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X2 Flare From a new region off the East limb, this active region is turning towards earth in the next few hours. Also 2 M class flares were produced from the same spot...

This is from Minnisota were winter won"t let go in some parts ,This video looks likes advancing glaciers! fascinating to watch

I haven't posted any photos for a while so thought I would post up these from summer 2011. They were taken on a thundery 26th August 2011 in Wiltshire.

Not sure I agree with that video from the BBC completely, temperatures are not necessarily going to be cold with an easterly wind like shown, after all Scandinavia is about to get a notable warm spell with temperatures forecast in the mid 20's by the end of the week. Not necessarily too cold if we then had an easterly setting up in Late May then. The 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks on the Met Office site also suggest temperatures recovering to nearer normal with the chance of warmer weather increasing into June so I personally wouldn't be calling for temperatures 'distinctly below average' all of the time. The Met Office also said on their Facebook page today (presumably relating to a particular recent article by the Sun): 'Although there have been stories in the press saying we’re in for another washout summer, don't worry, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season.' so I'm not going to really be worrying about much for summer as a whole yet Edit: also in a blog article: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/05/13/the-jet-stream-and-why-its-too-early-to-write-off-summer/

We are not done yet! A 2nd X-class solar flare in less than 24 hours. This one is even larger than the first one, measuring at X2.8. This one is also not Earth directed.

The storm approaching. Unfortunately rain and hail hitting window makes it blurry at times.

Found this of interest over on Neven's blog; I talk seldom as I find it today counter-productive to publish things and work with decision-makers at UN, EU & UK. Yet, I felt it necessary to write a note on this matter as I was nominated back in 2008 for international Nanak Peace Prize (sea level rise risks for global security and economic stability). Firstly, the Negative Arctic Oscillations will continue and intensify much like sea ice will diminish and the snow line retreat will head to the north earlier than before. Almost each year from now on will show some sort of advance in melting (snow, sea ice, tundra or sea bed) to the previous years. Storms will be fiercer. Secondly, the metamorphosis of Greenland's cold, dry, stable and moraine-forming ice sheet into warm, wet, dynamic and aggregate-forming ice sheet when summers will see Greenland surrounded by ice-free oceans. The melt water from the surface percolates to the ice sheet base and transforms it into honeycombed, water-clogged ice that is slushy and unable to withstand pressure of the overlying ice layers. This eventually leads to Larsen B style rapid ice sheet failure as watery base oozes its way out and the overlying colder and dryer ice fractures forming huge ice islands. Heindrich Minus One (H-1) Ice Berg Calving then results, with the associated Last Dryas cooling as the ocean basin between America and Europe fills with ice debris. Thirdly, the transformation of dominance of the "seasonal impact" moulins/crevasses into "accumulative impact" moulins and crevasses. Until recently the ice melting occurred on the perimeter of Greenland where melt water and ice drains into ocean by the early autumn and takes the heat (thermal inertia of melt water) with it. Although Jason Box criticised me that there exist no "accumulative impact" moulins on top of Greenland interior, I was able to find 29 sites that year in aerial survey. Ice sheet is highly insular material and when melt water falls deep into ice, no heat can escape to the surface. As each summer adds water in subglacial ponds, or crevasses within ice, there is an absolute greenhouse effect in action with 100% retention of summertime heat stored by melt water and ice (if surface water re-freezes within ice crevasses at the end of season). Accumulative impact moulins sit on ice sheet where subglacial ground inclination is inward, thus taking the melt water ever deeper into ice. Although some water re-freezes in crevasses to form those blue bands (occasionally seen in the ice bergs), the thermal inertia is absorbed by the surrounding ice matrix which warms. Each subsequent summer see the energy required for melting decreased and in many cases there are growing liquid water pockets at the base of the ice sheet. At the end of this process, after just a decade of seriously warm post-sea ice summers, the ice is so honeycombed and soft that it cannot withstand overlying layers. The harder ice sheet surface caves in while the highly pressured slushy ice and water come out. This then triggers a rapid sea level jump, Heindrich (H-1) ice debris event and the Last Dryas. Fourthly, the large supply of water triggers three rapid erosion forces. Those of cavitation, plucking and kolking and where the ice sheet edge meets ocean, the turbidic mud flows and rock falls like in Melville Bay. This region then rapidly subsides in a Storegga-slide style event pushed by the large ice islands launched to sea and the high pressure water jets that cause the three rapid erosion forces. Besides ice free Arctic Ocean, the methane infested Arctic air will trap sun's energy far more effectively that it is still doing today. None of these things should surprise us. Posted by: Veli Kallio | May 12, 2013 at 05:24 When we try to imagine the water filled slush below Greenland's surface ice this provides an interesting look at how it all hangs together? There must come a point where this unique forcing provides the means for a rapid collapse of portions of the ice sheet and , should we see an ice strewn Atlantic, a chilly medium term future for us here in the UK (will we still have folk complaining of global cooling as the massive ice sheet disintegrates before their eyes due to a down turn in UK temps?)

Is there a reason why you have repeated in totality the month ahead forecast form UK Met which Stuart posted but in his case a reference to where it came from? sorry if this sounds a bit rude to a newcomer? see this link http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/22737-bbc-weather-monthly-outlook/page-27#entry2693433

STRONGEST FLARE OF THE YEAR: A sunspot hiding behind the sun's northeastern limb erupted on May 13th at 02:17 UT, producing the strongest solar flare of the year so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash from the X1.7-class eruption: Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) tracked a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. No planets were in the line of fire. However, the CME appears to be on course to hit NASA's Epoxi and Spitzer spacecraft on May 15th. The sunspot that produced this blast is on the farside of the sun. Soon, in a few days, it will turn toward Earth, emerging into view over the sun's eastern limb. Stay tuned for a better view and, perhaps, more flares. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Wouldn't it be 0.0092C * 280ppm? or 2.58C? Since we're starting from 280ppm rather than 0ppm?

Ah, of course! So going back to the original graph from 1980, the 0.0014C per month increase does equal about 0.0166C/year, or an increase of 0.55C since 1980.

"linest" doesn't use the dates, just the, in this case, temperature data. But doing as you say, graphing, and getting the linear trend equation, I get y=0.016x +0.1213 for 1980-2012

Looking at the current output trends, there are some mixed signals at the moment. Both the GFS and ECM continue to suggest height rises across Scandinavia towards the second half of the month. ....... ..........ECMWF t216 ................... ................. GEFS t216 The last time we saw strong heights over Scandinavia during summer was in 2006. ...................Summer 2006 GPHA............. Both the ECM and GFS have also begun to hint at a possible Greenland high/west based -ve NAO. This particular feature has been the bane of "summery" weather fans in recent years, and has been a strong feature of every summer since 2006. ..........2007-2012 Mean Summer GPHA For now current models suggest just a weak surface high across Greenland without a strong upper level support, with the Scandi high dominating in the medium term. It will be important to keep an eye on Greenland as we move towards June, as this has been when the high pressure has set up shop there and refused to move in recent years. This can be seen in the fact that we haven't seen a +ve NAO summer month since July 2006, despite 2 +ve and one neutral NAO May during that time.

I'll leave that to the termites.

I think I'll stick to producing methane!

Why we should work harder to raise co2 level http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/why-we-should-work-hard-to-raise-co2.html

No chance of that here even in mid summer but we did break 20 degrees yesterday for the first time this year and I think almost repeated the fete today, setting 2 new daily records in the process, yesterday hit 21.5c beating the old record by a degree or so, just about as warm as you are ever likely to see here in mid May. It comes with high winds though gusting to 50/60kmh so not exactly that pleasant trying to sit on the deck with a beer. Looks a short lived burst of warmth turning cool over the long weekend, probably end up with flurries lol

Probably a different imaginary number related to surface water.

Not quite. Look at post number 98 by Sparkicle on the previous page. Though I think that will please you even less!

thanks, interestingly the rest of the article is reasonably sensible.

yep just about to enter storm season..which runs from mid May to mid August approx...with a peak around mid June to end of July..summer 2010 was particularly stormy and had at least one storm everyday for nearly 6 weeks.

Another warm/hot spring weekend here...reached 29c yesterday.

BBC saying snow tomorrow for south wales, even to low levels. What? How? Where did this come from

Using the same method as above (but using annual rather than monthly) gives us Jan 1980 = 338ppm Dec 2012 = 393ppm Change of 55ppm over 32 years. Rate of temperature change = 0.0158C, total change over period = 0.5056C which gives us 0.5056/55 = 0.0092C/ppm. Standardising* at 560ppm gives us a sensitivity of 560ppm * 0.0092C = 5.14C !!! Assuming that CO2 is the only driver of climate which it isn't so this must be the maximum upper bound estimate which is broadly in line with current theory. If one assumes like before that CO2 is about 90% responsibile for climate then the maximum upper bound estimate can be lowered to be 5.14 * 0.9 = 4.626C That's another question of mine resolved, ticked off the list! *(I realised when I was trying to find the problem that the sensitivity is standardised at 560ppm (ie a doubling since pre-industrial times))

Reproduced your results in Gnumeric. I was using monthly values, and, I suspect, you are using average annual values like wot I just did: An order of magnitude difference between monthly, and annual values!

Here's the 30 year monthly series from HadCRU4, Which gives us an increasing rate of 0.001oC/Yr. Here is the IPCC 2007 list of climate drivers, which gives a percentage impact of, Giving us by far that CO2 is by far the primary driver of climate. CO2 levels have increased (from Jan 1982 to Dec 2012) from 341ppm to 394ppm and increase of +53ppm. At the same time the temperature has increased by 0.042oC. So, at the most recent climate change rate (last 30 years) each CO2 ppm drives climate by 0.0008oC. A doubling of the 1982 CO2 value therefore leads to climate change of 0.27oC. Of course, it's not as simple as that, but this does rather lead to the question, where is the 1.5-4.5 oC rate of CO2 sensitivity? The theory doesn't appear to match observations, and questions such as these are not only valid, they are required. One does wonder whether the rather offensive label "denier" has been appropriated to avoid answering questions such as these.

Yes, I would reject the 16 year period as a suitable measuring timespan. Primarily because the anomaly series is based on a 30 year period; so we already have a defacto standard for measurement periods. Just pointing out that the claim temperatures have increased over 16 years is correct, but only just

The problem with poorly written and researched stuff like the Sun article is that it has a dangerous habit of shaping public perception. In summer, retailers, events organisers and the tourist industry depend on accurate weather forecasting for their livelihood. If people think we are going to have a poor summer at this stage the it can affect what they spend their money on. Now, there may be floods at Glastonbury this year and Wimbledon may be played in a heatwave, but at the moment there is absolutely no serious evidence that either will happen. The most sensible posters on this forum know damn well that anything beyond 2 weeks ahead is speculation. (they don't call it FI for nothing). Yes, it's often well informed and intelligent speculation, but that's all it is. Stating categorically what the weather will do in two months time is irresponsible and does weather forecasting a disservice. Ignore.

The rate of change of temperature anomalies is currently falling, here. So we are still increasing, but at a reduced rate. We do have a temperature rise, as BFTV has shown over the 16 years, at a whopping 0.0091oC/Yr. If you make the chart less wide, the trend line looks steeper, too. So, yes, at this current 16 year rate, the global temperature will rise by ... wait for it ..... 0.9oC. But beware extrapoloations, since they are rarely accurate and/or correct, so the 100Yr rate is for illustration purposes only. Now, this rise is significant (since HadCRUT4 now gives global averages to three decimal places) but only just by just under 1/100th/degree. I wouldn't want to stand at the sides and point it out too loudly since this rate is well within the realms of simple noise and could go either way. EDIT: The above was for annual averages. Here's the chart for monthly averages, (The data is from Jan 1996 to Dec 2012) This also shows increasing anomalies; however this one comes in at a whooping 0.0007oC! Yes, you read it right, by 7/10,000th degC/Yr So it is factually correct to say "the temperature is increasing" .... but come on guys ....

Well would you believe it NAE brings wintry PPN to parts of North West England and N Wales tomorrow evening the 22oC 7 days ago seems a lifetime ago Thankfully things look like heading in the right direction come months end C.S

Update for the week to May 11th The current 1 day extent is 13,242,510km2 while the 5 day mean is on 13,324,430km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -268,310km2, a decrease from -385,880km2 last week. We're currently 13th lowest on record, an improvement from 7th lowest last week. The average daily loss over the last 7 days was 28.6k/day, compared to the long term average of 45.4k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of 43.9k/day. The average long term loss over the next week is 44.3k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being 53.8k/day.

We got to 24oC yesterday and today the forecast is for 28oC. Sadly I'll be on the road travelling to calgary tonight so no BBQ for me.

Impressive ammounts of snow across USA http://t.co/uoAQWN0iuC

Historic snowstorm in USA http://t.co/fJyTGlSrqn

I can't seem to cut and paste on this site but this is a response from Walt Meier research scientist for NISDC Here is a response from Walt Meier at NSIDC.docx

Here's one of the creek behind my house

few more, its a great time of year to be out, all the shiny boats and hirers disappear and the waterways are free....

seeing as it's now Autumn, a couple I took while moving a boat last week.

Night time lunar rainbow photographed as it dazzles over Victoria Falls 'Moonbow' is caused by the light of the moon hitting African waterfall's high spray http://www.mirror.co...me-lunar-786004

Really love that first one 4wd, brilliant shot!! Welford Park today, soooo cold... River Lambourn at Welford Park by MarkQPR, on Flickr

Poldhu Cove on a bleak winters afternoon. Quite serene with sunlight filtering through thick Cirrus.