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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/02/12 in all areas

  1. Yes I agree with that. If the Met O changed the outlook today to a colder, wintry outlook and then the model output flipped back to what it was showing yesterday they would look rather silly. If I was responsible for the forecasts I would prefer to wait a few more runs before adjusting the forecast accordingly.P.S John H. I wish I had a pound for every time you have posted that you're an ex Met O professional forecaster. I wouldn't have to do the Lotto and would probably be living in Canada or Alaska by now. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png
    3 points
  2. Here's the BBC weather forecasts for the March 2001 snow event including some news reporting of it.
    2 points
  3. Don't often hear this warning given of exceptionally severe winter weather. Not happened around this neck of the woods, we got a little bit of snow but it was pretty much a non event. Lot different further north though! The Countryfile forecast had the low further south with the snow but it quickly changed to further north.
    1 point
  4. After a beautiful start to May 1997 with glorious warm sunshine, it went belly-up during Bank Holiday Monday and wintry weather returns
    1 point
  5. I had until recently tried not to comment on their outputs, 6-15 or 16-30 day but seeing as they, in my view, take some unfair stick, I try to give a viewpoint from another perspective.To me looking at what little input we see compared to what they have, the change suggested for later February into March seems a sensible resume of what is available. My only clue as to what the start of March may hold is the 30mb temperature. Like I've posted I have very little actual events to back this up but I suspect that the blocking is going to ease away throug this month which could be why they indicate a more unsettled theme developing and less cold than currently. The fact that the 500mb anomaly charts are becoming less consistent also lends support to not backing the blocking and cold holding on beyond the next week or so. Its a funny old world is meteorology and it may well prove this post as quite laughable in 7-10 days time. If so I'll be there to hold my hand up as always to say-ok got it wrong. Would that more on here did the same.
    1 point
  6. I can completely understand that forecast given the signals we were seeing sunday/yesterday. If today's/tomorows output can continue in the same fashion as overnight, I would expect a colder perhaps snowier outlook come there next update.
    1 point
  7. Seems to go against the ECM 32 dayer which is strange. No mention of the 'S' whord at all now ?! Let see if they flip back to cold tommorow? UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2012: This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected. Updated: 1211 on Tue 7 Feb 2012 Printable view days 1 to 30
    1 point
  8. UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 21 Feb 2012: Although the southeast may start cold, temperatures through this period in the southeast should be markedly less cold than recent days, although the risk of overnight frosts will still be present. Otherwise many southern and central areas should start fairly settled, although it may be rather cloudy. Further north it will be more unsettled, with mild and wet conditions separated by clearer and colder weather with some wintry showers. As February progresses the more unsettled conditions look likely to become dominant across the country, with the risk of some very windy days. However, it it could take some time to reach the far south, with the best of any drier and settled conditions here, but also a higher risk of overnight frosts. Updated: 1212 on Tue 7 Feb 2012 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
    1 point
  9. I have made my comment about this in the model thread as the 16-30 day area. Not impressed as an ex senior forecaster with them.
    1 point
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