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Fairly good agreement from the GFS/GEM and UKMO up to day 6 A moderate at first east to south easterly, becoming slacker and increasingly warm from mid week with temperatures reaching the mid twenties in the south. Good agreement on the track of the storm heading towards the Azores, this is a pretty good ticket for the Azores high to be displaced towards the UK. Looks like cold air could spill into the Atlantic too which could reinforce the current pattern.

Agree we seem to be at the mercy of the tropical storms at the moment - waiting to see what they do, thanks to a very quiet 'atlantic' in the main, however, traditionally the atlantic gets its act together later in September thanks to a resurgent Polar vortex, this year it seems to have gone to sleep for a lengthy period, unsure what to do, allowing these tropical features to dictate affairs, but as you say only a matter of time that we see the PV become the major player in our weather , the early plunge of cold into mid lattitudes over north America likely to fuel the PV into action as we see a steeper temp gradient develop over the coming 2 weeks. Until then - its a dry outlook for many, unusually so for the NW of the quarter, another week of quiet weather.. four dry weekends in a row now here..not often you can say that in the Lake District! can we make it 5?

We're all different, whether the cause be medical, emotional, whatever. What makes you happy makes me sad and vice versa. I can accept that but tend to react accordingly when I'm portrayed as some unsocial misfit for being in the minority.

James Madden is a complete and utter tool. Last "winter" he just could not stop himself from forecasting snow over and over again..week in week out...while in the real world the rain and wind just kept on coming. He is a clown..a fraud...and I feel a strange sense of sympathy for those gullible enough to believe the diarrhoea that emanates from him, as they clearly do not possess the intelligence required to see the truth. As for my early hopes for this winter...a normal winter will do just fine. Any repeat of the hideous spawn of satan of 2013/14 and I am emigrating.

Looking at UKMO this morning the low to the west of Portugal doesn't look like it will have much impact on the UK

I think there is as much chance of another scandi block than a westerly flow in week 2. Whatever transpires, patterns look to remain slack.

Haar haar...

Next weekend is shaping up rather good if the GFS 12z is correct with warm air over the UK and winds dropping resulting in some very warm temperatures likely. Low to mid 20s for the Midlands and southern England with some lingering mist and low cloud likely over eastern areas. Considering how the breakdown has continued to be pushed back, one cant call anything beyond next weekend.

After a week or so of fairly warm and bright conditions. It looks like this settled spell could develop some teeth this coming week with temperatures possibly pushing 80F by the middle and latter part of the week. Summer(esque) conditions are not dead yet.

Wow this is a temperature chart straight out of mid July

JMA seeing a big change on the way for October; with Nov & Dec also looking Atlantic driven with a fired up jet! We live in hope!Unfortunately the ecm monthly doesn't agree. A snapshot into October shows The ecm monthly control indicates a true Indian summer is on the way for periods into October. Both the mean &,control trend unsettled into last third of Sept however, before a return to the scandi ridge is shown.

Agreed on that, there is definitely the possibility of that tropical storm giving the Azores high enough of a kick north eastwards that it could hop over the Iberian low and build over or to the north east of the UK. As others have said the ECM and GEM operationals are quite keen on this idea. Still given the existence of this tropical low then I think any run beyond around 5 days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.

your post is very true phil, I never take any set of charts from one source without looking at how they relate to other outputs, although I rarely make any comment about any other set of data. The anomaly part is just one part of the information with the predicted contour pattern being at least as important as what any anomaly shows especially if it is lower than 60dm. Be that + or -. The main feature in the 8-14 set of charts over the past week is how the trough, to the west or initially SW of the UK, has been smoothed out with a more general flow from a more westerly point at 500mb being predicted. Apart from the Tropical Storm possibly upsetting the apple cart that would seem to be the most likely upper air pattern in the current 8-14 day time frame I think.

This is a nearly perfect scenario for drawing up late summer heat Low pressure off Portugal influencing us, with no other low pressure influence, meaning we are the northern-most point of the circulation, and everything is coming from our south. All that's missing for a really hot blast is better heights over Central Europe, which would tighten the isobars dragging up the warmer air quicker and giving a drier feed too. As it is, pretty good for warmth in September, but we still may see 24C/25C as the temperature ceiling due to the slack air and possibility of a thundery influence preventing nice blue skies.

It looks as though some areas of the uk will keep things dry for at another week at least. Models, including the met office updates have been really useless in there short to medium forecasts. Models have made a mockery of forecasting unfortunately. The tropical storms in the Atlantic have really given the models a picticular headache this year. Its going to take someting the other side of the pond to at last give the jet stream a kick to the Uk. Nothing to suggest that for now, but of course its just a matter of time..........

Indeed Milhouse, the GFS is even showing 27C in the South for next Saturday- it's still a long way off but it looks increasingly likely that temperatures will rise towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a southeasterly setting up.

It is becoming more apparent that changes in daylight does play a role in the brain in producing serotonin. I suffer with a debilitating illness/disease that only affects me during late August into September and occasionally between April/May. Although my condition is not understood well neurologists believe there is correlation between daylight and serotonin levels.

what kind of "flooring" should he be? apart from onions?

His argument I believe is that by saying Scotland will be snowy - he's correct - high altitude typically always will. He keeps it vague enough to mean he will always be correct. So yes, utter tool. The fact you can't add unmoderated comments to his fb page is testimony to his toolishness

Compare the 2 in bold almost identical positioning, but the newer one considerably closer to the surface Saturday 13.09.2014 07:58:15 64.666 -17.447 3.0 km 4.9 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday 12.09.2014 23:58:55 64.672 -17.485 7.1 km 4.7 99.0 4.1 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday 12.09.2014 23:52:13 64.671 -17.461 7.6 km 3.1 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga According to the wonderful Google maps almost exactly 750m horizontal separation between the quake last night and the same strength on this morning, 4,600 Metres vertical separation, which is a big distance for the strain to travel. My thought exactly

Oh it will Gavin by dragging up warmer se winds and with the chance of thundery showers later next week!

Loving it so far

As ido mentioned next weekend is up in the air at the moment. The ECM ops doesn't retreat the Iberian low as much as the GfS. It does build the ridge central Atlantic and moves it east with a SW/NE orientation. On the surface the UK, mainly the south still influenced by slack low pressure and the temps around average but at this stage discussing the temperature and weather is rather pointless speculation given the somewhat fluid analysis and lack of agreement. The GFS has Edouard ending up near Iberia!

Its a case that anything after D6 is very speculative. Just looking at the models at D6 highlights the uncertainty as to the track and strength of the tropical storm: (TS) GEM: GFS: UK: ECM: At the moment the most likely outcome from this TS is that it will temporarily disrupt the Azores Atlantic ridge as it stalls when it runs into the Atlantic ridge. The ridge is then replaced with a trough and higher heights should build on the eastern flank, close to the UK. The GEM at D10 is the most smooth evolution: The GFS op hints at this but s a much quicker transition: However the GEFS mean leans more towards the GEM's slower track of the TS so the associated ridge is more apparent at D10: ECM also slower progression and by D9: All interesting but pure guesswork at the moment. In the short term as the models have been hinting at for a while with the friendly placement of the upper low to the SW we are going to get a plume from around D4 for around 3 days (+12c uppers for the south on GFS): 2m temps London: Variations as to intensity and longevity cross model though. Should be some convection with that sort of flow. Remaining dry before then with just above average temps for most.

A quick glance at the 18z GFS en passant and it would appear to be moving towards a transition. There is weakening of the Iberian trough and a build up of heights in the western Mediterranean ridging into southern Europe. By Monday the trough has disappeared with a major trough western Atlantic. Still quite warm but less so than Friday. GFS 00z ops A quick glance and the anomalies are a tad bizarre. It has the Iberian low marching south west and introduces a small enclosed shallow low Stornaway which travels south east to the North Sea in the next 24hours while the IB low continues to disappear.

Aurora on the live stream!

I guess that it is important to differentiate between those who use the known atmospheric states to help predict the what weather the winter will bring and those who hopecast or do just guess. It is early days yet, but the likes of Cohen et al, are really helping in longer range winter forecasting for the northern hemisphere!

Lots of uncertainty in the longer term thanks to the development of further ex-tropical storm activity coming into the mix - it seems we are at the mercy of these features at the moment - they have certainly been the big player and there track appears to be crucial as to how things pan out here, hence BBC mentioning a northerly tracking feature which I suspect would mean a strong ridge anchoring itself over the country, but its all conjecture at this stage. In the reliable - the high pressure looks like declining slowly eastwards allowing low heights over Iberia to edge NE towards our SW shores producing greater instability. Indeed before then we have a very weak warm front moving westwards into eastern Britain meaning much cloudier damp conditions by Sunday and into the start of the week for much of the east and north east. As we move towards the latter part of the month -you would expect the atlantic to start to fire into gear, its rare for it to go into sustained slumber at this time of year for any great length of time - the odds quickly start to stack in the favour of the atlantic, very much a case of waiting for the inevitable, but an unusually long wait it seems this year..

The best forcast that the biggest world computers can give is at best vague,in the short term they can be quite accurate but long range forcasts are nothing more than guess's .They do not tell us anything??....That is correct for most of the time!!!!

In just over a week we will be half way towards the night time getting lighter !!!!!

The convective blowup you mentioned has not been able to sustain itself. Even though banding features have developed on the southern and western edge of the system, it seems that the LLCC (low level circulation center) is once again becoming exposed. Visible satellite loop of Odile. It seems that Odile has been moving toward an upper level anticyclone located to its northwest, which is imparting significant amounts of northerly shear on the system. This can be seen on the shear analysis below: Shear analysis of the Eastern Pacific, as of 18 UTC. Odile is located at the extreme eastern edge of the image, near 16N 105W. The upper level anticyclone can be found near 20N, 110 W (this can be seen by the anticyclonic flow around the system). As long as this anticyclone resides near Odile, the tropical storm will continue to have trouble developing. BTW: Spot on first post Somerset Squall, really nicely in-depth, and also the possibility westward movement of Odile you noted was on target. Sources: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc.html

Not strictly true. In fact, far from it. It was no surprise that a strongly positive QBO last winter contributed to the stratospheric driving of the troposphere. But this was just one of many factors that assisted the poor winter (snow wise) that the UK endured. It may be too early to assess all of the ingredients in the mix for winter this year, but rest assured that already the ingredients that we do know are likely, are far better for something colder and drier! It is wrong to suggest that teleconnective drivers don't tell us anything.

We are so evolved that we can understand such logic, don't bet on this rift episode does not effect our future, it well could. It could switch off and everything go on as normal at any time. The load remains on the North Atlantic rift fault and her cross faults. Most do not enter such conversation on the internet (with a small I) It is dodgy ground, but volcanoes make dodgy ground. Science does not know, has not been there nor done that. Mr Lucas, Iceland did Star Wars OK? The sun and her pulses may effect the readings tonight on the drums and other like equipment, so we are blind anyhow, god with a small G I am humbled. If this is a long period wave beginning then it is very big... Very in this episode, I have not seen such...

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/jokulsarlon/ flow there looks fairly high plus a lot of ice has gone from there now http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/gullfoss/ that waterfall looks amazing and pretty strong flow too

The stress relief at Iceland will demand counterbalance.

For selfish reasons I want it to continue! I am ADDICTED!

I think anything properly Atlantic driven is a long way off at the moment, we will see some rain or showers beyond this weekend as pressure falls and low pressure to the west of Portugal threatens the UK. Looks warmer than average and any rainfall isn't guaranteed to be honest. As ensembles go, there is agreement on the ridge to our east declining somewhat, though the jet still looks to be taking a more northerly path than usual so more of a north/south split with the south becoming drier than average whilst the north sees more mixed conditions. A long way off, this Scandi high/ Iberian low combo could continue on for much longer than we currently think.

A stunning album of a glacier trip and an alternative view of the eruption. http://dreki.smugmug.com/Photo/Volcao-trip-September-2014/i-mntF8Dx/A Couple of examples.

Yeh, sorry we have an autumn thread and we have a winter thread, I can't see where this fits or what it can add, so will lock it!

Gavin Partridge has done his JMA Friday video this now covers December currently JMA is looking similar to December last year, the December outlook starts 10 mins in if you want to skip the October and November outlook https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2Ur--U1a2Y#t=708 Not to be taken seriously of course at this very early stage

reef, are predictions of future Arctic sea ice levels and therefore peoples expectations not based upon resolving the issue of the relative strength of natural variation and man's influence. Is this not a time coming to resolve what forces climate? If the Arctic is 'the canary in the mine' then this is when and where it happens. If they are right I am proven to be wrong! I can lay off with the tech but I cannot bend to things that I don't agree with. I feel this needs a balance of at least some who believe that the natural drivers are grossly underestimated. You may choose to delete this post, it is after all your thread, your call. I haven't received any warnings before deletion of posts. (Can't believe you deleted Oldsnowywizard's opinion. Surely someone can express one?)

Im not into pattern matching or analogues but with the current set up regarding the PDO, solar activity appearing to drop again, and ENSO treading into weak nino territory would this not increase the odds of a colder than average winter?

Disagree, the correlation between a cold eastern Us and western Europe is quite high. Last year was just bad luck.

This month is turning into one of the driest and most boring Septembers in memory. Still no any concrete sign of a change from the anticyclonic pattern. I hope when Autumn does finally arrive it arrives with vengeance.

Yes Reef, The cooler nights are certainly reminding me we are in Autumn. All the decaying smells have started, some trees are turning, Fog and lots of dew in the mornings.

The recent weather hasn't been what I would call summer-like as minimum temperatures rarely dip to 7-8C in summer here, but it has been lovely with daytime maxima of 17-19C, plenty of sunshine and little wind. The low sun is very noticeable now and the grass decidedly wet when I cut it earlier despite no rain for quite a few days. What I am not looking forward to is the onset of easterlies over the next few days. Its bound to bring cloud, cool maxima and high minima to this area - pretty much what dogged this area all through the spring.

But 'extreme' doesn't necessarily mean cold and snowy...Exceptionally warm and wet would be equally extreme?

I wouldnt worry about the content if anyones winter forecast as the varification for the UK is as good as a coin toss, the most your ever going to get is an increased probability forecast related to the 3 main drivers ( for us anyway ) being - ENSO, stratsophere & the QBO. These linked together will certainly begin to populate some form of background signal in terms of the integrity of the zonal wind. The problem is whilst we are shuffling along edging closer to less pixalated understanding of warming events we are yet to really get a grip of how the stratosphere is going to look for the winter as a mean state, whether it be warm or very cold. Anyone & that really is ANYONE releasing a definitive winter forecast prior to december -1 may as file it in trash. We can certainly speculate on the other 2 MAIN variables which at this stage seem supportive of a pattern a little more blocky - however until the stratosphere is suitably measured & tracked throughout November then thats all it will be. Even when that becomes clear & we stand on the eve of december its not straight forward - especially predicting cold. From a winter point of view the correlation of mild winters & very cold stratospheres has a very strong link - However the signal on the inverse is less pronounced, all it does having a warmer background stratosphere is release its grip on the tight vortex & allow the other signals to compete for the pole position. The strat is certainly the mercedes F1 team at the moment with things like the qbo & enso fighting for the lower podium & lower points places - Relating to the above I would place the SAI somewhere in the back of the pack like a Sauber - something to consider overall but not a MAJOR global pattern dictator, but more relevent to our quartile of the globe. This place is like a rollercoaster at the best of times, so no need for early highs & lows with any forecasts released already or anytime soon as they cant take into account the most critical piece of information......, Ciao S

I guess its time to slooowly get this show on the road. All my graphics will be in a bit higher resolution this season, and perhaps a few new visualizations.

I would agree. Forget the solstice periods when you either have wonderfully long days or horribly short ones, it's the inbetween times that would benefit most from staying on BST all year. The plunge in late October is especially dangerous - the evening rush hour suddenly in darkness and at a time when traffic volumes are at their yearly max (well sure were in Nottingham anyway - Oct-Dec was always the worst). And also in late Feb & early March daylight is wasted before many are awake whilst we still have to flick the switch at 5 or 6pm when almost everyone is awake and doing things. Perhaps if GMT was only for mid Nov to mid Jan it'd be ok!