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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/07/14 in all areas

  1. Quite a spectacular showing in Birmingham this morningEasy to see how my parents could have made the mistake of thinking they were seeing the Northern lights as a regular occurence during the 1940/50slooking forward to this afternoons events....As an afternoon down the scrumpy hut kind of blurred yesterdays storms
    8 points
  2. New week, a new trend in the model outputs once again? I see the latest GEM offerings leading the way here with HP influence building strongly after mid-month. So often, this becomes the case in the UK especially in my memories from the nineties (that's 1990s for those not so sure). Some good analysis on here yesterday and today, keep it coming guys n gals. My attempt would read as this coming week, the early part of which sees us offered a couple of days of sunshine and showers, already a few potent ones down in Southern and Southwestern England in fact, already for instance. Wednesday look
    8 points
  3. The 12z's still bring no clarity for D5 onwards. GFS is now showing what ECM was hinting at before today and ECM is showing what GFS was charting lately. We know that there is a stalling upper low and models still haven't agreed on its situ. ECM stalls the LP over the NW of the UK from D5-D9: GEM stalls it over Iceland: Close to the GFS: JMA in the Atlantic: Navgem keeps higher pressure later this week: GEFS mean closer to the JMA: The Chinese model was suggesting strong positive height anomaly in our locale for mid month for some days (5-10) and GFS op and Control
    6 points
  4. yesterday Sun6th Grampian, I was under this TS, lovely evening show https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/20035-ts-grampian-sun6th/ reported not too far away http://insidemoray.co.uk/tornado-of-a-very-different-kind-spotted-over-moray-firth/
    6 points
  5. Greenhouse gases, methane, nitrogen, water vapour , ozone and of course carbon dioxide, all contribute naturally to warming our planet by about 33c. So, here you acknowledge that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and has contributed to warming. But we have since the industrial revolution at around 1750, spewed out vast amounts of CO2 by the burning of fossil fuels. Here you acknowledge that we have caused an increase in CO2, which you previously acknowledged in a greenhouse gas, capable of causing warming. My point is why on earth is the main culprit C02 held responsible for the main r
    5 points
  6. Posted this on the Scottish regional thread yesterday, thought I would share it here. My first live twister !!!!! Yesterdays storm over Dundee 6/7/14 about 12:15pm ....... The storm then passed directly overhead and I shot this wee video
    5 points
  7. Arctic sea ice is in a terrible state. Antarctic sea ice is holding up well and even increasing due to feedback effects as a consequence of warming, the processes that would usually inhibit sea ice growth in that region are being inhibited themselves due to changing ocean circulations thanks to increasing temperatures. This process will not continue indefinitely. I don't want to sound disrespectful, but please read up a bit on the science on the various aspects and impacts of climate change, your opinion may change. CO2 IS a greenhouse gas. That is undeniable fact. By refusing to ackno
    5 points
  8. Marginal chance of thunderstorms today with weak mid level lapse rates, which means cloud tops are likely to be limited.Forecast Skewt's suggest up until mid afternoon for most areas a Cap exists at 500hPa. In addition lightning wizard level of free convection charts suggest limited lift apart from some southern counties late afternoon. Wind convergence aloft for the most part will not help either. Showers/Storms seem likely to initiate along low level wind convergence boudaries where moisture pools possibly aided by orographic lifting and definately in response to diurnal heating. NMM chart
    5 points
  9. Last nights spectacular showing of Noctilucent clouds from BirminghamFull unedited coverage from this mornings stream (timelapse to come )
    4 points
  10. Yes a great display last night, perhaps even better than last year. Got the camera out this time, some photos:
    4 points
  11. <its still advisable, just for the time being, to exercise caution as to the extent of inrodes of any ridging eastwards in the much longer term> <The signal for the main upper High to be maintained in the central/western atlantic and a corresponding intermittent returning downstream trough is a stubborn one, and only further FI modelling tools advertise hints of a change> <Cautious signs though, just perhaps, that this signal may fade somewhat, with a change as we head through towards the end of the second week of July with more settled conditions trying to extend furthe
    4 points
  12. virtual prize to anyone spotting the T72 FAX error . looking ahead into week 2 and thicknesses seem to be progged quite high so whatever the surface conditions, it will likely feel v warm/hot in any settled spells and humid in damp periods. the chances of the plume seem to have been pushed a tad to our se but with retrogression remaining a player, the atlantic trough could edge further west or dig further south, both of which would encourage that plume closer to the uk.
    3 points
  13. Posted this on the Scottish regional thread yesterday, thought I would share it here. My first live twister !!!!! Yesterdays storm over Dundee 6/7/14 about 12:15pm ....... Then the storm moved directly overhead and I took this wee video ...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPLB8qM1hwc
    3 points
  14. ahh, that was actually me, my phone signed me in through facebook??? Anyways, I'm not worried about me name being on here, it's not as if I've annoyed anyone recently, is it? :-D
    3 points
  15. This is around 2:45am when they started emerging, looked really otherwordly
    3 points
  16. I really think it's foolish to count on a 2011 result repeating itself.
    3 points
  17. I'm puzzled, the polls look far better for Yes than they did for the SNP in the same timeframe with respect to 2011. As far as that TNS goes, Yes just shot up to reach a new all time high and that was last month. Taking into account all polls, even those which we know are wrong (Yougov), the gap is just 10 points needing a 5% swing excluding DK. That's less than 1 in 20 people switching sides. In contrast, ahead of 2011, Labour were over 15 points ahead at around the same time, with the SNP taking a small lead just 36 days beforehand. That was entirely down to a large section o
    3 points
  18. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-07-07 09:01:45 Valid: 07/07/2014 0900z to 08/07/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Slow-moving upper trough extends south from Iceland across the UK/Ireland towards Iberia/western Mediterranean today, while a ridge of high pressure extends north across eastern Europe and Scandinavia. An area of surface low pressure will be centred across the far NW of the UK, with an unstable SW flow across the UK. ... UK and IRELAND ... Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning in the W and NW will gradual
    3 points
  19. The ice sheets, icecaps and glaciers of the Arctic contain just over 3 million km3 of ice, the bulk of which is locked into the Greenland Ice Sheet, with the remainder being in the icecaps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic, Iceland, Svalbard, Alaska, Franz Josef Land, northern Scandinavia, Severnaya Zemlya and Novaya Zemlya. Using your scientific knowledge, given say a 2C rise in temperature, howl long would it take for this area to become ice free? And this is ignoring Antarctica. And you are avoiding PeteGs point. How come the planet is a liveable 15C and not -18C. The importance of CO
    3 points
  20. Well lots of variety in the week 2 range again this morning. But before then we will see a fairly decent week to be honest. Temperatures look around average for many apart from the north east on Thursday where there could be some rain. By Friday temperatures look to be on the up again. Mid-high twenties would be quite likely under 850s of 8-12. Would be fairly humid too with some showers around. The weekend is when the models start to deviate as the models toy with different evolutions. The GFS now wants to cut the low off and drift it towards the Bay of Biscay, ECM wants to push the l
    3 points
  21. Well, I've posted them all over Twitter numerous times - so thought it's about time I showed you all here the kittens. 2 were born between 3-7am, then another 2 were born just after 11pm. Sadly one died a day afterwards, but the other three are all healthy and noisy. 19th June 2014 23rd June 2014 27th June 2014 30th June 2014 3rd July 2014
    3 points
  22. Another storm I got today Sped up video of the clouds, and some thunder rumbles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxyfj405jqQ
    3 points
  23. Yep, that shows a downward trend. As does other data. Something tells me that slight, recent upward trend in Antarctic sea ice cover hasn't managed to counteract this Nope, we know it's not natural variation. I refer you to post 2608 from this thread. Marginal sea level rise? Interesting that you don't question the obviously false claims by anyweather. Anyway, I don't think this is the right thread for your "scepticism".
    2 points
  24. *puts glasses on* Ooo you could be right.... ouchy bit itchy surely
    2 points
  25. I gave up BA and looked for something easier...http://www.holmesdale.net/images/features/where'skember.gif CPC 8-14 dayer has the trough to the west of the UK,although uncomfortably close. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
    2 points
  26. 2 points
  27. Last post but I have to moan about this posting restriction in the hope that others might help to show the team that it is now time to ease the 'punishment'. up thread I used an Edit to link into the study that Knocks has just posted above as it is the only way at my disposal to bring such news to the group ( once my allotment has run out) . some days I start the day with only one post left until the evening if I have engaged in other threads the previous evening ( Arthur being one, Tour de france another... all areas where I have never received warnings or had posts removed) Why can I not
    2 points
  28. Perhaps the eyewall replacement cycle has allowed some dry air in from the western side? I know that dry air slowed strengthening of Neoguri a couple of days ago.
    2 points
  29. Haha I was jesting of course, I'm very much for Scotland to say YES! It's turned into a OK day, which is little consolation as I'm spending it watching daytime TV.
    2 points
  30. If things go as they are shown now we could see some warm air coming in from the east once the rain clears away during Thursday Could still be some heavy showers or some longer spells of rain some of which could be thundery and feeling quite humid at times too given the heat
    2 points
  31. Can we haggle? What about separating but sharing London's weather?
    2 points
  32. Indeed, an EWRC is occuring and winds have fallen to 130kts. Once the EWRC is complete, Neoguri still has some time to strengthen as it passes Okinawa then slams into SW Japan. JTWC still expect Neoguri to become a cat 5 with winds of 140kts. Whether it makes it or not remains to be seen but it's already come very close!
    2 points
  33. Nice photos Arnie! Yes they do look like the northern lights! Your display was better than the one I had! Clouded over here now, but no showers!
    2 points
  34. Neoguri seems to have started an eyewall replacement cycle, as cloud tops have warmed considerably. According to the JTWC's latest advisory, sustained windspeeds are at 135kts (155mph), just shy of category 5 on the SS scale, but looking at it on satellite, it seems that the eyewall replacement has weakened it. The JTWC did predict Neoguri to maintain Category 5 status until Wednesday, so it is entirely possible that the eyewall replacement cycle wil have finished by then and allow time for re intensification before landfall. Even if this doesn't happen, the storm surge and rain will still b
    2 points
  35. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/long_valley/long_valley_monitoring_1.html Long valley caldera Swarm ongoing at present
    2 points
  36. just leaving for a trip up to Great Malvern to see the in-laws.......but on the bright side, might get to see a storm today!
    2 points
  37. The main question is are the models trying to cut a low off which will never actually happen? Don't buy this solution and think most of any troughing will stick towards Iceland with limited impact over the UK. How great an influence high pressure will have is another question but the Azores/Scandi anticyclones do seem to be squeezing most of the life out of any troughing near us after mid-week. GFS going this way in the 06z This would provide an interesting weekend with temperatures widely into the mid-twenties along with enough instability to develop widespread showers and thunderstorm
    2 points
  38. Uncertainty prevails for D4 onwards. The pressure spread on the GEFS highlight this: Looking at the GEFS precipitations graph^^^ the best we can say is that there is no sustained settled period for the next two weeks and the changeable pattern continues. GFS op and control for three runs have now produced a flat westerly FI pattern (N/S split). D10 GEFS mean: ECM is more amplified (not unexpected): The GEFS may simply be a default response whilst it waits for a clear signal. Bearing in mind ECM D10 charts have swung run to run; last night's Scandi High has disappeared, there do
    2 points
  39. You see , to me . here we go again! Anyweather's post appears typical of one of the type that have me wondering if a portion of the folk who are actively 'denying', both the changes and the science, are doing so out of fear of what they are being told? I'd outlined in a post above what I personally feel is going on and so would expect nothing more than trouble and bother should I try and straighten some of the misconceptions he appears to hold about the issues? ( just a comparison of the mass of ice lost each year across Antarctica with the mass of annual 'extension' to the sea 2m thick
    2 points
  40. Early hours of Friday morning gave a display in the NNE sky. First spotted at 2.30am but pictures came out completely black until these a while later 03.21am 03.27am
    2 points
  41. There was indeed thunder near Leicester, to the west and North. I travelled down the M1 through the 7.30 storm, arriving in Northants for the 8.30 one!! Did someone mention rainbow, I chased this bugger down the M1, onto the A5 and gave up just south of Weedon, couldn't catch it......
    2 points
  42. Here's one of the storms I got today. And here's the video of the storm. Although it is fairly distant, there is some great thunder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgy9I5-3cP4
    2 points
  43. 1 point
  44. shower #3 on way. I thought I would have been too far "sarth" to have been on todays conveyor belt. Probably end up with diddly tomorrow, as I was under the impression that shower activity is going to be more wide spread.
    1 point
  45. Even though the temps are now in the low 20's, it still feels warm indoors!
    1 point
  46. Two TV programmes on tonight of interest re. The Vote .. Dispatches, 'The Great British Break-up?' investigating claims of dubious tactics and misinformation on the campaign trail. That is on Ch. 4 at 8pm. At 9pm over on BBC 2 Robert Peston looks at the financial implications of independence. 'Scotland For Richer or Poorer'. Guessing these will be on at the same times north of the border. (?) B.
    1 point
  47. A better pic of the twister over Dundee today... unfortunately not mine ...
    1 point
  48. I like the extremes. The lingering twilight and the noctilucent clouds of June and the long shadows that are cast in December.
    1 point
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