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Hope he pulls through Fred.

Ian, Please can you provide some clearer analysis or discussion to explain your view point. Or, it will just mean anyone can pick any chart and say right once we get to 264 on the GFS its nailed, or once we get to 144 on UKMO its a long way back, or that 300 chart on CFS is likely. It's cherry picking. It's clear you have a reason for repeatedly writing such 'long way back from there' statements, however until anyone actually knows why....we will never be in a position to either counter or support your thoughts. FWIW, wave 2 activity in the strat is looking interesting this morning, the slower jet profile at 168 on ECM will probably re-appear on the 12z, so long way back from wherever that is, I don't think this will be the case. Anyway hopefully you can enlighten us..

For what it's worth, UKMO note how MOGREPS ushers-in a much more unbiased flow after next weekend with N more unsettled but they also continue to stress possibility of E/SE anticyclonic flow, which although very much the minority ensemble solution, would prove "very cold" in their words.

When I first presented the Idea of a scandi high around a week ago, then over the few days leading up to that long post Monday the proposal was a ridge thrown into Scandi that gets cut off with undercutting, well I think that we do get the scandi high, however as MANY will agree, sometimes to get the cold to the UK ( Upper cold ) it sometimes takes 2 even 3 attempts & the third one is often linked in with a polar high- It seems that many may be looking at the wrong place on the maps - in terms of the azores low to undercut- Please remember this straight forward bit of info to get deep cold into the UL ( not just surface cold) you will only ever get undercutting & a sustainable high If there is a polar high to force a split in the jet ( or a Siberian high ridging west) to join the ridge in the atlantic moving NE- No polar high usually = a high that meanders around as a sceuro high- here are some examples of what to look for- Svalbard is the focal point. then the following charts http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-21-12-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-22-12-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-23-12-0.png Also, http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1956/archivesnh-1956-1-28-12-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1956/archivesnh-1956-1-29-12-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1956/archivesnh-1956-1-30-12-0.png & finally http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archivesnh-1987-1-7-12-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archivesnh-1987-1-8-12-0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archivesnh-1987-1-9-12-0.png So we shouldn't be looking SW we should be looking NE for the key indicators: Vertical ( or near vertical) ridging towards Svalbard Energy diving S/SE over scandi whilst the ridge builds on Northwards Polar heights ridging OVER the pole or from Russia to support the block & cut the atlantic off The ECM shows SOME of the signals tonight especially at 216 & 240 - but it does require that element of vertical advection Possibilities on the cross polar ridging. If you look at our chances they come at intervals 192 & 240 for better chances of deep cold. In summary tonight- A week of meandering southerly / SE flow with generally cold conditions at the surface especially for the England- My projected 'fun' maps were 13/14- but maybe it will be 14/15. The key being persistent spells of ridging up to the pole looks to be the start of the domino effect to cold down the line. However the stumbling block being if the advection is not quite northerly & any low moving up the blocking cuts off the conjoined highs by 'getting through the gap' & moves ESE into any wave of energy trying to come SW over scandi then its not going to happen..... S

Upper cold potential has been as unlikely in truth as any zonal re-set. Mid latitude high pressure has been the most likely contender for some time The evolution of the pattern as modelled has been well advertised through the last week or so of November and into this first week of December. A transfer of the polar vortex from Siberia as at the same time the Aleutian High starts to retrograde westwards into the Pacific. Essentially we see a change upstream over the coming days from a +AO/-EPO pattern to a +AO/neutral to +EPO pattern. In this way, as suggested might happen, we are at this very time in the process of losing the potential for atlantic ridging (which hasn't come to as much as some modelling flattered to deceive anyway) as the vortex energy increases to the NW and sets up a downstream ridge over nearby Europe. The strength and position of the vortex ensures that any notion of heights into Scandinavia was never, imo, much of a starting consideration and with no help from the t/c's we are probably stuck with this pattern into the middle of December and beyond. The positive is that the jet stream, whatever the state of the AO these post modern days, is keen to stay meridional. This stands us in good stead for the longer term, as seasonal wavelengths change, and hopefully a return of that Aleutian poleward ridge and a further re-shuffling and resumed attack on the vortex. However, for the foresseable future then, a lot of patience required - at least there is little wind and rain to contend with for most parts of the UK and some continental influence should keep areas away from some NW and Western coasts with seasonally colder surface temperatures

I'm getting to the point when I am going to have to put everyone as 'ignore' in my preferences and just keep Frosty - I like the way he clings to anything positive

Wish him well...take care...

Wow, it's gloomy in here tonight! Although I think the output tonight proves that the next ten days are going to be uneventful to say the least, I refuse to write off December on the 6th! My reasoning for this is I believe that weather is ultimately chaotic and tiny things may have huge effects later. So don't fear, someone's going to boil a kettle outside in Mongolia in the next couple of days, set off a massive chain of events leading to a sausage shaped Scandi High and then cold fans can look forward to an raging Easterly at Christmas..... Maybe.

EC32 already out. Yes, signal broadly similar and confirms UKMO view on the flow diagnostics for trend period. Blocking to E/SE waning later Dec; average-mild anomalies splattered across output through to end of month. Nothing's a done deal, of course, but broadscale outcome is looking more and more consensual across all the key operational centres.

Correct - degree of mixing is critical and gradients hardly look especially sporting. Some areas will indeed be milder in strict sense (e.g. western / NW coastal districts) but conversely chilly to SE, albeit amount of insolation day-to-day hard to gauge given tricky boundary layer f'cast issues (not least prevalence and longevity of any fog, plus nuance changes in the flow direction such as more backed at times).

A couple of piccys of this mornings snow. Also check out the webcam at : http://gulberwickweather.co.uk/webcam.jpg although looks like I'll have to go and clear the window just had another heavy shower!

Yep. Word has it Steve Murr has trekked up to the N Pole and is building the biggest bonfire known to man in a vain attempt to heat up that pesky stratosphere. The predicted result is shown above

Unfortunately to get cold upper air into the UK you need a favourable vortex positioning, you might manage an inversion even with mild uppers under high pressure but that's it. There is no way to transport cold out of the Arctic with the PV stuck to the north, vortex positioning, orientation, whether its split is crucial for cold into the UK. You can manage a decent easterly even with an evil looking PV but this has to be aligned favourably much further to the nw. Simply put if someone said that the PV will remain in one and stuck to the north of the UK near southern Greenland then its easy to make a forecast, indeed if someone drew a global map of the NH just showing the vortex positioning/ orientation and whether its one or split it would be relatively easy to fill in the gaps with the synoptics. Sadly Barry the PV is the King when it comes to winter patterns.

Why are people so negative? Yeah, the outlooks poor. Oh well, it's 3 weeks until Christmas and January, February and March are always better for cold. It might not be snowy but it's not zonal, the actual weather is the real thing to be negative about. It's been dull for months and will continute to be for another fortnight or so. Put yourself to the start of summer - it's like people saying 'THE SUMMERS OVER' - 'THERE'S GOING TO BE NO WARM DAYS THIS SUMMER, NOT 1' in late May. Farcical. Get a grip of yourselves. Winter's only just got it's head through the door (in seasonal terms) - it's here for another 3 months minimum.

I'm trying really hard to bring all us coldies something to cheer on the models, I will keep looking guys.

The key word here though Ian is CAN. Just because it CAN occur, doesn't necessarily mean it will occur. In my mind I've pretty much written off the period before Xmas but that is just my opinion and I could easily be wrong. For people reading this thread who are lurkers its worth remembering that even in notably mild winters (and lets remember its the 6th December) it is very unusual for there not to be at least one cold spell that holds interest. 1988 was the worst Winter I experienced and that was probably a once every two hundred years event. In summary its about as likely to happen this year as another 1963. It was pretty grim last year through December and the Xmas / New year period so yes, its grim and yes patience is needed but your post is over dramatic! Jason

Any chance of analysis, data, quote, reference or indeed anything at all to back up that statement?

It's like groundhog day on here.....not just in terms of the weather either. Every time I view this thread there's a one line post from one person talking about how it's going to be zonal- like a stuck record. It hasn't been zonal for weeks (I guess it's another innocuous word threatening to be banished by the swear filter at this rate). Nothing more to say at present other than there looks to be nothing particularly inspiring on the horizon just yet. We get thrown a bit of interest (increased amplification) then it's subsequently dropped once more. High pressure around Europe starting to slightly concern me going forward but plenty of time for things to change. P.S give it 5 years and at this rate all posts will consist of is caravans and even larger teapots!

Morning all, or is it afternoon, i'm a tad tired So my first port of call last night was Felixstowe Ferry, arrived to find quite a gathering of home and business owners getting the last bits onto higher ground so lent a hand to help them get done, amazingly they were all rather upbeat and excited about what was about to happen, the consensus seemed to be that its mother nature you can't stop it so you may as well enjoy seeing it. I didn't stay too long after the water started rushing in (and it did come fast) as the only road in or out would fill up fast as it took hold. So then it was down to the seafront where it was good too see that the flood defences were hard at work and it was looking like as i said yesterday, just a little splash over the wall and not a raging torrent. On my way back to Ipswich and a quick stop to see how the town was bearing up, a few roads closed as the water reached its peak but again nowhere near as bad as it could have been.

Here are some photos from the Ipswich Star of the floods at the waterside early this morning.

1020 and still -4C! Approx 5 cms of level snow but up to 30 cms deep in places.

Dunno if any of you have seen this.....I guess the Volvo's a write off!

Quite a long way out to be calling that already. What is stopping the slightest unexpected movement of the jet and then altering the pattern massively in the long run? It is way way way too early to be calling anything in January, even from an experts point of view.

I think the fact that where we are positioned does lend itself to favouring milder Atlantic based conditions is certainly one reason. However, I can't help but thinking that there is more than a little mischief in some of the posts predicting mild outcomes way in the future, because said posters know they will get a bite from cold fans. Mild lovers seem just as capable of cherry picking charts to suit their agenda as coldies!

Afternoon all,Dont know how many of you have read some of Ian Currie's books, or indeed some of you may have heard him on Radio London and LBC, where he had a weekly weather forecasting slot, for a while, some years ago. You may well have heard his Radio 4 programme, based on his book Frost, Freezes and Fairs or seen him forecasting on Cable TV.Many of you may well have read the excellent series of County Weather books, based on major weather events in Essex, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, etc, which Ian Currie was the co-author of.I contacted him with the view of attending some of his weather related talks, as he is involved in the Meteorological branch of the Croydon Natural History and Scientific Society. Also I wanted to try and get a couple of copies of those County Weather books, as they are mostly out of print now. The Kent one for myself and hopefully a copy of the Sussex one for Tamara, who I knew had been wanting to get a copy of that county's major weather events, after moving down to Sussex some years ago.To cut a further long story short, Mr. Currie kindly agreed to meet myself and Tamara yesterday evening, to have a chat about the issues I've mentioned above. We had a really fascinating 3 hours with him and came away with our own personally signed copies of the Kent and Sussex Weather books. You can imagine that when you get 3 weather enthusiasts together, the 3 hours seemed like 3 minutes, we could have gone on for another 3 days, so interesting was the discussion, with a full and hearty swapping of views and weather memories. He really was an interesting and hospitable host to both myself and Tamara and we came away with a real buzz about the evening.I mentioned to Ian that I'd ask members on the SE Regional thread, if any would like to attend some of his presentations on behalf of the Society I've mentioned above and he will be forwarding his schedule of events to me, in due course. Although the Society is based in Croydon, he actually holds these presentations throughout S.E.England and even further afield. Some of his chats are to closed Societies only but the majority are open to anyone who wants to come along to view them.As soon as Ian lets me know his timetable of events, I'll post them up in here. It's certainly worth going along to hear him talk about his weather experiences and indeed major weather events over the centuries.Regards,Tom.

I am indeed Triple x and still post fairly regularly. Spec Savers it is for you then . Thanks for asking though. I really feel for all the folk who saw their homes and businesses affected by these events but relieved that for a number of reasons it wasn't so much worse. Let's hope they are able to recover soon.

Interestingly, and this doesn't happen often, the average surface temperatures could be lower than the 850hPa temps on some of those days in some areas.

Just been to Brightlingsea promenade, to witness the new saltwater lake there and the beach hut carnage.

Thinking of you and your family mate, best wishes

Level snow depth of 5cms.

Gales, heavy snow showers and sub zero temperatures currently -4.7C with a wind chill of -12.3C!

Yep cold never gonna happen, mild is a cert, tho peoples opinion of what mild means on here is also up for grabs. Dont let the doom n gloom merchants Spoil your enjoyment of this thread. they do it for a reason they get a kick out of it. bit sad but thats life. Will copy n paste this and pm it as dont think this post will be on here for long. Feel your pain

This Fax chart is actually a better guide than the NMM has been - what we saw there was a decaying warm front, which is why it didn't bring any milder air but also didn't bring much in the way of precipitation either. The warm front won't push in until at least midnight but in the interim we've got a few showers forming in the very slight upper level westerly flow: When the line with the roundy bits on it passes over your house the fun ends and we all turn back into pumpkins for the next week or two at least.

we have now settled on our high being a sceuro block. some will say thats its bound to sink se into europe allowing a zonal flow across the uk. if so, thats currently conjecture. all the modelling i can see currently shows the block likely to keep a continental drift over the se of the uk. the nw half likely to be affected from time to time by a more pronounced sw flow bringing some rain and higher temps. at this stage its absolutely impossible to call surface conditions across those parts of the uk affected by the slack flow. we could be frosty by night and above av by day in weak dec sunshine. conversely we could be cool by day under slate grey skies whilst the nights could be frost free and murky. im now wondering where the p/v is going during week 2. some hints that it might transfer its main centre back towards w siberia. if so, our scuero block cannot survive and will either have to sink or retrogress into the atlantic with the w-e movement of the lw trough. it does look a pretty tedious period of model watching approaching (thats normally the signal for 'fireworks'!).

Hi guys, I never post on here as I'm still a huge novice but this is the 3rd winter that I've followed the forum. I just wanted to know why these mild outlooks (especially charts for 16 Dec, supposedly FI?!) are always taken as gospel and everyone is always pretty confident they'll definitely happen? Is it because statistically we're more likely to receive that type of weather or maybe it's because it takes a longer period for the PV to split? I'm just always confused as to why milder runs are given more belief than if the runs were currently showing cold? Many thanks

By the way, good luck to anyone making predictions for January being very mild based on a couple of days' model runs and some questionable historic parallels. If they're right I'll be the first to come back on here and congratulate their foresight (or sheer good luck), but I prefer to stick to the school of thought that we can't possibly know, six days into winter, what the weather has planned for the next eight weeks. The weather can, and regularly does, surprise us all, and I would barely rise an eyebrow if the models all switched again soon to a much different outlook when they pick up on an current unknowable.

Just to add to my last post.....some people seem to think that the only way out of this pattern is via a zonal reset. That's not the case at all- if conditions become favourable upstream then it's still possible for a developing Scandi high or pressure rises out west/northwest. A zonal spell will be symptomatic of a poor set up rather than of a gateway to wintry nirvana.

I think this thread and Netwaether generally was a great source of national and local information!

Also I do feel the government's response was a good one, no matter what we might think of DC and his pals. The actions taken by them and the EA, British Army and other sections of society certainly deserve our respect.

I was going to update today as well suggesting something similar guys. The stratosphere is behaving true to form and as one would expect this early in the season. The cooling is driving the strong vortex conditions and the wave activity is just not strong enough to disrupt the vortex enough. If we remember the feedback mechanism described in the first post, then this year will be a true examination of that process. Come January, then I suspect that we will see greater vortex distortion from increased wave 2 activity - this will improve with seasonal wavelength changes through winter as they increase with amplitude as we progress.

ECM has hints of something on the Wave 2 plots, however this dissipates by day 10, still have seen these build day on day also, so worth keeping an eye on. The 30hPa plot below gives a good perspective of the other warming we have been tracking. Whether this is remains in the surf zone ( Ed can clarify if this is correct use of that term) is also worth keeping an eye on. Hints of something down the line perhaps. Found this on Joe D'Aleo blog last night, a nice depiction of the QBO / Solar base states & the JMA plot of 30hPa temps With such a concentrated vortex can't hep thinking we need that Asian MT event, frictional torques not supportive, a shift in GLAAM required. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltauf.90day.gif A case of patiently observing just now.

Morning all, As far as I can tell so far that the situation would have been far worse for people's lives if all the authorities and emergency services hadn't been so brilliant. With the current one sided news coverage I am not sure how much we will see, but I hope if you were in an a red area you haven't been too badly affected. Interestingly I see that there are alot of comments on the BBC webpage on Facebook remarking about the unnecessary 24hour coverage of Mandela, so I suspect that this will be mentioned on points of view. I suspect the global event reason will be used. I haven't bothered to put the TV on yet as it is the rolling interviews they use time and time again that are just a waste of time. Anyway enough of that, I wish all of you hopefully a lovely day.

Morning all. I've not had a chance to catch up fully on the flooding yet but a quick look in here and media sources seems to indicate there has been some in our region and also a few evacuations? Hopefully no more fatalities but I think there will be some inevitable damage. Lets hope that the worst of it is over and recovery is swift, it seems like many have escaped a 1953 scenario which is positive. Sad news about Nelson Mandela, but he was a very old man who lived the later part of his life to fulfil a dream of a freeing South Africa from apartheid and bringing people together - a very worthy cause and done with great Statesmanship and dignity.

Morning all, don't think its appropriate today with what went on last night with the storm surge for any light hearted banter, so just wish anyone affected, all the best, and I hope high tides today passes without anymore incidents. Good luck everyone.

guys think before you go out is it safe?

12.30 and still nearly 50 people on this forum shows the concern and interest in current conditions..take note UK media!!!!

The thing that really annoys me is that if this storm surge was happening in America Sky and bbc would be all over it Surely our news service should be dedicated to public safety At least have an update every 15 mins

Inverness battered by severe gales, partially flooded, frozen over and then given a covering of snow all in one day, Scottish December!

Here are the Manchester 2m temps based on that ECM 0z runhttp://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.htmlI have to say it doesn't look especially mild to me.

morning all. News from back home is that our house came out unscathed thank goodness. Don't know if others were so lucky though. Quite shocking scenes down the coast in Lowestoft though.