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Mr Chilly got the job! Woohoo Thank you for all the good luck wishes. Edit: It's cloudy.

Morning all. Hope we are all well. I was hoping for glorious blue sky this morning as it is my birthday, but it is dry and chilly but not too bad. This time last year it was snowing as we drove to Bournemouth. Funny what happens in a year. I am currently a recovering compulsive gambler... Not at home now but trying to rebuild my relationship with my wife. Thankfully my daughter is too young to understand what happened to her daddy. I am 220 days without a gamble so that is a good start in my battle. Hope you all have a good day and some sunshine would be nice. At least it ain't raining. Sorry if this is off topic about my current home scenario I just wanted to share it all with u

Morning all! Where's CK this morning? I feel quite bereft without his early morning ramblings. 6.8c here this morning, and dark and the heating hasn't come on this morning. Not sure if that's because it's not cold enough or it's broke. My hubby has a job interview today, so I have everything crossed for him. He needs a change of employer because his current ones are absolute sh*ts who refused to give him time off for our daughter's op. He won't forgive them for that. As for me, I'm going to buy a tumble dryer at last...it's the little things. Have a good day everyone!

Hi The reason I cite less amplification is because of the strength of the easterly flow across the sub tropics that is underpinning the position of the mid latitude/Azores ridges just above it. This is one factor that needs to weaken to allow greater amplification in the atlantic. Next up, this alignment of ridging across the Northern Hemisphere mid latitudes (including us obviously) is helping to force extra westerly momentum to the polar flow (at the same time as easterly flow is compensatingly stronger across the sub tropics) and the result of that is to see vortex energy transported from west to east, in that westerly flow, across the pole (as monitored in previous posts over the last week or so). The bulk of the vorticity attempted to be transferred towards northern Scandinavia and Siberia - but the models are proving too fast in trying to do this. This (slow) process will also serve to increase the strength of jet stream, and associated atlantic westerly flow,.as we go into next week. Therefore amplification looks to be further inhibited by this compensating increase in westerly flow above the ridge which will keep its shape flattened and any definitively colder incursion kept to the north as a result. Frictional torques (which are essentially the creation of extra wind flow due to longitudinal differences of pressure across the hemisphere) decreased markedly a week or so back and this scenario is ideal for blocking patterns - it is this that enhanced the sub tropical ridges in the first place and pushed them northwards to our mid latitude as the jet stream headed northwards in tandem, so that a broad band of High pressure has extended from the Azores through the UK and into Europe. Hence the region was enjoying the fine weekend just past, and the rest of the week is set very fine and fair when current cloud conditions clear away . The wavelength (meaning in simple terms the durability) of this enhanced frictional torque that is underpinning the current fine conditions is around 3 to 4 weeks. On the basis that the wavelength started at the end of February, then we should expect it to last till about the last week/ten days or so of this month. The continuing easterly flow in the sub tropics will however serve to weaken the Azores High (as the charts below illustrate) and this means that the jet stream can come a little further south and make the weather, eventually rather cooler and more changeable for our region. However, on the other hand, until the strength of the easterly flow under the Azores ridge is weakened and the westerly energy transport process above the ridge continues, it will be difficult to achieve sustained amplification of the jet stream and dig the polar front too far south. On this basis too, any wintry potential indicated in the modelling remains, for now, likely to be confined further north. The caveats to all this are obviously any energy changes over the sub tropics, the modelling of the polar vortex in the longer term finally getting into Northern Scandinavia, and also we need to look at the likely retrogression of the Pacific pattern upstream which in turn is a mechanism, as modelled, to pull the Azores ridge away (and also another factor to weaken it) from close to the SW of the UK and Ireland here: To here: (I think the ensemble mean is a better overall representation of the trend than the ECM operational this morning) The lack of atlantic amplification cited as likely in this post, is borne out well in the modelling here, and we can see the jet stream, as described above, returning further south and pressure falling over us, also as previously suggested. We should be wary of other modelling (such as the GFS yesterday evening) suggesting much greater amplification in the further time period. Also best to note that the balance of energy transport from west to east across the pole in the modelling has been maybe too progressive, for the rather technical reasons described above, and for this reason too, it is no surprise to see the flatter pattern modelled in the 10 day period this morning. I think *some* amplification will eventually become evident, but until the modelling gets to grips with the energy budget from the tropics to the pole, then this signal will be unclear and likely to lead to the models being over progressive in this respect. In the meantime, however, we have at least another week of fine weather to come - so lots to enjoy and hopefully plenty more high quality regional piccies to come !

Here we see the prospect of lovely dry, mild, Spring like weather, ideal for wildlife including nesting birds and emerging butterflies, perfect for crops to establish and gardens to begin flowering. Why would we want anything else at this time of year, regardless of how disappointing the Winter has been..... Give me warm Spring sunshine - I don't want snow in March AGAIN to delay the decent weather from arriving. SF

Evening each. It's been a lovely day here after a slightly gloomy start. Bit chilly now, mind. Re' above posts. I hope people are not going to have to feel as though they are walking on egg shells when posting. There seems to be an awful lot of tension about on what used to be a very friendly, happy-go-lucky forum and which was a joy to visit. People leaving, getting angry and stressed, and some nasty, sarcastic remarks have been posted. This is a weather forum, and I, and I'm sure many others, would like to see it return to how it was when I first joined nearly two years ago. Otherwise, I fear more people will leave and that would not be nice.

Fab news Chilly Milly, so pleased for you after reading how awful his current employers are refusing him time off work for your daughters operation - terrible and makes me realise how lucky I am to work with an understanding boss. It's been cloudy here all day so far, but the cloud does look to be thinning. Fingers crossed we get some sun this afternoon! Also, happy birthday Jimmy, and thank you for sharing what you did this morning about your gambling habit. Keep up the good work in steering clear and I hope you manage to continue to sort things out with your wife. Yay, the sun has just come out!

Afternoon all Just reading the News on BBC about the death of Bob Crow and this struck me: "Apart from his obsession with Millwall - he had been watching the team since his father took him to the ground as a youngster - Mr Crow had a surprising interest outside his job. "I'm really interested in the weather. I spend ages looking at weather maps and graphs. I have a barometer in the house and if I could have been anything else other than a union official I would have been a footballer - or a weatherman.""

Evening all. Appropro nothing in particular other than trying to put things in perspective, and redress the balance a touch, I don't suppose for one minute I'm the only one here who would jump at the chance of being employed again. Health issues have dictated otherwise though. Life goes on. The latest forecasts suggest the cloud that has blighted much of the region for the last 2 days may be in retreat as the week progresses. I would certainly welcome that. Blue skies and sunshine certainly lift my spirits. NB: CK, off topic I know but what are your thoughts on the sacking of Chris Powell ??

Like it Surrey, think I come and work for you. Working for yourselves can be extremely rewarding but I thought I would just give you an idea what I done today. For your info sometimes running your own company ain't fun, it's take all your time, energy and brain power, as chilly milly mentioned I didn't do my normal morning ramble (bet that pleased a lot of people :-)), why, I was up at 5:30, working at 5:40 just got in constant meetings, about purchasing, project costings, end of the year accounts, personnel finances, future tax planning, including how to pay more (I know its the wrong way round, but occassionally you need to think outside the box, for future gain), write various contractual letters including talking to our company solicitors at a cost of only £285 per hour. Then I got to start my real job of designing, oh yes, also answer phone and make tea / coffee when my staff are to busy. But today was a bad un, and as I say, when its good its good, another little hint, is at the end of every month you need enough money in the bank once you paid the suppliers, VAT and tax man to pay your staff (that's pressure). Oh yea I will still be working at 9 tonight and will do in excess of 100 hours this week, but I love it, I hope you have the opportunity, if you do, grab it with both hands, but most importantly do something you love, then it will be worthwhile. I can't tell you what the weather was like today, I haven't got a clue, I didn't get out not even for a sandwich and the drive home past in a flash, as I was on hands free, trying to catch up on the missed calls. Brilliant news chilly milly re your husband, hope he tells his present employer to poke his job where the sun don't shine, its companies like that, that make it bad for the rest of us, our accounts ladies husband has just had a major operation and even our suppliers and customers are bending over backwards to help her, my staff have been truly magnificent doing everything possible too take the pressure of her. He's now making a good recovery so I like to think that the flexibility that we have given her has helped.

The same applies with a warm snap Gav...

The ECM mean is very well aspected this evening. Further to updates last week regarding the movement of vortex energy from west to east and end up residing north of Scandinavia and into Siberia - then updated modelling concurs. Expect further modelling in days to come to fully advertise this evolution. . Amplification in the atlantic will be hard to achieve due to stubborness of the Azores High to break down as easterly trade winds underpin sub tropical ridges, and at the same time momentum transport from the tropics completes its spell of scrubbing westerly inertia only very slowly from mid latitudes as it heads polewards What does this mean? Simply that we will be slow to see the jet stream return south due to energy inertia north of the mid latitude ridges, and the colder and more changeable weather further north will only make slow inroads during next week. Plenty of fine weather to come in this region. Tams

Kerry, I certainly didn't read your, or anyone elses post as insensitive, not at all. I was just expressing the other side of the coin from a different angle. I'm sorry I was the bearer of bad news regarding Chris Powell, I just assumed you already knew. Back to the weather........more sunshine on the way later this week hopefully.

Afternoon all, Many happy returns and best wishes to all those with birthday’s, job interviews or anyone who just needs a bit of good luck today I was hoping the sun would break through by lunchtime here but it’s still very overcast in MK – we seem to be stuck under this mass of stubborn low cloud…… This is a surface pressure chart for tomorrow showing the high pressure across the UK…… ...but having high pressure (anticyclone) does not always mean warm and sunny, troublesome cloud is the bane of forecasting in a high as explained here in Jo Farrow’s latest blog…… http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5728;sess= For anyone interested in learning how to read a surface pressure chart this Met Office handy guide might help….. http://bit.ly/1h9eRyT

Just for once in the last 4 utterly miserable despairing months for coldies, I would love to see a chart like this from the Gfs 00z op run verify even though it's only shortlived, it's sharp. However, if the anticyclone does become centred further to the west / south west of the uk, it would open the door to reloads of cold air from polar regions.

Bluebreezer54, I know your post wasn't aimed particularly about my post but, I'm very sorry if my post was a bit insensitive it wasn't meant to be, I was aware of your predictiment and I realise the frustration that you and people in a similar position to you must suffer every day. I don't really know what to say, other than I wish you luck and better health in the future, I'm certain you are not looking for my sympathy, but I offer it anyway. Re Chris Powell, until I read your post I hadn't heard the news, (told you I been busy) it a very difficult situation as he's my hero, he's a gentleman, and a gentle, caring human being, he's an exact opposite of any footballer I ever had the unfortunate pleasure of meeting, he has done so much for fans that has never been published, the time he, his wife and kids have spent so much time helping terminal ill kids etc.. But the pressure has been building over the year, this season I think he's only won 6 games, he's to nice a man to be put under that much pressure, but as I say I haven't had time to read anything about it, and as yet don't know the reason for his sacking, I assume the final nail in his coffin was Sunday, and all I can say if we played extremely badly. Ps I still don't what's the weather been like today.

A lot of hardcore coldies have already abandoned ship but I'm not ready to leap overboard just yet. I feel there is still a chance of at least one potent cold snap before the ship sinks beneath the waves and at that point I will happily go with the flow until october..I see potential for cold in the latest models. :-)

Hi Jim, Im glad to hear things are getting back on track for you. It cant be easy going through something like that, keep on punching mate, Happy birthday, I hope you have a good one

March 20th would just scrape astronomical winter.

update for now tomorrow a very weak easterly flow rainfall none temps 14-15 degrees but may be a shade lower to the north east east if cloud does not clear looks cloudy and misty early, clearing then clouding over late pm -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night a very weak east flow rain none temps looks around 6 degrees mist and fog looks likely ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- thursday a very weak flow likely north east rainfall none temps we should all see mainly sunny skys after any morning mist burns away around 14-16 degrees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- thursday night a weak north easterly watch for fog tonight rainfall none temps around 6-8 degrees ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ friday a slightly more breezy north west flow rainfall none temps i would not rule out a 16-18 degrees here sunny as well so overall pretty good back later

hi all hope your all well will update later tonight as a footie match on soon just leave you with this a slightly better agreement on the 15th cooling off 17th on how cool is up in the air as a BIG spread on the 19th showing looks pretty dry to the 19th still anyway be back later john

No I never said such a thing. I said If AGW science was and is a conspiratorial plot to prop up western economies, and scientific research is somehow being twisted to accomodate it, then the organic growth of environmental awareness in other fields ( everything as diverse from habitat protection, clean air and waterways, recycling materials, anti littering campaigns, pesticide use, etc ).. is an enormous productive and positive list of results that has come out of it. It has upskilled human beings understanding and respect for the health of the environment. I don't believe AGW is a world plot...but i certainly do appreciate that some entrepreneurs and organisations do take advantage by proclaiming certain things. Throughout human history though, this has always happened. I sometimes think though, that if AGW deniers are so passionate about transparency and corruption, surely there are a dozens of other issues out there, issues that actually cause real harm to humans, and their communities.

Good evening, Congratulations to Mr Chilly Been another tiresome day Zzz its a cool 8.0C with thick grey cloud. Darkness is slowly descending.

Great news Chilly! Shows how odd modern life is, I've been completely bogged down since about 1:30pm with a succession of meetings and paperwork and just now had a chance to breath so came on to the site to catch up and saw all these posts saying it's sunny. Only then did I turn round and look out of the window to seethat it is. Why on earth didn't I turn around and look out of the window before logging on here? Bizarre.... Hope you all have a good evening. I am hoping to be away before it gets dark having been in the office since 7:15 am, especially as I have 2 cans of Punk IPA in the fridge placed there in anticipation of this being a long and dreary day! AS

Yep same here Jax re the sun putting in a late appearance. Better late than never. Genuinely pleased to hear the good news job wise for CM's husband. An employer refusing time off for a childs operation is pretty lousy, he's better off out of that job. Result Mr CM .

Good aftenoon everyone. I would like to echo Ali's post on all counts. The sun did make a half hearted attempt at breaking through the cloud but gave up the ghost within minutes. It was 19.7c here on Sunday, 11.7c yesterday, and a miserable 9.7c so far today. I can't even cheer myself up in the usual way because the Bognor Regis webcam is showing pretty much the same down there. Have a good day wherever you are and whatever you are doing.

Can we keep this topic to actually discussing the model output please - chat about what weather we want to see (or not) needs to be elsewhere, if it has a model slant then a good place is the model banter thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

I'm waiting for the Ecm 00z ensemble mean to see how that is trending rather than paying much attention to the op..hoping for a cold snap beyond the rather cloudy benign anticyclonic interval...yep I'm a hopecaster and proud of it!

Plenty of time yet as the models get to grips with the change to cooler more unsettled weather for the last 1/4 of March, Nothing disappointing this morning, as timing being another week/10 days away, expect many more variations over the coming days. M.E.T are still very confident in there outlooks, will be interesting watching it unfold as usual.. But im not expecting anything other than a typical March affair.

Ditto. I hope to see the Sun, later this afternoon.

100 days of snow Paul Hudson of BBC Yorks has been counting "We made it! Day 100 of Daily Express 's 100 days of snow! THE worst prediction in forecasting history. Courtesy PWS & Exacta Weather. LOL" today

well hopefully they all take the same stance as me .... dont let the bastards get to you! now thats out the way.. wind dropped enough to make dog walks more pleasurable. but my luck is really poxed. not got two pennies to rub together until pay day and still managed to lose a tenner out my pocket while walking dog. :o what with bank been hacked and robbed over weekend, i feel like nothings going my way still, least she who must be disobeyed has gone up for an early night :lol: temps around 6.5 here and no breeze. sky cloudy but a lot clearer than earlier sorry...'ning all

Models continue to support a return to unsettled conditions from the NW as we move into next week as the current high retreats to the SW and we pull down a trough to our NE, so very slowly trending more unsettled and generally cooler for all especially the north. Still a week of dry weather is nothing to be sniffed at and just the tonic given the horrendous wet period we have been locked in since early December, but it will take more than a week of dry weather to dry things out.. we need a good few months of such conditions.. The high has arrived just at the right time for decent temperatures given the strength of the sun, a similiarly positioned high even a month ago would no doubt be delivering temps struggling into the low single digit figures and one between late Nov and late Jan no doubt sub freezing conditions to many. What a difference the sun can make by March. Indeed if this was May then temps in mid 20's would easily be achieved in sheltered western parts, with western coasts bathed in the best conditions many can hope to see in such locations. The current high is perfectly positioned for these parts - can't ask for a better placed high.. fingers crossed this isn't the only time we see such a high this side of September!

have a look at which model at the 10 day range, look at the 500mb pattern, seems most like the 3 anomaly charts I use. That will be the one most likely to verify as they have consistently gone for the change from upper ridge over uk area/mostly Europe with a flow at 500mb mainly s of west north of uk where main unsettled weather is. To the idea of a more trough type weather pattern with temporary ridges and brief Pm air into much of UK but chiefly NW with spells of rain again chiefly for NW but not exlusively for the 6-10 day period, say from about the weekend to see this change. No sign of any deep cold or any prolonged cold but less mild/warm than many southern areas are currently enjoying. Some rain but not to any great extent for the S/SW areas.

But it has been cold a lot of the time, just not snowy or frosty which is standard winter fare, in my part of the world anyway...it certainly hasn't been mild apart from this last week!

Evening all. Been a chilly and mostly overcast day here today. Great news about Mr Chilly Millie, and Jimmy keep at it mate. Your wife is far more important. Just chilling at the mo. 12k run done, homemade soup eaten, now just one cheeky bottle of becks to replenish the sugars I lost running tonight ;-) Night guys.

Lovely to come on here and share in "peoples" good news. Well done and good luck!! Cloudy and chlly until about 3ish and then the sun decided to shine.....!

Hopefully the cloud will become less of an issue over the next few days for those of us who have been unlucky enough to be plagued by this. Patchy cloud and some morning mist and fog patches in places may linger near the coasts but overall sunny spells should be more widespread and the temperatures will respond during the afternoons across many inland areas with highs widely in the mid to low teens…. Images are from NW’s NMM model showing the daily maximum temperatures.

It also interested me to note that Mr Crow unlike Scargill was not affiliated to any political party. as much as i disliked the man he fought for his beliefs and was prepared to stand up to the employers, despite how good they believe there wage to be he always championed the causes of the lesser man. Still grey clag over sutton no brightness to talk of

Fantastic post Tam Informative and educational as ever. Thank you for taking the time out to explain all.

Like 2012, it's mainly the maxima so far that are bumping up the CET so much. As of the 10th maxima are 11.2C, 2.8C above average, whereas minima is provisionally on 2.9C to the 11th, 1.2C above average. Even so, the minima up until now are lower than the preceding winter months: Dec (3.3C), Jan (3.0C) and Feb (3.4C).

The MET are very keen on a cooler unsettled end to March and have been for a good few days now, maybe they are hope-casting to...? I doubt it. The models we have access to are still playing/toying with the idea. It's all about timing and trends im afraid, not one run, And the over-ruling trend is that of cooler unsettled conditions to take over by last 1/4 of March. A typical March affair is what i expect.

Yes Frosty, At worst we could be looking at a few Northerly topplers maybe..

Mornin each. Double ditto:) Need a walk later to blow the old cobwebs off. Now...on top of all yesterday's horrors, Sky has gone down. Oh joy!Good luck, best wishes and Happy birthdays to the relevant parties today. Hope you all have a good day and happy outcomes.

Ext ecm now saying no to any cold spell developing, with everything being pushed further east - as we saw all winter. What is of interest, is how cold the eastern us/canada is forecast into the mid term, with colder air once again leaking out into the Atlantic - and we know what that can mean for the UK. overall, disappointing for coldies. Seemingly, the ens led us up the garden path, again!

ECM now has no cold snap, I did say not too get to excited as it's FI. The breakdown of the high pressure is being delayed more and more.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em0mJumrlUI gone now nite all

Just found the REAL 'pub run' Care to explain this one JP?

drop from the 17th still there gfs has so far done well with that as picked up 6 days ago question is how cool-cold will it get? i am sitting on the fence with this at present that reminds me i have to fix my fence as well i would have more confidence if these ensembles had better agreement on the 15th thats why i am sticking short term for now (fax charts) anyway off now as spending another day on the tiles a night on the tiles would be better though goodnight all talk tomorrow john

Start of FI shows a countrywide snow event with widespread -10c uppers! One thing for sure, is that if it does verify, it would make this winter an absolute laughing stock!