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Horrific scenes across Southern Britian as the worse storm in over 10 years hits earlier than expected; (Caveat: Post intended as a joke and not to be taken seriously. Not representative of my thoughts.)

*Amber Warning issued by the Met Office in conjunction with Netweather.tv* Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45 Valid from - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45 Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00 Outbreaks of verbal diarrhoea currently affecting parts of the thread are forecast to rapidly intensify during the forecasting period. Normal members are advised to take great care and the necessary precautions such as reporting all instances of verbal diarrhoea and not be sucked in by it. hint hint!

BRING ON THE SNOW

There seem to be a considerable number of contributors in here who are waiting to jump on the Met' Office if the forthcoming storm fails to live up to expectations. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is forecasting in the truest sense of the word; ie deciding what this feature will do when, or if, it interacts with the jet stream from a starting point of almost nothing. It's a world away from having a developed area of low pressure moving across the Atlantic to bring stormy weather when the biggest issue is the timing of its' arrival. Before anyone trots out the arguments about 'the biggest super computers in the world' and 'the amount of funding they get' let's remember how vast and complex the atmosphere is; the super computers are at the limit of their capabilities in situations like this and a degree of uncertainty as to the eventual outcome will never be eliminated. This system still has the potential to be damaging (as a quick look at the fax charts will illustrate), as it's projected to deepen from around 977 mb in the south west of the country to below 966 mb by the time it's over the North Sea 12 hours later. Any system which is still deepening and is moving at about 50 mph is likely to invoke weather warnings but don't forget that the warnings are for what could potentially happen given the best knowledge of the atmosphere at the time they're issued, rather than a statement of fact.

I would be quite concerned for anyone who wished for death and destruction whatever the cause, Gary. But the point I was making was that no true weather enthusiast is wanting that. But I am wondering what point you are trying to make other than trying to disrupt a thread that is full of weather enthusiasts enjoying their passion.

That is a really poor analogy, Gary. Weather enthusiasts are always going to be more interested in the rarer extremes in the same way that train spotters would be more interested in rarer engines. No one wants to see death and destruction but we all like to witness the power of nature up close.

This London bashing and accusations of a southern media basis are becoming very tiresome! yes everyone knows that people further north are a bit more used to strong winds and stormy conditions and this probably would be met with a shrug of the shoulder in the Northern Isles but that's the point! the fact that its a bit more unusual to see the possibility of a very strong storm in the south of course will play into the media and anything that effects a largely populated area including the capital is always going to warrant more headlines. The same would happen if it was Paris, Rome etc, its just more newsworthy. And as for this anti Met Office sentiment that's seriously beginning to get on my wick, what do people expect the UKMO to do, just sit there and say nothing in case it gets downgraded at the last minute, they can only go on the models and data they have and until very recently that showed a very worrying storm, the last time I looked their head forecaster wasn't Mystic Meg so what would people have preferred they do?

Way too many people trolling this discussion currently - either those intent on disrupting the discussion rather than adding to it positively stop, or we'll have no option but to take action to stop you. To add to this, all those responding to people who are seeking to cause disruption to the thread, please stop - we can deal with one post quickly, but 1 post + 20 replies is more hassle and takes the thread off topic even more, so please just report posts you think are an issue and leave it at that.

I'd get a carbon monoxide alarm first if you haven't already before thinking it's due to the weather!

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19112-storm-comma2100/ zooming out , ignore the colours, the interesting bit is the curl at the back edge of the 'blue', called a comma cloud that shape signals deepening and things getting going - cyclogenesis and we're waiting for explosive cyclogenesis

Oh here we go, the "southern bias" nonsense again... Firstly, the majority of the population live in the south, the SE is very densely populated. Secondly, the south don't get many storms like this, Scotland for example is more prepared for this, and more sparsely populated. Really is pathetic what people throw their toys out of the pram for. Anyway, batten down the hatches, tonight is going to be fun

I've got four candles

*Amber Warning issued by the Met Office in conjunction with Netweather.tv* Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45 Valid from - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45 Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00 Outbreaks of verbal diarrhoea currently affecting parts of the thread are forecast to rapidly intensify during the forecasting period. Normal members are advised to take great care and the nesseccary precautions such as reporting all instances of verbal diarrhoea and not be sucked in by it. hint hint! just posted in the storm thread by aj

That's not what is being said yet. Warnings/Watches are given well ahead, yet the most crucial warnings (like MO red) are given nearer the time to avoid real life problems, egg on faces is hardly a worry when public perception in some places lives on that. The warnings so far have been valid and backed up by run after run. The fine details come out from lunchtime onwards. Damp squib seems unliekly

any chance we could wait and see what actually happens before tearing the MetO to pieces?

Well having just moved from Grampian to SE SCotland and being the STV presenter this week, I'm not really the person you need to point that out to. I am however bothered about tonight's forecast

Sky News have cameras and reporters down in Eastbourne. I will be very disappointed if we don't see Robin ( Coast ) zipping past with the top down on his convertible Saab at some point.

Latest UKMO I think will be the finishing line for this low- somewhere close to between 970- 975 MB http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php NAE 12z http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=18&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= We have gone from a storm that was being compared to the great storm of 1987 (which was 956 MB) to a system that is at the very top end of the norm- IE 70 mph + gusts to exposed southern coastal areas. We should be thankful that its downgraded & not progged to be deeper- I don't think there is any point moaning at the MET office- they have always presented the information in a professional way, its the tabloids that are the culprits! anyway hang on to your hats its going to be bad for the next 24 hours- but not as bad as initially thought! S

God bless that poor boy in newhaven. Praying they find him soon xx

12z UKMO, GFS and ECM in agreement with exiting the low into the N Sea around the Wash by 06z Monday, so we are looking at the worst of the winds between 00z and 06z. I think we are looking at winds of 70mph+ along the south coast, gusts 55-65mph inland, though a tight gradient in the isobars is indicated on the SW flank of the low as it exits into the N Sea, so perhaps gusts touching 70mph across E Anglia and SE England 05-06z. These winds aren't as much as the 80-90mph predicted earlier. So this storm is not looking quite as bad as it could have been for the UK. This appears to mainly down to the phasing with the jet, the low doesn't really undego Rapid Cyclogensis (RACY) until its east of the UK over the North Sea. Mid-latitude temperate cyclones tend to undergo RACY when they move to the cold or polar side of the jet stream - which looks to occur east of the UK. Currently the low is just south of the jet stream. The WV imagery from earlier (18z) clearly shows the dark/dry slot which is the jet running from the southwest up across S Ireland and Wales, the mass of cloud or baroclinic leaf hiding the developing low in the warm moist airmass. The slp/ jet stream chart for 18z below shows the wave low just south of the jet max core of winds: However, by the time the low reaches Scandinavian west coasts around 15z Monday, its undergoing RACY, as the low has moved on the cold polar side of the jet and is also under the developmental left exit. So spare a though for those in Denmark and S Sweden who could be looking at much stronger gusts tomorrow PM. We've perhaps dodged a bullet this time, simply because the low undergoes RACY after leaving the UK. But it will still be very windy and wild tonight/early Monday across southern Britain, with 60-70mph gusts not to be sniffed at. Rain is already looking like to be an issue looking at the radar, 20-30mm possible widely and alot more over high ground.

Hi folks, been away from the forums for a while, but I couldn't let this developing storm pass without chiming in! First, well done to the models for picking up on this LP so far in advance. The media is clearly in quite a frenzy over this one. One thing I've learned over many years is that such a hugely anticipated weather event rarely pans out as predicted. Having said that, let's look at where we are now. A closed low has formed in the last couple of hours in the SW approaches and looking at the steering flow, the predicted path looks pretty likely - across the Midlands. Whilst I would agree that the gradient on the S and SE flank looks likely to be pretty tight, given the speed this system is moving, as evidenced by the IR satellite images, I am wondering if this low will actually have time to deepen as much as anticipated. Thus, maybe there won't be so much of a tight gradient, especially on the W edge, the "backlash", well at least until it gets to the E coast. The GFS model suggests as much on the 12Z run. Nevertheless, these beasties can be very tricky so I will not underestimate the threat! One thing resulting from the speed of the system is that at least the winds, however strong they become, will move away pretty fast. I shall be following the hourly analyses with interest until I get too tired! Stay safe everyone! OMM

This is what the current winds are doing around the West Country so far. This one is in Bristol; And this is on the A30 just outside Yeovil; And the winds are only going to worsen in these parts over the next 18 hours. Shows that even a modest wind gust can bring down trees in the south.

Remember the Met Office have a lot of high res, short term models that we don't have access too. Arpege, EURO4, MOGREPS, UKV, EUROSIP etc. If all these models are showing something alternative to what we have seen this morning then it sort of dilutes the signal from the few models we have access too, such as GFS, UKMO, ECM, NAE etc. That's why their forecast might differ slightly from what we would expect. And in this situation, I would take a Met Office forecast over most other web/forum based forecasts, if only for precautionary measures if nothing else.

Scotland gets more storms than the south - we get it.

Here's my step by step summary for each of the area's looking to get hit by the very strong winds, South West of England 9pm Sunday to 2am Monday The low moves over Wales giving very strong winds to the South West of England. The high res NMM model shows gusts between 60 to 70mph which is similar to what the Met Office say in the image below, Heavy rain will also move in from the South West bringing 6 to 12mm, South Central of England 11pm Sunday to 4am Monday The NMM model shows gusts along the coasts to reach over 75mph. The Met Office show the same thing as well. Below I've included two images in one that shows 12am and 3am on Monday for the gusts, Rainfall for Southern Wales, SW and S England between 6 and 10mm, South East of England 12am Monday to 7am Monday The NMM model shows strong gusts even for inland parts around 50 to 60mph. Coastal parts 68 to 72mph. The Met Office also go for gusts being strong inland some places will get over 50mph gusts and along the coasts nearing 70mph, The rain moves east giving 6 to 10mm, Eastern England 1am Monday to 8am Monday NMM Model shows 48 to 56mph gusts but the coasts could see a bit higher 60 to 70mph is possible. The Met Office agrees with these wind speeds, Flooding - For those concerned the image below shows what the NMM 24 hour rainfall totals are. Western Wales, SW England and NW England have high totals over 25mm, Just to add a wee note well done to the NAE model for catching onto the low center and track before the other models. NAE Yesterday vs the GFS, Today against the GFS, Stay safe overnight to all those in the path of the very strong winds.

Just wanting to re-post this as unfortunately we have had to stop some from posting due to ongoing disruptive posts. Thanks for all of the reports btw - really helps us to keep things running smoothly :-)

Can we PLEASE cut out the "forecasts are wrong, nothing's going to happen, this is all overhyped" one liners? Especially as the storm hasn't even properly made landfall yet!

I don't think there is an analogy needed, I doubt anyone is wishing for death, however I guess if something is bearing down on the UK most weather enthusiasts want to see the 'spectacle' of what the weather can bring, so whilst no one wishes death & destruction, the UK is located in a place where these events present themselves whether we like it or not... S

Hope I'm ok adding this, but am I right in thinking that the curvy bit in front of my arrow is our trouble maker?

That's some lie in

Lol - why would you use that! No need to go anywhere since you're already on netweather... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

It's now hammering it down in North Pembs Local convenience store (10 metres away) open until 10pm, could be a late visit, a bar or 2 of some dark chocolate and some home brew espresso to accompany. About to have Boeuf Bourg, mash and garlic fried courgettes. I always find that when a storm is coming you need a decent retro 70s dinner party special. Black forest gateau anyone?! AS

All done

A whole raft of posts now deleted....some of you really don't understand simple requests....please keep it on topic, i.e non-trolling posts about the thread title....leave your conspiracy theories, hoax theories and subsequent reactions where they belong....in your own mind....thanks!

All the senior forecasters are REALLY busy

Even if this storm doesn't turn out to be as bad as projected, at least the warnings gave me the impetus to tidy up the garden. It's looking better out there than it did all summer:)

Im really getting miffed at all these people coming on here throwing their toys around and moaning at weather experts. lighten up and enjoy the model watching/discussions.

I'm sure I and all forecasters wish we had your foresight young man, warnings are issued at set times so best you try to be patient for another hour or so.

cor im knackered this model malarkie is hard work who gets a feeling snow predictions are going to be fun this year

Ok guys this is serious now, a garden chair just fell over RIGHT OUTSIDE my house.

It hasn't even formed yet!! Good grief...

Thoughts with young lad and family I did lots of silly things as a kid , kids don't think like we do

Horrific scenes across Essex as the storm arrives earlier than forecasted !!!!

It makes that lifeboat look like a toy in a bath tub! Those boats are big if you have ever stood by one! I know a couple of people who volunteer for the RNLI and those guys have simply unbelievable bravery! Hats off to them, I certainly couldn't do it.

I have to say, this is the most exhilarating thread I have ever encountered on here, pure manic, pure action, I love threads with flow to them but that also include technical expertise, obviously weather wise not as good as heavy disruptive snow, I just hope we have an 'upcoming severe winter weather' thread with this many posts in January or Feb because we will have done good, this storm is going to be quite severe but not an absolute stonker anymore I don't think.

It is a difficult call, early night or early morning? Although I think it might be tricky to go to sleep early. I'd really like to hear the wind this time as I managed to sleep through 1987 - not the whole year obviously - just the storm:)

I once heard that clifftops were always treacherous...

The key issue is how models are trending to reduction in upstream jet. This has been critical component of explosive deepening. NAE and EURO4 picked up on this possibility yesterday AM and importantly, latest UKMO-GM also less developmental. So next assessment of 06z NAE v important.