the UK sinks SE. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a mixed viewpoint this morning with the main cluster supporting a strong rise of pressure from the SW towards Western Britain in two weeks time enhancing the risk of a Northerly flow with wintry showers across the UK. There is a more minimalistic support of 15% for a continuation of Low pressure to the North and High to the South continuing to drive the weather across the UK. UKMO UKMO continues to project very little change in the weather pattern across the UK over the next 6 days. Therefore a continuation of spells of very mild and windy weather with rain and occasional short periods of cold and bright weather with wintry showers this still principally across the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a continuing changeable theme surrounding two types of weather. One being mild, windy and occasionally wet weather and the other cold, windy and showery weather with some snow on hills across the North, the latter more likely later next week. GEM GEM today aso shows a powerful storm system in the vicinity of the UK a week from now with gales and heavy rain. This model too shows a change behind this storm to much colder weather across the UK from a much more Southerly Jet flow and a lessening of the vortex's strength to the North. With Low pressure close to the South and cold air entrained across the UK snow or sleet will be commonplace within a very unsettled setup in 10 days time. NAVGEM NAVGEM reflects no end to the Westerly flow either with often mild, wet and very windy conditions holding sway over the UK with short and colder periods with showers in between with little change in overall synoptics shown one week from now. It too shows another powerful storm system across the UK in a weeks time exacerbating the unsettled and stormy theme. ECM ECM this morning also shows a lot of strong Westerly winds with spells of rain and showers to come for all especially across the North. As with all other models it too shows a major storm system later next week but holds it further NW and tempering itt's affects a way from Southernmost parts somewhat. Because of this too the resulting change after it's passage is also muted into a broef collapsing ridge with a cold and bright interlude giving way soon after to a return to Atlantic Westerlies. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a trough across western Europe which should bring the Uk a good chance of a chilly North or NW flow with wintry showers. Low pressure is also likely to lie to the NW and this could indicate a cold zonal pattern with the Low to the NW feeding the trough East of the UK and maintaining rather colder and unsettled weather across the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains quite fluid but all models share in the theme of a deep Low later next week bringing a period of very volatile winds and rainfall and a possible change into something rather colder for a time on it's clearance East next weekend. MY THOUGHTS I think the main talikng point within the output this morning is the overwhelming support for another very powerful storm system crossing the Atlantic to lie in the vicinity of the British Isles a week from now. Some output puts this alarmingly across the top of the UK with storm force winds and heavy rain giving rise to disruption for a time late next week while ECM shows a little more relief in holding it more towards the NW and away from at least Southernmost parts. Wherever, it ends up is deterministic on the events thereafter and all output shows variations on this, most of which at least hinge on a spell of rather colder weather as pressure builds North on it's wake across the Atlantic. Something of a Northerly or North-easterly is shown for a time at least from some output with a heady cocktail of wintry precipitation across the UK as a result. However, if ECM is to be believed such a change to colder weather would be very short lived as the traditional toppling ridge soon shows milder West winds back in soon after Day 10. The GFS Clusters go one step further with this build of pressure ending up in two weeks time with the main of the clusters supporting a build of pressure close to the West of the UK with a Northerly flow promoting some cold weather with scattered wintry showers in places. In Summary it does look that the long sustained period of strong Westerly winds fuelled by a strong Jet stream is showing signs of weakening late next week and beyond. As the models are likely to show many different options of how this break in the pattern is expected to unfold over the coming days we will have to see how things develop but I certainly wouldn't rule out a change to colder conditions across the UK to end the month possibly with some snowfall.
  20. 11 points
    It does look more and more that, not perhaps a major pattern change, but enough of a shift in the upper air flow to bring more frequent polar maritime outbreaks south and a slow decrease in the storminess over the next 3-10 days. Beyond that and it is still not clear to me just what the upper pattern may be. The anomaly charts over the last 3-4 days are slowly shifting the emphasis from the very strong flow wobbling wnw-wsw as it has for a good many days, into a less strong flow WNW possibly even as far round as NW at times and less strong. Indications of ridging and height anomalies in the Atlantic. Still no real signal yet of any polar air being brought south but there remains the indications at times of the polar high ridging south. links for my views below. Also re a post I replied to in the Stratosphere thread and the 30mb temperature spike at 60N. The time scale for that would be anywhere 18-25 January if there is any truth in my suggestion. I need to check about 3 cases in previous winters when this did fit. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html and the MJO link as well GFS that is http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
  21. 10 points
    There's no sign of 'big totals'. Some accumulating snow looks quite likely across e.g. SW moors; Cotswolds; perhaps across to Chilterns too. But amounts don't look at all bothersome in the latest E4 diagnostics. At lower levels in the S, some transient sleety falls expected by UKMO later into Tuesday, as WBFL falls widely to circa 100m. But focus next week is the Weds-Thurs cyclogenesis event. Worth adding that latest EC clusters hint of more similar scenarios extending as a risk a fair way further on into the rest of Jan.
  22. 10 points
    I want to make yet another rebuttal on remarks about snow only falling to high ground again but I can see I am fighting a losing battle there so we will see what develops. If I am wrong I will eat the last hat I have remaining. Saturday will certainly be a remarkable day of contrast, these charts are for 12PM Saturday to 6PM Saturday - so just 6 hours apart. That is some cold front! And Dp's from 6AM to 12PM - again just 6 hours
  23. 10 points
    I dont see why people are worrying about the ecm 32 dayer. The medium range one is not always right at day 6 onwards.
  24. 10 points
    Continued hints of some snow for England during next week from GFS P it has to be said though NW Scotland looks the place to be for snow with over 12inches in places By 13:00 Sunday the snow is starting to mount up for NW Scotland with up-to 5cm for SW Scotland and NW England lower parts could also see some snow later tomorrow as temperatures plummet from around 13c to just 2 or 3c tomorrow afternoon in the north By 13:00 Monday most of the snow has melted but don't worry more is coming 24 hours later the snow is quickly mounting up again with 7 inches (19cm) in parts of NW Scotland snow starts to become more widespread again with a dusting possible as far south as Dartmoor Fast forward another 24 hrs to 13:00 Wednesday and the snow keeps on building for NW Scotland with the highest totals just short of 1ft snow in the south west starts spreading up towards Bristol but even places as far east as reading could see a dusting By Thursday the south looses the snow with NW Scotland also seeing a slight reduction with the highest totals down to 26cm (11 inches) The snow soon returns as we move into Friday with parts of the south west seeing a slight covering highest totals in NW Scotland are back upto 39c (15 inches) further east in Aviemore totals here are around 7 inches (18cm) Now skipping forward to the 18th a large stretch right down to the south coast sees a dusting back up in NW Scotland the highest totals look fairly stable whilst over in Aviemore a slight increase to 21cm (8 inches) is shown All in all we have continued hints of some snow for parts of England next week just need to see how things develop over the next 48 hrs or so
  25. 10 points
    Note AER AO forecast used the ECMWF MJO forecast, so perhaps they have more faith with it not reaching 7 and 8. Interesting that they think a weak MJO will help the minor SSW influence the trop later this month for a downtrend in AO. Quite a backpedalling from their previous AO forecast though. In the meantime, looking at 00z GEFS and EPS the mid-Atlantic ridge building N or NE theme never seems to go a way, with troughing in the means to our NE and E. Question is, will will we see an increased chance of northerlies or even northeasterlies (should the Atlantic ridge build NE) or will we just maintain a NW to SE aligned jet for rest of the month? Fortunately getting stuck in predominantly mild SWly flow seems more unlikely going forward ... so long as we maintain the troughing over Europe and the Azores high displaced west, so even though a sustained cold and wintry spell for all the UK remains out of reach, perhaps for most of Jan, the outlook could be a lot worse for coldies, though these storms rolling through are rather worrying for up north.
  26. 10 points
    Some stonking charts coming out tonight and these ensembles are great Definately the best set of the winter so far! We need this signal to be maintained, i think waiting 22 months is quite long enough for coldies thank you very much!!
  27. 9 points
    How about this for a day 8 mean? Anyone disappointed with that should either reevaluate their UK Winter cold expectations... or move to the North pole!
  28. 9 points
    Hello guys just a check in from me. mental night extreme wind speeds as you know 113 mph 5 mins down the road from me and extensive damage!! Trees down, power lines down, buildings damage. cars flipped. windows blown out. this should have been red I feel.
  29. 9 points
    I will let these GFS 12z op run charts speak for themselves, for most of the run its reload after reload of polar maritime and arctic air bringing snow showers, ice and frosts with just short milder, wet and windy interludes, we would all see at least some snow, not just the north. This is a huge improvement on what the models were showing as recently as Monday this week.
  30. 8 points
    Day 9 is fine from the ECM, the Azores high is pretty much primed to move westwards and allow the next low to sink south eastwards through the UK. As we have low heights over Central/southern Europe blocking the eastward movement of the high. Cold day 10 chart with potentially colder air moving in later on. It's not a blocking pattern but we are start to see the pattern tilt more NW/SE which brings more areas into play with respect to potential snowfall.
  31. 8 points
    Much better ECM if you like cold, slack low heights with fairly cold upper air temperatures could lead to some pretty cold days, also snow potential from small scale disturbances in the flow: There is still a storm of sorts, you can see it lining up at +120, but it seems a much shallower feature than on the GFS (P) and doesn't have as much of a warm sector: I thought it'd be more of an outlier than it was but looking at it the JMA doesn't look too dissimilar either, nor does the GEM (although still potentially damaging winds for southern England): We saw the less intense modelling of the Boxing Day low win out, so I wouldn't discount the less severe option winning out, especially considering how rare and intense a 930mb low tracking directly over Scotland actually is.
  32. 8 points
    oh go on don't forget to mention days 4,5,6 with-7 uppers.
  33. 8 points
    Though storms are rightly the main focus for next week, disruptive snowfall looks sure to happen too. First, Sunday morning - places like Belfast, Edinburgh and Newcastle could be covered: Into next week and although the GFS snow charts are notorious for phantom snow events, snow is flying about all over the place on them: I think there is some justification in these charts, as I have rarely seen such a potent PM period coming up - usually 850s from these scenarios are around -4C, which is why we associate them with "high ground" only events - but I'm seeing a lot of -6C / -7C 850s in the days ahead - it could make all the difference. An interesting week ahead.
  34. 7 points
    Short ECM ENS for de bilt. Interesting that both the op and the Control are very close to being ice days at Days 9 and 10. And looking at the Extended ENS the Control stays cold pretty much right through to the end (Day 15)
  35. 7 points
    haha i must laugh 1 day out of 14 days the one very high upper air chart that could possibly be wrong. but the models are still throwing out wintry stormy wet weather and once again eye candy charts becoming more and more common. some very extreme weather ahead and lots of snow for some even something wintry futher south is possible especially with -6 uppers over a large swathe of the uk. of coarse add in heavier bursts snow is a big feature futher north with blizzard condition but also wintry weather futher south and always a possibility of a channel low now if this happens and it gets futher south this could well divert any heights to our sw or even west. so to my eyes i see a trend building towards a colder and colder set up still strongly believe latter jan and perhaps start of feb could well be below average.
  36. 7 points
    I think i will make the most of my last few days in Yorkshire as i knew it. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-0-144.png?6
  37. 7 points
    Of course this didn't constitute a red warning. "All rail services in Scotland have been suspended until at least 10:00 as a storm caused gusts of more than 100mph (160km/h) to hit the country. About 70,000 homes have been left without power in the Highlands and Islands as the Atlantic jet stream brought down trees and caused damage."
  38. 6 points
    Ok, see you next Winter! That chart you've posted just illustrates what the gfs has been trying to do for a few days now in FI and that is transfer the main core of the PV over to the siberian side. A great trend to be constantly seeing in it's output. And it's brother agrees with it...
  39. 6 points
    The cold looks like dominating through the trend period, with mild weather rather transient. Further chances of snow for the North of the UK through the coming 10 days, and even to the south if the ECM verifies.
  40. 6 points
  41. 6 points
    Wow no storm on the ECM 144 - Infact it looks like the GEM-
  42. 6 points
    Dew points are predicted to be widely sub zero at times with 850's around -7. We are not talking FI here or just one model so I think 850's will be about right for this weekend and next week. Whether snow accumulates temporarily to any low ground or not will be quite hit and miss but I'm 99% sure parts of Northern England wills ee snow falling without the aid of being stuck up a hill. Oh I agree and have said so many times. I'm not suggesting it is ideal winter fare. Just that stating snow will be restricted to higher ground over the next 10 days is almost certainly an inaccurate statement and not truly reflective of the current model output IMO.
  43. 6 points
    I would call it a surprise snowfall set-up. It is a pattern that can catch people out with surprise snowfalls that were not anticipated. I can give historical examples, the day before the Burns storm of 1990. Snow fell across parts of North Wales, Northern England and North Midlands, caught the forecasters out.
  44. 6 points
    Snow will get to low levels in N England through the next 10 days at times, not sure why people have so much difficulty with this?
  45. 6 points
    again the obsession with snow + cold masking the fact the models still showing this at T+144 range - thats a record breaking storm, 935mb, be destructive in the central belt if that verifies
  46. 6 points
    Gfs 12z is a huge upgrade for low level snow, northern england/northwest england and perhaps north midlands!
  47. 6 points
    Morning all Todays outputs are a good example of how northern and southern jet stream interaction upstream can be the determining factor at least for the medium term. You'll see the GFS is basically pants because it has the southern stream dominant and does not phase those two streams over the ne USA. The GFS P has the northern stream dominant and phases this with a shortwave running ne from the Gulf of Mexico, the ECM does phase but isn't quite as good upstream at that point. Regardless of those differences it looks like this first attempt at cold might not last too long unless that is after any toppling of the ridge the next low cuts se to the west of the UK and we see sufficient pressure rises to the ne. So for those hoping for at least the GFS P to verify you need favourable upstream phasing and sufficient amplitude, you'll note comments from NCEP this morning: THE FULL MODEL/ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE FOR PSBL SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC BECOMES QUITE BROAD... INDICATING THE DIFFICULTY OF THE FCST BY WED-FRI. SFC EVOLUTION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STREAM INTERACTION DETAILS THAT ARE TYPICALLY NOT WELL RESOLVED 5-7 DAYS OUT IN TIME.
  48. 6 points
    in broad terms the back end of PTRB 17 on the 12z gefs is a representation of where I think the NH pattern is going. Within two weeks would be a bit quick though.
  49. 6 points
    These 18z snow charts are so pretty, compared to where we were last week with very few crumbs of comfort, things are really kicking off now. I think we are close to some nice snowy surprises during the next few weeks.
  50. 6 points
    The chance of snow on Saturday looks remote too me
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