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With the models under some degree of scrutiny I always forget which has higher resolution here and there and at what time frames. After some digging around put this together and hope it is some use as a point of reference, this is not my area of expertise so please edit, add to, correct, grow etc etc Data for numerical weather prediction is provided by observations from satellites, from the ground (both human and from automatic weather stations), from buoys at sea, radar, radiosonde weather baloons,, wind profilers, commercial aircraft and a background field from previous model runs. The gist of this is shown by this handy pic from a non-blacked out Wikipedia and ensembles depicted from UKMO website. UKMO Unified Model - Global Model 25Km Resolution 70 Vertical Levels 144 Hours UKMO North Atlantic and European Model NAE 12Km Resolution 70 Vertical Levels 48 Hours UKMO - Other 1.5km Resolution UK 70 Vertical Levels 36 Hours 4Km Resolution Surrounding Areas 　 　 ECM / IFS 16 /31km? unsure.. Operational / Deterministic run is Twice Hortizontal Resolution of Ensembles 240 Hours Operational 60 Vertical Levels Ensembles 40 Vertical Levels 51 member Ensemble suite http://www.ecmwf.int...techniques.html 　 GFS 35 km / 64 vertical layers High Resolution runs to 192 Hours / 7 days - every 3 hrs 70 km / 64 vertical layers Lower Resolution runs from 192 - 384 Hrs - every 12th hr 22 Ensemble Suite 9 including Control / Operational GEFS using current operational GFS -increase in horizontal resolution from 70 km to 55 km (T254) for 0-192 h, and 70 km (T190) for 192-394 hours -increase in vertical resolution from 28 to 42 layers for 0-384 hours http://www.emc.ncep..../GEFS/mconf.php

Works out at 865km/s methinks. CME hit at around 3pm today. http://spaceweather.com/

Yup and it isn't bouncing back so quickly this time, could be a good sign. (ever the optimist I am!) For anyone unsure what we are talking about, the graph below containing Ace data should help. Ignore everything except the red line, this line represents the Bz component of the magnetic field and is one hour upwind from earth so a little advanced warning. When Bz readings are above zero they are known as positive or northward, below zero is known as negative or southward. A southward Bz recorded at Ace normally results in a period where magnetic reconnection at earth between our magnetic field and the field of the solar wind is more likely. The door is opened and protons/electrons come flooding in causing magnetometers to show a decrease in the field strength and sparking aurora further south than usual. This graph updates every few minutes, click to view. If the skies were clearer here in Ayrshire I would be heading out by now as I'm expecting an aurora viewing opportunity very soon.

http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/ saw this on another forum abisko aurora cam

Too early to say, I would make sure the camera batteries are charging though. No doubt this is a powerful cme, if the Bz did turn southward/negative (which it easily could at any point) then storming at kp6-8 would almost certainly be the result. This geomagnetic storm should last right through this evening, it will take twists and turns as the night wears on. Still trying to work out the cme arrival speed, would 900km/s be close (maths was never my best subject!) 1 million miles in 31 minutes = roughly 2 million mph speed or 3.2 million kmh or 900km/s ???

Hi John. There is a huge difference between questioning the science and rubbishing the science and those that question the science are still tarred with the same brush as those who rubbish it. The climate models are throwing out questionable data at times and there are a million and one excuses why they get it wrong. Solar influence is one such mechanism that we have modelled wrongly for years and then there is the rounding of figures which can cause huge amounts of differences in the output. These have been ignored in the past by people who wouldn't accept they were wrong but yet claimed "the science was settled". When this happens, is there any wonder why there is so much scepticism?

John Mason, on 23 January 2012 - 13:21 , said: Hi all, Just dropping by to say hello to Vill and to suggest that he might enjoy reading the following recent guest-post on SkS, by Kate from Climatesight: http://www.skeptical...odels-work.html Cheers - John Vill said: "thanks John, I guess now that you have tracked me down we can say that I have been Dev'd again right!" My advice is to follow the link I provided, because it would help you to understand climate models, which you clearly do not, having confused them with economic models, which are far more fail-prone because, despite its myriad complexities, the climate is rather more straightforward than a bunch of panicking financiers! I've known you are on here for ages, but thought I might be able to offer some guidance that would help you see the difference in computer models as developed for completely different situations - climatology vs. economics. Hence posting the link to where I mostly hang out these days, with those scurrilous Antipodean pro-science types! I rather like them because the arena is - mostly - science. Cheers - John