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Showing content with the highest reputation on 30/11/14 in all areas

  1. Although the recent model runs have produced some tantalising possibilities of a northerly blast in the coming days, there has been no consistent trend in that direction. However, the current setup has some intriguing potential which is worth mentioning. Before I do though, I must say that this last week the models over overestimated the eastward progression of Atlantic systems, with the European HP holding its ground quite well. The upper vortex to our south will, while it lasts, inevitably lead to some form of upper ridge to the W, and the models take this and predict some transient HP for
    38 points
  2. Here's my winter forecast for 2014/15. BACKGROUND In putting this together, I considered 7 different factors, some looking at their current state and others at their projected state during winter. I then compared these with previous years back to 1967 (where the data goes back that far), gave the factors in each year a score based on it's similarity to this year, and then assigned a weighting for each factor.( I won't go describing what each of the factors is in detail, or the influence they have, as this has been done by several forecasts already this year.) Below shows the fac
    20 points
  3. A lot of disappointment creeping in ref the flattening of the ridge later on. I'm not really sure why, it was never seriously on the cards. Everything on track for about 10-14 days onwards for a realistic opportunity of some proper amplification. And in the meantime, despite the (almost desperate) insistence by some it will be otherwise, it will be turning colder. Oh and this zonal train fuelled by the cold start in the US must be running late...
    20 points
  4. Hard to say, I find those weatherbell charts pretty but annoying to read... to the point I don't bother to click on them. I wish you'd put up wz charts instead as sometimes you make good sense.
    17 points
  5. I hate to pour cold water on some of the hopes in here. Really apart from the cold 'feel' to this week for most compared to what most areas have had over the last weeks there is currently little sign of any marked change. The upper pattern shows, see below for the general idea, http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php that is a flow from about WSW at 500mb for much of the period, and this is a consistent signal with NOAA over the past few days. This does allow for a 48h colder spell if everything falls right at the right time as cold air flows down the western side of a
    15 points
  6. A glance through GFS suggests a risk of snow wintry showers developing in the north later in the week and into the following Not much of a risk away from the Scottish mountains on Saturday before the risk rises again late Sunday and into the Monday (8th) So in the semi reliable timeframe and also backed up by the beeb we could see some wintry showers / longer spells of snow starting to develop in the north later in the week. Better than the Atlantic train of storms last December! ps the 00z had snow in the south I just didn't have time to post the charts earlier
    15 points
  7. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 1ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Slack pressure over the UK will prevail with weak troughs slowly clearing SE but returning SW across the East later today. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to highlight a generally flat Jet S
    14 points
  8. Going to issue an update of previous forecast, same general theme but seeing a colder balance between mild and very cold spells. DEC -- After a few mild days some cold anticyclonic conditions will develop, and with retrogression indicated, this may turn into an exceptionally cold mid-month period with below freezing temperatures in daytime and heavy snowfalls in eastern England and many parts of Scotland as well as exposed coasts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This bitter blast may be followed by slightly milder temperatures around Christmas and New Years but there is so
    14 points
  9. Nothing has changed since my last post, good riddance mild muck, hello and welcome to relatively much lower temperatures, especially overnight with frosts becoming more widespread along with fog patches which may linger in places with temps not much above freezing. A cold Northerly incursion is still likely by the end of the week with showers turning wintry in the north and looking further ahead, more frosts and the best of the fine weather in the south, more generally unsettled further north and west with average temps and persistent rain interspersed with colder,brighter and showery weather
    13 points
  10. Key similarities between all models this evening and that is for core position of heights to remain out to our west allowing the atlantic to attack from the NW by the end of the week - giving most likely higher ground in the north the first widespread snowfall of the season (rather late it has to be said). Another similiarity is the projection for the Polar Vortex to splinter somewhat away from Siberia and energy transferred to Canada/Greenland - though no major strengthening, it still looks to be in a fractured volatile weak state. Longer term - the signs are there for a generally uns
    13 points
  11. Since there doesn't look to be any major cold outbreak in the next 10 days at least, and the knowledgeable think the cold will come after the middle of December, It is probably worthwhile looking at signs of this happening. The most important thing is the placement and strength of the Polar Vortex. There has been a trend for days now for the Polar Vortex to move to the East, and the low heights over Greenland to move away. ECM at day 9 shows this: At day 10 we see a very weak Polar Vortex, which the guys over on the Stratosphere thread expect to happen as we move into the middle/latte
    13 points
  12. Quite a nice run from ECM tonight, pretty much sub-zero uppers all the way through. Its lovely to see the UK covered in blue!! Welcome back winter was just wondering if the low pressure at the end would bring us snow next Monday/Tuesday? We'd have been in -4 850s for a couple of days and then the fronts and showers would come through in cold air too? Id hope for some wintryness at least on hills quite far south? Upon closer inspection, the uppers are actualy -5 from Midlands northwards, with pockets of -6 tucked in there:
    8 points
  13. Well i,v actually watched the GFS unfold today not usually what i do , certainly looks like our vortex Could be migrating east but as we all know a very unpredictable traveller who likes to park itself in comfortable well known locations where it feels at home ,so a possibility that it Could give us a taste of winter if as modeled today .But cant help but notice high pressure to our s west is also well modeled ,All a real pickle past 7/8 days so lets hope tonights ecm and others can shed some light ,but we are sat i think in a good position for possibilitys, enough changing spread in models al
    8 points
  14. Sorry MODS if this is in the wrong place. BBC forecast for the week ahead and unusually looking at next weekend and a little beyond... the `s` word is mentioned http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30268791
    8 points
  15. Thank you kindly EML Network. I could just be talking a load of rubbish (not for the first time!) but I tend to trust my instincts when I spot something unusual or in some way significant in the model runs. You make some valid comments in your post re the movement of HP over the next week or so with cold fronts in between. I think we tend to forget sometimes that a great part of our day-to-day weather is pretty ordinary, but with, it seems, increasing incidence of more extreme conditions. Half the fun of model watching is being able to detect real signs of such events in advance as well as s
    8 points
  16. So UKMO gives up the ghost this morning and joins the others in their flat nirvana. The ECM once it decided to drop the more amplified upstream has become progressively more flat with each run. Overall after alot of uncertainty the models have settled on a rather uneventful outlook. Turning somewhat colder with high pressure never too far away. The ECM has dropped its mini tease re the high retrogressing and unfortunately is actually in tune with whats expected over the USA, a flat zonal picture is expected over there. If you want to draw on a positive at least the PV hasn't reform
    8 points
  17. At last GEM has ditched its outlier op runs and is more in line with last night's UKMO at D6: And flattens out afterwards: UKMO this morning: That northerly is very brief and rather underwhelming and that assumes it will not continue to be downgraded. This morning GFS op plays with the LP system at around D8 that develops as it interacts with the jet. I have been watching this for a few days in case it does cause mid-latitude disruption, however it has been rather anonymous till the GFS 0z op. Today it sends WAA on its back end and we develop a temporary Greenland ridge. Again i
    8 points
  18. I don't think we should be so quick to trash a northerly on w/c 8th December. The latest run was one of the mildest of the ensembles. Sorry if this has already been mentioned
    7 points
  19. Yes, ECM has all but dropped it's several northerlies, so too has GEM and the models have very much moved into line. However, we have also lost the dreadful Biscay High charts Gfs was putting out a few days ago so we are left with very benign conditions with dry weather a few frosts and temperatures never far from normal. For early winter it could be worse and it many ways it's the ultimate blank canvas and anything could happen. Be thankful that you didn't book a late November break to the Canary Islands which are enduring repeated storms as cut off lows slide underneath the mid Atlantic H
    7 points
  20. Looking at the GEM control, it again does not support the D10 GEM op: Its mean is more in line with the GFS mean: The ECM mean does not marry with the GEM or GFS mean in that it sends energy through Siberia feeding the N. Pacific PV lobe, allowing the Greenland/NE Canada PV to drain. Completely different NH synoptics and important for D10+ for the UK NH quadrant: Bearing in mind GFS has proven better at the D8-10 pattern of late I slightly favour their outcome. Good call for the UKMO pros to go with the GFS over ECM a couple of days ago re the mid week ridge.
    7 points
  21. not sure why a commercial numerical weather prediction model, or its creators, would have a "marketing ploy" or "seek attention" by being inaccurate...
    7 points
  22. There are a few off topic and one-liner posts creeping into the discussion.........I'm not going to remove them as we're approaching the season of goodwill and all that stuff.......(actually, I'm just very lazy) but if you can bare it in mind, it'll be much appreciated........cheers
    6 points
  23. I can promise knocker that most breezes in the next two weeks will feel cold! Still think Decent amplification will appear week 2 somewhere between the east coast of America and w Russia. Exactly where remains the question. If it doesn't, then the alternative is probably a sinking upper trough which would be cold and unsettled.
    6 points
  24. The atlantic low which has now transferred to the western Med is drawing up some exceptionally warm air from Africa with 28 C at Palermo in Sicily at midnight. Some of the warm air is filtering into parts of mainly southern europe. The low is modelled to expand NE wards over the next few days and is expected to back the flow over southern UK drawing in colder air form further east. At the same time the atlantic ridge is modelled to extend across the middle of the UK. An increasingly cold week looks likely for much of the UK as the warm air currently over the UK is gradually replaced by a feed
    6 points
  25. Just to clarify now that i am able to post charts. UKMO nice early winter chart http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 vortex shifting west to east. GFS Has the vortex correcting eastward too and i feel the ukmo will follow something similar. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014113000/gfsnh-0-192.png?0 ECM Polar Vortex as of today http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014113000/ECH1-0.GIF?30-12 And by the end of the run http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014113000/ECH1-240.GIF?30-12 GEM http://model
    6 points
  26. Tonights model headlines sponsored by the Star Wars Trilogy appreciation society and not those dismal prequels! The ECM after being lauded by NCEP for the last few days has decided it wants to join the dark side Darth Vader, however its not quite as dark as the Emperor GFS and GFS P. The UKMO alias Luke Skywalker with amplified light sabre stands in their way, the GEM alias Princess Leia including dodgy hairstyle is ready to join the fight. The JMA that dodgy bloke from the Empire Strikes Back who betrays Han Solo but then decides it wants to develop pressure towards Scandi.
    6 points
  27. I have to agree with you. Theres no sign of any deep cold being able to head sufficiently south and PM air really doesn't cut it unless you're high up, the models especially the GEFS tend to overplay the southwards extent of cold upper air at longer range. This is especially when this cold advection is not in connection with HLB, the pattern over the USA is expected to be flat zonal for at least the next ten days, in terms of positives from the output at least the Azores high is expected to remain displaced to the west and the PV although reforming to the north is then expected to break up
    5 points
  28. The GEFS T240 anomaly. Some upstream amplification, trough Pole/Greenland and swathe of HP eastern seaboard through to eastern Europe. The jet basically funneled between the two Atlantic systems Upshot of this on the surface is not much change in the overall picture with LP Iceland area and HP below. Temps a little below average. Moving on into the future the main indication is that the Pole/Greenland trough will move east and south and possibly disrupting the HP to the south and could introduce an easterly. Oh. Charts weatherbell (for those that can read them)
    5 points
  29. Sorry AJ and coming from a moderator, I wouldn't setting a good example but all I can say is OMG! In fact I'll attach a chart for folks for good measure, this will NOT verify as shown but Christmas would have come early if it even went close for those who like a wintry bite to their winter weather. Off to watch the darts now, goodbye all and behave for AJ. *the chart actually looks better than it what would be produced by it in reality, but who cares* December 1st tomorrow, here we come.*
    5 points
  30. I only really remember the date of snow because of naming my piccys as Nov-10 snow. Came as a bit of a surprise, if I'm not mistaken.
    5 points
  31. Good afternoon on the last day of Autumn , fellow posters .generally all output today points to a fairly quiet spell of weather ,Ok it will be turning Cooler as we go through this week with some frosts Fog perhaps some wintryness over fairly high elevations and a promise of some sunny early winter sunshine .but as we approach the later stages of next weekend and early the following week Alot of uncertainty in my opinion .some Data pointing towards an attack from the north /west others saying pressure will be high from azores to europe .But remember last December ,Mother nature was cooking up s
    5 points
  32. Can't really argue with those weightings BFTV. Good luck. With so many forecasts suggesting the same it'll probably be the warmest winter on record!!!
    5 points
  33. Thank you for all the hard work hat went into that BFTV, interesting that you and others tend to favour below rather than above average temperatures overall this winter. Even more so when the model data from weather centres suggests the opposite. It is going to be an interesting 3 month period as we see how this plays out. thanks again,
    5 points
  34. I think your charts are from a pay website so cannot be linked as the animation - FIM is free to view and here's the same parameter in animation format. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2014113000&plotName=ptemp_pv2&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=201 Full menu. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=201&run_time=30+Nov+2014+-+00Z
    5 points
  35. Great post, written with the maturity and knowledge I could only dream of having !! To my untrained and very much bedroom enthusiast eye, Looking further ahead (which always going to be about looking for trends ??), IMO that there really doesn't seem to be one and when there's a lack of trend in the models it tells me that a half way house between what is being shown is the most likely outcome. To that end I wouldn't be surprised if after this week, we see a continuation of the UK being stuck between High pressure to the West, and High pressure to the East with Low pressure squeezing
    5 points
  36. A glance at the GEFS and ECM anomalies this morning. Broad agreement at T168 with troughs Canada - Greenland - Russia. HP Siberia/Pole and a swathe of HP America to Europe. Surface analysis much the same as now with HP dominating the Atlantic and LP relegated to the north centred around Iceland. At T240 the similarities take a parting of the ways. Amplification upstream and the Canadian trough now aligned south from the pole down the eastern seaboard with a branch line just west of Norway. HP eastern Atlantic and eastern Europe. The ECM has the HP America to mid Atlantic but the Ca
    5 points
  37. Following on from what the Captain said, let's keep this thread friendly please. We don't want to have to put some of you in the naughty chair... Just a quick summary of some of the models, but it looks as though some kind of cold Polar Maritime blast looks possible very late next week and into the weekend, maybe with a chance of something wintry for some. Whether it will be a cool/cold blast from the North-West, or from the North, would still depend how much amplification that can be achieved to the West of the UK. Some models like the ECMWF, though, generally keeps the UK locked into a f
    5 points
  38. Having flicked through the output and read a couple of posts I have come to the conclusion that the week ahead is getting steadily colder.UKMO at 144 says cold that's as far as it goes.ECM cold run.Gfs also cold.Welcome winter.Most of the charts have been posted above and how some find fault at this early juncture is open to debate.
    5 points
  39. Bringeth it Oneth 00z Tuesday potential albeit altitude at 1800ft. Then 5th to the 7th at the far end of reliable (+144?) but this has been trending on quite a few runs - we will as ever see. (Back home visiting relatives in Cumbria on 7th so the sledge will be in the boot.) Happy Advent Sunday everyone. Ian
    5 points
  40. Don't understand the negativity on here tonight, ECM looks very good too me. Polar Vortex moving East away from Greenland, ridging towards Greenland from the Atlantic. If day 10 verified we would be in a brilliant position.
    5 points
  41. Hey.....I've got a great idea! Why don't we create a thread where we can actually discuss the current model output?.......what a novel concept! ....yes, you've guessed it, several posts are about to be binned for being off topic and rather personal
    5 points
  42. I always wonder when I see this type of response at what timescale you think that we should stop trying to predict the weather for - because you must have one in mind. Is it 3 days, 5 days, a week, 10 days? Where do you think we should draw the line? I think that we should always be trying to push the boundaries as Pete suggests to further the science. After all, 30 years ago a forecast for 5 days out was considered to be long range! And as for the metoffice - I think that you will find that they do bother - they just aren't made public, perhaps wisely so.
    5 points
  43. I wouldn't normally wheel out the NAVGEM and CMA but since its the only thing remotely interesting in the output then desperate times call for desperate measures! The UKMO has that colder dig of air southwards at T120hrs, the GFS and GFS P together with the ECM are reluctant to hold back the troughing upstream and flatter, even the UKMO just offers a short window but you can see from the T120hrs fax chart the sub 528 dam behind the cold front, several troughs shown so if by some miracle this verifies then a chance for some wintry showers especially into Scotland, snow to higher ground:
    4 points
  44. Guys, i remember Chiono mentioning on the strat thread that he was expecting this to happen the first half of december. Something to do with MJO phases and wave breaking meaning there was going to be a couple weeks of flat zonal before the fun and games around 15-20th Dec. Does anyone else remember hearing something like this?
    4 points
  45. Hmm, I'm going to dissent and say that I think the charts tonight are very poor really. The ECM 240 is very much in line with the picture being painted on most of the GEFS. I felt yesterday that there was a trend to pull the Azures high further west but this hasn't really been followed through today and the trend over the last 48 hours has been towards a flatter zonal flow. Of course things are different to last year in many ways but there are no signs of anything notably cold out towards mid month. the strat may change things down the line and it will be interesting to see what happens ther
    4 points
  46. I think the signs are there on the Ecm12z and come Tuesday this week I expect the azores high to push back further west it won't take much for that to happen and I believe it will, allowing the cold flood gates to open.
    4 points
  47. To be fair John,I among with many others are not seeing a major cold outbreak in the near future.We are just going to enjoy the much cooler days and nights to come.The middle to end of December has always been favourite for a major meteorological change in our vicinity.Lets enjoy the winter unravelling.Edit You couldn't be more correct about the Strat thread too.A must read before over analysing the volatile day to day model outputs
    4 points
  48. At this moment the cooler spell predicted for the 6th/7th will b very much like the one before, a quick polar maritime blast before the Azores high ridges back in Beyond this Arctic heights still continue to exist (albeit quite weak) with the polar vortex moving fluidly around this. No sign as of yet of developing something more significant.
    4 points
  49. I can only respond to this with my pseudo psychologist's hat on. Have you considered that the authors got enjoyment and satisfaction from writing this forecast. Are you considering that the readers are similarly enjoying the read. Most people realise that long range forecasts are going to be difficult in the detail and allow for such. We are a weather community, let's applaud the effort on our behalf - the exchange of knowledge between individuals and professions is a wonderful aspect of this and other forums.
    4 points
  50. 0.3 would like to go subzero but with 7-8 C for a few days to start, and possibly -1 average from 4th to 31st that equates to 0.3 so.
    4 points
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