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Showing most liked content on 02/04/14 in all areas

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    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-04-02 08:39:48 Valid: 02/04/2014 0600z to 03/04/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of mainland Europe, bringing settled conditions. Slow-moving long-wave upper trough over eastern Atlantic will bring a warm southerly flow aloft across western Europe inc. the UK ... while surface low pressure to the SW of the UK draws in a dry easterly flow at the surface. ... SOUTHERN and WESTERN BRITAIN ... Southerly flow Warm Air Advection (WAA) aloft sourced from North Africa (responsible for Saharan sand particles recently) will drive a plume of steep lapse rates north across southern and western areas of the UK today. Sampled surface airmass is rather dry, though mid-levels air moister, with destabilisation of this mid-level moisture bringing some convective elements embedded in the mostly dynamic rainfall spreading in across southern and western areas today ahead of slow-moving cold front edging in across the west. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are likely above a stable boundary (surface) layer in the above areas today (see map), strong southerly flow may allow some organisation of cells, with a risk of hail, gusty winds, cg lightning and torrential downpours leading to localised flooding the main threats with any storms. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=b8f09079eaf8336b8b09f58ce1d05579
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    who would have thought that the only 'blowing and drifting' we were going to see in the region was sand and not snow...can we start a sand depth cup?
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    ECM and UKMO pretty close at t144 this morning GFS isn't too far behind either 8 day 2m temperature anomaly from GFS remains above average
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    When I saw my car yesterday I thought builders had been working near by its ridiculous took ages to clean. Picture attached
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    Can't argue with you there, PIT; Clegg was a complete and utter prat!
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    ECM showing an unsettled start to next week with it turning cooler for all by Tuesday pressure starts to build mid week
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    Auto glass replace, Auto glass repair!
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    GFS builds pressure at t144 Where as UKMO is slower keeping a rise in pressure reserved for the 2nd half of next week Unless ECM moves to GFS this evening I think we'll see GFS pushing the rise in pressure back to the 2nd half of next week bringing it in line with the met offices thought's in today's text update GFS 2m temperature anomaly remains above average
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    Bright white skies and 18.9c. Can still see the car so the killer smog sandstorm hell hasn't yet descended on us fully.
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    I know it's not really weather related but as your such a lovely bunch of people and this mouse was lost in Essex let's see if we can help him get home, he must be really missing his human companion.... Please contact me if you have lost this mouse https://www.facebook.com/nicola.palmer.370
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    One could write an awful lot about this and of course compared to the 19th century we are vastly better off. But for some reason,despite the great advances in medical science and people living far longer the image that springs into my mind is one of thousands living out their lives lonely and abandoned in god's waiting rooms. And is society any happier than it was sixty years ago?
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    I was raised on the 'sticks and stones....' mantra and I can't help thinking that society in general would benefit greatly from a bit of de-sensitivity, especially in respect of race and/or colour. Someone alluded to football earlier and it provides a great example of the double standards prevelent today. Any one calling a chubby player a fat ****, an older player an old ****, or a short player a stumpy **** normally generates howls of laughter, but surely they should be considered equally offensive and those shouting abuse on the basis of race or colour. As for fat, old, short players....well nuff said
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    Morning all That was a late night (blinking earthquakes phhhhhh) Sun trying to come out here http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile Some showers to our south thinking about coming in but look to be dying enroute Maybe someones got a giant duster to our south haha Anyway back to the house repairs Back later John
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    and September and October too, infact most of my thunderstorms occurred in October last year
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    Yes you're right. However good luck to any political party standing which wants to stand against that policy. EDIT: Hadn't seen your subsequent post - Labour at UK level (and I include some Scottish Labour MPs) are in favour of trident. Many within Scottish Labour (MSPs, councillors) are opposed and get to voice their opposition whilst not having any responsibility over it. There is no way, given the opportunity, that Scottish Labour would stand on a platform of housing Trident for the UK under any circumstances. They are not that stupid.
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    Got the rest of April, May, June, July and August left yet! We've had more than enough so far! This time last year, we were still getting snow from that nuisance Northeasterly and still SST's of like 3-4c, they're up to 9-10c already! This year looks so much more promising.
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    Mar 2014 CET.xlsMar 2014 CET.pdf
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    No lol sat on remote and activated audio description
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    17.5oC at Docklands, London at 12pm. Just drove back to North Kent and smoggy but still 14oC at 7pm
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    The dreadful 'soundtrack' to those Direct Line ads. Also, any advert which pays some sports star or another a fortune to mouth some scripted lines in the hope that it'll be enough to convince us that their products are worth buying. I find them too 'Quorny' for words....
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    Long heavy rainfall this morning that went on for an hour or more with a bit of hail. Also had some thunder and very dark clouds passed over. It's been nice having mild nights though I can't complain too much, except that it's rainy today. Current temp in Brean - 14 Degrees Pressure - 100 and falling Not really any wind. Roll on more sunny days!
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    I have very mixed feelings on "count your blessings", for I've had a lot of experience of trying to speak out about humanitarian concerns, or others being unreasonable, with the aim of improving things (rather than complaining for the sake of complaining) and being dismissed with, "The injustices that you are flagging up are trivial compared with those suffered by the starving children in Africa, so the onus, like it or not, is on you to just grin and bear it, stop getting worked up over nothing, and be thankful for how lucky you are." The biggest problem with "count your blessings" is that it can be misused to encourage complacency and keeping the status quo locked firmly in place instead of trying to make things better than they currently are. But of course apart from that, there are many good uses to it, as it can encourage positive thinking and an appreciation of the good things in life.
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    Ah...cheers John. Thought I'd missed a 2008 type event. I'll have a dekko at that.
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    Hi k No not here The one in Chile Occured just as i was going to bed so was updating info On the earthquake thread
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    Quite a contrast all right, shorts and t shirt weather yesterday yet just over a year ago I was sitting in a plane in Belfast for three hours with two foot of snow on the runway! Hopefully no late surprises this year
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    The difference is really stark between the ecm and gfs at day 10/T+240, shows again that model inconsistency that far out, just goes to show why its called "fantasy island"
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    From The Times Heat is on as Met Office is accused of a ‘warm bias’ in annual forecasts The Met Office’s method of predicting the annual increase in global average temperature may have a “warm biasâ€, according to a BBC weather forecaster. Paul Hudson said that the yearly headline predictions made by the Met Office had been “too warm†for 13 of the 14 years so far this century. April Fo............... you get the gist!
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    might be warm, may be cold, might be windy then not and may be wet but dry yeah, that will do it
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    Tx, I'm not offended by his words, I'm offended by his continual attempts to deliberately cause offence.
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    Hello all. Sorry I am still here and do look in every day, just very busy at the moment. Very pleasant day today after this morning's heavy fog. Very mild out tonight - sorry still not got the weather station sorted so no proper readings. It will probably go up when we have the tiles hung on the side of the house which suffered the worst weather. Hope all of you are well and thank you JP as usual for your charts.
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    Good ensemble agreement on heights building during the middle of next week
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    No worries ECM ends with high pressure still over most of England and Wales it remains warm as well The question is where the low in the Atlantic would end up beyond this
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    New Discovery: fossil dinosaur footprints in volcanic ash layers might challenge date of dinosaur extinction Monday Apr 01, 2014 00:01 AM | VolcanoDiscoveryRecently discovered dinosaur footprints in volcanic ash layers could challenge the widely accepted theory that dinosaurs got extinct 65 million years ago. What caused the end of the dinosaur era? There are several theories regarding the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous that ended the era of dinosaurs. Most accepted is the idea that the large meteorite impact which occurred around the same time was a key trigger for the mass extinction. Shortly before this impact, however, our planet also underwent a phase of unusually large volcanic eruptions. These are believed to have released huge amounts of volcanic gases and ash into the air,- something which is very likely to have had a severe negative effect on the dinosaurs’ health. A new discovery During routine fieldwork on a remote island volcano back in January 2013, volcanologist Ingrid Smet (Ghent University, Belgium) and Dr. Tom Pfeiffer (VolcanoDiscovery, www) came across a rare discovery: fossil dinosaur footprints in recently exposed volcanic ash layers. Stromboli volcano had a peak of activity during early January and suffered a major landslide on 12 January. The slide had carved into older layers on the steep slope of the volcano, exposing much older volcanic layers. In order to investigate the new crater configuration, Smet and Pfeiffer hiked up the volcano and found the dinosaur footprints by coincidence in a fresh outcrop near their route uphill, at approx. 600 m elevation, just above the upper level of vegetation which until then had conserved the footprints. http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/news/new-discovery-dinosaur-footprints-volcanic-ash-challenge-extinction-theory.html interesting findings and more in link above ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kīlauea volcano eruption update Week of March 31st, 2014Update Mon 31 Mar 22:28No significant changes in Kilaueas eruption activity over the past week - although the lava lake rose slightly to about 46m (151ft) below the floor of Halema`uma`u crater. The northeast spatter cone complex continued to feed the Kahauale`a 2 lava flow, though this flow is still not legally or safely accessible. Smoke plumes from forest fires during the day and glowing spots at night confirm that the flow remains active on the East Rift Zone of Kilauea as seen in this photo (courtesy of USGS). http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/hawaii/kilauea/current-activity.html
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    The problem with much of this analysis is that it is focused upon extreme events which are rare by their very nature, so are unlikely to be much of an indicator unless they became dramatically more frequent. The scale of precipitation increase should be proportional to the increase in vapour holding capacity which varies with temperature by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. A rough rule of thumb is only approximately 7% per °C which means that any precipitation increases so far may easily be disguised within natural variability, be they seasonal, annual or decadal eg. jet stream positions etc. So for example warmer years due to mild winters may be wetter, but drier if due to a hot summer. Anyway, the graph below compares scaled values annual EWP (divided by 10) and CET temperature(multiplied by 10) since 1931 as 20 year running means to smooth out some of the variability - there is a strong positive correlation of 0.78. The link appears to be stronger in more recent times and is certainly weaker if longer timescales are used, possibly as might be expected if AGW is prevalent later in the data. Taking end values gives an approximate temperature increase of 0.6°C and rainfall say from 910 to 960mm ~ 5.5% and maximum ranges of temperature and precipitation 0.89°C and 6.8% - thus roughly in line with what might be expected by Clausius-Clapeyron.
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    4am? Wth?! It stopped raining while I was at the beach, around 11pm .. The wind completely dropped, sea was like a millpond, sea fog came in, Poole vanished, and they issue a warning at 4am? I guess it is April fools day?!
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    Other peoples cats that krap on my lawns..... At least we had 9 weeks off when they were underwater!
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    The JTWC has marked two areas very close to each other (separated by the equator) as having 'low' chances of tropical development. Both areas of interest are located very close to the equator. This might trigger (or enhance) a possible Westerly Wind Burst (WWB), if I am correct. The GFS forecasts the northern hemisphere area of interest to develop into a potent tropical cyclone which would eventually impact the Philippines. This track forecast can be seen below: The minimum surface level pressure is indicated by the colour of the squares. What can be seen is that the GFS forecasts this low to have a minimum surface leve pressure (MSLP) around 990 hPa at the end of the forecast period (in about 5 days). This MSLP may well be underestimated due to the coarseness of the model. The other low in the southern hemisphere is not expected to develop, according to the GFS. The UKMET, on the contrary, does develop a significant tropical cyclone out of that area. For now, it will be mostly speculating, though, as the uncertainty is relatively high. Sources: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/
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    Hi Timeless, A good question it is. There are many ways to assess chances on severe thunderstorms, each with their own advantages and disadvantages. The Lifted Index is indeed a good way to assess whether severe weather development is possible or not. In short, this index tells something about the amount of instability in the atmosphere. I will not go into more detail on this variable in this post. CAPE Another widely used and good indicator for severe weather prediction is CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy). The CAPE, as the name says, indicates the amount of 'energy' an air parcel would contain if would be lifted vertically in the atmosphere. Generally, CAPE values above 1500 J/kg indicate thunderstorms are possible. The higher the CAPE, the higher the chance that thunderstorms will develop. Of a side note, the explanation given above is far too simple to fully understand the variable. If you would like to gain more information about this phenomenon, check the severe guide given below: http://www.estofex.org/guide/ On Wetterzentrale, there are also forecasts of CAPE and Lifted Index (LI) available from the GFS. Below is an example of such a chart for next Wednesday: GFS CAPE + LI (valid: Wednesday, 2 April, 18Z). The values for CAPE are indicated by the colour shadings (in this case mostly blue/green), and the LI-index values are given by the grey/white contours. The link to these charts can be found below: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html On the map above, an area of high CAPE-values along with negative LI-values can be seen extending from the south of Paris to Liverpool. This does not necessarily indicate that thunderstorms are likely in that area, but elevated chances do exist. "Modelweather" Another useful tool for thunderstorm predictability is the so-called "modelweather" (or Modellwetter in German). The forecasted weather by a model for every grid cell of a model is calculated and indicated by a symbol. For example, below is the GFS-modelweather analysis for Wednesday 18Z: GFS "Modellwetter" (valid: Wednesday 2 April, 18Z). The different symbols indicate the weather the model "expects" at every grid cell. What can be seen is that the GFS-model does show some risk on thunderstorm development on the 2nd of April near Liverpool. Moreover, showers are also possible in central Wales. Note that those charts should only be used as an indication of the expected weather, and not as a real forecast. The link to the charts is given below: http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html (select Modellwetter ZE in the dropdown menu). Wind shear A more easily understandable variable physical-wise is wind shear. Wind shear is the difference in wind speed and direction between two height levels in the atmosphere. As a rule, wind speed increases with height. The change in wind direction with height is more variable, though. Generally speaking, high levels of wind shear (thus a high difference in wind speed/direction with height) are favourable for thunderstorm development. Hence, it is an important parameter for thunderstorm development. Below is an example of such a wind shear map: Wind shear analysis from CIMSS. The arrows indicate the direction of the shear, while the yellow contours indicate the values of wind shear between two predefined levels. Because I don't know of any wind shear forecast maps of Europe alone, the only map I can present is the actual shear map given above. Sorry for the inconvenience. When you want a forecast for wind shear over a given day, it is also possible to compare wind maps of two different heights in the atmosphere and simply look at the difference in wind direction and strength. However, deciding which heights to take is a tricky one, as different height choices can result in different shear values. The link to the shear maps is given below: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/winds/ OR: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ ESTOFEX ESTOFEX is a very useful site/organization for assessing risks on thunderstorm development. ESTOFEX provides a map of risks on severe weather (including thunderstorms) of Europe, which is updated frequently. ESTOFEX works with a classification system, where category 1 indicates a slight risk on severe weather, category 2 indicates a high risk on severe weather. Finally, category 3 indicates there is also a risk on "extremely severe weather". The link to the site, as well as a more thorough description of the different warning levels can be found in the link below: http://www.estofex.org/ Furthermore, the website contains in-depth technical discussion about the areas highlighted as "danger zones". The discussion deals with the synoptic analysis (the analysis of the weather pattern present in terms of high/low pressure) and various severe weather parameters (including CAPE, LI and many more). c Finally, the website contains an elaborate guide (though possibly difficult to understand for ones with little background in meteorology) on the different severe weather indices, ingredients needed for thunderstorm development and a lot of other subjects related to severe weather. The link to the guide can be found below: http://www.estofex.org/guide/ I hope this post helps you a little in order to be able to understand and predict severe weather events. There are many different indices regarding severe weather development which can be explored as well. Quite often those indices are related to each other in some way, but the links are usually rather complex. If you have any questions or remarks left, feel free to ask/tell. EDIT: Added wind shear analysis for a more complete overview of severe weather parameters. Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective_available_potential_energy http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Thunderstorm-Probability.htm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/help/sfcoa.html http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/CAPE---Convective-Available-Potential-Energy.htm http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html http://www.estofex.org/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_shear http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
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    Sinitta She had a two bit pop career in the late 80s, which was nowt special but because she is one of Simon Cowell's cronies, she pops up here there and everywhere.
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    Another melt season soon under way with all the fan fare. I wonder if we will get additional cloud cover because of increase thawing ice , a positive feed back mechanism Given the arctic has been warm this winter I predict another cool summer up there. Min 6m ???
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    May as well have all months this year from March above average CET now and save the chance of below average CET's for winter 2014/2015.
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    I have tried to find Mrs Brown's Boys funny, but no matter how hard I try, I can't.
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    i have tried getting into this...however i find it all very predictable you can see the punchlines coming from miles away ....often the delivery apart from the main actor seems to be very slow clumsy and wooden...however my mum loves it!
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    Mine is here in the Rockies in my own town - Quarry lake - which has a small beach. Perfect those hot summer days
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