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An amazing thunderstorm here about 40 minutes ago. Such convective dark skies. Scary skies almost. Here are some pictures and short video clip of a strike.As the storm approaches https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19696-convective-skies/ Tail end of a good fork https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19697-storm-hits/ Short cliphttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S3xOACiXpY&feature=youtu.be

Small clip from this evening

A brand new thread then to continue discussions on the models as we go into a new month. Current outputs show a warm up from the south during this week but with some rain or showers about. This off the back of a plume of warm continental air moving north into southern areas on a more southerly flow sandwiched between an Atlantic trough and a blocking high just to our east. Latest runs suggest some cooling at the end of the week as the Atlantic fronts bring in a more westerly flow but with High pressure still showing it's hand over the continent by then it will be interesting to see what the further outlook into next week will be. At the moment a more traditional nw/se type of split looks the more likely prospect but let's see how the 12z runs deal with this later. OK then continue below when ready.

tonight http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ watch and see certainly not cold tomorrow a weak southerly flow rainfall in the morning it starts dry still dry but the odd shower here and there late afternoon-early evening the fax shows a warm from crossing us from the south this would then increase the risk of a few rumbles for us temps around 16 degrees and maybe an 18 locally tomorrow night still a weak mainly southerly flow rainfall up to around midnight the storm risk is here drops away after temps probably around 7-9 degrees and will feel humid watch for mist and fog patches early wed morning -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- wednesday still under a southerly flow rain at present that looks dry however the far west of the region may see something stormy ( radar watch for wed) temps around 16-19 degrees ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- wednesday night a slightly more breezy south-south easterly flow rainfall again looks mainly dry for us however the odd localised storm cannot be ruled out ( another radar watch needed) temps 10-12 degrees and will feel humid again watch for more widespread fog overnight ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ thursday a variable flow south west-southerly rainfall starts dry early but more widespread thunderstorms likely today temps around 16-18 degrees so overall warm some thundery bits cloud and fog an issue but also some sunny spells too ie a bit of variation there anyway hope your all well be back later

Well the models are churning out now, lets see what the following week offers UKMO going for a traditional west/south westerly pattern GFS has the high a little further north so more areas will be dry Again if the low in the Atlantic gets enough time it could pull some very warm air up from north Africa Another plume possible next week if we are lucky, this time north eastern areas could get some very warm weather with winds from the South west as opposed to the south east this week.

When it comes to the physical sciences, the IPCC report is essentially a summary of the current state of our scientific understanding of the global climate and how it's changing, based on analysis of many thousands of peer reviewed papers.The recent report hasn't found methane to be a more potent GHG, that's something that's been known for a very long time. What it may have suggested is that methane could play a more important role in future climate change than previously estimated. This seems reasonable given the large changes seen in the Arctic and the large methane reservoirs that can be destabilised there.I'm not sure what the report has said about fracking, if you could supply a link, then I'd be happy to comment on it.But I can tell you one thing, the scientists involved in the IPCC reports are global experts and certainly do know what there talking about!

ive bought a boltek ld 350 lightning detector which i'm still waiting for,so in the mean time have had the time to setup my map using the Astrogenic nexstorm & Stormvue ngx its not showing live data yet because i need the dtector on. tell me what you think the link is below its got buttons so you can change zoom strike time ect. it should be uploading data this weekend i'll let you know all comments welcome. Thel link is below http://andys-uk-lightning-detector.net/stormvue/StormVueNG.swf

Maybe not for Cornwall, but it shows decent weather, to my eyes, for a lot of the populace.

Yep very respectable indeed warm southerlies and April showers could be a lot worse 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average UK wide Average 2m temps left expected 2m temps right

I should hope not, in a high plaice like that! Sorry, couldn't resist it! Been a pleasant day here, a odd very light spot of rain with a slightly sultry feel now and then. The radar looks like things are pepping up out to the southwest. Could be an interesting evening for some!

Metoffice yellow warning for rain for showers and thunderstorms this evening! EDIT: NW England and NW Midlands.

Could get interesting across SW England, Wales and eventually NW England later, as an upper shortwave/cold front moves NE destabilising the air. Storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=a59b4692780e8cdd08d217290bc68648

With the Winter half of the year now behind us it's agood time to start a new thread to take us through the warmer part of the year. This thread is for all general comments around the weather charts and model outputs wrt what members hope for or are disappointed in etc. A more loosely based thread where you can give freer rein to your views but of course usual forum rules for respectful and polite postings still apply. Ok continue when ready.

A nice new thread folks. We are looking at a possibility of storms over the next few days. So please carry on the discussion here and good good luck everyone.

Theres nowt as daft as folk. 3 days ago, thanks to the excellent forecasts here and elsewhere I alerted my neighbours and a wider audience to the fact we were likely to be dusted by sand from the Sahara so my advice to them all was don't bother cleaning your cars for now, because this dust is going to be hanging around for a few days yet, and if it rains their cars will be covered in the stuff again. Lo and behold on Monday morning my neighbours woke up to find their cars covered in a film of Saharan dust, and the local car washes had folk literally queing up to pay as much as £20 a pop, that's supply and demand at it's best. I warned them again throughout the day they were wasting their time and money but did they listen ? Well some did, those that didn't will wake up to a dust covered car again in the morning because a light shower here has just dropped another coating, all over their bright shiny cars.

I had slight hope for an evening thunderstorm , but I knew it was too good to be true here , being realistic its going to be just moderate rain here no doubt, then again I had a 3 flashes of night lightning on thursday, thats the years quota used up then

I have an idea it's not this summary but this, Could be wrong of course. More Bad News For Fracking: IPCC Warns Methane Traps Much More Heat Than We Thought The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that methane (CH4) is far more potent a greenhouse gas than we had previously realized. This matters to the fracking debate because methane leaks throughout the lifecycle of unconventional gas. Natural gas is, after all, mostly methane (CH4). We learned last month that the best fracked wells appear to have low emissions of methane, but that study likely missed the high-emitting wells that result in the vast majority of methane leakage. Back in August, a NOAA-led study measured a stunning 6% to 12% methane leakage over one of the country’s largest gas fields — which would gut the climate benefits of switching from coal to gas. We’ve known for a long time that methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2), which is released when any hydrocarbon, like natural gas, is burned. But the IPCC’s latest report, released Monday (big PDF here), reports that methane is 34 times stronger a heat-trapping gas than CO2 over a 100-year time scale, so its global-warming potential (GWP) is 34. That is a nearly 40% increase from the IPCC’s previous estimate of 25.

Unfortunately real data never goes down well in some circles. I wouldn't want to 'sell' global warming to the self facing Americans

I'm sure the north west is surrounded by a giant copper earthing rod !!....

Shame it all seems to have pulled together into one big messy area of rain. Maybe the odd sferic somewhere in among it overnight.

Conversely the ECM is pretty dire, wet and windy Could get a northerly as the Azores high retrogresses but I think it would be completely toothless though.

GEM continuing to show pressure rising next week could be looking at a north westerly flow for a time keeping it slightly cooler for the north but the south holds onto the warmth which starts to move back north at the end

'Twas a genuine question because despite my failing eyesight some of your posts have me reaching for the blinkers they are that large. I see there are a few thunderstorms breaking out further west this afternoon and evening, pretty much as predicted by the knowledgable folk on NW and elsewhere. It's been quite a lively start to the year one way or another.

He said: "This has then risen to a height where the dust is transported quite quickly over Europe and the UK by high level winds. Rain then washes the dust out of the atmosphere, bringing it down in the raindrops. We then see the dust when the rain dries out – and it’s particularly noticeable on shiny surfaces, like cars.Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/31/sahara-rain-cars-desert-dust-pictures_n_5061617.html

Let's hope the land turns these into proper bad boy storms

Plenty of high temperatures on show this afternoon from GFS could be getting close to or just above 20c quite a few times over the next 2 weeks in some southern parts what a difference a year makes! By Saturday the NE sees temperatures rising thanks to the wind switching direction its the east which sees the best temperatures initially Temperatures back on the rise widely The lowest charts are way out in FI with high pressure over the UK

Can't see too much to get excited about.

current state of play, with heavy showers developing over the Midlands, and more thunderstorms brewing over the English Channel heading towards the Dorset/West Hants coastline drifting NNW

Very respectable GFS 12z churning out now. Lots of light southerly breezes bringing relatively warm uppers in some more temperatures of 15-21c for many beyond the weekend.

As it currently stands (note the current bit) storms developing over the english channel are very unlikely to affect anywhere near London or the south east. They are likely to be elevated in nature (as per Nick F's storm forecast) and the steering winds for these storms will bring them due north or just west of north of their current position to landfall over Dorset and West Hants and drift slowly north/north west over Western Hants/Dorset/Wilts and into the west Midlands over the next few hours into the overnight period, providing of course they hold together.......As to any thing developing further east in the English Channel, who knows?

Apropos nothing at all really but it's a lousy day and it's an interesting read. http://geology.com/records/biggest-tsunami.shtml

Ext ecm suggesting a cooling trend from wkend onwards.. With the 10-15 dayer temp anom below average for all. Cfs ensembles, pick up from where ecm ends, days 15-25, continue to promote cooling trend into latter end of April. The last 12 or so updates from CFS has shown this period (April 15-25th) to be below average.

Ah....right. I'd prefer there to be some T&L mixed in though. :)Aaaand here it is.

Sun trying to break through in Surbiton with very high but continuous milky clouds overhead presumably thinning. Yes it was hard getting started this morning after the clocks changed yesterday but at least I'm working from home so avoided the dreaded journey in - husband did it instead to get son to school and struggled to not have a nervous breakdown in the traffic. Will check later to see how SW London faired in the Saharan Sand Storm stakes. Talking of sand, off to St Lucia on Thursday first thing. A bit bogged down with clearing work to get excited, but I know deep down I can't wait to get some lovely sunshine and hopefully snorkelling. Will be watching JP's updates with interest for airport conditions. We are checking in the night before and staying at Gatwick Hilton - travel outfits are exercising us greatly at the moment in conjunction with what to put in hand luggage 'just in case'...

Yes, I think that with pockets of MLCAPE values of up to 400 kj (Mixed Layer Convective Potential Energy as calculated using a parcel consisting of Mean Layer values of temperature and moisture from the lowest 100 mb above ground level) INVOF (in the vicinity of) cold front heading NE from SW England through W Midlands, NW England and to NE parts there is justifiable confidence for a scattering of elevated thundery downpours to occur this afternoon and evening in aforementioned areas. I am sure many of you will be primed for the action, with cameras and cars poised to chase cells that show particular conventional potential. Regards Tom

Something to do with the Camels maybe ? ....no Sahara sand on my car.....just some bird poop - I wouldn't mind but it was washed yesterday Graphic from Windy Wilson's Twitter page showing the extent of Saharan dust currently in the air over the UK being brought northward by south/south easterly winds. Some of this likely to fall to the surface in any showers over the next few days. https://twitter.com/WindyWilson88/status/450564714141974528/photo/1 ...makes a change from rain I suppose.....happy Monday

Hellen peaked at 135kts, just shy of cat 5. Hellen has now weakened to 125kts due to land interaction and dry air entrainment. The dangerous cyclone has stubbornly continued southeast, so landfall is now imminent on northwestern Madagascar. Hellen will spend a while over land, before possibly emerging over the Mozambique Channel when the westward turn finally materialises. It is then expected to move across the channel before making a second landfall, this time on the coast of Mozambique. Significant reintensification over the channel appears unlikely due to the presense of moderate shear and dry air at the lattitude Hellen emerges over water.

I'm hoping there'll be some in Manchester too as I'll be at MediaCity for the next two weeks (14th floor too - so will have awesome views).Fingers all crossed.

You may get more than just a veiw

Funny how you ignore verified stats from a reliable source

yes, had to get the hose out and give the cars a swill down !

thursday south-south west flow about 15-16 degrees and humid dry am some storms possible pm ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- friday a breezy south west flow chance of something stormy early then dry after temps a shade cooler around 12-14 degrees ukmo at 144 if correct wet and a lot cooler thats a big if at present

Could be interesting come tomorrow into afternoon for Wales and the Midlands and then this will drift North into the evening.

Pretty much what I thought. Can't wait for a couple of months when we can gather round, watching the radar, will they, won't they & then get mad as they all drift into Belgium & Holland!

Evening all What a fantastic day it turned out to be, first time I have stepped out this year and gone out without a coat on. Sun came out in force during the afternoon and made for a rather remarkably warm day. Shame that is the weekend over already.

That would be 11th Feb, good chart that, this time last year easter sunday, one of coldest ever, still was winter, Tue 2 Apr had my last snow last year

Effect of important air pollutants may be absent from key precipitation observations

Almost certainly the record for the coldest temp of the winter[the highest minimum] will be broken,held by 1990 at -8.4 deg unless april can produce!

May as well have all months this year from March above average CET now and save the chance of below average CET's for winter 2014/2015.