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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/04/14 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-04-02 08:39:48 Valid: 02/04/2014 0600z to 03/04/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of mainland Europe, bringing settled conditions. Slow-moving long-wave upper trough over eastern Atlantic will bring a warm southerly flow aloft across western Europe inc. the UK ... while surface low pressure to the SW of the UK draws in a dry easterly flow at the surface. ... SOUTHERN and WESTERN BRITAIN ... Southerly flow Warm Air Advection (WAA) aloft sourced from North Africa (responsible for Saharan sand particles recently) will drive a plume of steep lapse rates north across southern and western areas of the UK today. Sampled surface airmass is rather dry, though mid-levels air moister, with destabilisation of this mid-level moisture bringing some convective elements embedded in the mostly dynamic rainfall spreading in across southern and western areas today ahead of slow-moving cold front edging in across the west. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are likely above a stable boundary (surface) layer in the above areas today (see map), strong southerly flow may allow some organisation of cells, with a risk of hail, gusty winds, cg lightning and torrential downpours leading to localised flooding the main threats with any storms.http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=b8f09079eaf8336b8b09f58ce1d05579
  2. 5 points
    Yes by the weekend and into next week the models are showing a return to a more westerly pattern so the air quality should improve after tomorrow as we finally lose that se continental drift. We can see on Fridays fax the change moving in from the Atlantic as frontal systems carry some rain and showers across the country washing out the dust and pollution as the flow turns into the sw. After that we look like developing that nw/se split we often talk about with low pressure and fronts closer to Scotland and N.ireland and the continental high pressure never too far from the south. The ens means for this time next week show the weaker jet which has been straddling the country starting to move north as the High builds into the south of the UK. so whilst the next few days still look rather changeable with some showery rain about,as we go into next week it looks much better as fine conditions start to move further north.
  3. 4 points
    ECM and UKMO pretty close at t144 this morning GFS isn't too far behind either 8 day 2m temperature anomaly from GFS remains above average
  4. 3 points
    With a minimum today of 7.5C, and maxima likely to reach about 17.5C (mean ~12.5, record high mean = 13.9C), we should see an increase to 11.9C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 12.5C to the 3rd (13.5) [record high = 15.0] 12.4C to the 4th (12.1) [record high = 15.6] 11.9C to the 5th (10.0) 12.3C to the 6th (14.0) [record high = 15.1 in 2011, 2nd highest just 13.2] 12.6C to the 7th (14.4) [record high = 14.7] 12.5C to the 8th (11.9) 12.0C to the 9th (8.1) The first to the 8th of April, according to the GFS, would be the warmest such period on record, by 0.3C (over 1926). It would be about 9C warmer than 2013 for that period too. It's not unusual SB, 39 previous Aprils have recorded double digit means on the first day. I think there are only 2 days that haven't recorded a double digit mean in the whole year, January 8th and 28th.
  5. 2 points
    All I will say is thank the Lord the winter is over and a bit of sun & warmth is hopefully on its way. No endless snow flake watching for the next few months!! Bliss.
  6. 2 points
    After a cold week in parts of the east and north east it will become warmer from Saturday according to GFS Saturday sees south westerly winds replacing the east to south easterlies of this week with this some of the lowest temperatures transfer to the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid teens A similar pictures on Sunday with some of the lowest temperatures in the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid to high teens possibly 20c in the south Its a warm start to next week as well away from some north western parts with south westerly winds staying allowing temperatures in the east to rise possibly hitting 22c in some parts Tuesday then sees low pressure over Scotland more settled the further south you are, cooler in the north but staying warm in the far south (mid 20s in parts France as the heat builds for them) By Wednesday the high builds for the UK temperatures recover to the mid teens for the midlands south high teens possible for the far south still single figures for some in Scotland Over the next 8 days the GFS 2m temperature anomaly shows temperatures staying above normal for the UK and a lot of Europe
  7. 2 points
    I know it's not really weather related but as your such a lovely bunch of people and this mouse was lost in Essex let's see if we can help him get home, he must be really missing his human companion.... Please contact me if you have lost this mouse https://www.facebook.com/nicola.palmer.370
  8. 2 points
    Looking at the ECMWF for next week starting on Sunday. The first couple of days have low pressure to the NW and High to the SE with the UK the sandwich filling in a fresh south westerly airstream. By Tuesday the low has nudged it’s way into Scotland with the wind veering more westerly but still fresh. This is but a brief victory as the high pressure kicks it out of the way and by Wednesday and dominates for the next couple of days. In fact for the rest of the week really although by Friday and especially Saturday it’s weakened and retreated SE giving a more southerly flow over the UK. This gives fairly average temps at the beginning of the week especially in the west but these will pick up as the week progresses and by the end we could be looking at 18-19 in the east but still around 12-14 in Cornwall and about the same up north although around Shawbury could be 17C To sum up the 850 hPa temp anomaly and the 500 hPa Geopotential Height anomaly until Saturday the 12th.
  9. 2 points
    The previous post assumes that the variability remains broadly similar i.e that the synoptic patterns of extreme events don't become more frequent and that increased rainfall is only due to increased temperature. This increase may allow a very small number of events to be classified higher, but it's hard to determine whether a 1000 year event is now 1 in 500 years or even if a 1 in 100 year is now a 1 in 50, and whether they were the direct results of warming. Bearing that in mind, on reflection the previous post could still be seen as a bit of a cop-out by not examining extremes at all - surely some possible warming affect should be visible? Using the EWP daily data since 1931 (noting that this covers a wide area rather than the more localised extreme events), there are 25202 days up to the arbitrary date of 1/1/2000 and 5173 since then. Creating simple probability distribution functions of the proportion of days of rainfall from the total days shows the higher rainfall experienced in recent years. 10mm raindays have been 14.76% more frequent since 2000 compared to prior. 12.7mm (half inch) 29.23% 15mm 38.42% 20mm 82.69% 25.4mm (one inch) 192.31% - only 10 days 1931-99 compared to 6 since 2000 they have occurred almost 3 times as often. This seems a bit more dramatic than expected and it turns out that HadUKP data since the start of 2006 has been recalculated so the process was repeated with data from 1931-89 and 1990-2005 10mm increase 11.46% 12.7mm 19.03% 15mm 31.58% 20mm 50.23% 25.4mm 10.63% Now the increases aren't as great, but follow the same trend apart from the dramatic increase for the highest totals. The difference in the results could be an issue with data homogeneity though we know we have had numerous extreme events since 2006, it could be natural variability particularly for small samples but also more generally - the 1990s coincided with a particularly positive phase of AO for example, or it could be that it has been generally warmer more recently.
  10. 2 points
    Morning all That was a late night (blinking earthquakes phhhhhh) Sun trying to come out here http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile Some showers to our south thinking about coming in but look to be dying enroute Maybe someones got a giant duster to our south haha Anyway back to the house repairs Back later John
  11. 2 points
  12. 2 points
  13. 2 points
    That's putting it mildly compared to the Daily Excess headline : "DEADLY POLLUTION WARNING FOR NEXT 24 HOURS"... https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/468085/Return-of-the-KILLER-SMOG-Worst-pollution-in-60-YEARS-to-strike-Britain-TOMORROW The "KILLER-SMOG" is here ......I can just about see it though my Saharan dust covered windows, so I won't be going outside today not because I think I might die but because I won't be able to resist saying 'I told you so' to my neighbour who washed his car yesterday only for it to be covered in sand again this morning (I did tell him not to bother for a couple more days but some people just don't listen ) Pollution levels will be high for parts of England and Wales, but not quite to the extreme extent that the media are portraying...... http://rtlec.co.uk/killer-smog-coming-your-way-and-the-government-doesnt-want-you-to-know/ The very young and elderly, and especially people with respiratory and heart problems should take care, and if you use an inhaler then you need to make sure you have it with you but for the majority of people the poor air quality will have little effect as this is a short lived event with pollution levels decreasing from tomorrow! The DEFRA website has the latest information on air quality – http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/
  14. 2 points
    I haven't fallen for one for many years (probably early 90's) - there was an article on Countryfile about an animal called a 'stink toad' which was on the verge of extinction, I think due to its breeding habits (there were practically none of them left and they might have only been able to breed on one day of the year) I watched the whole article with interest and the penny only dropped when John Craven mentioned the breeding date... To be honest, my brain is too hardwired to fall for anything on April 1st now.
  15. 2 points
    De Bilt march 2014 achieved 8.4c, ranking 3rd warmest. And sunniest ´ever´.
  16. 2 points
  17. 1 point
    With the Winter half of the year now behind us it's agood time to start a new thread to take us through the warmer part of the year. This thread is for all general comments around the weather charts and model outputs wrt what members hope for or are disappointed in etc. A more loosely based thread where you can give freer rein to your views but of course usual forum rules for respectful and polite postings still apply. Ok continue when ready.
  18. 1 point
    Long heavy rainfall this morning that went on for an hour or more with a bit of hail. Also had some thunder and very dark clouds passed over. It's been nice having mild nights though I can't complain too much, except that it's rainy today. Current temp in Brean - 14 Degrees Pressure - 100 and falling Not really any wind. Roll on more sunny days!
  19. 1 point
    Morning all. Quite murky here too at the moment; a big change from yesterday, albeit the sunshine then was hazy. I'm actually looking forward to the rain late tomorrow, to clear this crappy air, even though a temperature fall will be the downside. Looking at JP's ensembles, it seems to me that temperatures will only drop to average levels anyway - 13C or so for mid April.
  20. 1 point
    New Discovery: fossil dinosaur footprints in volcanic ash layers might challenge date of dinosaur extinction Monday Apr 01, 2014 00:01 AM | VolcanoDiscoveryRecently discovered dinosaur footprints in volcanic ash layers could challenge the widely accepted theory that dinosaurs got extinct 65 million years ago. What caused the end of the dinosaur era? There are several theories regarding the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous that ended the era of dinosaurs. Most accepted is the idea that the large meteorite impact which occurred around the same time was a key trigger for the mass extinction. Shortly before this impact, however, our planet also underwent a phase of unusually large volcanic eruptions. These are believed to have released huge amounts of volcanic gases and ash into the air,- something which is very likely to have had a severe negative effect on the dinosaurs’ health. A new discovery During routine fieldwork on a remote island volcano back in January 2013, volcanologist Ingrid Smet (Ghent University, Belgium) and Dr. Tom Pfeiffer (VolcanoDiscovery, www) came across a rare discovery: fossil dinosaur footprints in recently exposed volcanic ash layers. Stromboli volcano had a peak of activity during early January and suffered a major landslide on 12 January. The slide had carved into older layers on the steep slope of the volcano, exposing much older volcanic layers. In order to investigate the new crater configuration, Smet and Pfeiffer hiked up the volcano and found the dinosaur footprints by coincidence in a fresh outcrop near their route uphill, at approx. 600 m elevation, just above the upper level of vegetation which until then had conserved the footprints. http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/news/new-discovery-dinosaur-footprints-volcanic-ash-challenge-extinction-theory.html interesting findings and more in link above ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kīlauea volcano eruption update Week of March 31st, 2014Update Mon 31 Mar 22:28No significant changes in Kilaueas eruption activity over the past week - although the lava lake rose slightly to about 46m (151ft) below the floor of Halema`uma`u crater. The northeast spatter cone complex continued to feed the Kahauale`a 2 lava flow, though this flow is still not legally or safely accessible. Smoke plumes from forest fires during the day and glowing spots at night confirm that the flow remains active on the East Rift Zone of Kilauea as seen in this photo (courtesy of USGS). http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/hawaii/kilauea/current-activity.html
  21. 1 point
    It's more like November than April out there....oh wait a minute, I forgot, it is still November, it's the 152nd of November today Does someone want to phone Mother Nature and tell her she's forgotten to change her calendar since the 30th of November 2013?
  22. 1 point
    It was certainly exceptionally hazy here today. Normally "polluted" days with broken cloud cover produce striking "crepuscular ray" effects and orange hues near the horizon, as was true during the high pollution episoide in April 2011, but today's skies resembled sunshine attempting to break through fog and it was too hazy even for the crepuscular rays. Having read around the subject there appears to be strong evidence that particulate matter (especially PM10) is strongly correlated with pollution-related haze. I had a stay in Norwich between Wednesday and Sunday and the PM10 concentrations were mostly around 50-60 there over the weekend but have dropped since then, while most sites in Yorkshire are registering values of at least 60 right now. I have to revise my earlier assessments along the lines of "only dangerous for a significant percentage of people in London". They were based largely on what we saw during the April 2011 spell, when air quality ratings were Low or Moderate in most parts of the country with High ratings mostly confined to London, but at present High and Very High ratings are widespread, even in some relatively rural parts of the country. Regarding EU emissions targets, it's fine requiring us to keep our domestic emissions levels down to stay within targets, but what do we do when large "background" levels of pollution are carried over from the continent on a south-easterly wind? This was an issue during April 2011 and it is also an issue now.
  23. 1 point
    Got mizuna, chard, spinach, sorrel, coriander, spring onions, marigolds, chillies and sweet peppers on the go so far. Only a few of each to fit on a balcony mind. Good to be using some seed from last years grow for the peppers, mizuna and coridander.. feels good somehow!
  24. 1 point
    I'm not sure if anyone has noticed here, but there seems to be a new feature on CT called "Arctic Weather Forecasts", just below the main Arctic concentration image. It has some very cool animations of temperature, wind, geopotential height and others, based off the GFS. http://globalweatherlogistics.com/seaiceforecasting/
  25. 1 point
    May as well have all months this year from March above average CET now and save the chance of below average CET's for winter 2014/2015.
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