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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/11/12 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    .. wave 2 activity showing up around the 13th November. When you consider that the precursor to this (lagged about 20 days), we were looking at twin anomalous ridges over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The output for the next 2 weeks is loaded with wave 2 activity further down the line. In particular, anomalous ridges over the Aleutians and E. Europe / Western Russia. Add to that a little potential for wave 1 activity as upper lows spin across the North Pacific sector. Bottom line, the stuff coming down the tracks at the stratospheric vortex will likely be sustained and favouring splits.
  2. 2 points
    Please tell me when it's OK to stop laughing at that.
  3. 2 points
    CPC has updated, not sure what time exactly as cannot follow the time briefings, ascending / descending orbits and if the information is in US time, unsure how this links to GMT. The 240 time frame continues to be of interest. 30/50/70/100 30 hpa seems to be the key level the Vortex holding firm. GPH - again the split is visible at 100 and 50, just there at 70. 30 maintains the core vortex. interesting to see the H over the area of tropospheric ridging at this time frame. Also found this slide about time frame leads and the feed backs between Strat and Trop, could do with C or GP helping explain this slide further. EP flux Vector (Trop) looking livelier too is that a hint of poleward at 60N.
  4. 2 points
  5. 2 points
    Also huge explosion of snow cover yesterday in the US, and hudson bay beginning to freeze.
  6. 2 points
    I am continuing to call for cold and possibly severe cold in February with onset in late January. So out of interest, I took the daily CET values in a research file and calculated daily averages for the winters with the 14 coldest Februaries to see what sort of early signals were on display. On the average, the Novembers of these winters averaged 6.3 and the Decembers 4.3, so that there was no strong signal of cold before January. Some days were considerably above normal in this period, for example 24 Nov was 6.9, and 14 Dec was 5.9 on average. The data set show a decline around New Years and the average January associated with these 14 coldest Februaries averaged 1.4 with sub-freezing averages setting in on 24 Jan. The average of the 14 cold February cases was -0.3 C. The coldest day in the series was 14 Feb at -1.7 C. Now although my model-based prediction shows a mild January followed by a cold February, this is an unusual combination and given the strength of the cold signal, I should hedge that by saying that any early mild spells could be cancelled out by later cold spells on the way towards a cold February. We would be in almost uncharted waters to see a combination like (6,0) for the first two monthly CET values. The years that came closest to this sort of reversal since the Maunder provided a couple of good examples were 1902, 1956, 1969 and 1986. January could be described as near normal rather than mild in most of these cases, but in 1969 (where Jan was 5.5) there was an extreme reversal, from 9.1 C in the week of 21-27 Jan to -1.8 in the week of 13-19 Feb. Anyone pondering these stats should of course keep in mind that all years mentioned refer to Jan and Feb, the year we are now in corresponds to the year before all the years cited. The general conclusion is that if my research model is picking up an accurate "read" on the winter, we should expect some big ups and downs and not get too discouraged about any blocking mild patterns between now and mid to late January as these are almost implied by the cold February signal. We could break into the cold early as in 1894-95, or late as in the above examples. Last winter demonstrated that a strong signal has to be blended into the "modern climate" and that even when Europe is generally in an extreme winter pattern this can have difficulty extending all the way west to some parts of the UK and certainly Ireland which almost escaped the whole episode. I have the impression from looking at analogues that this winter's severe cold in Europe might be sourced a bit further north which will help the chances of getting it further west into Britain and Ireland.
  7. 2 points
    Here's a map of the areas immediately around us with snow and what i think is depth measurement figures. WetterPool - Prognosekarten (GFS) / Wetterkarten und Animation
  8. 1 point
    If this is true, then I think we need to be asking our dear leaders to ask just what the hell they are playing at? These idiots are supposed to be advising world leaders on policy. If they know something that is going to 'shock' people then I think we need to know now, not in a years time. This is just the thing which makes people question the whole debate. Whoever has sponsored this goon needs to be asking more than a few questions. What a joke.
  9. 1 point
    Google tells me hodson bay is in the centre of Ireland so I guess not! November 11 2012 and 2011 to compare
  10. 1 point
    the thing that i see is 2010 snow in scandanavia we get cold spell no snow there in 2011 we get mild winter then snow there again this year so surely its a sign we will get blocking we just didnt get it last year when europe did cos no snow in scandanavia to aid pressure building so looks good for this winter
  11. 1 point
    As a point of order, 1) we don't actually know what the Sun is going to do over the next few cycles and 2) the LI (if anyone remembers that) did predict that temperatures wouldn't start to drop for about a decade or so. Has the Sun "done its best" yet, or is it still working on it? Here's me, CB, still banging on about the Sun...
  12. 1 point
    As much as 2012 is doing well, it seems as though it's fallen slightly behind 2011 in terms of overall area. The lack of Scandinavian snow and poorer north American/Mongolian/north-east Chinese snow cover in 2011 is offset by the cover in south-western Russia, Kazakhstan and into Ukraine and Turkey. The mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Tibet are also well covered. However, it may be that snow cover in these areas don't really matter too much for the UK, since they're so far south - it's Siberian and Scandinavian snow that's focussed on, isn't it?
  13. 1 point
    Here is a chart from 30 hPa that I have dug out from last years thread for around the same time of year. And this year: It we ignore the minor warming there are two main differences. One is obviously the polar cool core of the vortex - but the other I noticed today which made me look this up to compare. It is the warm mid to tropical temperatures throughout the rest of the stratosphere. This differential can help drive this vortex but also gives us a lot of extra fuel for the fire should a warming occur, and is perhaps indicative of building ozone resources at latitudes further south that the BDC can tap into. Lorenzo - where is the slide from for further explanation?
  14. 1 point
    https://forum.netweather.tv/blogs/entry/4502-/ My winter forecast.
  15. 1 point
    Climate change and politics go hand in hand Al Gore its making a bloody fortune out of green renewable energies ,and on this side of the World 2 ex Tory ministers are on board of the wind farm company and you wrong GW as mentioned previously most people are against renewable energy because the private energy companies use green energy as a excuse for massive price increases.
  16. 1 point
    I have a 3 year comparison here. Starting left to right with 2010 then 2011 and 2012. The changes in Scandi in 2011 compared to now and 2009 are huge. If anything I think we are fuller now than in 09' especially in North America.
  17. 1 point
    They roll it out most years when sales are low....
  18. 1 point
    Easterly propagating (phase) large Rossby planetary waves lifted by large mountain ranges or land/ocean differential heating propagate into the stratosphere given the right conditions (long wavelength (wave number 1 or 2) and weak westerly flow). They interact with the PV and dissipate create warming. I gave it a shot I hope I got it right. Please correct me. Stephane
  19. 1 point
    COLDEST WINTER FREEZE ON WAY BRITAIN can expect the first big freeze of winter by the end of the month, sending temperatures plunging to -15C. Forecasters warned last night that the entire country was set to shiver with bitterly cold winds, harsh frosts and snow, all likely to last into December. The cold snap comes as the UK endures one of the most chilly Novembers on record with warnings that a repeat of the big freeze of 2010, which saw 30 inches of snow in parts, is possible. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said a “significant cold blast†was gearing up to tear in with two weeks of “freezing misery†likely to cause travel mayhem by the end of this month. He warned that the North was in the direct firing line with several inches of snow possible, although the entire country could expect to feel the chill. “We are looking at temperatures overnight plunging as low as -10C (14F) with wind chill making -12C to -15C likely. Something on a par with the big freezes we have seen in recent years is quite possible.†Mr Powell added: “A significant big freeze is likely to arrive by the end of November. “We are on course for a savage blast bringing severe frosts which will set in for a couple of weeks, into the opening salvo of December.†The Met Office has also said temperatures could be “below average†at the end of the month with the possibility of extreme cold weather lasting into December. Age UK said that over the past 10 years there had been on average 26,700 “excess winter deaths†in England and Wales, the vast majority among older people. http://www.express.c...r-freeze-on-way
  20. 1 point
    Big snowfall in Russia today, the snowline's headed hundred's of miles south. Arctic ocean nearly fully frozen now. Ice also starting to form around the western fringes of Alaska.
  21. 1 point
  22. 1 point
    Snow holding firm in scandi just need a north easter now for some cold i reckon Ice on the Alaskan, Canadian side finally shutting up shop. Also the gfs projection of snow cover possibility for today. Immediately around us http://www.wetterpoo...gnosekarten.php
  23. 1 point
    Edit: Wrote something that didn't make sense, can i start the day again?
  24. 1 point
    Welcome guys I was just randomly googling weather sites and found this graph on the side panel of the site linked lots of other headings to play with over there as well WetterPool - Prognosekarten (GFS) / Wetterkarten und Animation Could be a dusting left in the mountains? from the snow we had not long ago? Because i notice cumbria and scotland is showing snow as well, all be it not much?
  25. 1 point
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