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Keeping abreast of the models, here’s a notable pair of ECM means, in near perfect hemispheric symmetry around day 9 / 10, persistent heights reinforcing the cleavage. The sheer indecision of it all - sure to be amongst the abiding mam…oops, memories of spring 2024.

Little point ducking the issue. A quacking weekend in store… 0z ECM op for day 4, as another low pressure system finds us with impressive timing! Further ahead, some more positive signs - once we start seeing this type of “super-meridional” pattern - ambitious building of heights up through the Atlantic and more spectacularly, through all the S’s - Sahara-Sweden-Svalbard-Siberia-Seguam like here at day 6 on the 0z ECM op… …it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing the trough becoming over-extended with the cutting off of the low at the base of the trough, it sinking south, the heights linking up through the UK and Ireland like here at day 8… Yes, add Skegness and Sandymount to your list, spectacular super-meridional S thing! After that, a weaker version of the trough tries to reassert itself from the northwest, which the GFS op has been keenest on, though looking at the 0z ensemble mean, the pressure never really falls away again, a steady rise to a respectable 1020mb for Birmingham by the end of week 2… …which is consistent with the ECM charts and the pincer movement of heights weakening the polar trough at its stem - so though nothing wall to wall by any means, the chance of a somewhat more promising setup emerging into early May. I’ll post again around then. All the best.

It looks like there will be snow on Saturday, in my area and in part of the rest of Finland. Next week more snow or sleet is perhaps coming, this time of the year, it is not necessary anymore. Hoping that Summer months June/July is something like showing reanalysis, not like lastest summers. Sorry My bad english.

I have to say, I am seeing very little of hope of a substantial warm up in any of the models. Maybe something on ECM clusters 2 and 3 in the T192-T240 timeframe: But otherwise the pieces aren’t in the right place, and that doesn’t look like changing on the T264+: Maybe clusters 3 and 4 show an inkling of setting in the region of the UK. What we can say, is that the outlook is not wall to wall unsettled, like the earlier part of spring which is a pyrrhic victory, I suppose. At this time of year, I am usually on the lookout for signs of any self-reinforcing pattern setting up with an eye to summer, but no signs of that at all. First steps would need to be a build of some sort of heat over the near continent of which there is absolutely no sign, GFS 0z T360, for example: Meanwhile, above us the final warming in the stratosphere looms, in a few days on GFS 0z: The change to easterlies as shown (blue) on the left plot at 10 hPa 60N has been very clearly advertised for a while now, but there is no big driver to affect our weather with this, that (from the SSW) petered out a couple of weeks ago, and the strat is drifting now into summer mode as the vortex disappears. So one hopes the weaker drivers of summer edge the tropospheric patterns to something more favourable in due course, but for now the wait continues…

Got a pleasant shock when by chance I spotted this tawny owl just a few feet away from me this morning. I nearly walked passed it

Been a better day so far for sunshine than yesterday, max 13.3°C, doesn't look like the Lake District did so well. Stunning walk, the canal was really busy with walkers, everybody enjoying a dry Sunday. Proper spaceship Lenticulars too.

Good to see the ensembles trending towards something warmer. There has been a gradual trend towards less cool air next week as well. Ultimately though we need a dry couple of weeks now- regardless of the temperatures.

We’ve been quite lucky this morning, it has been absolutely beautiful, steadily warming up from a -1.2 degrees frost around dawn, 1026mb and no wind. April mornings don’t come much better. A very reasonable looking few days ahead, through the weekend and into early next week, the 0z EPS chart for next Monday morning at day 4 is a cracker. The MSLP chart shows a high pressure of 1036mb over the UK and Ireland, part of a “bar” of higher pressure extending through to the Siberian Arctic. But make the most of it! Even with this setup, though it is nigh impossible for our high to be shifted east by anything off the Atlantic, it instead gets undermined by trough development to the east. There were good hints of this in the models yesterday, and though still a fair way off, the subtle hints of yesterday for day 10 have grown into clear suggestions today for day 9, the trough notably deeper and further west. This is the kind of evolution I love to see, not necessarily for the weather it will bring, but for the phenomenon itself. The 0z ECM op at days 6-10 shows the potential, the Scandinavian trough spawning a little low pressure system running down through the Norwegian Sea, joining with another more active one coming out of Greenland and sweeping down through Iceland… …the two merging and swivelling down into the UK and Ireland, with the cold air reasserting itself in the process. With the seasonal timing, probably not at all welcome, though I keep the faith that one of these years we’ll get this kind of thing a couple of months earlier and enjoy it a lot more. As it stands in the current modelling, it’s a spring ambush!

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

Imagine being someone who is overjoyed by grey & wet! Would it be something like this? Dean Gray, the drizzle lover- "This has been the BEST 14 months I have ever lived through on this planet!!!! This stunning spell that started in March 2023 with those utterly stunning grey slate skies & that tantalising rain hammering against my skin for days on end has left me in somewhat of a euphoric daze. We had a disgusting blip late May & June 2023 with that absolutely vile sunshine & worryingly dry conditions that could have brought forward extinction of the human race but I decided to take matters into my own hands. I drew a pentagram, got some candles, 100 dead Spring rabbits & a photo of the sun with a knife stomped through it on a dead tree trunk. I performed this sacrifice to Beelzebub & in return I begged him for the UK weather to be like March 2023 forever!!!" "My wish was granted. One of the greatest months in UK Summer history occurred with the utterly perfect July 2023 & August, despite a few annoying blips of filthy sun mid month, kept a mainly dull theme. The 1st half of September was absolutely unacceptable though & I thundered back over to Beelzebub in a hurricane of rage & demanded a return to the weather I WANT. ITS ALL ABOUT ME I screamed in his face. He told me I need to up my sacrifice & so Immediately I unclenched my fists & rushed off to gather the items for my next sacrifice. Upon digging up my expired grandparents & placing them onto the tree trunk surrounded once again by the pentagram & candles, topped with the sun photo, this time with FIVE knives through it, I anticipated my desire to come true." "The weather changed almost immediately after mid month & then I spat out my caramel latte when a few days of 25c & sun appeared in early October....REALLY!!!!!! I charged back over to Beelzebub but he stopped me in panic & exclaimed that the man over there was upset at the poor weather & also started a sacrifice to him & of course I ahem...ended his journey on earth there & then. Ever since, I've had it all my way hahahahaha. Grey, wet, grey, wet, grey, wet, it's all because of me! 2023 was meant to be the start of a Mediterranean climate in the UK but I alone managed to change it to a slightly warmer version of the Faroe Islands!!!" "Nowadays I just dance in the streets in my red lingerie in a blur of complete euphoric bliss just knowing, this is our climate forever now! If anyone even dares go to Beelzebub with a sacrifice to change things, there will be dire, DIRE consequences. You have been warned. I love my life!" Yes I was bored & yes I am weird

Lovely day, lots of sunshine. Had another walk, canal beautiful, made a brew by some classic cars , could feel the warmth of the sun tingling my face, UV levels increasing. A pleasant evening ahead here.

Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally. As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale. Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP . Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter. One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

We all know what will win out instead....

ANYWEATHER If the above synoptics verify I think many will be rating April 2024 as the poorest since 2012. Despite the warmth of the first 2 weeks it was combined with cloud and rain. 2021 though was very cold was also very dry and sunny. The models are showing no sustained settled spell, by mid week we see a pincer attack - low heights to the NE merging with the atlantic trough to the NW, end product low heights over the UK, cool and wet conditions. Not clear how things may develop as we approach May, generally a very changeable outlook at a time of year which is often associated with not very changeable conditions, settled weather fans have drawn a short straw since June by and large.

Looks like a trend on GFS for temperatures to return back closer to average by the end of the month after a cooler than average period. Still no sign at this stage of an incoming heatwave. At the surface, we do see a warming trend through the mid point of the run but it's also accompanied by more rain. Looks like a bit of a trade off - we get mild but not especially warm weather back, but in return it comes with a greater risk of rain. Fortunately most runs are not excessively wet, though.

Addicks Fan 1981 I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tams got sick of having her missives unfairly dissected, if not ridiculed; not by you, of course, but by those who should know better.

Weakest warm front I've known, delivering sunshine and high cloud, puzzled... answers why this is happening?

It's a lot better outside today than was originally forecast with a high of 13'c, and thankfully the cold winds from the north have somewhat abated.

Its stayed dry so far here, cloudy but not overcast and a temp peak 13.5 degrees. There is precipitation to the North but it is falling apart and we might just see a very brief smatter. Overall a very fine weekend, nothing special, but after months of dull wet weather it feels far more seasonal.

It certainly wakes you up outside. Lovely clear cloudless sunrise, and a layer to scrape off the car. Make the most of it, enjoy the day.

raz.org.rain don’t be scared. “Expect” and “project” Even if it happens, there’s nothing you can do about it, other than vote for Greta Thunberg, whose ideas would create as many problems as they solve. Just try to enjoy life as best you can.

Wet during the day with the sun finally making an appearance at teatime. Light winds and max of 9c. Showers thereafter, but mixed with a low sun some stunning rainbows as a result (taken in Alford)... Farmers now starting to plough fields in earnest, normally a job completed well before now - a testament to what seems like incessant wet weather since last autumn.

Want to start by revisiting the above statement from January, there can often be discrepancies between the various Meteorological Agencies particularly regarding ENSO statuses but we have BOM first to declare ENSO Neutral. Per my recent post here I discussed that the Super El Ninò Event had transitioned into more of a West Based Event, the latest ENSO discussion from NOAA agrees and gives further info https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf We'll have to await JMA and NOAA anouncing ENSO Neutral conditions and personally I dont get involved in debates a la Twitter last year with many arguing we weren't in an El Ninò though as I have discussed prior no 2 ENSO events behave indentically though there are common characteristics of each ENSO, and there can be lag in the Oceanic > Atmospheric 'coupling'. Newest ENSO outlooks from Met Office suggest ENSO Neutral heading into May with the oncoming La Nina conditions intensifying in the 1 & 2 Regions quite fast. Starting to see more details to add to some of my recent posts. Looking in more detail, the most significant developments upcoming, as the cyclonic system discussed here Merges with a cut off low in Northwest America this will link to the Tropospheric Vortex which is modelled to greatly intensify with indication potentially record breaking low pressure into Canada. Part of the MJO Indian Ocean > Maritimes feedback in an El Ninò in April as posted prior As shown in my recent post we continue to see the Atlantic Ridge in an El Ninò setup with another cold plunge during the next few days. Following on we have the high pressure moving into Ireland and the UK as mentioned prior plus as the Tropospheric Vortex developments occur in Canada this paired to the Negative PNA will see a high descending from West Canada across America with a new Arctic air outbreak, a relatively common pattern of the last few months which I've covered in the global thread. This will bring significantly below average temperatures. During the latter stage of April week 3 through April week 4 the Atlantic and Ireland-UK high will begin to take on the MJO and PNA feedback of blocking to our Northeast > Scandinavia and Russia, this will also retrograde into Iceland and Greenland as discussed prior with a good representation of many of the major European weather regimes / teleconnective feedback. Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance LINK.SPRINGER.COM Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like... Nothing surprising here factoring in recent MJO progression with an ongoing probable further feedback of multiple Stratospheric > Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, *though the current zonal winds are above average. Overall a prolonged period with below average temperatures will continue with some significant anomalies across Europe in particular, we then look during April week 4 as the High retrograde gets going for these below average conditions to extend into the UK > Ireland. Thanks for reading. KW

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

It turned out okay in the end, still cool & breezy with some light showers across the Eastern Moors when I was having a short wander around the Bronze-Age relics at Barbrook but this Western side of the Peak District has gotten more of the sunshine for the day.

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.

Not very often we see a low pressure system romp so triumphantly west from Scandinavia through the UK and Ireland to the Atlantic, as here on the 12z UKMO but there are some very intricate handovers of pockets of low heights that drive the whole process and give it some considerable elegance. The first pocket drops south to join the Scandinavian low at day 2, deepening it. The second drops out of the trough at the tip of Greenland at day 3, joining the melee at day 4 and drawing the system west over the UK and Ireland for the weekend. Thanks A third pocket drops southeast via the same route at day 6, pulling the system west out over the Atlantic. Looks like an “atmospheric” weekend awaits to round off this very mixed April, ripe for savoury evening treats washed down with a sumptuous glass or three of your favourite ale or wine. The late spring fitness effort can wait until some suitable conditions are laid on. And from there, let’s grab all the potential silver linings. Though not seemingly immediately on offer, there are at least some emerging signs that this remarkable retrogression, as a part of wider adjustments occurring within the generally very static hemispheric pattern, might eventually lead to sufficiently consistent heights building over the near continent to bring us a better chance of some warmer interludes as May progresses.

One of those occasions which is most likely to occur in the second half of Spring than any other time of year, when much of Cumbria sees the best English conditions, Wales, N Ireland and West Scotland often the same. Thanks to the influence of high pressure to the west, we received virtually nil traces of rain from the warm front, it was all to our east, and today we have sat in a dry spot, albeit cloudy, but also quite bright, high level cloud, no wind and pleasant temps close to 14 degrees. Always say mid April to late June best time to visit Lake District!

So much better than it looked on the forecast 48 hrs ago. Barely a cloud in the sky, apart from those mentioned above. Little breeze, so feeling warm in the sun whilst out walking the dog. There's very little competition, but the best weekend for weather so far this year.

A great view of the lenticular clouds over Winter Hill from Pennington Flash.

Are we ever going to have two sunny days one after the other again? Asking for a friend.

Managed to catch the last glimpse of Comet 12P Pons brooks while on holiday despite the sunset light. The next big comet will be Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) if it doesn’t disintegrate.

Local trudge. Salwick. More like the Norfolk Broads. Half decent when Sun broke.

This high pressure then..... It's all a cruel joke. Raining here, cold, miserable. I didn't think 2024 could be worse than 2023 but so far it's shaping up to be.

If you’re talking to me at least @ me thanks. In what way I have done that? All I’m saying temperatures are indicated to be well below average for late April, no one has mention snow and freezing temperatures and what can be expected at this time of year. You said about me being antagonistic, I think you should look at yourself, all you do is purposely try to undermine messaging, if anything cool is mentioned, it’s a repeated pattern from you. It’s as if it upsets you personally, I find it very odd it is just the weather.

Keldas. Glenridding Yearly visit to see the Bluebells. But we’re a week or so too early The Legendary Lung buster start up to Helvellyn. If you know you know. For a change we descended. Classic Grizedale. Memories of Nethermost Pike ahead in full winter conditions many a time. St Sunday to the left. Chill N NE breeze. Decent in The Sun when it broke. A good day.

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7) Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible... 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15) The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up. Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?! Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.

Stunning while waiting for my flight to Gatwick

Just got back from 10 days of glorious warm sunshine in Fuerteventura, and the spring is just as wretched as it was before. Comfortably the worst spring I've ever experienced. 6C and drizzle barely a week from May is appalling.

richie3846 shows just how dreadful these last 18 months have been for people to say that 7 degrees and drizzle can be considered as 'not too bad'. It's late April for crying out loud, it's completely dismal and depressing.

Some glimmers of hope on the GFS this morning for the start of May: The Azores high ridging in to the south, with a more traditional pattern being set up with low pressure anchored to the NW. However, the ECM looks a fair bit different:

A much better day and weekend than I was expecting, especially this far east. coolish under the cloud first thing today but once the sun got to work it felt warm and the sunshine has been just about constant since. still cool in the shade though but it was nice sat having a pint at the side of the canal at Sowerby Bridge when we went over the see daughter and family. probably back to the usual conditions tomorrow and not looking very good for the rest of the week but after the absolute dross over the winter months, it was nice to get a couple of decent, if not spectacular days coinciding with the weekend.

It's turned out to be a really decent weekend here. Plenty of sunshine both yesterday and today. The airmass is cool, but it's been pleasant in the sun both days.

Where has the dry weekend gone Its pouring here this morning Got grass seed sown yesterday so some progress.

Got a nice thundery summer skies here Some sunshine but darkness within the distance

Yuk Yuk and more Yuk what a depressing outlook more rain and low temperatures.

I scraped a bit of ice off the windscreen going to work yesterday morning and looking at the bathroom window, I’ll be doing the same again today. probably not an issue tomorrow though as the wipers will no doubt be clearing the last of the rain that looks like ruining the second half of today before hopefully a dry couple of days coincides with the weekend. Unfortunately it’s not looking like sunny dry though.