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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/06/14 in all areas

  1. Not sure if common knowledge or not...but GM (UKMO) breaks down blocks faster than it should as a function of the statistics that output the verification index..so in short, more often than not, it gets it right, as more often than not, HP does not dominate and GM pushes us back into a zonal pattern consistent with climatological mean. (the model looks better, scores higher, we get it right most of the time). So, if GM keeps block for a long time, this is quite interesting as it is going against its internal revert to zonal flow after 3-4 days...so we can gain good confidence from this. I woul
    13 points
  2. ECM ensemble mean has pushed the pattern quite a ways East compared to a few days ago with high pressure being much more influential for the UK. 3 days ago +240 hrs.. today 168 hrs.. GEFS mean looks fairly consistent using the same comparison.
    8 points
  3. The correct answer is most likely 'neither'
    6 points
  4. Good morning gang, another lovely day in Zamunda (sorry watched coming to America last night). Anyway I'm going to try to attach a pic of my little Marley puppy.....
    6 points
  5. The GEM finally backs down this morning and places high pressure in charge throughout its run UKMO GFS Looks like heights will be pulled back westwards a little again. This could be a frustrating time for those in the east as this opens the door for cooler and cloudier north/north easterlies. Again west looks best this morning.
    6 points
  6. heres how all the models see things on Tuesday afternoon ECM GEM GFS UKMO NAVGEM JMA all have high pressure over head or close to by the west of us. the GFS 500mb for day 11 also has high pressure over us so models want it to stick around also the CPC 6-10 day 500mb forecast goes for high just off to our west which reading the discussion is in agreement with the ECM then the CPC 8-14 day 500mb forecast has the high moved more over top of us which agrees with the GFS 500mb chart but from reading the discussion it is
    4 points
  7. Some decent CAPE being shown across the eastern side of the country for tomorrow afternoon/evening, which if tapped into could bring some isolated but fairly intense thunderstorms. However, as some have pointed out, we have high pressure sat over the top of us acting like a lid on convection. GFS and WRF still break out storms over the Humber through the late afternoon which transfer southwards with time through Lincolnshire and eventually into East Anglia by late evening and the SE overnight. However, the higher resolution Euro4 model does not show any precipitation breaking out up to its las
    4 points
  8. http://onenameglobal.com/lightning-in-super-slow-motion-is-stunning/ Just seen this posted on FB from the 9th June in the Netherlands
    4 points
  9. ECM mean showing the high pressure is going to stick around for a while yet. Wind directions looks to be north/northwest round the top of the high so the best temperatures are to be found along the south coast. Where winds veer more northwest instead of north thats when eastern parts would see temperatures recover. GEM ends on a stunning note with high pressure anchored over the UK similar to July 2013.
    3 points
  10. As I alluded before it's hard to compare as it outputs dilute CAPE, which is cloud base to cloud top. It's actually scaled to 2km, for rather boring and fiddley reasons. Unfortunately probably cannot post charts, so I won't haha. But interesting to see 3hr ppn output (18z-21z) as well from UKV (have not looked at anything else that's in public domain, maybe other output agrees?) with lincolnshire looking most at risk and isol SE/London by 2100z tomorrow. Considering no dynamic activity tomorrow, these can be assumed convective so further support potential for some storms about!
    3 points
  11. A good bit of Surface based CAPE on offer throughout tomorrow, the front moving down from the NW could provide some surprises with a trigger along with the already mentioned convergence zone running down the country. Who thought high pressure was boring! Central & eastern areas favoured looking at the convective ppn charts.
    3 points
  12. Plenty of warm air on offer from UKMO this afternoon what the surface conditions are like is another matter especially for the east with light north to north easterly winds
    3 points
  13. ok then, the gfs 06z has little support lol. the anomaly charts appear to be on kind of the same wavelength, all suggest high to our west/northwest, and the 8-14 dayer appears to suggest the high will become closer to the uk. which is something most gfs runs (bar the 06z) and the 00z ecm are currently suggesting. the gfs anomaly does support the initial 06z, but its hard to see why the 06z should then go to such extremes in retrogressing it.interestingly the noaa charts are more in line with the ecm, so whilst the intial high is to our west, the noaa 8-14 appears to shift it east
    3 points
  14. With respect, all models need to be looked at and are useful.
    3 points
  15. 10 June 2014 The Flixborough chase. Pictures are in order from getting into position at Flixborough to the South bank of the Humber. Got a raging abscess so excuse me for not going into more detail.
    3 points
  16. I would imagine that estofex would put the east of England into a 15% lightning risk zone and I think this would be about right. Euro 4 on board now too in breaking out showers during the evening across E England, spreading southwards into the night. Ironically, if they do happen and do turn thundery we could be in the unusual position of importing storms across the channel to France during the early hours of Saturday I would not go higher than the 15% risk because of the isolated nature of any cells, reducing the risk of any one location getting lightning. No chance of severe weather due
    2 points
  17. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm heres the fax charts jax sunday looks a shade chilly but dry john
    2 points
  18. Of coarse based on one model and one model run very unlikely to pan out as suggested.Over the last five days the trend is very much settled warm very summery exception east coast only if you base your focus on one model and one run ! But across all models its set pretty fair no heatwave and no below temps average or slightly above.
    2 points
  19. There is no getting away from the fact that he was a bad man but as far as the west was concerned he was mostly keeping the insurgents and extremists in check - he had his knuckles rapped over Kuwait and apart from a little banter about WMD's which it turned out did not exist there was no justifiable reason for Messrs Bush and Blair to set about this second escapade which as much as anything left a power vacuum in the region with people meeting untimely deaths just as much as they did in Sadam's day, the country is reverting to inter religious civil war and the fanatics are having a field day.
    2 points
  20. More people have died since because our action and whole lot more are going to die very shortly. It's okay to have a moral crusade but you've got to weigh up the long term costs. All we have done is changed one war lord to loads of smaller war lords who have done also committed crimes. Knocker I fail to see how increasing the number of weapons available will solve the problem. If the rebels win it won't make a better country. It will just a unstable lawless country. Latest news indicate that Obama maybe having 2nd thoughts about not supporting the Iraqi Government.
    2 points
  21. Our post processing spits out dilute CAPE, and has values of ~700 max (generally 400-500J/kg) in south, central and isol northern UK later tomorrow afternoon, so not directly comparable, but perhaps not as severe as the graphic above posted by Liam. I'd say though there is a great degree of interest (and has been since Monday) in the destabilising effects the over-running trough will have for profiles in south and central UK tomorrow evening. Maybe even Wales with orog uplift late afternoon...As the upper short-wave trundles through cold advection could erode warm noses from the 15C theta-w pl
    2 points
  22. Thanks EES! That is a bit unexpected as I thought we were going to have wall to wall sunshine for the next 8 days or so in London! Whatever happened to Ricky Martin?
    2 points
  23. Things really could go bang. I remember a few setups like these in the past too. East Midlands into Lincolnshire looking like the hot spots. Definitely a trigger there in the form of a convergence zone down the Eastern side of the Country. Seems to have upgraded slightly too. Who'd have picked this one out lol!
    2 points
  24. This has definitely been an extroordinary burst of rapid intensification, especially so since the NHC did not anticipate that given seemingly unfavourable conditions (dry air and a possible increase in wind shear). And with the development of another category four tropical cyclone, some Eastern Pacific hurricane records have already been broken. From the NHC: Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/CRISTINA.shtml?
    2 points
  25. A Solid Central Dense Overcast has formed, as has a pinhole eye. Cristina has rapidly intensified, and now has sustained winds of 145 mph, with a pressure of 940mb. Crazy stuff! NHC forecast a peak of 150mph, just shy of a Cat. 5. Vertical shear remains low. Edit: Sustained winds now at 150mph, with gusts up to 185mph.
    2 points
  26. It's certainly possible that we get a narrow No in September and then we get a result like that in the 2015 General Election. It has historically been accepted by the UK parties that the SNP winning a majority of Scottish Seats in a UK General Election is a mandate for independence.If such a result occurred then I would imagine only Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael would remain of the Scottish Lib Dems at best. So it's entirely conceivable that with such a reduction in Lib Dems, that the SNP would become the third party at a the UK level in terms of seats. Constitutional crises? A YES v
    2 points
  27. A few in here really need to read this thread http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77200-a-guide-to-thunderstorms-in-the-british-isles/ CAPE is not the be all and end all for thunderstorms and without any forcing to trigger development it really does remain 'potential'.
    2 points
  28. Afternoon all, Just catching up with the thread. Lovely little puppy Lloyd, very cute! Well done on your 1000th post Leigh, and Bluebreezer, you really couldn't have picked a better time weather wise for your break to Hastings. I love Hastings, we go every year (infact we have already been once this year so far) Enjoy the rest of your holiday Weather is utterly lovely out there, but a tad too warm being stuck in this office. Am hoping this settled weather stays for Sunday as we are planning on having a family BBQ for Fathers Day... Fingers crossed! Hope all are well SR
    2 points
  29. Ended the tour with an interesting few storms. We sat West of Guymon Oklahoma. They were fun to watch and once the low level jet kicked in they intensified. One point in Guymon we alerted some bikers to the fact that they were riding into danger, for which they were truly grateful. see video. After that we followed and eventually drove through the same storm cells. Got some lovely lighting shots as the bolts passed through a shelf cloud. Also encountered more large hail and gained another dent in the van tomorrow chance on tornadoes in Dallas Fort Worth Tom
    2 points
  30. note the trough and the front incoming that trough though has my interest more on this tomorrow now goodnight
    2 points
  31. I very rarely agree with PP, but this is one occasion when he's got it spot on. All the manoeuvrings, interference (both political and military) and manipulation since 2001/2003 and back beyond that to operation Desert Storm have simply served to destabilise the region, exacerbate anti-Western feelings and promote ethnic/sectarian divisions. Whose ends is all this mess serving?
    2 points
  32. The UK record for September is 35.6C - so it isn't surprising at all.
    2 points
  33. 2 points
  34. There was already a guide written by me about UK thunderstorm set-ups, but it was done some 7 years ago now and I've felt for a while that it needed a re-vamp and updating to make a more comprehensive guide to the processes that produce the various types of thunderstorms we see in the UK. So here it is ... the Netweather guide to thunderstorms in the British Isles .... 15 pages long: Thunderstorms in the British Isles.pdf
    1 point
  35. looks like a typical 'IrememberAtlantic 252 post!!!!!!!!!!!! does look like turning a lot cooler on Saturday, cloudy with drizzly rain and cool wind
    1 point
  36. Thanks JP dry is good and cool this time of year is warm since the last car boot did over a month ago
    1 point
  37. Not looking to good here for tomorrow, low cape at all levels and increasing cloudcover , but at least its the weekend !!.....
    1 point
  38. Yup, could get some moderate values, though not comparable to the storms earlier in the week though! I'm looking at UKPP, which is post processed data to match location better from UKV at this lead time.
    1 point
  39. JMA certainly likes the Greenland High..
    1 point
  40. All hail the mighty MJO, and the subsequent model mayhem it causes. Initiating currently and also the catalyst for the full blown Nino http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html Here is the June solution for phase 6 to which each of the GEFS, UKMO and ECM vary slightly. Notice the lingering Greenland highs on that plot which have also been dancing about on the mid range output. Nothing is ever easy of the UK, always a fly in the ointment somewhere !
    1 point
  41. hi guys thanks sunday still looks dry temps slightly down but not cold except east coastal regions and areas effected by the breezy north east flow a case of cloud and sunny intervals ------------------------------------------------------------------- monday a case of see above talk later guys john
    1 point
  42. Congrats on your 1000th post. I remember the 2009 Thames streamer very well around here.
    1 point
  43. If they say Jo Farrow said we're getting 100 days of snow, I'll protest
    1 point
  44. So glad I have managed (for now at least) get off rotating shifts as they bugger up the body clock no matter the time of year. Read somewhere that early death rates increase for shift workers too. Why some businesses that do shifts do not allow staff on rotation to pick a preferred shift and keep it I will never know, it can be done if you ask your staff and offer it. Had that with one big name where some of us on 6-2 were more than happy to stick with that and some on 2-10 were more than happy with it, and we would technically swap every other week, but no, they said it was "not allowed!",
    1 point
  45. And if I remember correctly it was referring to an evolution from the SE which did briefly materialise but since then the tropospheric pattern has taken a few twists and turns and evolved differently. I just find it odd that someone can presume that a bunch of amateurs know more than very experienced professionals with access to vast amounts of information, on it seems, a regular basis.
    1 point
  46. http://mallemaroking.org/amundsen-sea-embayment/ Is the geothermal heat significant for melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Take Pine Island – which is adjacent to the Thwaites. Pierre Dutrieux and colleagues had this to say in 2013 of the basal melt rates. “At the broad scale [basal], melt rates of up to 100 m/yr occur near the grounding line [where the ice meets the ocean], reducing to 30 m yr/ just 20 km downstream [over the ocean]." So 100 metres per year from the ocean verses 6.3 millimetres per year from the geothermal heat. And the geothermal heat is clearly extremely variable i
    1 point
  47. I just saved this little fella from next doors cat- he was chasing him and tossing him about on the road as I walked back from the pub.. He was cleaning his face with his front feet as he was sat in my hand.
    1 point
  48. This year is starting to climb up the forgettable weatherwise list at least at the local level. Hardly any snow, frost, ice, sleet, hail, thunder and fog and we are closing in on the halfway point of this year. It has been a combination of rain, dry, sunny, cloudy and mild largely. Spring for me was boring, zero variety, the winter towards the end was tedious. National rainfall totals were outstanding but locally nothing particularly special. Have to see what the rest of the year brings but it is on a par with 2002 thus far.
    1 point
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