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Wow! There have been a few occasions in the past where we have witnessed solar tsunamis but this one is definitely one of the most prominent to date. The analysis of the cme that's en-route and it's anticipated earth effects has differing opinions between different forecasters. On NOAA's detailed nightly forcast they initially went for kp4-7 but then corrected this to kp4-9. With a prediction that wide It's going to be hard for them to be wrong. A few other space weather forecasters are following NOAA's steps in keeping the prediction wide open. Belgium space obs go for a minimum of kp7 and arrival late 11/03 or early 12/03 (they are alone in this late prediction). Noaa anticipate the cme arrival during the first half of Sunday. GSWC agrees with this window of time. My initial prediction yesterday morning was for a Sunday AM arrival time and a minimum of kp6. I doubt we will see kp9, but a 7 is possible and 8 would be very nice indeed! It all hangs on when storming occurs and peaks. If it peaks over our skies then the chance exists for visible auroral activity across all of the UK. Exactly how far south it becomes visible can be predicted with a more reliable accuracy soon after impact. Lasco c3 movie showing the earth directed cme. The noise on the imagery is caused by protons striking the sensor, it affects the ability to detect faint cme's (like this one). There are however several signatures confirming that this is a full halo event. The sunspot that has recently appeared over the limb has been numbered 1432. It was the recently responsible for a C9.7 flare. C-class flaring is likely and M-class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours. 1429 has gradually split more and more apart since it's flaring episode began several days ago. There remains potential for X-class flaring particularly from around the leading penumbra. Today's sun Several days ago I gave a brief mention to a large mid-latitude coronal hole that would be earth facing this weekend. I was well off the mark with the date on that one probably due to my attention being with the high solar activity from elsewhere. This large CH 'will' be earth facing on Tuesday and Wednesday and it's wind stream will arrive on Friday/Saturday next week. Minor-moderate storm periods are likely during the wind influence with a planetary kp of 5. Sunspot 1432 is located very close to this CH.

Yet another strong flare from 1429 at 5.30pm tonight, this one measuring M 8.4. A super bright cme can be seen departing at the moment. It will be a few more hours before any prediction can be made as to potential geomagnetic storm severity but from what's available to me it looks like a near perfect direct impact, no question about it. What I would like to try and establish is whether the core of the cme is earth directed.

Looks like another active few weeks coming up if some of the models are to be believed. Temperatures more akin to Middle to Late April and moisture returning. Could be some decent Virtual Chases over the next 2 weeks!

How do a few extra cosmic-ray particles 'enhance' earthquakes, Yamkin?? Do you have any particular mechanism in mind?

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Mar 2012 to Saturday 24 Mar 2012: Most of the UK will be dry at first with some sunny spells, before rain spreads from the west during Friday and over the weekend. Some heavy rain is possible over northwestern Britain, but by the time it reaches southeastern areas it will have eased, and southeastern areas will probably see very little rain. This general pattern will probably continue into the following week, with changeable weather bringing periods of rain to northwestern parts, whilst the southeast stays more settled and drier than normal for the time of year. Northwestern areas will probably see strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be mild or very mild at first, but will generally be average or slightly above average, although with overnight frost possible where skies clear during any quieter interludes. Updated: 1145 on Sat 10 Mar 2012 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Spring across the county Exceptionally mild http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120310

ANOTHER CME TARGETS EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%. Aurora alerts: text, phone. The same eruption that hurled the CME toward Earth also produced a monsterous tsunami of plasma on the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the shadowy but powerful wave rippling away from the blast site: The tsumani was about 100,000 km high and raced outward at 250 km/s with a total energy of about 2 million megatons of TNT. Such waves often underlie CMEs like the one en route to Earth now. Animated forecast tracks show that the CME will also hit the Mars Science Lab (MSL) spacecraft on March 12th followed by Mars itself on March 13th. Mars rover Curiosity onboard MSL might get some as the cloud passes by.

What a lovely climate you have NthNSW- bar the excessive humidity, but I guess this does help storms-- I'd love the amount of warm, sunny days you have with temps in the late 20's! Thanks to you and styx for the thread though- really interesting!