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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/01/15 in all areas

  1. 31 points
    Quite conceivably. MOGREPS is particularly strong on the colder NW'ly signal towards same period and agreement on a generally colder theme is consistent across all output. How long this phase lasts is another matter, however (especially judging from yesterday's EC Monthly suite, but I've not yet seen if GloSea offers consensus).
  2. 22 points
    Thank all of you guys for your help tonight, I'll give you guys a update on what the outcome was when I find out. I do know that the roof (some how) managed to stay attached, it's going to look bad in the morning as next doors garage roof has been lifted clean off n is now spread over mums drive way. But thank u so much u
  3. 19 points
    Seemed to get off quite lightly last night considering. One of the farm buildings round by lost their roof but other than that just wheelie bins and guttering. I woke up around 3 and it sounded pretty quiet and again around 4 and the house was shaking so I was fearing the worst! I think the highest gust was around 85mph? So pretty bad but nothing like the western isles and we've definitely felt worse, damage wise at least. Just waiting to see what tomorrow brings. Hope everyone's safe! finally decided to post after years of lurking.
  4. 18 points
    morning all - Im not normally one to comment on storms as they are really par for the course t'up North, however both the GFS & GFS (p) are pretty well alligned at 150 with a sub 945 system crossing the UK In my mind ( but without facts to hand ) that would be lower central pressure than any storm last year. It would be comparable to the storm of 1987 which whilst on a more southerly track only reached 953 MB- Whilst central pressure isnt the ultimate decider in final wind speeds - anything sub 945 will be in the top 10 uk storms of all time- Post that GFSP sees more amplification destined for scandi - However all the short term news will be the storm.....
  5. 16 points
    To all Southerners, may your snow dreams come true. Actually us Northerners wouldn't mind some of that either.
  6. 15 points
    Can we please drop this whole north vs south, imbyism debate. We all get it - people have different perspectives on the weather depending on where they live. Some apply those perspectives to their posts, some don't, does it really have to be discussed on a daily basis at the moment! There are no rules on the forum about location neutrality, as there aren't about people just looking for one type of weather and finding the rest 'boring'. It's a mixed forum, open to all comers and as long as it's on topic, respectful and friendly then it's fine, so please can we leave it there as it's got zilch to do with the model output.
  7. 15 points
    I commented yesterday about the exciting trend im seeing with regards to the PV and I shall explain further. I note BA has also commented on this. Take a look at where we currently are and im going to use the control run as an example. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-0.png?0 Core of the vortex well and truly located across Greenland hence the stormy pattern. Note at +168 a change occurs with a lobe W of Greenland and another across Russia and a deep LP across the UK. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010900/gensnh-0-1-168.png Now at +276 the PV is far weaker and less organised. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010900/gensnh-0-1-276.png At +384 the PV becomes stretched from Asia to Siberia. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?0 So what this means to me is this. After the potential N,ly spell around mid Jan I can see a more prolonged cold spell developing. This is because in my opinion the PV will not be centred across Greenland and instead the dominant vortex shall be across Siberia/Asia. The result of this will be HLB developing bringing a much colder spell of weather especially for the last week of Jan into Feb.
  8. 15 points
    I've often felt the Metoffice take the "it's Scotland, they're used to it" approach when it comes to storms like this. If it was the south coast or the south east, they would have issued a red warning days ago.
  9. 13 points
    The GFS has clearly decided that we got off too lightly this time: Those are sustained winds by the way, gusts easily 90-100mph. The track keeps changing so hopefully it'll weaken and end up much further north/south (long term further south probably best). Still looks decent for snow tomorrow afternoon/evening, again more marginal the further south/west you are (and probably not quite as cold as EURO4 shows) but what falls will almost certainly be snow from about midday through to Sunday morning, so with a bit of luck, and a bit of intensity, we could well see some decent accumulations to low levels. The consensus seems to be that temperatures for most start off around 3-4C at midday (down drastically from the 12C we could see tonight) before getting down to 1-2C. West of Glasgow may see temperatures struggle to get below 3C except in the heaviest showers and that would obviously mean a lack of accumulations but certainly looks like showers should get right through to the North Sea fairly easily. As ever, it looks pretty good for both MoffatRoss and NL to get a few cms, hopefully the rest of us can join in as well this time: EURO4 suggesting 10cm for the Lothians, D+G, Moray and Inverness, and 5-10cm for most of the rest of us, but if we got half that I'd be chuffed:
  10. 12 points
    Yes Frosty,we are consistantly told we are ALL looking for/expecting sustained/prolonged cold,not true. The beeb this lunch saying what the models show short term"turning much colder Tuesday with snow showers" http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010900/ECU0-120.GIF?09-12 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010900/UW96-7.GIF?09-06 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-1-102.png?6 So, cold with snow showers for Northern Britain over weekend and two days later another colder shot affecting more of the UK....not too bad. I await the Radar with interest over the coming days swiftly followed by the lampost
  11. 12 points
    Very nice! Ens are looking nice AGAIN!! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=372&size= http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384 I really hope that the GEFS are onto something here. Us coldies have been so patient and surely it's time for our luck to finally change.
  12. 11 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY JANUARY 9TH 2015. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY JANUARY 10TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Further vigorous depressions will move East to the North of Scotland sweeping another broad mild sector across the UK today and followed by an active and squally cold front moving SE across all areas tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and often windy or even stormy and sometimes mild with rain at times. Possibly somewhat colder and drier at times later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream being maintained across the UK or just to the North in the short to mid term before it steadily weakens later as the result of a weakening vortex to the North of the UK. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to show very disturbed weather with another surge of powerful Low pressure shown about 1 week from now with severe gales and heavy rain followed by cold and showery conditions with some snow in places especially but not exclusively across the North. Later in the run things show signs of settling down as High pressure moves in close to the South with quieter and drier weather at that point. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is broadly similar in the first week with the same potent storm as the operational run shown to batter the UK 1 week from now with severe or storm force winds, heavy rain and some snow as cold air sweeps Southeast behind it. This depression marks the catalysts which brings about a change as building High pressure through the Atlantic brings cold North and then NE winds with snow showers for many for a time before a collapsing ridge across the UK brings a cold and frosty period followed by a reset pattern to wet, windy and milder conditions late in the period. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run too shows the powerful storm in a weeks time with it's attendant very wet and windy weather. the sequence thereafter is less dramatic from a wintry point of view bringing cold zonality with rain and sleet with snow showers at times most likely in often NW winds before something colder and still very unsettled sets up at the end of the run as Low pressure over the UK sinks SE. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a mixed viewpoint this morning with the main cluster supporting a strong rise of pressure from the SW towards Western Britain in two weeks time enhancing the risk of a Northerly flow with wintry showers across the UK. There is a more minimalistic support of 15% for a continuation of Low pressure to the North and High to the South continuing to drive the weather across the UK. UKMO UKMO continues to project very little change in the weather pattern across the UK over the next 6 days. Therefore a continuation of spells of very mild and windy weather with rain and occasional short periods of cold and bright weather with wintry showers this still principally across the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a continuing changeable theme surrounding two types of weather. One being mild, windy and occasionally wet weather and the other cold, windy and showery weather with some snow on hills across the North, the latter more likely later next week. GEM GEM today aso shows a powerful storm system in the vicinity of the UK a week from now with gales and heavy rain. This model too shows a change behind this storm to much colder weather across the UK from a much more Southerly Jet flow and a lessening of the vortex's strength to the North. With Low pressure close to the South and cold air entrained across the UK snow or sleet will be commonplace within a very unsettled setup in 10 days time. NAVGEM NAVGEM reflects no end to the Westerly flow either with often mild, wet and very windy conditions holding sway over the UK with short and colder periods with showers in between with little change in overall synoptics shown one week from now. It too shows another powerful storm system across the UK in a weeks time exacerbating the unsettled and stormy theme. ECM ECM this morning also shows a lot of strong Westerly winds with spells of rain and showers to come for all especially across the North. As with all other models it too shows a major storm system later next week but holds it further NW and tempering itt's affects a way from Southernmost parts somewhat. Because of this too the resulting change after it's passage is also muted into a broef collapsing ridge with a cold and bright interlude giving way soon after to a return to Atlantic Westerlies. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a trough across western Europe which should bring the Uk a good chance of a chilly North or NW flow with wintry showers. Low pressure is also likely to lie to the NW and this could indicate a cold zonal pattern with the Low to the NW feeding the trough East of the UK and maintaining rather colder and unsettled weather across the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains quite fluid but all models share in the theme of a deep Low later next week bringing a period of very volatile winds and rainfall and a possible change into something rather colder for a time on it's clearance East next weekend. MY THOUGHTS I think the main talikng point within the output this morning is the overwhelming support for another very powerful storm system crossing the Atlantic to lie in the vicinity of the British Isles a week from now. Some output puts this alarmingly across the top of the UK with storm force winds and heavy rain giving rise to disruption for a time late next week while ECM shows a little more relief in holding it more towards the NW and away from at least Southernmost parts. Wherever, it ends up is deterministic on the events thereafter and all output shows variations on this, most of which at least hinge on a spell of rather colder weather as pressure builds North on it's wake across the Atlantic. Something of a Northerly or North-easterly is shown for a time at least from some output with a heady cocktail of wintry precipitation across the UK as a result. However, if ECM is to be believed such a change to colder weather would be very short lived as the traditional toppling ridge soon shows milder West winds back in soon after Day 10. The GFS Clusters go one step further with this build of pressure ending up in two weeks time with the main of the clusters supporting a build of pressure close to the West of the UK with a Northerly flow promoting some cold weather with scattered wintry showers in places. In Summary it does look that the long sustained period of strong Westerly winds fuelled by a strong Jet stream is showing signs of weakening late next week and beyond. As the models are likely to show many different options of how this break in the pattern is expected to unfold over the coming days we will have to see how things develop but I certainly wouldn't rule out a change to colder conditions across the UK to end the month possibly with some snowfall.
  13. 11 points
    It does look more and more that, not perhaps a major pattern change, but enough of a shift in the upper air flow to bring more frequent polar maritime outbreaks south and a slow decrease in the storminess over the next 3-10 days. Beyond that and it is still not clear to me just what the upper pattern may be. The anomaly charts over the last 3-4 days are slowly shifting the emphasis from the very strong flow wobbling wnw-wsw as it has for a good many days, into a less strong flow WNW possibly even as far round as NW at times and less strong. Indications of ridging and height anomalies in the Atlantic. Still no real signal yet of any polar air being brought south but there remains the indications at times of the polar high ridging south. links for my views below. Also re a post I replied to in the Stratosphere thread and the 30mb temperature spike at 60N. The time scale for that would be anywhere 18-25 January if there is any truth in my suggestion. I need to check about 3 cases in previous winters when this did fit. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html and the MJO link as well GFS that is http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
  14. 11 points
  15. 10 points
    Continued hints of some snow for England during next week from GFS P it has to be said though NW Scotland looks the place to be for snow with over 12inches in places By 13:00 Sunday the snow is starting to mount up for NW Scotland with up-to 5cm for SW Scotland and NW England lower parts could also see some snow later tomorrow as temperatures plummet from around 13c to just 2 or 3c tomorrow afternoon in the north By 13:00 Monday most of the snow has melted but don't worry more is coming 24 hours later the snow is quickly mounting up again with 7 inches (19cm) in parts of NW Scotland snow starts to become more widespread again with a dusting possible as far south as Dartmoor Fast forward another 24 hrs to 13:00 Wednesday and the snow keeps on building for NW Scotland with the highest totals just short of 1ft snow in the south west starts spreading up towards Bristol but even places as far east as reading could see a dusting By Thursday the south looses the snow with NW Scotland also seeing a slight reduction with the highest totals down to 26cm (11 inches) The snow soon returns as we move into Friday with parts of the south west seeing a slight covering highest totals in NW Scotland are back upto 39c (15 inches) further east in Aviemore totals here are around 7 inches (18cm) Now skipping forward to the 18th a large stretch right down to the south coast sees a dusting back up in NW Scotland the highest totals look fairly stable whilst over in Aviemore a slight increase to 21cm (8 inches) is shown All in all we have continued hints of some snow for parts of England next week just need to see how things develop over the next 48 hrs or so
  16. 10 points
    Note AER AO forecast used the ECMWF MJO forecast, so perhaps they have more faith with it not reaching 7 and 8. Interesting that they think a weak MJO will help the minor SSW influence the trop later this month for a downtrend in AO. Quite a backpedalling from their previous AO forecast though. In the meantime, looking at 00z GEFS and EPS the mid-Atlantic ridge building N or NE theme never seems to go a way, with troughing in the means to our NE and E. Question is, will will we see an increased chance of northerlies or even northeasterlies (should the Atlantic ridge build NE) or will we just maintain a NW to SE aligned jet for rest of the month? Fortunately getting stuck in predominantly mild SWly flow seems more unlikely going forward ... so long as we maintain the troughing over Europe and the Azores high displaced west, so even though a sustained cold and wintry spell for all the UK remains out of reach, perhaps for most of Jan, the outlook could be a lot worse for coldies, though these storms rolling through are rather worrying for up north.
  17. 10 points
    Don't post much on this site...and never before on this regional thread. Just want to send you all my thoughts and prayers and hope you all stay safe and get whatever help and assistance you may need. xxx
  18. 10 points
    One wonders just exactly what would it have to look like for a Red, if this doesn't merit one...
  19. 10 points
    Some stonking charts coming out tonight and these ensembles are great Definately the best set of the winter so far! We need this signal to be maintained, i think waiting 22 months is quite long enough for coldies thank you very much!!
  20. 9 points
  21. 8 points
    Though storms are rightly the main focus for next week, disruptive snowfall looks sure to happen too. First, Sunday morning - places like Belfast, Edinburgh and Newcastle could be covered: Into next week and although the GFS snow charts are notorious for phantom snow events, snow is flying about all over the place on them: I think there is some justification in these charts, as I have rarely seen such a potent PM period coming up - usually 850s from these scenarios are around -4C, which is why we associate them with "high ground" only events - but I'm seeing a lot of -6C / -7C 850s in the days ahead - it could make all the difference. An interesting week ahead.
  22. 8 points
    dew points good ppn good starting to think of a mini ramp
  23. 7 points
    I think i will make the most of my last few days in Yorkshire as i knew it. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-0-144.png?6
  24. 7 points
    Of course this didn't constitute a red warning. "All rail services in Scotland have been suspended until at least 10:00 as a storm caused gusts of more than 100mph (160km/h) to hit the country. About 70,000 homes have been left without power in the Highlands and Islands as the Atlantic jet stream brought down trees and caused damage."
  25. 7 points
    I assume this is the guy that usually gives the interpretations of the WSI charts. What he is trying to say, is that this warming is a 3 sigma event, which means the warming anomaly is 3 times the standard deviation. The reason it is so high, is because usually or climatologicaly speaking, there is the vortex core over that region with temps from -65 to -80 or less.
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