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Showing most liked content on 09/03/14 in all areas

  1. 12 likes
    A solid week of dry weather for many away from the far NW, and very pleasant with abundant sunshine but also cold nights - shame we couldn't have seen such a spell at some stage during the winter. All models are in agreement of a change come the 17th thanks to the Polar Vortex at long long last lifting out of Canada on its journey to North of Russia, this results in a deep trough forming over Greenland with a direct collision for Scandinavia forcing heights away to our south west and thus exposed to a much cooler unsettled attack from a NW quadrant. Indeed GFS has been very consistent with such a scenario developing over recent days, and ECM is showing a very strong plunge of arctic air by the 19th. Northerlies are more likely to develop between mid March and mid May than at any other time in the year - if this was early winter I wouldn't be so confident in such a pattern change, but I am very confident that a change will occur to much cooler unsettled weather from a northerly quadrant and just like the immediate high pressure outlook, we haven't seen an airstream from between NW-East for months now.. Longer term - increasing signals of a pronounced pattern change from what we have endured in the main since October all thanks to the PV disappearing from Canada, with eyes peeled on development to our NW, N, NE and East as opposed to being transfixed on developments to our west and southwest.
  2. 11 likes
    Hope you've all had a good weekend and managed to relax and enjoy a bit of sunshine .. ...a leisurely walk.... ...maybe a swim .... ....seen the spring flowers.... ....or something that made you smile .... ...or even jump for joy !!! ... ... It's been wonderful here in the Cotswolds :-)
  3. 9 likes
    Beautiful day, as confirmed by so many others, 19oC at home and too nice to be indoors. Decided on a visit to Cliveden, which I love, although Evil SatNav Man was determined to get me there via single track unmade lanes. Made it in the end and it was, as usual, worth the drive. Excuse quality of photos please; when I got my camera out I found the batteries were flat. So this selection was taken with my phone.
  4. 8 likes
    ext ecm still wanting to bring much cooler weather to the UK, with the ens showing below average conditions into days 10-15. Looking at the Op tonight, it would seem this trend is gathering momentum. Yes, higher pressure hanging around for a bit longer, the ens were seemingly too eager to have heights shunted S, and the pressure is now shown to stay high until next week. The week coming will be lovely. But it does look like a week... before I have to get my jacket ready! Winter may have one last bite. GEFS in agreement
  5. 8 likes
    Absolutely!... The signs have been there for a while now, come on the weather gods give us a little something (cold & snow) that we've been longing for all winter
  6. 7 likes
    Its not a matter of "IF" but "WHEN" the current extremely mild/warm spell comes to an end. After all ,I feel myself that we have had an extended Autumn and today we have skipped Winter and Spring and gone into early Summer So the change modelled by ecm and gfs early next week looks fairly likely, but of course as always details will change , March is a very volatile month so expect the unexpected. we have had a remarkable run of mild weather and mother nature will always right itself, so don't discount any Wintry weather even for the south this month, Ecm and Gfs show "Potential" cold for next week, will this be a very late Wintry spell......We shall see
  7. 7 likes
    Morning all! Dry, sunny and 10.5c here already. What a lovely read back this morning. I love hearing all the nostalgic posts especially when they are written as eloquently as they are here. I can almost smell the grass and I'm imagining myself in the pavillion making cucumber sandwiches. It has brought back a rush of memories for myself, but I can't wax as lyrical as you guys so I shall just enjoy them in my head. Today I plan some gardening, because of the glorious weather and also some baking because my youngest asked to do that today. Otherwise nothing much planned. Happy birthday today to Planet Thanet. Have a good one. And everyone else, have a great day.
  8. 6 likes
    Looking good. Let's hope this verifies.
  9. 6 likes
    What a beautiful Spring day. Hope you're all enjoying it whatever you're doing. The marina here looks like a millionaires playground with all the boats moored there. Like an East Anglian Monaco.
  10. 6 likes
    True, but the ensembles also show quite some disagreement on just how much of the UK will see a cold plunge, if at all. At the moment, I agree with the fact a cooler NW'erly flow looks increasingly likely from mid-month, however there are a few options that I am seeing looking at today's GFS ensemble charts: Cold weather to our East and kept away into Europe courtesy of too much Azores high influence, staying milder by day, colder at night with settled weather over most of the UK - similar to what we might see this week, but a tad cooler. Glancing cold snap over the UK briefly, before getting pushed away by the Azores high leaving us in a bit of a N/S split (cooler and wetter N, drier and milder S). The further NE you are, the more likely of some wintry showers in the cold snap. Cool trough influence returning - probably cool and wet further South, perhaps some wintry stuff over hills and mountains the further North you are. Cold plunge from the North with wintry showers for many with a higher likelihood of snow the further North you are. This is due to a more mid-atlantic positioning of the High that gradually pushes North towards Greenland. The key seems to be what happens to the High pressure around the t+200 mark onwards - most options keep it more flat and pushing towards the UK, not allowing much cold to reach us. However there are some that do have a mid-Atlantic ridge which allows more substantial cold weather to push from the North. So if the High pressure stays West enough, we could see some winter weather just as Spring started to get under-way...how convenient! Still...a while off yet with too much uncertainty on the most likely outcome. Time to enjoy the Sun before I return to bathing under fluorescent light in the office for another week!
  11. 5 likes
    Evening all A grey start to the day soon gave way to charcoal blue smudges and then, as the under 11s football team battled to a fine draw against the league leaders, to proper early spring sunshine. The football ground is shared with the cricket club and on arriving this morning there was a small tractor pulling a heavy roller across the pitch and the smell was in the air of cut grass and freshly painted sightscreens. I have never had such a sense of new dawning spring than I had today. Before the match and after I have been sorting out the garden furniture, 8 hardwood chairs and a large-ish table, all left out, and all by now covered in mildew as a result of a mild and ludicrously wet season. Cleaning each overly complicated chair took an age but it felt like I was scrubbing away the dank gloom, the winter, the miserable dark green bloom that had lived and crept across everything as the rain refused to let up. Once each chair was free of its green coat I left them in the surprisingly warm sun and went out with youngest plus dog for a good 2 hour walk through the Surrey hills. Got back to find the chairs bleached almost white and warm to the touch, ready to be oiled with an old cloth that smelt of cricket bats, sheds and the past. Finished up as it was almost dark, youngest still playing on the birthday present not until today put up Crazy Catch, me in a T-Shirt, the faintest hint of the stars just coming out to join the half-moon that had been showing some of its face for an hour beforehand. Fish and chips for our now 17 year old's 17th birthday today - picked him up from the station after he'd been out and saw him give a hug and a kiss to his girlfriend as they said goodbye - days of wonder and hope. Looks like another lovely day could be on the cards tomorrow, hope you all enjoy it AS
  12. 4 likes
    Well, could this be the cue for a new avatar? ... There you are in a cockpit of an old fashioned plane with a wind-up propeller thingy....instead of sitting at a table with a ciggy in one hand, a mountain behind you, and minus the 'go nationwide' sunglasses Pass on my regards to Sparrow's Den, and 'that bench' where the funny man with the soggy trousers and shoes sat in the midst of the flood the other week, and also in that respect I guess one can soon wave "bye bye" to the water board service men in their little yellow hard hats tending to the fat water pipes that have straddled the pavements decorating the junction just by the A232 roundabout, close to Coney Hall - which is where I start to wend my way back towards the A21
  13. 4 likes
    That's an improvement from the GFS if you want the dry, mild conditions to continue. The cooler weather is being pushed back just like the Welsh scrum this afternoon!
  14. 4 likes
    UKMO has lots of mild but unfortunately cloudy air piling over the top of the high pressure at 144h. Hard to see where it would turn colder from there. Plenty of dry weather to come for the next 7 days with temperatures fluctuating between average and above average/rather warm.
  15. 4 likes
    Amen to that Tamara Just got back from a lovely day out on the Marlborough Downs (extreme west of this region, I guess!) with the good lady and the kids, and was a stunning afternoon in the Sun with temps approaching 20C and I do declare with a hint of sunburn!....not too shabby for the first half of March in anyone's books!
  16. 4 likes
    My 83 year old Dad was asked to play a game of cricket by the warden of our church. He spent all afternoon searching the loft for his bat, pads and cricket sweater and eventually found them in a tin trunk. Came the big day and he was bowled out first over My mother observed this with a steely eye as he'd lost his temper several times when she couldn't remember where they might be.
  17. 4 likes
    Slightly breezy out tonight! Small signs of the GFS wanting to send heights towards Greenland. A massive GH has to come at some point, we've not seen one for a while now...
  18. 3 likes
    Evening all What a fantastic day it has been, still 15.3oC out there now (18 if you believe the computer), spent the afternoon out in the sun and what a pleasant day it has been , shame it had to end but sadly washing and other jobs still needed to be done here to return I had to, just hope it continues this way weather wise. don't like your forecast at all JP , someone has put a red line thought it already though :lol:
  19. 3 likes
    have a good week John and I don't want any snow reports due to your height whilst on the roof I have a feeling that's the zoo we visited on our first wedding anniversary, see I know how to have a good time
  20. 3 likes
  21. 3 likes
    AS, my true weakness the smell of newly mown grass and the sound of leather on willow, how I long for those long gone days, of gentle breezes and mellow whispers of the bar man pulling that first pint of golden nectar. Boy do I miss it, how I long for one last innings, the memories of those dashing square cuts and blazing straight drives, or how about from the bowlers point of view, the thud of leather on the unprotected skin or the satisfying thud of leather on those sweaty smelly pink boxes, the tear of joy from the slips when the batsman, shakes his leg and little pieces of plastic sprinkle onto the ground, the brief discussion with the umpire on wether its cricket for the batsman to be run out because he rolled out his crease, or the call for the batsman wife to bring out the trezzers to remove the splinters from his... Well think you can finish that part of a true story and painful story, the only good thing, I was that bowler, the batsman ended up in hospital with a lot of stitches, but we assumed he was trying to brag. What a great shame, that your body gives out before your brain, I'm still convinced I could get that elusive ton, or the that 6 wicket haul, how many times did I takes 5 wickets never once 6, it ain't fair, nor was getting out in the 90's and the 6 times I was out on 49, he goes of into the sunset mumbling about lose youth and they don't build girls like they used to. Is it right and sensible that a old codger like me, should be laying awake all excited about a football match being played tomorrow, for gawd sake I got to be up at half five, and I'm too excited to sleep, have a nice night, what's left of it, and have a great day tomorrow. Time for sleep, as I think I have lost it. Weather was beautiful today.
  22. 3 likes
    I agree with summer sun (Gavin)..we have waited nearly 4 months for a fine spell so we should darn well enjoy it, nice to see high pressure gain the upper hand at long last and a good week of drying out from the floods, hopefully the flooded areas are starting to improve significantly now.
  23. 2 likes
    fax update thursday again the main thing dry friday a little note on that cold front on the way south that may be wet long way out for now so not worried for the moment as that stands dry for most of the day risk of showers early pm onwards north east flow so less cloud but would be a shade cooler i think some model swings likely early next week coming up be back soon with the london ecm ensembles
  24. 2 likes
    Countryfile weather for the week ahead with Nick Miller Dry Variable cloud Frosty Nights https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJPJvn-mAJg&feature=youtu.be
  25. 2 likes
  26. 2 likes
    Wow ...... what a wonderful day, this is more like it. Not sure if it is an official recording but RAF Northolt has reached 20oC today. More of the same please, bring on the clock change as well I have to wonder as well, those few that stuck their necks out several weeks, even months ago and said winter was over and a non-event; would they be entitled to an apology from the snow lovers whom shot them down?
  27. 2 likes
    Looks like FI starts around the 15th/16th March with uppers ranging from around +10 to -10 next weekend. Also a few Ens members wanting to bring uppers close to -10 as we head further into March. The 6Z control run a real eye opener in FI... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0 A wintry blast later this month certainly can't be wholly ruled out at this stage. Maybe a case of enjoy the pleasant warm settled weather while it lasts??
  28. 2 likes
    Still do not understand what is wrong with GMT, arguments to alter time do not make more light after all, that is always going to remain the same, and your life choice of awake hours will determine how much of that you see.
  29. 2 likes
    Shows how ridiculous it is to take one chart in ten days time and make definitive statements. And then update it every six hours.
  30. 2 likes
    The models haven't pushed anything back - there was never a set date for a breakdown to be pushed back anyway. They are slowly firming up on a breakdown soon after mid month with cooler Northerly interludes. What data are you looking at that suggests otherwise? Here are the latest 12z ensembles out after I made my comment - how do they show anything but breakdown after mid month? Look how pressure falls from the 16th. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=235&y=42 (NW England) Nothing is certain and certainly not the weather but firstly I said pretty much set in stone and secondly I didn't give dates for the breakdown in that comment (I never have) nor did I even comment on a breakdown per se - I said that it was pretty much set in stone the second half of March would be cooler than the first. The reason you think I keep saying this is because I do. That is what the models show, never mind I predicted this type of pattern a long way back before it was in the output with the Azores high being displaced West. Not sure exactly what it is you disagree with - Are you predicting it will be warm and settled after mid month? Or are just saying there is no conclusive or even strong evidence in the output for a cooler regime after mid month?
  31. 1 like
    A new tropical cyclone has developed in the southern Pacific basin, to the west of Fiji. The cyclone is currently pretty well organized, with a healthy amount of convection, along with some banding features apparent to the north. THe current intensity estimate is 35 kt (from JTWC). Unlike Hadi and Gillian, 18P doesn't appear to be struggling with high wind shear. Still, there seems to be some easterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Below is a visible loop of 18P, showing the well-organized structure: The cyclone is forecast to move initially eastward, before recurving to the south (toward New Zeeland), and strenghten up to 70 kt (as of the JTWC), before undergoing extratropical transition as the cyclone encounters cooler water. The forecast track from the JTWC can be seen below: Of note is that the GFS is rather agressive on 18P, especially in its extratropical phase. It may impact New Zeeland as a potent extratropical storm. The GFS expects the cyclone to attain a minimum pressure around 970 hPa once it arrives near New Zeeland. Another important point is that this cyclone might increase westerly winds near the Equator, and have a possible positive effect on an El Nino developing in the summer. This is all very speculative, though. Sources: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18P/18P_floater.html http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14030912/7.html
  32. 1 like
    theres bragging, and then theres real bragging, but that is just plain super! as an ex raf employee i know how good that feels to sit there good on you! best experience i ever had.... (other then one thing ) was taking off the flight deck of ark royal at full pelt. ... so glad i missed breakfast
  33. 1 like
    Why would it add votes to Yes, this isn't Westminster trying to change the rules, its overseas Scots who would be starting any legal action. Given the rules have been known for quite some time it seems odd that they have waited for this long. I don't think much will come of this, although Sean Connery will be happy if this succeeds as he will be able to vote from his tax haven in the Bahamas! I think more of an issue would perhaps be with an EU referendum and overseas UK nationals because that would more likely hit legal problems.
  34. 1 like
    I think my local thermometer is out as its saying its 22c with a top temp of 24c lol
  35. 1 like
  36. 1 like
    Yup looks pretty settled this week with the ECMWF perhaps nudging the the colder air a tad further west by the weekend with a slight westerly drift of the high. And as Frosty pointed out unsettled in the N by the weekend.
  37. 1 like
    BOM updates keep sending it further west, lining up a bit more with Borroloola. GFS has it straight over Mornington Island.
  38. 1 like
    Sunnier than Johnny Trousers and his Sunny Jazz time band.
  39. 1 like
    Poleward ocean heat transports, sea ice processes and Arctic sea ice variability in NorESM1-M simulations http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JC009435/abstract?utm_content=buffercf345&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
  40. 1 like
    Better get thinking of that new name then, Beast. There must be some lovely memories of the place even then, surely? Even the worst places can have their beauty, its all in the eye of the beholder. I do believe one or two folk (boy racers?) may well have ruined a few of your better days from what I vaguely recall. Nonetheless enjoy the new town and please stay connected with us netweather dudes.
  41. 1 like
    I just changed it, ahead of the big game tomorrow!! So not going mad no!!Was amazing day today, uplifting having it sunny and dry!
  42. 1 like
    CK, I'm very glad I never had to face you, the old Litesome salmon pink box might not have given me enough confidence to get on the front foot! Good luck tomorrow, as I said a while back I have a very soft spot for your nomadic and wonderful club - you should never lose that excitement, you are fortunate enough to have the same passion about your work and allegedly being an old codger (even if you are, which I doubt) has nothing to do with it! Keep fighting the good fight.Just realised I need to mention the weather.Ha, done it!AS
  43. 1 like
    Can all you guys who keep telling me "the breakdown" is being pushed back" please explain to me precisely when the breakdown was originally scheduled, when it is now scheduled and what exactly constitutes a breakdown of the warm anticyclonic conditions forecast for next week? Without being facetious, I haven't seen any specific date ever given for a breakdown so I don't see how it can be said an event is being pushed back? On what data is all this based, is it reflected in the ensemble data? ECM Op as posted above may show a slow breakdown with high pressure hanging on in the South but the fact is it cools down from the 15th with unsettled slowly spreading from the North from around the 17th and it is just one run let alone the fact that pointing to one Op 10 day chart as evidence of anything is slightly dubious. Can we just agree next week looks lovely for now - at least until the ensembles and models point to anything other than pressure falling away from the North after mid month?
  44. 1 like
    Why is winter still in FI, probably staying there
  45. 1 like
    I wonder if the 2nd half is going to be colder than the first half?
  46. 1 like
    God woman I wis half packed to come up there!! The birdies doon here are wearing oilskins and crampons and hinging on sideways in the hedge
  47. 1 like
    It's time that those who support religions learn to accept that laws were there for everyone to adhere to? Why do so many legal requirements carry a religious opt-out?
  48. 1 like
    Hey guys. Got back from a freezing cold canada yesterday and looks like I brought the snow with me. Here's a couple pics from my trip Apologise for them being on their side. I can't figure out how to turn them when uploading from iPhone.
  49. 1 like
  50. 1 like
    Last Sunday was like a reverse oasis. A spring-like day in the middle of February. Nature is beginning to stir but the overriding impression after this winter was one of tranquility.
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