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Showing content with the highest reputation on 25/09/14 in all areas

  1. 26 points
    Good morning Netweather. I have been away for far too long what with a family crisis and a house move co-inciding together so apologies for that. I thought I would begin my return with sharing my daily thoughts on the 00zs from within my website at the moment available from the below link. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
  2. 10 points
    hi im just one of those people who looks every day at net weather but never posts so heres my first post. just somthing for the coldies who wishes this benign dry weather would finally break into somthing more autumnal i for one dont. ive been looking back at some of the uks and irelands most severe winters and strangely enough nearly all of the worst winters in the last 100 years had relativly dry octobers 2009 1962 1944 1927 1978 1946 and 1939 except south east england. so maybe we might get lucky this winter cant be any worse than the last not even a flake
  3. 5 points
    I know It isn't Norway, but parts of Finland atm is looking very Sledge'able!!! i know that isn't a proper word but who cares it's snowing http://www2.liikennevirasto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html
  4. 4 points
    It wasn't bone dry last week, we had all those thunderstorms, it hasn't been bone dry this week either and next week won't be bone dry, I expect at least some rain in places with a warm airflow sourced from southern europe / north africa.
  5. 4 points
    anyone giving the detail I heard just listening up to the start of November let alone 3 months down the line is about as reliable, in my view, as a piece of seaweed. To not pick with his start to october, can someone show me how his prediction matches what the anomaly charts are showing consistently. Nope he is peddling what many want to hear, cold and snow, and those who look for this will probably be able to support his overall winter come 1 March whatever the 3 winter months actually give. good for a listen if you are a cold fan rather than someone wanting some science. Sorry I have had a go but after almost 50 years weather watching as an amateur and a professional these folk really are not to be believed in my view.
  6. 3 points
    oopsy I used the incorrect term!!!lets change it to generally dry with maybe a few showers here and there!!!ecm out now and high pressure rules till the end of the run with no end in sight!!!
  7. 3 points
    Hi Timmytour . First 2 paragraphs, I agree. The 3rd seems to be based on the points you've listed, so I'll attempt to address these 1 at a time. It is true that every notable weather event gets linked with climate change. However, the majority of that is down to the media. There are only a few individual events that have undergone thorough scientific attribution studies. But the media is the media, they will do what they can to generate headlines and interest, often to the detriment of many scientific fields, not just climate science. It is also true that the climate is highly variable. When it comes to determining the cause, while 40 years is useful for seeing a trend, you need longer term data to really see if the current trend fits in with past variability. So looking back thousands and even millions of years helps to put our current change into perspective. Yep, I think it was Dr. Viner in a BBC article said that children aren't going to know what snow is and that it will soon become a rare event and cause huge disruption. We can't really get an idea of what time frame he was referring to, but it was likely a developing scenario over the next few decades. Anyway, science generally works best with a consensus. Individual scientists can have many different ideas about a topic, but when they start to converge within the scientific literature, that's when more certainty can be attributed to a particular theory. Take comments from individual scientists with a pinch of salt, especially if they're in news articles. Also check to see if they are an expert, actively publishing research in the area they are discussing! Hurricane trends can be highly variable depending on the particular basin being studied. In general, there is little consensus on how climate change will alter hurricanes. There does appear to be consensus that warmer conditions allow for stronger hurricanes for form. But there may also an increase in sheer, preventing some hurricanes from forming at all. But cherry picking how many cat3 or higher storms have hit the US in recent years says nothing about how CO2 effects temperature, especially when there are so many other countries, stats and hurricane basins to consider, such as the Super Typhoon Haiyan, the strongest storm to make landfall on record last Autumn. I'd have to see some links about the claims of a climate change induced drought in 2012, I suspect that was media exaggeration yet again. No scientists ever claimed that temperatures would go unrelentingly upward. In fact, many climate projections that showed Pacific SST close to what occurred accurately simulated the trends that we're seeing. Some projections even have longer slowdowns than what we've seen. Also, if you improve the Arctic coverage, as Cowtan and Way did, you'll find that the hiatus no longer exists, as the trend from 1998 to present becomes statistically significant. Besides that, starting your trend at 1998 is a huge cherry pick, when there are so many other years. Short time frames are not suitable for measuring climatic trends, but only internal variability. The same way you wouldn't decide that winter isn't going to arrive this year because the warm weather is lasting longer than expected! I think the actual science, and the policies resulting from it are 2 very different issues. Many people appear to base their disregard of AGW solely on the basis of not wanting extra taxes or their dislike of other green measures. They then flock to climate denial websites like WUWT, climate depot, GWPF, or spoof sites like iceagenow, in order to find any semblance of scientific reasoning for their beliefs. You're right that it doesn't prove anything. Especially when 9 of the top 10 warmest years on the CET record have occurred in the last 25 years! While a lot of the hype has been media driven, much of it is justified within the scientific literature. I mean, if we're not going to take notice of what the expert scientists say on a scientific matter, who do we listen too? Politicians with no expertise that simply push a positions their funders demand? Journalists and bloggers hired by PR firms to spread doubt about climate change in order to protect the profits of the most powerful companies on the planet? Mother nature will still prove mightily powerful. But when you consider all she's thrown at us in order to cause cooling, such as: record strong trade winds driving extra heat into the Pacific ocean. a cooling phase in the Atlantic driving heat into the Atlantic ocean. Both of these are contributing to a massive increase in ocean heat content We also have the quietest solar cycle in about a century A cooling influence from extra volcanic eruptions Isn't it impressive that we're still warming? What will it take to actually cause cooling? What will happen when these cooling factors switch to promoting warming? Something worth considering. Finally, there are many lines of empirical evidence linking CO2 with warming and a change in our energy budget. The science is solid. The only real debate is how much warming will occur.
  8. 2 points
  9. 2 points
    Youv'e missed junk posts in NW.
  10. 2 points
    After a blink and you'll miss it day of cooler air for the north ECM shows it turning very warm later next week with the 850's as high as +15 for a time
  11. 2 points
    The ECM ops for next is basically sticking with HP dominating and the low pressure confined to the west and north. A few sample charts.
  12. 2 points
    And once again compared to yesterday mornings runs the atlantic is held futher north and west on this mornings ukmo amd gfs!!!!!infact its reinvigorated as we head into early october!!!no end in sight to this bone dry weather!!
  13. 2 points
    http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ no updates coming through at present off now goodnight all
  14. 2 points
    Hi BFTV.....Thanks for the response which I do appreciate. I'm not a screaming denier, nor one who's "denial" is based on not wanting extra tactics......but a growing sense of there being an awful lot of rubbish being spoken about it. So you may be right in that I am being unduly influenced by the hysterical media reactions rather than the science. But i do wonder whether as our knowledge increases in certain fields, we tend to gravitate all our reasoning towards our understanding of those fields and eliminate or remove from consideration those fields in which our knowledge is sketchy. For example.... you make a comment about "cooling factors".....how do we know that these were not in much more abundance in previous years and that the warming we are now experiencing is not just a natural cycle of the earth, something that a relative lack of such cooling activities has been currently aiding. How much do we really understand about the reasons behind the ices ages we've had before and the warming up that consequently ended them? I certainly am aware it's been warmer in recent years.....though at the same time having a feeling that the "seasons" as we know them in the traditional sense seem to have come back more into line in the past few years. I've a spreadhseet of the mean CETs by month since 1700 with the top 25 ranked of each month (in terms of warmth) shown with a red cell and the bottom 25 shown with a blue cell. (so month has 50 of the 315 cells highlighted in one way or another) All very simplistic stuff. Yet it is striking how many red cells there are since 1989 I'd say. Before that there periods of dominance of one or the other colour without ever being near the same level of dominance. In fact the very very lovely December of 2012 ended a run of 175 months without a blue shaded cell in my spreadsheet! And all this time there was an average of four red cells in each year! So the warming is there to see.....and at the same time perhaps the beginning of a switch, with the number of reds per year beginning to decline and another blue month registering (March 2013). So it's easy to portray things either way......but I have issues with how things are only portrayed one way ...ie the apparent fact the climate is getting irreversibly warmer. I do remember in the Seventies when analysis of the ozone layer led to frightening predictions about how cold the world was going to get and how we had to take drastic action to prevent it happening. Well did that cooling stop because we stopped using aerosols? Or was it more that the predictions made, by the very same people who have since led the "global warming science", were the result of our flawed understanding of how the Ozone layer works? If the former, why don't we go back to using those aerosols to counteract the global warming :-) It seems like analysts will jump on a certain type of weather as being evidence of climate change, and then when the opposite happens, jump on the fact that extremes are being experienced and in general jump on about anything as "evidence". Such "analysis" I find ridiculous. I maintain that there are not many groups of years going way way back in history when such arguments couldn't be made with equal validity. In the 58 years between 1929 and 1986 we had nine of the 20 coldest Februarys since 1700 and just two of the warmest, Since then we've not had any of the coldest 25 Februarys. that's 28 years without one when we had been averaging four in the same timeframe. Evidence of warming? Well in the first 39 years in the data range....ie from 1700 to 1739, there weren't any of the coldest 25 Febs either! And what would ye olde Climate change ologists made of the successive Septembers from 1729-1731 if they had known that, getting on for 300 years later, they were still 3 of the 12 warmest Septembers ever recorded? I think there's lots we don't know still about the effect of different things such as the Sun and the varying degrees of axis tilt upon our climate. And we know that every so often the poles of the earth switch or move....but we've never experienced it in our lifetimes. Huge earthquakes and large volcanos can have dramatic effects. Maybe we are headed irreversibly for a big big change....but I think the greatest fallacy around now lies in the belief that we can do something about it. It's the modern equivalent of a raindance.....if it works, it was because raindancing really does work......if it doesn't , it's because not enough people were out raindancing.
  15. 2 points
    No one knows. lets remind ourselves of the Met Office 'forecast' issued last Autumn for the winter to come: Dryer than average and colder than average. Perhaps they ran out of seaweed.
  16. 2 points
    Heating? Still have the windows open of a night! Nothing better than a cold room with a thick, comfy duvet to snuggle up in of a night.
  17. 2 points
    increased SO2 caused by the Icelandic volcano last month could increase ozone in these places. Thus, the stratosphere would have more ease to warm. Here is the current ozone and the difference from last year is eloquent on Iceland / Greenland September 20, 2013: september 20, 2014: Regarding QBO, it is now in the full negative 5 to 50 included hpa: It is certain that winter 2014/2015 should be significantly different from 2013/2014 for the simple reason that the current settings (QBO, ENSO, Stt etc) are in total contrast with 2013 and conducive to wave surges waves into the stratosphere regular way. Stay tuned...
  18. 1 point
    Hi Knocker It was Stephen H Schneider I was thinking of who was a co-author of a paper in the early Seventies which concluded With four fireballs seen in one night over the US last night, I wonder how much the earth's temperature in the past has been impacted by meteorites......can you imagine the impact of a large fireball plunging into one of the polar regions? We're all doomed I tell you!!
  19. 1 point
    Looking at the models this evening it looks like the attempt from the atlantic early next week is looking in doubt now aswell!!comparing the evening runs to the morning update its clear to see this high pressure aint goin anywhere and is gona be stubborn!!
  20. 1 point
    A nice blog from Jo - looking at the likely warm night on Thursday, the reasons for it and why thickness is a handy tool when forecasting: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6169;sess=
  21. 1 point
    An increasingly warm and humid run from UKMO this morning as high pressure continues to dominate The only 850's available at the time of posting are t144
  22. 1 point
    Lots of beautiful storm clouds spotted on my journey around the eastern M25 and southern M1 a couple of hours ago.
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
    time to order that SAD lamp, cannot cope with anymore grey
  25. 1 point
    My fave from the takeaway is Chicken Bombay Flame made with naga chilli and I make a mean Vindaloo in the slow cooker. I'd eat curry everyday if my body allowed me to, sadly it doesn't!
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