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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/07/14 in all areas

  1. 18 points
    First big post so be nice.... Tomorrow is looking dry, sunny and warm UK wide with temperatures reaching the low twenties, maybe the mid twenties in the warmer spots. There is a chance of a few showers breaking out through the spine of the country, maybe affecting play at Wimbledon but not as bad as the past couple of days. Wednesday brings a change with a weatherfront, associated with a deep area of low pressure to the northwest, brings increasing cloud, rain and strong winds to the NNW of the UK. Further south, its opposite fortunes with the sun out and temperatures rising further to 24/25C, with the odd isolated shower around. By Thursday the low has travelled towards the UK, so the front has progressed South to introduce the cooler, damper weather to Northern England, Midlands, North Wales etc. But the Southeast still basking in hot sunshine with temperatures reaching 26C, maybe 27C around London. On Friday, the low throws yet more rain into the UK, the heaviest of which always further North and West. Temperatures very poor across Scotland with the low-mid teens at best but England always warmer and the Southeast on top as always with one more day of hot sunshine. Whatever the weather, Andy Murray will not disappoint!!
  2. 15 points
    i think youre being overly pessimistic there mate...i dont think the outlook is at all dire, to me its shaping up to be a pretty average summer, albeit so far lacking any proper but short lives hot spells. plenty of nice summery weather about, indispersed with wetter more unsettled spells. no heatwave but no monsoon, better then most recent summers.
  3. 5 points
    hi all today here has been yuk tonight these showers will finally stop around midnight temps not cold but could feel chillier than of late potential for mist and fog where you have had rain today ------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow a variable flow but should be more south-south east flow light winds but may get breezy on south coastal regions in the afternoon it looks dry but the very far south and south west of our region may get some light showers in the afternoon temps coastal regions around 17-18 degrees others 20-21 degrees will be a day of some cloud some sun ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night dry and temps could feel on the chilly side a chance of some mist patches locally ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- wednesday a very weak westerly flow and will be dry also there is a better chance of seeing a lot of sun today temps coastal 19-21 = v nice others 24-26 degrees and will feel less humid :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- warm on wednesday night and dry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ thursday should be pretty warm and dry however holding this for now as that front incoming keeps getting shifted around anyway guys i hope that helps regards john
  4. 4 points
    The outlook is dire, if you're looking for a continuation of summer, and leaning more towards a low pressure, below average temperatures and very wet scenario as it stands. I'd be very surprised if this changed in the next 3 days but it is possible it could backtrack towards something more settled (as it happened last month). That said models are generally singing from the same hymnsheet with a few minor differences. As the models detail it now, we are looking at the wettest, coolest spell of the Summer so far.
  5. 4 points
    The trend for lower heights to fight back the Azores High continues. The GEM has lower pressure out till D10: T90: D10: GFS op has a different scenario with a cut off low so temps better and some possible stormy downpours: The control is more an east/west split: Mean confirms trend, D10: UKMO at D6: Navgem at T180: The July CFS anomaly: ECM has the Azores High edging slightly further east (ties in with its mean of yesterday) so by D8: Though by D9 it is still being held back with the cool uppers still over the UK: I do think GEM has over done the intensity of the lower pressure in our locale and suspect it will be a slacker mix. All agree that the UK will have four days at least of cooler temps. London from Saturday, earlier and longer for up north: Also hinting at the trend towards a possible unsettled early July at least. Of course this is only the current indications and may all change for the better in following runs.
  6. 3 points
    Four players got it spot on this month reef, Thundery wintry showers, A Winter's Tale, and Costa Del Fal (Blizzards) while 33 got within 0.5c this month. Full Results uploaded tomorrow.
  7. 3 points
    ECM could well be too bullish in week 2 with building the Azores high,compared to recent ens means and GFS. The upper trough developing to our north west looks set to remain as a shallow feature next week uncomfortably close to the UK. Worst case scenario ala GFS op would give some widespread showery activity into week 2. Tonight;s GFS mean-day 8 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif Recent comments on here that the stubborn Russian ridge may lock that trough in situ and this is indeed a possibility. Overall although not an overly warm setup it could develop into quite a decent fine spell but for this modeled shallow low that at the moment looks to be the fly in the ointment.
  8. 3 points
    Quote from the BBC News Website.... "The cow was shot by police marksmen about five hours later. Police Scotland said humane destruction was a "last resort" but public safety and animal welfare had to be a priority." Oh no, wait, that's from the wrong story isn't it?
  9. 3 points
    Morning all I'm not as bullish as some on here this morning - the trend over the last couple of days seem to this observer to be to worsen conditions for the coming weekend. The 06Z GFS Operational chart for Sunday morning: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-120.png?6 That's a long way from a summery chart to my eyes and the trough doesn't clear off quickly either: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-168.png?6 Again, for all the talk of a ridging Azores HP, this still doesn't scream "summer" to me. Not as bad as the GEM chart for the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014070100/gem-0-174.png?00 Chart of the day for hay fever sufferers. This morning's ECM at the same time, while more settled, is a long way from a heat wave: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070100/ECM1-168.GIF?01-12 There's not a lot in the models this morning to suggest any kind of hot weather (thankfully). As long as we keep pressure high to the SW and draw in an Atlantic WNW flow, it'll be warm and pleasant without being hot and humid.
  10. 3 points
    It is to avoid the Atlantic hurricane/invest thread from getting too crowded and confusing. In other words, the policy is to create a separate thread on each new tropical cyclone developing. The general threads for each individual basin (for example, the East-Pacific and the West-Pacific/North Indian invest threads) only discuss tropical disturbances up to and including invests. So, when a system gets classified as a tropical cyclone by an agency (for example: NOAA or JTWC), a new thread is started. The same occured with tropical storms Douglas and Elida, which were discussed in the East Pacific thread when they were still invests, but got a separate thread when they were designated as tropical cyclones by the NHC. I hope this answers your question satisfactory .
  11. 2 points
    Hope your plants pick up soon. I can't remember the name of it at the mo but there is something I buy 4 sachets for £1 water once a year and the plants seem to thrive even if I have to use rock hard London water. I discovered it during the drought a few years ago. I'll pop to the shed tomorrow and find it. Can't let the weather get in the way of gardening.I picked my 1st outdoor cucumber of the season tonight and the last summer raspberries, both early this year and I have blackberries turning red already! I have the next 2 days free and I'll be in the garden Thank you JP for the updates, much appreciated. Now if it could be dry on Saturday till 3ish I'd be so happy! It can rain after that.I hope all this early fruit and the reports of early autumn behavior of some wildlife doesn't mean an early winter. That won't make for a happy Tadpole
  12. 2 points
    Well this is different from the ECM Low pressure ejects northwards with high pressure building in from the south. The tropical storm is also being handled differently.
  13. 2 points
    I hate the lack of storms this area has seen so far that I may have to look in to other methods of seeing one and invest in one of these! http://www.richardclarkson.com/shop/cloud
  14. 2 points
    No....I'm sure that's the right one!
  15. 2 points
    Day 8 and each model has low pressure affecting the UK, GEM is the worst of the bunch. 16-32 Met forecast is largely based from the Euro ensembles.
  16. 2 points
    Not sure how Mexico deserved to win for me Holland were the better team and won fair and square..if anything Robben theatrics plays against him probably cost him a stonewall penalty earlier in the match. Anyway looking for to Belgium v USA tonight..who'd have thunk it?
  17. 2 points
    June was a very typical early summer month for me i felt in Reading and it was lovely. Mostly warm and dry with temperatures in the low 20's with a few cooler days slotted in-between and some thunderstorms. If July carries on in the same vein but is slightly warmer than I'll be ranking this summer quite highly. Highest temp was 23.9c but this year has been pretty strange its been persistently warm but its never gotten hot. However back at my parents in South Devon its been a different story, its been very dry and very warm month with temperatures in the low to mid 20's for at least two and a half weeks with it reaching 24c at least five times during the month but was more average and wet during the last few days. There seems to be a lot of hinting of riding coming in strong for the second week of July. I have a hunch we may see that developing russian high pressure link up with ridge from the azores during the middle part of the month which could give a widespread spell of very warm and mostly settled weather. Just a hunch though
  18. 2 points
    Picking up on a couple of points here no-one of couse is saying forecasting, especially in potentially showery situations, is easy but yesterday the Beeb morning TV presentation (and the previous evenings) of the day's likely events in our region was way off the mark. Emphasis was on a lot of dry weather and sunshine with just a few unlucky people seeing a shower. Istead we had a cool, largely cloudy and rather wet day. Carol Kirkwood I notice this morning was far more circumspect with her choice of words, emphasising the risk is still there of showers, so I'm guessing they are well aware of their error. The Wimbledon scheduling committee have been criticised but I'm kind of betting the Met Offoce had given them a far better forecast than the reality we saw yesterday. My hunch fwiw is that today won't be like yesterday and we will have a fine pleasant day!
  19. 2 points
    nice post with good selection of charts to illustrate
  20. 2 points
  21. 2 points
    No problem with this at all. Always quite liked Charles. There are certainly worse people who already do have too much influence on government policy.
  22. 2 points
    I posted the article as I thought is was a good thing rather than a bad one, good to see a potential future king taking a vested interest in the country and its workings IMHO.
  23. 2 points
    I can't see why he should not be entitled to his opinions and have the ability to express them the same as anybody else - the conditions of the monarchy will ensure a limitation on such actions will be limited mostly to the use of 'tete a tete' discussions with politicians and to an extent could help moderate some more extreme views.
  24. 2 points
    6 minute current affair segment, aired Friday on Tasmania's 7:30 program....starring 'Tasboy'. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-06/the-sea-ice-paradox/5507054
  25. 1 point
    The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has finally gotten into business. Tropical depression One has developed out of a low pressure area (formerly 91L), which has been meandering of the northeastern coast of Florida during the past few days. Current organization Current satellite imagery (as of 07:30 UTC) shows that Tropical depression One is under impact of significant northerly shear, which is blowing the convection southward away from the LLCC (low level circulation centre). In fact, the LLCC is still partially exposed (according to CIMSS). Visible satellite loop of Tropical depression 01 (Courtesy: NHC) Forecast Despite the seemingly disorganized appearance, the NHC forecasts gradual strengthening of the cyclone, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kt near the Eastern Seaboard. This is caused by a trough which forces the cyclone to recurve toward the northeast after a slow southwestward drift in a few days. The forecast track from the NHC can be seen below: Forecast track of Tropical depression 1. Sources: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
  26. 1 point
  27. 1 point
    Richard2901 do you think it might be best for you to move house? I mean,you sound a very very stressed individual.
  28. 1 point
    made another five goose egg based quiche tonight, that is the freezer stocked up for the next month at least. Had the kitchen door and windows open and kept taling trips into the garden whilst baking (also did a further tidy of the front garden too), quite a productive evening I feel. And great to take advantage of the good weather here, sunny and warm, little breeze and very dry.
  29. 1 point
    The past week or so has seen 3.4 fall from 1 to 0.3 and 1.2 fall from 2.1 to 1.6. This is rapidly becoming a farce.
  30. 1 point
    Things have been so dire around here and for so long, that the sun going behind a cloud for ten minutes would pass.
  31. 1 point
    Wow, the teenager does it !! Nadal beaten. Nick Kyrgios (AUS) looked super impressive. B.
  32. 1 point
    Kyrgnios two sets to one up against Nadal. Thirty four aces! Incredible stuff.
  33. 1 point
    well the last couple of days have been decent after it cooling off for a while got the polmont station just down the road back online and it got to 22.2c yesterday and with unbroken sunshine today it topped out at 25.7c hopefully it will last another few days so I can keep getting on with my garden as I'm hoping by the end of this summer I will have a maintenance free garden the bark chippings get delivered tomorrow so spent most of today getting the front garden weed free ready to start getting it laid out and hopefully the rest of the summer will play ball and come autumn all I will have to do garden wise is cut the grass happy days lol.
  34. 1 point
    Sounds good to me. I hope the weather is good for hols.
  35. 1 point
    Things aren't growing well in my garden despite me watering them! Tap water doesn't seem to agree with them, so rain will be appreciated here too! Not sure how long the unsettled spell will last!
  36. 1 point
    One of the key reasons for pressure struggling to rise next week takes place well to our north. The WAA shifting westwards from the Russian/Scandi ridge prevents the low from clearing away northwards. Now these east to west ridges have been notorious at being over played by the models which tend to weaken them as we approach T0. Noting the importance the latest GFS run has a weaker ridge Same time but core low heights are further north west and pulling away as opposed to sinking south east. We do get left in a slack north westerly, but more a scattered showers scenario with respectable temperatures. That Russian block is looking like it means business so we need the Azores high to help out and reorientate the jet to get us in the mix if it is possible. UKMO No ridging westwards over the top of the low, but we still end up with a shallow low over the UK due to the residual cold pooling. As for week 2, anything is possible from here to be honest. Could end up turning hot and dry or cool and wet from here.
  37. 1 point
    So do I. Good to see soccer/football finally taking off in a big way in the USA!
  38. 1 point
    The most infuriating thing is when you drift off watching TV only to wake up, go to bed and BING!!!! Wide awake for hours on end. I suffer badly from insomnia, it's a really irritating problem
  39. 1 point
    Says it all really. Must dive to win game.
  40. 1 point
    A number of those countries have Shia populations, are secular or are not even Muslim. The biggest I could see a Sunni caliphate becoming would be to include most of Iraq and Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. While the Iraq invasion can be blamed for the fall of Iraq now, the allowance of ISIS to gain ground stems more from our lack of action in Syria. Had we backed the FSA before 2013 then the Islamists could have been dealt with (it was 2013 that they really took over the true rebels), instead the pacifists and isolationists are to blame for the fact that the islamists have had 3 years to fight among themselves and rally behind one sect. Since the invasion of Iraq and Arab Spring are not directly connected I make the case that they'd have infested Syria regardless. Of course most blame should go to the UN for not allowing Saddam to be deposed in 91 before terrorists had tools like the internet and wireless technology ect.. to aid their organisation.
  41. 1 point
    Seems to me the further south and west you are the conditions "should" be more settled going by these.... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif...( i know 3+days running) along with these... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif being similar to each other gives a better view to where we are going... the Met update has surprised me today tbh i was expecting the outlook to be as good as yesterday,that said i remember reading once GP said stick to the ensemble means so tbh thats what i do. i cant post link to the charts as i do not know if im allowed to reproduce them from the site i get them from but i have found the..(ECMWF) ones to be very good so far this summer and like i said it looks to me like the further south and west you are the better the weather will be.
  42. 1 point
    GFS 06z isn't interested in anything settled next week with low pressure refusing to move If GFS was right we'd be looking at the wettest week of summer so far The met office are not as bullish about a pressure rise either they still expect more settled conditions to develop but but they are now saying "for a few days"
  43. 1 point
    Hadley is confirmed as 15.1C: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
  44. 1 point
    Some more El Niño-like patterns emerge, but no El Niño yet. Issued on Tuesday 1 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00 While the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is currently at levels typically associated with a weak El Niño, waters below the surface have cooled and atmospheric patterns continue to remain neutral. However, over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
  45. 1 point
    Blimey you really have swallowed Blairs speech about it becoming destabilized anyway. It may or may not have we don't know. How ever removing a leader without any clear exit stratagey isn't going to leave a stable country. Playing the starving card well how many have died of starvation after the militants started the civil war in Syria. As for strife in Islam yes it has been going on for centuries however by interfering in countries providing arms bombing one side will not make things better rather worse. Providing arms to one side as they are your pals on that day doesn't help in the long term. The fact is US and British moves in the middle east even to the present day are making things worse than better and includes Cameron as well. Just denying the past and not learning from mistakes only leads one to make the same mistakes again.
  46. 1 point
    I have the table of forecasts ready to post at midnight, just changed my own very slightly to fill a space at 17.9. If you want an open spot, these were open before I posted this: 16.8, 18.3, 18.4, 18.6 and most below 16.1. Check the table for the final details but it looks like the median is around 17.0 so a general expectation of warmth.
  47. 1 point
    Terribly out of focus photo of last nights spectacular display but you get the general idea. One of the best displays I've seen for a few years. I'll keep my eyes peeled again tonight as we only have light high cloud.
  48. 1 point
    Lets be honest we can all argue the toss as to the why and who and where..but the major problem is that since England won the world cup we have woefully underperformed in major tournaments to the point it is embarrassing..since their last appearance in a major final other big European nation records in reaching the finals in the world cup and Euros are as follows: Germany 11 Italy 7 France 4 Spain 4 Holland 4 England 0 I wont even go into semi finals as the figures are even more of a horror show. this tells you everything you need to know about the England football team.
  49. 1 point
    The below words are from Chris Waddle and I think it sums things up perfectly IMO:- "I'm just fed up of talking about the same old problems. The biggest problem is the Premier League. They have a product which they sell around the world which is entertaining but it's doing our players no good whatsoever. "This is a Premier league side which played in what is supposed to be the best league in the world. You're not telling me that all of those Uruguayan players will get in many teams in the world apart from Suarez. "We go on banging a drum about we've got this and we've got that. Do you know what makes the Premier League exciting? It's players like Luis Suarez, the foreign players. We hype all our players massively, as we always do." "It's not about picking your star players, it's about getting a balance of a side which is going to get you a result. We never do. The media is to blame as anybody else because when they drop somebody, or they play somebody in a different position, we're on the case straight away. "How do you win football matches? You start from the back and then you get organised and if you've got two or three creative players, you build a side round certain players. "That gets your side balanced. Not about having the best 11 flair players you can find. We never, ever, ever learn."
  50. 1 point
    http://mallemaroking.org/amundsen-sea-embayment/ Is the geothermal heat significant for melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Take Pine Island – which is adjacent to the Thwaites. Pierre Dutrieux and colleagues had this to say in 2013 of the basal melt rates. “At the broad scale [basal], melt rates of up to 100 m/yr occur near the grounding line [where the ice meets the ocean], reducing to 30 m yr/ just 20 km downstream [over the ocean]." So 100 metres per year from the ocean verses 6.3 millimetres per year from the geothermal heat. And the geothermal heat is clearly extremely variable in space. And if you want go one step further then Park and colleagues said that this basal melt rate due to the ocean was increasing at an accelerating rate of 0.53 ± 0.15 m / yr−2. Schroeder and colleagues work is, in my view, excellent and very significant. It demonstrates a hidden component for glacier hydrology. But it is not the reason for the observed melt of the WAIS.
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