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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/04/14 in all areas

  1. 12 points
    Looking at the current outputs, between the 5th and 7th April, a moist south-westerly flow will most likely bring a lot of cloud and some rain for western areas although little if any rain will generally penetrate to the east of high ground. Here is one example: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140402/06/126/ukprec.png But I am envisaging a generally dry and sunny spell starting on the 8th/9th as high pressure will build from the south. The GEFS ensembles generally have high pressure close to the British Isles from the 9th to 15th and generally in quite a favourable place for sunshine although I think weak fronts may bring cloudier weather at times to the north and north-east of Britain. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140402/06/slp-180.png The MJO is forecast to move through phases 4 and 5 during April although the GFS is often over-progressive with this, so my suspicion is that we may have a more changeable spell around 20 April (corresponding to phase 4) and then a quieter end to the month. Eastern and central parts of the country are probably looking at another warm dry sunny month while in the west and also in the north of Scotland, sunshine and rainfall totals may be closer to normal.
  2. 7 points
  3. 6 points
    Clegg was useless and that's coming from someone who is pro Europe, he repeated the same lines over and over again. He failed to mention that not all EU laws are bad, some are good for the UK, no mention of how leaving the EU would probably lead to less workers rights and a race to the bottom. Farage is entertaining and has a message that resonates with a section of the public, personally I'm hoping UKIP does okay at the GE thereby stopping the Tories from getting a majority, I think people are now less worried about coalitions and I don't think another coalition would be a bad thing. This anti-establishment message by UKIP all sounds very good to some but generally this debate has been so loaded towards UKIP, for years the EU has just been used as a punch bag for everything that people perceive to be wrong with the UK, once the debate moves on I expect that more people will come to realize that the real problems are home grown policies not the EU. I should add that its not all rosy on the EU front in France, the National Front has made gains at the municipal elections and Hollande is fast turning into a complete joke. The Franco-German relationship is very strained at the moment and if Cameron stays on good terms with Merkel he has a chance of getting some powers brought back to the UK if he manages to win the election. I think his timeline for a referendum isn't going to happen, negotiations will take a long time but there are some areas that would be possible and would also be welcomed by other EU countries.
  4. 6 points
    Ho hum Still alive despite: (1) my failure, yesterday, to eat 4kg of veg and 1kg of fruit; and (2) the presence today of the killer smog Lucky escape, clearly. If I drop dead tonight as a result of a lack of dietary fibre and asphyxiation this post will look pretty stupid! AS
  5. 6 points
    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-04-02 08:39:48 Valid: 02/04/2014 0600z to 03/04/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of mainland Europe, bringing settled conditions. Slow-moving long-wave upper trough over eastern Atlantic will bring a warm southerly flow aloft across western Europe inc. the UK ... while surface low pressure to the SW of the UK draws in a dry easterly flow at the surface. ... SOUTHERN and WESTERN BRITAIN ... Southerly flow Warm Air Advection (WAA) aloft sourced from North Africa (responsible for Saharan sand particles recently) will drive a plume of steep lapse rates north across southern and western areas of the UK today. Sampled surface airmass is rather dry, though mid-levels air moister, with destabilisation of this mid-level moisture bringing some convective elements embedded in the mostly dynamic rainfall spreading in across southern and western areas today ahead of slow-moving cold front edging in across the west. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are likely above a stable boundary (surface) layer in the above areas today (see map), strong southerly flow may allow some organisation of cells, with a risk of hail, gusty winds, cg lightning and torrential downpours leading to localised flooding the main threats with any storms. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=b8f09079eaf8336b8b09f58ce1d05579
  6. 5 points
    GFS and NMM seem to show an area of interest in the SE corner this evening and into the night with possible imports, however there is currently nothing but light to moderate rain over the continent. The Met Office seems to indicate showers developing over the the N Mids, N England overnight, but no other models seem to pick up on this. There is no telling if any of these will occur and if they do, whether they will be thundery. My thoughts are that there may be some showers but can't see much if any thundery activity. Tomorrow, if we get some sunshine then there is the scope for some decent CAPE to build up and with an area of wind convergence moving north along a trough (shows up nicely on Met Office fax chart) and a cold front moving in from the west then the CAPE could actually be realised. If this happens, and temperatures get high enough, then the likelihood we could see surface based convection with showers and thunderstorms breaking out in Central Southern England, pushing north and east into the Midlands by evening time. However, as was the case today, if cloud amounts are too much then it will be a bust. Whilst all this goes on there is always the risk of isolated pockets of elevated convection along the cold front, although after today I hold out less hope for this. Overall I would say a low risk, but if it comes off then it could produce something pretty good for early April. A big IF though unfortunately.
  7. 5 points
    If you look at both gfs and ecm at day 7 and 10 you will see a dramatic difference in there output, anyway Looking changeable to unsettled in the near time frame.....But at least some fresh air from the Atlantic
  8. 5 points
    Seeing recent programs about the poor sods who lived and died in the trenches during WWI, and then the others who became prisoners of the Japanese during WWII has made me think. Mine is a very fortunate generation. I was born 6 weeks premature weighing 3lbs - if I had been born in an earlier stage of history I would not have survived. About 5 years of age I cut my knee on a broken milk bottle and caught septicaemia by that time penicillin had been invited and was in wide spread use, otherwise there would have been strong chance of having a leg amputated or even death. About 33 years of age I had a burst appendix - 50 years earlier the chances of surviving this were problematic. More recently I was diagnosed with prostate cancer but have received intensive radio therapy treatment which must have cost a fortune and the prognosis is good, so I have been kept alive by the wonders of modern science. Going further back in history our forbears had an average life expectancy in their 40's and very often the men folk had to fight in wars. Going back to the Middle Ages some 30% of the population died from the plague. In the first half of the 20th century people generally worked a 5 and a half day week and before that in 19th century it was often 6 days a week, 12 hours a day for just enough money to be able to provide food, more or less. My wife and I are now retired and able to live fairly comfortably in our own house which is paid for - we don't have any debts and for about 3 months of the year we are able to go to France. We have two children who have grown up well with three grand children who are showing promise. We have a car, moderately good health and I am even taking up gliding again. During my earlier years I heard a lot of first hand reports of how earlier generations suffered through two world wars and the depression, then look at how people live in earlier generations and have come to the conclusion that my generation must be the luckiest generation in history. We are old enough to have had some experience of the older ways but now we have the advantage of living in an age of great technological development. Sometimes some people appear bitter and twisted but they should stop and think, consider how preceding generations lived, not only that consider how others in different parts of the world live, consider that we live in a country where but for all its faults, it allows us to live a life of relative freedom and free from absolute poverty and when you look at it from that point of view you should see that we are part of the privileged few, so sometimes it does us all good to count our blessings. I
  9. 5 points
    who would have thought that the only 'blowing and drifting' we were going to see in the region was sand and not snow...can we start a sand depth cup?
  10. 5 points
    Yes by the weekend and into next week the models are showing a return to a more westerly pattern so the air quality should improve after tomorrow as we finally lose that se continental drift. We can see on Fridays fax the change moving in from the Atlantic as frontal systems carry some rain and showers across the country washing out the dust and pollution as the flow turns into the sw. After that we look like developing that nw/se split we often talk about with low pressure and fronts closer to Scotland and N.ireland and the continental high pressure never too far from the south. The ens means for this time next week show the weaker jet which has been straddling the country starting to move north as the High builds into the south of the UK. so whilst the next few days still look rather changeable with some showery rain about,as we go into next week it looks much better as fine conditions start to move further north.
  11. 4 points
    Hello all just stopping in to say, well, hello, hope all is well. Dipping in and out, but keeping abreast of weather updates from our regional forecasters, been very helpful as always. My dad was renting his house out whilst living abroad, when he had to have treatment we persuaded him that taking the house back would make his getting better more comfortable. The garden was in a state and even though poorly, he was determined to start on it. Now he can't finish it, I felt strongly, being a keen gardener, I should make that happen, so have been spending what spare time I have engineering a family 'ground force' it gives some positive focus, that we can chat to him about. Weather, I'll take the dust as long as dry weather goes in my favour! All the best Ax
  12. 4 points
    ECM and UKMO pretty close at t144 this morning GFS isn't too far behind either 8 day 2m temperature anomaly from GFS remains above average
  13. 3 points
    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ looks like them showers to our south have bit the dust
  14. 3 points
    The weight of evidence is for settled weather to gradually assert itself.
  15. 3 points
    only got tomorrows fax for now everything lately seems to be late updating a mainly southerly flow rain looks like sunshine and some heavy showers areas to the north and north east of the region may stay dry temps 16-18 degrees locally at 20 looks likely again if you are lucky to see something tomorrow in the afternoon it may give you a few bangs these will be hit and miss though http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1007&ech=6&archive=0 thankfully ukmo have dropped the cold uppers from yesterday will update later when i can
  16. 3 points
    With a minimum today of 7.5C, and maxima likely to reach about 17.5C (mean ~12.5, record high mean = 13.9C), we should see an increase to 11.9C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 12.5C to the 3rd (13.5) [record high = 15.0] 12.4C to the 4th (12.1) [record high = 15.6] 11.9C to the 5th (10.0) 12.3C to the 6th (14.0) [record high = 15.1 in 2011, 2nd highest just 13.2] 12.6C to the 7th (14.4) [record high = 14.7] 12.5C to the 8th (11.9) 12.0C to the 9th (8.1) The first to the 8th of April, according to the GFS, would be the warmest such period on record, by 0.3C (over 1926). It would be about 9C warmer than 2013 for that period too. It's not unusual SB, 39 previous Aprils have recorded double digit means on the first day. I think there are only 2 days that haven't recorded a double digit mean in the whole year, January 8th and 28th.
  17. 2 points
    An abusive relative .......eh? Wasn't there a recent report about how we are failing our own nationals who are living in abusive family relationships - not enough money and resources to deal with the situation and a reluctance on the part of the police to charge the persons responsible. It might seem harsh but IMO they should all be sent home. If the UK is struggling to deal with its own, why should we offer sanctuary to foreign nationals who are in a similar situation. Good try for a free education though.
  18. 2 points
    such sparkling, scintillating wit there..JP. Just been to shop (why are Co-Op employees so sour faced) and its quite chilly out now. But its been a pleasant enough day and no smog about. Now I need a STORM!
  19. 2 points
    When I saw my car yesterday I thought builders had been working near by its ridiculous took ages to clean. Picture attached
  20. 2 points
    Can't argue with you there, PIT; Clegg was a complete and utter prat!
  21. 2 points
    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ gonna keep watching this DUST incase
  22. 2 points
    right got some more now tomorrow night a weak west-south westerly flow possible mist patches locally but not widespread rainfall shows mainly dry on ukmo the fax shows a trough over the north of our region and a cold front moving in i reckon there will be showers overnight but will be patchy temps around 8-10 degrees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- friday a breezier westerly flow rain after early morning drizzly bits clear it looks dry just need to watch that trough on the fax as it may head west during the day temps around 16 degrees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- friday night a west-south west but weak snow haha sorry flow rainfall looks dry temps although around 6 degrees it will feel quite chilly overnight ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ saturday a breezy south west flow rain the front on the fax is moving very slowly so it looks to stay dry most of the day sunny intervals with overcast conditions likely in the afternoon temps around 14-15 degrees however the north and north east of our region may be a couple of degrees cooler all dependant on the amount of sun we see thats all for now john
  23. 2 points
  24. 2 points
    ECM showing an unsettled start to next week with it turning cooler for all by Tuesday pressure starts to build mid week
  25. 2 points
    Auto glass replace, Auto glass repair!
  26. 2 points
    Injury lawyers for you - I like it when all the lawyers confidently proclaim "We are there for you!" in unison. It really puts you at ease and emphatically solidifies their genuine empathy for your predicament. I also like it how when one of them trips on the steps they all quickly rally round to make sure she is O.K. Such caring people. **Warning - post may contain sarcasm**
  27. 2 points
    The dust will take a hike come Friday afternoon as the winds turn SW
  28. 2 points
    GFS builds pressure at t144 Where as UKMO is slower keeping a rise in pressure reserved for the 2nd half of next week Unless ECM moves to GFS this evening I think we'll see GFS pushing the rise in pressure back to the 2nd half of next week bringing it in line with the met offices thought's in today's text update GFS 2m temperature anomaly remains above average
  29. 2 points
  30. 2 points
    Bright white skies and 18.9c. Can still see the car so the killer smog sandstorm hell hasn't yet descended on us fully.
  31. 2 points
    March update issued April to June Summary Temperature Latest predictions for UK­ mean temperature favour above ­average temperatures for both April and for April­ May­ June as a whole. Overall, the probability that the UK­ mean temperature for April ­May June will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 25 and 30% and the probability of falling into the coldest of our five categories is between 5 and 10% (the 1981­2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Although there are currently no significant sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific and so neither El Niño nor La Niña currently prevails, latest observations support model predictions that a transition to El Niño conditions is more likely than not during the year. At this stage it is too early for El Niño to exert an influence on European weather this spring, but should El Niño conditions develop, they will start to influence global weather patterns later this year. Two factors that do have some potential to influence weather conditions over the British Isles during April are stratospheric conditions and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The final breakdown of the stratospheric winter vortex, which occurs as the sun begins to heat the Arctic stratosphere in spring, is likely to occur two to three weeks earlier than average. This favours a greater chance of blocked weather patterns and easterly weather types during April. Conversely, the MJO is expected to enter its active phase over the Indian Ocean during early April and this may favour the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation developing, although this association is strongest during winter. The ensemble of seasonal forecasts suggests some preference for a higher ­than­ average frequency of blocked weather patterns over the UK during April. This would manifest itself as a greater ­than­ usual incidence of a broadly easterly weather types and lower­ than ­average frequency of Atlantic frontal zones progressing across Britain. April is still a period of transition in weather patterns from winter to summer and forecasting temperatures during easterly weather types can depend on conditions over continental Europe. Given that North Sea temperatures are above normal and snow cover across Europe is below average any easterly flow during April is likely to be less cold than average. Temperature Summary Summary Precipitation Latest predictions for UK precipitation are largely indistinguishable from climatology for both April and April­ May­ June as a whole. The probability that UK precipitation for April­ May­ June will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10 and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is between 20 and 25% (the 1981­2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Climatologically, spring is the driest season of the year, as shown in Figure P1. In general, through spring rainfall becomes increasingly challenging to predict given that the likelihood of localised convective rainfall increasingly dominates the rainfall distribution. As discussed in the temperature section, at present no single forcing factor appears dominant. With the weight of the predictions currently suggesting some preference towards a blocked pattern for at least part of April, as well as some drift towards slightly more unsettled conditions developing as the month progresses, the signal for rainfall amounts over the month as a whole is largely indistinguishable from climatology. Over the 3­month period, April­ May­ June, the precipitation probabilities are largely indistinguishable from climatology, as indicated by the right­ hand side graph in Figure P2. This means that the probability of the exceptionally wet conditions of April ­May­ June 2012 is currently estimated as very low (note how none of the blue crosses on the right panel of Figure P2 are as high as the grey cross labelled 2012). Precipitation Summary Apologies for the messy parts of the post unfortunately I can't do anything about it
  32. 2 points
    A nice looking trend for some fine weather developing in the ens next week especially away from the far north. The high pressure lurking near the Azores showing signs of an early visit as modeling moves it towards us next week. I hope this verifies and gives us a spell of warm Spring sunshine-it will be welcomed by many i would think after the endless rain we have had through the dreadful Winter.
  33. 2 points
    All I will say is thank the Lord the winter is over and a bit of sun & warmth is hopefully on its way. No endless snow flake watching for the next few months!! Bliss.
  34. 2 points
    After a cold week in parts of the east and north east it will become warmer from Saturday according to GFS Saturday sees south westerly winds replacing the east to south easterlies of this week with this some of the lowest temperatures transfer to the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid teens A similar pictures on Sunday with some of the lowest temperatures in the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid to high teens possibly 20c in the south Its a warm start to next week as well away from some north western parts with south westerly winds staying allowing temperatures in the east to rise possibly hitting 22c in some parts Tuesday then sees low pressure over Scotland more settled the further south you are, cooler in the north but staying warm in the far south (mid 20s in parts France as the heat builds for them) By Wednesday the high builds for the UK temperatures recover to the mid teens for the midlands south high teens possible for the far south still single figures for some in Scotland Over the next 8 days the GFS 2m temperature anomaly shows temperatures staying above normal for the UK and a lot of Europe
  35. 2 points
    I know it's not really weather related but as your such a lovely bunch of people and this mouse was lost in Essex let's see if we can help him get home, he must be really missing his human companion.... Please contact me if you have lost this mouse https://www.facebook.com/nicola.palmer.370
  36. 2 points
    One could write an awful lot about this and of course compared to the 19th century we are vastly better off. But for some reason,despite the great advances in medical science and people living far longer the image that springs into my mind is one of thousands living out their lives lonely and abandoned in god's waiting rooms. And is society any happier than it was sixty years ago?
  37. 2 points
    I was raised on the 'sticks and stones....' mantra and I can't help thinking that society in general would benefit greatly from a bit of de-sensitivity, especially in respect of race and/or colour. Someone alluded to football earlier and it provides a great example of the double standards prevelent today. Any one calling a chubby player a fat ****, an older player an old ****, or a short player a stumpy **** normally generates howls of laughter, but surely they should be considered equally offensive and those shouting abuse on the basis of race or colour. As for fat, old, short players....well nuff said
  38. 2 points
    Looking at the ECMWF for next week starting on Sunday. The first couple of days have low pressure to the NW and High to the SE with the UK the sandwich filling in a fresh south westerly airstream. By Tuesday the low has nudged it’s way into Scotland with the wind veering more westerly but still fresh. This is but a brief victory as the high pressure kicks it out of the way and by Wednesday and dominates for the next couple of days. In fact for the rest of the week really although by Friday and especially Saturday it’s weakened and retreated SE giving a more southerly flow over the UK. This gives fairly average temps at the beginning of the week especially in the west but these will pick up as the week progresses and by the end we could be looking at 18-19 in the east but still around 12-14 in Cornwall and about the same up north although around Shawbury could be 17C To sum up the 850 hPa temp anomaly and the 500 hPa Geopotential Height anomaly until Saturday the 12th.
  39. 2 points
    The previous post assumes that the variability remains broadly similar i.e that the synoptic patterns of extreme events don't become more frequent and that increased rainfall is only due to increased temperature. This increase may allow a very small number of events to be classified higher, but it's hard to determine whether a 1000 year event is now 1 in 500 years or even if a 1 in 100 year is now a 1 in 50, and whether they were the direct results of warming. Bearing that in mind, on reflection the previous post could still be seen as a bit of a cop-out by not examining extremes at all - surely some possible warming affect should be visible? Using the EWP daily data since 1931 (noting that this covers a wide area rather than the more localised extreme events), there are 25202 days up to the arbitrary date of 1/1/2000 and 5173 since then. Creating simple probability distribution functions of the proportion of days of rainfall from the total days shows the higher rainfall experienced in recent years. 10mm raindays have been 14.76% more frequent since 2000 compared to prior. 12.7mm (half inch) 29.23% 15mm 38.42% 20mm 82.69% 25.4mm (one inch) 192.31% - only 10 days 1931-99 compared to 6 since 2000 they have occurred almost 3 times as often. This seems a bit more dramatic than expected and it turns out that HadUKP data since the start of 2006 has been recalculated so the process was repeated with data from 1931-89 and 1990-2005 10mm increase 11.46% 12.7mm 19.03% 15mm 31.58% 20mm 50.23% 25.4mm 10.63% Now the increases aren't as great, but follow the same trend apart from the dramatic increase for the highest totals. The difference in the results could be an issue with data homogeneity though we know we have had numerous extreme events since 2006, it could be natural variability particularly for small samples but also more generally - the 1990s coincided with a particularly positive phase of AO for example, or it could be that it has been generally warmer more recently.
  40. 2 points
    Morning all That was a late night (blinking earthquakes phhhhhh) Sun trying to come out here http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile Some showers to our south thinking about coming in but look to be dying enroute Maybe someones got a giant duster to our south haha Anyway back to the house repairs Back later John
  41. 2 points
  42. 2 points
  43. 2 points
    That's putting it mildly compared to the Daily Excess headline : "DEADLY POLLUTION WARNING FOR NEXT 24 HOURS"... https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/468085/Return-of-the-KILLER-SMOG-Worst-pollution-in-60-YEARS-to-strike-Britain-TOMORROW The "KILLER-SMOG" is here ......I can just about see it though my Saharan dust covered windows, so I won't be going outside today not because I think I might die but because I won't be able to resist saying 'I told you so' to my neighbour who washed his car yesterday only for it to be covered in sand again this morning (I did tell him not to bother for a couple more days but some people just don't listen ) Pollution levels will be high for parts of England and Wales, but not quite to the extreme extent that the media are portraying...... http://rtlec.co.uk/killer-smog-coming-your-way-and-the-government-doesnt-want-you-to-know/ The very young and elderly, and especially people with respiratory and heart problems should take care, and if you use an inhaler then you need to make sure you have it with you but for the majority of people the poor air quality will have little effect as this is a short lived event with pollution levels decreasing from tomorrow! The DEFRA website has the latest information on air quality – http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/
  44. 2 points
    I haven't fallen for one for many years (probably early 90's) - there was an article on Countryfile about an animal called a 'stink toad' which was on the verge of extinction, I think due to its breeding habits (there were practically none of them left and they might have only been able to breed on one day of the year) I watched the whole article with interest and the penny only dropped when John Craven mentioned the breeding date... To be honest, my brain is too hardwired to fall for anything on April 1st now.
  45. 2 points
    De Bilt march 2014 achieved 8.4c, ranking 3rd warmest. And sunniest ´ever´.
  46. 2 points
  47. 1 point
    nah, just dusty mate :winky: :lol: oh, and just to add to that, i cleaned the car on the weekend got to go folks. have a good night everyone. night night
  48. 1 point
    YES WE KNOW THERE ARE FAULTS WITH THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!LOL This is a thread about despite all the faults wrong with the world and this country we should really count our blessing. And here you are trying to bring everyone down to your miserable level LOLWhy not try focusing on the positives rather than the negatives all the time.Any one would think that where you are concerned it is a crime to be happy and content.
  49. 1 point
    It sure has been a strange week for forecasts .. All I see is a drizzle monster?!
  50. 1 point
    Nice forecast, JP. Hope we do get some thunder action. It's been a lovely day here and as the sun went down, the sky looked like mother-of-pearl. Stunning. Hope we get many more days like today.
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