Leaderboard

Actually, when I mentioned charging batteries I was refering to the camera batteries. Weather forecast is not good though so I doubt if there will much in the way of a photo op for me. I really don't buy any of this doomsday stuff. I'm sure my little gas camping cooker will work long enough to make a fresh brew even if the lights do go out. As for a night without soaps on TV or mobile phones . . . bliss! Now, if the big one (estimated X26 or thereby) that blasted off a few years ago was a direct hit on Earth then there might have been some real damage to satelites but we now have quite a bit of redundancy above our heads so I doubt if there would be a long term problem. Likewise with the power grids. Inconvenience yes but TEOTWAWKI? No way!

The information on my last post with regards to UK latitude aurora potential has changed a little bit now! Based on current conditions, southern regions of the UK are potentially back in the fold again as a result of the IMF more than doubling in strength at 19:20. We have a strong positive Bz in correlation with the increased IMF strength but should any sustained period of southward magnetic orientation (-Bz) occur will now have enough energy to draw the aurora even further south. I'll repost this little Bz graph as we're on a new page, bear in mind that you have a 30 minute lead time during periods of -Bz. Link to UK magnetomer http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ Simple guide to using the magnetometer for spotting aurora. http://forum.netweat...28#entry2138328 Ace graph showing IMF http://www.swpc.noaa..._SWEPAM_2h.html

Just a quick pic of the sun's face at around 1.45pm today. Hard to miss 1429/1430/1428

Latest NMM hi res cloudcover for midnight tonight:

At least Yahoo News is not painting a doomsday scenario with this realistic and useful news item on this "potentia' event. A refreshing change from some of the Armagedon hype by the media and some over excited thread postings. http://uk.news.yahoo...ern-lights.html.

Not an easy one to answer. The general consensus is +-1hour around midnight as this is the time (in general) when the aural oval is at its most southerly extent in the Northern hemisphere. However, the timing of a CME's arrival is critical and if there is al local substorm this can further complicate matters. At my lat. I've been directly under a full corona and the display was mindblowing. The real surprise was this happend about 7.00pm not long after it got realy dark. The storm subsided but conditions got better around midnight and there was another fantastic, very dynamic pulsing show about 2.00am. The short answer is, keep looking because local conditions and CME arrivals vary and a substorm can happen at virtually any time. Of course, everything is dependant on good viewing conditions.

Fresh data on the current cme passage has come through so we can paint a fuller picture of what's passing us. Peak mag field strength: 40nT Peak wind speed: 830km/s Peak wind density: 35 p/cm3 It's likely that the current solar wind speed is between 680 and 700km/s, also to note is the rapid decay of the IMF and wind density despite wind speed remaining high. Also that pesky Bz has persisted northward (positive) for most of the storm up to now, we have seen one period of neutral Bz that lasted around one hour and helped intensify geomagnetic storming, and two brief periods of negative Bz lasting less than 20 minutes that contributed to sub-storm activity. If geomagnetic conditions persist at current levels during the coming hours, then aurora may be visible as far south as 55N, particularly after periods of neutral Bz are observed on Ace. If we manage to see any brief periods of negative Bz on Ace this evening then aurora may become visible down to 54N during the resultant sub-storm activity. Any sustained periods of -Bz (above 30 minutes) this evening and this opportunity will extend southward and aurora may be visible from 53N. I put the chances of seeing NL from the far south of England at just 20% this evening. This is based on current conditions, the downgrading of wind speed as well as low density and weak IMF. How I got 1150km/s earlier today I don't know, my maths isn't the best but it still sounds right... travelling 950,000 miles in 21 minutes, converted to km/s. I'm sure the answer I got was around 1150km/s. Edit: to add small widget showing Bz data from the Ace satellite, this should update every minute or two.

In the stlye of Prof B Cox, on this arrival of the CME Material, what on micro physics level is passing through each and everyones bodies just now..

Temperatures rising Increasingly sunny http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120308

You are very welcome Polar Maritime. I have built up my survival supplies over a year now where budget permits and I too have got my batteries on charge right now. Croydon council have their emergency preparedness plans in place and are being briefed with up-to-date bulletins. I'm sure other authorities across UK are prepared or preparing.