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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/04/14 in Posts

  1. Looking at the current outputs, between the 5th and 7th April, a moist south-westerly flow will most likely bring a lot of cloud and some rain for western areas although little if any rain will generally penetrate to the east of high ground. Here is one example: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140402/06/126/ukprec.png But I am envisaging a generally dry and sunny spell starting on the 8th/9th as high pressure will build from the south. The GEFS ensembles generally have high pressure close to the British Isles from the 9th to 15th and generally in quite a favourable place for sunshine although I think weak fronts may bring cloudier weather at times to the north and north-east of Britain. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140402/06/slp-180.png The MJO is forecast to move through phases 4 and 5 during April although the GFS is often over-progressive with this, so my suspicion is that we may have a more changeable spell around 20 April (corresponding to phase 4) and then a quieter end to the month. Eastern and central parts of the country are probably looking at another warm dry sunny month while in the west and also in the north of Scotland, sunshine and rainfall totals may be closer to normal.
    12 points
  2. Ho hum Still alive despite: (1) my failure, yesterday, to eat 4kg of veg and 1kg of fruit; and (2) the presence today of the killer smog Lucky escape, clearly. If I drop dead tonight as a result of a lack of dietary fibre and asphyxiation this post will look pretty stupid! AS
    6 points
  3. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-04-02 08:39:48 Valid: 02/04/2014 0600z to 03/04/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of mainland Europe, bringing settled conditions. Slow-moving long-wave upper trough over eastern Atlantic will bring a warm southerly flow aloft across western Europe inc. the UK ... while surface low pressure to the SW of the UK draws in a dry easterly flow at the surface. ... SOUTHERN and WESTERN BRITAIN ... Southerly flow Warm Air Advection (WAA) aloft sourced from North Africa (responsible for Saharan sand particles recently) will drive a plume of steep lapse rates north across southern and western areas of the UK today. Sampled surface airmass is rather dry, though mid-levels air moister, with destabilisation of this mid-level moisture bringing some convective elements embedded in the mostly dynamic rainfall spreading in across southern and western areas today ahead of slow-moving cold front edging in across the west. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are likely above a stable boundary (surface) layer in the above areas today (see map), strong southerly flow may allow some organisation of cells, with a risk of hail, gusty winds, cg lightning and torrential downpours leading to localised flooding the main threats with any storms. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=b8f09079eaf8336b8b09f58ce1d05579
    6 points
  4. GFS and NMM seem to show an area of interest in the SE corner this evening and into the night with possible imports, however there is currently nothing but light to moderate rain over the continent. The Met Office seems to indicate showers developing over the the N Mids, N England overnight, but no other models seem to pick up on this. There is no telling if any of these will occur and if they do, whether they will be thundery. My thoughts are that there may be some showers but can't see much if any thundery activity. Tomorrow, if we get some sunshine then there is the scope for some decent CAPE to build up and with an area of wind convergence moving north along a trough (shows up nicely on Met Office fax chart) and a cold front moving in from the west then the CAPE could actually be realised. If this happens, and temperatures get high enough, then the likelihood we could see surface based convection with showers and thunderstorms breaking out in Central Southern England, pushing north and east into the Midlands by evening time. However, as was the case today, if cloud amounts are too much then it will be a bust. Whilst all this goes on there is always the risk of isolated pockets of elevated convection along the cold front, although after today I hold out less hope for this. Overall I would say a low risk, but if it comes off then it could produce something pretty good for early April. A big IF though unfortunately.
    5 points
  5. If you look at both gfs and ecm at day 7 and 10 you will see a dramatic difference in there output, anyway Looking changeable to unsettled in the near time frame.....But at least some fresh air from the Atlantic
    5 points
  6. who would have thought that the only 'blowing and drifting' we were going to see in the region was sand and not snow...can we start a sand depth cup?
    5 points
  7. Yes by the weekend and into next week the models are showing a return to a more westerly pattern so the air quality should improve after tomorrow as we finally lose that se continental drift. We can see on Fridays fax the change moving in from the Atlantic as frontal systems carry some rain and showers across the country washing out the dust and pollution as the flow turns into the sw. After that we look like developing that nw/se split we often talk about with low pressure and fronts closer to Scotland and N.ireland and the continental high pressure never too far from the south. The ens means for this time next week show the weaker jet which has been straddling the country starting to move north as the High builds into the south of the UK. so whilst the next few days still look rather changeable with some showery rain about,as we go into next week it looks much better as fine conditions start to move further north.
    5 points
  8. Hello all just stopping in to say, well, hello, hope all is well. Dipping in and out, but keeping abreast of weather updates from our regional forecasters, been very helpful as always. My dad was renting his house out whilst living abroad, when he had to have treatment we persuaded him that taking the house back would make his getting better more comfortable. The garden was in a state and even though poorly, he was determined to start on it. Now he can't finish it, I felt strongly, being a keen gardener, I should make that happen, so have been spending what spare time I have engineering a family 'ground force' it gives some positive focus, that we can chat to him about. Weather, I'll take the dust as long as dry weather goes in my favour! All the best Ax
    4 points
  9. ECM and UKMO pretty close at t144 this morning GFS isn't too far behind either 8 day 2m temperature anomaly from GFS remains above average
    4 points
  10. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ looks like them showers to our south have bit the dust
    3 points
  11. The weight of evidence is for settled weather to gradually assert itself.
    3 points
  12. only got tomorrows fax for now everything lately seems to be late updating a mainly southerly flow rain looks like sunshine and some heavy showers areas to the north and north east of the region may stay dry temps 16-18 degrees locally at 20 looks likely again if you are lucky to see something tomorrow in the afternoon it may give you a few bangs these will be hit and miss though http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1007&ech=6&archive=0 thankfully ukmo have dropped the cold uppers from yesterday will update later when i can
    3 points
  13. With a minimum today of 7.5C, and maxima likely to reach about 17.5C (mean ~12.5, record high mean = 13.9C), we should see an increase to 11.9C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 12.5C to the 3rd (13.5) [record high = 15.0] 12.4C to the 4th (12.1) [record high = 15.6] 11.9C to the 5th (10.0) 12.3C to the 6th (14.0) [record high = 15.1 in 2011, 2nd highest just 13.2] 12.6C to the 7th (14.4) [record high = 14.7] 12.5C to the 8th (11.9) 12.0C to the 9th (8.1) The first to the 8th of April, according to the GFS, would be the warmest such period on record, by 0.3C (over 1926). It would be about 9C warmer than 2013 for that period too. It's not unusual SB, 39 previous Aprils have recorded double digit means on the first day. I think there are only 2 days that haven't recorded a double digit mean in the whole year, January 8th and 28th.
    3 points
  14. such sparkling, scintillating wit there..JP. Just been to shop (why are Co-Op employees so sour faced) and its quite chilly out now. But its been a pleasant enough day and no smog about. Now I need a STORM!
    2 points
  15. When I saw my car yesterday I thought builders had been working near by its ridiculous took ages to clean. Picture attached
    2 points
  16. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ gonna keep watching this DUST incase
    2 points
  17. right got some more now tomorrow night a weak west-south westerly flow possible mist patches locally but not widespread rainfall shows mainly dry on ukmo the fax shows a trough over the north of our region and a cold front moving in i reckon there will be showers overnight but will be patchy temps around 8-10 degrees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- friday a breezier westerly flow rain after early morning drizzly bits clear it looks dry just need to watch that trough on the fax as it may head west during the day temps around 16 degrees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- friday night a west-south west but weak snow haha sorry flow rainfall looks dry temps although around 6 degrees it will feel quite chilly overnight ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ saturday a breezy south west flow rain the front on the fax is moving very slowly so it looks to stay dry most of the day sunny intervals with overcast conditions likely in the afternoon temps around 14-15 degrees however the north and north east of our region may be a couple of degrees cooler all dependant on the amount of sun we see thats all for now john
    2 points
  18. ECM showing an unsettled start to next week with it turning cooler for all by Tuesday pressure starts to build mid week
    2 points
  19. The dust will take a hike come Friday afternoon as the winds turn SW
    2 points
  20. GFS builds pressure at t144 Where as UKMO is slower keeping a rise in pressure reserved for the 2nd half of next week Unless ECM moves to GFS this evening I think we'll see GFS pushing the rise in pressure back to the 2nd half of next week bringing it in line with the met offices thought's in today's text update GFS 2m temperature anomaly remains above average
    2 points
  21. Bright white skies and 18.9c. Can still see the car so the killer smog sandstorm hell hasn't yet descended on us fully.
    2 points
  22. March update issued April to June Summary Temperature Latest predictions for UK­ mean temperature favour above ­average temperatures for both April and for April­ May­ June as a whole. Overall, the probability that the UK­ mean temperature for April ­May June will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 25 and 30% and the probability of falling into the coldest of our five categories is between 5 and 10% (the 1981­2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Although there are currently no significant sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific and so neither El Niño nor La Niña currently prevails, latest observations support model predictions that a transition to El Niño conditions is more likely than not during the year. At this stage it is too early for El Niño to exert an influence on European weather this spring, but should El Niño conditions develop, they will start to influence global weather patterns later this year. Two factors that do have some potential to influence weather conditions over the British Isles during April are stratospheric conditions and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The final breakdown of the stratospheric winter vortex, which occurs as the sun begins to heat the Arctic stratosphere in spring, is likely to occur two to three weeks earlier than average. This favours a greater chance of blocked weather patterns and easterly weather types during April. Conversely, the MJO is expected to enter its active phase over the Indian Ocean during early April and this may favour the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation developing, although this association is strongest during winter. The ensemble of seasonal forecasts suggests some preference for a higher ­than­ average frequency of blocked weather patterns over the UK during April. This would manifest itself as a greater ­than­ usual incidence of a broadly easterly weather types and lower­ than ­average frequency of Atlantic frontal zones progressing across Britain. April is still a period of transition in weather patterns from winter to summer and forecasting temperatures during easterly weather types can depend on conditions over continental Europe. Given that North Sea temperatures are above normal and snow cover across Europe is below average any easterly flow during April is likely to be less cold than average. Temperature Summary Summary Precipitation Latest predictions for UK precipitation are largely indistinguishable from climatology for both April and April­ May­ June as a whole. The probability that UK precipitation for April­ May­ June will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10 and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is between 20 and 25% (the 1981­2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Climatologically, spring is the driest season of the year, as shown in Figure P1. In general, through spring rainfall becomes increasingly challenging to predict given that the likelihood of localised convective rainfall increasingly dominates the rainfall distribution. As discussed in the temperature section, at present no single forcing factor appears dominant. With the weight of the predictions currently suggesting some preference towards a blocked pattern for at least part of April, as well as some drift towards slightly more unsettled conditions developing as the month progresses, the signal for rainfall amounts over the month as a whole is largely indistinguishable from climatology. Over the 3­month period, April­ May­ June, the precipitation probabilities are largely indistinguishable from climatology, as indicated by the right­ hand side graph in Figure P2. This means that the probability of the exceptionally wet conditions of April ­May­ June 2012 is currently estimated as very low (note how none of the blue crosses on the right panel of Figure P2 are as high as the grey cross labelled 2012). Precipitation Summary Apologies for the messy parts of the post unfortunately I can't do anything about it
    2 points
  23. A nice looking trend for some fine weather developing in the ens next week especially away from the far north. The high pressure lurking near the Azores showing signs of an early visit as modeling moves it towards us next week. I hope this verifies and gives us a spell of warm Spring sunshine-it will be welcomed by many i would think after the endless rain we have had through the dreadful Winter.
    2 points
  24. All I will say is thank the Lord the winter is over and a bit of sun & warmth is hopefully on its way. No endless snow flake watching for the next few months!! Bliss.
    2 points
  25. After a cold week in parts of the east and north east it will become warmer from Saturday according to GFS Saturday sees south westerly winds replacing the east to south easterlies of this week with this some of the lowest temperatures transfer to the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid teens A similar pictures on Sunday with some of the lowest temperatures in the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid to high teens possibly 20c in the south Its a warm start to next week as well away from some north western parts with south westerly winds staying allowing temperatures in the east to rise possibly hitting 22c in some parts Tuesday then sees low pressure over Scotland more settled the further south you are, cooler in the north but staying warm in the far south (mid 20s in parts France as the heat builds for them) By Wednesday the high builds for the UK temperatures recover to the mid teens for the midlands south high teens possible for the far south still single figures for some in Scotland Over the next 8 days the GFS 2m temperature anomaly shows temperatures staying above normal for the UK and a lot of Europe
    2 points
  26. I know it's not really weather related but as your such a lovely bunch of people and this mouse was lost in Essex let's see if we can help him get home, he must be really missing his human companion.... Please contact me if you have lost this mouse https://www.facebook.com/nicola.palmer.370
    2 points
  27. Looking at the ECMWF for next week starting on Sunday. The first couple of days have low pressure to the NW and High to the SE with the UK the sandwich filling in a fresh south westerly airstream. By Tuesday the low has nudged it’s way into Scotland with the wind veering more westerly but still fresh. This is but a brief victory as the high pressure kicks it out of the way and by Wednesday and dominates for the next couple of days. In fact for the rest of the week really although by Friday and especially Saturday it’s weakened and retreated SE giving a more southerly flow over the UK. This gives fairly average temps at the beginning of the week especially in the west but these will pick up as the week progresses and by the end we could be looking at 18-19 in the east but still around 12-14 in Cornwall and about the same up north although around Shawbury could be 17C To sum up the 850 hPa temp anomaly and the 500 hPa Geopotential Height anomaly until Saturday the 12th.
    2 points
  28. Morning all That was a late night (blinking earthquakes phhhhhh) Sun trying to come out here http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile Some showers to our south thinking about coming in but look to be dying enroute Maybe someones got a giant duster to our south haha Anyway back to the house repairs Back later John
    2 points
  29. 2 points
  30. That's putting it mildly compared to the Daily Excess headline : "DEADLY POLLUTION WARNING FOR NEXT 24 HOURS"... https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/468085/Return-of-the-KILLER-SMOG-Worst-pollution-in-60-YEARS-to-strike-Britain-TOMORROW The "KILLER-SMOG" is here ......I can just about see it though my Saharan dust covered windows, so I won't be going outside today not because I think I might die but because I won't be able to resist saying 'I told you so' to my neighbour who washed his car yesterday only for it to be covered in sand again this morning (I did tell him not to bother for a couple more days but some people just don't listen ) Pollution levels will be high for parts of England and Wales, but not quite to the extreme extent that the media are portraying...... http://rtlec.co.uk/killer-smog-coming-your-way-and-the-government-doesnt-want-you-to-know/ The very young and elderly, and especially people with respiratory and heart problems should take care, and if you use an inhaler then you need to make sure you have it with you but for the majority of people the poor air quality will have little effect as this is a short lived event with pollution levels decreasing from tomorrow! The DEFRA website has the latest information on air quality – http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/
    2 points
  31. I haven't fallen for one for many years (probably early 90's) - there was an article on Countryfile about an animal called a 'stink toad' which was on the verge of extinction, I think due to its breeding habits (there were practically none of them left and they might have only been able to breed on one day of the year) I watched the whole article with interest and the penny only dropped when John Craven mentioned the breeding date... To be honest, my brain is too hardwired to fall for anything on April 1st now.
    2 points
  32. De Bilt march 2014 achieved 8.4c, ranking 3rd warmest. And sunniest ´ever´.
    2 points
  33. HOBART ( pop 215,000 ) Capital city of Tasmania. Location sealevel at base of Mt. Wellington (1270m). Climate: Temperate/maritime. March - First month of autumn This was the 4th warmest March in 133 years of records, but it was much cooler than the all-time record set in 2013, which was 0.8C warmer still. Dry mainly sunny and anomalously warm for the first half of the month with stagnant high pressure to the east. The first half contained most of the months heat: 6 days above 25C, 2 of which were just over 30C. From the 16th-21st weak fronts cut thru, bringing only a shower or two. On the 21st a small low formed off the coast and a front stalled over Tasmania, bringing a rather cold day with rain ( 16mm ). The following two days were dry but cool ( max mid teens ), then cool to mild but increasingly cloudy and humid as low pressure extended over the eastern side of the continent to give Hobart onshore winds. A brief period or two of light showers otherwise dry with low cloud and hill fog and calm. Temperature anomalies ( below ) are 81-10 comparison. Average maximum: 22.0 ( +1.7 ) Average minimum: 12.6 ( +1.2 ) Rainfall: 23mm ( average 45mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 4/from 8 Extremes in daily temperature for March ( Records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 32.0 11th ( Record 37.3 in 2008 ) Lowest maximum: 14.8 21st ( Record 8.9 in 1925 ) Highest minimum: 17.1 5th,10th ( Record 21.1 in 1906 ) Lowest minimum: 8.6 23rd, 24th ( Record 1.8 in 1926 )
    1 point
  34. might be warm, may be cold, might be windy then not and may be wet but dry yeah, that will do it
    1 point
  35. ecm ensembles temps wind rain i will let you work that out
    1 point
  36. Nice forecast, JP. Hope we do get some thunder action. It's been a lovely day here and as the sun went down, the sky looked like mother-of-pearl. Stunning. Hope we get many more days like today.
    1 point
  37. Good ensemble agreement on heights building during the middle of next week
    1 point
  38. No worries ECM ends with high pressure still over most of England and Wales it remains warm as well The question is where the low in the Atlantic would end up beyond this
    1 point
  39. ECM backtracking tonight with high pressure starting to move in as early as next Tuesday no surprise really more in line with what the other models were showing still a chilly flow to start with as the high moves up High pressure righ over us mid next week
    1 point
  40. March confirmed as 7.6C (7.63, down from 7.65), the 18th mildest on record and 1.0C above the 81-10 average. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014 Congrats to Summer Blizzard and Kentish Man, who both got it spot on That makes the first 3 months of the year, the joint 8th mildest on record
    1 point
  41. It was certainly exceptionally hazy here today. Normally "polluted" days with broken cloud cover produce striking "crepuscular ray" effects and orange hues near the horizon, as was true during the high pollution episoide in April 2011, but today's skies resembled sunshine attempting to break through fog and it was too hazy even for the crepuscular rays. Having read around the subject there appears to be strong evidence that particulate matter (especially PM10) is strongly correlated with pollution-related haze. I had a stay in Norwich between Wednesday and Sunday and the PM10 concentrations were mostly around 50-60 there over the weekend but have dropped since then, while most sites in Yorkshire are registering values of at least 60 right now. I have to revise my earlier assessments along the lines of "only dangerous for a significant percentage of people in London". They were based largely on what we saw during the April 2011 spell, when air quality ratings were Low or Moderate in most parts of the country with High ratings mostly confined to London, but at present High and Very High ratings are widespread, even in some relatively rural parts of the country. Regarding EU emissions targets, it's fine requiring us to keep our domestic emissions levels down to stay within targets, but what do we do when large "background" levels of pollution are carried over from the continent on a south-easterly wind? This was an issue during April 2011 and it is also an issue now.
    1 point
  42. some really nice photos in this thread! Here are a couple from me
    1 point
  43. Paul, I have some nice pics but many are low quality possibly to low res for what you would like/need. a few are higher quality from new digi! (last few in list) Have cropped a few. If any photos are used I would like to be credited as - Electricsnowstorm - GG . or, ESS - GG
    1 point
  44. All pics from Gibraltar......will post some more in a separate post.
    1 point
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