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Showing content with the highest reputation on 23/12/13 in all areas

  1. 81 points
    Some subtle hints of a New Year pattern change, but it's going to take its time. First, the 500mb flow is fascinating: The most remarkable feature is the sheer strength of the flow across the Atlantic around the base of the upper low heading towards us, quite rare to see such intensity I think. There are changes upstream as the E Pacific ridge fades and once again Pacific systems are heading SE to re-invigorate the upper trough over E USA/Canada. This suggests, on the face of it, more of the same with the jet continuing to propagate in our direction, with the relentless LPs coming with it. However, note the 500mb high near the Pole that's been there for a few days. It may not look much but if it sticks around, once the pressure field across the Atlantic starts to slacken off, it may just hint at HP building. I mentioned this possibility before, but the ferocity of the jet has obliterated any chance of any blocking pattern forming, let alone persisting so far. But in my experience at least, stormy mobile patterns of this intensity cannot sustain themselves for THAT long. So I am sticking with the story I have been telling for a while now, of LP and the upper vortex sinking slowly S and an accompanying flow of colder air, gradually followed by rising pressure to the N and NE. Well, my very best wishes to you all for a good Christmas and my great thanks for so many of you who have added "Like" to my posts, it is most kind and I appreciate it a lot. I hope Santa brings you everything you want! OMM
  2. 45 points
    Well, well ,is the UK in the reaches of a snow fest to start the NewYear ? Our latest special portal forecasts for fresh snowfall including in its parameter the UK with some amazing potential for widespread snowfall. Will give more information when I have looked at the details. We need it now here. C
  3. 27 points
    I thought a week ago you said you weren't posting again until after Xmas such was the poor outlook? Popping back every day to say exactly the same thing without even attempting to back it up followed by the standard heating bill remark doesn't belong in this forum (nor does this I know, but I had to say it). Anyways, recent model output really starting to latch onto the possibilities with the forecast polar height rises (latest AO forecast looking very good) My preferred solution still is an MLB setting up initially then with a chance of some retrogression northwards threafter. However the vortex isn't simply going to vanish into thin air so where is goes, how much it fragments etc is very much going to dicate what happens next and from that we could get lucky. Or not. More and more southerly jet solutions coming out, so I would say there is plenty to be optimistic about right now.
  4. 20 points
    This is what me and all my fellow coldies are waiting for..the Gfs 06z during early January is showing exactly the type of charts I want to see, gradually less emphasis on the stormy and more on the wintry with snow becoming more likely and widespread frosts, even a chance of ice days. I have a feeling we are in for a more pronounced wintry spell early next year, not just based on this run but based on what the models have been hinting at in recent weeks with the jet going south..keep the faith guys.
  5. 19 points
    Starting to get a bit breezy up here and amber warning now out for Highlands and Eilean Siar for tomorrow. May not get on here once the storm kicks in and the power goes of, so everyone have a very happy and very safe Christmas!
  6. 19 points
    That is quite a big wave.... and could really do some damage to the vortex, sk. Highly promising this forecast for (comparatively) early in the New Year. I know I did suggest strong wave 2 activity in Jan to overwhelm the vortex by Feb - but I am even surprised by this forecast.
  7. 18 points
    just deleted 3 absolutely off topic 'north vs south' guff posts........if you want to keep posting them, that's fine by me....it'll take you a couple of mins to make the posts, just 2 seconds for me to delete them....hint hint
  8. 18 points
    GFS 06z FI shows something akin to what I have suggested might happen but hasn't really been modelled before. We have transient ridges, weak high pressure to the North and low pressure to the South, not a classic cold set up by any means as any cold air being pulled in from the North is constantly being mixed out from the SW as disrupting troughs run NW/SE across the UK. It is the classic cold zonal set up which would provide some heavy widespread snowfalls. A lot would depend on the track of the low pressure systems with the snow line moving North and South accordingly, rain turning to snow, snow turning to rain on the boundaries. Northern England is often best placed in such set ups because too far North and you don't always get the ppn and too far South you will more often see rain. Still that is quite a rare set up but interesting to see it being modelled at last as just about everyone would likely see a decent snowfall before the pattern changed to more blocked or more mobile. Posted for illustration not as a forecast. Okay so that is a long way off and may never happen but it is worth illustrating because it also ties in with the idea that troughs may well disrupt more than generally modelled past the mid term and hopefully the nasty looking storm of the 27th will be the last bad storm we see for some time. (You can quote me on this ) As long as we continue to see a Southerly jet and displaced Azores high we will continue to see more blocking opportunities, especially as the Atlantic driven weather begins to meet more resistance from high pressure to the North and East. Disruption, disruption, disruption. ECM Op was quite disappointing this morning wasn't it? But at 240 we still have a Southerly jet modelled and the disappointment should also be tempered by looking at the unlikely way energy is handled from the mid term to our NE - I'm trying not to say that word, but it is lacking. I don't think we can ignore it as a possibility but it is definitely on the pessimistic side of the possible scenarios. Both ECM and GFS 00z ensembles show a cooling trend as we go onto January with a few more colder options and one or two less mild options turning up. We need for that trend to continue because things are very much still in the balance, we certainly haven't reached a tipping point where we can say January will be below average and feature more blocking but I would say that if you live in the North of England your chances of seeing a decent snowfall in the first half of January are significantly higher than they were a few days ago when EC32 was showing Westerly flow and no cold signal for that period. I would think there is still no cold signal on EC32 but with more scatter. So, two more storms to get through and then come the 28th we will have a more definitive view of wintry prospects for January - I think we may just have a peek at 1 or 2 model runs between now and then though.
  9. 17 points
    amazing isn't it?.....the site are doing their best to help out with the threads and give posting guidance, yet there are still some folk who disregard said guidance, either that or a few folk in here have had a few too many sherberts tonight....As Jo rightly mentioned, it's not a competition, it's a discussion on the CURRENT severe weather outbreak, and NOT who's got the biggest gusts or whatever....Believe me, the one measurement a weather station can't record is the speed of wind blowing out of some folks backsides in here tonight! So please, swallow a chill pill, report your weather conditions, summaries, constructive debate etc and leave the point scoring nonsense in the kindergarden...cheers
  10. 17 points
    Event 1 (today and Tuesday) can be divided into three phases of severe wind potential ... Phase 1 arrives shortly across south coast Ireland and southwest England, then sweeps through most other regions from south to north during the day. This phase, while somewhat less severe than what will follow, can still produce some minor damage from 65 kt gusts from a S to SW direction. Phase 2 will be the energized cold front of the main low which will be approaching Donegal Bay tonight. This cold front could tap into much of the jet stream energy even out ahead of the strongest gradients and produce straight line squall gusts to perhaps 70 kts in places, central Ireland and Wales into Midlands appear somewhat favoured in this portion although some risk of damage almost anywhere that this front visits. Phase 3 then comes with the core winds of the extraordinarily deep cyclone and these are likely to be displaced about 10 to 30 mb south of the centre. While much interest will focus on exactly what pressure this storm produces, the real wind potential comes more from the shaping of the isobars and so the strongest winds might be further from the centre than some would assume. This allows for a fairly wide "miss" of land before there's any chance of avoiding strong gusts. I would expect widespread moderate damage from 80 kt gusts and local 90 kt in most exposed locations in both Ireland and Scotland, extending to at least northwest England but possibly further east and south in Britain, if the low achieves pressures below 935 and tracks closer to Malin Head than say 1 deg lat/long. If not, the severe damage is going to be pulled back to more exposed coasts. Meanwhile the second major storm indicated looks considerably worse for all of southern counties of Ireland and any of England or Wales except possibly far north. The second storm due to arrive on 27th might be expected to accelerate and could roar in late 26th instead (probably will in Ireland anyway). The track seems very likely to run over land in Ireland and southern to central Scotland which will expose a much larger area (and population) to damaging gusts which on some maps look record-potential (90-100 kts). This may be an entirely wrong time to wish you all a Merry Christmas. At least the day itself falls into a relative calm between storms (except maybe in northern Scotland or if slowest depictions verify, all of Scotland).
  11. 16 points
    C'mon chap, I think taking pictures to prove their flooding is the last thing on the poster's mind....good grief!
  12. 15 points
    The system is currently well on its way to reach its lowest pressure (about 927 hPa), which is rather impressive. The structural characteristics of the system can be seen very nicely in the 850 hPa temps, as seen below: GFS T:6h 850 hPa temps What can be seen very clearly is 850 hPa temperatures of higher than 0*C circulating into the system from the subtropics, feeding the system itself. Moreover, a band of -10*C uppers is also lurking to the west of the system, also spiralling toward the center. Also note the very sharp temperature gradient(big temperature differences at a very short distance) near Newfoundland (25*C in only 2000 km!), which served as a perfect breeding ground for this low pressure area. The structure of the low is also visible in the dewpoints (surface). GFS T+18h (dewpoints 2m) And finally, a very nice 3D compostion of the wind field of the low can be found here. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=2.28,50.70,1424 It shows very nicely that the system is being fed from 2 distinct airmasses (polar and subtropical), originating from Newfoundland and near Florida, respectively. All stay safe! Sources: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-7.67,51.19,818
  13. 14 points
    to be fair, the SE of England doesn't often get 70-80mph windspeeds, even as gusting. There are probably people in Canada and Finland who are really scornful about us getting all worked up over 18" of snow or -10 of cold. And people in the Balkans who would deride and mock us for getting all over-reacting to summer temperatures of 35 or 36 degrees and claiming we find that "hot"... It's what you're used to - there's millions of people living in a small area in SE England; and mostly they have much further to travel to work than we do in Scotland, so disruption to public transport and motorways hit them really hard. And they're excited and a bit scared about it, so they're focused on it. And we would go on just as much about 70-80mph in a busy travel-time across Scotland's most populous bit - in fact, we have done. And it's what is happening NOW rather than what is happening tomorrow. I dunno - maybe it's BECAUSE I WAS BORN IN ENGLAND OF ENGLISH PARENTS that I feel really really uncomfortable when this normally very friendly and inclusive thread starts on the anti-Englishness. So feel free to keep on taking the mickey, without any attempt to think about how ridiculous this thread would be to people who are used to snow every winter in large quantities, but if you do, you'll lose people like me from it, because I really don't want to feel unwelcome and unwanted in here. It's bad enough when it happens elsewhere. Just maybe try to ease off… take lessons from scottishskier - the most fervent pro-Scotland person I've ever met, but he has never ever ever ever frothed at the mouth.
  14. 14 points
    Good grief, I am saddened to read how childish some are in here. There are numerous people in danger tonight, a couple of people have already sadly died and the worst is yet to come yet all some people can do is encourage argument over North v South debates. Seriously, some need a reality check and actually realise what is really important here. This is really bringing this part of the forum down at the minute. Times like these should encourage understanding and respect for others, not selfish IMBY type bickering. Cannot believe at the amount of grown adults arguing over the most petty thing here. Sorry for the rant but its needed. The KEY thing is STAY SAFE WHEREVER YOU ARE and check on anyone vulnerable. Goodwill at Christmas and all that. Just remember, and be grateful you are in a better position than those grieving over lost loved ones today. Please take a moment to think about what your typing and allow for some courtesy. Its not all about what your location is receiving, the wider picture is also important.
  15. 14 points
    The low to the west of Ireland looks like your standard Atlantic depression for now. It is, though, now sliding under the developmental left exit of a strong 200knt+ jet core and is also moving on to the cold polar side of the jet ... both incremental for deepening the low. But its rapid deepening phase has yet to start. RACY looks to start as a shortwave trough, moving quickly ESE from NE Canada this morning, engages the low and allows it to deepen rapidly from this evening. The trough not only helps nudge the jet to allow the low to come under a more favourable position for deepening but also the cold mid-level air of this trough wrapping into the tightneing circulation willl further enhance the depeening. We now see extensive persistent rain moving in across southwest Britain and Ireland associated with the warm front/warm sector running ahead of the low, this rain spreading across most areas by mid-afternoon. Cold front moves east later this evening across England and Wales, occluded front across Scotland. 15-20mm looking likely quite widely from these fronts, 20-40mm across southern Britain where rain is slowest to clear along cold front, maybe 40-60mm over higher ground in the southwest. Very strong winds in warm sector ahead of this cold front, 925mb winds (not far above the surface) of 75knt+ across this SE/S England later this evening, could lower to the surface, aided by downdrafts in squall line convection likely along cold front. So potential for damaging wind gusts of 70-80mph along the south coast and perhaps inland for a time. Wind will moderate a bit after clearance of cold front overnight across southern Britain at least, but a second phase of even stronger winds is likely to develop over northern and western Britain and Ireland, as the deepening low moves close to NW Scotland. Strongest southwesterly winds look to develop from 7am and last right through until the evening. Gusts of 60-70mph likely mid-Wales and Midlands northwards, perhaps 70-80mph around exposed hills and western coasts, 80-90mph across western Scotland and north coast of Northern Ireland. Colder rPm air sweeping in from the southwest, so cold enough for snow over northern hills, bringing addtional hazard of blizzard conditions and drifting of snow. So, potentially dangerous over higher routes.
  16. 13 points
    The north v south debate rumbles on because frankly those in the north are far used to these wind speeds while those in the south are not. Fact. Now, the main issue, I think, many have is the media coverage of a southern wind event which can be often over-hyped by a London-centric media. Fact. Those in the north (yes, there are less populated areas up here) feel miffed about this purely because life goes on and the media are not that 24/7 about it further north. Fact. What I did find slightly annoying yesterday was the "Breaking News" of severe weather coming to the UK. Of course, we all knew this, but when I saw in BIG RED FLASHING LETTERS that the UK was under a storm warning, why did they have reporters at London and Manchester? Is that really representative of a north/south media coverage? I think not. Fact. So, this an adult writing the above, not someone being told to grow up. Meanwhile, I'm very interested to know how a 925mb bomb will actually affect Scotland tomorrow. We've not seen these pressure gradients often, so we should learn from it.
  17. 12 points
    Hey people, Im in north west highlands, 956mb at mo and just waiting for it to fall....this is getting weird now, calm outside and i can feel something is coming yet alone know. caught the last few gemanoids (sp?) tonight through a gap in the forest. they are so beautiful! Anyway, i very kindly had an invite here and just wanted to say its a pleasure to be here...now back to storm watching...does anyone think the depression that follows tomorrows is worse for us up here?? the eye lands right on us? Tris
  18. 11 points
    Time for a new thread as it is going to get quite busy in the next 24 hrs as our latest Atlantic storm deepens and high impact weather expected for much of Xmas Eve. Gales, Snow, Thunder, Lightning - the whole works. Let's please draw a line under the media bias debate and use the relevant thread for commentary on this, whilst I agree with points on both sides of the argument, it really detracts from the thread and creates an unnecessary atmosphere. Travel safely and keep an eye on the Met Office and Travel updates. Wishing you all a very merry festive period. Friendly banter, preferably about the weather but as always not essential for this thread.. Let's go...
  19. 11 points
    Not sure where in the UK you were in the storm in Oct '87, but this is no where as bad now as it was back then (yet!)
  20. 11 points
    I have noticed that ECMWF is perhaps slightly too optimistic in the 10 day range for the upper strat, being a bit too warm and having the vortex slightly too weak. I cant say if it is a bias or not, because I dont have enough observations. But it probably all originates from the over optimistic wave activity in the 10 day range, which I have noticed on more occasions this year and last year. I am not saying that the last run is unrealistic, but just trying to point out a possible bias. All that, while the GFS has a negative bias for height and temperature, growing with time. basically meaning that it has a slightly too strong vortex at 10mb in the FI. There is a notable difference after the resolution decrease (204-384). The same goes for ensemble means, while they have no obvious bias for temperature. Best regards.
  21. 11 points
    Sleety snaw rain mix falling here now. Breeze picking up. Stuff than can blow over pushed over or tied down. Gutters all cleared after the other day's leak. Flag + pole stowed safely. Big pile of wood by the fire and coal bucket full. Beers chilling. Well, all set then.
  22. 11 points
    trending to drop heights to our south on both naefs and ecm extended. with mid atlantic ridging and eastern european ridge intact, that is beginning to 'wet my whistle' from a cold perspective.also, how appropriate that you recently changed your name happy days !!!
  23. 11 points
    Morning. Well, do you want the good news or the bad news? Actually there isn't any good news it's all bad! As far as I can tell, it's still on course, it's every bit as strong and it actually looks as if it is going to last longer. It's also coming in with snow at times! GFS is showing a build up for here during the early hours tomorrow and has it raging by 9am right through the day and starting to ease slightly by 9pm-midnight. I really can't tell how deep the pressure is but looks to be around 930mbs and probably lower. I am not going to cherry pick charts, I don't have to as they are pretty much all the same. Here are the 500s,850s and precipitation charts for midday tomorrow:
  24. 10 points
    From the severe thread, mesosphere spotted this wayward flight from Stockholm. Pilots not fancying landing this evening...
  25. 10 points
    Haha! Have come in here because it is safer....I just wanted to say stay safe tomorrow; that I hope no-one loses power and you can all get your Christmas dinners cooked, that chimney stacks remain intact, roof slates stay in-situ and no-one gets hurt or is unable to see their families over the festive period.Missing Scotland dreadfully!! Although it is now beginning to feel a bit like East Ayrshire, when Bawbag started knocking on the door, where I am at the moment.Take care tomorrow and on Friday and Happy Christmas to the best nw thread!
  26. 10 points
    Good posting by Old Met Man in the Mad Thread. The thing I liked most is him saying these screaming jets run out of steam eventually, which I absolutely agree with. I do think proper cold weather will appear (for a time at least) after the first week in January. Lots of charlatans in that thread IMHO, but he's one of a bunch I look for, in their postings.
  27. 10 points
    Evening all! Well, tis a bit blowy out there.... We've got a fence panel down and the power has gone off twice, although not for very long. Looks like a wild night for many! Can I just ask that we all keep reasonably behaved this evening, lots of valuable updates and reports and (hopefully) questions being asked, but the smatterings of 'My storm isn't as good as your storm/the 'Oh, is it windy' type trolling/ the media won't cover our weather because I'm north of Watford' have started to creep in, and it would be nice if everyone remained civil.
  28. 10 points
    Well that's not bad I guess guys you have gone most of the day before starting the boring north v south debate. Grow up.
  29. 10 points
    I'm sure my neighbours must think I'm mad as a box of frogs standing out there in the foulest weather for months, brandishing a strange device and thrusting it towards the sky.... Biggest gusts currently 39mph here.
  30. 10 points
    Afternoon all. Just had a chance to look at the model outputs and a mixed bag after yesterdays more exciting runs especially from the GFS 12hrs run. Gone is the Norway Gap which helped to reinforce the Arctic high, so it looks like it might be the slower route to anything more wintry. Looking at the ECM zonal info for the strat and we do see a reduction in speeds and also the continued reversal of those winds towards the pole, this may translate to a slowing of low pressure out of the ne USA, it still should keep the Arctic high in the picture: Overall the outputs continue to have some disagreements as to where exactly the Arctic high sets up, how much southwards ridging we see and its alignment which does impact the jet axis, the GFS 06hrs run was an upturn after the mixed 00hrs outputs, you can see there that even with a strong PV you can still get some trough disruption and some interest developing over the UK: Looking at the GEFS theres enough potentially interesting solutions there in terms of jet axis and positive anomalies to the north that suggest theres a decent chance of something colder developing for January, you've still got a split there but we've moved on from last week when the ensembles were just all singing from the same hymn sheet at day ten.
  31. 10 points
    as we go into january looks promising bad thing the sheer amount of rain showing im off to bed now goodnight all i will try to post the early morning run to see if any changes take care all
  32. 9 points
    With this sort of pattern now being thrown up in just a week or so as a possibility things are beginning to get rather exciting Let's hope for the upgrades to keep on coming through the rest of the week!
  33. 9 points
    And for the most part he's been right. I think you maybe need to view the models again as they look nothing like those from 2005.
  34. 9 points
    Wind still picking up here. Strong but nothing unusual yet. Christmas lunch sorted out, care of Uncle Bernard and Aunt Bessie. :winky:
  35. 9 points
    Forgive me, I can see your point. That said, are we similarly selfish to find snow exciting given the potential chaos it can bring? And are the stormchasers, some from this very forum, who travel to the US to hunt tornadoes selfish for finding fun in something that can bring immense loss of life? It's a moral grey area.
  36. 9 points
    the warnings reflect likelihood of disruption, not severity of weather as such. So 35mph sustained/ 70mph gusts across most of Scotland is a bit tricky but we'll be fine = yellow. But 25mph sustained/ 50mph gusts across some of SE England will take out trees not used to it, buildings not designed for it, etc. Plus a higher proportion of people who don't have experience to have learnt respect for the weather and so go out and do stupid things. Most of what might fall down/ blow over/ collapse/ go flying already did it in Scotland aeons ago… Well, except the land itself. And we're kinda waiting to see how that one goes over the next week. That referendum may end up being about our independence from Denmark…
  37. 9 points
    Interesting end to the latest ECMWF stratosphere forecast: Concurrent wave 1 and wave 2 attacks at the top of the stratosphere. As Chio has already said nothing yet breaking the surf zone, with the E-P Flux facing away from the pole at the moment: We ideally could do with some poleward flux in to January, but should the wave 1 attack continue to ramp up following the wave 2 attack then with more and more pressure being piled on to the vortex eventually something has to give. We saw something similar last year (though in reverse if I recall correctly - wave 1 followed by wave 2). Most forecasts for the winter as a whole currently look right on track. SK
  38. 9 points
  39. 9 points
    Im gob smacked.. Mate 10 miles down the road.. MUCH higher up though has just posted this on Facebook.. (Berkshire)
  40. 9 points
    Hard to believe reading page 43 that theres two of the most serious storms in the relaiable for 20 years approaching. Did someone say it was going to snow?!!
  41. 8 points
    Hi people, My first post here as a novice, im watching the pressure tumbling here in the north west highlands. my thoughts are with those down south and i hope everyone stays safe! On december 5th i thought we were going to lose our roof, somehow my weather mast stayed up! it was the first time i was in fear and myself and the wife moved to the center room downstairs at 3.30am...the thunder and lightening with it was prophetic! But i have been tracking this storm for around 7 days and im nervous to be honest....but the low pressure following also concerns me, it seems epic??!! on the second low pressure system around new years eve the "eye" lands right on the highlands. As a novice could someone tell me about the eye of these storms? I know they are not like hurricanes but is that the worst area in an atlantic storm as a given rule?? or is it the mildest? I have a feeling being where i am that its going to be a wee bitty rough up here!!! thoughts with down south though in a big way! Tris
  42. 8 points
    Well if that's the case Lorenzo can you delete the storm from the charts and replace it with some snow please? :-)
  43. 8 points
    Getting bored of this... can we please move on. On the other hand, I can report the delete button is working well.
  44. 8 points
    Good evening from a very stormy West Country. Here is the latest look at the midday outputs from the NWP output for today Monday December 23rd 2013. All output tonight shows a very intense depression West of the Hebrides with some exceptionally low central pressure readings over the next 12-24 hours as its is shown to move gently North. The spell of torrential rain and severe gales continues across Southern Britain for another 6-9 hours before a clearance from the West later in the night sees wind speeds fall and the rain turn more showery as it turns somewhat colder. In the far NW storm force winds for a time later tonight and at first tomorrow are possible. All areas are shown to see a windy day tomorrow as the Low still has total influence over all areas tomorrow with a mix of sunshine and squally showers for all. Through Christmas day and Boxing Day the weather relaxes somewhat in a sunshine and showery mix with some welcome relief from strong winds for most. By Friday a new intense Low moves NE close to Western Ireland deepening explosively and returning rain and severe gales once more to all areas through the course of the day. the weekend then becomes rather colder and showery again in a blustery Westerly flow. GFS then shows a continuation of wet and stormy conditions through the period from the weekend and over the New Year with continued flooding and high wind speeds still very newsworthy at times. Once into the New Year though still very changeable and often wet the weather becomes less stormy and steadily colder at times with some sleet or snow featuring across the UK and not always just over the hills. UKMO tonight shows Sundays chart with yet another rapidly deepening depression moving NE close to Northern Ireland with severe gales renewed over Southern Britain and heavy, persistent rain sweeping NE to England and Wales through the day. GEM tonight shows a barrage of Low pressure and strong winds across the UK on the run up to the New Year and some way beyond with an awful lot of rain and periods of very strong winds the main ingredients of the weather with academically average temperatures throughout. NAVGEM too shows no let up in the windy and very wet weather at times from Christmas out to New Years Eve at least. ECM also shows very changeable and often wet and windy weather well into the New Year though the intensity of the wind may reduce somewhat as we move into 2014. The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions continuing throughout with wet weather at times for all. The very worst of the rain may lessen with time. The colder weather that develops from the operational late in the run is not well supported by other members of the ensemble group. The Jet Stream continues to power Eastward over the Atlantic and around the British Isles throughout the run with the usual oscillating pattern North then South very indicative of very changeable and stormy weather. In Summary there is still a lot of support for a lot more very strong winds and heavy rain for a good while yet before things improve somewhat. It is unlikely that any improvement of note in the current pattern will take place this side of the New Year and with a very strong Jet Stream in conjunction with stark temperature contrasts over the States showing little signs of relenting the pattern could well last out towards the middle of January before any significant change arrives.
  45. 8 points
    As I said last week, timing was always going to be important. The vortex looks like it may be tested on two fronts simultaneously.....which is what we want to see. A repeat of the Pacific ridging we saw end of Nov + some decent warming, (two factors which aren't linked IMO), look to collude if the GFS is anything to put stock in. As short a time as 2 days ago people were 'writing off' January. Now it looks like we have some potential showing
  46. 8 points
    Green wheelie bin made a bid for freedom and then when I went after it, it tried to put me off by falling over and disgorging it's lightweight contents out along the entire estate. That kept me on my toes Sorry to those in Polegate and Hailsham who are just about to receive several tin cans, some old newspapers and a big Christmas lights box!!
  47. 8 points
  48. 8 points
    Morning FBP, morning all. Wasn't too bad on the coast here yesterday to start with: Then it started to deteriorate So we're now only a few hours away from the big storm and I guess everybody pretty much knows what's coming by now. I'll go and find a few charts and satellite shots so we can keep an eye on progression anyway.
  49. 8 points
    Currently stand on top of an 800ft hill in dorset Wind is already strong and the trees making massive noise Clouds racing past above very deep grey but cloud base at about 1200ft. In the distance heavy rain and a cloud base of 700ft or so very definite. It's coming
  50. 8 points
    Erm. 100mph winds... Check. Mention of hurricane from VERY respected establishments,( Cough.. NOAA.. Cough.. Erm. Did I cough early? ).... Check. I can see we have a N/S devide bunch of BS going on here, Lets stop now. Unless you are smack bang in the middle of the UK in a ditch. You will certainly see some very gusty and possibly sustained winds. The South, West, NW, NE, Hell pretty much ANY exposed area will see 80mph+ wind gusts over the next 64+ hours. The western side of Ireland are about to get one hell of a kick in, and again on friday. Same goes for the south , NW and NE of Scotland. Now.. Does anyone have anything half constructive to say?.
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