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Showing content with the highest reputation on 17/06/14 in all areas

  1. Relatively new to Netweather and my first post on the MOD. Why? I've noticed a new model on Meteociel that looks as though it will be worth keeping an eye on, the FIM. Here's its take on Sunday: Here's what Wikipedia says about this model (quote): The Flow-following, finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM) is a numerical weather prediction model currently under development at the Earth System Research Laboratory. The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System, the United States's current medium-range forecast model. The FIM was originally slated to become operational some time in 2014 (as of spring 2014 the model is still testing); the GFS will continue to be run and maintained for several years afterward, much in the same way the GFS and its predecessor, the Nested Grid Model, ran concurrently for several years. The model currently produces similar results to the GFS, but runs slower on the NWS's operational computers. Its three-part name derives from its key features: "flow-following" indicates that its vertical coordinates are based on both terrain and potential temperature (isentropic sigma coordinates, previously used in the now-discontinued rapid update cycle model), and "finite-volume" describes the method used for calculating horizontal transport. The "icosahedral" portion describes the model's most uncommon feature: whereas most grid-based forecast models have historically used rectangular grid points (a less than ideal arrangement for a planet that is a slightly oblate spheroid), the FIM instead fits Earth to a truncated icosahedron, with twelve evenly spaced pentagons (including two at the poles) anchoring a grid of hexagons. The FIM runs as a multiscale model, with a suffix number indicating the model's horizontal resolution. FIM7 operates at a spatial resolution of approximately 60 km, FIM8 at 30 km, FIM9 at 15km and FIM9.5 at 10km. The FIM7 and FIM8 both run twice daily (0z and 12z) with 6-hour temporal resolution out to 14 days. The FIM9 runs four times daily, also with 6-hour steps, out to 7 days. (FIM9.5 is not currently in operation.) Unquote! I think it will be interesting to see how this model performs on two levels as a possible successor to GFS. First, does the novel geometry of the model overcome any of GFS biases, second this model seems to run 14 days but without the drop in resolution at 8 days - will this be better at picking up trends than GFS? Time will tell no doubt.
    7 points
  2. think youre being abit harsh... sat sun seems largely settled and fine for most going off the charts shaky referred too.
    5 points
  3. Models are very very very inconsistent at the moment, GFS has gone from one scenario to another, and keeps jumping around for model watchers it can be incredibly frustrating when an outlook is showing a situation that would have vastly different outcomes, when translated into ground weather.
    3 points
  4. A pretty settled run from ECM tonight it does make me wonder if the breakdown will arrive next week, this is so similar to July 2013 a breakdown kept appearing only to get pushed further and further back. We are not looking at heatwave conditions far from it but in any sunshine it will feel very pleasant
    3 points
  5. Fairly benign conditions from the ECM so far. Warming up for southern England and remaining that way till Sunday. Cooler air filtering south all the while and a fresher feel to things for the start of next week as high pressure attempts to push back in from the west. Remaining dry and fairly pleasant. A long way from the rainfest of June 2012 and probably better than last June as well.
    3 points
  6. 7 Tornadoes today (Including 5 Wedges) takes me to 100 Not Out!! Just a couple of the 100's of pictures we got with these beasts coming straight at us at times, twice we had 2 on the ground at once, some shameless plugging for the Netweather Tours as well
    3 points
  7. From what I seen, if you ignore the finer details, the models have been consistent of a similar pattern to now with high pressure just to the West of us and the UK being in a feed of Northerly to NW'ly winds, it does look like at times the high pressure will nose in but the main emphasis is on mainly dry weather, certainly no meaningful rainfall on the way. Its a weather pattern that won't be loved by all but at least some areas are getting proper summery weather and for most of joe public, dry weather is what they like so there should not be many complaints really.
    2 points
  8. There might be more than a grain of truth in this! There were lots of miners in my family (as you'd expect,being smack in the middle of South Yorks!) and I do know that my dad hated summer as much as I do now. And my maternal grandmother was the same - she'd literally hide from the light but go outside dancing with joy in the rain - tho' she'd never been down't pit! Maybe it's just hereditary? Thinking about it, the vast majority of my fond childhood memories involve winter and darkness - whether nothing much good happened in summer or my mind has rejected them over the (considerable) years since, I'm not sure.
    2 points
  9. I don't think there's a general wholesale reason for not liking the warmth and the sun. We are not odd or wrong or weird, we just don't like it, for a number of different reasons. I have 2 Autistic sons, one with Aspergers, and they have complete indifference to the weather. I also have Asthma and hay fever and in warm weather the symptoms are ten times worse but I wouldn't want anyone else not to enjoy the fine weather, it's just a cross that I have to bear. Some people like it, some people don't. Personally I hate it and can't wait till it cools down, it's just my opinion.
    2 points
  10. Hmmm, I think that analysis is very unfair considering you've never met the guy. In the Scottish Highlands we get both extremes, very long summer days with lingering twilight / very short winter days with long nights and weak sunshine during the day. To be honest, I prefer the depth of winter with high pressure dominating and freezing fog / frost throughout the day, everything is calm, clean feeling and sleepy, which I find very relaxing. Each to their own, hillbilly - besides, I've never had much time for what the majority in the middle are up to.
    2 points
  11. Thanks for the concern (no,sincerely) rather than the usual "oh he must be some type of weirdo for not liking summer" response. You may well be right about my Aspergers - a condition I've only been aware of for about seven years,though I've never considered possible physical reasons such as you mention. In truth I don't (perhaps wrongly) see it as a problem - merely being the opposite of folk who genuinely and without question have an abhorrence of winter. But maybe I'm suffering unneccesarily and should get checked out, though to be honest I wouldn't know where to start and would feel reluctant to waste a professional's time by saying the sun and warmth are getting me down! Not to worry - only four more full days before the pendulum of the seasons swings in my favour, whereupon I'll start to feel much better! Thanks again tho'... and how did those people you know fare, once their conditions had come to light and were,presumably,treated?
    2 points
  12. Last night's lingering twilight and noctilucent clouds visible as well.
    2 points
  13. Looks like the high to the west of the UK will hold throughout the weekend now. Interestingly it looks like the Atlantic jet could start to go through the gears next week which perhaps means the ridge out west could begin to push back towards the UK again during week 2. So possibly any breakdown might be brief and last a very short period of time. GFS ens Attempting to bring the ridge back to the UK. ECM and GEM ops are similar in this evolution but of course details will be pretty unreliable at this point. All in all it's not going to be too bad. It will be just be down to sunshine amounts.
    2 points
  14. Also regarding posts without charts and no back up statements there have been one two posts recently that have discussed, for example, the NH settling into it's summer state and the 'importance' of the jet stream position. None as far as I'm aware have discussed in any meteorological depth the reasoning behind these statements which means the reader has to take them on speck, so to speak. I believe Lamb went into the former in some detail and the relationship between upper tropospheric wind systems and surface weather and climate is, to say the least, complicated..
    2 points
  15. GFS this morning is showing some pretty cool air over the North around the 25th from the N/E. With Snow over the Highlands of Scotland..
    2 points
  16. Insane images coming in on Twitter now.. Devastating. A beautiful but evil looking set of twins.
    2 points
  17. Time lapse of the lingering twilight last night looking due north. The glow across northern horizon doesn't fade away
    2 points
  18. From the album: red pandas

    red pandas
    1 point
  19. Still a lot of differences even in the reliable timeframe, in particular to how strong the push of very warm air from the continent is during the coming weekend. GFS ECM GFS certainly warmer and drier. The ECM does look too clean in it's longer term outlook. The GFS looks more correct in creating a complex pattern dominated by low heights to the south and weak heights over or north of the UK. The Scandi trough looks to be just out of the picture, though cooler air could infiltrate from the north east at times to bring cooler and fresher weather. Saying that it could all be different in the morning
    1 point
  20. Good news for you dark lovers ,I believe mornings get darker after tomorrow morning!!!!!
    1 point
  21. I want a stormy outlook to get excited about !!!! But not too soon because I'm waiting to get my new camera :-)
    1 point
  22. I think some of today's runs, for example the UKMO ones that Summer Sun quoted and the 12z ECM ones quoted by Milhouse on the previous page, offer a bit of a warning for those of us, not least myself, who are prone to becoming overoptimistic, or overdepressed, by just one or two sets of runs. In other words, details and positioning are constantly changing and nothing either summery of washouty is nailed on for next week yet. I will say, that some of today's models do suggest that HP areas aren't necessarily a pushover. HP might (or might not!) turn out more resilient in terms of UK influence than some of Monday's models (in particular) were suggesting. And then again, the whole picture might have altered again by midnight, or tomorrow ... and over coming days. J10's updated model analysis for next week in Somerset, due later today 'over there'**, will put some good balanced detailed synoptic analysis on all the main models and other output, but from what I've seen here, I'm hopecasting he'll be talking a little more positively today. For now! **And now updated : http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80659-blog-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-10-issued-17-june/?p=2990520
    1 point
  23. From the feedback I must admit to being quite surprised, I thought the next observation would have been that the GW supporters movement had it's roots in Nazi Germany. Oh well.....................
    1 point
  24. The run ends fine and increasingly warm with the Azores high pushing back in
    1 point
  25. Still at 15.2 to the 16th maybe not too much change up or down for a while Tony.
    1 point
  26. Me too - until Lauren mentioned it I'd never considered that it may be symptomatic of Asperger's. Could just be the way I'm made but being so badly affected - like the worst excesses of those who suffer from the wholly acknowledged SAD in winter - does seem a bit odd.
    1 point
  27. Yep...pretty much agree with this.
    1 point
  28. Laserguy, simshady et al - time to book a trip to Finland? http://yle.fi/uutiset/coldest_june_night_in_50_years_brings_summertime_snow/7304434
    1 point
  29. Luna Halo https://www.flickr.com/photos/54894481@N04/14224451967/in/pool-metofficeweather
    1 point
  30. 1 point
  31. GFS 12z is showing a rather nice weekend now with the cool air never making it far enough south to spoil things. High pressure resident over the UK and remaining warm, becoming very warm in the south on Sunday and Monday.
    1 point
  32. UKMO still not keen on a breakdown maybe the odd shower where cloud is thicker but on the whole this lengthy settled spell looks like continuing with the warmest conditions the further west you are GFS also shows the high staying with us Away from the UK it doesn't look too good for Portugal and parts of Spain with that trough not going anywhere fast
    1 point
  33. Being sensitive to light, noise and sensations is quite common amongst those with Aspergers. I had no idea you had it but I recognised what you described so that should encourage you that you are not weird for feeling that way. Something you can do is gradual exposure work where you gradually build up a tolerance to these things in a similar way you would work on a phobia. I can't link on my phone but do look up hypersensitivity and Aspergers for more info.
    1 point
  34. Laserguy, I mean absolutely no disrespect by this and I genuinely mean well but.... ...have you got yourself checked out medically? It's just that I know one guy with Aspergers who cannot abide summer for similar reasons as you due to his condition and another who had serious thyroid and vitamin issues which caused similar symptoms. I know we're not all the same and not everyone likes summer and that's fine, but the grievances you describe sound familiar to me. Again, I really do mean well.
    1 point
  35. The models appear (usual caveats apply) to be obeying the rules of (i) underestimating blocks and (ii) migrating the pattern east as the days go by. The GEM has high pressure over us from start to finish: It's never particularly warm (especially IMBY), but it's dry for the most part. The weak trough/cut-off low to the SW of the Iberian peninsula will make it hot in the med if you're off there on your holibobs.
    1 point
  36. Please can we get back to Model Discussion only, And leave the Moderating to the Moderators. As long as charts are being discussed there is no problem. If you are unable to post charts or a link to them that's no issue, But please state what chart and Model you are revering to in the post. Please continue, Many Thanks. PM.
    1 point
  37. The lingering twilight and noctilucent clouds
    1 point
  38. From what I know, it is a mostly settled week for the south east, but by no means sunny all the time! High pressure will be close by but with a tendancy to move out to the west allowing cloud and cool northerly winds to flood down from time to time! Maybe the odd shower too!
    1 point
  39. 0010 BST 17/6/14 Some more now visible due N and slightly E of it, only about 3-5 deg above horizon.
    1 point
  40. Gotta be the one last Friday! Admittedly the forums on Netweather had mention of sonething possible but I honestly didn't expect for us to have any thunder at all, let alone an all-out storm. I went storm watching down at Devil's punch bowl first and could see flashes but that was from a fading cell over Portsmouth and feeling like we had lost out I headed back and thought I'd get one quick look from Guildford. Didn't expect to see another cell develop to my north and as that faded the monster moved in from the NW and gave the best lightshow I've seen for about 10 years!
    1 point
  41. It will shove off even further west, which will cool things down again after a brief warm up! It is cold isn't it! I think everyone in my neighbourhood is relieved though, as they don't want to keep there windows open after what happened! Everyone has locked themselves in! I think your watermelon plant will be fine! Although, if things don't heat up soon, it will struggle to grow and go the same way as mine did last year, not a pretty sight!
    1 point
  42. After a cloudy nothing type day I have a bl**dy cold night! sitting in my winter fleece PJ's with winter fleece dressing gown and winter slippers on. 14.5 in my living room is not acceptable for mid June especially as Friday was so hot and sunny. Where's the summer gone? when is it coming back? will it come back? and more importantly will by watermelon plant be OK under a bottle cloche which is under a fleece tonight?
    1 point
  43. re posts 659 and 660 this is UK Met take on it http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html see the 6-15 day outlook starting Saturday? maybe you are both right! But it would be helpful if, when unable to post charts, that some kind of summary of what a model is showing were given. It is possible I would have thought to give a link as I did above?
    1 point
  44. Evening all... Pretty poor weather weekend just gone, when comparing to the glorious working weeks weather. Saturday was cloudy and cooler of late, and that was the day we promised the children a trip to Deal in Kent to do a spot of fishing off the pier there. Was pretty gloomy all day but atleast we caught a few makeral and dogfish which brighten the mood. Around 4pm the cloud started break so we had some fish and chips on the front which ended up really nice in the sun in the end. On Sunday we planned a nice day out hoping it would be sunny, but it stayed cloudy and cool all day. So we opted with a chilled out Father's Day then a nice trip to TGIs for my Father's Day dinner. Today has been pretty much the same as yesterday. Tomorrow's forecast is looking good though, which is good as I have a business meeting planned on a boat next to HMS Belfast on the Thames. We are due to start sailing around 9.30 to 4pm up and down the Thames. I will hopefully have time to get some pictures, and if they are any good I will post here tomorrow. ATB
    1 point
  45. If BFTV is correct to the 20th then i can't see 15.2C being the end result.
    1 point
  46. Down or up from now on? That is the question!
    1 point
  47. Ok well to be honest I do not have the scientific knowledge to really say for certain, however my assumption has always been the pattern of the Jet Stream as one major factor. For example, in recent Summers it has been often flowing over or towards the South of the UK more often, with a tilt not favoured for the classic "spanish plume" storms to head on a favourable track to hit the UK. These storms would often form within a thundery low that developed from the heat of the day over Spain. The reason why those storms are often seen during the night, is because they form over the continent (typically the Bay of Biscay regions) during the afternoon, for them to then North and reach Southern UK by late evening. The problem we are seeing, is that we have been relying on Low Pressure formed along the Jet Stream for it then to sit to our SW/W and draw up humid airmasses from the continent. Weather fronts then destabalise this as it pushes in and triggers storms along these boundaries. Nothing wrong with that, as they can develop some great storms. However, if the jet was more North of the UK, I think it would allow these thundery systems over the continent to properly head North now and again, rather than get pushed on a more NE track all the time.
    1 point
  48. the warington and wigan storm last tues, (not my vid) you can hear the thunder approaching is almost non stop, the violent marble size hail happens near the end of the clip, believe me the thunder much louder in the flesh , and the lightning was brighter, 8.00 is were the real fun starts
    1 point
  49. Hi all managed to get a small storm in Mallorca. Managed to get my first lightning photo.
    1 point
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