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Can not for the life of me understand why there is so much emphasis on the ECM 32 dayer when it has been flapping around like a fish out of water the last few weeks, Even the update a few days ago suggested more in the way of northern blocking and has now changed back again. Treat it the same you would treat any other model.

"The epic battle began. Powers collided, with no end in sight. Which one shall prevail? Which one shall dominate? Which one shall overcome the other and rule over the north?" I just had to add a little Recretos' touch of epicness.

Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast. The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not. Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather. Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas. M.

This time 50 years ago I was a young lad living on my mum and dads farm in Cheshire and totally unaware about what we were in for. Those who can remember, will never forget the scenes for the next 3 months. Over 60 days of continuous snowcover, severe frosts day and night, raging blizzards , deep drifts, blowing snow and frozen rivers. Ice floes on The River Mersey, River Dee frozen over, even the sea froze for a mile out in Kent and the Medway posts were ice.locked. Never missed a day out school even though the lane to our farm and the bus stop was filled with deep snow drifts, Schools never closed !

For those in the snow-starved south, you could always buy yourself a little bothy on Fiacaill a' Choire Chais in the Cairngorms?

Battle of Britain to rage in January - and from say week two [anything from 7th onwards] cold to increasingly win as the jetstream shifts south and severe cold in place to our NE advances with GHP extension SE towardsUK/Irealnd/ North Sea developing. Pressure to S and SE lowers, trough over Scandi. Prolonged and deep cold to takie hold as we deepen into January as the trough in Scandi becomes extension of HP from Greenland and a pronounced NE [generally] feed takes hold. The active pattern early Jan will be there but with deep cold knocking on doorstep it could get messy and much colder and snowier earlier than anticipated in LRF. 8-10 Jan......dates GP mentions, dates to watc another to watch 16-22 could be a large winter storm and a memorable part of winter. Are we seeing very early signs from GFS FI of what the hemispheric pattern is trying to achieve but not quite getting there yet? I had a poor start to my LRF but looking like a reasonablet call for Xmas period which is increasing confidence of events ahead as the pattern evolving is anticipated. January I will add looks a a ding dong month. BFTP

The Red, it has the sun on its side BFTP

If we had the PC's and internet back then we would still have plenty of numpties posting that winter was over before it had even begun. Seriously though I just about remember this great winter. I can remember my father standing me on the front room window sill and looking out of the window at the immense snow drifts in our road even in Bournemouth and telling me to take it all in because I might never see snow like this again. The next time we stood together in a window and marveled at the depth of the snow was fifteen years later in February 1978 at Worth Matravers in the Purbeck hills of Dorset when the snow was even deeper than 1963!

Was a telegram boy during the school holidays. Remember how cold it was delivering on my bike. No central heating or double glazing and an inch of dust in the roof space for insulation. Mind you we were use to getting dressed in bed and watching ice patterns form on the inside of the windows. Later on was able ride down to the town centre on the frozen river. When it started to thaw some little heros rode down the river on the ice flows. I preferred to watch. Think that many now would find it difficult to cope.

ohh, how close ? Good to see tropical stratosphere temperatures forecast to fall which I think would be a pre-requisite for warming at the Pole. Warming also now very pronounced at 5hPa and 1hPa: I think the date around 7th / 8th January continues to be the most likely date of a warming event. Note the continued similarity with the 62/63 warming event in terms of GPH profile.

One things for sure, there is going to be a hell of a battle above our heads come the new year; Who are you supporting? The red corner or the blue corner?

More likely they've just taken a peak at GP'S winter forecast and didn't want to get caught out. lol On a more serious note it would seem that they have seen something that is giving them reason to do this,especially so far out. As others have said they would lose no credibilty if they waited a while longer especially when they are normally so very cautious in their approach.and wording.

ECM consistent with it's expected temps- at 240 (30 Dec), looking at roughly -9c as the highest temp around, v close to breakdown warming- latest GFS suite consistent with a strong prolonged warming 192 onwards, with 0c and 5c being passed at 10hpa, and zonal 10hpa winds across the arctic, with a squeezed vortex around svalbard at 100hpa we see the mean vortex over siberia, with an elongated ridge moving energy into svalbard/scandi, symptoms shown by the current nwp, notably the ec op

Yes forgot about the ice on inside bedroom window, Hot water bottle in bed and torch at ready to watch snow at night.Wake in morning to sound of people shovelling snow, My Dad covering engine of his Ford Popular at night with blanket, trying start it in morning with starting handle, Was milk monitor at school, delivering frozen milk to class rooms, My God getting old

I remember the magical moment of emerging from the family Xmas party to walk the mile or so home (no car of course) and it was snowing. I was 8 and it was pure bliss all winter long! Just didn't mind the ice on the inside of the bedroom windows, getting dressed in bed, numb toes in wellies, one warm room in the house. We are just so soft now!

Happy memories!!!! I was working at Larkhill at the time and the Salisbury Plain resembled the Antarctic. The main Met. Office was a wooden hut with a central coke stove as the only heating. The electric fire had to used to stop the Dines from freezing. The heating in the radiosonde office had gone on the blink and couldn't be repaired because, although on an army camp, the army insisted it was an R.A.F building. They of course denied any responsiblity so we and the ink froze. To cap it all the heating in the GL radar for tracking the upper air ascents was also on the blink so the 0600z morning ascent was like sitting in a freezer. It took all day to thaw out if you were lucky. Happy days, not on your nelly. Give me a F12 on a Weather Ship any day.

I do recall the wonderfully fresh aroma that wafted in through the gaps in my council-house windows on the morning of the big thaw, in March... Edit: And, no, it wasn't newly-thawed dog poo!

Phil, if we had the internet and all the model charts to scroll over for hours on end the winter of 62/63 would never had happened !! Just glad I lived throughi it even though we had no central heating or double glazing. You never staying in the bathroom for long... brrr... happy memories. C

Great fun for us kids. Could not play football or Rugby for the whole of that term because of the snow depth, but our playground seemed the biggest outdoor skating rink in the world and I remember many hours after school sledging into the dark hours. C

Yes remember winter very well,First time seen snow plough in Birmingham, There is episode of Steptoe and Son that location shots around London streets filmed that winter, Great winter,nice times had by us kids

Yes i remember that winter so well C.I was 14 at the time and it started for me with the arrival of the snow on Boxing day from the North as the High ridged right up into Greenland. Frontal snow moved down the country in the Arctic flow on the eastern side of the block giving those further North a white Christmas and much of the UK was snow covered by Boxing night. A good website detailing the daily synoptics,temps. and general weather for that whole winter here http://myweb.tiscali...62-63/index.htm good work by Mike Tullett there. It was that winter that really got me into chart watching-i think i hardly missed a day where i would look at the BBC evening weather forecast-in black and white then of course and just simple lines(isobars)and fronts on the presentation map. I recall many days either after school or weekends when a whole crowd of us would meet up for sledging,snowball fights,building igloos and ice football on frozen ponds-the latter was quite a challenge.lol.I wouldn`t suggest the walking on ice covered water now but after a while in that winter the ice was at least 6inches or more thick. I started a weather diary on Jan 1st 1963 and recorded that the final bit of snow cover thawed on March 2nd and taking into account that the snow first fell on the 26th Dec 1962 that was 66days of continual cover. Add on some really low maximum and minimum readings and it really was a remarkable winter.

What really annoys me is that fact that some posters both on this form and over on the TWO forum seem to be determined not to just write off the rest of December for cold, but the entire of January too - and going as far to say that will be mild and zonal and even confidently predicting more flooding - how can they be so sure of this yes some long range models are buying into the zonal solution but if those long range models where showing cold I am sure the same posters would be say "exercise caution" or "its FI, it's not going to happen - generally the near term models are accurate up to about 5 days and then after is FI. The most extreme example of this was a poster over on the TWO forum who at first predicted a very cold winter and with the changes in model output recently is now predicting that this winter will be similar to 1988/89 - that was one of the mildest winters on record I don't see any way that this december will be as mild as 1988 (the second mildest in 100 years - a CET of 7.5C so a 1 in 50 year event at least!) so to get a winter to rival 1988/89 January and February are going to have to be record mild - some posters seem to be too influenced by emotion over thier disappointment with the lack of cold (e.g. the failed easterly) rather than analysing things objectively - so thats my gripe. I have posted a good example on the model thread of a month which had a mild and wet first 3 weeks - milder than this month and then a decent cold spell in the final week - December 2000 (which was in the so called "christmas pudding" as well btw) and many of the decembers of the 80s (e.g. 1986) were milder than this December and were followed by decent cold in January and February so why can't the same happen this time. Luke

Met office hinting at possible colder weather in mid Jan with their 30 day update, rare of them to go against the EC32, particularly at a range where they could easily wait until another 1, maybe even 2 runs before deciding whether to alter their wording, its not like they would be overly criticised as long as they changed as any colder weather crept into the 20 day range, the only thing i can think of is that they are factoring in a warming strat. EDIT : beaten to it!!

met 30 dayer finally recognises the upcoming warming. hints yesterday from ian re this and now on the website.

Just to say my previous post is a genuine post re it being a real test ahead as looking at what has been posted, touted, the pressure on the PV the warmings and forecast warming we should/ could see some serious and prolonged wintry weather. GP mentions the 8-10 Jan, well good on him. I see that as the pivotal period of our winter ie it'll kick in . I'll post my thoughts at length elsewehere but suffice to say dramatic changes with extension SE of GHP and jetstream shifts south is my anticipation. BFTP

Meanwhile back to the Stratosphere and signs of ongoing wave breaking are still in the outputs but up to now the vortex keeps fighting back. The00z GFS run at t240hrs show the Mid-Strato vortex still quite stubbornly modelled over the pole. ECM graph confirms the temperatures running fairly steady close to the mean. I guess we are keen to see complete vortex distruction after all the warmth that`s been attacking it up to now but so far no sign of that.We have seen brief splitting and some fragmentation but the core remains intact. Cold lovers are waiting to see if we can get a SSW to finish the job. If this doesn`t occur then at least it`s more data gathered to understand just a little more about wave breaking and minor warmings and the effect on the vortex. I believe that`s the way to look at this-a learning experience and not a forecast for cold.

The similarity seems to stop just there, if the strat profile is the leader one would anticipate similar widespread blocking and cold.......so if thius continues and the 'weather' remains as projected then where does that leave things? Potentially fascinating times ahead BFTP

Thanks again Matt. As i've just said in the model discussion thread the Met O predicted the 2009, 2010 cold spells from some distance away and what is disturbing is their 16-30 forecasts continues to suggest more of the same. So whatever positive signs some members on here are seeing is not being interpreted the same way by the Met O. I hope the likes of GP etc are right with regards to the potential in mid Jan but for the moment I will not be pinning my hopes on it.

Love that, its like the PiVoting point in the middle of a book, how will the story end like though? (rhetorical question)

Well, my opinion is, that given all the model output so far, and the reanalysis done, correlations, and overall patterns setting up, a displacement type SSW (@10mb) is more likely than a split type event. And in your chart, the heat influx would more than likely split the vortex. One of the best or "textbook" split SSWs recently, was the 2009 event. I used ERA, because it basically looks a lot better than the standard NCEP reanalysis.

Hi SB...spectral analysis of Tau Ceti suggests that planets are unlikely to be rocky because it's a metal difficient star......but that's not to say that there is no chance of rocky terrestrial planets......Re. habitable zone, looks like it's between 0.3AU & 0.8AU....My own thoughts are that discovery is very exciting, and hopefully might sooner rather than later kickstart some serious funding into future interstellar propulsion research as the Tau Ceti system is crying out to be explored!

We'll all be gone tomorrow so I can't see what all the fuss is... Apparently it'll all start in Oz with a showering of comets. Then they'll start up the LHC and create a black hole, turning our planet into a giant doughnut. Then a brown dwarf will fall into the hole and make the rest collapse into it... Looks like a crap day for it too.......

To repeat, no splitting of the PV on the ECM Ens 240-360h, but maintains it's position (at 10hPa) close to Novaya Zemyla throughout. There is a pulse of warming over Siberia in the Upper Strat by Christmas Day as we all know, but it seems a second and more enhanced pulse of warming develops over Siberia in this period and moves to the pole by 360h. It looks to me as if this could be the killer blow, coming in shortly after (and thereby tying in with a possible SSW around 10th, as has been suggested). Still time to change, though ! Incidentally, the GFS Ensemble mean out to T384 does nothing of the sort, maintaining a strong but still displaced PV in a similar area, and no warming close to the pole - 10hPa temp anomalies of -12 to -18C in/around the pole at T384. This contradicts some of the Hires output. This begs the question - how reliable is some of the GFS HiRes output at this timescale, I've never really verified it. Should we be making greater use of Ensemble mean beyond say T240 ? Certainly if the experience of using the tropospheric output is anything to go by - though I doubt Strat forecast can be as volatile as this !

It's getting cold as the polar vortex shifts energy dramatically over the next few weeks. At D5, the EC op has -30c uppers touching Svalbard.. Merry christmas on Longyearbyen

Here is my own thoughts for the rest of December, don't normally make forecast for the long range as im not that good but thought it might be fun to have a go! Initial forecast summary Overall im finding it rather difficult to produce a forecast, but then isn’t it always! What’s apparent is the PV shall remain disrupted and disorganised as we progress through December. I am generally supportive of height rises to the NE given the latest runs, although feel that these will transfer nearer Greenland as we progress through the month when we see further wave breaking disrupting the vortex and leading to more movement of the PV segments. This would also be supported by the GFS MJO outlook, and ensemble forecasts for the NAO from both the ECM and GFS. The CFS could also be included. Weatherwise a cold and unsettled start, with the potential for height rises to out NE, and some sort of easterly flow during the first third. As we progress into midmonth and beyond I feel higher pressure would transfer closer to Greenland, bringing a more N/NE’rly flow. Review so far The month started on a cold and unsettled note, while expected height rises to the north east materialised. Unfortunately we did not see the easterly flow that i expected, with low pressure from the west taking control, introducing unsettled weather with temperatures close to the average. Despite this the PV has remained disrupted, with a -AO and -NAO which has prevented us from experiencing something from winters past (i.e. Bartlett type weather). It’s apparent that my forecast of midmonth height rises over Greenland via retrogression from scandi will not materialise, and thus a north/north east flow. Update and initial January thoughts The following update and forecast is based on the latest stratospheric output, MJO, CFS, AO and NAO ensemble means, as well as 500hpa and 850hpa means. Stratospheric outlook Stratospheric temperatures at the 10hpa and 30hpa level are running just below the average, and have done since a small warming event at the beginning of the month. They are forecast to remain just below average for the next 10 days, with temperatures rising at 30hpa by day 10 (as shown on the ECM temperature charts). Note i have used the graphs for simplicity. Although not as apparent on the temperature graph, a major warming at the 10hpa level is forecast from day ten onwards (Siberian sector), this is shown on the ECM 10hpa geopotential height charts at day ten, and the GFS strat charts. The most significant warming is still out of range for the above charts, however the GFS 12z strat charts show this nicely, and have done for some time (and are not pushing back) I suspect this will lead to major disruption of the PV, or the killer blow seen as its not exactly rampant at present. This would be expected as we progress into January. For the rest of December, I expect the continuation of the relatively weak PV, centred towards the Siberian sector, which opens up potential for further height rises over Greenland. Zonal winds have risen slightly since a drop at the beginning of December, and are forecast to decrease again. Given their current and predicated strength I would expect the continuation of a weak(ish) PV. Further wave breaking is forecast by day ten, most notable wave one. This should displace the PV, and further stress it. It is also noted that wave two activity shows signs of increasing, which would place even greater stress on an already strained PV. MJO outlook There seems consensus to progress the MJO into phase two, although not of high amplitude. The UKMO is interesting in that wants to progress the MJO through higher amplitude phase one beforehand, which would give the following composite which has height rises over Greenland and a trough over the UK (although bear in mind these are to be used as guides). The composite for phase two MJO is the following A trough with the core of lower heights situated over the UK (i.e. unsettled) CFS charts Weeks one and two show a trough situated in the Atlantic, unfavourably for us, leading to unsettled and probably mild (at times), weather. Looking at all forecasts from Sunday 9th there seems a trend for height anomalies to continue above the norm around Greenland as progress past xmas day and into new year, with the core of lower heights transferring from the Atlantic into Europe. This would open the door to something a little more seasonal (e.g. northerly airstream). AO and NAO Ensembles The ensembles support the continuation of a –AO, although trending towards positive as we move towards months end and then negative again. Further to this there is support for the continuation of a mostly –NAO, although trending towards positive for months end. Mean height ensembles The ECM ensemble mean supports the continuation of higher pressure to the north (Greenland area) and the core of lower heights in the Atlantic, with the continuation of unsettled weather. Analysis of the 850hpa anomalies would indicate that temperatures should remain close to average, despite being unsettled. The GFS is similar, although perhaps more interesting by day ten to fifteen, with the core of lower heights into Europe and indication that UK might experience something a little more seasonal (i.e. some sort of northerly) past xmas day. This is also supported by the NAEFS Overall I expect the continuation of unsettled conditions, with on average temperatures remaining close to the norm. Given the expected continuation of a –NAO, and –AO I would not bet against colder interludes, in the form of brief northerlys, as we progress through the xmas period (something which has shown around xmas day on the latest model runs). I do not see great support for something prolonged this side of New Year. Given developments in the stratosphere I think the first half January, probably past week one, is when it could potentially come very interesting..!

A bug snowstorm? http://forum.nwstatic.co.uk//public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.png

I've had much the same experience, though I often wonder if it's because the sort of people that I like to associate with are statistically more likely than average to like snow- academics, scientists and weather enthusiasts are certainly examples of this. Many of the people that I hung out with in secondary school love to go on skiing holidays and are attracted to snow partly for that reason. My family are divided roughly 60-40 in favour of snow, but then again many of them have an above-average level of interest in the weather- not as strong as mine, but appreciation of weather certainly runs in my family.Then again, when UK media sources survey opinions on snow they tend to focus on the likes of elderly people at bus stops and business people whose livelihoods depend on lack of disruption to road transport, so a cross-section like mine helps to add an element of counter-balance.