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Spent the afternoon picking our own at Garsons Farm - squashes and apples the food of choice this afternoon - and then picked our own blackberries for free on Esher Common at Black Pond. Our efforts ended in delicious apple and blackberry crumble; squash is reserved for pasta bake tomorrow. We seemed to start losing the light in the woods by 5.30 under grey skies although it was notably humid; the trees were predominantly green with some orange leaves starting to line the edges of paths. I'm kind of wishing if we're stuck with grey all the time, the temperature could at least do a bit of autumn to match, as I feel a desire to wrap up a bit, don the boots and scarves etc. No doubt I'll rue the sentiment soon! Anyway, some autumn-ish pics:

It doesn't matter what any of the seasonal models show as there is a very reasonable chance that none of them will be right anyway! Mild, south westerly Atlantic based low there mate.

I was only 13 years of age then and even I, as a snow and cold lover, got fed up with it. No central heating, outside loo frozen numerous times, side roads like skating rinks for 3 months. Not sure we would cope if we had another prolonged winter like that, the strain on energy supplies and the transport system would be far greater now. Anyway back to March 2013 here is a selection of pics taken around Eryrys in North Wales on 24th March. It's about 350m ASL. Have included a Google Earth image of Eryrys without the snow. Enjoy

Nice update. All 3 winter months showing a potential -NAO once again DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY That's a cold easterly wind with a modest pressure rise around Iceland and potential frontal snow. You can see an LP centre over N France (denoted by low geopotential heights and thicknesses) - winds flow anti clockwise around LP so thus we have an easterly flow shown across the UK.

Disappointed to see the BBC talking about 'mild' this week rather than 'warm'. For me, mild should be for November onwards. Anyway, obviously early days for looking at winter prospects but I feel that we could see northerlies and Northern blocking in November and December.

Thanks ReefLeft home about 11 am, walked a total of 11.5 miles, gained and lost a lot of height tramping around the North Downs, got the little local train back from Dorking. A fantastic outing - my youngest, who's 10, most enjoyed the time when a horse chestnut tree started raining perfect conkers as the wind blew, luckily we managed to avoid getting hit. He brought 11 home, so the number 11 featured a lot on the walk, though I did only have 1 (not 11) bacon roll at the top of Box Hill (which was a bit too busy for my liking). We at one point walked through Denbies wine estate on the permissive paths and it felt like rural France, chalk landscape and vines stretching in all directions. We had sunshine for quite a lot of the walk as well, which we weren't really expecting, it was a beautiful early Autumn day in the end, though the cloud filled in from about 4pm.Must do this more often. Dog is crashed out. Son isn't. I'm aching a bit, from 5 squash games in 7 days and today's walk, but feel I have earned a beer tonight!AS

Have you actually posted any charts showing the opposite in the last few weeks Gavin? There have been just as many showing cold...... the usual mix. You do come across as a bit of a WUM I am afraid to say.

why gavin? that just means colder. the pressure anomaly charts are going for HP over greenland anyway, for those on a wind-up or whatever, what anyone "thinks" at this stage is irrelevant

Morning all Grey and breezy in Reigate, 13.3c, darker looking towards the south. Considering a long walk today with youngest child, possibly middle child (definitely not eldest, no chance of him agreeing to that!) and dog, maybe a 6 hour special across the North Downs but done so we can not use the car at all. Already made a spag bol which is slowly bubbling in the oven ready to be warmed up this evening when we return. Now, do I quickly rustle up a blackberry and apple crumble before we leave? Plenty of calories in that lot so a long walk will definitely be needed! Have a good day all AS

Captain, that would be fab. Snow on bonfire night. I don't recall ever seeing it

Not you too! Flippin supermarkets and shops are bombarding us with Christmas already.

Mother nature has a great pair of scales... She will balance things out.

Hurricane Season 2013: Year Without a Major Hurricane? The other seasons since 1960 with no major hurricanes were 1986, 1972 and 1968. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-2013-major-hurricanes-20130926 now who remembers january 1987 too early to call re hurricanes but you never know

tomorrow a breezy south-south easterly flow temps around 16-18 degrees sunny intervals looks more likely but a chance the west of london may pick up the odd shower during the day tuesday still a breezy south east flow temps look like around 16 south of london around 13-14 north of the region looks dry but the odd shower on the south coast expect cloudcover an issue here especially tod area wednesday a strong south to south easterly looks dry am then heavy rain moving in effecting most areas around 2 onwards tod area possibly staying dry most of the day temps around 16 degrees by tagged by the wind will feel chilly when the rain arrives more later john

(1) Ever heard of hysteresis? Oceans soaking up heat and giving it back later comes to mind. This comment relies that all factors are well mixed over the period in question - in this case year to year. Why does the sun's energy (or indeed any other natural factor) have to synchronise with the dataset but CO2 electromagnetic energy of the same wavelengths is somehow different in that, specially, that form of energy, which is indistinguishable from any other form of energy, is capable of capacitance in our oceans. You can post anomalies of -0.5C for 60 years into the future, and still show 'slow warming' (2) I didn't say it was your view; but nevertheless it is ingrained, given that 'normal' climate is a reference period in the past presumably a stable period without warming or cooling, excepting natural variation.We say that the atmosphere has warmed compared to that period; the implication is clear - the reference period is normal, we're currently posting high anomalies against that period that is abnormal; therefore the reference period is 'better' since it is 'normal'

Considering the IPCC rely so much on the assumed positive radiative effect from clouds in terms of interaction with CO2/GHG's to verify up to two thirds of the predicted warming over the mutli decades to come, and they repeat yet again the uncertainty about cloud feedbacks (same as last report) how do they still manage to upgrade their 'probablity' rating of AGW forcing being at work to 95%? They say that cloud feedbacks are 'likely' to be positive...so what percentage do we put on 'likely' then. It sure is no where near 95%. to start to reflect and underpin justification for such confidence. And who knows, the percentage of negative feedbacks from clouds could be underestimated as well In all seriousness, I think they had to upgrade the probablity rating further on AGW consensus probability to maintain the momentum of the panel integrity and credibility. So much has already been put at stake there was really no option. I also very much agree with the hypothesis put forward by snowking about the 15 years pause and the IPCC dismissal of it as, essentially, inconsequential. This raises the stakes highly with so much increasing evidence growing to suggest that solar cyclical activity is being constantly under estimated. At the same time therefore the IPCC have raised the stakes extremely high for themselves with this latest updated report. Essentially the uncertainties of the report into the larger areas of where positive feedbacks are being assumed are still the same, and they are under higher threat from being cancelled out by greater negative natural variation since the last report was produced -yet they have upgraded their own confidence in their forecasts against a background of the start of their forecast period already looking far too bullish *that reads verging on incorrect* How much of this forecast probability exercise as a banner header flyer for the IPCC simply just a cosmetic outer operation to satisfy political stakes and agendas?

Quite a turnaround from the GFS ens over the last 24 hours, completely ditching any real cooler spell and going for this Euro high type set up. Also worth noticing the latest CFS anomalies during October show blocking again to the north east being rather persistent until pretty much the latter third of the month. Also worth noting that the Atlantic region again looks very quiet especially considering we would normally be experiencing zonal patterns by now. The one good thing about this spell is that colder waters around the Iceland region are slowly but surely being displaced by warmer water moving up from the south (in fact the SSTs off the west coast of the UK are above average), if we get warmer than average SSTs up into the far north of the Atlantic, it might help in developing positive pressure anomalies further down the line. Here is the CFS anomaly charts for October Whilst everyone is going on about January/February 2014, I think people need to watch this coming November as I feel it might pull a March of this year and produce some very unexpected results

A lack of political activism, it would seem, is closer to becoming one with calls for ecocide to become an international crime rapidly growing since the 1970s. This is some middle class concept developed completely under the basis that we, the rich, have gone through our industrial revolution, we like our place at the top (thank you very much) and emerging nations, amongst the biggest polluters, can and should be kept down in their poverty, by preventing them exploiting the natural resources in the same way that the rich countries have already.

The op really isn't back up by the ensembles though which show a pretty strong Euro high signal again suggesting the winds will be south of west throughout. That tropical system needs watching as we know what the last one did with our weather patterns. FI in the GFS op looked pretty ridiculous considering that low decided to go in reverse immediately when low resolution kicked in.

Just trying out my new profile pic; used a programme called Irfan to reduce picture size and even with my very dodgy technical skills I managed to do it. It's a pic of me and my son at the beach pre-snorkel in Cyprus. Cloud clearing now to give some nice sunshine with a bit of a breeze. Must finish off last night's pizza and then hit the big outdoors for some fresh air.

Morning all * Peeps out from under the covers * It is still morning isn't it ? Looks really nice out there so deffo an outside day with lots of much needed fresh air - have a good one folks

Latest from Gibby Good morning folks. Here is this mornings look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday September 29th 2013. The General Situation. The UK is currently covered by a ESE flow between Low pressure to the SW and High to the NE. The effects of the Low to the SW will be limited today with most areas having a fine, breezy and rather warm day with some sunshine at times. Through the next 24 hours a new push of unstable air will move up to affect the South and west with thundery showers tomorrow while other areas continue the breezy and bright weather with some warm sunshine. By Tuesday and Wednesday Low pressure will be edging further North and East up the Western flank of the British Isles pulling winds round to a more Southerly point as well as bringing all of the UK at risk of showers or longer spells of rain with only short drier spells. By the latter stages of the week the Low will be to the NW of Britain and all areas will see winds swing into a cooler SW direction with a much more maritime influence but still carrying rain and showers East to all areas at times right up to the weekend before a slow change to drier and brighter conditions begin to affect the South and East as a brief High pressure ridge looks like grazing Southern Britain as it moves NE. GFS then maintains a very changeable second week but never too cold anywhere. Further low pressure moves across the North of the UK at times sufficiently far enough South to put the whole of the UK at risk of rain at times with some brighter and drier spells in between. Temperatures would be relatively close to the seasonal average and it would probably be rather windy at times especially towards the North and West. UKMO shows it's final day chart with the UK under a showery Westerly or WSW flow with sunshine mixed with showers passing through in the breeze. Average temperatures would be likely next weekend so it probably wouldn't feel too cold in any sunshine and away from the cloud and showers which would be heaviest by then in the North and West. GEM shows a more meaningful push of high pressure up across the South of the UK next weekend from the SW while the North stays a little more changeable with some further rain at times. After a dry and fine few days in the South the High is shown to give way to renewed Low pressure from off the Atlantic with rain and showers in average temperatures extending to all areas by the middle of Week 2. NAVGEM has High pressure having built over France next weekend but probably insufficiently close to put the whole of the UK under fine weather. Instead a rather cloudy SW flow would likely to have developed with mostly dry conditions in the South and SE while all Northern and Western areas would most likely become cloudy and breezy with rain and drizzle at times. It would be relatively mild though. ECM also shows a short improvement for the South next weekend before all areas join in again with a strong Low pressure influence to the West and NW of Britain with mostly mild South or SW winds carrying bands of potentially quite heavy rain and showers North and East across all areas at times with the North and West seeing the worst conditions. The GFS Ensembles paint a slowly cooling picture through this coming week to average temperatures which are then largely maintained through Week 2. After the potentially thundery rain at times through the coming week a reduction in rainfall is likely through Week 2 especially in the South at least for a time. The Jet Stream's main arm is currently blowing to the South of the UK at the moment in association with the Low to the SW. As that moves North through the coming week so does the Jet flow. Although it's position varies between the members it's most favoured option appears to be a Easterly moving flow close to the British Isles through week 2. In Summary Week 1 looks fairly agreed upon by most members from all models that the gradual transformation of Low to the SW to Low to the NW will take all week to complete. As this occurs all areas will be susceptible to periods of rain and showers, heavy at times perhaps with thunder, mostly in the SW at first but anywhere from Tuesday. It looks reasonably likely that a brief ridge of high pressure could affect the South for a time next weekend but in general it looks like it may be quite short-lived as there is reasonable support for more changeable weather to develop through Week 2 but it would never be desperately cold with any frost and fog risk very low at this stage. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

They are a mythical group of people who have decided that GhGs can't possibly exist, oil will last forever and that a large metropolis is no more damaging than a beaver's dam. GW seems to have missed the swing in the debate in that climate sensitivity and subsequent parameter attribution is really the only argument on the table. GW's argument is sophisticated - and it takes quite some work to trawl through - given writing style and and penchant for long words. It's keeping to the party line, but, ultimately, this position, as fed on fuel by the Green lobby, is a strawman. For sure there must be fervent deniers in the same way there must be fervent doom-mongers, by reason of the Gaussian distribution, but, really, you won't find either sort hanging around for too long on here.

:lol: I'm sure that more seasonal weather has returned this year and I'm really hoping a traditional Winter is in store. At least most guesses are this side of 2014!

I think a clearer picture is emerging on where we go from here and deeper into autumn, I reckon the north and west of the uk will become generally unsettled and stay that way, in contrast, the south and east will become briefly unsettled through next week before joining most of mainland europe in a return to benign and pleasantly warm weather which has already been a significant feature so far this autumn but I expect fog to become more of a problem as time goes on. This doesn't mean the south and east would miss all the unsettled weather but it would be least affected overall.

wednesday a fairly strong south east flow temps around 20 degrees rainfall light showers am leading to some heavy possibly thundery showers late pm thursday a strong south east wind showers around and some heavy temps could get to around 20-22 degrees a long way off and all subject to change etc etc

Just a sprinkling here... And yes the dog was having a $hit.

Brings back great memories John. Below one of the synoptic charts of a lifetime, for our area. Was my wallpaper for many years.

Hi john, January '87 was epic! I was living almost in the Countryside at the time. 5 foot of snow. Night time temps going down to below minus 20. Electric and phone cut off for 3 days. When the roads were cleared, there were 10ft drifts at the sides of the road. Like driving through a tunnel made of snow. My daughter was only 7 weeks old and I needed the doctor. It took him 4 hours to walk to my house bless him. Amazing Hi KCZ, Well if it's been disbanded then I'm the only one left. Unique, that's me

fi in gfs that would blow the cobwebs away it would also change our pattern as that would be bye bye azores high for a while at least all fi at present so may be all tosh it was something interesting to post at least though

High pressure is back on ECM later this week in turn low pressure builds over Greenland UKMO at t144 also showing a big euro high developing

Hello fellow friends! I have really enjoyed myself today along with the weather. This morning, (after a little lay in), I tided up the garden. Emptying pots, cleaning the patio, putting umbrellas and such like away and sorting the greenhouse out. For some reason I found this quite rewarding!! After lunch it was for a walk in the woods to "gather" some blackberries with the family....and I have now just eaten a lovely roast followed by (need I say) some blackberry and apple crumble with "blobby" cream.........yumm!!

I wonder if the ECM might go back to it's outputs of yesterday GFS ensembles look more bullish than the op about a pressure rise in a weeks time In fact going for a more Scandi/Euro block which would at least offer a south or even south easterly flow which provides better prospects than a long draw south westerly, sunnier and perhaps warmer by day.

While JC presents one point of view, I think the other couple of hundred or so scientists involved in the latest IPCC report's views are more worthwhile. They are, at least, peer reviewed and not an opinion blog.

The CFSv2 also looks to be going for a mild, wet winter. Starting to feel a depression coming on :—( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

Yep GFS ens keeps a big high over eastern Europe as a result the UK remains fairly mild with at uppers no lower than +5 covering most of England and Wales to at least mid October with mild / warm south westerly winds

No it isn't. There is a clear belief that it used to better in 'the good old days' My contention is that 'the good old days' never existed with reference to climate and by extension, the environment, regardless that it might be a romantic and attractive notion.

"Better" is a matter of opinion. It is not quantifiable, nor subject to the scientific method, and is subject to socio-political views that are particularly a function of the time in which such views are espoused. Is this where we pretend that there used to be some Eden where everything was in equilibrium, sunsets were brighter, trees were greener, oceans were a shade of deeper blue, and "The Good Life" is the better ideal?

SI, I'm guessing by "convicted" you mean acquitted, yeh? Simple mistake... But I'm sure that matters more than the deaths, illnesses,environmental destruction, costly wars, etc, resulting from fossil fuel use... Scientists are not deciding policy, only providing information in order to inform policy, so I don't agree with it being a case of one or the other. Science doesn't claim what's right and wrong. In predictions, it lays out the evidence and methodology and predicts what may happen. It then will state, based on the evidence once more, what needs to be done to avert certain scenarios. It's the people that make their judgements after that. What is right and wrong, what's is or isn't of benefit to humanity, what's worth acting on and what's not worth acting on, is all going to be interpreted differently, based on the persons inherent values, level of knowledge and ability for critical analysis. That's where I see the problem at least. Climate science, to me, provides additional data to help make better decisions for our future, as any good science should. Nowadays we have organisations and individuals paid to espouse an anti-scientific/pseudo-scientific viewpoint in order to maintain the status quo, and thus the wealth and power of certain industries. This has resulted in certain scientists having to speak out and engage in the public in order to both defend themselves and to try and clear up some of the disinformation that now continually rains down. I don't think that necessarily impacts on the scientific evidence regarding climate change. These scientists and the odd scientist/campaigner, when conducting research, still have to go through the same conditions, the same standards, the same peer review as anyone else. While not perfect, this helps to largely filter out the bias of the individual. It's the result of the research that is the scientific contribution to policy makers, not individual opinions.

This confuses me - what does it mean 'likely continued'? Did we not sink a few thousand thermometers and actually measure it? If we didn't I assume we sunk a few and then extrapolated regional conditions to a global result. Which, as we are often told in a cold UK winter, is something we shouldn't be doing.

He's qualified and his research mattered enough to him that he tries to do something about it. Very, very different to Monkton

Yep, trust the government members to think ahead. Short term political gains takes precedence over scientific and economic evidence as always, with nothing more than a made up story as its basis. Perhaps if the money spent on invading foreign countries for their oil and mineral deposits was spent on renewables we'd already be over the cost of transition to a green economy. The more CO2 we emit (taking into account that we don't consider the climate cost or the pollution from our fossil fuel extraction and use when pricing fossil fuels) the more costly it will be for society in general. It will be the ordinary person on the street paying for the adaptation and health costs. But at least their electricity bill will be a few pounds cheaper.

Everyone round to AS's house for a fab sounding meal this evening, we all really appreciate it, 6ish OK? When we rehomed a little french bulldog knowing nothing about the breed, we had to learn that they can only do short walks which may suit suburban lifestyles, but I do wish we could take him out for lengthy adventures in the way you describe. Have a lovely day.

Thanks Steve and hoping your 'haziness' is clearing:/ I thought it was my work computer messing around after being 'reimaged' but it's the same on my home computer - both windows 7 (you have my sympathies with windows . Today's target is reducing down my new chosen pic - it will be quite obviouw whether or not I am successful! Grey again this morning with a light wind, sun just trying to peep through. Edit - that chap with the sunglasses and bubble gum is what you get when you put 8 followed by a bracket!

comparison of today in previous years latest- 2012 2011 2010 2009 potential for further significant snowfall through the start of october- http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?hr=6&over=pressure&symbols=none&type=prec

The Ecm 00z operational run shows no end in sight to the very mild / rather warm weather with winds of variable strength generally sourced from either southern europe or the azores during the next 10 days, a nw/se split as the jet becomes aligned sw/ne with the most unsettled weather gradually becoming focused further west & north with the south and east having the best of the dry, warm and sunny weather, especially the southeast being closest to continental high pressure where it would be very warm for the time of year at times, even at T+240 hours, the thickness chart shows a warm plume covering the whole of the uk.

Sheffield is rather snowy, especially the western part of the city at an elevated position. The A57 road is often blocked by snow in Winter from Sheffield all the way to Glossop.

Evening all. A drab day weather wise here. After the mid afternoon showers finished, I took my eldest son to the park, with some nuts, to feed the squirrels.... We had a great time, and got some close up pics on my phone... Sorry they are sideways, posted from my phone....

Feb 86, my 21st on the 9th remember the month well Big snow fight on my birthday out in the street.

I think I may have just stumbled upon the perfect venue for the regional meet up .... http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/shed-clouds-hangs-side-mountain-2310786 I know how some of you like sheds, I'm not sure we would all fit in though and it's certainly not for the faint hearted