0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7)
Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible...
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15)
The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up.
Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?!
Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.