Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Leaderboard

Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 21/06/14 in Posts

  1. And only 8 days for it to go completely wrong and end up drier and warmer than average again I think another 24 hours or so is needed before any confidence can be given on said breakdown, especially considering how the models have backtracked so many times on this type of evolution. Conditions look good still until Friday before then though so plenty of summer-like weather to enjoy before then with temperatures into the low/mid twenties in places.
    7 points
  2. This morning, using the usual 500mb anomalies, and they are still not that similar, but near enough to suggest that an upper trough not a ridge will be the main effect on the surface by mid to late next week. The 120h Fax shows the high to the north holding off any Atlantic but I suspect this will be altered over the next 2-3 days, that is for a chart valid for Wednesday onwards.
    6 points
  3. Temperatures look like holding up next week for most It doesn't look like we'll see a great deal of rain so hopefully not must disruption for Wimbledon during the opening week Monday looks like seeing the most of the showers developing in the afternoon as the heat builds Bar the odd shower Tuesday looks drier though temperatures will be down slightly on Monday for some parts Wednesday sees temperatures fairly similar to those of Tuesday possible some more persistent rain moving into Ireland and North west Scotland By Thursday temperatures begin to rise for the south the best of the driest weather continues to be in the east with the west prone to some rain / showers Friday has temperatures into the mid 20's for the south still dry for most of the south but some rain could develop for the north and west And finally next Saturday this could be the first troublesome day for Wimbledon with showers developing during the afternoon temps in the mid 20's for the south so possibly a humid day
    5 points
  4. 300 hours out on the 6z GFS.....is this post serious or a wind up? If you're new to model watching, a bit of advice....take anything after 168hrs with a pinch of salt! On to the 12z....if there's ever a weather chart which is the epitome of the term 'cross roads', this is it......!
    5 points
  5. BBC who are very conservative and don't often make remarks about long term outlooks, were saying with confidence becoming unsettled next week make the most of this weekend, they usually sit on the fence, but do seem confident. The general trend is becoming increasingly unsettled as we move towards the end of the month with the atlantic trough action set to influence the country - too early to call how wet it may turn out, but it is quite ominous in its timing where the end of June often sees the 'return of atlantic westerlies'....
    5 points
  6. I see why UKMO have modified their model as it is very progressive with the lowering of the heights by D5: GEM: GFS: However will they modify it back this morning as ECM is now rolling with it (slightly slower): D5 D6 D7 It takes a couple of days longer on the GFS op but some members support this faster evolution. Last night's ECM ridge (D9-10) had 33% support from the GEFS but this morning that support is only a background signal as the GEFS continue to trend to lower height: The mean pressure remains below 1017.5 from D6 till the end of FI. Bearing in mind the latest EC32 had an anomaly chart like this for July 01: It is unlikely last night's ECM op has it right for D8-10 (as usual). No real change from yesterday with the trend to less settled continuing. How it manifests on the surface remains the main challenge for the models and of course timing.
    5 points
  7. Indeed. Looks like the gfs 06z is showing signs of prolonging the settled weather into next week, but going against its previous 00z run. Ecm has been fairly consistent over the last few days with a change in our weather during this coming midweek, and although both models have showed pretty poor modelling of late, ecm over the last few days as shown more consistency with its modelling, so if I had to put money on a model ,this time it would be the Ecm.....
    4 points
  8. Funny how confidence is always high when unsettled/cool conditions are shown, even at quite far out. Given the last few months, all I can conclude is the Oxford English dictionary have changed the definition of the word "confidence". The swines
    4 points
  9. Very hard at the moment to forecast beyond 5 days ,each day seems to bring a prolonging of the dry and sunny weather .the charts a couple of days ago were going for more of a change later next week ,but it does look like the atlantic will be on the attack so possibilitys afoot for a possible showery spell but nothing yet concrete .i have been tuning in to our fantastic Net weather forum and have enjoyed all the input from posters ,all the best to all ,and as the nights now gradually pull in heres to a memorable [winter forum ]cheers from legritter .
    3 points
  10. Hi polar maritime, whilst your statement is quite correct in what the gfs is showing , it's extremely unlikely a gfs chart from deep fairy tale land will verify , the last week we'v seen very few t144 charts get any where close let alone something that's over 300 hours away. For me June has even a fantastic month , despite lots of people forecasting it to be wash out . Lots of sunshine , 2/3 thunderstorms , and lots of warm temps in early 20's . Next week looking a week of transition in my opinion to a more westerly type pattern , no wash out , no northerly plunge , just weather breaking somewhat but pleasant by day and warm in Sunshine.
    3 points
  11. I think you're 58 pages too late with that plea!
    3 points
  12. Before it descends into one, let's not turn this into a summer people vs. winter people thread.
    3 points
  13. Oi. We don't whinge when it's cold,dark and wet - that's exactly what summer types do when it's anything but 35C all day in summer. Miserable,whining bleeders. Besides, having seperate threads would mean we'd have nothing to bounce off each other except to reassure one another how good it is during their favourite season. "Oh isn't it wonderful today"? "Yes,isn't it". I see what you did there!
    3 points
  14. Losing a second is a million times better than gaining one.
    3 points
  15. I was just gona say the same thing captain shortwave!!it's already happend plenty of times where the models have shown unsettled conditions to break through but doesnt really happen in the end!!with this breakdown being 8 days away I wouldn't count on things turning unsettled just yet!!even if it does doesnt look like a washout by any means!!
    3 points
  16. compare the subtle changes on the latest Fax chart for Wednesday with the one for 24 hours ago. I do believe that the subsequent charts will follow this idea, slightly lower pressure values in the same chart areas and a more Atlantic look rather than the high to the north blocking that flow. Also fits with the 500mb guidance as I see it. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
    2 points
  17. the difference is even the shortest days of the year are still about as long as a working day 8-4 but nobody says the working day is too short, plus you are asleep at night when its dark so you only really see a few hours a day of darkness in winter, in summer if you get up at 7am you will see about 15 hours of daylight a day is that not enough? even if you get up at lunchtime you will see still about 10 hours of light a day in june and july, we've already had some nice warm days this summer mildies really don't know how lucky they are, how many snow and ice days will i see in winter, 1 maybe 2 if im lucky, average temps in summer in any sun feels pleasant, in winter 7c and cloudy doesn't quiet cut it for me, preferably we need 0c in winter for snow we don't need 30c in summer, maybe 25c+ if you want to get in your swimming pool, how many people have one?
    2 points
  18. The GFS is showing a very unsettled wet/cool N/W flow by the start of next Month. With heavy Snowfall over Southern Greenland.. All FI of course.
    2 points
  19. It does look like a breakdown will occur at the end of the week, but the details look very messy. UKMO looks way too clean and removes heights north of the UK. ECM shows how complications can occur if the high to the north links up with either the ridge to the south east or south west of the UK. This could delay things or sods law stall low pressure over the UK. Beyond that, I will admit that the outlook looks changeable, but rather surprised at the hints of drier and very warm conditions potentially developing into mid-July from the metoffice update.
    2 points
  20. 12Z charts from GFS, ECM and UKMO all quite different really by T144. GFS keeps a weak ridge over us with frontal activity mainly confined to the north (thundery outbreaks further south possible) - still warm. UKMO loses all heights and looks set for a longer period of unsettled weather. ECM in the middle - a small depression makes it through blocks to the north and the south - maybe unsettled for a couple of days but no prolonged breakdown. So while an end to the anticyclonic dominance looks likely, no clear way ahead from next weekend just yet.
    2 points
  21. Up at 0630. Back to bed when the sun got too much. Up again at 1130. Breakfast. Mulled around on here inbetween playing Xbox games in a darkened room. Pal phoned up having a spot of bother with his mo'bike. Had to begrudgingly go out in the awful glare of the day to fix that. Came back and had a nap. Going to shop soon,when the light at least starts to fade a little. Out all day tomorrow - forecast is bad so not looking forward to that at all. Wish it was mid November so badly.
    2 points
  22. Sound advice there from Crewe Cold and as ever, I also wouldn't jump on individual runs as they have a habit of misleading even the most experienced of model suite watchers. The summaries of the H500 (upper air) profiles of the Northern Hemisphere afforded to us by the likes of John Holmes continually provide sound guidance too, especially given that conditions at the surface are nearly impossible to predict at t+168 hours or wherever and of course, this timescale isn't static either. Moving on, my prediction of the pivotal date for the forthcoming breakdown is extremely close to CC's posting above with the New Moon of the 27th June being my anticipated breakdown date. I'm sure we will almost certainly see a more mobile picture by then, but just how prolonged this new weather phase becomes, how warm, how cool, how wet etc. is in the "lap of the gods" territory even at this relatively short range of just t+144 hours or thereabouts. Nonetheless should any HP influence arrive at our shores once again, will it be so predictable as to its' duration, well for me, no, I suggest I struck it lucky when I made the following comment way back on the 9th June "I believe this will be a more prolonged episode of HP dominance than most might currently imagine, stretching well into next week but let's see, shall we." At that time, the HP influence wasn't forecast to stay around for more than five to six days according to most commentators, but bar the Thundery blip last weekend, its held firm for nigh on two weeks and should largely still be in control up to the mid-week period of next week at least. Enjoy this spell of predominately dry weather while it lasts as it is Wimbledon next week after all, so some downpours are inevitable as so often is the case at this time of year.
    2 points
  23. UKMO keeps to its guns with D5 LP moving SE: D6: GEM also now on board for lowering pressure D5, but not as clean as UKMO, rather stalls: D7: Still there by D10: GFS, as expected quicker than the 06z, but slower than UKMO: GFS op in FI has a westerly flow with N/S split and Short wave ridges and troughs somewhere over UK:
    2 points
  24. Quite a deep low being shown in the GFS run. Very windy UK wide with gales and severe gales very probable at this stage. A lot of rain, heavy at that, since the airmass is looking quite warm and humid. Worth keeping an eye on as it may cause some damage as trees are in full leaf and some places are still prone to flooding.
    2 points
  25. Nah... Keep it as one, makes it more interesting
    2 points
  26. With you on that Bobby! Bring on the dark nights and Blizzards.
    2 points
  27. This weather is really getting on my mammaries now. It's ok for week or so, then my patience starts to fray. Hayfever, midges, insects, light at something past 3 in the morning, 11pm at night. Heat, sunburn, humidity, having to water garden. People blasting loud horrific music. Hard to sleep. Reminds me of and confirms exactly why I don't like this weather at this time of year. At least some light at the end of the tunnel now we're at solstice. Models hinting at some changes as well. Bring on the blizzardcanes and Ice Age.
    2 points
  28. Yep..it's only going to get better from here on in!
    2 points
  29. U really need to change your username!
    2 points
  30. Fill yer boots whilst you can,it's on its way out - and that's official.
    2 points
  31. 1151 - solstice! This is truly as bad as it can possibly get, but the pendulum has reached the end of its stroke at long,long,long last.
    2 points
  32. I think this is been a magnificent summer so far. Mostly sunny, dry and pleasantly warm temperatures. Plus I got the best thunderstorm I've ever seen in the UK.
    2 points
  33. Consensus may have occurred. All models going for the breakdown by day 8.
    2 points
  34. Willard get's an award. http://ingeniouspursuits.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/awards-night.html
    2 points
  35. Looking down the line the ECM and NOAA seem in broad agreement so could be a period of unsettled weather.
    2 points
  36. Looking at the trend on the london precip graph shows mainly dry out to the 26th. Thereafter, a good chance of a wet day (and 50/50 on a second one ) in the following five days. If the ens anomolys remain weak, then a more settled or unsettled outcome for week 2 is feasible. The ecm op is of more than usual ineterest in its normal ' just for fun' period post day 7 whilst we have these weak anomolys. Of course, it could be that we are headed into a period of 'nothingness' , which, given the time of year would mean ok conditions though with a high chance of some precip, either heavy showers or fairly transient frontal incursions lacking too much punch.
    2 points
  37. Look like a pleasant week ahead according to the GFS, only turning unsettled and cooler once it goes into low res. Next weekend could be thundery.
    1 point
  38. Exactly 3hrs and 7mins until solstice, but seeing as it's such a crappy,sunny day again I'm gonna finish me coffee and go back to bed. See y'all on the other side.
    1 point
  39. Staff at Australia's Davis station in Antarctica plunge into an icy pool for midwinter celebrations. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-21/members-of-australias-station-in-antarctica-plunge/5540872
    1 point
  40. GFS & ECMWF showing the Atlantic winning out this morning by the turn of the Month, Bringing unsettled and wet conditions to all.
    1 point
  41. no...it might not even last the week, thats unlikely.as things stand, the uncertainty for only a few days ahead makes anything over a week away very uncertain. what caught my eye though was the fax charts.. note the high to our north drift and intensify towards us, that looks like it might deflect the incoming, shallow, atlantic troughs and energy into france. i believe this charts supports that kind of scenario this would be good enough news for summer lovers as theres still a strong potential for some summery weather and even a real heatwave to evolve. of course on the other hand its equally feasible that the high/s fail to build sufficiently and the atlantic could 'win' which wouldnt be good news for 'summer' lovers.
    1 point
  42. Note that the day 5 fax ditches the raw ukmo gm and looks closer to ECM op though not a complete copy
    1 point
  43. I'm sure you said the same prediction for June and it has not been anything too spectacular so far. The ice is slightly different to 2013, bit mixed news really, clearly the "Laptev bite" is bigger this year although it seems melting has slowed down here to some extent and the ice in Beaufort is more broken up but so far, there has been no real low concentrations near the pole and concentration in ice seems higher than last year but of course that can change fairly quick. In terms of the forecast outlook, high pressure looks like it will fade somewhatand for most of the Arctic it looks like very shallow low pressure systems could be more of a player but still looking quite mild across large parts of the Basin.
    1 point
  44. i dont think i can remember such an 'unknown' outlook... well they are pretty uncommen anyway, usually we have some idea of what lies ahead out to 10 days albeit with no detail. (pressures likely to build here or there resulting in 'x' or 'y' type of scenario)but the anomaly charts appear to change randomly at will, the ops are clearly undecided, in all its looking a mess, but what will emerge? im not so sure we can have a week or more of messy synotics, something stronger is bound to emerge isnt it? we might be on the cusp of a memorable hot spell, or yet another let down as the atlantic might win out.but for mow ill be happy to enjoy the bright warm sunshine
    1 point
  45. Noticed it coming back from the pub last night at 12:30am. Still yellows and oranges to the north. Astronomical twilight at our latitude (southern Northern England) lasts from about the middle of May to the end of July. In Lerwick it lasts from 21st April to 21st August.
    1 point
  46. A lot of seasons don't conform to what is expected of them not just autumn.Infact exactly what is the expectation of autumn? Is it gales and rain or Keats' season of mists and mellow fruitfulness?
    1 point
  47. Snow in Russia first time in June another regions in Russia Tyer breaks 60yr old cold record. http://www.fontanka.ru/2014/06/19/143/ Here some pictures of the recent Tver snowfall:http://loft36.de/uploads/posts/2014-06/thumbs/1403119119_1.gifhttp://loft36.de/rossiya/4094-v-sredu-v-tverskoy-oblasti-proshel-snegopad.htmlTver is not far from Moscow.http://www.ikhebeenvraag.be/mediastorage/FSImage/A0/3100/foto.jpg
    1 point
  48. To be honest ,this is rubbish. The Climate of the Uk is always variable, at any time of year. Just look at the Summer of 1995, a very dry second half of the summer, and given the 1990,s it was a generally warm decade, then came December that year ,reached its coldest temperature of minus 27.2c in Scotland for a record low. We live here in the British Isles in a "Cool Temperate" climate so its weather will always have fluctuations and variability , there is certainly no pattern yearly to our weather....
    1 point
×
×
  • Create New...