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This little feature needs watching for parts of England and Wales into the early hours period of Saturday, the 528DAM line is shown in amongst a band of squally wintriness heading ever Eastwards during the aforementioned timeframe. The Beeb mentioned this in passing and it could be that it surprises a few by providing a brief covering of wet snow by morning, should the timing of its passing occur as shown. It will be down to viewing of the NAE, NMM etc. for closer inspection nearer the time.

A shock to the system from tomorrow morning as the cold air pushes S/E this evening bringing much colder temps for all. There are still the continued chances of snow/sleet/hail especially for the North, but even parts of Wales could see wintry weather including the spine of the UK over the weekend. The GFS continues to paint an unsettled and cool period of weather for all of Britain into April, With only the very far South sometimes becoming a little warmer due to High Pressure trying to push in, but the colder air seems to win out as in recent runs. FI looks very unsettled indeed and has done for a good few days now.

To all, Thankyou for your words of wisdom, virtual hugs, messages and kind well wishes. I look like I've done a couple of rounds with Mike Tyson right now and your support is appreciated and valued as I read through all your posts. My best Alix.

UKMO shows pressure slowly rising by mid week ECM isn't so keen GFS try's to follow UKMO Beyond t144 ECM does build pressure

Morning all, My thoughts are with Alixzandra at what is a difficult time for you. Keep strong, and if you ever need a virtual hug you have come to the right place. This thread and the community spirit we have on here is amazing all year round, but particularly during the time when some of our members go through difficult times. Weather wise, it's a lovely morning out there - much better already than yesterday was with our promise of sun and temperatures in the late teens by the afternoon! However, I see a change is brewing and we are in for some colder more unsettled weather. In a strange way, I am looking forward to hearing the rain beat on the windows again - but just as long as it doesn't last the whole of spring!!

looks like 6-9C in the north with the south remaining in double figures. Yes frosts by night but nothing special for March and still for most at low levels there will still not be any snow. Higher levels again could get some but again they got loads during the winter as they were high enough for the copious amounts of rain to turn to snow. The biggest middle finger from the models this morning is the cross model support for some kind of high to form to our north east with low pressure disrupting and heading south east through the UK. Would be typical to pick up an easterly now as it do nothing but bring in lots of low cloud.

At least he constantly posts through the year. He obviously likes his warm weather, but his posts don't generally show a model run perturbation (which I'm not condemning, by the way...) and I, for one, appreciate his efforts.

ECM finishes on a pleasant note with warm air wafting northwards off the continent.

Very robust Scandi high forming on the ECM. Very common to happen during Spring and the surface conditions really depend on the flow around the high. Winds south of east generally bring sunny conditions whilst north of east can bring a lot of cloud with the time of year deciding how far inland the cloud gets. Also there might be rain in the south east quarter which might take some time to clear away which also adds some issues for some. If the ECM is right, then that high could stick around for a long time. The later frames do show an improvement with drier and warmer air moving up from southern europe so the low cloud would break up for most to allow warm sunny spells.

The sun came out earlier just as I left for the bank so on my drive back I stopped off at the Peace Pagoda by Willen Lake for a bit of mind clearing and ‘meditation’ – I realised it was the Vernal Equinox as well as International Day of Happiness (also day 6 of my #100daysofhappiness) and came over all ‘Wordsworth’ when I saw these Daffs (they are a bit like me really, past their best but still glorious in the sunshine ) I WANDER'D lonely as a cloud That floats on high o'er vales and hills, When all at once I saw a crowd, A host of golden daffodils, Beside the lake, beneath the trees, Fluttering and dancing in the breeze. x

Afternoon my friends xx to Alixzandra (you are welcome) keep the faith. As AJ said (and think has discovered) this thread is about the weather but it is a weather community of like minded people that like/love/care and the friendship as bjkent it said draws you back, one of the best homes on the internet I have been able to find (might explain why I keep coming back too). Think we keep the balance, mood and sense here rather well. And it has been a rather breezy day here, plenty of debris (mainly bins) being blown about here, it has remained dry so far and even had the sun pop out few times during the day too, but feeling cooler in the wind. I trust and hope you all have a good day and for those that need it heres a hug for you

After the bitter cold snap this weekend causes temperatures to plummet to 9C, it looks likely that high pressure will build in again during next week. I predict this will be hard to shift and will last into April.

Alix, my thoughts are with you and your father. AS has it right a father is the comedian of the family, it's him that is first to say it will be alright, it's him whose duty it is to make you laugh when you fall and scarp your knee. But at the moment he can't do that, so he properly would just like a cuddle and a nice hug at the moment, I know I would. Keep strong. Cloudy day today, with a heavy dew. Been busy designing this week, had 2 absolutely fabulous days, desk is full of calculations, quotations, drawing, sketches and screwed up bits of paper, been a right old mad professor. Thoughts only on problem solving, and boy are there some problems to be solved. Designed a new evaporator (the bit of kit the cold air comes out off), quiet proud of that. Redesigned everything else, calculated all the volumes and pipe lengths, today's job, is to crack the defrost system. Bet you are impressed as the wife when I explained the ne evaporator to her, thought she could have kept awake. Oh well better get on.

I'm feeling pretty numb, my Dad has been fighting hard since August, had part of his throat removed in a major op including voice box, then intensive radiotherapy. Had a stroke today, the nerves in his throat are all burnt out from the radio, it's difficult to take it all in. He has the heart of a lion, and will to stay with us, for the sake of us, but it's not enough. Just trying to draw some strength from somewhere for tomorrow, to make him laugh through the reality (its what me and my sister do, we make him laugh), even though the pain is unbearable for him and us. The weather, it's been cold, with a bitter wind today.

Evening people Ive been noticing how much calmer the atlantic looks to get at long last! Now for the spring and into summer, it is an early punt, but I've been looking at the sea temperatures around the world, and there seems to be much warmer than usual oceans at the moment. I think that this could lead to some weird synoptics and affect steering winds and trade winds greatly, that could produce some unthinkable weather for parts of Europe and even the UK, + other parts of the world too in different ways. I know I may have egg on my face at the end of summer! But I think that we could see some scorching weather and an unusual summer as opposed to typical ones. Perhaps a 1975 style summer is what I'm going to go for. A lot of high pressure, with low pressure over Greenland and to our North, with a Northerly jetstream. More to the fact that in recent history, decent summers have had the tendency to come in pairs, so if that is anything to go by, with 2013 being quite a scorcher, this one may well shock us all !

Right, words such as the following are banned "Wintry,snow, frost, sleet, ice, cold, rain, wind, gales" and similar, and must henceforth be replace by "un-seasonal or un-wanted", I hope this concensus will force the actual weather to re-think its game and get back to the calm warm mild conditions it was taking up. Anyone found to be flouting these rules will be sent to either AJPS or MKSA for punishment. Still raining here (and dark spookily enough) JP I do not favour your chances

Kind of like my sentiments expressed fairly frequently in recent days. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2946614 To be fair, we are both clutching at straws and as ever, time will tell. The next five days look far from warm and pretty much come in at below average by day for the most part of the British Isles. Hopefully, aside from today's rainfall in Southern England, it will be a largely dry period with only brief but fleeting showers. It could get a fair bit warmer down in my neck of the woods as the week progresses but at the moment, the focus has to be on what the "cool snap" will deliver.

I don't remember any cold snaps during the last 4 months, indeed, some parts of the uk haven't had a single snow flake and barely a frost either..that is why I think it's noteworthy that the BBC weather summary for the weekend is :- Chilly Wintry Showers Frosty nights Sounds wintry to me...

April CET statistics and trivia 19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775) 16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945) 11.8 ... warmest April (2011) 11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007) 10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865) 10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943) 9.1 ... average for 2001-13 9.0 ... average for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2013, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 7.5 ... 2013 CET 7.3 ... average for 1659-1700 5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century) 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799) 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837) -0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772) -0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799) _______________________________________________________ Post your forecast before April 1st (late penalties apply 1-3 April)

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ tonights weather see above --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow a breezy but less strong south west to west wind rainfall looks likely going by the fax chart it should stay dry although cloudy temps around 10-12 degrees and maybe slightly lower the far north of the region ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night a breezy variable mainly west-north west flow rainfall starts dry but late overnight rain moving through temps cold and frost starts to become noticeable but once the rain gets here temps will increase -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- saturday a cold sourced south west wind veering north west later rainfall looks dry am patchy drizzle and cloud moving in pm temps a cold and raw day temps 6-8 degrees and maybe lower to the north and east of our region -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- saturday night a cold north west wind rain some light showers around temps cold but frost unlikely due to cloud and wind i would not rule out the odd wintry shower overnight ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sunday quite a breezy north west wind and cold rainfall starts dry but expect showers in the afternoon temps around 6-7 degrees there is a chance we may see some wintry showers pm if the showers are heavy enough call at present is rain but that may change on tomorrows update so overall cold and will feel colder in the wind back later with the rest

Nice to see you around this morning CharltonKerry, guessed you were probably busy designing! Good result for your lot the other night, need to win the rest of those games in hand now. Hope you enjoy your day

I think Barry's post contained a fair amount of Sarcasm

This thread is not for publicly stating members that you may or may not be adding to the ignore list, so those doing that sort of thing need to stop.

12C

My memory of the last 4 months is biblical amounts of rain, severe gale / storm force / hurricane force winds..... hardly any frost and no snow worthy of mention apart from the scottish mountains. The next 7-10 days..perhaps longer indicate a higher chance of a snow flake and frost than we have had for the last 16 weeks...weather forecast just said turning much colder during the next few days. :-)

Well a week's a long time in forecasting. The dominating AZ high has now disappeared next week. After a brief look the weather over the weekend which is under the influence of the low to the north of the UK, after the cold front moves through today, lying Stornoway to western Ireland at oo, quite convective with frequent wintry showers with snow further north and on the hills in the strong W-NW winds. A weak transient ridge on Monday before a slack period midweek, with the ridge to the west of the UK, but the GDPS and GFS diverge here so best left but just to say quite cool.

Cheers pm..I'm glad you agree. Its all relative of course as we are heading towards april but wintry showers and frosty nights is good enough for me..with the increasing convection we should see some beefy wintry showers with thunder developing well inland.

All our love and best wishes to you and your Dad. Some people are just so awesomely brave, keep positive for his sake... he doesn't need to laugh, just to know you're there is enough. And we'll be here thinking of you and your family.

The 8-14 day outlook from NOAA is inconsistent with the majority of tonight's model outputs, as it has low heights (suggesting lower-than-average pressure) to the north and north-west of the British Isles. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Another good source for guidance when the operational outputs over-react to a signal is the ECMWF ensemble mean, but that, too, is now suggesting a build of high pressure to the north-east and a generally easterly or south-easterly flow, so the NOAA outlook currently looks out on its own. I won't be surprised if NOIAA's update tomorrow moves in the direction of tonight's operational outputs and has anomalous heights over Scandinavia. The ECMWF only drags up warmth from the SE at the very end of its operational run- an easterly with 850hPa temperatures just below 0C tends to translate to cool dry cloudy weather near North Sea coasts at this time of year but if we get a sufficiently slack easterly flow then central and western areas may end up sunny with warm days and chilly nights and the same can also be true in East Anglia and the south-east if we get a south-easterly thanks to the short track over the North Sea.

Evening all Some very interesting output this evening and plenty to consider going forward. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032012/gfs-0-132.png?12 GFS 12Z operational offers an unpleasant-looking scenario for the south and east with rain and cold winds but it doesn't last as HP forces its way in from the east: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032012/gfs-0-174.png?12 Moving into FI, pressure remains high to the north and east suggesting no Atlantic break-through for a while. ECM is quite different sending HP from the Azores up and over the British Isles to the north and thence to Scandinavia: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032012/ECM1-144.GIF?20-0 GEM keeps a more mobile and Atlantic-driven scenario with the Scandinavian HP offering only a brief interlude. I'd also caution against getting excited over 850 values in these set ups. I suspect that we will either see a cloudy and cool HP or, if we can get some drier air, some quite cold nights.

shhhhhhh, no one will notice

hi jax i think your in trouble now

Looks like a weak easterly flow will develop throughout next week. Initially it could be cold midweek as a relatively cold pool of air moves over the UK. But behind that the air looks warmer so temperatures would recover away from eastern coasts. Its just a question of whether or not the Atlantic would be encroaching by then.

The beast from the east cometh. Not a patch on last year's though... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-3-26-12-1.png

UKMO continues to show pressure building by mid next week though with we won't see the sort of temperatures we had last week as cooler air will be over the UK A similar picture from GFS

ukmo at 144 the perfect winter set up overnight though might give a surprise or 2 thats assuming these are right anway back later with the updates hope your all good john

Min today of 6.7C while maxima are likely to be around 12C, so 7.8C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 7.8C to the 21st (6.5) 7.7C to the 22nd (5.6) 7.5C to the 23rd (5.1) 7.4C to the 24th (4.5) 7.4C to the 25th (6.0) 7.3C to the 26th (5.5) 7.2C to the 27th (5.0)

I've noticed that quite often when we put our clocks forward to British 'Summer' time the weather invariably gets colder

Morning all (I think I've just about made it in time !) Massive virtual hugs to Alix (and others who are going through tough times), I think quite a few of us can empathise with what your going through at the moment with your Father, my Mom had a massive stroke 6 years ago and was left paralysed and tube fed for the two weeks she survived afterwards, it's incredibly difficult seeing someone who has always been there and looked after you laying in a hospital bed helpless and hopeless but try to cherish the time you have left and keep talking to him about happy times, I found that really helped me too as memories came back of silly things from childhood that were almost forgotten and although she couldn't communicate very well she understood what was being said - stay strong ! As for the weather, well I've been a bit busy but I managed to look out the window and it's cloudy and windy - I'm venturing out now to the bank so I'll see if I can get there and back in one piece, the way things have gone this week I'll be lucky but hopefully I'll be back later

Alix my thoughts are with you this morning. As hard as it is keep smiling and keep fighting, unfortunately my dad passed away 2 years ago now with dementia. No-one prepares you on how to deal with this difficult situation, all i can say is that my prayers and hopes that he is as comfortable as he can be, with his loved ones around him being there with him, making him smile and even if he isnt smiling he will know that you are there. Take strength from memories that you have of him and the wonderful times that you had with him. Weather today is cold and breezy, am not liking the thought of a temp plunge as i am about to take the little one to Peppa pig next week end no snow please.

Temperatures will drop like a stone when the wintry showers blow through but then recover when the sunshine returns...I love spring..

Morning all. Clear skies here at the moment and birds are finishing their dawn chorus. Best wishes to Alixzandra today, during an undoubtedly very tough time.

My thoughts are with you and your loved ones, Alix, at this most sad and difficult time.

Yes Frosty, even the experts are calling it a wintry spell, why folk have to keep playing it down is beyond me... it is what it is a short Wintry spell. And the charts also paint a period of cool and unsettled weather well into the start of April.

How can we enjoy a wintry spell in late March, especially after a winterless winter!! All we want now is a nice spring, a summerey summer (heat, fine barbie days and storms) and a winterey winter 2014-15!!

Giant virtual hug A. Stay strong for him, and then come and scream in here when you need to.

It's funny isn't it how a Dad's job is to make his children laugh, to be daft, to be strong, to make out like everything will forever be ok, yet as time refuses to stand still the balance shifts so that the children become more and more like the Dad, looking for the lightness and the light but increasingly aware of the gathering dark. My huge sympathies to you A. My dad, nearly 80, is still going very strong but he's on his own now and misses his wife so much, and we are doing for him now what he did for us then and what others will, hopefully, do for us one day. AS

talking to yourself is the first sign of madness gavin

I've been thoroughly enjoying the spring like weather. It marks the beginning of my camping season where I can star gaze and take some nice star trail photos in comfortable temperatures. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge cold/snow fan and a snowboarder but I'm in my warm/sunny mode now. Tomatoes, chillies & peppers amongst others are planted and some have germinated well in the poly tunnel. I really am hoping for a good spring/summer. Here's what I got a few days ago on my first camp of the season thanks to the nice weather. Taken from the summit of Mynydd Mawr looking over Nantlle ridge. https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19661-/

Yes Anyweather, also parts across the spine of the UK could see more Snow than they have had all winter.. With even a pinch from the East on the 24th ​