Leaderboard

Don't post here much anymore, Just have a good old read through. Thought this however was worthy. Shelf cloud NE of Bury St Edmunds 19:30

It'll look like this by Friday..

Person with head stuck in fence needs urgent help (bottom left) lol!....nice pic

Brilliant ecm this evening!!also plume is still on for the weekend!!

No.. Drizzle, mist and low cloud

hi all tomorrow temps between 13-15 degrees wind a weak south westerly but increasing late pm overall tomorrow looks yuk tomorrow night a breezy variable flow but as shown a north westerly rain will clear overnight temps around 10-12 degrees thursday a breezy westerly flow rain none temps between 16-19 degrees and a better chance of some sun today thursday night winds quite light on a southerly flow rain = none temps not cold but locally could see temps around 7 degrees average around 10 degrees friday a slightly breezy southerly flow rain in the day looks like heavy rain moving in from our south west mid- late afternoon slowly moving north east temps around 18-20 if you get a lot of sun a chance of 22-23 is possible hope your all good john

Just seen the update too. Eventhough these plumes have the tendency to shift East into the near continent suddenly at the last minute, this one feels different with the runs pulling it ever west. I may be wrong because I'm not the plume itself! If I was the plume, It (or I) would've been here in April bringing what we all love. I'm nice like that

The ECM 500mb anomaly for next week has two intense areas of warm air, one centred between Greenland and Canada and the other Scandinavia. A cold flow covers the Atlantic into the UK. The GFS is not dissimilar without so much emphasis on the westerly pattern. This gives rise to somewhat fluid surface synoptics with what I suspect may well be a transient ridge from the Azores high just too the west of the UK by the end of the run, Makes a change from seeing a low stuck there. Temps quite variable but on average a little above normal.

A bit of a battleground between low pressure to the west and high pressure trying to hold on to the east. What results is a typical NW/SE split and remaining warm. sometimes very warm where high pressure gains a foothold.

Early warnings out for thundery downpours on Saturday Issued at: 1204 on Tue 3 Jun 2014 Valid from: 0015 on Sat 7 Jun 2014 Valid to: 2345 on Sat 7 Jun 2014 Thundery downpours are expected to affect parts of England, Wales and southern counties of Scotland during Saturday. The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of these storms, although at this stage the location of the heaviest rainfall is uncertain. Chief Forecaster's assessment Warm, humid air is likely to be pulled northwards from France late on Friday and during Saturday. Within this airmass, there is an increasing likelihood that heavy, thundery showers will break out. It is likely that many places within the current broad warning area will miss the worst of the storms; over the next few days it may be possible to focus on the areas most at risk. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402095600&regionName=uk The only areas NOT under the warning currently are Orkney & Shetland Highlands & Eilean Siar Grampian Central, Tayside & Fife Northern Ireland

Hmm this mornings runs so far might make people start to doubt things beyond this weekend. I think giving it a few more runs might be needed here as the GFS seems to be a little lost and trying to find the right pattern going forward. The one big difference is the development of a second wave of warm air forecast for next Monday, this wasn't shown at all on the previous runs, suggesting that trough is going to hang around to the west of us for a bit longer than the GFS previously showed. Two thundery events in the space of 3 days? Not too bad but needs watching for the usual corrections east/west. Beyond that, well it's upstream developments again here. The GFS and GEM both eventually push the Atlantic low north east and bring in a more mobile westerly pattern with average temperatures. The key trigger to reversing this was show on last nights ECM. If the upstream low manages to phase with the low near the UK, that low should barrel back further into the Atlantic allowing heights to build again near the UK and into Europe. If in the GFS case the upstream low gets cut off then we simply can't get this to occur. Though again the American models looks rather progressive with their solution. All eyes on the ECM to see whether it can show some consistency.

It's interesting that some people get all excited because some part of the world is showing, in their opinion, opposite to what you expect under a global warming scenario. Other people get excited because there are records being broken (in this case, Antarctic sea ice extent) and they would like to understand why and put it into context with what else they see. Scientists are generally the people in the latter category. Any idea what the first category is? There are a number of publications out there that go at least part way to explaining why Antarctic sea ice is expanding rather than shrinking, and why climate models are not able to sufficiently capture all the cryospheric processes that make Antarctica quite unique. People within this forum have pointed to a few of them. If you don't believe these publications then publish your own findings. If you are going to make comments on scientific matters then at least try to read some scientific papers. Otherwise your ignorance is showing just a little.

It will probably be the usual fist shaking across the North Sea with mass shouts of "Damn you Belgium!!!"

Well according to the Daily Express, we can expect cricket ball sized hail, deadly lightining strikes, tornadoes, flash flooding, 32c heat and hell fire at the weekend. Unless it all drifts east, then it'll be more drizzle!

Quite unusual synoptics developing at present - a cut off slow moving trough surrounding by strong heights seemingly stuck in situ with nowhere to go... very odd, all a symptom of a very sluggish Jetstream. It makes forecasting very difficult. What has been notable so far this year is the propensity for any emerging cool/cold set up relative to the time of year quickly being eradicated and trounced by warmer synoptics - often a very fine line, and once again the end of this week will see such a fine line balanced in favour of the warmer air - indeed if the jet had a bit more fire power we would very likely be seeing a cool/cold outlook - tomorrow is a case in point with whole country on the cold side of the trough and projected low maxima for the time of year.

Set your alarm for 0330 and you can have even more of it.

Current outlook looks unsettled for the foreseeable almost nationwide. Looks like its gonna get warm and muggy for the weekend but not dry. Certainly no sign of any sustained dry heatwave style weather happening anytime soon. Very much a continuation of showers or longer spells of rain, with short drier interludes in between.

GFS 06z has pressure starting to build from day 8

It's looking like the plume model'd over the past few days will only be glancing the far S/E of the UK around the 9th before retreating East as the Atlantic pushes through once again by the 11th/12th, Bringing more unsettled wet weather from the West, We may see a N/S split with more settled weather in the far South.

the updated fax charts are in for friday and saturday showing them only and will comment on them when they get to 72hrs friday saturday there is a stormy potential with these but want them closer range best regards all john

hi all tonight http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ the odd shower but mainly dry and feeling humid tonight ------------------------------------------------------------------------ tomorrow a weak westerly flow but may get a shade breezy to the south coasts in the afternoon rainfall looks dry am by afternoon looks like widespread showers but not heavy except the far north of our region there will of course be local areas who miss the rain altogether later on there is a chance we could see some sunny spells temps anywhere between 17-20 maybe a tad higher if you get a long period of sun ---------------------------------------------------------- tomorrrow night winds south westerly and light but may be a shade breezy on the coasts rain from midnight heavy rain moving in from the south west moving north east looks pretty heavy and a rumble or 2 is possible looks to effect all by 8am could be a chance of some localised floods here today temps not cold around 13 degrees ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- wednesday a south westerly flow and in the afternoon could get quite windy in the afternoon for all southern and eastern coastal regions could also effect more inland when you are getting showers rain at 2pm moderate rain looks to effect all but the heavier stuff easing but still effecting the far north of our region temps around 14-15 degrees but wont feel it here comes a yuk ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- wednesday night all still under a breezy westerly flow rainfall rain around effecting most and still some heavier bursts most heavier stuff likely to the north of london temps around 12 degrees -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- thursday will update this properly tomorrow however looks like am showers will clear to leave a mainly dry day temps somewhere around 18-20 degrees anyway be back tomorrow nite all

Still a ways off is the weekend. Mild evening here, dry and calm, all good there. Starting to feel this thread is too quiet now some of the posters have left, the added banter is really missed (even if it did involve pants on the line). Anyway looks like a calm night ahead weather wise until the next system moves in.

Big Big day coming up, all models all over the place at the moment, will decide in the morning and see where that warm front has meandered to, some say SD/NE Border others further south, one thing is for sure it could be a very big day with all parameters maxed out. Paul S

saturday looks good for storms but not doing this yet humid too ----------------------------------------------------------------- sunday actually looks dry and warm with a risk of pm thunderstorms again will do these properly as they get into 72 hr timespan regards john

Interesting to hear the words disrupting and thunderstorms mentioned together on the national BBC forecast tonight....

Interesting evening's charts. GFS op returns to yesterday's pattern - between t72-t120, two Atlantic lows phase, heights weaker to the north - not as hot in the short term, but this allows the lows to clear north and a pattern change, with decent HP build later on. ECM keeps better heights to the north, the first low hence gets cut-off and acts as a big sucking device from the south - result, a very warm few days in the SE starting on Friday. Two ultimate destinations from the ECM - the favoured one, I feel, is to keep low heights near to the UK and no prolonged settled weather. An alternative, though, could be that the Atlantic lows simply stay in situ for longer to our SW - we could eventually get a direct hit from a plume if that happens, in which case we might have to dust off the 90F mark on the thermometre before long. All in all, lots of interest as we go into proper summer time.

Actually within the time frame of my previous post Weds-Friday there are no pulses of warm air with the ECM.. The last one is on the Tuesday affecting the east and mainly south east.

Torrential rain here in Cottingham/Hull for the last half hour, things are starting to flood.

This has to be one of the most shocking examples of sensationalist journalism I've ever ready...all I can say is thank heavens for Paul Michaelwaite standing firm for the credibility of Netweather :yahoo:Needless to say now that MetO have got their yellow crayon out we are doomed...doomed!!!

Ties in with the thoughts of the Beeb then. It seems not so laughable to me, quite possibly they are seriously onto something there with regards to a plume after a plume event with always the warmest air effecting the far East and Southeast. I do hope its not a total rainfest, a few sunny days and a Thundery breakdown would suit my particular situation.

Stream is live btw, currently it's not the most amazing view (a brick wall), but I'm sure it'll improve soon http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

The ecm is suggesting plume after plume from Friday To Tuesday next week.

Grey, grey, grey, boring, dull, wet, grey, dull, grey, dull, wet, dull, dull, grey - all of them humid. Bah.

10c upper temperatures edging into the SE so possibly a very warm day in store on Monday. Sunday not looking too bad either with high pressure keeping things more settled the further east you go. Lets see what happens from here.

Blimey is it nearly Wimbledon time already? It seems the older I'm getting the years are flying by more quickly.

Its a good one and a half months to go before i notice the sun setting any earlier so lots of time to enjoy the light.

Been here way to many times... Would not even begin to get any hopes up of storms yet... Notice the experts go quite till nearer the time... They know they know

Ah we'll be waiting a long time then if we're waiting for BT

Not so good, hopefully the rain won't be to much of an impact, some of the models have this storm making it into the Gulf of Mexico

This isn't strictly true - there have been many times where significant convective potential, high temperatures and very high dew points have resulted in nothing for us in the ol' Garden of England. Indeed, a concern I have for Friday/Sat, as far as imports are concerned, is a lack of precip development over N/W France - it is true developments are shown along the coastal areas which spread NE but certainly nothing which indicates any form of MCS feature, which traditionally are the 'allnighters'. Interestingly the wind profiles on GFS do suggest some form of surface low feature running across N France late Friday/early Saturday, but this stays over the continent and could serve only to keep any French stuff continent bound. IMO, notwithstanding the fact that a lot could change model wise between now and then, we have got a potentially fairly active CF swinging eastwards from the atlantic during this period, which could in all likelihood entail some short wave troughs/atmospheric disturbances ahead of it to give some more organised thundery outbreaks. If however we are relying just on the front then as we have seen time and again this could get messy with frontal mess and the like. I'm not ruling anything in or out at the moment and actually on balance things do look quite promising. But I'm struggling to see evidence right now of all night banging storms moving up from France

My camera detected (raindrop) movement and emailed me this, even though I know how light it is very early I still did a double take.

The ECM ops anomaly situation for next week has the strong heights south of Greenland stretching to the warm air east of the UK which plunges down to central Europe. This leaves the large cold pool still in the western Atlantic. This cooler air continues to influence the UK in a somewhat complex fashion with the very warm air in Europe briefly edging a tad closer but eventually moving further south leaving the UK with average temps.

Well a chart like that doesn't bring any confidence going forward 2 cut off Atlantic lows. The models are notoriously terrible at resolving these. Another plume for the east Interestingly the ECM shows that the 10C isotherm never leaves the south east. So East Anglia and some southern counties could do rather well out of this. But again confidence looks very low.

Morning all, A quick look at the weekend from GFS. The upper anomaly is dominated by deep low west of the UK with a tentacle from the Scandinavian high stretching into Europe. The surface analysis Friday though Sunday. Friday 12z has a low 984mb 400 miles WSW of southern Ireland with associated front curving around western Ireland. The UK in a light SE wind with rain just touching Cornwall. Saturday the low has edged closer and the front is about east central over the UK with rain in the eastern half with little or no wind. Sunday the low slowly filling but becoming a more complex system with a section NW of Scotland with the remains of the trough bringing wet weather to N. Scotland and northern and western Ireland. A small high pressure cell is centred over Belgium bringing an area SE of a line Cornwall to Yorkshire under it’s influence. Mainly dry with little convective activity except showers in the north west.

heres an interesting bit from the BBC about the UKMET doing model simulations for a LAKI style eruption http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27239321

You'll end up on the day with 2.5j/kg and +8 LI. Meanwhile, some hamlet in Belgium or The Netherlands will be getting the fruits of your 2500j/kg cape and -8 LI.

Pub run is sweet. I'd take that Saturday, mid-high twenty maxima with big thunderstorm potential. Improvement on yesterday as we now are getting the +16C isotherm into the UK, which was the target I was looking for to get thing to really kick off.

Winter 13-14 was as abnormal as December 2010 or Jan 1963. The wettest winter on record, a record low number of frosts, the highest low daily CET, and above all the most cyclonic January followed by the most cyclonic Feb (and any month). Not normal. Something like 1993-4 or 2000-1 is a normal winter, a mix of mild and cold, dry and wet.

God I do love the long light evenings ! It just makes you feel more alive and happy!! Same with the light mornings. Makes the commute much more bearable! Meanwhile, the temperature and weather is irrelevant to the solstice etc, our warmest weather on average happens in august, the same way as our coldest weather happens in February. In France the sun goes down before 9, even on the solstice! That's where I'll be to witness it this year, hopefully with some cracking French thunderstorms