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Not sure if common knowledge or not...but GM (UKMO) breaks down blocks faster than it should as a function of the statistics that output the verification index..so in short, more often than not, it gets it right, as more often than not, HP does not dominate and GM pushes us back into a zonal pattern consistent with climatological mean. (the model looks better, scores higher, we get it right most of the time). So, if GM keeps block for a long time, this is quite interesting as it is going against its internal revert to zonal flow after 3-4 days...so we can gain good confidence from this. I would be confident in 10 day output at this point in time.This is reflected in UK Outlook for Monday 16 Jun 2014 to Wednesday 25 Jun 2014 on MO website.

ECM ensemble mean has pushed the pattern quite a ways East compared to a few days ago with high pressure being much more influential for the UK. 3 days ago +240 hrs.. today 168 hrs.. GEFS mean looks fairly consistent using the same comparison.

The correct answer is most likely 'neither'

Good morning gang, another lovely day in Zamunda (sorry watched coming to America last night). Anyway I'm going to try to attach a pic of my little Marley puppy.....

The GEM finally backs down this morning and places high pressure in charge throughout its run UKMO GFS Looks like heights will be pulled back westwards a little again. This could be a frustrating time for those in the east as this opens the door for cooler and cloudier north/north easterlies. Again west looks best this morning.

heres how all the models see things on Tuesday afternoon ECM GEM GFS UKMO NAVGEM JMA all have high pressure over head or close to by the west of us. the GFS 500mb for day 11 also has high pressure over us so models want it to stick around also the CPC 6-10 day 500mb forecast goes for high just off to our west which reading the discussion is in agreement with the ECM then the CPC 8-14 day 500mb forecast has the high moved more over top of us which agrees with the GFS 500mb chart but from reading the discussion it is based on a share of the GFS and ECM so must be good agreement coming from the models out to these days interesting times ahead with high pressure looking to take charge will just need to see if it does come off like this and if it does how long will it last. hopefully the rest of summer then we can get the BBQ's out and of course

Some decent CAPE being shown across the eastern side of the country for tomorrow afternoon/evening, which if tapped into could bring some isolated but fairly intense thunderstorms. However, as some have pointed out, we have high pressure sat over the top of us acting like a lid on convection. GFS and WRF still break out storms over the Humber through the late afternoon which transfer southwards with time through Lincolnshire and eventually into East Anglia by late evening and the SE overnight. However, the higher resolution Euro4 model does not show any precipitation breaking out up to its last frame at 6pm tomorrow. The met office pressure charts do show a trough feature heading south tomorrow late, this could be a trigger, along with wind convergence all the way down the East coast into EA. At present I am unconvinced of anything happening tomorrow as I think the cap may hold firm. However, with a lot of sunshine expected and temperatures possibly topping 26c there is a possibility and it'll be worth keeping an eye on subsequent charts and then, perhaps more importantly, surface obs on the day.

http://onenameglobal.com/lightning-in-super-slow-motion-is-stunning/ Just seen this posted on FB from the 9th June in the Netherlands

ECM mean showing the high pressure is going to stick around for a while yet. Wind directions looks to be north/northwest round the top of the high so the best temperatures are to be found along the south coast. Where winds veer more northwest instead of north thats when eastern parts would see temperatures recover. GEM ends on a stunning note with high pressure anchored over the UK similar to July 2013.

As I alluded before it's hard to compare as it outputs dilute CAPE, which is cloud base to cloud top. It's actually scaled to 2km, for rather boring and fiddley reasons. Unfortunately probably cannot post charts, so I won't haha. But interesting to see 3hr ppn output (18z-21z) as well from UKV (have not looked at anything else that's in public domain, maybe other output agrees?) with lincolnshire looking most at risk and isol SE/London by 2100z tomorrow. Considering no dynamic activity tomorrow, these can be assumed convective so further support potential for some storms about!

A good bit of Surface based CAPE on offer throughout tomorrow, the front moving down from the NW could provide some surprises with a trigger along with the already mentioned convergence zone running down the country. Who thought high pressure was boring! Central & eastern areas favoured looking at the convective ppn charts.

Plenty of warm air on offer from UKMO this afternoon what the surface conditions are like is another matter especially for the east with light north to north easterly winds

ok then, the gfs 06z has little support lol. the anomaly charts appear to be on kind of the same wavelength, all suggest high to our west/northwest, and the 8-14 dayer appears to suggest the high will become closer to the uk. which is something most gfs runs (bar the 06z) and the 00z ecm are currently suggesting. the gfs anomaly does support the initial 06z, but its hard to see why the 06z should then go to such extremes in retrogressing it.interestingly the noaa charts are more in line with the ecm, so whilst the intial high is to our west, the noaa 8-14 appears to shift it eastward which agrees with the ecm 00z.note the low anomaly just west of iberia, IF theres an eastward drift of the high, that could allow some hot thundery weather associated with that low up its western flank.

With respect, all models need to be looked at and are useful.

10 June 2014 The Flixborough chase. Pictures are in order from getting into position at Flixborough to the South bank of the Humber. Got a raging abscess so excuse me for not going into more detail.

I would imagine that estofex would put the east of England into a 15% lightning risk zone and I think this would be about right. Euro 4 on board now too in breaking out showers during the evening across E England, spreading southwards into the night. Ironically, if they do happen and do turn thundery we could be in the unusual position of importing storms across the channel to France during the early hours of Saturday I would not go higher than the 15% risk because of the isolated nature of any cells, reducing the risk of any one location getting lightning. No chance of severe weather due to the lack of directional or speed shear at any level on current charts. However, if the CAPE being shown is realised, and the cap is broken I would imagine lightning may well be prevalent for a brief time before cells kill themselves off (i.e. storm updrafts choked by the storm downdrafts).

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm heres the fax charts jax sunday looks a shade chilly but dry john

Of coarse based on one model and one model run very unlikely to pan out as suggested.Over the last five days the trend is very much settled warm very summery exception east coast only if you base your focus on one model and one run ! But across all models its set pretty fair no heatwave and no below temps average or slightly above.

Our post processing spits out dilute CAPE, and has values of ~700 max (generally 400-500J/kg) in south, central and isol northern UK later tomorrow afternoon, so not directly comparable, but perhaps not as severe as the graphic above posted by Liam. I'd say though there is a great degree of interest (and has been since Monday) in the destabilising effects the over-running trough will have for profiles in south and central UK tomorrow evening. Maybe even Wales with orog uplift late afternoon...As the upper short-wave trundles through cold advection could erode warm noses from the 15C theta-w plume below, with isol thunderstorms popping up into the late evening. So CBs not ruled out tomorrow!(also mid-level instability can result in Ac castellanus => lightning! though don't get your hopes up too much as detail is not pinned down and won't be until short lead time)

Thanks EES! That is a bit unexpected as I thought we were going to have wall to wall sunshine for the next 8 days or so in London! Whatever happened to Ricky Martin?

Things really could go bang. I remember a few setups like these in the past too. East Midlands into Lincolnshire looking like the hot spots. Definitely a trigger there in the form of a convergence zone down the Eastern side of the Country. Seems to have upgraded slightly too. Who'd have picked this one out lol!

This has definitely been an extroordinary burst of rapid intensification, especially so since the NHC did not anticipate that given seemingly unfavourable conditions (dry air and a possible increase in wind shear). And with the development of another category four tropical cyclone, some Eastern Pacific hurricane records have already been broken. From the NHC: Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/CRISTINA.shtml?

A Solid Central Dense Overcast has formed, as has a pinhole eye. Cristina has rapidly intensified, and now has sustained winds of 145 mph, with a pressure of 940mb. Crazy stuff! NHC forecast a peak of 150mph, just shy of a Cat. 5. Vertical shear remains low. Edit: Sustained winds now at 150mph, with gusts up to 185mph.

A few in here really need to read this thread http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77200-a-guide-to-thunderstorms-in-the-british-isles/ CAPE is not the be all and end all for thunderstorms and without any forcing to trigger development it really does remain 'potential'.

Afternoon all, Just catching up with the thread. Lovely little puppy Lloyd, very cute! Well done on your 1000th post Leigh, and Bluebreezer, you really couldn't have picked a better time weather wise for your break to Hastings. I love Hastings, we go every year (infact we have already been once this year so far) Enjoy the rest of your holiday Weather is utterly lovely out there, but a tad too warm being stuck in this office. Am hoping this settled weather stays for Sunday as we are planning on having a family BBQ for Fathers Day... Fingers crossed! Hope all are well SR

Ended the tour with an interesting few storms. We sat West of Guymon Oklahoma. They were fun to watch and once the low level jet kicked in they intensified. One point in Guymon we alerted some bikers to the fact that they were riding into danger, for which they were truly grateful. see video. After that we followed and eventually drove through the same storm cells. Got some lovely lighting shots as the bolts passed through a shelf cloud. Also encountered more large hail and gained another dent in the van tomorrow chance on tornadoes in Dallas Fort Worth Tom

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLsJ3oK5iyk

note the trough and the front incoming that trough though has my interest more on this tomorrow now goodnight

The UK record for September is 35.6C - so it isn't surprising at all.

13th September.

Amazing how different folk can be - I'm the exact opposite of all that. Been on nights and was home at 0615, and since then I haven't been back outside or opened a door and all the curtains are firmly shut. The light is poison. Bed soon,where I'll miss all the hideousness that the weather is serving up right now. This time of year is as bad as it gets, of course. And did you know, the 12th August is the first day of summer that the sun is still below the horizon at 6am (when I knock off work!). The next significant date after the solstice. That's why it's called 'the glorious 12th' - ain't got nuthin' to do with blasting grouse or pheasants or whatever to bits.

00:04 - looking NNW - twilight still present. This is about as dark as it gets.

JMA certainly likes the Greenland High..

hi guys thanks sunday still looks dry temps slightly down but not cold except east coastal regions and areas effected by the breezy north east flow a case of cloud and sunny intervals ------------------------------------------------------------------- monday a case of see above talk later guys john

Summer deffo the best but swiftly followed by spring as you've got all the good stuff still to come. Plus spring has a lot of interesting variety and ever increasing light. Autumn - bah, my least favourite. Leaves look nice but otherwise its just decay of everything - light, temperatures, plants, fun, freedom of outdoors etc. Winter beats it as you can get exciting snow and such - plus just after it follows spring!

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm straight to the point now until friday dry and warm not totally sunny as cloud may become an issue - moreso on friday temps warm around 18-19 degrees coasts 25 degrees average elsewhere friday night as above ---------------------------------------------- saturday a windy north east flow so chillier on east-north east coasts rainfall rain around early but should clear around early pm may linger on the far south coasts and south west of our region until later temps anywhere exposed to the east will feel chillier around 15-17 degrees and wind will be noticeable everywhere else 20-21 degrees but still feeling cooler in the wind sun may be restricted except the west and south west of our region who look to have the most once the rain has cleared will be back later with the rest best regards john

Wow, forget about winter right now, what about summer?

friday night might be interesting need more runs though hope your all good john will update later on

So glad I have managed (for now at least) get off rotating shifts as they bugger up the body clock no matter the time of year. Read somewhere that early death rates increase for shift workers too. Why some businesses that do shifts do not allow staff on rotation to pick a preferred shift and keep it I will never know, it can be done if you ask your staff and offer it. Had that with one big name where some of us on 6-2 were more than happy to stick with that and some on 2-10 were more than happy with it, and we would technically swap every other week, but no, they said it was "not allowed!", by whom? there are no laws on such a thing and there was no reason it could not be done, none at all. Anyway they are now not doing so well as a business and most of the staff have left one way or another now.

And if I remember correctly it was referring to an evolution from the SE which did briefly materialise but since then the tropospheric pattern has taken a few twists and turns and evolved differently. I just find it odd that someone can presume that a bunch of amateurs know more than very experienced professionals with access to vast amounts of information, on it seems, a regular basis.

when is the first day after summer that has not recorded 30c?

Surprised late Aug has reached 30C, first half of june and 2nd half Aug surely coolest parts of summer

Looks safe for another year.

I just saved this little fella from next doors cat- he was chasing him and tossing him about on the road as I walked back from the pub.. He was cleaning his face with his front feet as he was sat in my hand.

Now confirmed. We are in a -QBO phase.

It’s a question I’ve often pondered. The mid-way point between the solstice and the equinox is the 6th August (based on 92 days between the 21st June and 21st September). It seems to me that it would be sensible to have a date where the 'old' season ends and the 'new' one starts. On the hills of Scotland, since 1944 we have seen fresh snow in 12 Julys and 11 Augusts. The total number of days when we have seen no snow in July is 12, and 19 in August. The longest run of dates in either of these months without snow ever being known is 7-13th August and 21-27th August. It seems to me, therefore, that any snow before the 7th August could be classified as old season, and any that falls after the 13th is 'new'. Any snow that falls in this period (thus breaking a 70 year trend!) would have to be decided on an individual basis, I fancy.

Prior to then. 2010 wasn't even that special here, only an inch of snow fell, it was just the fact it froze solid for a few days.

Really? None in December 2010, or do you mean prior to then?

This year is starting to climb up the forgettable weatherwise list at least at the local level. Hardly any snow, frost, ice, sleet, hail, thunder and fog and we are closing in on the halfway point of this year. It has been a combination of rain, dry, sunny, cloudy and mild largely. Spring for me was boring, zero variety, the winter towards the end was tedious. National rainfall totals were outstanding but locally nothing particularly special. Have to see what the rest of the year brings but it is on a par with 2002 thus far.

Daily Synoptic Weather Map Analysis of the New England Cold Wave and Snowstorms of 5 to 11 June 1816 http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-90-481-2828-0_8 This chapter can be found on Google Bools. http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=uKvz3ob0SuoC&pg=PA107&lpg=PA107&dq=daily+synoptic+weather+map+analysis+of+the+new+england+cold+wave&source=bl&ots=gHFuTxTIDa&sig=XlDQgh3LNrf4ImRdynbXWiDF6eE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=syaUU96rO4bvOoKjgaAF&ved=0CD0Q6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=daily%20synoptic%20weather%20map%20analysis%20of%20the%20new%20england%20cold%20wave&f=false