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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/05/14 in all areas

  1. My thoughts are backed up by the Meto update today though. It would be wrong for me to say something other than what is shown when taking all models and ensembles as a percentage likelihood and that is why I was not surprised by the update from UKMO today.
    6 points
  2. Evening All ........................................... Tonight Relatively mild, cooler further inland. Between 6-10c, May speaking average. Dry until the early hours, when a band of rain sweeps east engulfing the whole of our region Spiralling depression, incoming from the Atlantic. Windy ol night to our West, will be breezy here as well. ........................................... Tomorrow Saturday Starting on a wet note, heavy persistent rain inbound for most of the day. ........................................... Maxima for Saturday 16-18c a muggy day - note the continent starting to warm up. This bodes well for later on. CAPE looks very limited tomorrow a bid downgrade from GFS 12z Ireland still in with a chance Reminds me of last Winter, the chase for Cold was always on the Horizon The forecast mentioned Thundery showers, well on that bases of ^ Looks unlikely ........................................... (Website went extremely buggy) Saturday Evening Quite tight isobars, therefore some strong gusts, coast will bear the brunt of the Strong winds Nothing damaging, but certainly windy nonetheless ^ Very reminiscent of Winter 2013/2014... Depressions galore. ........................................... Enjoy your weekend
    4 points
  3. Caught this bad boy moving just to my south. I'm just north of the city.
    4 points
  4. THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis A large low pressure system/area of low geopotential heights covers the NE Atlantic and N Sea, with a broad belt of upper westerlies covering northern Europe, with a 100knt+ westerly jet lying across southern Britain. A wave in this jet stream will move quickly east across central and northern Britain today, bringing a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms here today. ... N IRELAND, SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, N WALES, MIDLANDS, LINCS, E ANGLIA ... Well modified polar maritime airmass, to the north of the jet stream over southern Britain, will be readily unstable this morning bringing heavy showers west to east accompanied by hail and isolated lightning. Probabilities of thundestorms increasing through the day across the above areas as surface temperatures rise in response to sunny spells and approaching wave increases forced ascent of moist maritime airmass. Close proximity of jet stream over N Wales, N England through to E Anglia will see strongest vertical shear here, with any storms forming here likely organising into fast-moving multicell or bowing line segments capable of producing hail up to 1 to 2cm in diameter along with squally strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall leading to localised flooding. Increasing low-level shear indicated with approach of wave suggests the odd isolated short-lived tornado can't be ruled out too. Full forecast can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
    4 points
  5. Hand picked audience, pre scripted questions and orchastrated responses....come on Nick, you know how it works. The establishment is starting to close ranks now, the media attacks are increasing and Farage was deliberately set up for a rough ride last night. A typical dirty tricks campaign is now full underway and it will continue to ramp up a across the next fortnight, but in the case of UKIP the plan could backfire very badly. 'What doesn't kill you makes you stronger' may well prove to be very apt in their case, because like it or not they are stricking a cord with a very large section of society, many of whom are not really bothered what their other policies are...or indeed if they even have any! That's something that is giving the Westminster elite a lot of sleepless nights.
    4 points
  6. After yesterday's disappointment, which I half expected, I am not going to go into detail today. However, although GFS is showing less CAPE than for yesterday the WRF are more on-board today and the fact that we may actually get some sunshine means that CAPE is more likely to be realised. Any chances are earlier on in the day with a ridge killing off any showers from the west, restricting chances to the far east of the country by the afternoon. Once more, where storms develop, they could become organised and bring with them the risk of reasonable sized hail, gusty winds and tornadoes. Rather than post multiple charts I will just post my thoughts on today's risk area. The yellow area is for general heavy showers and the slight risk of a weak thunderstorm up to around 12-2pm before showers start dying out from the west. The red area is where any stronger storms are likely up to around 3-5pm with Norfolk, Suffolk and Lincolnshire at the highest risk of all.
    4 points
  7. Well until the main models get some sort of conformity and grip regarding the upper air anomaly we will continue to see this changing surface analysis. The last two runs of the GFS is a good example of just one model. So regarding the UK for the next weekend I'm joining JH on the fence.
    3 points
  8. I can see rising columns to my north and south. The most frustrating thing is my view to the west is completely blocked. I need to get to higher ground, which in Norfolk is a problem. To the north: To the south:
    3 points
  9. Getting darker, but I don't hold high hopes. Temps have taken a small tumble.
    3 points
  10. Morning all... And 'BIG' all!....To fellow weather peeps in the Wales/SW threads Lets start by saying, i hope we have some interesting times ahead this Summer, i'm sure the SW will have Bragging rights when it comes to how much sun we have I remember last year, Blizzy kept popping into the Midlands thread saying how lovely it was in Falmouth (wall to wall) when we had cloud cover Looking forward to reaching the magical 25c mark, then on to 30c and yes some good old thunder & lightning!! Love a good break down me! then back on to wall to wall Sunshine.. Happy Days After early showers... expecting more showers as the day progresses...Currently 12.9 c.
    3 points
  11. I lost interest in politics a while ago, so if someone can tell me in a nutshell who's gonna keep the bloody foreigners out, it'll be they who gets my vote. I've had enough of increasingly having to try to understand an alien language in my native country. Wandering around even somewhere like the supermarket and catching snippets of conversion from groups of people, reveal the majority of them to be either foreign/guys who 'bat for the other side', and jobless yoofs spending my tax money on crappy lager then go on to terrorise the neighborhood. Great Britain? Crate Britain, more like. That 'PC' enough for ya?
    3 points
  12. Morning all, Woke up to wall to wall sunshine in Barnehurst, get to work and it's cloudy and really quite windy out there. I'm full of cold so roll on 4.30pm where I can go home and get some rest! Have a good day SR
    3 points
  13. I'd take a warm, wet summer in all honesty- as long as it wasn't incessantly wet......given the wet winter 2013/14 it surely increases the chances of a (cold) dry winter The -QBO should, in theory, give this a helping hand also. All fits together very nicely with the potentially developing el Nino. From Paul Hudson's blog posted on the ENSO thread... ''Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean.During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK was exceptionally cold'' Then again when does the weather ever follow the form guide!
    3 points
  14. From the acle straight. Cell to the north. Convection still present, surface temps still pretty hot. Edit: now under a moderate convective shower at present in Norwich NR2 lol
    2 points
  15. They missed Ipswich. Curses! Aww, so sorry, Jax . Sad indeed. Poor little thing.
    2 points
  16. Off to Norway on a cruise so I may finally see some snow after all!
    2 points
  17. I'm no expert by any stretch but there is a lot of large cumulus building here, some big-ish tops that seem like they're trying to rise. Only getting a few mins of sun here and there though. Anyone seen anything interesting?
    2 points
  18. GFS 06z goes from high pressure to a northerly in 24 hours GEM on the other hand goes for very warm and humid conditions instead of a northerly The met office continue to suggest a breakdown through the latter part of next weekend and into the following week with more unsettled and cooler conditions arriving similar to what GFS and ECM are showing
    2 points
  19. GFS 6z once again looking good. The 0z brought cooler uppers down from the northeast next week whereas the 6z has things turning warmer sooner with high pressure centred over SW England next Thursday. It may not last all that long but some summery conditions are approaching. An almost perfect position of high pressure for warmth and light winds.
    2 points
  20. I expect a better sounding update from the met office based on the latest model runs, yesterday's was disappointing compared to the previous day, today's should be more summery again...fingers crossed :-)
    2 points
  21. Yes a few more days of unsettled weather to come before a noticeable improvement by mid week seems likely based on the latest runs. Looking at the fax for Monday we can see the weekend's low, now approaching, will have cleared through and we are left with a showery westerly but we can see the next low waiting in the wings to come through on Tuesday.Last nights fax for Tuesday had this one moving in but the overnight runs now hold it back in the Atlantic to allow pressure to build towards the UK. Monday The Azores high then builds in nicely across the UK bringing us all some warmer and sunnier conditions which should last into the weekend. Next Saturdays mean output of the ECM/GFS Op runs show a solid UK High. so we should get at least a few days of decent weather from the middle of next week into the weekend.
    2 points
  22. No worries, once I've got my horrendous exam out of the way this afternoon and completed drowning my sorrows this evening, I'll put a more comprehensive explanation into the learners area, and how each trigger can act as such
    2 points
  23. Bright sunshine but breezy here this morning with just some cumulus floating around. From Nick's forecast and the charts I have seen I look to be in a decent spot today with being just north of the upper jet stream and within the risk area. I may head slightly east more towards Nottinghamshire/Lincolnshire shortly anyhow as I would think anything that does develop would have more chance of being thundery further east.
    2 points
  24. Wonderful reading the posts from the same old political 'establishment' on here. Yes, on here. A number of posters seem to think 'we' shouldnt be looking at another political party, instead of relying on the tired Cons, the Limp Dems and the completely useless Labour party. If UKIP do establish a real foothold i can see them gaining seats in parts of the rural South West, and not the Limp Dems (under Alexander) as one poster wrote earlier.
    2 points
  25. This is more like it from UKMO it started its move to ECM yesterday afternoon and this morning its fully on board now with all of the UK becoming settled and pleasantly warm high teens to low 20's is more than good enough for me its only late May after all ECM and UKMO now pretty much in agreement at t144 So after some uncertainty it looks like ECM was on the money after all
    2 points
  26. Good morning all Im spoilt for choice, as IOW is in both 4 & 5 Im in 4, or is it 5, im confused, bit like the weather, cant make up its mind what to do Damp cloudy Showers Temp at 11.9c and rising Pressure 1010.9mb (rising 0.8mb.hr) Humidity 92%
    2 points
  27. Me too... in Korea.
    2 points
  28. Its great that I am now in the same region whether I am in Falmouth or at home in the Midlands. Cheers to the South West portion of the country. :lol:
    2 points
  29. We've annexed the north of England, superb :lol: It has been an ok day today after the cold wet night last night. Nothing hot on the horizon at the moment, surely the year without winter will not also include no summer?
    2 points
  30. Still looking good for chase day 1 Ian's heading out to the USA today so that'll be the full quota of staff members out there, then the first guests are arriving on Friday prior to the first official day of the chase on Saturday. Sunday is likely to be the first chase day.. For the 4 chase virgins on the team it could be a jaw dropping start!!
    2 points
  31. Estofex has me under a level 1 tomorrow for weak tornadoes and scattered thunderstorms
    1 point
  32. It does look like a fleeting glance of high pressure from the ecm, gfs shows more in the way of a more longer settled spell,, allbeit a quick change to more unsettled weather. Im really not buying anything as to a long period of high pressure, dispite the hype.....
    1 point
  33. The first signs of Cs on the western horizon above a lower layer of Cu. A windy day today with short blustery showers; a gust of 51 mph shortly before midday.
    1 point
  34. I'm so very sorry to hear this JaxSending you and your other cockatiel huge hugsxxx Edit:mainly sunny day with some odd "lively breezes" this moming.All now quiet and calm....pending the next weather front moving in!xxx
    1 point
  35. There will be once the chase starts
    1 point
  36. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Xx3Oknv60I
    1 point
  37. It's not the immigrants fault for wanting a better life, I am sure if we lived in some poverty stricken country in Africa or a under performing Eastern European country we would want a better life too. Its wholeheartedly the decision makers fault for letting so many in.
    1 point
  38. It all depends how you interpret Gibby's post, but I agree with his words to be honest. The models have so far more repeatedly shown low pressure to gradually push the High pressure away after a few days, rather than have it sat in place for longer, be it FI or not. That to me is a strong trend at this time. This may well shift in favour of longer last high pressure in a day or two...who knows. I certainly do not think Gibby is calling anything at this stage - he is just explaining the likey outcome if it was to go that way.
    1 point
  39. Talking of interesting times ahead, this time next week is looking fine with HP slap bang over us and temps widely into the 20's.... FINGERS CROSSED
    1 point
  40. I find it hilarious that people are saying they'll vote UKIP as a vote against the establishment.
    1 point
  41. Yep it's still looking very good just outside the reliable timeframe, hoping for a better met office update today. :-)
    1 point
  42. ^^^ I agree with the retrogression doubt. There is a cluster going with that scenario in the GEFS but it is only about 25%-33%. The spread at D10 sums it up: Lots of uncertainty...again. ECM shows us a much flatter pattern in week 2 this morning but with the jet towards N.Scotland not a bad run for the south with mostly settled conditions from D6-D9, before the pattern sinks south. However the last three runs have had different solutions and I suspect that there remains a lot of spread in the ECM ensembles as well. GEM remains similar to the ECM but with the initial pressure rise not so far north so more unsettled earlier and again by D8 the jets slips south to cover the whole UK by D9. As the London ens show a pressure rise is seemingly incoming but transient in nature and how it breaks down to yet be clarified:
    1 point
  43. It still looks like warming up and settling down beyond the middle of next week, at least for the south of the uk. In the meantime it will remain unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain, some heavy with thunder but sunny periods too, temperatures sliding to just below average for a time but then recovering to just above by later next week. Nothing has changed really, the reliable timeframe is not so good but beyond looks much better the further south you are.
    1 point
  44. The regons aren't necessarily about the similarity in weather but they are relatively close together, and an opportunity to discuss things within a mini-community as opposed to nationally. As an example, Scotland has an incredibly varied climate, but that is also a single region
    1 point
  45. You can have favourable CAPE and LI, but without a "trigger" then nothing will happen. A trigger in this case would be surface heating in order to enable air parcels to ascend (i.e. convection). But seeing as it's cloudy, this surface heating isn't really happening. The atmosphere is unstable, but we need something to kick-start that instability so-to-speak. Other forms of triggers can be convergence zones (where opposing winds meet or converge, forcing air upwards) or a frontal boundary to provide that lift. Even sea breezes can act as a sufficient boundary. In short, favourable CAPE and/or LI values don't automatically mean thunderstorms are going to occur. Over the weekend (have an exam tomorrow...) I'll add a more extended and full explanation in the learners area.
    1 point
  46. A post based on pure assumption and ignorance, words also associated with racism. Oh the irony. Simply put, not everyone who votes for UKIP are racist, like pretty much every other situation. Things are rarely ever black and white.
    1 point
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