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Right, I am going to try and calm things down a little in here, as well as answer a few questions that I have seen along the way hopefully. The over-riding message from this post is this - Calm Down! We approach November with two things which are a recipe for over-excitement, mood swings and plenty of toy throwing. These two ingredients happen to be: - Something that can barely be described as a 'Winter' from last year - A Polar Vortex this year more absent than UKIP at Notting Hill carnival So, let me start by addressing the misery of last year. I have seen some occasional posts asking whether what we are seeing right now is 'normal', both in this and other threads. My assumption is that by normal, they mean preceding a mild winter. Below are some mid-November charts from what we might consider to be some of the milder years of recent times: A very random assortment and chosen for a very specific reason. Whilst not all of them feature hugely organised vortex's necessarily (and that in itself becomes a point - just because right now there is little organisation to the vortex does not mean it can't still become more organised and vulgar) they all lack a crucial ingredient in something we now know, thank's to Cohen, is a crucial ingredient in SOME colder winters, and something you may be sick and tired of hearing about by the end of November - The Scandinavian High/Aleutian Low combination. For example, here are some of the colder winters of recent times: Notice in all of these years we end up with a Scandinavian High and Aleutian Low combination during November. Now this is not me saying that before every cold winter we have to have this setup, but in the majority of years we have seen this setup occur it has lead in to a colder winter. This is all linked in to Cohen's research on the Snow Advance Index, with the rapid snow advancement (and interactions thereafter given the rapid cooling of the surface) giving us the stronger than usual Siberian, and eventually (hopefully) Scandi/Sceuro ridge. If we have a look at the forecast setup for the middle of November this year: We see something fairly similar forecast. I think this serves as an important point heading forward for those of you impatient to get the cold in as soon as possible. The best case in point for this is the now infamous December 2012 failed Easterly - the whole idea here was that yes as nice as it would have been to get the cold in as soon as possible, it was not vital that we got the early season cold. It was once again then a Scandinavian high that initially looked to retrogress to advect the bitterly cold air across Europe Westwards in early December, before some more shortwave drama lead to record sales of Nick Sussex's prozac. But the point is, we had the Scandinavian high/Aleutian Low combination at this time, which helped to drive wave activity in to the Stratosphere and ultimately led to the cold JFM 2013 period which we saw. One final addition to make before we take a look at current forecasts, here was my analogue for this November, based around OPI, eQBO and El Nino matches: Notice a few key things which this picks out which we already know to be true: - Trough to the West of the UK - Aleutian Low - Scandinavian Heights - The cold pattern across the USA with a West Coast ridge and East Coast Trough. If you try and match that to the 8-10 day height comparisons posted above, you'll notice a pretty good match overall with just a few minor tweaks. Roll that forward in to the winter months and you get this: So, the overriding message I have for you all is this: Whilst we are seeing some wonderful synoptics on show which at least makes a nice change from last year, it really is not imperative that we get the cold in this early. Even the greatest winters of '47 and '63 did not get going until after Christmas, hang tight and try not to get aboard the rollercoaster too early. Get outside, head down to the pub, go see some friends and family etc. because we all know that once the truly cold charts start showing none of us on here are going to have any sort of life outside of the area between our laptops and our lamp-posts. So, back to the future... If we keep the above in mind and search just for the Scandi High/Aleutian Low combination for now: We can generally still find that combination in the outputs through to around day 10, and if you want to make it easier to spot this, try using the anomaly charts instead: ECM Ens. Day 5: Day 10: And if you head over to the stratosphere thread and take a look at some of the posts from this morning, you will see some wave activity starting to rear its head once again, which is most welcome. So as we are only 5 short days in to November, this is all I will be looking realistically for now, the Scandi High/Aleutian Low combo, and anybody expecting anything other than eye candy in the next couple of weeks may be a little misguided. Let's wait until the end of November before we start getting too excited about anything potentially good synoptically, hoping that in the meantime we can start bringing some of that colder air in to Europe. SK

Get outside, head down to the pub, go see some friends and family etc. because we all know that once the truly cold charts start showing none of us on here are going to have any sort of life outside of the area between our laptops and our lamp-posts. the above from sk One of the best posts I have seen this autumn, very realistic and well presented, thank you for that. Well worth reading carefully his comments along with the charts. No hype, a lot of common sense meteorology in there.

The model of choice this morning ( which is difficult as overall continuity has been poor ) is the ECM. 3 consectutive runs ( maybe 4 ) with retrogression across Scandi. If you want to get cold quickly back into Scandi via troughing then this is the route past day 9/10 & 11- As mentioned these are the interesting days - so if I had to earmark a date for a change it would be the 14th or 15th.... GFS- Not really worth commenting on now. As if it wasnt bad enough having one useless operational followed by another 20 equally if not worse ensembles, we now have another arrow in the bag to fire randomly... Stick with the Euros. The same as been the case for the last 14 years. Watch for a chart 'like' this - we want all the negative flow aimed WNW at the SW tip of greenland- http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-20-0-0.png

GFS is ramping it up beyond belief in the upper strat. I am really sorry I dont have the time to make a longer post with analysis of the current GFS calamities, but on a quick look, there does seem to be a EAMT event partially behind all of it, or actually two or more sequential. And the probable reason why this scenario is so fixed in the GFS is because the EAMT starts in a fairly good range, day 6-8, which is not too bad skill-wise. I would need more time to verify all of it. SInce the normal GFS is available to all, I will add parallel GFS strat output, which is kinda in agreement, and looking fairly good. Model consistency is always nice to see when strat dynamics are in question. We will see how long it lasts and how much it evolves, but it is obvious by now, that strat-wise we are most certainly looking at potentially something totally different than last year. So much for now. Regards.

Great read from Snowking, thanks. I was going to post that I couldn't understand why anyone would be in the least bit despondent with this mornings output, I mean even the most optimistic among us can't expect any chance of any cold until the last 3rd of Nov at the very earliest and all that has been said is that the possibilities of seeing and early wintry spell are currently greater than normal and there is absolutely nothing in this mornings output that diminishes that possibility but Snowking has provided the where, what and why far more eloquently than I would of done. As for Steve M's post talking of the possibility retrogressing high from Scandi to Greenland area, he is talking about time-frames just beyond the models scope so we should be looking for conditions to set up to allow this retrogression rather than the actual retrogression itself. There is currently no way to know but the possibility is there because, despite what some people have posted, there are signs in the output for it. Take another look at the ECM/GFS 7-10 day height anomaly charts Clear signs on the ECM that heights are attempting to retrogress. So what is the difference between the ECM anomalies and GFS in the context of what we should look for in the MO over the next few days? Transfer your attention to the negative anomalies and compare the alignment and depth of the trough to the West of the UK. You can see that the ECM anomaly screams undercut of scandi heights with the trough digging right through Western Europe on NW/SE axis while GFS is a shallow trough with much more westerly aligned jet - little to no undercut of heights over Scandinavia. A huge difference for 10 day anomaly charts. How might that translate into the MO? Well look at this mornings operational runs of GFS and ECM day 7 and it is a perfect illustration of how differently they handle the pattern in FI. ECM on the left in tune with its anomaly charts GFS on the right in tune with its own anomaly charts regarding depth and orientation of the trough. (Do not look for retrogression as that won't come until further down the line and only if we get the ECM undercut.) So out of chaos comes order. Although we are seeing a lot of variance in the charts, because of the models often touted lack of ability when dealing with large positive polar height anomalies, there is actually only one significant thing to look out for if you really want to see an early wintry blast (If GFS is correct don't get upset, the potential will still be there - patience grasshopper.) and that is the nature of the trough to the West of the UK. Of course the nature of that trough is dependent on earlier factors and developments upstream which is another post but for the sake of considering whether we may get a cold NE blast before the end of November via retrogressing Scandi heights it is a significant part of the puzzle that we can see modelled run to run. If we get the undercut and good trough alignment then we will start to see heights extending from Scandi toward Greenland and from there hopefully low pressure sinking down its Eastern flank so that eventually the current high pressure is replaced by low pressure in the region. Of course even if we get the undercut and retrogression the upstream pattern still has to play ball for the UK to benefit with a cold Arctic blast. So heads up and chins up and all that.

surely the retrogression mr murr mention (above) re the ecm is only one option. and so far theres nothing in the ecm runs that would suggest anything cold , within the reliable it could get pretty mild with a southerly scourced southeasterly. yes, IF the scandi-high retrogresses it might lead to an early cold spell. but thats currently not being shown on the runs, and im still waiting for the retrogression of the high promised last may to happen! ignoring the gfs is foolish imho. it is a perfectly sound data resource and whilst statistically it might not be as accurate as the ecm, its still not that far behind and often gets it right when the ecm doesnt. however, im not sold on the current gfs atlantic westerly outlook. the anomaly charts support the ecm's biscay/azores low option.

But this is neither a moderation or a model related thing. If people want to like a post they can, if they want to agree with a post they can, disagree they can, and so on - every post gets the same platform. That's what a community is about - people voicing opinion, agreeing/disagreeing with opinion and so on. We have a report button on every post, so anyone who thinks a post is off topic/out of line can report it - I can tell you we've had one report from the model thread this week and it was about a post which was talking about the daily express, so very off topic, but that's it. So where's the issue? Is it that some posts get more likes/replies than others, and you think that (your or someone elses) 'more deserving' posts should get the same attention? If so, it all sounds a bit juvenile to me.

The royal We if you want cold - The ECM Mean at day 7 looks pretty conclusive today for the first stages of the split vortex- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110500/EDH1-168.GIF?05-12 S

Evening All- We are really gathering pace now, with the NH pattern really becoming LOADED towards a Negative AO, but not just a normal run of the mill joe Average AO, nope. A super duper negative AO - Index Ranges from the 12z suite at day 10 is probably low end of -3 from the GFS & heading past -5 on the GEM. To put this into Perspective theres 3 offerings I bring to the table tonight. 1) EXTREME Negative AO ( Sub -4) is RARE. - some might say as rare as hens teeth.... ( hence my Avatar ) What is even more rare is Sub -4 values in November, this is because the AO index should by rights according to the long term mean have a positive value. There are 5 Novembers since 1950 with a sub -4 value in the month. 1959 -5.9 18th Nov 1968 -4.2 14th Nov 1985 -4.5 25th Nov 1998 -4.1 16th Nov 2010 -4.1 26th Nov Interesting Nov 62 just missed with a 3.8 Why is that important- well of the 15 Winter months after these Novembers the AO was negative for 11. This is only half the story as theres not much difference between -4 & -3. 2) So lets cherry pick Winters with our Negative (below freezing ) CETS since 1950 & highlight the lowest -AO value in the preceding November- Dec 2010 -4.1 Feb 1986 -4.5 Jan 1979 NONE.( however December had a -4.2) Jan & Feb 1963 -3.8 Feb 56 -3.4 Again a high Correlation - to Low November Values. - Interesting November is just a calendar date- 1979 is interesting as the Winter started late in December however still saw low index values. 3) November AO V Winter AO Correlation inc OPI - This is the BEST statistic of them ALL- In the AO dataset there is 63 years. 1950-2013. There are 12 Novembers with a Negative Sub -1 AO for the month. 1952,55,57,59,62,65,68,80,85,98,00,03 - that = 36 Months. - the Winter AO for those was 30/36 Negative which is around 85%. Now remove the 1 positive OPI year- 1998 > 1999 & you get. 30/33 NEGATIVE AO months. that's over 90% chance of a negative winter. So why are SOME of us happy today. This http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif MEAN high -3's + this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110412/EDH1-168.GIF?04-0 MEAN high -3s to -4 + This http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014110412/gemnh-0-240.png?12 -6 BOOM chart Is putting us on the cusp of something Big..... ITS COMING, & based on the AO mapping & the early timing of the drop the probability suggests before December, then again in December related to Wave 1 activity... Cheers S PS The ALL TIME 64 year record Winter -AO chart is the 19th of Jan 1985 @ -6.22 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-19-12-0.png Now look at the GEM AGAIN http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014110412/gemnh-0-240.png?12

Totally agree with this. I can think of a weather forum where a comment was made to the effect that only the factual daily run down on the models was required - whilst of value - it is not what a weather forum is about and the model thread there is now but a shadow of its former self. We are not in the real world here - for the bulk of the forum population, we want extremes of every weather type with the balance skewed to cold. I'm not sure cold is really that important other than it is required for snow production. I haven't seen the same enthusiasm expressed for very cold, dry conditions under winter inversions. Who cares whether the posts are essays on teleconnections or a collage of charts from the winters of our dreams - it keeps everyone happy and coming back for more - just what a community should aim for. . Just to add, a fantastic post in MO from Snowking - the type of post that will deserve every one of the likes it gets. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81718-model-output-discussion-31102014-and-beyond/?p=3064436

There's a difference between disagreeing with a point someone makes within the context of the discussion and slagging people off personally for making/agreeing with that point. So you're welcome to put an opposing view across but not as a personal attack which doesn't actually have any views about the models, any info to back it up and just reads as you (or anyone else) whining about other members. And the phrase held to account is a bit over the top by the way - it's a discussion forum, why do people need to be held to account for sharing their opinions? Obviously anyone reading is welcome to judge how much notice they take of any given post, but I think you're maybe getting too carried away if you're expecting there to be some sort of shaming of people just for voicing what turns out to be an incorrect opinion on a forum!

Nah purga - that second chart is naff. Look at the p/v over Greenland. Gonna be a rubbish winter to follow ...........

Instead of posting only model outputs, I decided to do something else. I have plotted linear correlation between November N. Hemisphere snowcover area and geopotential height in mid and lower strat. This isnt really any new info, but just it is interesting and it kinda supports the SAI theory. I am not going to go into the theory of linear correlations, unless a lot of people wouldn't know what its about. The correlation at 100mb is pretty straightforward, with the wave2-ish look to it, with the difference that instead of the usual Atl-Pac waves, we have more of a Eur/As-Pac combination. In the mid strat, the correlation is there for decent wave activity, with more of a wave2 feel to it, but at least a strong wave 1. And the 500mb correlation, which is not that far from the reality this month. Ending off with a GFS Para output. Yours truly, Andrew.

Recretos beat me to it this morning with his excellent graphics but find attached the more 'bog standard' GFS charts... I think the importance of the reanalysis charts Recretos posted of this time last year really does help to highlight the differences so far this year and so early in the season to. The most impressive outputs continue to be within the far reaches of the GFS but equally we are starting to see something of more significance even at 216hr and 240hr now. Cheers. Matt

I'm sure your view would be different if a 'big gun' wetted your appetite with a possible surge of warm air from Africa..... I don't have the knowledge, but the posts relating to a possible cold spell are easy to understand.......IE 'a possible cold spell'. These posts are very very interesting, and much can be learnt.........these posts are a benefit and keep the model output thread interesting.

Anyone can disagree with opinions in the thread & provide their own view, also anyone can choose to take note of the posts they wish to take not of, and ignore the ones they don't. I'm very sure that the vast majority of people recognise that it's an open discussion forum, it'll flow where the tide takes it, and at this time of year the tide is very often cold slanted, with people looking for cold & snow, that's just the way it is. Some people love it, some don't, but that's why we provide alternative discussions (such as the in depth thread etc), other than that & keeping things running smoothly, on topic etc, I don't think there's much more we can be expected to do.

The GFS this morning continues to show a cool/wet N/W flow with-in the reliable time frame, Before a cut off low sits over the UK and then it all gets a bit messy, But the flow does return from the N/W again.. With the Models persisting to struggle with back-ground signals in the N/Hemisphere i would again take anything +144hr with a large pinch of Salt. As with the past few days the interest continues, And a few on here are certainly making interesting discussion out of it as to where/if it takes us.

I think the best practice is to take a look at what all the major models show. This is the same type of methodology behind ensemble forecasting rather than focusing on just one model, especially when dealing with long range events. I certainly wouldn't ignore the GFS(P) at the moment since it has the highest resolution of any global model out there now, but neither would I look at it in isolation. Exciting times ahead as the winter approaches. The model threads are going to be a lot of fun and there has already been some interesting stuff popping up out in FI. But as always, it's good to remember that we have to be objective looking at FI output, it's easy to embrace the charts we want to see and dismiss the ones we don't.

Certainly don't see the above average your seeing. Pretty much average to slightly below judging by all the big 3!. Still analogue year 09/10 type set up. Once frost fog becomes a feature then the projected above average temps you see will soon get mixed out. Once that cold stagnant air gets in place it will take a lot to replace as we see in 09/10. The signals are unanimous in favour of blocking. And as Steve has suggested December could be pretty cold. But I really do think some of the uk will get something pretty cold towards the end of November. And the ao going negative.

Some very intruiging developments shaping up in the Northern Hemisphere pattern right now that highly likely have significant implications for the late autumn slope into early winter. Further to the occurence in Spring of this year, another Kelvin Wave has been surfacing in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Nino 3.4 is now approaching official weak El Nino status once more after its summer peak This is sufficient to promote an characteristic El Nino 500mb response of a strong cyclically repeating Aleutian Low... in tandem with a tanking -AO index as well documented already on this thread. Good model/ensemble support is indicated for the retrogression of the upper low from Alaska to the Aleutians, much as already happened back in October. The presence of the Aleutian Low also teleconnects to a looping of the jetstream over the west US Coast (a +PNA). The current/ongoing development of weak El Nino status in the upcoming weeks supports the sustaining of the Pacific jet downstream via an active sub tropical jet stream. Thus, with all said thus far about the upstream pattern, a good template is in place for the persistence of an atlantic upper trough continuing to disrupt towards the UK well into this month, carving out an early season -NAO signature.. whilst important window dressing also occurs on our side of the pole that we hope to see sustained and eventually back Siberian cold westwards in the months to come. The SST/Atmosphere feedback and pressure pattern response, as described above, is uncannily similar to what was witnessed in the autumn of 2009 - and the similarities for sure don't stop there. The Aleutian Low feedback response in place also assists in penning back what is already a recalcitrant polar vortex over Central Siberia. The SAI (snow advance index) has found its own road to converge on 2009 levels - and this even after some late month melt-off which had the index surpassing these levels with just a few days of the month remaining. Extensive Eurasian snow cover further promotes upper polar vortex segment sticking over central Siberia and teleconnects to establishment feedback of High pressure anomalies above it over the polar field. In this way the SST/Atmospheric feedback dovetails with the Eurasian feedback process to perpetuate sustained Rossby wave breaking trigger mechanisms to ensure that the vortex remains unstable and increases the likelihood of HLB further establishing though the rest of this month and into winter. The stratosphere thread is already documenting provisional advertisement of these same wave breaking vortex disruptions that tropospherically led the descent into the fun and games of December 2009. That is not a forecast for 2014 of course , but model indications of the same processes being a possibility once more this year are still obviously to be welcomed within the context of echoes of the encouraging background factors. With the jetstream disrupting over and to the west/south west of us and still some residual lag warmth from a very warm autumn so far still to be mixed out, we best be prepared for plenty of unpalatable wet weather continuing in both the near term and probably intermittently in the few weeks to come. I wouldn't expect anything especially cold for a while yet. But who really cares at this early stage? In view of the progression of the bigger hemispheric pattern, then short term pain very conceivably holds long term gain on the basis that the shape and character of the upcoming winter season is looking much more like 2009/10 and 2012/13 than a year back

I wouldn't be too concerned about the Accuweather forecast - as we all know trying to get the specifics for NW Europe right is notoriously difficult, moreso than for continental landmasses, so the fact that there does at least appear to be a significant amount of cold in the forecast for eastern Europe is a decent sign, certainly better than if they were predicting basically a blanket mild winter for Europe as they did last time round. Most of the signals are pointing pretty strongly towards a negative, potentially very negative AO this winter, so there's likely to be at least a few chances for us to get the blocking set up nicely for us, but as ever these things can come together or fall apart for our locale at a few days' notice, so I wouldn't worry too much, or get your hopes up to much either, at this stage. Anyway, if you really just want a cold LRF to balance things out here's mine (also, the NW prelim forecast looks colder than average, as do, whether explicitly or implicitly, a number of the US-based forecasters' thoughts) https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4837-preliminary-winter-forecast-201415-return-to-cold/

Am i missing something here? The blog is suggesting a weakening of the jetstream and more chance of blocking and colder weather as we head for December thanks to an Asian strat warming. "Nevertheless, it hints that we may progressively see a trend to a weather pattern offering something colder as we move towards December."

GFS P could provide some proper excitement in FI. A well written post from Snowking there,however i remember the key word last winter was "patience" which didn't bear much fruit,so i think "jam today" should be the slogan this time.

I have no problem with people hunting for cold at this time of year. What I don't like, is the model thread turning in to the hunt for cold. There is simply nothing out of the ordinary for Autumn showing up on the charts but I see posts that are basically a 'like' magnet for coldies who are biased. I hate skipping through posts in the mod thread that show a picture of a chart at T+384 with the bomb smiley and 11 likes, or something similar. Surely, whether you're a coldie or a mildy, posts should contain no bias toward a weather type? Just a simple explanation of what the current model run shows? Most of the time, it does happen, but then silly season arrives! I do use the report button if needed but sometimes I feel like I maybe abusing it if I check the mod thread each morning, around this time of year, so I don't bother unless it's rude or name calling. I want the model discussion thread to be just that, model discussion, not 'The hunt for cold discussion thread' or 'The hunt for heat' to keep things balanced.

Who cares who gets how many likes or whatever. Get a life people. You make yourselves sound well sad & jealous attention seekers. That is all.

No, not at all - you're just reading it entirely out of context. The posts the moderator was talking about were actually talking about hoping it may be x or y this winter, or talking about things like december 2010 which is clearly well out of the remit of the models. That's very different to someone who's viewing what's in the models, drawing opinions based on the output and discussing them in the thread - which everyone is welcome to do.

It's probably worth mentioning to those fairly new to all of this that a fairly deeply neg AO set up often leads to long unsettled spells initially for the UK but, if it persists (likely to IMO), sooner or later, with the NH loaded favourably, a cold spell is often just around the corner. Steve's example earlier of that very -AO period in November of 1959 is a good case of sometimes having to wait for the goodies. Whilst the Nov/Dec period as a whole averaged out as a fairly moderately negative -AO and the UK struggled for a slice of the cold action happening elsewhere, it would seem that the NH cold dice were simply getting more and more loaded and it was only a matter of when not if... The following JFM remains the lowest averaged -AO ever recorded and we went on to have our share of very cold spells during that time. Yes it was interspersed with cool unsettled periods as we endured Westerly NAO conditions at times but if ever there was a winter where the pv was ripped from pillar to post and retrogression was rife, that was surely one of the best of them!

Cheers All ^^ Evening All- We are really gathering pace now, with the NH pattern really becoming LOADED towards a Negative AO, but not just a normal run of the mill joe Average AO, nope. A super duper negative AO - Index Ranges from the 12z suite at day 10 is probably low end of -3 from the GFS & heading past -5 on the GEM. To put this into Perspective theres 3 offerings I bring to the table tonight. 1) EXTREME Negative AO ( Sub -4) is RARE. - some might say as rare as hens teeth.... ( hence my Avatar ) What is even more rare is Sub -4 values in November, this is because the AO index should by rights according to the long term mean have a positive value. There are 5 Novembers since 1950 with a sub -4 value in the month. 1959 -5.9 18th Nov 1968 -4.2 14th Nov 1985 -4.5 25th Nov 1998 -4.1 16th Nov 2010 -4.1 26th Nov ( Interesting Nov 62 just missed with a -3.8 Why is that important- well of the 15 Winter months after these Novembers the AO was negative for 11. This is only half the story as theres not much difference between -4 & -3. 2) So lets cherry pick Winters with our Negative (below freezing ) CETS since 1950 & highlight the lowest -AO value in the preceding November- Dec 2010 -4.1 Feb 1986 -4.5 Jan 1979 NONE.( however December had a -4.2) Jan & Feb 1963 -3.8 Feb 56 -3.4 Again a high Correlation - to Low November Values. - Interesting November is just a calendar date- 1979 is interesting as the Winter started late in December however still saw low index values. 3) November AO V Winter AO Correlation inc OPI - This is the BEST statistic of them ALL- In the AO dataset there is 63 years. 1950-2013. There are 12 Novembers with a Negative Sub -1 AO for the month. 1952,55,57,59,62,65,68,80,85,98,00,03 - that = 36 Months. - the Winter AO for those was 30/36 Negative which is around 85%. Now remove the 1 positive OPI year- 1998 > 1999 & you get. 30/33 NEGATIVE AO months. that's over 90% chance of a negative winter. So why are SOME of us happy today. This MEAN high -3's + this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110412/EDH1-168.GIF?04-0 MEAN high -3s to -4 + This http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014110412/gemnh-0-240.png?12 -6 BOOM chart Is putting us on the cusp of something Big..... ITS COMING, & based on the AO mapping & the early timing of the drop the probability suggests before December, then again in December related to Wave 1 activity... Cheers S

My first post in this thread i have noticed something different in the last few weeks to this time last year,and that is my dog(Alaskan malamute) has not shed a hair,where as last year i got bags full off him,that tells me winter is coming and maybe he senses it here is my pooch

Steve-I love reading your posts and sure I am speaking on behalf of the vast majority of us who have far lesser knowledge than yourself in thanking you as Your posts simplify things for us lesser mortals so we can understand the general jist of things.I have been a follower on Netweather for last 3 years and am more a follower than poster and have a love of both warm summers and cold snowy winters(hopefully this year lol!!).Your reasoning for a potentially colder than average winter is both sound and professional imho . I find it a little odd that atm that a number of signals like the SAI,a favourable AO position,favourable OPI index,lowish Solar Activity,a favourable Jetstream(from a cold perspective)indicate a colder than average winter(maybe frontloaded this year) and yet the majority of LRFs for the UK go for an average/mild winter. Whatever will be will be but I hope that all your hard work turns out to be a trendsetter and others fall into line with your thoughts and us "coldies" can have a better winter than last years dismal showing. Keep up the good work and Thanks again

Worth a mention....

Looks like the latest update from the UKMO does not give any hope for undercuts during the rest of this month. They indicate the rain next week transfers from the SW to the NW and during the following week a rise in temperatures across the board. The longer outlook confirms no imminent cold spell during the latter end of Nov and early December. Until, the UKMO charts start to hint at cold, it looks as though we will have to wait some time yet and not get too excited . Looking at their latest outlook,it would seem low pressure it staying out to the NW and high to the SE, which is not what us cold lovers are looking for. C

Liam duttons blog on twitter. http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/jet-stream-hinting-early-winter-bring/7539

The more i look in to the Aleutian Low and its presence during our cold spells the more intriguing it gets.Whats more is, once it sets up shop it takes some shifting... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1986/archivesnh-1986-11-28-0-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1986/archivesnh-1986-12-31-0-0.png we know the rest. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-12-8-0-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-12-31-0-0.png not a bad rest of that winter! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-11-20-0-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-12-20-0-0.png Probably just me though.... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-30-0-0.png

indeed 'held to account' wasnt the best phrase to use. i think the problem is that the cold bias and praise of relating posts give the wrong impression to the casual observer who doesnt have sufficient knowlege to determine who is posting realistically. when 'big gun a' posts 'theres cold coming if this that the other happens' and gets 50 odd 'likes' the casual observer reads that as a 'given'. those of us who want a realistic view, just wont get it.

I've not seen any posts which are as you suggest - there are posts which are 'reading between the lines' of what the models are showing to look further ahead or to perhaps look at where the models may not be quite right currently, but there's nothing wrong with that. If there were, we may as well just have one person posting every day with a factual run-down of what the models show, it's a discussion forum, opinions around the subject are the point - you and anyone else are welcome to make them, so long as they're actually about the topic in hand and not just digs at the people who's opinions you may not agree with.

36 years and counting........ the average sum of the mean monthly CETs from Dec, Jan and Feb is 11.5C (1700-01 through to 2013-14) The last time we had a winter that registered 4,5C below this average was 1978-9, coming up to 36 years ago. The previous longest time between such winters was 22 years which culminated in the winter of 1916-17. It's time we had another one! The average wait for such a winter upto and including the winter of 1946-47 from 1700 was just 7 years.....since then we've only had 1962-63 and 1978-79!! Don't get me wrong....the recent run of 4 out of the last six winters with below the average readings, which bought to an end another record of 12 successive winters of above the average, has been welcome. But we need the Big One to come in! It's been far too long without one and it's not fair that, for 250 years we would have had 5 of them in the time we've waited since the last time!

My latest synoptic outlook for the next 14 days can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6272;sess= Mention of the cross polar +ve height anomaly developing with the -ve AO signal. No signs of any deep cold getting anywhere near the UK over next 14 days, though potential for higher pressure across northern and eastern areas 10-14 day period, with an increasing risk of frosts and temps falling slightly below average overall here.

Day 8 mean from the GFS/ECM and GEM ECM GEM All fairly similar to be honest, cyclonic with winds varying but becoming more south/south easterly with time. Rainfall looks above average for the west but drier in the east. Temperatures look near normal. As hopeful as the ECM is, it does look like it will be a long road to cold, if we continue to see the building blocks develop of course.

The Cloud 10 post is about Liam Duttons blog which mentions strat warming - NOT the Accuweather forecast in the next down posting.

Actually if you map the forecast you will spot that there will be a positive height anomaly over central and northern Europe stretching into Scandinavia allowing cold air to flood into Eastern Europe on a regular occasion. Pretty consistent with a poorly organised PV and a meridional pattern. Just a case that we are on the wrong side of the blocking pattern. For some areas to be cold, others will naturally be mild as the case you get with a amplified pattern.

Sycophancy? Who's flattering who and who's the influential people you refer to ? Its nearly winter on Netweather, block, ignore, leave, its easy guys.

I can't find the netweather article I wrote about this winter but here's the UKWW one http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49348-the-severe-winter-of-1928-29-a-special-report-with-times-articles/ Here's a thought for you. There have been only 8 sub zero CET Februaries since 1659, yet you would have lived through half of them. 4 since WWII.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 5TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak ridge of High pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by a freshening Southerly wind and fronts from the West later tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier from the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast indicates an undulating Jet flow but generally at a position to the South of the UK over the coming week to 10 days before edging slowly north to be crossing West to East over the UK by two weeks time. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows a sustained period of Atlantic Low pressure steaming in off the Atlantic to become slow moving across the UK over the coming week This means spells of rain and showers in temperatures generally close to average with strong winds too at times. Later in the run little changes with Low pressure areas just a little further North by then and therefore delivering the wettest and windiest conditions to the North and West with little change in temperature THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in maintaining a large Low pressure complex being strung out across and around the British Isles for the majority of the two week period and delivering sustained periods of rain and showers at times to all in temperatures generally close to average though with some day to day variations. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles also complimentary to their other runs in respect to the favoured option being Low pressure coming in from the west frequently and becoming slow moving over or just to the west of the UK with much rain and showers in strong and blustery winds as a result. The Ensembles also shows a tendency to rise pressure slightly over Southern Britain late in the period though insufficiently enough to prevent rain at times still with temperatures close to average overall. UKMO. UKMO today shows an unstable Westerly flow following the depression being over the UK this weekend. This means the rain and showers over the weekend will continue next week though with Low pressure holding further to the NW than other models troughs alone will provide the rain and showers then with some drier intervals in between and close to average temperatures. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a series of fronts and depressions moving gently East across the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds from between South and West. GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with a procession of Low pressure and fronts crossing the UK repeatedly over the next 10 days with showers and longer spells of rain in close to average temperatures. strong wnds too would be a feature of some of these depressions and fronts at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds Low pressure in total control of the UK weather streaming in from the West and becoming slow moving near our shores. There would be spells of windy and wet weather alternating with brighter and more showery spells in average temperatures. JMA JMA continues the themes of the others feeding repeated Low pressure into the vicinity of the UK with rain and showers for all areas as a result in strong winds from a generally SW or cyclonic flow. ECM. ECM still favours slow moving depressions slowly filling in situ over the UK this wekend with rain and showers as a result before a preference towards sliding Low pressure down to the SW of the UK late in the run as pressure builds to the NE. This then brings the wettest weather to Southern and Western areas whereas the North and East would be drier and perhaps brighter and a little chillier. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles show strong support at Day 10 for a Low pressure belt to stretch from Greenland to the UK with pressure High to the North and NE. This closely mimics it's operational flow in as much as it indicates rising pressure to the North of the UK but maintained very unsettled weather for many parts of the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems strong agreement between the models that shows a lot of Low pressure close to the UK over the next few weeks with rain never far away from any one location for any great length of time. MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning illustrate a very unsettled and at times windy couple of weeks to come as Low pressure areas stream into the UK from the West and become slow moving while filling over our shores. There are of course many small differences in subtle details between the models day to day but they all illustrate a generally somilar pattern. So we are left to try and pick out small differences and one such one is from UKMO this morning in as much that at Day 6 it holds Low pressure well to the NW while the UK lies in an unstable Westerly flow under less Low pressure and while this means little differences in conditions at the surface as it stands it may be that if the Low holds further North than other models suggest it might not be as wet overall as some predict early next week. ECM also differs a little in bringing Low pressure right down to lie to the SW of the UK by Day 10 with SE winds as a result. Rain at times would continue towards the South and West whereas with pressure higher to the Northeast other areas could become drier and chilly feeling. However, on the grand scheme of things this is nit picking and the general message is for spells of rain and showers in average temperatures for the next couple of weeks with no widespread frost and fog issues likely under such cyclonic conditions. Then as we look beyond the term of the output this morning there is somewhat less desire to rise pressure to the North than has been hinted at recently with only ECM flying the flag of higher pressure in the Greenland areas in 10 days time and while this offers no immediate passage into the chance of anything wintry so early in the season it is what is needed to make the Azores High less influential and to stem the flow of deep Low pressure areas bulldozing their way over the Atlantic and to the North of the UK.

I take it that the "we" you speak of is the 'Royal We'??

Not really much to say. It looks clear now that the cold that has headed down to our mid latitude will pass us by, the US in for a 4-6 day very cold shot. The models are now suggesting total disruption of the PV from the mid latitude cyclonic interaction with the jet. This energy will gradually subside and from FI charts from the GFS it looks like the packets of ex PV low heights will meander around looking for a home: op parallel: Control: The last frame is 21 November and the lower heights are beginning to suggest a more organised split PV. So as others have said the next 2 weeks of November looks like being average for temp and rain for the east, but very wet for the NW/W/SW: Next 8 days: temps: So its a case of keeping an eye on FI charts to see if and how long it takes for the PV to recover. The ensembles at D16 have members showing a more organised PV to a continued disrupted PV; they are split about 50:50 so looking at the mean for clarity beyond D10 is not going to help at the moment. It will be interesting to see where we go after this amplified pattern flattens.

There is nothing in this mornings GFS run that says anything but wet and windy and that's out to T384.

I can't believe how shredded the PV is, especially for November! Normally by now it is ramping up big time. Latest charts show increasing signs that the AO will go into a more negative phase too, which promotes the chances of a -NAO. What a time to be seeing this happen too.

What I'm looking at currently in the charts is very encouraging. Look, the cold switch I'm looking for backend of the month is the NW/SE movement of LP [Jetstream favourably angled] across us which brings in a N to E quadrant airflow. We are seeing plenty of signs already of such movement early on but we still get anomalous mild pumped over us interspersed with chilly shots and as Tamara said the trough disruption actually stalls such systems that could bring some very wet conditions. However, that will if it continues eventually pump pretty cold air towards us and its about the building pattern. I'm going to ramp a bit here, such movement reminds me of how Feb 86 started where we got stuck in one hell of a rut...a real cold rut. The trough just moved N to S as it could not move east and we know the rest. I'm not forecasting a Dec 10 but I'm saying the hemisphere is really loading itself here and I am utterly convinced of a very interesting 'wintry' season ahead. For me Dec has some decent cold periods in it disrupted by westerly breakthroughs.....but there might be more to come than that. Right enough ramping, but we are so in abetter place for chances of cold this approaching winter. BFTP

Just looking at the day 10 ECM anomalies and its more of the same with more blocking than you can shake a stick at and cold air being forced to lower latitudes which is the sure sign of a tanking AO. Fascinating model watching at the moment.