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There still remains uncertainty with regard to the tropical storm and its interaction with the Atlantic ridge and the lower heights to the NW. GEM remains intent on linking it with the lower heights and pumping up the resultant Atlantic trough: D7: D9: The GFS at the same time has a ridge blocking that link up: The storm then fizzles out as it sinks south (Azores). The GFS op then continues with the current pattern of slack areas of low and HP meandering around our part of the NH with seemingly little impact from this storm. So by D10: GFS in FI has been for a while been invigorating the PV and again this is apparent on this run: If that is the case a return to a westerly zonal flow looks inevitable. Where the jet settles at could mean a N/S split. Too early to have confidence in this. Of course the above two are just two options as it remains fluid. For instance the GFS Control sends the storm to the SW as a cut off low/trough and this enables the Azores to ridge into the UK for 5 days plus: D10 D16 This keeps the jet further north and UK wide more settled. ECM mixes the tropical storm with the low currently in situ to the SW and by D9 we have the UK within the boundary of slack areas of an upper trough and upper ridge: Lots going on and no resolution to post TS Edouard. GEM and GFS are still showing from D4 around 3-4 days of warmer uppers for the south (>+12c) whilst ECM now downplaying that. Showers in week 1 rather than anything too wet. Looking more likely that the Atlantic will be held back for most of September though signs are that changes late Sep/early Oct are now being signalled.

A glimpse into the field Observation at Holuhraun eruptive site 13.9.2014 http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2985 link supplied above info in link too :-)

Popped up to Looe on Thursday and took a few snaps although it was a bit hazy and cloudy at times. The fish and chip shop on the beach must be a license to print money in the summer.

I have just seen the Auwinter thread. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81360-auwinter-2014-thread/ What a load of nonsense, what next Winting, the season between winter and spring, Sprummer, the season between spring and summer, Sumtumn, the season between summer and autumn.....

Potential 'Modoki' El Nino [central based warming in 3.4 region] looks very possible this winter which generally leads to southerly jet and blocking over Greenland Not a bad outlook and many now are predicting a weak nino at 65%. I think weak at very most and continued positive early outlook. BFTP

It think it is almost impossible at this stage to forecast winter 14/15. Most European forecasting agencies this time last year underestimated the prolonged snow free and in places frost free winter season. The storms and rainfall in the UK were staggering. Yet when snowfall totals were mostly nil in many European lowlands, some highland places in Scotland had a abundance of snow and here in our state of Carinthia the snowiest season since 1975, albeit at alitiude. I think the real guide to early indications of a cold winter is to look whether early snow cover can be maintained or established west of the Urals to the Baltic States. Start looking around the end of October. I cannot see any justification in the Madden predictions, but some media outlets like them ! C

Awesome model output, no sign of the block collapsing in the next few weeks, indeed, more chance of the block strengthening, becoming very warm in the south with lots of sunshine and just a few heavy showers. It's a very blocked outlook with predominantly fine and sunny days and light winds with temperatures later this week into the low 80's F but much cooler for the north and NE with patchy rain and mid teens celsius. Looking longer range, just a hint the far NW will become unsettled but for the vast majority it is set to stay fine and warm although after this coming week, temperatures drifting down into the high teens to low 20's c range but very good weather by mid to late september standards. I think the models should be congratulated for frequently suggesting mid september would bring BBQ conditions from several weeks back..well it's now within the reliable timeframe those looking for a general change to cool & unsettled..unlucky guys, just hope the pattern changes in october..for the vast majority..ENJOY the last of the summer wine or a cold beer or 3

Evening All, Without perhaps writing the same as the last post I think the importance of not raising peoples expectations for a definitive winter forecast needs to be reinforced, of course respect to the people that attempt it & continue to do so, however for the UK which Is a tiny pixel on the wide screen TV of the globe it is almost pointless with low scores. The reason being is the change in location of the jet by just 2/300 miles can be the difference between a Wet/ Dry - Cold/Mild winter & this wont change. We will never be able to macro manage our location for specifics against the background of variability across the globe. With that in mind & having an acceptance that this will always be the case what most credible long range forecasters are striving to achieve is a method in determining the probability of what the blocking will be for the DJF period & then equate that to a probability of Drier colder weather / wetter warmer weather. Within this though I would still never pinpoint the UK as an individual location, it would have to be Northern or north western Europe - to allow for a larger size of coverage to demonstrate the forecast integrity / accuracy. Clownshoes like Madden should be auto ignored & I agree his name should be in the swear filter with an apt name applied.- Maybe Mickey Mouse. There is also difficulty for the seasoned weather forecasters who are presenting their forecasts based onto historic composites - With pressure anomalies being grouped into years relating to strong modalities of Teleconnections like QBO / NINO etc, the crucial aspect of these composites is that the current feedbacks for these teleconnectors are the same as they were some 50 years ago...- (NOAA goes back to 1948 IIRC) - in current times where the sensational headlines of global weather is changing & becoming more extreme then NEW feedbacks need to be identified - Relating to Sea ice impacts & overall warmer global surface temperatures as these will influence the positioning of the jet, remember subtle impacts can have big impacts on locale... I would say however whatever the signals these produce as far as composites from a neutral Nino & easterly QBO ( suggesting a more blocky winter ) its nothing more than suggestive excitement as the main event in terms of monitoring the stratosphere is still exactly 2 months away. As highlighted above,one thing that doesn't seem to be changing though is the stratosphere it follows a very fixed path until we come to mid November where the direction of the forthcoming winter starts to get carved out - volatility in the early weeks with warm anomalies will be great news, however vice versa a developing very cold anomaly will of course pressurise any early blocky conditions by forcing a more westerly flow. ** remember there can be a disconnect between a cold stratosphere downwelling & a blocked surface **- but it doesn't last forever. What would I look for in terms of precursors for EARLY winter in the next 6-8 weeks. * Early vortex development & its sinuosity across 70N- as weak as possible please. * Location of CORE lowest heights - Ideally Russia for the depths of the vortex with chunks scattered in as many locales as possible * Zonal Mean- Whether it can oscillate into weak easterly negatives early in the season or whether a positive westerly phase starts to develop * SAI, snow advancement in October is what were looking for especially expanding West & south out of Russia, however any possible positive feedback this can give the UK in terms of blocking in & around Svalbard will only occur if the PV isn't strong. So that's it. 8 weeks to sit tight, ignore all early forecasts that are giving specifics & take ANY winter forecast showing DJF 500MB anomalies with a pinch of salt as irrespective of what the composites show it all hinges on the stroatosphere..................... S

http://vimeo.com/106088802 http://vimeo.com/106051784

That was the snowiest week leading to Christmas Day I have seen around here. Snowed on the 19th, 20th, 22nd and 23rd December.

Yes, some incredible ice totals being shown in the Southern Hemisphere. I wonder if this will make the front page of the Independent !?!?

Just need to show this even though its antarctica...all previous records smashed, many were forecasting catastrophic ice collapse/melt about 5-7 years ago BFTP

If GFS is right the summer like warmth isn't done just yet for the south Into the mid 20's on Wednesday Maybe 27c or 28c for some spots on Thursday, Friday & Saturday in the south any showers look very isolated

This is a nearly perfect scenario for drawing up late summer heat Low pressure off Portugal influencing us, with no other low pressure influence, meaning we are the northern-most point of the circulation, and everything is coming from our south. All that's missing for a really hot blast is better heights over Central Europe, which would tighten the isobars dragging up the warmer air quicker and giving a drier feed too. As it is, pretty good for warmth in September, but we still may see 24C/25C as the temperature ceiling due to the slack air and possibility of a thundery influence preventing nice blue skies.

James Madden is a complete and utter tool. Last "winter" he just could not stop himself from forecasting snow over and over again..week in week out...while in the real world the rain and wind just kept on coming. He is a clown..a fraud...and I feel a strange sense of sympathy for those gullible enough to believe the diarrhoea that emanates from him, as they clearly do not possess the intelligence required to see the truth. As for my early hopes for this winter...a normal winter will do just fine. Any repeat of the hideous spawn of satan of 2013/14 and I am emigrating.

Just a reminder that this thread is to discuss Arctic ice levels, not the finer points of turkeys or whether you think AGW is or isn't happening. All off topic posts have been removed, there are other threads for that type of discussion. Thanks

I know it may sound a little unlikely that in my first week of joining the site I am claming a 'weather event', but thought I would share all the same. For the past 4 years I have been monitoring the amount of wind that passes over our house, it is a home made device attached to the very top of the roof (spinning air vent from a van attached to a cycle computer) I take a reading every Sunday morning. Last week we only had 41 miles of air pass over, this being my lowest recorded week, the previous near windless week was 24/7/11 with 52 miles. Average week is 510 miles and the record winiest week was 1982miles We also had zero rainfall last week, this is the first entirely dry week jor just over a year (week ending Sun 21/7/13)

Actually been revised to 3 km, so not quite as close to the surface. Several other quakes less than 1 km though. Wonder if the very shallow quakes are ice fracturing as it falls into water.Hi John, beat me to it

Winds are up to 70kts now, making Edouard the season's fourth hurricane. Edouard is in quite a favourable environment of low shear and warm sea temperatures. Thus, it is expected to become the first major hurricane since Sandy in 2012. If Edouard does achieve this, it'll be about time!!

Very shallow as well, only 100 M deep.

30 odd years is a little different to 2 days but yes that would be correct if we had been recording it for the last 2 days although you couldn't argue it was the lowest since records began because 2 days is a snapshot of the last 30 years in the arctic.. unlike the Antarctic which keith has kindly pointed out for us. Either way it is still fairly impressive and nice to see the ice doing better again this year regardless of the theories that many have over the causes and such what would you agree?

doubt it very much at the moment!!current cfs forecast has high pressure for October aswell!!!Although things may change you just never know!!

Maybe a good idea! Y'know it's occurred to me that I NEVER open the curtains. They only get opened when the missus gets up (which is never,ever before me) and spoils things. I'd be quite happy to leave them open when night falls but she goes and does the same trick in reverse.

I don't know GW do we? That's not what keith was referring to he was merely stating the fact that its highest levels ever 'recorded' which is true if we just look at the satellite records?

Ya know... think I'll skip....

Hey Botts, why dontcha just brick up the windows and have done with?

Correct..10 points.

Bill Murry from Ghostbusters I think?

Aye, Tony, looking at the latest model output it's just about conceivable that September 2014 could rival September 1986 as the driest month on record here. Perhaps a bit premature to start talking of such things with half the month still to go but the models do seem to consistently push back any sort of breakdown with one area of high pressure taking over from another ad infinitum. September 1986 recorded 8.2 mm and was the driest month since September 1959 when several local stations recorded between 0.5mm and 2mm. It must be something about Septembers!

UKMO shows a slow return to high pressure by next weekend Although some rain is likely during the coming week it looks limited and patchy the greatest risk of some heavier showers looks likely tomorrow in the east Temperatures tomorrow look like ranging from the mid teens in northern England to the low 20's in the south, for the rest of the week temperatures will range from the high teens in northern England to the mid 20's in the south. Night time temperatures should hold up well in the towns and cities for the coming week 13c to 16c

The nights are getting longer

With just 1.2 mm of rain so far this month it's looking likely that the first half of September will be the driest on record here ( since 1977 ). The previous driest first half was 3.8 mm in 1996.

It could well end up above 15C at the month end if tonight's charts are anything to go by, there will be some high minima over the next week and temperatures should rise by day from midweek onwards- no real sign of anything cooler in the offing either.

It is. I think maybe 6 or 7 occasions. In 1890, September was the warmest month of that year! The only occasion it has happened for the CET.

Yes the Jetstream was quite southerly but it was also very flat, the energy off the eastern USA seaboard was just too strong to allow buckling and ridge development over the mid atlantic, as each low exited our shores the next was waiting on the wings, less energy could have resulted in some sharp trough/ridge action and more of a colder NW influence at times, with plenty of snow for the north at least, alas it never happened.

All time record set for Antarctic sea ice http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/antarctic-sea-ice-extent-sept-13-2014-new-all-time-record/

Indeed Milhouse, the GFS is even showing 27C in the South for next Saturday- it's still a long way off but it looks increasingly likely that temperatures will rise towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a southeasterly setting up.

Next weekend is shaping up rather good if the GFS 12z is correct with warm air over the UK and winds dropping resulting in some very warm temperatures likely. Low to mid 20s for the Midlands and southern England with some lingering mist and low cloud likely over eastern areas. Considering how the breakdown has continued to be pushed back, one cant call anything beyond next weekend.

Fairly good agreement from the GFS/GEM and UKMO up to day 6 A moderate at first east to south easterly, becoming slacker and increasingly warm from mid week with temperatures reaching the mid twenties in the south. Good agreement on the track of the storm heading towards the Azores, this is a pretty good ticket for the Azores high to be displaced towards the UK. Looks like cold air could spill into the Atlantic too which could reinforce the current pattern.

Wow this is a temperature chart straight out of mid July

you make it sound like a Tekken move.

Don't know about what kind of flooring he should be, but he needs flooring with a good left right combo. What a weapon he truly is.

I hope for a very late winter and an equally early spring

Hmmmm I am picking up subtle signs that maybe you are not a fan? :-) Do agree though, there is a time and a place to hype up potential cold and snow, for him it is every winter regardless of the genuine likelehood. I do wonder whether him and the even bigger clown that is Nathan Rao are having a bet between themselves on how much complete nonsense they can spout and get away with.

October or November due for record breaking wetness I should think Bobby

4wd, "There is indisputable evidence of wave washed beaches on the north coast of Greenland that completely falsifies it." Such is the power of natural variation. Thank you. To certain others; This interglacial peaked around 6000years ago. There is no unprecedented warming. As the glaciers retreat there is evidence of hundreds if not thousands of warmer years this Holocene. Nature can do this to the Arctic all by herself.

Yeh, sorry we have an autumn thread and we have a winter thread, I can't see where this fits or what it can add, so will lock it!

This month is turning into one of the driest and most boring Septembers in memory. Still no any concrete sign of a change from the anticyclonic pattern. I hope when Autumn does finally arrive it arrives with vengeance.

Some folk base their discussion on the agreed consensus that accurate records go back to 1979. Not on some you tube video http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measurement_of_sea_ice Record ice levels for the time of year http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

A Boy Named Sue, More photos: Snow cumulonimbus, are characteristic of the autumn and spring period: Classic cumulonimbus: Rain foot, updrafts, funnel (?): Altocumulus virga and other cloud top tier: Horizontal field of cloud seems to vertical wall. Optical illusion? A bit of sunsets: