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Showing content with the highest reputation on 30/07/13 in all areas

  1. Yes, upper flow looking very sluggish and meridional across the Atlantic on the ECM and GFS as we head into early August and it seems the models are backing away from introducing a more progressive and zonal flow across NW Europe. For once, the UK is ending up on the warm side of the slow-moving amplified trough which seems intent on hanging out just west and NW of the UK. A strong block stretching from the central Med up across central Europe seems to be helping keep back cooler conditions from regaining control across the UK, so unless a strong jet powers up across the Atlantic, it seems we will continue to see more plumes of heat moving up from the continent over the coming 7 days and perhaps beyond. With it, a continued risk of storms at times too, as colder air moves in aloft from the west at times above the very warm and humid air.
    14 points
  2. So after a couple of days of temps around 30C at the end of the week. They drop to 25C at the weekend before increasing to 28C on Monday, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png So far this summer is turning into a winter equivalent of a bitter NE,ly. What I mean by this is exciting weather.
    9 points
  3. yet another top post Sir,really enjoy your input Frosty..
    8 points
  4. Thursday will be a lovely hot & sultry day for england and wales with temperatures in the mid to high 20's to low 30's celsius and it will be a mainly sunny day for many, nothing like as good for scotland and ireland with more clouds and some rain with temperatures closer to average. Friday still looks hot & humid for the far east/southeast with a sunny morning and then a risk heavy thundery showers breaking out and spreading east on a slow moving cold front which should clear the east coast into the north sea by friday night with relatively cooler and fresher air pushing the hot airmass away, the weekend looks best towards the southeast with pressure rising and mainly dry with warm sunny spells and temperatures around 24-25 celsius, rather less warm further northwest with breezy and showery weather but still with sunny spells, high pressure then settling the weather down for a few days with sunny periods and light winds with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius but the synoptics then become rather slack with the high pressure draining away and a growing risk of showers mixed with the sunny periods but remaining on the warm side of average, the ecm then shows a brief atlantic ridge followed by a deepening depression but to be honest, it's too far ahead to know whether the pattern will flatten out, we could still be looking forward to more hot plumes and a benign atlantic for the first half of august, the jury is out and the verdict won't be known for a little while yet, enjoy the mini hot spell later in the week, spare a thought for scotland and ireland as they will miss out.
    8 points
  5. Very interesting fax charts here, nice to see the 564 dam line chasing the active warm front northwards as it eventually reaches northern scotland, between the warm front and the cold front linking back to the west, it will be turning hot and sultry, it will actually be turning warmer and more humid across the south tomorrow but with misty low cloud and bits of drizzle although it should brighten up through tomorrow afternoon, however, at the same time, a band of heavy rain will be pushing north across northern england and eventually up into scotland.Thursday looks increasingly sunny and hot in the south, this hot and sunny weather pushing further and further north throughout thursday, temperatures up to 27-28c across northern england, nearer 29-30c for the midlands and 30-33c as high as 91 F for the southeast, friday looks very interesting with a cold front slowly pushing east, it makes quicker progress east across scotland but becomes very slow moving across england, as it bumps into the hot/sultry airmass. I expect severe thunderstorms to develop on friday across the southeast & east anglia but there could also be some storms further north as the cold front clears through, it looks like a wave forms along the front across the southeast on friday evening and overnight which causes the front to stall for a time and intensify as it mixes with the additional continental heat pumping up from the south, a risk of flooding in some parts of the southeast on friday night is possible with the intense thunderstorms, by saturday, the active cold front should have cleared out into the north sea and heading into the low countries taking the heat and high humidity away with it but the southeast will probably have the driest and sunniest weather on saturday and warm enough at 24-25 celsius, further to the north and west it looks breezier, cooler and more showery, the showery troughs lining up as bands of heavy rain but with sunny spells inbetween, a more settled spell should follow as pressure rises from the south later in the weekend and into the early part of next week.
    8 points
  6. Once again some folk are looking too closely at specifics at the surface way ahead. Instead of that watch the two models out to T+240 and how they both shift the upper trough from a position west of the UK and pulling in air from a warm even hot source to something quite different. See below, on the free version http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess= This ties in pretty well with the overall idea from the anomaly charts that the upper trough is going to move east. I think that the NOAA version, link below and the ECMWF-GFS link below that, will be the nearest of the 3 outputs in the 6-12 day time scale. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Notice also the wave length of the major troughs, roughly 70-80 degrees between the 3. A 3 trough system with this spacing is often very slow to alter significantly in terms of the major wavelength pattern. Another factor to support this is that the MJO is in a very low orbit, forget what phase it does not matter, and the prediction I use shows no change in amplitude although the phase is indicated to change. This suggests that there is nothing in the tropical set up to make for any marked change in the disturbed temperate latitudes which is where we sit alongside much of Europe. Again there seems nothing looking at the upper air charts in the Tropics/Caribbean area to suggest any major tropical storm development in the next few days. Putting all this together and I would go for the upper air pattern much as NOAA 8-14 shows. Of course the weather may make a fool of me yet again but it is to me the form horse over the past few days for the early part of August possibly the first 10 days or so. Dropping this into the other area, technical although the content is not really technical-just sometimes easier to find.
    7 points
  7. it matters not if thursday/friday are a hot blip, IF in the bigger picture something hot and more prolonged is likely to evolve...and theres a damn good chance of that happening!
    7 points
  8. Pretty good mean for next monday For balance the ensemble gives a definite movement of low pressure from the South Mean is pushing 16C again in the south east People are commenting on the UKMO, yet again I must stress what I've said this morning about it's recent performance. It's eastward bias has put the GFS to shame
    6 points
  9. First there is a heatwave, then there is no heatwave, then there is? Donovan...
    5 points
  10. Surely the point is that temperatures of twenty three or so are extremely pleasant and will feel warm in the sunshine; average or slightly above in august are pleasant conditions.
    5 points
  11. It seems to me there will be more high pressure about but it doesn't look anywhere near as robust and 'clean' as it did earlier in the month. They are troughs and little lows often circling about in the charts I've been seeing. And the models have never shown a persistent spell of anticyclonic weather with the GFS FI and the anomaly maps being consistent in showing a fairly zonal flow into the middle part of August. Of course plenty of uncertainty looking this far out but that seems the most likely to me given the consistency. A pressure and temperature rise for a few days, with rain, probably mainly convective, at times, before a transition to more active westerly weather. NAEFS has been consistent in showing LP anomalies into middle August for a while now. ECM ensemble mean at +240 shows the more westerly regime also
    5 points
  12. Once again some folk are looking too closely at specifics at the surface way ahead. That is referring back to the model thread where this is also posted. Instead of that watch the two models out to T+240 and how they both shift the upper trough from a position west of the UK and pulling in air from a warm even hot source to something quite different. See below, on the free version http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess= This ties in pretty well with the overall idea from the anomaly charts that the upper trough is going to move east. I think that the NOAA version, link below and the ECMWF-GFS link below that, will be the nearest of the 3 outputs in the 6-12 day time scale. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Notice also the wave length of the major troughs, roughly 70-80 degrees between the 3. A 3 trough system with this spacing is often very slow to alter significantly in terms of the major wavelength pattern. Another factor to support this is that the MJO is in a very low orbit, forget what phase it does not matter, and the prediction I use shows no change in amplitude although the phase is indicated to change. This suggests that there is nothing in the tropical set up to make for any marked change in the disturbed temperature latitudes which is where we sit alongside much of Europe. Again there seems nothing looking at the upper air charts in the Tropics/Caribbean area to suggest any major tropical storm development in the next few days. Putting all this together and I would go for the upper air pattern much as NOAA 8-14 shows. Of course the weather may make a fool of me yet again but it is to me the form horse over the past few days for the early part of August possibly the first 10 days or so. Dropping this into the other area, technical although the content is not really technical-just sometimes easier to find.
    4 points
  13. Well, when considering the fact that no-one can accurately predict the weather, of course there's doubt as to any long-term heatwave developing...But then, we all know that? Who knows!
    4 points
  14. Excellent GFS 06z. Plume Thurs-Fri followed by Storms. Then hotting up again Mon / Tues followed by more storms! 2 hot days and a thunderstorm is a British summer.. This year we are being spoilt!
    4 points
  15. The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good to me, a hot sultry plume thurs/fri and risk of storms on friday which may linger in the far east/se into saturday, then becoming fresher & fine and remaining on the warm side with high pressure developing, so a few fine days later in the weekend and into next week, then pressure falls a bit and the pressure pattern looks very sluggish next week, the atlantic looks benign so next week would probably be warm and showery with sunny periods and light winds, some of the showers becoming heavy, thundery and slow moving with humidity levels rising again, especially across the south, seeing the atlantic so quiet is good news as our temperatures should continue at least slightly above average and generally rather warm or very warm.
    4 points
  16. Thought I would compare the mean from both GFS and ECM at day 7 GFS ECM Both are trying to show something similar, but the ECM is certainly more progressive with the pattern and forcing a weak trough north and re-establishing a westerly flow. Both models show a warm up at the start of next week, especially in the south. Frankly I've seen complete support for a full on zonal attack at day 10, only for it to be completely wrong. At this present moment I can't see the ECM verifying, there isn't any real driver for such a power up of the jet stream to the point where autumnal lows are being chucked at us. MJO, tropical developments show pretty much nought at the moment.
    3 points
  17. Very true if you are sat in Cambridgeshire, or many other parts of E England. However if you were sat in Belfast or Glasgow for instance your post would read 'So after a couple of days of temps around 20C at the end of the week, they drop to 18C at the weekend before increasing to 21C on Monday. I hate the term IMBY, but things do look very different to many members who are not sat where you are.
    3 points
  18. no sure thing, esp if you look at the ukmo at 144
    3 points
  19. Amusing some belittling the brevity of the heat when it has been warm to hot for over 3 weeks!
    3 points
  20. Of course, but I think that as long as it doesn't take over the thread, a post or 2 on the southern hemisphere should be ok. I'd say a new version of this thread will be started soon anyway!
    3 points
  21. 2 very obvious plums on the London ensemble this afternoon one this Thursday and Friday the 2nd mid next week Elsewhere we have above or average uppers taking us to mid August
    3 points
  22. Replace Thursday and Friday with August and September and I'll be happy
    3 points
  23. In the short term, the Ecm 00z op run has upgraded the hot plume for friday over a wider area with a thundery breakdown then pressure rises during the weekend and although the heat and humidity levels drop, it stays warm and becomes more settled for a time into next week but then a risk of slow moving, heavy and thundery showers within a very sluggish slack pattern for most of next week, only the far north flirts with cool north atlantic air from time to time, the south remains warm or very warm at times throughout.
    3 points
  24. Although it looks like it has been through a filter or Instagram, promise you it hasn't. Very lucky timing, this little beauty drifting east as the sun set catching the top of the Cu, brilliant contrast against the blue sky and heavier rain laden bottom layer of the cloud. Similar here regards to the sferics today, a couple of promising radar returns and showers, however aside from the lunchtime rumbles of thunder over Edinburgh little else.
    3 points
  25. I don't know why everyone is worried. The GFS is the only model showing a block to the North East. This means by default the world about to end with us flying around on pigs Sorry couldn't resist a winter joke. I'll shut up now
    2 points
  26. If the sea rises 2m it sounds like a problem but if it only rises 20 *.0023435669% it will only rise a piffling .04687134%. Problem solved
    2 points
  27. this gives the 500mb anomaly statistics for the northern hemisphere, just how well that correlates to Europe I have no idea. It does show GFS and UK Met very close but with GFS having had less ups and downs, if that is the right expression, as the chart shows. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html
    2 points
  28. I think both the UKMO and GFS 12 runs cast more that a smidgen of doubt on that Mushy. Stiil a lot more runs needed before the chance of another widespread hot spell imo, let alone a damn good chance.
    2 points
  29. aye, nowts certain, but only a few hours ago the atlantic was expected to dominate after thursdays mini heatwave, now all eyes are watching a potential bigger heatwave. the heats there, not far away, it wouldnt take much to bring it here and thats what the models are showing within a semi reliable timeframe. as i see it, the outlooks set between average - hot, cant be bad can it!
    2 points
  30. How about looking at all of the worlds ice sheets? Or even just all of Antarctica? http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183 We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.
    2 points
  31. 26C both Saturday and Sunday according to the GFS, pretty much perfect for me 30 degrees will be breached likely on Thursday and Friday with the potential for Tuesday onwards to repeat the same thing. Good stuff.
    2 points
  32. That chart's not bad at all, I think it can be confusing when you look at Meteociel's charts at times as the colours used for the 850 hPa temps make it look colder. Many areas would be in the low to mid 20s if that came off.
    2 points
  33. I think we're overdue a traditional unsettled stormy Autumn. We've had our overdue warm and sunny summer (so far) so it could be our turn this year. Of course it's never as simple as that, would be nice though. Seem to have had quite a lot of dry anticyclonic Autumns in recent years.
    2 points
  34. Don't like the look of that chart , bin it please lol
    2 points
  35. It will be nice to get 30C again - After 2 weeks of high temperatures, I was startting to actually get used to it and enjoy it. Is this thread just for August the 1st and 2nd? If not, then the GFS seems to want the heat to rebuild, and by the 6th, temperatures look widely in the low 30's
    2 points
  36. Not sure I agree entirely that the 500mb pattern is unsteady as you say (unless I'm reading you wrong) - certainly IMO in the 6-8 days ahead, the models and ens mean seem to agree on a sluggush trough/ridge pattern over the N Atlantic/Europe with a mean trough stalling out W and SW and strong blocking high re-establishing over central Med and central Europe. However, as has been the case for a while now, the models keep wanting to introduce a more mobile and zonal Atlantic regime beyond 8 days, yet the every run we get closer the zonal return seems to be put back to that range.
    2 points
  37. just to show how unsteady the 500mb anomaly outputs are at the moment, the output this morning from ECMWF-GFS http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html GFS does keep some suggestion of +ve height anomalies across the trough but ec has done away with that idea this morning. I would be very wary of suggesting anything is clear cut beyond 6-8 days at the moment. But as Nick F has posted there is no real sign of the Atlantic powering up to any extent. Any prediction with a slack flow at upper level is bound to switch about a bit and the precise position of the upper trough is of course vital in terms the flow being off the continent (=heat) or more oceanic (=less heat).
    2 points
  38. this chart shouldnt be taken out of context, until others agree and the patterns shown for several runs its not overly accurate, but it does show the first signes of something possibly hot and thundery IF im interpreting it correctly... which adds support for the ops , esp the gfs (which spotted the repeating plume pattern first), for a southerly/thundery pattern... oh it should be pretty warm/hot too at times, but atm theres no lengthy hot spell.
    2 points
  39. Well, what an EPIC summer this is turning into, and if these charts are anything to be believed, there will be a lot more hot weather in the coming weeks, hot plumes galore on the Gfs 12z, mouthwatering charts in FI, the Ecm 12z also has it's highlights with the uk flirting with some very hot weather further east which occasionally makes inroads into the east and southeast, it's a complex but slack pattern and there is no sign of the atlantic firing up just yet, most of our upcoming weather has a continental flavour to it, like a boomerang, the heat just keeps coming back and long may that continue for the rest of this summer. In the meantime, the next hot plume is incoming, a few hot and sultry days and nights incoming later this week, high 20's to low 30's celsius looks well within our reach on thursday & friday and a risk of storms, then by the weekend it looks like pressure will be rising and a nice warm anticyclonic spell developing into next week, and a chance of more hot plumes popping up next week and beyond, it's FANTASTIC.
    2 points
  40. I'm off to Cornwall for a week on saturday and getting a little bit more optimistic than i was a couple of days ago for my prospects. The rain today seems to have pushed a fair way past north of the M4 corridor which is where the extent of it was progged to be a couple of days ago as i recall. This to me indicates that the models are struggling a little bit with, and underplaying as a result, the northern extent of each push of warm air up from the south. I'm thinking that, if this is a trend, then the plume set for later this week will be more extensive than currently being modelled and make greater inroads....and likewise with a subsequent build of high pressure over the country. I might end up getting lucky with the warmth, sunny periods and a couple of thunderstorms thrown in to boot! That's my completely unbiased view of things anyway
    1 point
  41. My dog - border collie
    1 point
  42. When I left work at 6pm Dyce was still dry but there was a thunderstorm in progress just to the West. As I drove home to Kemnay I pretty much skirted the rear edge of it, but still hit some heavy rain between Blackburn & Kintore and saw the odd flash through the very dark clouds. There was a lot of surface water on the roads and when I got home the wife conformed that Kemnay had been under it and the electricity supply had been briefly interrupted at one point. 6yr old son was going on about it at dinner and even asked again this morning "is the lightning coming back today?". Not sure if he was scared, excited or just wanted to see mummy run around unplugging everything again. Does anyone else do that, unplug stuff during a thunderstorm? I used to, but don't bother anymore. Chances of actually getting a lightning strike through your house in this country are pretty small really. When I lived in Orlando for a bit I used to unplug stuff, the first few times. Then you realised that it happened that often that it wasn't worth worrying about or you'd spend half your life unplugging and re-plugging every electrical item. In 3 yrs there I never had the apartment struck, nor ever knew anyone who had. Given the intensity and frequency of the storms there, if it didn't happen there it ain't likely to happen here. Did get some simultaneous flash & crack combinations though. That's when you decide to get off the balcony/stand back from the window a bit.
    1 point
  43. Rather fun and also frustrating model watching at the moment. ECM after quite a few runs building a strong ridge to the east simply decides to bulldoze the ridge at day 5. Really baffling how it can swing and change even quite close to verification. It then proceeds to fall off a cliff with a rather slack pattern which looks very unlikely to come to fruition. GFS looks the more reliable scenario, especially given ensemble support and that it was the route models have been taking up to now. Not to bash models but I feel the UKMO has been performing very poorly recently. Definitely the most easterly biased of the models at the moment as seems to not like the weak jet at all. Example of this is wanting to breakdown this weeks plume a day earlier than most models and last Saturdays trough which even at T48 had this low 100 miles too far east and was against all other model output.
    1 point
  44. http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-48.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-72.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-96.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-120.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-144.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-168.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-192.png?12 NAEFS not looking too bad either edit the further south and east you are.......
    1 point
  45. At the moment it looks like the main chance of thunderstorms will be Friday night, a front should clear through then, Saturday there is a chance of showers though, if your festival is on Sunday aswell at the moment that looks good with a ridge of high pressure moving in from the sw.Still just too far ahead to be sure of though but hope it goes well for you.
    1 point
  46. Erm the only issue being there is 31 days in August and the charts you posted are from the 5th......meaning there would be another 26 days of August left after that point? Given model volatility to this point, let's not count too many chickens eh. It's looking a lot more promising for heat lovers tonight however, that cannot be denied.
    1 point
  47. Personnally i hope we dont have a Euro High during the Autumn,when we do it just feels like an extension of summer for much of the season which i would rather not happen. I would like Autumn to feel like Autumn. I despised Autumn 2011 for example which was dominated by a Euro High for much of the time ,didnt feel very Autumnal at all that year. But good luck with your forecast anyway BFTV.
    1 point
  48. I decided to use the analogous years to create a simple Autumn (SON) forecast, in the same vein as the summer forecast seen here, which appeared to capture the overall pattern so far this summer very well. As it is quite rudimentary, it will once again, just be looking at the months general pattern, without mention of specific weeks or events. This time, I will though, try to include the rainfall and temperature elements also. Anyway, this time around, I used 9 different criteria in order to find years common to this so far, these were. An AO that has generally gone from -ve in Winter to +ve in Spring and Summer A NAO that has generally gone from -ve in Winter to +ve in Spring and Summer ENSO values (based of the Nino 3.4 region) that were close to neutral at Summer's end and into Autumn Northern hemisphere snow cover below average in August, slightly average in September and slightly above average in October. QBO that started out the year -ve but has risen to strong +ve values in Summer Years with an 11 year mean sunspot count below 70 An AMO that averaged between 0 and 0.25 for the first 6 months of the year A PDO that has averaged between 0 and -0.5 for the first 6 months of the year Years with September sea ice area below 4 million km2. These are the number of matched criteria at the top, and the years in the columns. Just like for the summer forecast, 2006 had the most matches, though only 7 this time compared to 8 in summer. For the forecast, I'll be using the 5, 6 and 7 matches and assigning a weighting to them in the NCEP reanalysis charts. So the years with five matches will be included in the composite maps once, 6 matches included twice and 7 matches included 3 times. Here are the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly charts, which are a good indicator of where we'll see the ridges and troughs (which, to a degree, indicate high and low pressure areas also). ..................September .................. .......................... October .............................. ..................... November .............Autumn Overall Below are the temperature anomalies .....................September ......................... ................... October ...................... ....................... November Autumn Temperature Anomaly Below are the precipitation anomalies ..................... September .................... ..................... October ........................ ..................... November Autumn precipitation anomaly So for the forecast. September A Euro high is likely to be a strong feature of the month. This may bring largely settled weather, with well above average temperatures and below average rainfall across much of England. The further north and west you get, the more likely you to see depressions bringing spells of rain and keeping temperatures close to or slightly above average, similar with rainfall. October October is likely to see an increased high pressure influence across the British Isles, producing spells of settled weather during month with below average rainfall and above average temperatures for most. November This month sees a change with a large trough centred towards the north of the British Isles and a strong ridge in the Atlantic. This may bring depressions down from the north west, impacting northern areas the most. The weakened Euro high may still influence the south east a little, with temperatures slightly above average here. The mid-Atlantic ridge may exert a slight influence on western Ireland also, reducing the rainfall anomalies here. Otherwise temperatures are likely to be close to average and rainfall above average. Overall Temperatures well above average towards the south east with below average rainfall. Elsewhere close to or slightly above average temperatures and rainfall, with western Ireland having slightly below average rainfall.
    1 point
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