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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/07/14 in all areas

  1. First big post so be nice.... Tomorrow is looking dry, sunny and warm UK wide with temperatures reaching the low twenties, maybe the mid twenties in the warmer spots. There is a chance of a few showers breaking out through the spine of the country, maybe affecting play at Wimbledon but not as bad as the past couple of days. Wednesday brings a change with a weatherfront, associated with a deep area of low pressure to the northwest, brings increasing cloud, rain and strong winds to the NNW of the UK. Further south, its opposite fortunes with the sun out and temperatures rising further to 24/25C, with the odd isolated shower around. By Thursday the low has travelled towards the UK, so the front has progressed South to introduce the cooler, damper weather to Northern England, Midlands, North Wales etc. But the Southeast still basking in hot sunshine with temperatures reaching 26C, maybe 27C around London. On Friday, the low throws yet more rain into the UK, the heaviest of which always further North and West. Temperatures very poor across Scotland with the low-mid teens at best but England always warmer and the Southeast on top as always with one more day of hot sunshine. Whatever the weather, Andy Murray will not disappoint!!
    18 points
  2. i think youre being overly pessimistic there mate...i dont think the outlook is at all dire, to me its shaping up to be a pretty average summer, albeit so far lacking any proper but short lives hot spells. plenty of nice summery weather about, indispersed with wetter more unsettled spells. no heatwave but no monsoon, better then most recent summers.
    15 points
  3. hi all today here has been yuk tonight these showers will finally stop around midnight temps not cold but could feel chillier than of late potential for mist and fog where you have had rain today ------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow a variable flow but should be more south-south east flow light winds but may get breezy on south coastal regions in the afternoon it looks dry but the very far south and south west of our region may get some light showers in the afternoon temps coastal regions around 17-18 degrees others 20-21 degrees will be a day of some cloud some sun ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night dry and temps could feel on the chilly side a chance of some mist patches locally ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- wednesday a very weak westerly flow and will be dry also there is a better chance of seeing a lot of sun today temps coastal 19-21 = v nice others 24-26 degrees and will feel less humid :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- warm on wednesday night and dry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ thursday should be pretty warm and dry however holding this for now as that front incoming keeps getting shifted around anyway guys i hope that helps regards john
    5 points
  4. The outlook is dire, if you're looking for a continuation of summer, and leaning more towards a low pressure, below average temperatures and very wet scenario as it stands. I'd be very surprised if this changed in the next 3 days but it is possible it could backtrack towards something more settled (as it happened last month). That said models are generally singing from the same hymnsheet with a few minor differences. As the models detail it now, we are looking at the wettest, coolest spell of the Summer so far.
    4 points
  5. The trend for lower heights to fight back the Azores High continues. The GEM has lower pressure out till D10: T90: D10: GFS op has a different scenario with a cut off low so temps better and some possible stormy downpours: The control is more an east/west split: Mean confirms trend, D10: UKMO at D6: Navgem at T180: The July CFS anomaly: ECM has the Azores High edging slightly further east (ties in with its mean of yesterday) so by D8: Though by D9 it is still being held back with the cool uppers still over the UK: I do think GEM has over done the intensity of the lower pressure in our locale and suspect it will be a slacker mix. All agree that the UK will have four days at least of cooler temps. London from Saturday, earlier and longer for up north: Also hinting at the trend towards a possible unsettled early July at least. Of course this is only the current indications and may all change for the better in following runs.
    4 points
  6. Four players got it spot on this month reef, Thundery wintry showers, A Winter's Tale, and Costa Del Fal (Blizzards) while 33 got within 0.5c this month. Full Results uploaded tomorrow.
    3 points
  7. ECM could well be too bullish in week 2 with building the Azores high,compared to recent ens means and GFS. The upper trough developing to our north west looks set to remain as a shallow feature next week uncomfortably close to the UK. Worst case scenario ala GFS op would give some widespread showery activity into week 2. Tonight;s GFS mean-day 8 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif Recent comments on here that the stubborn Russian ridge may lock that trough in situ and this is indeed a possibility. Overall although not an overly warm setup it could develop into quite a decent fine spell but for this modeled shallow low that at the moment looks to be the fly in the ointment.
    3 points
  8. Morning all I'm not as bullish as some on here this morning - the trend over the last couple of days seem to this observer to be to worsen conditions for the coming weekend. The 06Z GFS Operational chart for Sunday morning: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-120.png?6 That's a long way from a summery chart to my eyes and the trough doesn't clear off quickly either: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-168.png?6 Again, for all the talk of a ridging Azores HP, this still doesn't scream "summer" to me. Not as bad as the GEM chart for the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014070100/gem-0-174.png?00 Chart of the day for hay fever sufferers. This morning's ECM at the same time, while more settled, is a long way from a heat wave: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070100/ECM1-168.GIF?01-12 There's not a lot in the models this morning to suggest any kind of hot weather (thankfully). As long as we keep pressure high to the SW and draw in an Atlantic WNW flow, it'll be warm and pleasant without being hot and humid.
    3 points
  9. It is to avoid the Atlantic hurricane/invest thread from getting too crowded and confusing. In other words, the policy is to create a separate thread on each new tropical cyclone developing. The general threads for each individual basin (for example, the East-Pacific and the West-Pacific/North Indian invest threads) only discuss tropical disturbances up to and including invests. So, when a system gets classified as a tropical cyclone by an agency (for example: NOAA or JTWC), a new thread is started. The same occured with tropical storms Douglas and Elida, which were discussed in the East Pacific thread when they were still invests, but got a separate thread when they were designated as tropical cyclones by the NHC. I hope this answers your question satisfactory .
    3 points
  10. Hope your plants pick up soon. I can't remember the name of it at the mo but there is something I buy 4 sachets for £1 water once a year and the plants seem to thrive even if I have to use rock hard London water. I discovered it during the drought a few years ago. I'll pop to the shed tomorrow and find it. Can't let the weather get in the way of gardening.I picked my 1st outdoor cucumber of the season tonight and the last summer raspberries, both early this year and I have blackberries turning red already! I have the next 2 days free and I'll be in the garden Thank you JP for the updates, much appreciated. Now if it could be dry on Saturday till 3ish I'd be so happy! It can rain after that.I hope all this early fruit and the reports of early autumn behavior of some wildlife doesn't mean an early winter. That won't make for a happy Tadpole
    2 points
  11. Well this is different from the ECM Low pressure ejects northwards with high pressure building in from the south. The tropical storm is also being handled differently.
    2 points
  12. I hate the lack of storms this area has seen so far that I may have to look in to other methods of seeing one and invest in one of these! http://www.richardclarkson.com/shop/cloud
    2 points
  13. Day 8 and each model has low pressure affecting the UK, GEM is the worst of the bunch. 16-32 Met forecast is largely based from the Euro ensembles.
    2 points
  14. June was a very typical early summer month for me i felt in Reading and it was lovely. Mostly warm and dry with temperatures in the low 20's with a few cooler days slotted in-between and some thunderstorms. If July carries on in the same vein but is slightly warmer than I'll be ranking this summer quite highly. Highest temp was 23.9c but this year has been pretty strange its been persistently warm but its never gotten hot. However back at my parents in South Devon its been a different story, its been very dry and very warm month with temperatures in the low to mid 20's for at least two and a half weeks with it reaching 24c at least five times during the month but was more average and wet during the last few days. There seems to be a lot of hinting of riding coming in strong for the second week of July. I have a hunch we may see that developing russian high pressure link up with ridge from the azores during the middle part of the month which could give a widespread spell of very warm and mostly settled weather. Just a hunch though
    2 points
  15. Picking up on a couple of points here no-one of couse is saying forecasting, especially in potentially showery situations, is easy but yesterday the Beeb morning TV presentation (and the previous evenings) of the day's likely events in our region was way off the mark. Emphasis was on a lot of dry weather and sunshine with just a few unlucky people seeing a shower. Istead we had a cool, largely cloudy and rather wet day. Carol Kirkwood I notice this morning was far more circumspect with her choice of words, emphasising the risk is still there of showers, so I'm guessing they are well aware of their error. The Wimbledon scheduling committee have been criticised but I'm kind of betting the Met Offoce had given them a far better forecast than the reality we saw yesterday. My hunch fwiw is that today won't be like yesterday and we will have a fine pleasant day!
    2 points
  16. nice post with good selection of charts to illustrate
    2 points
  17. 6 minute current affair segment, aired Friday on Tasmania's 7:30 program....starring 'Tasboy'. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-06/the-sea-ice-paradox/5507054
    2 points
  18. The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has finally gotten into business. Tropical depression One has developed out of a low pressure area (formerly 91L), which has been meandering of the northeastern coast of Florida during the past few days. Current organization Current satellite imagery (as of 07:30 UTC) shows that Tropical depression One is under impact of significant northerly shear, which is blowing the convection southward away from the LLCC (low level circulation centre). In fact, the LLCC is still partially exposed (according to CIMSS). Visible satellite loop of Tropical depression 01 (Courtesy: NHC) Forecast Despite the seemingly disorganized appearance, the NHC forecasts gradual strengthening of the cyclone, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kt near the Eastern Seaboard. This is caused by a trough which forces the cyclone to recurve toward the northeast after a slow southwestward drift in a few days. The forecast track from the NHC can be seen below: Forecast track of Tropical depression 1. Sources: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
    1 point
  19. Richard2901 do you think it might be best for you to move house? I mean,you sound a very very stressed individual.
    1 point
  20. made another five goose egg based quiche tonight, that is the freezer stocked up for the next month at least. Had the kitchen door and windows open and kept taling trips into the garden whilst baking (also did a further tidy of the front garden too), quite a productive evening I feel. And great to take advantage of the good weather here, sunny and warm, little breeze and very dry.
    1 point
  21. The past week or so has seen 3.4 fall from 1 to 0.3 and 1.2 fall from 2.1 to 1.6. This is rapidly becoming a farce.
    1 point
  22. Looking at the ECM 12z....oh great, more boringly benign weather to see us well into July. Pleasant is all good and well for a little bit but I'm craving some kind of interesting weather....
    1 point
  23. Things have been so dire around here and for so long, that the sun going behind a cloud for ten minutes would pass.
    1 point
  24. Sounds good to me. I hope the weather is good for hols.
    1 point
  25. Precipitation totals from GFS upto t192 show the driest weather next week for the south and parts of the east it looks pretty wet for the Lake District and western Scotland with totals approaching 70mm and 80mm respectively
    1 point
  26. Things aren't growing well in my garden despite me watering them! Tap water doesn't seem to agree with them, so rain will be appreciated here too! Not sure how long the unsettled spell will last!
    1 point
  27. One of the key reasons for pressure struggling to rise next week takes place well to our north. The WAA shifting westwards from the Russian/Scandi ridge prevents the low from clearing away northwards. Now these east to west ridges have been notorious at being over played by the models which tend to weaken them as we approach T0. Noting the importance the latest GFS run has a weaker ridge Same time but core low heights are further north west and pulling away as opposed to sinking south east. We do get left in a slack north westerly, but more a scattered showers scenario with respectable temperatures. That Russian block is looking like it means business so we need the Azores high to help out and reorientate the jet to get us in the mix if it is possible. UKMO No ridging westwards over the top of the low, but we still end up with a shallow low over the UK due to the residual cold pooling. As for week 2, anything is possible from here to be honest. Could end up turning hot and dry or cool and wet from here.
    1 point
  28. Worth noting, do we not think that only yesterday, it was wall-to-wall sunshine next week after the weekend's blip according to the models. (OK, I exaggerate, but you take the point). Now summer's over because the GFS at least has retreated from that today (OK, hyperbole is my hobby on this post!). There is lots of time for it to flip back. Take a look at the ensembles for Herts: You will note that to a greater or lesser degree all members agree on a pressure recovery from Sunday, although the odd rogue goes off message mid-week. The control and op runs are, whilst not outliers, amongst the lower members for pressure with the mean c. 7-8 mb above the op. It seems to me that based on these charts (and indeed earlier runs), uncertainty for next week is currently very high, although a pressure increase to some extent (maybe insufficient for fine weather admittedly) is very likely for the south at least.
    1 point
  29. Sunny 21.1c! There is a possibility that the weekend will be cool and unsettled with a NE breeze and heavy rain!
    1 point
  30. Good addition Somerset Squall, I hadn't yet thought about the other side of the reasoning . On a more serious note: Tropical Depression One has been upgraded to Tropical storm Arthur, the first of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Although convection still appears to be sheared, the convection has increased in areal coverage and depth (judging from satellite imagery). This could have prompted the aforementioned upgrade. Arthur also appears to be on the influence of some dry air. Water vapor imagery shows that a pocket of relatively dry air is located to the north and northwest of Arthur. This was possibly also a contributor to the relative lack of convection of the cyclone in the northern semicircle. Water vapor satellite imagery of Arthur (Courtesy: NOAA) However, now that convection appears to be on the increase, it might indicate that the northern half of Arthur will soon also be covered (if the northwesterly shear also abates, as indicated by the NHC). This could initiate a period of more steady strengthening of the system. Sources: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011502.shtml http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html
    1 point
  31. No wonder the models suddenly backed away from high pressure building in next week........ The Express curse is back Summer scorcher: UK set for TWO WEEKS of sweltering weather as El Nino turns up the heat BRITAIN is about to sizzle in a two-week burst of summer – as the El Nino effect pushes up temperatures around the world. Sunshine and blue skies, which will signal the start of a heatwave across the country, possibly from Thursday, could last through until at least the middle of July, forecasters said yesterday. The predictions come as the Met Office’s Dan Williams revealed the El Nino phenomenon, which occurs when temperatures rise in the Pacific Ocean, is likely to trigger “major climatic impacts†across the globe. This could bring a greater risk of typhoons in the tropical north-west Pacific, including China and south-east Asia, and drought in western parts of the United States. The last El Nino in 2009/2010 resulted in an exceptionally cold winter across northern Europe, including Britain, which was crippled by snow. Its effect this time could see 2014 or 2015 turning out to be the hottest year on record – with temperatures from the first half of the year in Britain having already been warmer than average. Met Office spokeswoman Nicky Maxey said: “We are looking at some fairly dry, fine weather for everybody. “We have got high pressure making things warmer and there is warm air coming off the Continent.†http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/485930/Sweltering-summer-to-sizzle-as-El-Nino-turns-up-the-heat
    1 point
  32. Seems to me the further south and west you are the conditions "should" be more settled going by these.... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif...( i know 3+days running) along with these... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif being similar to each other gives a better view to where we are going... the Met update has surprised me today tbh i was expecting the outlook to be as good as yesterday,that said i remember reading once GP said stick to the ensemble means so tbh thats what i do. i cant post link to the charts as i do not know if im allowed to reproduce them from the site i get them from but i have found the..(ECMWF) ones to be very good so far this summer and like i said it looks to me like the further south and west you are the better the weather will be.
    1 point
  33. Some more El Niño-like patterns emerge, but no El Niño yet. Issued on Tuesday 1 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00 While the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is currently at levels typically associated with a weak El Niño, waters below the surface have cooled and atmospheric patterns continue to remain neutral. However, over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
    1 point
  34. Just a quick question before July really starts in the morning: what is the likelihood of this sort of summer leading up to a Very Cold Winter? What is the main model to look at to understand the impact of one season on the next?
    1 point
  35. Keith, It really is an amazing event, yet again this year. The chances are that we will have the annual daily maximum sea ice extent broken three years in a row. And the large-scale processes associated with the SH sea ice this year are quite different, in some regards, to the previous two years. It's fascinating – and why I love science.
    1 point
  36. I have the table of forecasts ready to post at midnight, just changed my own very slightly to fill a space at 17.9. If you want an open spot, these were open before I posted this: 16.8, 18.3, 18.4, 18.6 and most below 16.1. Check the table for the final details but it looks like the median is around 17.0 so a general expectation of warmth.
    1 point
  37. Lightning captured from the ISS.... https://vine.co/v/MFzIvZBq6M7
    1 point
  38. Because, like everyone has been saying for several days, showers are very difficult to predict. In fact, this morning there were some suggestions that showers could break out. But if you think it's so easy, start studying the charts yourself!
    1 point
  39. Nice and warm for my birthday today. Sunny spells. Touch wood but hopefully another completely dry birthday!
    1 point
  40. http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/06/30/gold-from-the-sky/
    1 point
  41. While my friend was at the doctors, I popped around the back to have a look at the floodplain- looked gorgeous in the sunshine, so I took a pic on the phone, shame there's a bypass in the background lol
    1 point
  42. Yes Coventry 1974 from my own records as a 14 year old. At nearby Long Lawford the COL observer Stephen Burt recorded nothing higher than 76f June to August.
    1 point
  43. Saw some rain on the drive back to Saffron Walden, quite heavy back here for a time. Now it's turned clear. Got the day off tomorrow and will be giving the car a nice treat (a service). BBC are mentioning that temperatures could hit 28C by Thursday in this part of the world. Looks like a really nice week weather wise.
    1 point
  44. All time record for Antarctic sea new record today reported in Cryophere Today ,sea ice area 2,074 million sq km the previous record was 1,840 million sq km,http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
    1 point
  45. Staff at Australia's Davis station in Antarctica plunge into an icy pool for midwinter celebrations. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-21/members-of-australias-station-in-antarctica-plunge/5540872
    1 point
  46. Terribly out of focus photo of last nights spectacular display but you get the general idea. One of the best displays I've seen for a few years. I'll keep my eyes peeled again tonight as we only have light high cloud.
    1 point
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