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Showing content with the highest reputation on 13/09/14 in Posts

  1. November, you're too black and white on this. What offends me about the way that many of the yes supporters portray those who disagree with them - the no voters - is the oft-stated view that they've been taken in by the MSM and are (by implication) incapable of independent analysis of the situation. Do you not accept that there are very many legitimate reasons for favouring the status quo? It appears that at least 40% of the Scottish electorate agree with me in my firm intention to vote no (although we'll not know that for sure until Friday coming). I think that there are very many things
    18 points
  2. November, you clearly have strong views, but I don't share them - and I don't lack debate because it's all over the media, and because the few 'yes' supporters I know, including members of my own family, are evangelical in their beliefs, and rarely miss a chance to try to convert me to their way of thinking ;-). I understand very well why 'yes' supporters think as they do - but I don't share their views. I can disagree with every single one of your points, but you wouldn't accept anything I said because I'm from the 'other' side, and where you see black and white, I see only shades of grey
    8 points
  3. This is getting worse than a big easterly in winter at +120hrs...
    6 points
  4. Yes, of course. That only corrects a low respondent problem if not much weighting is required and/or sometimes you are up-weighting a group, sometimes down, i.e. you have no real problem reaching them on average. However, a pollster should be asking why quasi-random sampling can't get the SNP comfortably ahead in 2011 recall in unweighted bases. They won by 16 points overall in a landslide and are a popular party of government. Why then are their voters so tricky to find. Well, if they are refusing to be polled... This is not just a Survation problem, but one all pollsters are having t
    6 points
  5. one of the most 'considered' posts in this whole thread, a pleasure to read and some very good points based on sound logic........quite a few 'yes' and 'no' supporters in this thread could take a lot on board from this post, and not just the actual content, but the manner in which said content is put across (i.e in a non-confrontational manner)
    6 points
  6. 5 points
  7. 5 points
  8. Fairly good agreement from the GFS/GEM and UKMO up to day 6 A moderate at first east to south easterly, becoming slacker and increasingly warm from mid week with temperatures reaching the mid twenties in the south. Good agreement on the track of the storm heading towards the Azores, this is a pretty good ticket for the Azores high to be displaced towards the UK. Looks like cold air could spill into the Atlantic too which could reinforce the current pattern.
    5 points
  9. ...and of course which poll was "that ECM"
    4 points
  10. November, I don't doubt your credentials at all, and you're entitled to your opinion and your beliefs. I also feel your pain - in my industry too all of the senior jobs and decision-making has gone south, leaving us up here just to do the actual work. But you take your choice in this - and for me the penalty of not wearing the 'big boots' is outweighed by the far better quality of life I experience in Scotland. It's not perfect, but like I said before, nowhere is. No, I don't think social injustice and deprivation is the UK's fault, because I don't think it's anyone's fault - it just 'is'. W
    4 points
  11. In the interests of clarity about my credentials.Not 15.44 Honours degree in psychology,HNC Business studies,worked in insurance industry for 16 years,ran for Scotland internationally,been in SNP since 18,studied Scottish history and economics my whole adult life.I am technically middle class in every definition.But I believe Scotland is held back by the union.I believe even in my own field the big jobs are kept for London.I don't see why I should have to go to London to get a better job.I have witnessed every large Scottish insurance company being taken over and the jobs quickly moving down s
    4 points
  12. Further to Decomms post. Whats the difference between these two statements. I'm voting No because I think it's better for my family and Scotlands future. I'm voting Yes because I think it's better for my family and Scotlands future. Theres isn't any, if people genuinely believe either what gives the right to anyone to judge them. This is the whole point of a democracy, people are free to choose what they want to do. Decomms made her views known in an honest post, that's how she feels and she has every right to feel that way, just as November 13 has every right to feel the
    4 points
  13. I'm not sure most people with families and kids to support would agree with a "bring it on" attitude to a depression. The point is that, whilst there is an element of focusing on the negative, the YES campaign has grown rather too fond of shouting "scaremongering" at the raising of any point about possible negative consequences of independence. A little more recognition that, yes, there are dangers and genuine risks of some things really not going very well would do them no harm. The idea that none of these problems are realistic possibilities is simply head in the sand stuff.
    4 points
  14. Agree we seem to be at the mercy of the tropical storms at the moment - waiting to see what they do, thanks to a very quiet 'atlantic' in the main, however, traditionally the atlantic gets its act together later in September thanks to a resurgent Polar vortex, this year it seems to have gone to sleep for a lengthy period, unsure what to do, allowing these tropical features to dictate affairs, but as you say only a matter of time that we see the PV become the major player in our weather , the early plunge of cold into mid lattitudes over north America likely to fuel the PV into action as we see
    3 points
  15. So yesterday, I asked what the yes vote have planned regarding currency and haven't seem to have had any answers, other than to keep the pound. But surely a newly independent Scotland wouldn't want a currency that they have no control and influence of - I can't see the governor of the Bank of England taking Scotland into account when he is setting rates if they have chosen Independence! No doubt Alex Salmond would just dismiss these real concerns as scare mongering. As he would potential job losses. So how many people are employed by the Scottish naval base in the Clyde that construct
    3 points
  16. Someone reporting an IÇM poll where yes have 8% lead.Not confirmed yet of source or validity! Sorry Nick forgot your space again hope you can read this!
    3 points
  17. We're all different, whether the cause be medical, emotional, whatever. What makes you happy makes me sad and vice versa. I can accept that but tend to react accordingly when I'm portrayed as some unsocial misfit for being in the minority.
    3 points
  18. Edinburgh taxi driver, "whose going to get the contract then?". Passenger, "what contract?". Taxi driver, " the one to rebuild Hadrian's Wall".
    3 points
  19. Yes Nick the no side is a con.Scotland will be better economically and culturally after a yes vote.The media and MPs are protecting their jobs.It might be to blunt for you Nick but that's it in a nutshell hence the fear campaign.They have no positive vision just fearfear.Salmond has nothing to agree with their threats and utterances as they are 90% bull.I suspect you want me to agree with some of their stories.But I don't there is nothing Scotland could not do better with independence.Name me one thing and I will happily discuss with you.Some things are just not worth debating Nick.Threats abo
    3 points
  20. James Madden is a complete and utter tool. Last "winter" he just could not stop himself from forecasting snow over and over again..week in week out...while in the real world the rain and wind just kept on coming. He is a clown..a fraud...and I feel a strange sense of sympathy for those gullible enough to believe the diarrhoea that emanates from him, as they clearly do not possess the intelligence required to see the truth. As for my early hopes for this winter...a normal winter will do just fine. Any repeat of the hideous spawn of satan of 2013/14 and I am emigrating.
    3 points
  21. Looking at UKMO this morning the low to the west of Portugal doesn't look like it will have much impact on the UK
    3 points
  22. I think there is as much chance of another scandi block than a westerly flow in week 2. Whatever transpires, patterns look to remain slack.
    3 points
  23. BBC playing down the YES voters.............. You decide
    2 points
  24. Are you serious?.....NOTHING beats that! (close tho'!)
    2 points
  25. Ignore Curtice. He's never done that before, e.g. when Yougov use a 1200+ sample size (thus should be 1.2). BBC pay his wages. 700 is not a small sample. Scotland is 5.3 million. UK is 65 million yet 1k is considered fine. Yes lead in that poll is not down to sample size. I'll check tables as normal.
    2 points
  26. I think I'm beginning to wonder if that poll earlier today is fake or not.
    2 points
  27. Another snap of Glasgow. Similar scenes in other cities - I've seen vids from Inverness and Perth on Facebook. As I understand it, largely to an extent spontaneous; Yes organise something with local activists, then passers by just join in. Dougie McLean (writer of song) appears and joins in singing Caledonia in Perth. https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152372826592496&set=vb.596992495&type=2&theater This is all being shown by the MSM right?
    2 points
  28. If we wanted a global example to work with, we'd need: - A small country ruled by a larger one. - Small country threatening to go independent - Large country heavily in control of media in the small country - Almost no media outlets pro-independence; all largely against - Large country able to put pressure on businesses etc - Large country threatening small country - 3/4 main parties in small country backing stance of same party in large country, i.e. against independence. It would be interesting if we had an example like that and found: - Analyses of internet traffic said Ye
    2 points
  29. Next weekend is shaping up rather good if the GFS 12z is correct with warm air over the UK and winds dropping resulting in some very warm temperatures likely. Low to mid 20s for the Midlands and southern England with some lingering mist and low cloud likely over eastern areas. Considering how the breakdown has continued to be pushed back, one cant call anything beyond next weekend.
    2 points
  30. Did they not teach you to put a space after a full stop during the course of your degree? It makes it extremely hard to (want to) read your posts.
    2 points
  31. After a week or so of fairly warm and bright conditions. It looks like this settled spell could develop some teeth this coming week with temperatures possibly pushing 80F by the middle and latter part of the week. Summer(esque) conditions are not dead yet.
    2 points
  32. Self-service tills at supermarkets. Frustrating, unreliable, impersonal and they take jobs away from people so the millionaire fat cats can save a few pounds. Kill them with fire!
    2 points
  33. As long as its not the same people that built the trams!
    2 points
  34. In one line you sum up how many YES voters on here and beyond have been coming across: arrogant folk who go in for a variety of ad hominems. No one's asking him to agree with "apocalyptic nonsense", just not to dismiss every single thing as "scaremongering". But it's pointless debating with you: the no side is all about "conning" people, according to you (the possibility that they genuinely believe the position they hold seems not to have occurred to you), and those of us who hold an opposing view and see things differently have been "on the silly pills".
    2 points
  35. A chat with an older relative who was very decisively no a little bit earlier. By their own admission they mainly relied on TV and printed press for news, but events over the last week got them annoyed enough they went online and found a very different take on things online and from overseas news sources. They are now YES and bristling about the BBC. So another success for HM Government's operation "shock and awe"!
    2 points
  36. Erm, I seem to have woken up in an alternative reality this morning. WTF. Magnus Gardham? Seriously? I must be still asleep surely. Archived in case, but there in the Herald for now. LOL Seems it was attributed to the wrong author. Hilarious. Who wrote it and how did that happen? EDIT. Maybe it's Ian MacWhirter's editorial in the Sunday Herald and someone accidentally uploaded it under Gardham. His face must have been a picture.
    2 points
  37. Agreed on that, there is definitely the possibility of that tropical storm giving the Azores high enough of a kick north eastwards that it could hop over the Iberian low and build over or to the north east of the UK. As others have said the ECM and GEM operationals are quite keen on this idea. Still given the existence of this tropical low then I think any run beyond around 5 days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.
    2 points
  38. your post is very true phil, I never take any set of charts from one source without looking at how they relate to other outputs, although I rarely make any comment about any other set of data. The anomaly part is just one part of the information with the predicted contour pattern being at least as important as what any anomaly shows especially if it is lower than 60dm. Be that + or -. The main feature in the 8-14 set of charts over the past week is how the trough, to the west or initially SW of the UK, has been smoothed out with a more general flow from a more westerly point at 500mb being pre
    2 points
  39. A few more thoughts on polls! YG where it's asked the question has continued to be out on it's own with Labour leading in Scotland for Westminster Voting Intention. The IPSOS Mori Westminster VI poll out on Friday has the SNP 11% (13% ex don't knows/ wont votes) ahead of Labour in the Scotland subset. In terms of Scottish Seats, Electoral Calculus predicts these figures for the May 2015 UK General Election: SNP: 40 MPs (+34)Lab: 16 MPs (-25)Con: 3 MPs (+ 2)L/D: 0 MPs (-11)That sort of result would on current Lib Dem poll ratings propel the SNP into the the third UK party in the House
    2 points
  40. Heard it was one Rab! But if its two all the better.Not sure if its Darling or Murphy lol!Also expectingthe Sun to be Yes by Monday!
    2 points
  41. Its a mandate to negotiate independence not a menu with all items listed and priced.However currency is a minor matter when all is said and done.We will have a curency it will be Sterling.There is a certain deliberate calculated spin by no campaigners that yes should have everything priced and placed before the vote.Its just incredible nonsense.Its not a house we are selling we are creating a new nation.It has to be accepted that in negotiations some things will stay and others go.The question is not what currency do you want it starts with do you want to be a nation or not.If you can't answer
    2 points
  42. Regardless of how Scotland votes I'm glad I've had the privilege of discussing/reading the debate on NW. Lots of intelligent and informed people on here and I'm grateful to have had a different perspective and collection of thought and ideas than I might have otherwise had. Keep it up!
    2 points
  43. We'll only need to wait until Friday morning to get the verification stats.
    1 point
  44. It looks as though some areas of the uk will keep things dry for at another week at least. Models, including the met office updates have been really useless in there short to medium forecasts. Models have made a mockery of forecasting unfortunately. The tropical storms in the Atlantic have really given the models a picticular headache this year. Its going to take someting the other side of the pond to at last give the jet stream a kick to the Uk. Nothing to suggest that for now, but of course its just a matter of time..........
    1 point
  45. Not strictly true. In fact, far from it. It was no surprise that a strongly positive QBO last winter contributed to the stratospheric driving of the troposphere. But this was just one of many factors that assisted the poor winter (snow wise) that the UK endured. It may be too early to assess all of the ingredients in the mix for winter this year, but rest assured that already the ingredients that we do know are likely, are far better for something colder and drier! It is wrong to suggest that teleconnective drivers don't tell us anything.
    1 point
  46. One month ago the margin was a city the size of Aberdeen all voting one way to change the result. Now the margin is a city the size of Dunfermline. Pretty remarkable really... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_towns_and_cities_in_Scotland_by_population Re - remaining polls... Scottish #indyref poll schedule, via Citi: Sept 13/14 @YouGov; Sept 14 ICM (poss); Sept 17 Ipsos Mori, Survation, @YouGov 'final' poll.# Look at this lovely authentic picture of the campaign trail today.. Nick Robinson should be suspended http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/our_work/edi
    1 point
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