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Would they be the same models that were picking up signals for another summer like last year's? I doubt anyone can do anything more than guess, at this range...

Will remember today almost 30c on our 30th wedding aniversary(3 life sentences according to Mrs Northernlights) went to Hopemen beach for picnic lunch(16c there with an onshore wind bliss) then down to local pub for a drink outside in the evening and then dined al fresco on the slabs outside the north facing back door about an hour ago with a fantastic sunset to round off the day. Weather was almost as good in July 83. The sky today with its wisps of very high cloud and vivid blue reminded of the school cruise I went on in the seventies to the Meditteranean countries of Spain Portugal and Morocco. Fantastic for Scotland!!!! A final photo of the view to the north at 11.00pm

Is é sin gu math, mar sin!

I wonder if Draztik is Purga? lol.

Car thermometer was up at 30c near Forres an hour ago but at home we have 28c and a fresh to strong SSE wind which is really devastating grass and crops especially lower down on the coastal plain. Must be descending wind off the Cairngorms . Was "nt expecting it to be so windy today.

Ehhh, I'd take three months of warm sunny weather over three months of rain, cloud and wind any day, Which is what the very large percentage of previous Summer's have consisted of. Nothing more depressing than that we you know it's going to be the same for the other nine months. I'm not saying that I expect it to be like that all the time, as much as I detest Winter and some of the Autumn I put up with them because their necessary. However when you've had the dismal spell of Summer's we've had I don't think it's asking a lot to have one really good one. You dislike Summer, that much is evident. You've had a great run, must of been in you're element the last seven years as I'm sure you will be this coming Winter. I'm afraid the vast majority of people like me want a decent summer for once, we're fed up of the rain, cold and cloud. Meanwhile you enjoy you're nine months of unsettled gloom, who seems more hard done by?

According to this map recent conditions have raised SST's to over 19c over a wide area west of Cornwall and South of Ireland: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2 with anomalies up to 4c above average there, and higher around some western coasts apparently! (link to anomaly plot below the map) Still some average to slightly below average areas in the Channel and southern North Sea, presumably left over from the colder anomalies in spring and where the surface has been mixed more.

Last Summer, and the summer before that...oh and the summer before that.

A small update from my original summer forecast back in May, First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer. And with more data available I have reran the climate simulator for the temperatures, The pink line is our forecast average temperature and the green line is the average so its basically saying the average temperatures for the rest of summer to be mainly 1.5c above average.

BBC weather for the week ahead with Nina Ridge

With the inevitable "eastward shift" pattern getting underway, yours truly cannot help but begin to wonder if, for some of us at least, this "event" could turn into the biggest busted flush of all time?

Now SSTs like those would (with all the usual caveats ) be a good thing in terms of autumnal storm-chances?

To be fair we still have to wait what the ice minimum will be like until we can jump into conclusions but even though the weather may of been cool this year, the ice was always thin and it will always be a task for the ice to "recover" from such a low extent last year(bearing in mind the extent was lowest more or less during the Autumn months also) so its perhaps not much of a surprise that we may head to quite an low extent again this year.

There was already a guide written by me about UK thunderstorm set-ups, but it was done some 7 years ago now and I've felt for a while that it needed a re-vamp and updating to make a more comprehensive guide to the processes that produce the various types of thunderstorms we see in the UK. So here it is ... the Netweather guide to thunderstorms in the British Isles .... 15 pages long: Thunderstorms in the British Isles.pdf

the heats gone to some posters heads this evening, its like winter with over optimistic ramping going on...

??????????

Autumn's here already if you know where to look. Took a slow bike ride with my daughters earlier today, holly bushes are heaving with green berries, 'Lords & Ladies' are just popping their heads up on the grass verges. Blackberries, hawberries and sloes are there already (albeit still green) and conkers are fattening by the day. My cherry trees have been plundered and our 16 Housemartin nests are full to bursting with young 'uns keen to stretch their wings before they head South. Barley and wheat fields are a beautiful golden colour, with a far far better crop than last year. Keep looking, you'll find it !!

Thats the best thing ive heard for ages "offshore wind"

I just don't take any notice of it at all, SI...

Not looking a bad week for us over here this week with an offshore wind. I wont mind some showers if temperatures are still fairly healthy compared to average. low to mid 20s looking likely.

It became hot here today, just under 30'C, feels Mediterranean out there!

Not to forget the snow hurricane last winter!

He also said this summer could have shades of 76 and last winter 47 Lol.

Actually Pete the CFSV2 model has done another good job with this summers overall synoptic pattern, also people tend not to take any notice of them when it shows them what they don't want Lol.

What on Earth are you on about, barrie...? Now go and have yourself a nice vindaloo...

More like 2 weeks out!

LOL!

They seem to change every few days, someone the other day was talking a signal for a warm September/October. The models are pretty much useless 2 months out IMO.

Totally agree!Remember Late Sept/early Oct 2011? i think we had our best dry, sunny and v warm spell of the year then. The remarkable fact about that late warm spell was how it stayed warm even after dusk.

It really has been brilliant when you look at it like that, very similar to 2006. Only trouble is being a heatlover you can't help but wan't more and it feels like it's been too short.

So it looks like a few days of hot and sultry weather then a breakdown to south westerlies and back to normal temps and boring weather .

As you were with this update UK Outlook for Monday 5 Aug 2013 to Monday 19 Aug 2013: There is a good deal of uncertainty during this period. Currently there are some indications that northern parts of the UK will most likely be unsettled with outbreaks of rain, but with some drier and brighter interludes at times. Meanwhile, southern areas seem rather more likely on balance to have spells of fine, settled and occasionally warm weather, although with the chance of occasional heavy, perhaps thundery, rain and cooler conditions. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Depends on the depth of the heating - satellites measure skin and sub-skin temperature down to c. 1m below which they are compared with buoy measurements. One would think that a couple of decent storms might knock the surface temperatures down several degrees with mixing towards the foundation temperature at around 10 metres depth.

I think people take the calendar too seriously at times. It's the same in winter when people declare it over by Valentines day, even though you can (and often do) get wintry weather throughout March and even into April. I, personally, consider September more "summer" than "autumn".

Reached Snowdon summit around 3.30am this morning, and waited an hour for the sun rise...Just got home Im pretty cream cracker'd to say the least. We were very lucky, as cloud completely shrouded the mountain around 10min after these shots were taken, all worth the while. Just need to gear myself up for my 19th summit now. It was only just starting to get light, so the shot's are a little wishy..

As far as I am concerned, the seasons will start whenever...March 2012 was hardly winter; March 2013 was hardly spring. Climate doesn't obey manmade timescales...

Of course September is in Summer. It always greatly annoys me that people seem to think Summer comes to an end on September 1st or 4th for when the holidays are over, the same as people seem to think that June 1st is Summer, or even the middle of May some people!! I don't consider Summer over until the last week of September and even then I've known Indian summers and very warm weather at the end of September or beginning of October. You can't put an end date of a season on the start date of the month, like September, especially as the sun's relativity to the Earth, and Meteorologists dictate that the end of Summer is technically September 21st. Even then you can still have very warm weather before or after that date.

PM me what you want to be called and I can change it for you. Lets not give up on summer just yet - its only 21st July after all! Admittedly hot, sunny spells are best June & July at peak daylight length but still August can deliver - and still could. Trying to feel cheery under this awful low cloud...

When you get 30c on 1st of October,like we did a couple of years ago.Heat is possible all the way upto that date. I've know plenty of Octobers where we have 70f or so for a few days.. August won't be has warm as this July.But there wil be days inbetween the atlantic jet, where the weather will be nice. And i still think we will get a couple of weeks of fine weather in there somewhere along the line.I know September and October aren't summer months.. But its well possible to get summer type days. I'd settle for an average August, This July as been exceptional, and to look for a repeat in August would be to much to ask.

I think you are right, S...Whatever the SST happens to be, there's always the chance that the overlying airmass might be ideal for low-cloud formation...

SSTs around our shores are no longer below average according to this map, generally being average to slightly above now.

For a change it has been absolutely beautiful down here in Cornwall .. Loads of sunshine and plenty of beach days and fishing trips , did not waste a minute . I do feel for you good people who live in the cities and inland locations, can't be easy up there.... Nothing better than being able to cool of in the sea! Anyway.........Bring on the thunderstorms!

Haha, of course, how dare we have any sunshine. I've only just got used to not reading Purga talking about his epic cold uppers, so three weeks of sun and a bit of warmth isn't too much to begrudge us summer folks is it!

Volcanic activity worldwide 18-19 Jul 2013: Tungurahua, Sabancaya, Popocatepétl and more Friday Jul 19, 2013 04:47 AM | Map of recent earthquakes at Mt Churchill volcano in eastern Alaska Map of recent quakes at the Long Valley caldera (California) Aerial view of the crater of Popocatepetl on 15 July (CENAPRED) Moderate explosion from Santiaguito early on 18 July Current seismic recording at Telica (TELN station, INETER) Seismic recording from San Cristobal volcano (CRIN station, INETER) Current seismic recording from Turrialba volcano (VTUC station, OVSICORI) Last night's seismic signal from Tungurahua (RETU station, IGPEN) Recent earthquakes near Sabancaya volcano Sakura-Jima volcano news latest (Apr-Jul 2013) | Jan-Mar 2013 | Sep-Dec 2012 | archive Friday, Jul 19, 2013 Sakurajima volcano (Japan): ash plume to 20,000 ft (6 km) altitude An ash plume at 20,000 ft (6 km) altitude was reported this morning at 03:08 GMT (12:08 local time). This would be the largest explosion of the volcano in at least 1 year. Nyamuragira volcano (DRCongo) activity update: steaming/degassing from pit inside summit calderaThursday Jul 18, 2013 13:21 PM | BY: T NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using Landsat 8 data from the USGS Global Visualization Viewer. Caption by Robert Simmon. NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using Landsat 8 data from the USGS Global Visualization Viewer. Caption by Robert Simmon. Recent NASA satellite images from 11 June 2013 show a thick steam and gas plume rising from a pit crater in the summit caldera of Nyamuragira volcano. No evidence of lava close to the surface was found, while the lava lake in neighboring Nyiragongo remains well active and visible on the same images.Nyamuragira's plume was rich in water vapor — which condenses rapidly in the humid tropical air — and sulfur dioxide, which lends a blue tint in natural-color satellite imagery. Carbon dioxide, fluorine, and chlorine gas are also found in Nyamuragira lavas and likely present in the gas plume. Located near the eastern boundary of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nyamuragira is one of Africa’s most active volcanoes. If degassing magma was near the surface, then the intense heat would cause a bright red glow in shortwave infrared light. No such glow is visible atop Nyamuragira, but it is present on neighboring Nyiragongo Volcano, which has featured a lava lake for more than a decade. The images were collected on June 11, 2013, by the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8. In natural color (top), the rainforest is dark green, clouds are white, and the sulfur-rich volcanic plume is very light blue. Barren land at Nyamuragira’s summit and lava flows are brown or black. In false-color, clouds are mostly white and volcanic plumes are cyan. Forest and other vegetation is bright green. Fresh lava flows from the 2011–12 eruption of Nyamuragira are black, and older lava flows appear as brown tendrils running down the mountain's flanks. Agricultural fields in the southeast (lower right) corner of the image also appear brown. Churchill (United States, Eastern Alaska): A seismic swarm with magnitudes up to 3.5 has been occurring in the Wrangell Arc about 40 km NE of Mt. Churchill volcano during the past few days. The intensity and frequency of the quakes has calmed down yesterday. While some few of the quakes are near the volcano, most are not, and the swarm is probably not linked to the volcanic system of Mt Churchill volcano. Long Valley (California): Normal seismic activity with numerous tiny earthquakes continues to occur at the southern and western parts of the caldera as well as under Mammoth mountain. There are no signs of a possible eruption in a near future. Colima (Western Mexico): Although the volcano is no longer making much news, a lava flow continues to effuse as a viscous flow on the upper eastern flank of the volcano (source: pers. communicataion). Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): Activity has been comparably low with an average of 1-2 emissions of steam and gas, sometimes some ash, per hour during the past days. The strong explosion from 12 July has effectively destroyed the new lava dome, an aerial inspection via helicopter on 15 July showed. In the past 24 hours, a number of volcanic-tectonic quakes have appeared, which could indicate that a new batch of magma is currently intruding, and lead to another phase of increased activity soon. The alert level remains unchanged at Yellow Phase 3. Santa María / Santiaguito (Guatemala): Not much has changed in the generally weak activity. Occasional explosions, sometimes moderately large, occur at irregular intervals. One yesterday morning at 05:59 local time produced an ash plume of 700 m height and ash fall in areas to the SW. The lava flow on the southern flank of the dome remains active and produces small rock avalanches. Pacaya (Guatemala): Mild strombolian activity from the Mackenney crater continues. Fuego (Guatemala): The lava flow on the southern side has remained active and was about 250 m long this morning, producing near-constant rockfalls towards the Taniluya canyon. At the summit, there are occasional strombolian explosions with incandescent material ejected to 100-125 m height above the crater. Telica (Nicaragua): The swarm of small earthquakes continues with little changes over the past days. San Cristobal (Nicaragua): Some elevated seismicity was recorded at the volcano during recent days and continues. This includes phases of harmonic tremor and long-period events. Turrialba (Costa Rica): The seismic swarm continues but has decreased in strength during the past day. Tungurahua (Ecuador): After the strong vulcanian explosion on 14 July, the volcano calmed down first, but resumed activity on 16 July which has been characterized by ash venting and small to moderate explosions and is continuing. This activity was accompanied by the appearance of tremor and long-period earthquakes indicative of fluid movements. In addition, inflation is measured at the NW flank, suggesting that more magma is rising, and could lead to new powerful explosions similar to the one from last Sunday. ... [read more] Sabancaya (Peru): A strong seismic swarm has occurred during the past days under the volcano, culminating in a magnitude 5.9 earthquake on 16 July. The swarm consisted almost entirely of volcanic-tectonic quakes, that relate to rock fracturing due to rapid pressure changes and might be caused by an intrusion of magma. IGP reports that up to 1500 earthquakes were recorded per day. At the moment, the swarm still continues, but is decreasing. No changes of activity have been noticed at the surface. The number of long-period quakes (thought to correspond to internal movements of magma, gasses and other fluids) has remained low. Volc

To be fair, a few members in the seasonal forecast thread including Roger J Smith and Alex did predict a good summer this year (Alex singled out the possibility of a dry July back in May based on CFS v2). Snowking also forecasted the start of the warm, settled spell very well in the model threads I think. It will be interesting to see what happens after next week's potential synoptic change, as Roger's forecast was going for a dry summer throughout interspersed with some storms, while if I remember correctly Snowking was anticipating a breakdown to unsettled conditions come the end of the month and into August (apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick here). I'm hoping it will stay dry for August as my son is in school and doesn't break up until next week, and I'm hoping we can go on some trips to the seaside!

Sorry, that's temps! Slightly below average rainfall...

HOW HIGH ARE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS? Noctilucent clouds are our planet's highest clouds--but exactly how high are they? The textbook answer is 82-82 km, but textbooks can be wrong. Peter Rosén of Stockholm, Sweden, decided to find out for himself. "On July 4th I photographed some interesting NLCs," he explains. "After uploading them on Spaceweather, I noticed that P-M Hedén had photographed the same formations and at the same time from a location 26 km (16 miles) north of mine. I decided to make precise measurements of the same features in both pictures with respect to the stars and try to determine the exact geographical position and height of these NLCs." Scroll past the images to learn more: "Some years ago I found a very useful calculator put online by Paul Schlyter to measure the position and altitude of Perseid meteors. By entering the geographical position of both observers and the respective coordinates of an object in the sky, it will compute the position and altitude of the object. In this case, I used it for NLCs." He picked four features color-coded in the figure above (best seen in the full-sized version) and measured their positions. "The height of these NLCs ranged from 75.1 km (blue dot) to 78.6 km (red dot)," he says. "These results seem to be a little bit lower than the value of 83 km that is often referenced." http://www.spaceweather.com

Info on past events (goes all away back to 11000BC!) can be viewed here if anyone is interested: http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/2000_on.htm#2000-2050

Just past the half-way point of summer 2013 now,and the difference between the first half last year compared to this year couldn't be more stark! 2012.. 2013..

http://vimeo.com/67800816