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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/08/14 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Good morning fellow SE/EA folks. Yesterday was a day that will live in my memory for quite a while. My wife and I had agreed to drive up to Huntingdon yesterday afternoon to meet my son, girlfriend and their little boy after my son left work for the day. We left home at about 14.15 to sunny intervals and a temperature of about 23C according to my car thermometer, although it felt a lot hotter than that, as well as sticky and uncomfortable due no doubt to the high humidity. By the time we were passing by the village of Takeley it had started to drizzle and when we had reached the large roundabout at Stansted it was sheeting it down in biblical proportions. It was so heavy that I considered it to be too dangerous to progress onto the M11 and so we made for the Birchanger Services just off the roundabout along with many other motorists. Having parked there for about 20 minutes until the deluge relented a little I then had to queue up for some time to exit onto the roundabout as everyone else had the same idea! The M11 was very slow from the moment we joined and was at gridlock by the time we reached Cambridge. By this time the rain had intensified again and I decided to leave at Junction 13 as I know a route when one can join the M11/A14 junction near the crematorium later. We stopped in a Cambridge side road for about 10 minutes as it was difficult to see the road ahead as it was raining so heavily. On rejoining the main route the traffic was still heavy for some miles but gradually thinned out after the Biggleswade exit. Water was however pouring off the fields onto the inside lane of the motorway. When we arrived at the first exit for Huntingdon (80's Weather will know where I mean) taking the road to Godmanchester and at the traffic calming measure that narrows the road by the allotments we had to queue for some time as drivers approached what must have been about 2 feet of floodwater. The rest of the journey was fairly straightforward but instead of taking about 75 minutes on a good day it took about 3 hours 20 minutes. Our return journey home was not as bad, although we encountered torrential rain for the vast majority of the journey and the road into Godmanchester had remained flooded. We did note that even at after 10 in the evening there was still a queue of traffic northbound in the vicinity of Cambridge for several miles. Kind regards Dave
  2. 5 points
    Just had to delete a post, Can we please only discuss Model Output in here. There are other threads for "I told you so's" and Weather gambling.. Many Thanks. PM
  3. 5 points
    it's the met (office) police Neil....they're coming to getcha!
  4. 4 points
    Looks like a feasible run to me. The working week will be much cooler and windier than what we've been used to, conditions best in the S. By Fri it will start to settle down and slowly warm up, next weekend doesn't look too bad, especially for the S, surface temps look to be average. Hopefully not too much infill to ruin things. Think the major difference next week will be nighttime temps...a chill in the air! Should be better for sleeping anyway.
  5. 4 points
    This looks a bit like the Azores high to me?
  6. 4 points
    21 days left of August left, I'd say there is still time for something decent to crop up. What is that low in the Atlantic going to do? It does look like the Azores high could ridge in to bring better weather next weekend. That low needs watching as its movement could swing where we head in week 2. UKMO looks the most positive about a pressure build next weekend with the high in place even by Friday. The others are slower and less effective.
  7. 3 points
    Unlikely, as sting jets tends to occur with rapid cyclogenesis of lows that are associated with confluent troughs where there are rapid pressure rises causing a tight pressure gradient. RACY rarely occurs this time of year and besides, this low is slow deepener in a diffluent trough. Still going to be rather windy for early Aug though!
  8. 3 points
    After an unsettled spell things slowly calm down from Thursday looking at the ecm ens though it will still be cooler than we've become use to with a northwesterly flow Friday is a similar picture though pressure continues to rise from the south west During next weekend and into the following week the move to higher pressure continues with winds slowly moving round to a westerly allowing warmer air to move back in
  9. 3 points
    GFS and ECMWF operationals still sticking to their guns, UKMO fax still in between. Not often you see such a gap in tracks at t+36 hours out. Just goes to show the difficulties NWP has at simulating lows with ex-tropical storm energy in their make-up and whether or not the low phases favourably with upper trough catching it up from the west and whether or not it falls under the jet left exit on the cold side of the jet to deepen and move NE rather than track east as a shallow feature.
  10. 3 points
    After the GEM op was going against its control and majority ensemble consensus the op has now come in line: JMA is similar with track and intensity as it travels NE: Navgem who has followed ECM blindly now has the GFS route: The hi res models show the potential for strong gusts tracking just south of Bertha centre: Still differences though: And where GFS has the worse rain in the Midlands, ECM has it as the driest: GFS for the next 5-7 days looks like cooler temps with the uppers 3-4c below average for London: The op and control are unsettled with no sustained higher pressure; tentative signs of next weekend settling down for the far south. But the end are in good agreement and the D10 mean reflects this: ECM at D8 looks more promising but bearing in mind they are the only model going for a different track on Bertha anything that follows is debatable: Unless of course they are right. Though ECM did not spot typhoon Rammasun till the morning it hit the Philippines whereas GFS had tracked it for over a week. In fact GFS spotted Bertha on 28th July and its timing was only about a day out even at that range:
  11. 3 points
  12. 3 points
  13. 3 points
    Another update in my blog after digesting the 12z output: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6068;sess= 2100 update 08/08/2014 Still the models disagree less than 48 hours away from when the centre of the depression formed from ex-Bertha makes landfall somewhere across the west of mainland UK on Sunday morning. 12z GFS takes the centre of the low up through the Irish Sea on Sunday morning and makes landfall across Cumbria around lunchtime before exiting over SE Scotland into the North Sea, the centre on land crossing circa 985mb, so fairly deep for the time of year. It shows wind gusts of 40-60mph over coasts and hills of SW England, Wales and northern England - perhaps more on the lee side of the Pennines and mountains of N Wales, plus funnel effect of valleys. 30-40mph gusts further south and east. Rainfall totals of 50mm+ across southern Ireland, 20-30mm max across Wales and N England. ECMWF, on the other hand, takes the low centre, a shallower feature, NE across S England, exiting The Wash into the N Sea around 995mb. Winds and rainfall totals less, but still appreciable to make Sunday a windy wash out across much of England and Wales. Met Office T+48 fax chart for noon Sunday is in between ECM and GFS tracks but closer to the ECM depth with 996mb, so perhaps this maybe the best compromise for the likely track for now. GFS indicates a convective element to this storm system, with instability and strong wind shear in the warm sector just ahead of the cold front sweeping east - so there is a risk of organised embedded storms, perhaps supercells, which could produce their own severe weather in the form of strong convective gusts, large hail and even a tornado or two ... I will look into this scenario in a storm forecast to be issued nearer the time.
  14. 3 points
    Thunder and lightning for pretty much 6 hours. Crazy. Saw one last distant flash as I left Tesco recently.
  15. 3 points
    Some pretty bad quality lightning stills, the last one is from a CG, couldnt manage to get the bolt when pausing the video.
  16. 3 points
  17. 2 points
    In terms of appreciable heat, time is fast running out. Only James Madden is continuing to suggest 30C by months end is still on the cards. Those that want to bang the drums of heat based on nothing more than hope - then by all means, enjoy! GEFS temp anom days 0-16 0z
  18. 2 points
    Hi Cleeve...you can also use this link http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html Nick, Is there a possibility this storm could produce a `sting jet` ?
  19. 2 points
    I must say the models have still not pinned down the track or the power of it yet. I think we know when the storm is near us. And it could be stronger then forecast.
  20. 2 points
    It's nice to see the models flipping around as much in summer as they do in winter. Makes one look forward to the winter! Anyway, IMHO, the ECM is not the right model for looking at forecasts as we come into the 36 hour period. The ECM is strongest from about four days out; glancing at the charts in summer with rather less regularity than in winter, it occurs to me that the ECM did pick up a rapidly deepening low about a week or so ago which was largely written off by most (understandably as such deep systems are fairly rare at this time of year). IIRC, the system was shown to be about 996mb off the coast of Cornwall, whereas the GFS at the same distance showed nothing of the sort. Since then the GFS has gone for the deeper system whereas the ECM operational shows a shallower feature tracking further south. At this range I don't really trust either and pay much more attention to the FAX, being a blend of several models plus hi-res output, and the other available hi-res models. Having said that, the NMM was off target for yesterday, showing heaving rain mainly affecting Kent, Sussex and parts of East Anglia whereas in reality we had something of a deluge in Reading. So, I'm sticking pretty much with met office guidance on this one which is not to say that the models aren't interesting in terms of spot the difference, but the detail is lacking, particularly in the ECM where only 24 hour time periods are shown.
  21. 2 points
    My parents always used to take me and my sister on summer holidays to Italy, and after a childhood of experiencing 'proper' thunderstorms I have never thought any Scottish storms were severe. I'm sure the US storms are even more severe than the Italian ones, so you'll be in an even worse position. The Scottish storms try their wee best, but never really get out of 2nd gear. ECM still looks like the weather will settle down in about 8 to 10 days...too much more of this current weather and it'll be time to start dreaming of autumn and winter
  22. 2 points
    just to give members an idea of the amount of rainfall that's been falling this evening, here's the rainfall accumulations for the past 6 hours.....some parts of the region have already had around an inch of rain with more to come for those to the east of London...
  23. 2 points
    We're still bashing the old meto/beeb over here are we? I'd hoped you'd all managed to grow up! wishful thinking eh? Meanwhile... Very wet out there, lots of surface flooding in the way back from Hatfield.
  24. 2 points
    I emailed the BOM and asked whether the recent Australian coldwave was significant enough for them to release a Special Climate Statement, which is issued whenever a historical significant weather events takes place. The Special Climate Statement page: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/ I got a quick reply which was nice of them: Fair enough.
  25. 2 points
    I detect the beginnings of the ol' north v south argument when it comes to storms. Please don't start that nonsense here.
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