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Showing most liked content on 01/07/14 in all areas

  1. 18 likes
    First big post so be nice.... Tomorrow is looking dry, sunny and warm UK wide with temperatures reaching the low twenties, maybe the mid twenties in the warmer spots. There is a chance of a few showers breaking out through the spine of the country, maybe affecting play at Wimbledon but not as bad as the past couple of days. Wednesday brings a change with a weatherfront, associated with a deep area of low pressure to the northwest, brings increasing cloud, rain and strong winds to the NNW of the UK. Further south, its opposite fortunes with the sun out and temperatures rising further to 24/25C, with the odd isolated shower around. By Thursday the low has travelled towards the UK, so the front has progressed South to introduce the cooler, damper weather to Northern England, Midlands, North Wales etc. But the Southeast still basking in hot sunshine with temperatures reaching 26C, maybe 27C around London. On Friday, the low throws yet more rain into the UK, the heaviest of which always further North and West. Temperatures very poor across Scotland with the low-mid teens at best but England always warmer and the Southeast on top as always with one more day of hot sunshine. Whatever the weather, Andy Murray will not disappoint!!
  2. 4 likes
    The outlook is dire, if you're looking for a continuation of summer, and leaning more towards a low pressure, below average temperatures and very wet scenario as it stands. I'd be very surprised if this changed in the next 3 days but it is possible it could backtrack towards something more settled (as it happened last month). That said models are generally singing from the same hymnsheet with a few minor differences. As the models detail it now, we are looking at the wettest, coolest spell of the Summer so far.
  3. 3 likes
    Four players got it spot on this month reef, Thundery wintry showers, A Winter's Tale, and Costa Del Fal (Blizzards) while 33 got within 0.5c this month. Full Results uploaded tomorrow.
  4. 3 likes
    Quote from the BBC News Website.... "The cow was shot by police marksmen about five hours later. Police Scotland said humane destruction was a "last resort" but public safety and animal welfare had to be a priority." Oh no, wait, that's from the wrong story isn't it?
  5. 3 likes
    Morning all I'm not as bullish as some on here this morning - the trend over the last couple of days seem to this observer to be to worsen conditions for the coming weekend. The 06Z GFS Operational chart for Sunday morning: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-120.png?6 That's a long way from a summery chart to my eyes and the trough doesn't clear off quickly either: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-168.png?6 Again, for all the talk of a ridging Azores HP, this still doesn't scream "summer" to me. Not as bad as the GEM chart for the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014070100/gem-0-174.png?00 Chart of the day for hay fever sufferers. This morning's ECM at the same time, while more settled, is a long way from a heat wave: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070100/ECM1-168.GIF?01-12 There's not a lot in the models this morning to suggest any kind of hot weather (thankfully). As long as we keep pressure high to the SW and draw in an Atlantic WNW flow, it'll be warm and pleasant without being hot and humid.
  6. 2 likes
    Well this is different from the ECM Low pressure ejects northwards with high pressure building in from the south. The tropical storm is also being handled differently.
  7. 2 likes
    I hate the lack of storms this area has seen so far that I may have to look in to other methods of seeing one and invest in one of these! http://www.richardclarkson.com/shop/cloud
  8. 2 likes
    No....I'm sure that's the right one!
  9. 2 likes
    Day 8 and each model has low pressure affecting the UK, GEM is the worst of the bunch. 16-32 Met forecast is largely based from the Euro ensembles.
  10. 2 likes
    June was a very typical early summer month for me i felt in Reading and it was lovely. Mostly warm and dry with temperatures in the low 20's with a few cooler days slotted in-between and some thunderstorms. If July carries on in the same vein but is slightly warmer than I'll be ranking this summer quite highly. Highest temp was 23.9c but this year has been pretty strange its been persistently warm but its never gotten hot. However back at my parents in South Devon its been a different story, its been very dry and very warm month with temperatures in the low to mid 20's for at least two and a half weeks with it reaching 24c at least five times during the month but was more average and wet during the last few days. There seems to be a lot of hinting of riding coming in strong for the second week of July. I have a hunch we may see that developing russian high pressure link up with ridge from the azores during the middle part of the month which could give a widespread spell of very warm and mostly settled weather. Just a hunch though
  11. 2 likes
    Picking up on a couple of points here no-one of couse is saying forecasting, especially in potentially showery situations, is easy but yesterday the Beeb morning TV presentation (and the previous evenings) of the day's likely events in our region was way off the mark. Emphasis was on a lot of dry weather and sunshine with just a few unlucky people seeing a shower. Istead we had a cool, largely cloudy and rather wet day. Carol Kirkwood I notice this morning was far more circumspect with her choice of words, emphasising the risk is still there of showers, so I'm guessing they are well aware of their error. The Wimbledon scheduling committee have been criticised but I'm kind of betting the Met Offoce had given them a far better forecast than the reality we saw yesterday. My hunch fwiw is that today won't be like yesterday and we will have a fine pleasant day!
  12. 2 likes
    nice post with good selection of charts to illustrate
  13. 2 likes
    No problem with this at all. Always quite liked Charles. There are certainly worse people who already do have too much influence on government policy.
  14. 2 likes
    6 minute current affair segment, aired Friday on Tasmania's 7:30 program....starring 'Tasboy'. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-06/the-sea-ice-paradox/5507054
  15. 1 like
  16. 1 like
    How many miles that lot ran? .... Emmmm... i'll stick to my arm chair thanks
  17. 1 like
    Richard2901 do you think it might be best for you to move house? I mean,you sound a very very stressed individual.
  18. 1 like
    The past week or so has seen 3.4 fall from 1 to 0.3 and 1.2 fall from 2.1 to 1.6. This is rapidly becoming a farce.
  19. 1 like
    Got to disagree there we helped in Libya and that failed and we now have puppet government that pays the rebels money. They have also spread out from Libya into other areas so supporting the rebels again hasn't helped. The same again would have happened in Syria. At the moment Assad is turning the tide if he wins you may end up with a stable country again. Depending on how the Muslim world respond to the declaration by ISIS you could well have a nearly endless supply of young fighters willing to defend it. More likely it will divide the Muslim world further as ALQ won't like losing power so we may end up with a civil war within a civil war. Good for the arms trade but not much else. Unfortunately the intelligence service won't have the man power to track every fighter that comes back. However there more subtle ways of fighting wars rather than blowing people up already seen with operation trojan horse. Have no go areas for people perceived not Muslim which has already happened in the past and play the race card if anybody raises the issue so the police will turn a blind eye to it. You will get the hot heads who will plan attacks of course but that's not the best way forward as of yet.
  20. 1 like
    which is all you'll be able to eat once all your teeth are gone .........
  21. 1 like
    Things have been so dire around here and for so long, that the sun going behind a cloud for ten minutes would pass.
  22. 1 like
    Sounds good to me. I hope the weather is good for hols.
  23. 1 like
    Things aren't growing well in my garden despite me watering them! Tap water doesn't seem to agree with them, so rain will be appreciated here too! Not sure how long the unsettled spell will last!
  24. 1 like
    One of the key reasons for pressure struggling to rise next week takes place well to our north. The WAA shifting westwards from the Russian/Scandi ridge prevents the low from clearing away northwards. Now these east to west ridges have been notorious at being over played by the models which tend to weaken them as we approach T0. Noting the importance the latest GFS run has a weaker ridge Same time but core low heights are further north west and pulling away as opposed to sinking south east. We do get left in a slack north westerly, but more a scattered showers scenario with respectable temperatures. That Russian block is looking like it means business so we need the Azores high to help out and reorientate the jet to get us in the mix if it is possible. UKMO No ridging westwards over the top of the low, but we still end up with a shallow low over the UK due to the residual cold pooling. As for week 2, anything is possible from here to be honest. Could end up turning hot and dry or cool and wet from here.
  25. 1 like
    So do I. Good to see soccer/football finally taking off in a big way in the USA!
  26. 1 like
    Lovely day out there. Would be nice to see rain at the weekend as the lawn is dying despite me watering it.
  27. 1 like
    The most infuriating thing is when you drift off watching TV only to wake up, go to bed and BING!!!! Wide awake for hours on end. I suffer badly from insomnia, it's a really irritating problem
  28. 1 like
    I wonder if she'll need to go on benefits now? A perfect example of new Labour.
  29. 1 like
    Thank you for your high hopes But you have no chance, 'Thank God!!!' ....HOT! sultry nights, definitely don't appeal to me
  30. 1 like
    That's right Vorticity Also it works vice versa. The main threads are there to discuss the many disturbances across the basins, many of which fail to become tropical cyclones, instead of starting a thread for each one. This stops the forum being littered with threads of "non-events" so to speak The newest advisory indicates 01L reaching minimal hurricane strength. A little fairly useless piece of trivia: if future Arthur does reach hurricane strength, it'll be the first storm named Arthur to do so in the Atlantic basin (all previous Arthur's have only reached tropical storm strength).
  31. 1 like
    A number of those countries have Shia populations, are secular or are not even Muslim. The biggest I could see a Sunni caliphate becoming would be to include most of Iraq and Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. While the Iraq invasion can be blamed for the fall of Iraq now, the allowance of ISIS to gain ground stems more from our lack of action in Syria. Had we backed the FSA before 2013 then the Islamists could have been dealt with (it was 2013 that they really took over the true rebels), instead the pacifists and isolationists are to blame for the fact that the islamists have had 3 years to fight among themselves and rally behind one sect. Since the invasion of Iraq and Arab Spring are not directly connected I make the case that they'd have infested Syria regardless. Of course most blame should go to the UN for not allowing Saddam to be deposed in 91 before terrorists had tools like the internet and wireless technology ect.. to aid their organisation.
  32. 1 like
    Seems to me the further south and west you are the conditions "should" be more settled going by these.... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif...( i know 3+days running) along with these... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif being similar to each other gives a better view to where we are going... the Met update has surprised me today tbh i was expecting the outlook to be as good as yesterday,that said i remember reading once GP said stick to the ensemble means so tbh thats what i do. i cant post link to the charts as i do not know if im allowed to reproduce them from the site i get them from but i have found the..(ECMWF) ones to be very good so far this summer and like i said it looks to me like the further south and west you are the better the weather will be.
  33. 1 like
    GFS 06z isn't interested in anything settled next week with low pressure refusing to move If GFS was right we'd be looking at the wettest week of summer so far The met office are not as bullish about a pressure rise either they still expect more settled conditions to develop but but they are now saying "for a few days"
  34. 1 like
    Quickly going back to Robben, how is he not a cheat? He theatrically leaps through the air during any small sign of contact, if that's the only way he can get his side to win a game, then it's a disgrace. Mexico deserved to have won that game, I feel for them. A shame for Algeria too.
  35. 1 like
    Hadley is confirmed as 15.1C: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
  36. 1 like
    Do 'NO' campaigners have a death wish? I wouldn't like to be in Kathy Wiles' shoes when she starts knocking on doors in Angus! My goodness, likening Scottish children to the 'Hitler Youth' in a tweet which was then erased was not only stupid but downright suicidal! I would imagine she should be finished before she even starts. But hey, that's what we're up against folks! Maybe when the BBC reports her gaffe?.....Oh, wait - "All pigs fed and ready to fly Sir!" http://wingsoverscotland.com/smear-em-young/
  37. 1 like
    A snippet from today's Times. Voters turn away from independent Scotland Voters are turning their backs on the bid for Scottish independence, according to a dramatic new poll that threatens to leave Alex Salmond’s hopes in tatters. Support for a “yes†vote in September’s referendum is falling away and now stands at just 39 per cent — down three points since March — in the poll by YouGov for The Times. One expert said that it left Scotland’s first minister in need of a “gamechangerâ€. However, it is the question of whether Scots think they will be better or worse off under independence which is seen as vital to how they will vote on September 18. According to the poll, only 27 per cent think that the country would be better off, down three points since March, while 49 per cent think that it would be worse off, up four points. Forty three per cent think that they personally will be financially worse off if Scotland separates — up from 39 per cent in March. Only 17 per cent think that they will be better off, down from 19 per cent. Organisers of the No campaign are gaining traction with their economic arguments despite internal tensions and accusations that its strategy is putting off voters. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4134904.ece (paywall)
  38. 1 like
    Just a quick question before July really starts in the morning: what is the likelihood of this sort of summer leading up to a Very Cold Winter? What is the main model to look at to understand the impact of one season on the next?
  39. 1 like
    Keith, It really is an amazing event, yet again this year. The chances are that we will have the annual daily maximum sea ice extent broken three years in a row. And the large-scale processes associated with the SH sea ice this year are quite different, in some regards, to the previous two years. It's fascinating – and why I love science.
  40. 1 like
    July 2014 forecasts, CET averages and extremes 25.2 ... ... ... ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean 20.0 ... CRAIG EVANS 19.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2006 (warmest July) 19.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... 1983 (2nd warmest) 18.9 ... 18.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1783 (3rd warmest) 18.7 ... GEOFFW ... ... .... .... 1976, 1852 (tied 4th warmest) 18.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1995 (6th warmest) 18.5 ... STATIONARY FRONT 18.4 ... 18.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... CET for 2013 (tied 9th warmest) 18.2 ... BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE 18.1 ... BLADE 18.0 ... POLAR GAEL 17.9 ... ROGER J SMITH 17.8 ... NORRANCE, SCOTTRICHARDS10 17.7 ... NN2013, MARCH BLIZZARD, HILLBILLY, STEWFOX, TONYH, DON, JONBOY** 17.6 ... LEEHWS, SUMMER SUN, PJL20101 17.5 ... DANCERWITHWINGS, J10, EASY-OASY 17.4 ... BOBD29, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, FARAGE BALLOON, THUNDERY WINTER SHOWERS 17.3 ... REEF, DR(S)NO, A WINTER'S TALE* 17.2 ... MATTY 007, THE PIT, MARK BAYLEY, DAVEHSUG 17.1 ... SIMSHADY, DAVID SNOW, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER 17.0 ... LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, IREMEMBERATLANTIC252, DUNCAN McALISTER, ADERYN COCH, DEEP SNOW* 16.9 ... CONGLETON HEAT, SUNDOG, MULZY, STARGAZER* 16.8 ... 16.7 ... MILHOUSE, WEATHER26, SUMMER BLIZZARD .... .... .... ---- average for 1981-2010, and for 2001-13 ---- 16.6 ... DAMIANSLAW, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, BORNFROMTHEVOID, RJBW** 16.5 ... BARRY, GAEL_FORCE .... .... .... .... ---- average for 1971-2000 ---- 16.4 ... GODBER 16.3 ... CORAM 16.2 ... POLAR MARITIME 16.1 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, WEATHER-HISTORY .... .... .... .... .... .... ---- average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800 ---- 16.0 ... ---- average for all years 1659-2013 ---- 15.9 ... 15.8 ... ---- average for 1801-1900 ---- 15.7 ... 15.6 ... ---- average for 1659-1700 ---- 15.5 ... CHEEKY MONKEY 15.4 ... 15.3 ... 15.2 ... 15.1 ... 15.0 ... 14.0 ... ... ... ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest) 13.6 ... ... ... ... 1879 (4th coldest) 13.5 ... ... ... ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest) 13.4 ... ... ... ... 1816 (coldest July) 8.7 ... ... ... ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean ______________________________________________________________ 60 forecasts so far, median is 17.2 C * one day late
  41. 1 like
    I have the table of forecasts ready to post at midnight, just changed my own very slightly to fill a space at 17.9. If you want an open spot, these were open before I posted this: 16.8, 18.3, 18.4, 18.6 and most below 16.1. Check the table for the final details but it looks like the median is around 17.0 so a general expectation of warmth.
  42. 1 like
    Because, like everyone has been saying for several days, showers are very difficult to predict. In fact, this morning there were some suggestions that showers could break out. But if you think it's so easy, start studying the charts yourself!
  43. 1 like
    Nice and warm for my birthday today. Sunny spells. Touch wood but hopefully another completely dry birthday!
  44. 1 like
  45. 1 like
    Saw some rain on the drive back to Saffron Walden, quite heavy back here for a time. Now it's turned clear. Got the day off tomorrow and will be giving the car a nice treat (a service). BBC are mentioning that temperatures could hit 28C by Thursday in this part of the world. Looks like a really nice week weather wise.
  46. 1 like
    All time record for Antarctic sea new record today reported in Cryophere Today ,sea ice area 2,074 million sq km the previous record was 1,840 million sq km,http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
  47. 1 like
    Cracking game between Saints and Wigan which the former deservedly won 16-12. And there was no al fresco dining.
  48. 1 like
    People who mention global warming in every single topic on every single thread to the point of boredom
  49. 1 like
    The below words are from Chris Waddle and I think it sums things up perfectly IMO:- "I'm just fed up of talking about the same old problems. The biggest problem is the Premier League. They have a product which they sell around the world which is entertaining but it's doing our players no good whatsoever. "This is a Premier league side which played in what is supposed to be the best league in the world. You're not telling me that all of those Uruguayan players will get in many teams in the world apart from Suarez. "We go on banging a drum about we've got this and we've got that. Do you know what makes the Premier League exciting? It's players like Luis Suarez, the foreign players. We hype all our players massively, as we always do." "It's not about picking your star players, it's about getting a balance of a side which is going to get you a result. We never do. The media is to blame as anybody else because when they drop somebody, or they play somebody in a different position, we're on the case straight away. "How do you win football matches? You start from the back and then you get organised and if you've got two or three creative players, you build a side round certain players. "That gets your side balanced. Not about having the best 11 flair players you can find. We never, ever, ever learn."
  50. 1 like
    http://mallemaroking.org/amundsen-sea-embayment/ Is the geothermal heat significant for melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Take Pine Island – which is adjacent to the Thwaites. Pierre Dutrieux and colleagues had this to say in 2013 of the basal melt rates. “At the broad scale [basal], melt rates of up to 100 m/yr occur near the grounding line [where the ice meets the ocean], reducing to 30 m yr/ just 20 km downstream [over the ocean]." So 100 metres per year from the ocean verses 6.3 millimetres per year from the geothermal heat. And the geothermal heat is clearly extremely variable in space. And if you want go one step further then Park and colleagues said that this basal melt rate due to the ocean was increasing at an accelerating rate of 0.53 ± 0.15 m / yr−2. Schroeder and colleagues work is, in my view, excellent and very significant. It demonstrates a hidden component for glacier hydrology. But it is not the reason for the observed melt of the WAIS.
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