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Off topic post warning! Sorry just want to tell the world - just got the all OK for the 12 week scan. I'm gonna be a daddy

Hi everyone. I'm in Stanmore, Middx and have been since 27 January. My daughter has had 2 spinal operations at the RNOH here and both were successful, I'm pleased to report, but the recovery is a long and dusty road. I went out today for the first time in over a week and realised it's been raining. I haven't even had the news on, (full on Doctor who for 10 days so far) and I didn't realise how bad it is/was/will be. I hope everyone is safe and well. Funny how the first view of the weather, reminded me of this place.

For the final time, this thread is for discussing the models, not just cold, everything. If people want to focus on cold that's fine if it's model related, if people want to focus on the here and now that's fine as long as it's model related, and if people want to look at deep fi, that's fine too so long as it's model related. So hopefully you get the jist - model discussion is fine in this thread regardless of the slant, so please can we put an end to this apparent need to tell people what they should and shouldn't be posting about.

No enough now mr/mrs weather maker, although a little bit of me still wants that to happen, purely from an I love wild weather perspective.I just think enough is enough now, people are really suffering. But the weather will do, what the weather will do.Thanks you lot for your kind words, I've left the wife in the hospital, I'm home now playing the waiting game, hopefully tomorrow little Charlie George shall make an appearance!Stay safe everyone. Oh, and I had 14.7mm today, some crazy variations given the small region. Still was expecting more.I Can confirm Mr and Mrs Karlos are the proud owners of a new Baby boy, Charlie. At 4:39am.Over and out

Sorry mods.... But this thread is for discussing the models and the headline from the models is, as all winter severely Atlantic dominated....its a bit rich to push any discussion of that severity to another thread......particularly as this thread should really be called the hunt for cold thread.............this winter really has taken the biscuit.....despite the MODELS constantly showing severe events, they are largely brushed over in favor of a discussion about slim Fi chances of something colder......which is fine people love cold weather....but dont pretend its a model discussion thread...as I said hunt for cold thread would be more apt.

Lets recap all this in a orderly fashioned way. I will just give you my interpretation (which has not changed since my last posts) using the "list" I made. Anyone can use it and fill in his/hers own view. This year, do we have a significant stratospheric warming? Not really. Is the warming propagating downwards? No.Fixed above 20mb. Possible influence of the warming on the entire trop-strat layer? No. Geopotential height only. Do we have a technical SSW? No Do we have a polar high establishing over the pole in the stratosphere? No. Do we have a split vortex? Core only Does the Gph increase greatly in the split cores? Not really Where are the 2 cores situated? Canada and Siberia Is the split long lasting? Short lasting Does the vortex reform? Yes Which core takes the dominant role after the reformation? The one in the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector. Possible effects of the main core on the troposphere? Additional cyclonic energy in the N. Atlantic sector. Possible resulting cold spells? Under the W flank of the main core - N Canada. Annex? Yes - Graphics attached bellow. Call me a "git" if you wish, but as I said in my last posts, at the present moment the only thing this warming 30km-50km above seems to be doing, is eventually helping to send more energy into the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector via the split and reformation of the polar vortex. Now I don't know if you either don't realize it, or don't want to realize it. Kind regards.

Looking on the radar there seems to be worse to come quite soon... Oh, and just wanted to say (I've mentioned radar, so think I'll get away with it), what a lovely forum this is. People sharing all sorts of things - I must confess over the last few days I've been quite emotional (in a good way!) over some posts - there are clearly some wonderful people out there. I think Abruzzi Spur should write a novel about all of you - he certainly has a way with words!

I just don't buy it to be honest. The cold spell of early Feb has turned into a washout and the next week which was supposed to offer a cold and slack pattern now looks set to produce yet more rain and severe gales. Whilst we are seeing effects on the troposphere by this warming, the fact remains that we cannot shift the Canadian sector far enough away or destroy it full stop to really get any benefit with the upstream pattern remaining fairly flat and mobile resulting in more depressions heading straight for the UK. ECM ens still show an unsettled picture but with a weakening of the jet in week 2, but we had this last week....... The fact the blob over Canada still exists by this time is not encouraging to me at all. As an aside I must apologise for the rather grumpy posts recently, I have to admit that I despise Autumnal weather and frankly the winter output has infuriated me and frankly part of me just wants Spring to arrive and end this 6 month spell of Autumn we have received.

Previous post highlighted for continuity In terms of proper winter snow and cold weather opportunities this winter is now surely destined as close to a complete write-off. The evidence out there is all to compelling to see with a continuing failure of stratospheric activity to benefit our part of the NH in this respect, and in complete contrast. we see the continuing bitter conditions from Northern Canada dictating our appalling fortunes downstream. Game set and match to the deep upper atlantic trough for winter 13/14. There is little hope of any meaningful atlantic amplification occuring whilst the vortex occupies Canada in the way it continues to, and the signs are that the next upcoming actiivity on the vortex simply serves to benefit the Canadian sector once more, so one doesn't have to be a genius to work out what that means for us in the UK The pattern will stay flat in our sector with further low pressure systems tracking towards us much in the way they have since mid December. The 'best' that can be said is that the pattern *should* eventually become 'less extreme' as signals continue to indicate the Pacific pattern retrograding somewhat in the much longer term with the result that the extreme temperature gradients fuelling the jet stream will be mitigated, even though energy will still be available to keep the pattern too flat for amplification to bring cold incursions. However none of this is going to happen soon enough, and we stare bleakly out at another 7 to 10 days at least with no let up in this alarmingly stormy pattern - this really is not the outlook any of us (most especially in the south west) wants to hear Approaching Springtime seasonal wavelengths shortening, and accompanying seasonal final warming out of the vortex looks to me to be the only definitive way out of this destructive, and then afterwards plain unsettled and changeable, pattern. Moderation of these extremes should be the biggest priority to look out for anyway in these torrid circumstances - and besides, expectations of any late glimpse of official seasonal winter weather have all but gone. Certainly in my opinion anyway. A lot of uncertainty about this, but such moderation should come by the last third of the month, in the form perhaps of lows tracking further north and maybe pressure rising to our south. But there is no sign at all of any end to the westerlies in the greater sense for some to come yet. Edit: I was obviously speaking in terms of probabilities of any significantly cold weather. It seems clear to me that any variant options with a Canadian vortex in place, which might certainly be possible in some circumstances, are limited in the overall current NH circumstances, and those that have dictated the winter, and unlikely to come to much at all - especially when set against the overriding continuing significance of so much severe weather threat There remains a concerning amount of uncertainty wrt to wind strength and storm track for possible rapid cyclogenesis in the low next week circa 11th Feb. The London ECM ensembles illustrate this clearly enough http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-ff-london.gif Also, the Ensemble maps at day 5 show a few of the extreme solutions hinted at by last night's ECM 12z - although there is a wide variety of other more preferable solutions. Member 34 is surely the scariest...

Here are some pictures from this morning (or yesterday morning now) These were taken about an hour and a half after high tide, so earlier ones would have been more dramatic - from Polperro. At least these boats had a safe harbour!

When I was in Cornwall earlier during the weekend and earlier this week, I actually had one nice day of weather and one half day, before the storm set in late on Tuesday. I popped over the Devon border and went to Clovelly (which I'd only vaguely heard of beforehand) which is a really nice place. I took a few photos there, showing the blue sky, just before lunchtime - however cirrus was starting to appear in the west... There was also a pretty bold herring gull there, who let me get close to take a photograph (and this was in no way with a telephoto lens) Maybe he thought I would give him some chips? I then thought I could get a nice photo of him taking flight, so I set up the lens to give a very sharp depth of field, to make him look good, as he took off... Then the little blighter turned tail and launched off the wall, sea-side! I snapped as he started to move... Still at least part of the sea wall was in great focus!

Next Tuesday beginning to look intersting snow wise for many, will change to and fro from area to area, but currently dew points, 850-1000, wet bulb and 850 temps looking good for large areas:

Morning all..... ...big waves !

A few pics I took this week, Studland, Shell bay, Chain ferry to Sandbanks and Ballard down, Swanage. The tide had actually come all the way up ferry road, almost threatening a sewage works a few feet away. You can view all the others here: https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=4A3F01F5A34A06D2!463&authkey=!AMxVuAKR0rg-vw4&ithint=folder%2c.JPG And here's links to other recent trips during bad weather, just in case anybody missed them before. Kimmeridge: https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=4A3F01F5A34A06D2!403&authkey=!ALvadmUAV9FCMU4&ithint=folder%2c.JPG Wareham/Swanage: https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=4A3F01F5A34A06D2!360&authkey=!AOEi5cyjgTg1IEY&ithint=folder%2c.JPG

I agree with you Kate about this forum and those that post here. You're kind about me, but I couldn't remotely do justice to this eclectic, witty, thoughtful and considerate bunch and all of their life experiences. In fact this is the only place I have had the confidence to ever post any attempt at writing outside of the day job (which is not very creative) and that is a tribute to the members here.AS Now that is what I mean.

So he is not allowed to change his forecast? even the pros @ the meto change theirs on a week to week basis??

full up now tonight take a guess http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ winds may get gusty later but rainfall is concern please check the environment website if concerned re flooding temps not important ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow in the morning strong and gusty westerly winds will be replaced by less strong but cooler north westerlies expect the rain to clear just before lunch to the west of the region the rest around 2-3 pm temps around 8 degrees when raining dropping a tad to around 6 degrees during daylight hours dropping down fairly when night falls ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ tomorrow night winds veering back to a south westerly gaining strength to 50mph most areas 60 mph possible south coastal regions rainfall will be dry and cold up to around midnight then rain on the way and some heavy and persistant very heavy and will be worse due to the wind strength ukmo for 7am shows this so winds am still gusty but still 50-60 mph temps not important ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- saturday still a strong and gusty south west wind 50-60 mph most areas potential 70 mph south coastal winds to the far north of the region may be a shade lower but only a little rainfall looks likely heavy rain clears by lunch to return again a few hours later temps somewhere around 6-8 degrees but with the wind and rain will feel horrid jet ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ saturday night still a very strong but now westerly wind 50-60 mph rainfall the night starts dry but again more heavy and blustery rain moves in temps temps will be cold around 3-4 degrees in the heavier bursts keep your eye out for some wintry precipitation although the rain will be the main concern again ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sunday winds still gusty around 40 maybe the odd 50mph gust from a cold westerly rainfall looks dry first thing but expect some heavy blustery showers through the afternoon also will be likely to see hail sleet and even something wintery during the heavier bursts temps cold wind and temps around 5-6 degrees which will drop quick in any heavy showers so overall interesting conditions but not good re the flooding and wind risks be back later with the rest

Yes the weather looks very nasty over the next few days, with damage likely either from wind or rain. But keeping my eye on the 11th, as its constantly being shown as cold and possibly snowy for lower ground:

Channel 5 next Snow trapped...might make a change from the rain lol

I don't think it's been overplayed we've had an exceptional period of rainfall in the last couple of months .....the wettest winter for 248 years - 372.2mm for the southeast and central southern England region is the wettest any 2-month period since 1910 ! This is the lake at Caldecotte which is higher than I've ever seen it this afternoon - the ducks are swimming on what's normally footpath :-)

Saturday's low now SE of New Foundland having exited the east coast of Canada earlier, quite distinctive cloud head on the Atlantic satellite loops, cold front from this systems stretches all the way to Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico: The deepening low moves on to the polar side of the strong 200 knt+ polar front jet tonight and begins to deepen rapidly tomorrow. But like yesterday's low, it fills on Saturday as it crosses NE across northern Britain, so we miss its most intense phase. Still, we are likely to see 60-70mph coasts across Sern Britain around southern/western coasts and hills, perhaps isolated 80mph gusts in the SW, 50-60mph inland. Jet remains strong next week too looking at model guidance, with the risk of lows deepening across the UK, perhaps explosively, rather than filling - so maybe potential for higher winds than we've seen this week. However, big range of solutions from models over the track, timing and depth of potential lows.

Storms and flooding is what the latest models are showing so it's very relevant to this thread, very overwhelming weather for many, especially for those in the flooded / storm bound southwest and trending colder with an increasing chance of sleet and wet snow with ice & frost overnight.

Pretty clear to me that from mid Feb onwards (especially 3rd week of Feb) we shall see an end to this stormy pattern with pressure rising. You can see this clearly on the SLP mean for the UK and other places like Iceland. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslReyjavic.png http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslCambridgeshire.png So next week we have the potential for snowfall to occur in some locations followed by more settled weather and probably colder weather the week after. Personally I still fancy a decent cold spell to develop during this period.

There would appear to be a fair bit of interest for monday night into tuesday morning, be it with the GFS giving the west a fair shout at some potentially decent snow opportunites, or with the ECM throwing a wee monster at us It'll certainly keep the interest levels up over the weekend at least, firstly though we have an unlikely chance at some transient snow on saturday, thereafter my eyes will be on tuesday.

I think some are in for a surprise come the second half of February and on into March. It could be a very cold end of February and start of spring but again why posters are basing their assumptions on ECM ens etc when they have already led many up the garden path this winter. The strat, trop feed back looks to me as if it will pay dividens with perhaps some wintryness around next week(it would be nice to see snow falling even if it does not settle) but much colder uppers and the prospect of laying snow look a lot more likely to me now around the last third of February and the first 10 days of March, PS. I see some are still challenging for the longest post of the winter competion.

East Anglia and London have been pretty lucky to avoid the worst of the flooding problems (aside from that surge tide of course), but I think the luck will run out tonight. As an aside, I lived in London for 20 years and I found it hilarious how Londoners have struggled due to a reduced Underground service. I overhead one spoiled little girl moaning at Liverpool Street this morning "I've got to walk to St. Pauls? That's, like, miles away". Hmmm, not really, try living in Somerset and experience REAL inconvenience.

I think that the stats that Ali has just produced say it all about this dreadful winter and illustrate clearly this is anything but a run of the mill wet and windy UK winter. In my opinion the attitudes of people are not quite as philosophically dismissive as maybe you suggest. It might indeed be the case that a brave and philosophical attitude in circumstances of adversity was adopted when the floods began in association with the first major round of storms in the festive season - but some six weeks on with no respite, no receding of flood water, and with the severe weather problems ever escalating in the days ahead then weariness, (and for those badly affected) fear and deep anxiety (which will have replaced any of that earlier philosophical positivity) are sadly only likely to keep growing. Just for once, some of the media reporting catches at least some flashes of grim reality...

I think some of the hopes in here re a pattern change are a bit premature, even with those ensembles showing higher pressure towards Iceland, even with some increase in pressure there it could still be some relatively weakish low heights that remain which means perhaps a slacker trough. The mid Atantic ridge could set up but for how long and once the PV has reformed will the energy just flatten the whole pattern again?It could be that the next PV will be weaker over the Canadian sector so this might allow for better trough disruption if theres some blocking near the UK but the ECM ensembles are resolute in not bringing anything much colder to western Europe: A poor set of ensembles, its only the GEFS which has something a little more interesting but we've yet to see anything showing up operational wise in the higher resolution. Even in the GEFS colder solutions are still in the minority, I've yet to see a clear signal to develop any decent cold pooling that the UK could tap into. I don't want to sound like a misery here but I don't really see anything to be excited about in the outputs, bar some marginal snow perhaps but there is no sign yet of a major change that could bring temps down sufficiently to bring some decent snow and temps that can sustain this.

The track of the aforementioned Tuesday storm on the ECMWF det.: Northern and Western areas of the UK getting it bad enough but on that track it would be the Irish Republic that would see the absolute worst of the winds - current projections suggest 90kt max. gusts off the South-West coast of Ireland (104mph). Still strong enough for the UK though with max. gusts of 70kt (~80mph) around Irish Sea coasts from that. The slightly better news from overnight (though I would emphasise the word slightly) is the slight downgrading of peak gusts for Saturday from deterministic modelling, with the suggestions from yesterday of 80kt gusts down the Bristol Channel now reduced to around 65kt - still severe enough but hopefully a decent trend for the poor folk in the South-West. SK

Up early and ready for this deluge cuz now my house is at the point it will not take anymore. On a bright note coffee smells good, but still indecisive as to what too eat for breakfast (bacon Bap, Cornflakes ,Full English, or nothing LoL cuz dont want the electrics cutting out and only having half a full English) Morning Stats 994.0bm (rising 0.6mb/hr) Max gust 18.5 (last Hour) Soil moisture 18.0cb Gentle Breeze Temp 8.4c Dew point 6.4c Rainfall This month (19.8mm) Decided that one of these will be a good purchase for inside my house at present Sorry for Joke, have a good day guys and stay safe

Good news to the Carlos's (the UK equivalent of the Kardashian's maybe). Another Dorset weather spotter to swell the ranks.

Saturday is looking very dodgy indeed and it certainly looks like I picked the wrong weekend to plan a trip down to Bognor.I, for one, commend the Express decision to splash this in its usual style. After watching the models over the past few days first suggest it and then firm up on it, I think the "Express treatment" now remains the only hope of preventing it verifying!

Computer says no. GFS decided to throw a chunk of PV at the forming ridge, interesting end to hi res though. Edit. Save this chart for posterity, not because it's cold but because it is building heights into Greenland from 4 separate sources And we still can't get a Greenland high! Forgive the FI shennanigans

Finally got home early this morning! Left Paris at 2:30pm and arrived in Calais for 7, had a 3 hour delay for boarding and spend another 2.5hrs on the boat due to huge queues, only 1 boat was allowed in the harbour at a time. After switching coaches in Maidstone I finally got back to Southend at 2:30am, and back in Benfleet for 3! Sheet rain and thunder & lightening around Calais late last night, and a few nice frosts in Paris, the ferry crossing was grim to say the least, people falling over, chairs flying and beers smashing, horrendous but fun, especially up on the smoking deck, don't know how we we're still allowed up there tbh, the gusts must have been at least 70mph

Don't think we can rule out any of the solutions for next Tuesday on offer from the models tonight, depending on the phasing of lows over Atlantic with the very strong jet and shortwave upper troughs moving SE out of Labrador/NE Canada. If the lows phase 'favourably' by falling on the cold side of the jet in the right entrance or left exit and engaging with shortwave troughs spawned by chunks of deep cold air moving out from NE Canada then across the N Atlantic, then lows will deepen explosively over the Atlantic and even over the UK as per ECM. If the low doesn't engage so well, as with GFS, then we end up with a less deep low. Very difficult this far off for the models to predict accurately the behaviour of these lows under such volatile conditions caused by the strong jet and deep cold spilling out of Canada. Wouldn't rule out EC. One common theme the UKMO, EC, GFS, JMA and GEM have, is a surge of cold air racing towards the UK on Tuesday direct from the NE of Canada on a strong westerly flow - which hasn't had too much time to modify over the Atlantic. Therefore there is potential, certainly on the rear of the cold front progged to race east across the UK below low pressure moving NE for rain to turn to snow - particularly, but maybe not exclusively, the north and west, followed by sleet and snow showers. However, the cold maybe and is often moderated by models nearer the time - so wouldn't take any charts suggesting snow too literally until much nearer the time. The potential for a low to deepen across/near the UK next Tuesday, rather than filling like yesterdays and Saturday's, is the main concern - as this would bring the risk of stronger winds than we've seen this week or will see on Saturday.

Chilly Milly that brilliant news, being a full time nurse for a while will mean you will get closer to your daughter, AS words are a lot better than I can put on paper. It will be a long and hopefully fully successful recovery at the end of that dusty long and winding road. I never had children or grandchildren who needed long term caring, to be honest I would be useless, I know however it takes a very special person with special talents to care for anyone, but for someone close to you then it takes an angel. You must enjoy the little victories that are won in her struggle, forget the defeats, set realistic targets, but also aim high. You both will get there, and let's be honest the worse is behind you both as both operation where successful. Let's hope the darenth will not flood I know its bad as it goes through Dartford town centre, even the ducks where struggling.

The island certainly is changing shape https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/999758_273790469446648_1147665386_n.jpg https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/t1/p200x200/1898259_507925492658508_593843062_n.jpg https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t31/1548098_507925882658469_742190208_o.jpg https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/1620547_660308924036793_2019374895_n.jpg https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/t1/1901238_10202416988960462_393772845_n.jpg http://www.islandecho.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/freshwatercarpark.jpg http://www.islandecho.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/freshwaterbayjoannethorntonbench.jpg https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/1654303_734563966567883_247009426_n.jpg https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1/1554623_660311004036585_53709383_n.jpg

Hope she is on the road to recovery now, easy enough to lose track of the world outside when you are looking after someone in hospital. My youngest is under the RNOH as well, due at Bolsover Street clinic next week when the next tube strike is due. Am hoping it isn't too rainy on Wednesday as anticipating a fair bit of walking to be done perhaps - either that or a long queue for a taxi I guess.I am thankful that we bought this house and not another I had my eye on a few years ago - that one had the River Darenth running through the front garden and looking at the EA flood warnings map tonight it would seem likely they are somewhat waterlogged at best.

Surprised JH, you seem to be having ago at someone's thoughts?I think people, having ago at interpretations of the models should be encouraged, whether one agrees or not.

so a week later than you though a few days ago?

. You just must very lucky where you live ? Sorry don't mean to sound rude ,but do you not watch the news channels ? It is unbelievable what has been happening & it's just not letting up . I can honestly say that I've not known this sort of weather in all my life , so I wouldn't call this nothing we are not used to ?

The difference next weeks is that it looks like the storm systems will be reaching their deepest and most active phase very close to or right over the UK, rather than weakening & filling depressions crossing us - still fairly potent beasts, respectively. Nasty little beast heading into the NW on the ECM and that wouldn't be the end of them looking at these charts. An exceptional period of weather, the worse potentially saved until the last?!

I must admit to being somewhat surprised with the certainty with which Tamara dismisses any amplification of the pattern out in the Atlantic even though she may well be proven correct. For my part my opinion is unchanged from that which I expressed over a week ago - that a large piece of the Canadian vortex will break off and move East and the upstream pattern behind is not nailed on flat as far as I can see. There will be a weakening of the jet and quite possibly a buckling as we head toward mid month so I do still expect to see some amplification of the pattern with a possible Atlantic ridge though as always with the caveat this may not be enough. In terms of probability I see the disruption of this current stormy pattern after mid month to be much higher than zero if not the more likely solution, perhaps around 40%. Even so that does not mean a block and cold, it just means I see things likely being quieter with an increased probability of colder interludes for now. In the meanwhile we still have Sunday's storm to contend with as well as keeping an eye on the 11th which is a very interesting day MO wise, with anything possible from a severe storm to heavy snow in the Northwest - definitely a date to keep an eye on.

Underwhelming? Those suffering the effects of storms and floods are overwhelmed and with the generally stormy pattern set to continue for at least the next 7-10 days, it looks like becoming even worse. It also looks a rather colder outlook with a higher chance of wet snow and overnight ice/frost.

If only it had been like that last time I visited Polperro. My dog Louis did the most enormous 'you-know-what' (aggravated because he'd been on a long car journey) right on the crowded harbour footpath and it was a very hot day. One of those little blue plastic bags was totally inadequate - in fact I had to run to the nearest pub for a mop and a couple of buckets of water... I won't go on...

Isn't that because as John Holmes says there's quite a lot of human input in the production of a fax as opposed to raw model gobbledegook? Can't beat an experienced weatherman's judgement.

Correct. Varied mention of snow starting Fri AM in varied detailed assessments (a consistent story for some days now from Exeter) but frankly it's such small beer at the moment versus the overwhelmingly pressing issues of forecast priority around the Amber warnings. So yes, some wintry stuff in UKMO output at varied stages out into weekend, including perhaps as far south as e.g. Salisbury Plain (I haven't got time now to give all the detail) but even a cursory glance just now at the latest high-res modelling for rainfall accumulations Thurs-weekend - plus some scary-looking max gust mapping on 4km output by early Saturday - reinforces where out forecast focus lies. If the wintry element looks problematic, they'll warn for it/emphasise it more in forecasts. But we don't want it (i.e. as it stands) to detract from the more pressing messages the public need.

Ireland and NW England, Scotland appear to be most at threat from the storm between +120 to +144. Delighted to see a new trend towards a pattern change emerge in todays output. Shall explain more when I have woken up.

fax for monday interesting chart but just to far out to verify the low to our south is heading north east now first of all that would be rain however as the low head north east will will get an east then a north east flow the 528 air should be over us at the time the winds veer east uppers there is a chance we may see something wintry from this however its only an observation and the track of that low is not certain yet now heres ukmo at 120 fax charts are running with ukmo at present ecm at 120 shows the low a lot further south at 144 ukmo shows this now ecm shows this just slightly different i will run fax now on these and should get a better picture tomorrow on that

Jax, in all fairness, I do take the Micky out of my wife, but I am more in love with her now, than those first few years of marriage, I couldn't think what it would be like coming home to an empty house, without the warm feeling of wondering what the hell I have done this time and how do I get out the latest cock up I made. I think its the knowledge that she is there to support me through the difficult times, the bad days at work, when all you want to do is kick the cat (we haven't got one, but I still want to kick it), the fun times, the birth of the grand kids, the death of a family friend. I know that she will always be there criticising, trying to turn me into her perfect husband, she knowing deep down, that the best she can hope for is the slob that I am. Its a partnership, you give and take, you bend to suit each, and Jax when you meet the right one, something deep down inside tells you, it will be hard, it will be infuriating, you will put your fist through a door in shear rage, but, always there will be that warm glow that I suppose is that terrible thing called love. Man, its fun, I am pleased I done it, and I sincerely hope you will get that bloody annoying bug. But my friend, enjoy your freedom, because you never know when you will get struck down, enjoy everything that is thrown at you. I did and somehow I got a wonderful wife whose 60 today, I been married for more years than I can remember, (but I did get 5 50's and took 5 wickets on 40 occasions) but tomorrow I can absolutely guarantee that I will do something wrong and the battle will re commence. Sorry about this pile of old gobbly gook, but I have had a great night, fine food, no drink and fine company, of her indoors. Can't think of anything to do with weather to finish off with. So goodnight, and everybody have a great evening and day tomorrow.