Leaderboard

I really like seeing your postings. You're a talented person, Tamara, and you're one of the people that makes reading this thread more than worthwhile - not disparaging other contributors, but Tamara helps elevate this thread to a much higher level than much on this site (and any other regional thread) JP is good too! We are blessed here!

Slightly chilly Had a lovely evening at the cricket club helping with the youth coaching tonight, vivid green new season grass, newly painted sightscreens set against darkening skies and a cold north easterly forcing us old parent types to wrap up, huddle together and rely on a few beers/wines to keep us going as the drizzle tried to push us about. It was a joy to see boys and girls of all ages and talents trying their best, loving being outdoors, having fun on a cold Spring evening and all walking back towards the clubhouse happy and glowing, chatting to their friends, embracing the game. So, weather, in summary: Mainly dull. Hopefully nothing controversial in what I've said - with any luck everyone's still awake despite my postings..... Finally, so long and thanks for all the fun. AS AS

This is a beaut of a sat!!! Don't think I have seen so many different cloud types in one grab! Probs got every single type here!

Prospects for the Bank Holiday itself throughout our region look quite clear cut with plenty of fine dry weather to be had with pleasantly warm sunshine by day and chilly night-times and some very early morning frosts likely most especially on Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, as the ridge responsible for the fine weather settles across us and then just to the east of the region as we head towards Monday, overnight temperatures will be less cold with frost much less likely and also day time temperatures rising a little further as the cooler upper temperatures that arrive tomorrow (the chilliest day of all) continue to moderate upwards. Its the return from the Bank Holiday where the next changes become apparent as High pressure by this time is blocking to the east and north east of the UK and an upper trough sits just to the west of Iceland. There is very good agreement in the ECM EPS ensemble maps for this overall atlantic and european pressure pattern as just described. Attempted inroads from the atlantic clearly has support, but what defines how changeable and rather more unsettled our region becomes is the orientation of the airstream between the two main features to our NW and E/NE. If verified, the positively tilted trough solutions shown on some of the maps indicate that fronts would arrive more progressively eastwards through Tuesday and into Wednesday, whilst the more negative solutions with the fronts undercutting the reidging to the NE would advance slower as the troughing disrupts SE'wards. Much as many of us would be hoping in winter for snow potential in this set-up where a block exists to the NE I think at this stage the consensus bet is for any rain band not to arrive till late on Tuesday and indeed many southern and eastern-most parts of the region could well get away with another completely dry and fine day. Thereafter, a probable NW/SW split across the UK means that our region is likely to see the best of drier weather interludes and spells of sunshine and with the best temperatures as well. So, not completely settled and we best expect at least some rain and showers at times, although we could get lucky here anyway with the rain bands arriving overnight and giving us some decent days outdoors. Fairly traditionally average UK Spring fare sums it up all in all Recent days have seen some more picture taking during the best of the weather. Monday provided this in NW Kent and the ducks on the pond at Chislehurst Common seemed to agree as well. However, much as the case in the New Forest last week, there was no wildlife food available on offer from me, even though this feathered variety were happy to (very subtely) dry dock themselves right in front of me Then, almost immediately afterwards, the main family artilleries arrived with their lovely little offspring Harder still not to be able to offer these little cuties anything. Then it was farewell to the ducks A quick tree hug and then a (resisted) temptation to risk strolling across a very busy and posh golf course

wednesday long way out and subject to change but looks wet with a chilly north west wind thats my lot tonight have a good weekend goodnight all :lazy:

tuesday a breezy west-north west wind note the trough on the fax dependant on temps etc these may be stormy going to be a close call wednesday to follow

Nothing is "nailed on" look how this "colder spell" watered down and next weeks settled spell also vanished with GFS the first to pick this up on either Tuesday or Wednesday t144 shows the different solutions on offer from all the models All do show low pressure near by but what they can't agree on yet is where the high to our south will end up, GEM sends it to the UK whilst ECM takes it to northern France, whilst GFS and UKMO have it in a similar position over western France, Spain and Portugal until they firm up on where it will end up nothing is certain things can and do change very quickly in the world of weather

Evening all So-so day here today, been cloudy for the best part, but the clouds did part a little late afternoon / early evening to give some welcome brightness. Off topic (but quite funny). We bought our boys two hamsters today.... One named humpty, one named dumpty. The boys were so happy and wanted to hold them, and play with them. I said to wait a few hours so they could get use to their new surroundings and the noise my children were making! After constant pressure from a 4 and 6 year old I said okay I'll get one out of the cage..... After about 10 mins of trying to catch one I finally did. I held it in my hands, then it bloody bit me, causing my finger to bleed, I dropped it now can't find it. It's been 1 hour now. The kids won't go to bed now and as my 6 year old puts it " he is scared for his life, it might get me in the night and eat me" got a feeling tonight's going to be a very long night.... And to top it off, the kids now hate the hamsters and want to send them back for biting me....

Nothing warm and settled on ECM tonight im afraid. Cool and wet all the way through as far as im reading it:

Hi all Hope your all well Short one for now :-) What a miserable day Thanks for the kind comments Back later John

Don't this bad boy look good for 17th May, it's going to change but oh well;)

Gavin Schmidt, supermodeller: the emergent patterns of climate change http://hot-topic.co.nz/gavin-schmidt-supermodeller-the-emergent-patterns-of-climate-change/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+co%2FRbRF+%28Hot+Topic%29

Still forecasting upwards of 2 feet of snow here for the next 3 days. If so I will endeavour to bore you all with lots of pics :-)

JP its good to have you back to full strength after being away. I sometimes have no idea what u have posted but it forces me to learn so thank you but often you post in a great, easy to read way....a very valuable asset - thank you :-) As the SE turns colder, so it does here. I will post in the North American thread if we do get the 2 feet of snow forecast. Meanwhile enjoy the cold weather in the SE and keep the pictures coming..... :-)

TUESDAY still warm and sunny tuesday night- wednesday may be interesting though

Things are looking promising and I am getting my bags ready. I know its 20 days off me flying out but I got more dollars today Golden Arches , BKs , Braums or a Subway 12" spicey Italian. bring it on Tom

tomorrow a breezy north east flow drizzly rain early clearing all by around lunchtime a slim chance of the odd shower being driven in from the north sea but it is slim temps around 12-14 degrees lower if you keep cloud locally a shade higher if you dont ----------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night a very weak north east flow no rain temps cold reckon these are too high 0-4 degrees frost and fog likely --------------------------------------------------------------------- saturday still a weak north easterly rain = nil temps between 12-14 degrees maybe a shade lower east coastal regions ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- saturday night a variable flow but east-north east likely rain = nil temps around 3-5 degrees and a local frost is still possible sunday not doing for now that front to our north is getting a little close for comfort so will do that tomorrow

Yes, I noticed there was still light in the sky at 9.30 tonight as the cloud cleared,when glancing out of the window. Lovely to see. Enjoy it while we can I say!

Night JP and thanks as always for your updates and forecasts

BAWAAHAHAHAHaahhaha! Still dark (and dry with a light breeze and some cloud)

damn it!, I've used that very line before so I can't delete your post and ban you for all eternity for being off topic....a thousand curses Jax!!

Hamsters... ...love em (on toast, ok kidding), they are fantastic but they need to be caged for a few weeks just to get used to the surroundings, then you can introduce them slowly (I find the walk-about balls quite good) and talkign to them and hand contact in the cage for a while also helps, no grabbing, just show them your there and work up to touching, then holding (all still in the cage) and then after a couple of months your ready for holding. mine use to sit on my shoulder in the summer whilst I sat on the door step reading a book in the evening sunshine. They only bite if scared or too young to be out. Have had four Syrians (the bigger ones) and had no problems with them. If you want any help (except catching them) give me a PM Ohhh weather, yes, yes, it is dry and dark (is dark counted?)

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run looks pretty unsettled by the end of the BH weekend, at least for the north & west but the southeast looks fine and warm with the residue of high pressure lingering with temperatures around 19 celsius but rather cooler for the cloudy and rainy areas to the northwest. By tuesday it looks unsettled for all areas as an atlantic trough pushes eastwards and really that is the story for the rest of next week, some ebb and flow of the PFJ as it ripples north and south, the south of england could have occasional ridging from the higher pressure across mainland europe bringing some decent fine and warm spells between the frontal systems but it has to be said, the north and west looks distinctly unsettled next week, indeed, the far north / northwest will have some rain later tomorrow and throughout sunday and monday,

Hello all, hope you all have a peaceful bank holiday long weekend.....Just got home from work, it's been grey & pretty grim over the home counties so glad to be back home....The good news is that I've just looked at the living room clock and declare that it's Speckled Hen O'Clock....cheers!

Trip to the local health centre for a tetanus injection in the morning on the cards then Leigh? Today's been mostly grey here. I did manage a quick trip out to the Chilterns to go for a walk with a friend and their dog. The weather was slightly less grey, but the signs of spring - birdsong, lambs, trees coming into leaf, and a meadow full of spring flowers made it seem much better than it was. And I heard my first cuckoo of the year.

Please try and stick to Model Discussion, Thanks. There is always this thread for moaning or banter http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/

Nothing is "nailed on" as far as the Models are concerned. With some quite mixed and flamboyant signals as of late.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm still looks fine sunday has a warm front over us which should be cancelled out by high pressure probably attract more cloud though monday still looks fine too but maybe worth keeping an eye on these fronts for the far north of our region looks warm too

Indeed just a shame its 384 hours away and unlikely to verify but none the less the first true sign of summer from GFS Back to the reliable and unsettled best sums it up from Tuesday though Wednesday could offer something drier for a time from the west before more spells of rain push in for Thursday

If you're a storm fan, GFS is modelling some very treating charts! It's popped up a fair few times now too, and it spotted this cooler period off a long way also. Interesting model watching coming as we head towards summer.

Overcast and cool at work in Dartford. Very much looking forward to the possibility of a warm and sunny bank holiday, although we're going to stay on the Sussex coast for a couple of days next week to celebrate our wedding anniversary and of course, all signs point to rain on Wednesday / Thursday when I had visions of walking hand-in-hand on a deserted beach, the sun warming our faces, love in our hearts..... I shall pack the waterproofs. Have a lovely day all.

It's pretty grim right now and going to get worse, but take heart guys - only about seven weeks 'til this evil trend is reversed.

A couple of posts pruned this morning folks. Please hit the report button for any questionable posts and let the site team deal with it cheers all, and have a good weekend

Mornin each. Very dull,gloomy and chilly this morning and some very dark skies over yonder. (North West I think. I'm geographically challenged ).Mr Pikes weather updates are very welcome on here. I, and many others appreciate his hard work.Back to the weather......no storms today by the look of it. Never mind....it's early days yet.Have a good day, everyone.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY 2ND MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A High pressure centre will slip South down across the UK from the North through today. A warm front will approach NW areas from the Atlantic through tomorrow. GFS GFS shows fine weather across the UK today and tomorrow in association with High pressure moving South over the UK. Through the second half of the weekend and for a time next week Atlantic fronts will affect the North at first and all areas by Tuesday. The model's ensembles then shows changeable conditions for a time for all before the trend towards High pressure building to a greater or lesser degree remains evident this morning for week 2. UKMO UKMO looks very unsettled this morning with a fresh Westerly flow next week between Low pressure to the North and High pressure near the Azores. All areas would be subjected to spells of rain at times in Westerly winds and average temperatures. GEM The GEM operational this morning also shows the likelihood of a period of blustery Westerly winds and occasional rain through next week and weekend as Low pressure remains to the North and High pressure recedes further to the South. NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows unsettled conditions spreading to all areas soon after the Bank Holiday with Low pressure crossing the UK from the West and followed by further unstable Westerly winds later with further outbreaks of rain in average temperatures. ECM looks very disturbed this morning as the Atlantic ratchets itself up on Tuesday feeding Low pressure, Westerly winds and frontal troughs spilling across from the west regularly from Tuesday onward right out to the end of the run. MY THOUGHTS After the fine and dry weather of Bank Holiday Monday next week looks increasingly likely to turn unsettled and breezy with rain at times as Low pressure is now focused on affecting all areas of the UK next week. With all models now singing from the same hymn sheet there seems little room for deviation from this general message with GFS the only voice in the dark indicating a trend towards drier and warmer conditions developing under higher pressure through Week 2 though it too shows disturbed conditions in the period before. Temperatures will be close to average overall with some warmth in any brighter patches between the rain in the SE.

Sorry I'm late with this but my theory is that the current amplified spring and autumn warming could be an effect of the loss of Arctic Sea Ice which has caused a great shrinkage of the Polar Cell which in turn increases spring warming and slows autumn cooling over the mid latitudes (including the UK) whilst winter and summer have seen less warming due to the Azores High being displaced towards Greenland and/or the Arctic allowing for increased Polar Incursions over the UK in those seasons albeit via an expelled and diluted Polar Vortex over the UK or France or Central Europe or Scandinavia.

Anyways.....a decent weekend of weather for our region is something to look forward to.

On topic: Currently 8.6c, overcast but the weekend is not looking too bad. Have a good weekend folks. I

now lets hope the bank holiday charts stay like that ecm ensembles temps barring a couple of cold nights temps look pleasant if nothing hot showing ignore gfs 12th on as a warm outlier wind breezy 6th onwards but nothing of note rain rain being picked up on the 6th on the 7th ecm is the outlier although would make sense with what the fax shows overall not bad but looking wet from wednesday next week although that is fi for now

monday DRY SUNNY AND WARM NICE :)

ECM shows how lucky we're going to be with pressure just remaining high enough for most of us to give a nice extra day off

Some cold Frosty nights coming up over this weekend.

What does it matter if you're blinded at 10pm rather than 3am? There's no more daylight, it just gets organised in a way which benefits most people. I'm seriously worried about some of the posters in here. Maybe they should live in the Arctic circle in Winter & the Antarctic in summer & leave the rest of us to carry on living our lives?

No thunder here yet. Very still though and quite muggy. And extremely gloomy. Maybe we'll hear some thunder later (or wheelie bins )

Just seen Look East weather and according to them, most of our region could experience some thundery and heavy rain with flood warnings, today. Well, like I keep saying...let's wait and see.

10.9 awful. wet. northern blocked. cool.

Just updated from SPC for next week: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSSBROADER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DAY7/WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULDULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED AROUND THIS TIME FRAME...GUIDANCEVARIABILITY/MODEST PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY SUCH SEVERE RISKAREAS AT THIS TIME.

The table of forecasts will be posted in a minute or two over in the scoring thread. I have it ready except for adding in any very recent entries, a few minutes ago there had been 56 entries with the median at 12.1 C. Check the table for the updated values. Meanwhile, these are the (rounded) daily averages for each day 1981-2010 with the running monthly mean in brackets. 1981-2010 CET May averages DATE ____ AVG ___ CUM AVG (1st to date shown) __ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 __ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 __ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 __ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 Notice that the daily means are not a steady unbroken rise with the increasing solar angle, there are peaks evident around the 6th-7th, 20th and a much more prominent peak 23rd-24th. These are much more subdued in the cumulative data which do tend to show more or less a regular progression.

Not so sure about tonight's risk with 17Z RAP not really getting the instability back into C MS/AL in time for the LLJ.Some tornados about yes but I don't entirely concur with SPC tornado watch just issued but 1) I'm an amateur and 2) I have been wrong on several occasions LOL. Edit: Note to myself - look at OBS before posting. The skies have actually cleared nicely across a large portion of MS and into AL so I guess the modelled CAPE may be underplayed with 2mTs of 25 and dps approaching 20 in the clear slot. May be lively after all and initiation imminent looking at visible. Edit2: Hodo for Meridian, MS shows a very sharp directional turn between surface and 900mb which is interesting. Deep layer SRH may not be that high but pure directional shear lower down could compensate. This Dixie/jungle stuff is a nightmare to be honest for chasers and residents alike so let's move on to May and get those lovely tubes out in open country. Note: Agree entirely with Paul regarding chaser etiquette. Chuck Doswell's talk at ChaserCon 2014 is well worth a watch (available on YT)