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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/08/14 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    ECM overdoing the low - Definite On the other hand the ECM suggesting a way to pull up a pure source of hot continental air. This chart interests me as it's a evolution which will deepen and sharpen the trough and allow a proper plume event. The UKMO is also sending a low towards Iberia along the subtropical jet, again this could lead to a possible rise in temperatures. The GEM is much slower and the GFS phases the low around day 5 and has no effect later on. Given the longwave pattern, the chances of developing warmer weather is pretty high, this summer has proved that quite well as trough dominated FI charts have often been shifted westward with time. Something to watch as always. This coming week is looking pretty reasonable, never dropping to even average levels of temperature in the south and even the north seeing better conditions for a time. Like this week I suspect that any rainfall will be showery in nature as fronts struggle to make an impact against the Sceuro block. So the convective thread should be kept ticking over this week.
  2. 7 points
    Although it is a messy picture today there are areas that interest me. Firstly I notice the CAPE levels indicated by GFS for this afternoon with around 700-1000j/kg being progged, this almost mirrored by the NMM although CAPE just slightly watered down on here for the same sort of time. Lapse rates are up earlier in the afternoon with the highest lapse rates transferring northward through the afternoon and evening period. ELT's also looking favorable, these two things together would indicate a possibility of hail and frequent lightning as storms mature. Although there is some deep layer shear it is probably not enough in itself to allow storm organisation but low level shear and speed shear is looking better. This creates some interest in the early to mid afternoon for the Midlands into Northern England as there appears to be a slight tornado risk should any storms organise. Shear does look to increase from the south later in the afternoon and evening but this may be too late for the highest storm risk area as it moves northward (although keep this in mind for later). Clearly convective precipitation is not in short supply with the picture looking messy. This may actually prove to work against storm potential as we may just end up with a mass of heavy rain pushing north. Another thing that has caught my eye is the NMM developing a small area of enhanced CAPE (upwards of 1000j/kg) around Gloucestershire mid-late afternoon and a subsequent thunderstorm developing and moving NE through the Midlands into the late afternoon and evening. It is a small risk but if this did happen then this will form in the aforementioned area of more favorable shear and could develop into a more organised storm cell for a time. At this same time, looking at the wind charts, you can clearly see convergence over N England, this having pushed northward through the middle of the day and another area from the Gloucestershire to Midlands area. Overall it is a very messy picture and a complicated forecast. I am probably out my depth here but putting things together this could become a day of plenty of cloud and plenty of rain with the odd rumble. Alternatively today could become another good day for storms. If storms do occur there looks to be two prime risks. The first is along a band that pushes north across the Midlands by midday and into Northern/Eastern England this afternoon. The second is a lesser but more interesting risk of more a more isolated storm pushing NE from somewhere just inland of the Bristol channel up through the Midlands. Charts provided by netweather and www.lightningwizard.com/maps
  3. 6 points
    Rain certainly has arrived now,but got a couple of shots of the gust front before it started.
  4. 6 points
    I'm merely stating that the general level of thicknesses, uppers and sst's at the moment over the uk area leads to higher than average surface temps. That means when we have surface features that we might expect to lead to a cool day, we see temps managing to get to average at the very least, given a limited amount of solar input. Similarly, less than inspiring charts will lead to quite high temps in reality. perhaps think of the whole summer temp pattern being shifted a few hundred miles north of where we would expect it to be. at the moment, I'd say that londons 2014 summer climate is more akin to what I would expect to see just south of Paris.
  5. 5 points
    Can you support this because people might read it and think it's true? And for some reason you have omitted climate change. This is a bit jumbled but still arrant nonsense. Pumping billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere that was stored as part of a natural cycle patently must alter the carbon and hydrological cycles. Plus of course altering the natural radiation balance. Totally irrelevant and for some reason keeps getting repeated. Lung cancer occurred prior to tobacco. Ergo there is no link.
  6. 5 points
    No repeat of the yesterday's GFS 12z plume this evening, it had little support and even the hi-res are toning the uppers down for mid-week. From Monday the models continue to show a slack pressure flow over most of the UK with the Scandi ridge to the east and the trough centred around Iceland: Around late Wednesday the trough edges E/SE: Its a slow process but it does enough to put the majority of the UK under the influence of the jet; D6: A short wave and some fronts look likely to bring unsettled conditions to most. By D8 the GFS op has us under a shallow trough with the Azores a bit player for a couple of days but by D10 we are heading for another trough for 3-4 days: The control very similar to the op and maybe we are seeing the way forward. GEM is not dissimilar, it just notches up the cooler, wetter and windier scenario: UKMO strongly resembles GFS at D6: This all ties in with this morning's ECM run up to D9 where it goes off on one (cut off low) with little support from the ens: Despite the outlook I suspect temps in the SE to still be 2-3c above average on the dry days, and never too far away from warmer continental air, but closer to average in the north. Wetter the further W/NW and with high SST's there could be high precipitation totals as the cooler air moves in later next week.
  7. 5 points
  8. 5 points
    What to say, really. Not much has changed looking at the ensembles. Out to day 10, heights continue to build to our NE, with the core centred east of Finland; thus, the UK struggles to get in on the party in any great way, esp for western parts. Where the trough continues to dominate/control, up to and beyond day 10. days 4-9, 8-13 Height anom. temp anom days 7-12 GEFS height anom days 0-16 6Z GFS Ens - Belfast, NI Looking at the ensembles for Belfast where I am currently on holiday - the NW looks like staying unsettled throughout, with rain spikes aplenty and pressure struggling to rise above 1015hpa; the 6z op was a clear outlier post day 8 in terms of rising pressure, So, GEFS and ECM ens continue to show a changeable and at times unsettled outlook for the next week and beyond, most unsettled in the west, with the SE seeing the best of any brighter periods. Just to mention, this is a forecast from the models, not a hope cast. I do realise this may not accommodate most in here. But it is what it is. A forecast.
  9. 5 points
    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-08-02 10:12:31 Valid: 02/08/2014 1000z to 03/08/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Slow-moving upper trough axis lying N-S across western side of the UK and down into Iberia continues to drive a cyclonic S to SWly flow across much of the UK, veering W to NWly across EIRE. At the surface, an area of low pressure over the Irish Sea will slowly drift N, to be centred over SW Scotland by 00z, associated warm lying SW from SE Scotland to Liverpool Bay will move N while cold front lying S to Dorset will moves ENE, the cold front clearing the E coast by 00z. ... ENGLAND, WALES and S SCOTLAND ... Moist airmass will cover much of England and Wales today will become increasingly unstable though the day as falling temperatures aloft from the west and daytime heating create 400-800 j/kg CAPE. Large scale forcing from falling pressure/heights and lift from surface cold front moving through will support the development of thunderstorms, which may organise near cold/occluded fronts moving E, with more scattered t-storms also developing in the cooler flow following the fronts. More organised storms maybe capable of producing marginal large hail (1-2cm), strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall leading to localised flooding. Surface wind shift/backing winds ahead of frontal zone could allow rotation with more organised storms - so an isolated tornado can't be ruled out - particularly across E Midlands and E England. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  10. 4 points
    ECM hinting at some sort of background signal for intense LP storms: T216: Both ECM and GEM vary from GFS in that the latter pushes Scandi heights east whilst GEM/ECM even at T240 keep heights to the North/NE: GEM ECM: GFS The GEM & ECM effectively still hold the eastern block so the Atlantic hits a brick wall and any LP systems have the potential to initially deepen. ECM at D10 sends the heights to Iceland. I am again not convinced of this outcome: ...Not one GEFS member is even close to this and the mean highlights this: Could be wrong but probably another example why ECM D10 verification has been running at low levels for a while? Up till D8 ECM much like other models.
  11. 4 points
    The sun has returned, making way for some fab clouds.
  12. 4 points
    This is because we're measuring the temperature of the air. If you try to measure the temperature in the sun you actually measure the temperature of the instrument you're using to do the measuring, not that of the air. As all objects have differing albedos ( the ability to reflect solar radiation) then any thermometer exposed to the sun will not give an indication of the temperature you actually feel as human skin has a different capacity to absorb solar radiation than a thermometer. There are special Black bulb in vacuo thermometers ( a matt black thermometer in a matt black shield ) for trying to measure the temperature in the sun but even these are only comparable with each other and tests have shown that there can be significant variation in the readings of two such thermometers exposed side by side.
  13. 4 points
    Tricky as supacell says.I think supacell has picked up on something with some post frontal troughing. Top level humidity charts for NMM are picking this up. Looking at satellite pictures I have a feeling the troughing will be much closer to the back of the front. The little bit of dry air aloft between bands of rain could enhance convection in the second band of rain although NMM is not that keen on it. Mid level humidity charts also show some development behind the front. Mid level vorticity charts suggest better destabilisation of the frontal band as it moves out of the midlands. I cannot help thinking that cloud cover is going to play a part in keeping temperatures down and think surface based instability is likely to be more enhanced with post frontal troughing. Low level Wind shear looks best under the frontal band, but there is moderate deep layer shear. Low level shear being enhanced a little by perhaps a convergence zone in the south west. There is a fly in the ointment for post frontal storms and it comes in the form of the potential state of the top level of the atmosphere. Particularly temperature which will tend to limit cloud height. Overall slight chance of a storm. Cloud cover generally limiting development during the morning so north of the midlands generally favoured. Some postal frontal heavy showers possible with perhaps an isolated one being more severe.
  14. 4 points
    Models appear to be coming into line this morning and, funnily enough, if you'd averaged out the last 3 days runs you wouldn't have been far off. So no raging monsoon westerly, but no 'heatwave' either. Instead, many sunny days with decent temperatures and the odd shower, and one, possibly two days where the rain could last longer in places. Rain always more of an issue further to the NW and probably very little in the SE. FI recommences next weekend when a variety of options are on the table.
  15. 4 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z op run has all the right ingredients for another very warm / hot & humid thundery spell during the second half of next week with another pulse of continental conditions extending northwards across southern, central and eastern areas, especially the southeast. This is followed briefly by fresher air from the atlantic as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the southwest, eventually turning very warm again towards the southeast with high pressure close by over the near continent. For the time being, the weather looks warm and showery but with a mass of heavy rain spreading northwards tomorrow, reaching scotland later, warm, dry and sunny weather following for the south & east once the rain has cleared away but still the risk of a heavy shower. Early next week looks warm with sunshine and scattered thundery showers, longer term, the north west of the uk is likely to become most unsettled with atlantic weather for most of the time, however, it's a very different story for the southeast of the uk with a window of hot, hazy sunshine for the south and east before homegrown Tstorms break out again and storms drift north from france across eastern england..all in all, it's a very good early august for some of us.
  16. 3 points
    Good to have you back Cap'n, your post is bang on as all your posts have been throughout the summer. With a profile like that, I don't think there can fail to be some heat drawn up sometime in the next 10 days.
  17. 3 points
    Nice cell still rumbling to my north northeast..sure it was rotating aswell
  18. 3 points
    wow its all gone very quiet in here well here is a little fun fact I saw on twitter John Beattie â€@BBCJohnBeattie 1h So to recap, at 9.8 medals per million Scotland is most successful team, and 52 medals is best ever in finite and proportion terms ever... first of all well done to all the great Scottish athletes who have got us so many medals during these games. question is do you think with independence we will get better results in sports or will they suffer. personally I think independence will help our sports move forward as the Scottish government will be better placed to give them the support they need going forward as the Scottish government are closer to the Scottish athletes at grass roots and know better what infrastructure we need in this country. I also think it will help our other sports like football and such as we will surely have better bargaining powers for tv revenue plus with a separation of the union we may finally get to come out of the shadow of English sports that thanks to sky we see ourselves currently having to suffer.
  19. 3 points
  20. 3 points
    Turning scary here Just heard thunder. I can't believe I just almost took a good picture of a lightning!!
  21. 3 points
    No, you do not need to be in contact with the infected person. The nature and virulence of the disease is such that traces left in toilets can be introduced to cuts and through mucus membranes if hand hygiene is not observed. Reading the linked article about the lack of doctors brings home the reality of the challenge they face should the numbers infected escalate. http://qz.com/243686/five-charts-show-how-the-ebola-contagion-is-accelerating-in-west-africa/
  22. 2 points
    Yes but it looks to be temporary and confined to the SE. Not exactly extraordinary given the time of year. Unsettled definitely the main theme from tonight's output.
  23. 2 points
    Very unsettled run from the GEM this evening with multiple small LP systems and an ever-heading-southwards jet. May even be a dodgy run?
  24. 2 points
  25. 2 points
    Just got this going overhead now... a random rumble here and there, the wind has picked up (a lot), but no rain. (Edit: The rain has just moderately started now *yay* - 13:30)
  26. 2 points
    Yep thunder every minute here, nice little surprise
  27. 2 points
    8mm of that was in 15 minutes, the other 8.6mm was over 2 hours. That was definitely forecasted. lol
  28. 2 points
    This is worth a few moments to read: http://www.citizensmart.net/blog/ma-brother-ian-smart-time-to-act-johann
  29. 2 points
    Down here in the SE we'll be lucky to see a day (daytime max) under 20ºC for a considerable part of the month. Even the CET max last month only dipped to 19.4ºC on the 8th with most days above 20ºC. Today was a typical day down here - whilst a lot of the rest of the country had considerable rainfall we avoided this and had warm sunny spells with temps in the low to mid 20's. I suspect August will continue in the same vein.
  30. 2 points
    Israel again The law to them selfs, Ceasefire realised one of their soldiers got 'kidnapped' just before so back to to bombing them to kingdom come. Again how can a valiant resistance kidnap some one in their land, sanctions r needed and hope one day Iran treats them like rats like their do to Palestine then their will see the error in their ways, But its ok Israel just hides behind British and american military equipment, Any ITF solder who comes to UK needs arrested and put on trial for genocide The world is waking up people r sick of Israel aggression and mass ethnic cleansing and land grabbing yet polictions just say a few words like fart in the wind When the man said on tv said the ITF will leave no stone unturned in Gaza and their will flatten Gaza. really shows what their r, Need to be made to be held accountable for their despicable crimes Imagine if this was Russia bombing eastern Ukraine like this, 1st you make them leave their homes their land i.e GAZA 70 percent of the population is from areas now called Sderot and Ashkelon, Israel citys today Where will Israel stop the eradication of Palestine, Then where in the middle east is safe next from these terrorist's
  31. 2 points
    Victoria winter wonder land http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/its-a-winter-wonderland-snow-falls-in-ballarat-lorne-mt-macedon-as-victoria-shivers-through-winter-blast/story-fni0fit3-1227008140006
  32. 2 points
    Scores now in and a lot of people were close for July with 3 of the 61 competitors within 0.5c. With 7 getting it spot on. nn2013, March Blizzard, hillbilly, stewfox, TonyH, Don, jonboy Well done to each of these. In the Seasonal comp, 2 players were .1c out last month, and spot on this month, stewfox and Don, so understandably very close for both. Dancer with wings is 3rd not far behind. Overall, no change in first Reef and 2nd The PIT with Don up to 3rd. Scores PDF July 2014 CET.pdf XLS July 2014 CET.xls
  33. 2 points
    If this is potentially that serious of a threat, would it not be sensible to ban all air travel to and from the infected areas, with those arriving back into Europe etc being quarantined for the duration of the incubation period? No point in taking unnecessary chances with this particular virus if it's as potentially deadly as I've read it is? Confined to a finite smaller population then the virus would soon blow itself out. It may seem like a big call at present but if it stops a global catastrophe then so be it. No point fannying around until it's too late.
  34. 1 point
    The concensus is pretty much that global temperatures have been at or near record levels in April, May and June. In our little corner of the world the CET since the start of the year is the highest on record - but of course despite a notably mild winter, snow in parts of the Scottish highlands was possibly record breaking. Clearly warmer temperatures in the short term do not preclude some increases in ice and snow, which vice versa do not rule out warming.
  35. 1 point
    Yes,certainly worth watching,looks like model chaos ahoy.
  36. 1 point
  37. 1 point
    I did! Few rain showers, lots and lots of cloud around that has gradually broken up to leave a lovely evening, does feel more humid than of late though, hopefully no suprise storms tonight!!
  38. 1 point
    Lol 5 mins after typing that- lightning and thunder!
  39. 1 point
    Well that was a humdinger of a storm. Lasted around 15 mins but dropped a deluge on us ! Storm no 7 for us I think What a summer of storms ! John in Quedgeley, Gloucester
  40. 1 point
    If it follows the 700hpa or 500hpa winds then it will pretty much do that, but so far it has been heading slightly east of the winds at this level.
  41. 1 point
    yep we got some thing. Same site says its going to rain for the next half hour or so, poor village fete (we didn't go cos of the forecast, lol) said it would rain here because of that Like my status, we keep losing sky. o/
  42. 1 point
    just got in from morning work....nice looking Cb line to the back of the cold front moving through central England, very disturbed looking with mammatus.....I could hear sferics crackling on the van radio and presumed it was from the cold front, but looking at the radar they're coming from a trough over the south west
  43. 1 point
    I'm fairly well versed in the dark world which is the Labour party in Scotland but that's shocked me.
  44. 1 point
  45. 1 point
    Showery bursts of rain, sometimes heavy today
  46. 1 point
    Oh good grief no apology required at all (and there is certainly no competition implied by your post)...I was just pointing out that yes historically the SE has faired well with thunderstorms, though in recent years that really has not been the case at all...in fact I would say from 2007 through to 2012 storm coverage was very poor indeed (certainly compared to the 90s and early 00s). Geographically the SW is not ideally located for storms and that will always be the case - the two principle times the SW will bag storms are either southerly imports or a CZ. Given the limited land mass available for energy to build into decent thunderheads its no surprise thunder coverage tends to be disappointing. That said, in my experience some of the most enjoyable storms are CZ storms as they can often hang about for hours, be very intense, bring frequent lightning and funnels/weak tornados - flip side of that is of course they can lead to significant flooding, I'm sure Boscastle still fresh in the minds of many, not least the affected residents and tourists.
  47. 1 point
    You didn't offend anyone at all No worries. I think it's us in the SE, got tired of hearing that we had all the storms (as it's been a misconception over the last few years), when we have been storm starved. That's all.
  48. 1 point
    Morning everyone.......no problems this end for comments about the BBC (or any other of the media) as long as the comments directly relate to political discussion. This is a thread that naturally has emotions and passions running high especially with such an important vote for the future of Scotland coming up in the near future. There will therefore will plenty of polarized viewpoints depending on your place on the political spectrum All we ask our end, is to keep things friendly, and to take time in making posts as a presumably innocent comment by one member can be seen as an offensive comment to another especially if the comment is criticizing a fellow member's beliefs. ...and with that, please carry on with the debate....all the best
  49. 1 point
    Since when are Colin Jackson and Gabby Logan English?
  50. 1 point
    Hmmm Also, for Malta last year (red and white flag). Thing is, them doing a saltire blue and white job of some form would have put the union in a more favourable light if they wanted to promote it. Instead, it all looks petty, stupid and has micturated people off. How come I can understand this but people running the country can't? If I remember correctly, the trails were just white for the Scottish Parliament Opening in 1999; the white (clouds at the time) smoke on azure blue of the sky being the origin of the colours of the cross of St. Andrew. ----- EDIT The situation is this. If you want more petty crap like this, to keep on waking up to ‘Salmond accused’ headlines every day in newspapers not from your country. To be told you’ll be chucked out of the EU, have no currency, be ostracised by the international community, that you are racist, hate the English and watch Braveheart all the time…. That your country is too wee, too poor and too stupid to go it alone… vote No in September. Will ensure another good few years of this s***e day after day in addition to the fringe benefits of Tory rule etc. If you want it all to stop and things to become normal so that you can go about your daily lives like people in other countries can… vote for the party you support every 4-5 years or so and see them represented in government…vote Yes. This is at least 70 years in the making and has grown every year, from the national covenant in 1949, to the devolution referendums in 1979 then 1997, to the SNP governments in 2007 then to 2011, to the referendum in 8 weeks. The only way to end it all is a Yes vote. Then life returns to normal and if the red arrows fly past, it will be as a friendly gesture as for wee independent Malta (54.5% Yes to indy from Britain in 1964). In the meantime, watch a bit of the Commonwealth games to get an idea of what it's like to be a normal country that is part of the international community.
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