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Well the GFS has high pressure near or over the UK from day 4 Apart from the high shifting position and allowing some weak fronts come round the high, it's pretty settled. North has some rain at times and the south barely has any. ECM is similar, mean surface pressure remains above 1010mb for most of the UK from day 4, south driest and warmest with some rain at times for the north. Looks settled for the south and rainfall in the north will be more nuisance value than anything else. Overall a rather unspectacular spell coming up with average temperatures and variable amounts of sunshine. If the cloud breaks in any milder periods the temperatures could rise close to 20C, but more the low to mid-teens generally. In any clearer, cooler periods we could still get a touch of frost in sheltered areas. Edit - Rainfall charts show most of the UK (except Western Scotland) to be pretty much bone dry after the 8th April. That would suggest settled weather for most of the UK.

Lovely outputs this morning..

It looks like an improving picture as we go into next week. We do have some rain and showers crossing the UK over the weekend as the Atlantic low and fronts move in. Fax for Sunday 12z these gradually clearing and by midweek onwards the models show a nice build of pressure across the UK as the jet moves further north. It looks like we are then heading for mid-latitude heights across from the Azores into W.Europe for a while with frequent ridging into the south.The far north and north west of the UK still liable to cloud and rain at times as fronts move across from time to time from low pressure around Iceland. so the best of the weather further south so, although it.s not wall to wall sunshine nationwide, away from nw areas a lot of dry and bright weather looks likely after Monday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Aberdeen_avn.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Manchester_avn.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_London_avn.png as supported by the ensemble graphs above.

Latest gfs update will please every one except those still looking for snow.

ironically despite being in the asthma club, not one side effect off this smoggynessnessness. I have postponed any cycling though. heres a pic from Long Mynd last saturday, some 1000ft up!

A very changeable outlook, the North getting the worst of the weather, so in summery, from gfs and ecm much springlike weather to be had, but even for the south some unsettled conditions at times.....High pressure never gets to hold on in the more reliable timeframe .and anyone who thinks that high pressure is the true form .needs to look at the models.......

Indeed out to a week Sunday now and the high remains

As the days progress so does the potential for more good weather.

A fairly settled run from GFS from next Wednesday (9th) to the following Tuesday (15th) Temperatures would be in the mid to high teens for England and wales before climbing into the low 20's later on in the south

Todays the day when all this fog and murk is pushed away (according to GFS)..hurray..!!! 7-8 days without sunshine is enough to drive even Laserguy mad ( well probably not).. At least we had a pretty good thunderstorm just before the fog arrived..

Totally agree CR, having lived through smog in the 50's, I remember having to wear a scarf around my face with a hanky over my mouth, some people say that this was a vast improvement on my looks. I can also remember waking up to more than 3mm of cement dust all over everything, but I think that may have been a fairly localised event. I also remember one of the great smogs can't remember the year but must have been mid to late 50's my father used to cycle to work and home for dinner he done that journey for over 15 years 4 times a day, one lunch time he never arrived home, he couldn't find the house, boy that was a pea souper. Those where the days my friend.Looks a lot clearer out there today, more of a breeze, cars absolutely filthy after its journey to Peterborough yesterday, good day a nice million pounds worth of work won, lucky I went my input was a hand shake. Today is going to get very naughty got the bank manager in, think I better behave myself, but feel like telling him to stuff his bank where the sun dosen't shine (assume that my weather reference for this post :-)) he / his bank really has left us in a most difficult position but for the time being that all I can say about it, no doubt once it's resolved then I will say more, but I hate salesman and unfortunately these days that all bank managers are, just very poor salesmen.Have a great POETS day, and more importantly enjoy yourselves.

good to see someone with belief in the very farthest reaches of meteorological folk lore.

(N)Ice Quiz for you all here .... ...what is the coldest part of an ice sheet? A. The base B. The middle C. The surface D. It's roughly the same temperature throughout. Find the answer in the Know Your Earth Frozen Poles quiz at http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/frozen-poles-quiz/frozen-poles-quiz I managed to score 10/10 (thanks to a couple of lucky guesses) ...which makes me a scientist

Good evening all and I hope you all had a good week and are looking forward to the weekend. The week here has been mild for the time of year, but not particularly pleasant with overcast skies and high pollution levels. Struggling for breath to say the least.

That's proof . Dear Oh Dear!!!

Here.

I have been looking at the models and I see High pressure is the most dominant theme going forward even the met office have now come in line.

Some interesting looking skies about tonight, folks. They look a bit stormy, but I doubt it.

ECM maintaining the trend towards high pressure building in during Tuesday and more widespread by Wednesday Unlike GFS, ECM is sticking to its 00z run by turning less settled later next week High pressure has another go GFS goes for a more prolonged spell of high pressure whilst ECM going for a mixed spell of some settled days and some unsettled ones which is fairly normal for the time of year

What a difference a year makes.

Indeed and continued signals for above average 2m temperatures

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html Looking good

There will be talk of a drought soon. Even the ensembles have "dried up" today!

Impressive record-setting warmth so far this year in Fresno. #cawx pic.twitter.com/Th8Cjlm6P5

Best weather ref in a post I have seen

Hrómundartindur volcano Stratovolcano 540 m / 1,772 ft, Southwestern Iceland, 64.07°N / -21.2°W http://volcanodiscovery.com/hromundartindur-earthquakes.html quite a swarm there at present http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/reykjanespeninsula/ Background:Hrómundartindur is a small volcanic system located south of Thingvallavatn lake and immediately east of the Hengill volcanic system. It lies at a ridge-ridge-transform triple junction at the eastern end of the Reykjanes Peninsula, where the west Iceland volcanic zone changes direction from approximately W-E to SW-NE. Hrómundartindur was last active about 10,000 years ago, and displays vigorous geothermal activity at the Ölkeduháls geothermal field. The most recent eruptions in the Ölkeduháls area took place at the end of the latest glacial period, but Ölkeduháls currently contains numerous hot springs, mud pools, fumaroles, and mineral warm springs. Increased seismic activity and slow land uplift beginning in 1994 indicated magma flow into the roots of the volcanic system at 7 km depth. The activity continued for more than 4 years. --- http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/hromundartindur.html this may or may not be anything to do with the volcano but will update when more details come in

Giant hailstones smash cars in Kansas http://t.co/Z9aKCOXXL4

'noon anyone busy morning in work and my hopes for an early day are dashed too. was a very fresh SW'ly breeze when i walked into work this morning. notice its brightened up lots though. as MK says Happy Friday!

Thanks for that - obviously got through the spam filters! Morning all, still a bit hazy here but Air pollution levels are much lower today (As you can see on the left image from DEFRA.) as we pick up more of a south westerly flow.Tree pollen levels are moderate to high though (as you can see on the right image from the UK Met Office.) ......so wheezing might be replaced by sneezing ! Happy Friday :-)

Thanks J I think we all appreciate the time and effort you put into this(Roger too)

Fairly settled UKMO still as well with pressure still on course to rise mid week though northern and NW Scotland looks most prone to unsettled weather GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average

I'm going with a northwest-southeast split with decent fine and pleasant spells for the SE and the most atlantic driven weather to the NW.... It could be a lot worse.

Evening everyoneBeen AWOL as I have been doinjg one of my mammoth cross-country expeditions these last few days. This time N/S.Left Sussex at 10am on tuesday with beautiful weather at 19degC...only to run into the smog at M25/M3 junction. This lasted all the way round and up the M1 to northampton (temp 11degC) where the sun broke through. Then from Nottingham upwards til Sheffield it was smog again.Finally arrived in Leeds at 2pm ...sunny and up to 17deg C again..and popped in to see out adopted SE Regionnaire Numpty who was having some serious spinal surgery that day. His room gave a beautiful view across the Leeds skyline with lovey Cnb developing but no storms!!Pleased to say that Numpty's operation appears to have been a complete success...albeit he is off work for the next 6 weeks...but he is now home..Travelled back down today in dismal 11deg C murk apart from a brief interlude between Luton and Sussex this afternoon when we got up to 20degC on the M25!Very tired so going to bed now....amazing the spread of weather you see/travel trhough on long distance journeys.Back tomorrowxxxx

It's nothing to like what it was in the 50s and earlier, before the Clean Air Act. Before anyone suggests otherwise, I wasn't actually around then, but even in the 30 years I've lived in London I've known it much worse. That said, I did notice both the smell and that I was a bit short of breath after a not particularly strenuous walk.

Consensus forming between the ensemble models for heights to build over the UK into days 10-16. Bringing pleasant and fine conditions into Easter wkend - ext ecm has been swaying back and forth with this time period, but with the other ens suggesting above average conditions, and the ecm now on board, confidence can increase. temp anom ext ecm days 10-15

We kick of the melt season, according to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, with the joint mildest March for north of 70N, and the mildest Jan-Mar on record for north of 70N. March Jan-Mar Should be interesting to see if the UAH data agrees.

8 months away....... Back to the slightly nearer and more realistic timeframe ECM shows pressure starting to rise

As it looks like we've passed the peak for Arctic Ice for another year, here's a new thread for the discussion of the 2014 melt season. A few links: IJIS: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Cryosphere: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ PIOMAS: http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73d8a0fc5970d-pi DMI Temps: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php As always please be respectful of other people and avoid bickering. Thanks.

April 1954 was a dry sunny month but on the chilly side with frequent frosts Sunshine % England and Wales: 121 Scotland: 127% Northern Ireland: 117 Rainfall totals in inches Camden Square: 0.29 Dover: 0.22 Worthing: 0.42 Southampton: 0.24 Slough: 0.36 Oxford: 0.39 Shoeburyness: 0.26 Lowestoft: 0.37 Teignmouth: 0.12 Penzance: 0.84 Taunton: 0.14 Circencester: 0.45 Church Stretton: 0.74 Birmingham: 0.62 Boston: 0.32 Buxton: 0.88 Manchester: 0.58 York: 0.22 Middlesbrough: 0.16 Newcastle: 0.52 Keswick: 1.16 Wales Abergavenny: 0.17 Cardiff: 0.88 Tenby: 0.87 Lake Vyrnwy: 1.96 Llandudno: 1.37 Scotland Dumfries: 0.89 Edinburgh: 1.22 Tiree: 1.41 Leuchars: 1.69 Braemar: 0.96 Dyce: 1.53 Fort William: 3.12 Wick: 1.10 Lerwick: 2.14 Northern Ireland Armagh: 0.50 Aldergrove: 0.38 Ballymena: 0.61 Londonderry: 1.51 Omagh: 1.40

The Gfs 00z op run shows a NW-SE split for most of the time, the azores and continental anticyclones continue to have considerable influence across at least the south eastern half of the BI although occasionally flirting with unsettled weather but it's the NW of the uk which has the most unsettled conditions although even the north west has some decent fine spells too. It could be a lot worse..it's nothing compared to the washout winter, the PFJ is further north, and the jetstream is weaker.

just showing this for now looks pretty wet ukmo uppers looks quite cool around 14 but cooler far north of our region holding this tonight as will probably be different tomorrow going to take an early one tonight goodnight all

Let's hope tommorow is a improvement, starting to think that we are in 1950's London, known for the great smogs. I know we no longer use coal to heat our homes, but as the population is growing our demand for energy will grow, so we will need to burn more fossil fuels. Which will pour more pollutants in the air. I think occasions like this will get all too common. Imo little has been imposed to limit the impacts, this is obviously not good enough, and the government need to buck up their ideas. I don't mind the occasionally smoggy day, but when it persists it's not pleasant. Today was rather muggy, and overcast not the nicest of days... I wouldn't mind some precipitation, it would disperse the bad air!! Nighty all To conclude, I caught a robin in flight

David Snow pointed out correctly that he was deducted points in February for a late entry, however the entry was not late, this has now been corrected as follows, it does not make a big difference overall but I have attached a revised schedule. Mar 2014 CET.pdf As ever if you spot any error, please let me know.

Apart from a minor blip early next week the 850's remain above average till at least the 19th Pressure stays fairly high for the south as such rainfall amounts will be fairly low Further north in Scotland pressure is lower at times increasing the risk of more rain

With much cleaner air pushing in it should be a very seasonal next 10 days with average temperatures and a mix of settled and showery days. Nothing too extreme. One big difference will be the return of blue skies during the settled periods and inbetween any showers. This will allow the full effect of the stronger April sun to be felt.

The Midlands today.... Its been quite cool, Topped out at 7c to 10c widely.

The 10 Reasons We've Been Too Slow in Responding to Climate Change, as Told by Sloths http://www.huffingtonpost.com/climate-nexus/ten-reasons-climate-change-sloths_b_5073088.html

12z UKMO showing pressure starting to rise from the SW on Tuesday UK wide on Wednesday GFS 2m8 day temperature anomaly remains above average