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Quite a spectacular showing in Birmingham this morningEasy to see how my parents could have made the mistake of thinking they were seeing the Northern lights as a regular occurence during the 1940/50slooking forward to this afternoons events....As an afternoon down the scrumpy hut kind of blurred yesterdays storms

New week, a new trend in the model outputs once again? I see the latest GEM offerings leading the way here with HP influence building strongly after mid-month. So often, this becomes the case in the UK especially in my memories from the nineties (that's 1990s for those not so sure). Some good analysis on here yesterday and today, keep it coming guys n gals. My attempt would read as this coming week, the early part of which sees us offered a couple of days of sunshine and showers, already a few potent ones down in Southern and Southwestern England in fact, already for instance. Wednesday looks the driest of the bunch for most and Thursday brings some potentially heavy bursts of rain into Eastern England. I'm speculating over mid-July as stated above but another burst of heat and the likelihood for nearby HP dominance over the UK can't be ruled out and I expect this trend to start showing up in the 8-10 day range on the GEFS spreads soon. As always, as stated by CS we shouldn't read too much into 6z runs and not jump on every individual run even if it is fun doing so. I await the 12zs with much interest. Some intriguing synoptics upcoming.

The 12z's still bring no clarity for D5 onwards. GFS is now showing what ECM was hinting at before today and ECM is showing what GFS was charting lately. We know that there is a stalling upper low and models still haven't agreed on its situ. ECM stalls the LP over the NW of the UK from D5-D9: GEM stalls it over Iceland: Close to the GFS: JMA in the Atlantic: Navgem keeps higher pressure later this week: GEFS mean closer to the JMA: The Chinese model was suggesting strong positive height anomaly in our locale for mid month for some days (5-10) and GFS op and Control now running with this from around D9: The Azores finally gaining some ground. By T324: Though both the op and control are currently leading their members and are probably outliers for a sustained pressure rise: But the D10 ECM has the Azores displaced with a UK trough close at hand: GEM now showing a brief transient ridge before a UK trough at D10: Today's UKMO update for week 2 is more in keeping with the GFS: "Warmer to the southeast and very warm at times over some central, eastern and southern parts of England. These conditions look likely to persist for the rest of the period." I am no wiser this evening though the GFS pressure build from around D8 with maybe a N/S split, not as strong as the GFS op, could be my very slight favourite. However as Thursday's battle re the frontal rain is yet to be resolved I shall wait a few more runs.

yesterday Sun6th Grampian, I was under this TS, lovely evening show https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/20035-ts-grampian-sun6th/ reported not too far away http://insidemoray.co.uk/tornado-of-a-very-different-kind-spotted-over-moray-firth/

Greenhouse gases, methane, nitrogen, water vapour , ozone and of course carbon dioxide, all contribute naturally to warming our planet by about 33c. So, here you acknowledge that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and has contributed to warming. But we have since the industrial revolution at around 1750, spewed out vast amounts of CO2 by the burning of fossil fuels. Here you acknowledge that we have caused an increase in CO2, which you previously acknowledged in a greenhouse gas, capable of causing warming. My point is why on earth is the main culprit C02 held responsible for the main reason the earth has warmed when there is a a big increase in sea ice around the globe. If C02 was such a great warmer why is this happening... We have been burning fossil fuels now for well over 250 years, plenty of time for C02 to prove itself a warmer But, you don't really believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas, because global sea ice cover has been above average for a short while (despite the long term trend being downward, and despite sea ice volume still being below average)? Does that mean that you don't accept that the world has warmed over the last 150 years? That sea levels have risen? That the ice sheets have been melting? That glaciers have been retreating? That plants and animals have been shifting north? That oceans have been accumulating heat? Or any other number of things that clearly demonstrate that the world is warming? If global sea ice cover goes below average next month, does that prove that CO2 is a GHG and the world is warming? Or should we perhaps look at more than just short term fluctuations in sea ice?

Posted this on the Scottish regional thread yesterday, thought I would share it here. My first live twister !!!!! Yesterdays storm over Dundee 6/7/14 about 12:15pm ....... The storm then passed directly overhead and I shot this wee video

Arctic sea ice is in a terrible state. Antarctic sea ice is holding up well and even increasing due to feedback effects as a consequence of warming, the processes that would usually inhibit sea ice growth in that region are being inhibited themselves due to changing ocean circulations thanks to increasing temperatures. This process will not continue indefinitely. I don't want to sound disrespectful, but please read up a bit on the science on the various aspects and impacts of climate change, your opinion may change. CO2 IS a greenhouse gas. That is undeniable fact. By refusing to acknowledge this virtually invalidates your post.

Marginal chance of thunderstorms today with weak mid level lapse rates, which means cloud tops are likely to be limited.Forecast Skewt's suggest up until mid afternoon for most areas a Cap exists at 500hPa. In addition lightning wizard level of free convection charts suggest limited lift apart from some southern counties late afternoon. Wind convergence aloft for the most part will not help either. Showers/Storms seem likely to initiate along low level wind convergence boudaries where moisture pools possibly aided by orographic lifting and definately in response to diurnal heating. NMM charts suggest some vorticity approaches from the south west during the day and another sliver moving up through the eastern central part of the UK from the south. There is some wind speed shear through mid levels and some marked directional shear in the 925hpa to 850hpa region particularly towards the west. Some possibility of very weak convergence type tornadoes and updraft downdraft seperation due to shear aloft, but directional shear seems at the wrong level for super cell development. There is a sliver of drier air at 500hpa which could enhance convection from the isle of wight to lincolnshire. Key area to watch in my view would be somewhere from around Glastonbury through to Reading and perhaps as far as London particularly places just north of London.

Last nights spectacular showing of Noctilucent clouds from BirminghamFull unedited coverage from this mornings stream (timelapse to come )

Yes a great display last night, perhaps even better than last year. Got the camera out this time, some photos:

<its still advisable, just for the time being, to exercise caution as to the extent of inrodes of any ridging eastwards in the much longer term> <The signal for the main upper High to be maintained in the central/western atlantic and a corresponding intermittent returning downstream trough is a stubborn one, and only further FI modelling tools advertise hints of a change> <Cautious signs though, just perhaps, that this signal may fade somewhat, with a change as we head through towards the end of the second week of July with more settled conditions trying to extend further into the UK from the SW and the jetstream edging a little further north as we approach midmonth> Extracts taken from previous update a week back The large scale pattern, which has been very cyclical in nature persists at least for the timebeing. We have been seeing, and continue to see fascinating permutations of the atlantic high and downstream trough larger scale atlantic, UK and European pattern. In terms of what this means for the UK - well, upstream jet patterns are determining whether individual lows get cut off, stall, and then allow a further downstream ridge to develop or whether the jet stream is less sinuous (flatter) and simply phases with the previous trough ejected eastwards into Europe. The amplifying and de-amplifying of the retracted Azores High playing its part in determining how far south the downstream troughs dig towards/over the UK and whether renewed upstream jet pulses eject these phases of troughing eastwards quickly or not. The former cut-off solution is the one that we have seen earlier in the summer back in June which led to a plume scenario. Since this time we have seen the other permutation that has led to a flatter pattern with the UK ensconced on the 'cooler' side of the trough. We have then seen a third permutation of this overall large scale pattern in the last week or so whereby a downstream ridge from the main upper high in the atlantic has been able to hold in place a day or two longer, especially over southern UK, to allow some pleasant and warm, but not unduly hot summer weather In the short term we see todays cold front struggling to exit the SE with a maritime atlantic airstream behind it that is giving rise to the showery conditions of today and the next couple of days. Meanwhile hot and humid conditions prevail and are set to continue to prevail as one heads not too far from the Low Countries into Germany and central europe as a whole. This heat successfully advected as far north into Scandinavia. It is the boundary of these two different airmasses which grinds to a halt towards central Europe and re-invigorates the troughing just to our east towards mid week and provides the rain risk to eastern most counties on the 'cool' side of the trough boundary. This boundary of airmasses in tandem with the upstream advancing jet pattern is what has been causing the model headaches in terms of how the continental heat low phases with upstream trough disruption - or, whether the upstream trough stays in disconnect as it slows to our NW. So, with that in mind we return to the solution options mentioned higher up this post. The models continue to try to calculate which of these solutions will determine the further outlook. The odds currently, as correctly observed by a few members this morning are edging towards the cut-off scenario whereby the trough to our east can escape away from its mid week influence over eastern UK and the next one can approach from the NW and take advantage of a pause in the jetstream and slow down - which subsequenrly enables sub tropical ridging to head somehat north and bring some of the southern and central european heat the way of the UK. As bluearmy observes, the question is how far north, and for how long such a potential 'plume' may advect north. Any possible larger scale sea change to more settled conditions mentioned in the previous post update remains rather a mute question. The toying of the models with the possible split in the jet stream and a little more energy heading north with energy transport towards the pole, does give sub tropical mid latitude ridging more room to escape from the shackles of the more amplified western displaced High pressure anomaly - and thus displace low pressure further north west. However, it remains questionable how long the background cyclical signal will allow this beyond another eastward moving ridge scenario that might follow after midmonth and bring heat northwards before shunting it eastwards again. So despite such hints of something quite a lot warmer, we may be looking simply at the prospect of a 'southerly toppler'. There still remains something of a disconnect between atmospheric and oceanic signals (latter El Nino) that determines any movement towards anything more sustained in terms of classic summer weather. But with changing wavelengths as we approach the heart of the middle of the summer it does pose questions as to how the atmosphere is going to respond in the few weeks ahead and whether a classic summer pattern can evolve to follow a (possible) thundery breakdown of any mid month toppling plume - or whether the s.q re-asserts itself. It is certainly and increasingly conceivable that something of a very warm spell could evolve from mid month. For now though, a NW/SE split seems most likely following the passage of this week and next weekends weather rather than any extensive UK wide very warm spell. However, temperatures everywhere eventually look to become at least a little above average

virtual prize to anyone spotting the T72 FAX error . looking ahead into week 2 and thicknesses seem to be progged quite high so whatever the surface conditions, it will likely feel v warm/hot in any settled spells and humid in damp periods. the chances of the plume seem to have been pushed a tad to our se but with retrogression remaining a player, the atlantic trough could edge further west or dig further south, both of which would encourage that plume closer to the uk.

Posted this on the Scottish regional thread yesterday, thought I would share it here. My first live twister !!!!! Yesterdays storm over Dundee 6/7/14 about 12:15pm ....... Then the storm moved directly overhead and I took this wee video ...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPLB8qM1hwc

Today's timelapse

ahh, that was actually me, my phone signed me in through facebook??? Anyways, I'm not worried about me name being on here, it's not as if I've annoyed anyone recently, is it? :-D

This is around 2:45am when they started emerging, looked really otherwordly

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-07-07 09:01:45 Valid: 07/07/2014 0900z to 08/07/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Slow-moving upper trough extends south from Iceland across the UK/Ireland towards Iberia/western Mediterranean today, while a ridge of high pressure extends north across eastern Europe and Scandinavia. An area of surface low pressure will be centred across the far NW of the UK, with an unstable SW flow across the UK. ... UK and IRELAND ... Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning in the W and NW will gradually develop elsewhere by early afternoon, as surface heating in the strong July sunshine beneath cool mid level temperatures of the upper trough allows cumulonimbus clouds to develop. So heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across many areas inland, away from the far SE of England. Weak vertical wind shear will mean organised severe weather is unlikely, though breeze convergence zone(s) may set up inland across SW England, Midlands and N England - which may focus thunderstorms activity, with a threat of locally torrential downpours, perhaps bringing rainfall rates of 25mm (1") per hour, which may lead to localised flooding and standing water on roads. Storms maybe accompanied by hail and gusty winds too, Storms should fade by late evening, as diurnal heating wanes. Issued by: Nick Finnis Full forecast here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

The ice sheets, icecaps and glaciers of the Arctic contain just over 3 million km3 of ice, the bulk of which is locked into the Greenland Ice Sheet, with the remainder being in the icecaps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic, Iceland, Svalbard, Alaska, Franz Josef Land, northern Scandinavia, Severnaya Zemlya and Novaya Zemlya. Using your scientific knowledge, given say a 2C rise in temperature, howl long would it take for this area to become ice free? And this is ignoring Antarctica. And you are avoiding PeteGs point. How come the planet is a liveable 15C and not -18C. The importance of CO2 as a warming agent isn't because it has failed to melt the ice sheets in 150 years, which is ludicrous anyway, but because it's vital for life on earth as we know it.

Well lots of variety in the week 2 range again this morning. But before then we will see a fairly decent week to be honest. Temperatures look around average for many apart from the north east on Thursday where there could be some rain. By Friday temperatures look to be on the up again. Mid-high twenties would be quite likely under 850s of 8-12. Would be fairly humid too with some showers around. The weekend is when the models start to deviate as the models toy with different evolutions. The GFS now wants to cut the low off and drift it towards the Bay of Biscay, ECM wants to push the low towards the UK bringing more unsettled conditions, if still fairly warm. The UKMO and GEM are similar in not wanting to cut the low off and instead want t build the Azores high in from the south west. GEM in week 2 looks hot and sunny with high pressure just east of the UK. GEM ECM GFS

Another storm I got today Sped up video of the clouds, and some thunder rumbles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxyfj405jqQ

Yep, that shows a downward trend. As does other data. Something tells me that slight, recent upward trend in Antarctic sea ice cover hasn't managed to counteract this Nope, we know it's not natural variation. I refer you to post 2608 from this thread. Marginal sea level rise? Interesting that you don't question the obviously false claims by anyweather. Anyway, I don't think this is the right thread for your "scepticism".

I gave up BA and looked for something easier...http://www.holmesdale.net/images/features/where'skember.gif CPC 8-14 dayer has the trough to the west of the UK,although uncomfortably close. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

nothing new there then !!!.....

Last post but I have to moan about this posting restriction in the hope that others might help to show the team that it is now time to ease the 'punishment'. up thread I used an Edit to link into the study that Knocks has just posted above as it is the only way at my disposal to bring such news to the group ( once my allotment has run out) . some days I start the day with only one post left until the evening if I have engaged in other threads the previous evening ( Arthur being one, Tour de france another... all areas where I have never received warnings or had posts removed) Why can I not 'free post' across the forum and just remain restricted here? Arctic melt Season and Antarctic re-freeze are both busy topics this time of year before we even get into the glut of papers that surface at the end of the academic year!!!! If you feel this treatment has now long outlived its original purpose and you would feel as I do had you suffered similar then please ask your mod to look into the issue for me. I now have to wait until 21:23 to reply to anything as I'm out of 'edits' to slip replies in!!!!

Perhaps the eyewall replacement cycle has allowed some dry air in from the western side? I know that dry air slowed strengthening of Neoguri a couple of days ago.

Haha I was jesting of course, I'm very much for Scotland to say YES! It's turned into a OK day, which is little consolation as I'm spending it watching daytime TV.

If things go as they are shown now we could see some warm air coming in from the east once the rain clears away during Thursday Could still be some heavy showers or some longer spells of rain some of which could be thundery and feeling quite humid at times too given the heat

Indeed, an EWRC is occuring and winds have fallen to 130kts. Once the EWRC is complete, Neoguri still has some time to strengthen as it passes Okinawa then slams into SW Japan. JTWC still expect Neoguri to become a cat 5 with winds of 140kts. Whether it makes it or not remains to be seen but it's already come very close!

Nice photos Arnie! Yes they do look like the northern lights! Your display was better than the one I had! Clouded over here now, but no showers!

Neoguri seems to have started an eyewall replacement cycle, as cloud tops have warmed considerably. According to the JTWC's latest advisory, sustained windspeeds are at 135kts (155mph), just shy of category 5 on the SS scale, but looking at it on satellite, it seems that the eyewall replacement has weakened it. The JTWC did predict Neoguri to maintain Category 5 status until Wednesday, so it is entirely possible that the eyewall replacement cycle wil have finished by then and allow time for re intensification before landfall. Even if this doesn't happen, the storm surge and rain will still be a very large problem.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/long_valley/long_valley_monitoring_1.html Long valley caldera Swarm ongoing at present

just leaving for a trip up to Great Malvern to see the in-laws.......but on the bright side, might get to see a storm today!

The main question is are the models trying to cut a low off which will never actually happen? Don't buy this solution and think most of any troughing will stick towards Iceland with limited impact over the UK. How great an influence high pressure will have is another question but the Azores/Scandi anticyclones do seem to be squeezing most of the life out of any troughing near us after mid-week. GFS going this way in the 06z This would provide an interesting weekend with temperatures widely into the mid-twenties along with enough instability to develop widespread showers and thunderstorms. GFS then looks like following a solution similar to this mornings GEM and last nights ECM in building pressure through the UK. Definitely would take the 06z run with FI turning hot, shame it's that run to be honest By the way, nice ECM mean and the evolution looks more or less how I think it will go, though there is probably a good chance that it is too amplified and a flatter pattern which pushing cooler and wetter conditions to the north west is probably more likely.

Uncertainty prevails for D4 onwards. The pressure spread on the GEFS highlight this: Looking at the GEFS precipitations graph^^^ the best we can say is that there is no sustained settled period for the next two weeks and the changeable pattern continues. GFS op and control for three runs have now produced a flat westerly FI pattern (N/S split). D10 GEFS mean: ECM is more amplified (not unexpected): The GEFS may simply be a default response whilst it waits for a clear signal. Bearing in mind ECM D10 charts have swung run to run; last night's Scandi High has disappeared, there does seem to be inter model as well as cross model disparity. ECM D5 clusters show a large spread with six clusters, interestingly the op and control are in the lowest cluster: HERE So next four days average temps (slightly higher south) with showers tomorrow and possible frontal rain in the east Thursday. Afterwards anybodies guess, for example yesterday's update from the Chinese for 16th onwards for 10 days:

You see , to me . here we go again! Anyweather's post appears typical of one of the type that have me wondering if a portion of the folk who are actively 'denying', both the changes and the science, are doing so out of fear of what they are being told? I'd outlined in a post above what I personally feel is going on and so would expect nothing more than trouble and bother should I try and straighten some of the misconceptions he appears to hold about the issues? ( just a comparison of the mass of ice lost each year across Antarctica with the mass of annual 'extension' to the sea 2m thick sea ice we have been seeing since the 80's). And this then ties in with what I warned o above about the 'tactics' in play by the group aligned to the climate misleaders where they deliberately provoke response with ridiculous claims but make the spat so uncomfortable as to make many 'normal' folk reluctant to enter into the fray? From the outside an observer sees nothing more than a 'to do' and anything to do with the science and the facts is lost among the ugliness. I would ask the 'non combatants' to look at the data on the massive Antarctic land ice losses ( that is ice lost to the planet) compared to the annual increase in sections of the Sea ice around the Antarctic and decide which is the more important? We have heard ( and continue to hear?) about the 33rd coolest winter in America yet very little about one of the warmest Arctic winters on record..... which of these is of most importance to us all ? Yet which have you personally heard most about ( and from where and for why?). The information is out there folks, please do not wait for it to come to you as the folk most active in pushing the impacts of climate change are those attacking it ( with the help of the paid misleaders media outlets /connections).

Early hours of Friday morning gave a display in the NNE sky. First spotted at 2.30am but pictures came out completely black until these a while later 03.21am 03.27am

heh, i'm always here... Moaning

There was indeed thunder near Leicester, to the west and North. I travelled down the M1 through the 7.30 storm, arriving in Northants for the 8.30 one!! Did someone mention rainbow, I chased this bugger down the M1, onto the A5 and gave up just south of Weedon, couldn't catch it......

Here's one of the storms I got today. And here's the video of the storm. Although it is fairly distant, there is some great thunder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgy9I5-3cP4

There was an amazing display this morning around 3am, the first time in a while Ive seen them here due to constant easterly winds and cloudcover!

Great weekend with hardly any sleep... Now I'm tired, I cannot sleep. 11.3C much fresher than of late. Here's a few pics I took on my phone last night My friend did a couple of hours fishing during a beach party, he caught a 4lb dogfish. Although I would have put it back, he coshed it, gutted it, then put it on BBQ. Everyone had a taste of rock salmon.

A better pic of the twister over Dundee today... unfortunately not mine ...

A nice end to the day.

Low resolution but its about the time you see the -10 isotherm reappear.

I like the extremes. The lingering twilight and the noctilucent clouds of June and the long shadows that are cast in December.

My views, for what they are worth, I like the casual feel of the regionals and while they weren't around for a day, wasn't quite sure where to go and certainly felt there was nowhere suitable for me to post. The vast majority of my 600+ posts are in the regionals as it's the only place I feel comfortable posting, which equals less participation for me personally when they are not around. In common with many others, I have nothing to contribute in the MDT due to no weather knowledge at all, although I visit it several times a week. I thought about the general weather chat thread, but as members of the SE thread may have noticed, I tend to add something to my weather reports, be that some pics, a comment on the drive to or from work, etc. I could change my behaviour but this would reduce how frequently I post substantially. I like a community where people can contribute weather and the odd bit about their lives if they wish. Being in the SE thread, I am well aware this can lead to some difficulties and trolling behaviour, and I would not want to think that the well-behaved majority end up paying for the bad behaviour of the minority (and believe me, most of us know who they are). Finding a relaxed place to read and post is why I like regionals as they have evolved. I would seek out something the same if they were not around, or not post. Frankly, I was less concerned with my posting and more concerned about the loss of some of our great regional posters, in particular JP and Tamara, but also Perfect Storm, Captain Shortwave, Miguel and the like of our younger members plus a few others. They post deliberately in the regional thread with the regional thread audience in mind. Re: for example, JP's daily updates, where would they appear? I would also miss the regulars - you know who you are - many of whom truly embody the positive spirit of the regionals very well. Finally, I wonder how this may impact site traffic. Without the regionals, I won't visit other threads as a direct substitute, I will simply visit the site less and for a shorter amount of time. Therefore keeping some form of informal posting area is important, IMHO, even in a bigger geographical area, as per Paul's earlier guidelines (which are helpful), as this will keep the non-weather expert/those less weather focused, somewhere to feel at home. Of course this is a private company, however part of its market position is inevitably derived from the strength, dynamism and competence of the community, who inevitably in return feel some sense of ownership of Netweather. This is why this type of discussion/consultation with stakeholders is so important, and so is keeping the regional threads in some form or another, outside of the 'extreme' weather episodes.

Sorry Paul, I have to disagree with this (at least in the SE thread) We've had recent members, such as Piggie Palace, who have posted, concerning their issues about flooding and how much it'd mess up their lives. Our community has really rallied around their cause and we certainly didn't wish for flooding rains to affect them, no matter the meteorological spectacle. I really think you guys might be making a mistake.

not sure i agree with this been doing the local fax updates for the south east for ages not going into the mod thread or the storm thread as would be accused of imby posts i think the south east thread is quieter than normal but certainly not dead a shame this was done so sudden but its your site i suppose anyway i may be back in the winter john

Yes, I must have been sleeping facing the window as I was woken by a bright flash, and immediately thought 'Lightning' so I readied myself for the thunder, which seemed to be very strong and go on for ages. I think I am still alarmed by thunder that wakes me, a throwback to childhood. But this was OK, and I got up to look out the window but saw nothing, except all was very still. I went back to sleep and didn't hear any hail or rainfall. Although ice is still sitting on ground in patches, in the shade, even now. Bright and sunny here, which is nice. Hope it dries out a little!

Just had a huge 20 minute hail shower here, temp has dropped from 8.7c to 4.4c