Leaderboard

In other news; I have three hedgehogs in my garden right now. One large, two small.. ish.

Hawesy very similar here though a bit more cloud this evening. Down by the river this afternoon.

A decent day, especially by the poor standards of this month. Sunny spells and pleasant enough in the sun. Minimum was 0c, max 12c.

TwisterGirl81 'though to not see a wisp of cloud somewhere in this country for a whole DAY would take a small miracle' I've just corrected your typo

Arctic day up temps mostly around 5-7C but very cold northerly biting. In the few sunny intervals felt nice enough out of the wind. Managed first cut of grass albeit in thick coat and hat. Quite happen with hitter. Old in the winter but this constant cold is getting tad wearing. Was going to say at least it’s dry but I hear rain now on the roof window…

Cloudy morning, mainly sunny afternoon which combined with light winds felt very nice even though max today was 10.5c. Showers of rain this evening and 5c, Met sticking to their guns all day that these showers will turn sleety around dawn. If it wasn't the fact that its useable light outside until 21:30 now, you'd think it was still mid March...

If only it was ..... On this occasion its a warm easterly ..

A bit of rain recently 0.4 mm from another little feature that WRF picked up well.

2.9c raining ️ so much for dry until Sunday oh well… how are we still in this rut? picked up a bug in Londonford mixed with hay Fever lovely jubbly At least managed a good walk yesterday, lots of gardening and odd jobs sorted.. including stopping crows nesting in loft through broken vent cover… by crawling in loft space and blocking vent to 5cm

Heard the rain on the dormer roof when I got up this morning and although it looks to have passed through now, it’s left everything damp so nowhere near as good a start to yesterday and Tuesday. doesn’t look like a bad day coming up though, maybe a few showers but compared to the conditions we’ve endured for much of this spring, passable. just need the warmer air to push up ahead of Saturdays system and for that to remain to our south, then we may manage to get a half decent few days.

Mapantz aww hope you leave some treats for them

18z NAM pretty much the same as the 12z just an absolutely classic look for a significant tornado outbreak across Kansas and Oklahoma. Soundings from Oklahoma Soundings from Kansas Only one major fail mode is really possible with this kind of setup, that being morning convection. Lets see what our cams show over the next 3 days. Here's the area forecast discussion from the national weather services local office in Wichita, Kansas "Saturday has the potential to bring significant severe weather to the area. Of course there is plenty of time for the forecast to change and there does remain some degree of uncertainty particularly in storm mode. A sfc low in the vicinity of SW KS is progged to deepen and move east/northeast potentially around central/south central KS by peak heating. Moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg) will combine with strong flow (60kts+ bulks shear), nicely curved hodographs/strong LL SRH, and strong 3CAPE (200j/kg). Any storm that can remain discrete or even semi-discrete in this type of environment will pose significant hazards from strong to potentially violent tornadoes, large to very large (2-3+ inch) hail, and damaging wind gusts." Wonder if a day 3 moderate will be issued, maybe not cause of morning convection but still a possibility.

Stunning while waiting for my flight to Gatwick

55.0 hrs of sunshine here in the first 24 days of April, 56% of average. It's still possible it could be the dullest April on record ( since 2000) as April 2000 recorded 75.5 hrs and currently holds the record.

B87 looks like a big problem is even the months with surplus sun also had surplus rainfall, and the big 2 (July and August) were both low on sun and high on rain. There’s been no real respite even in the supposedly better months we had. And yeah this year is somehow worse so far because we haven’t even had February to help (completely misplaced dry month anyway)! I’m usually such an optimist so seeing that backs up my currently opposing sentiments hahaha

Yes, ground slightly damp. Temp down to 1.8°C in the night. Currently 3.3°C .

They really should release the actual figures. The raw numbers that are displayed on their own website plus others like meteociel and weather online are wrong and misleading. Still don’t understand why they don’t, considering they show the actual ranges on the anomaly maps.

B87 that figure would get your sunshine stats back on the right track though to not see a wisp of cloud somewhere in this country for a whole month would take a small miracle though I’m surprised it hasn’t happened or that the sunshine monthly record has stood for over a century, crazy, must be one of the oldest records yet to fall? I thought this country was slowly meant to be getting sunnier

I recorded 304 hours of sunshine in May 2020. That's very close to what I have recorded so far this year.

danm I got the 2006-2020 corrected values from the Met Office, then looked at the average correction for each month in that time period. The method I use now probably isn't 100% accurate, but it always matches up with the monthly sunshine maps that use the true values. To get a good idea of the true value, multiply the raw values by the following numbers (other stations might have different conversion factors): Jan: 1.076 Feb: 1.080 Mar: 1.080 Apr: 1.090 May: 1.124 Jun: 1.141 Jul: 1.129 Aug: 1.122 Sep: 1.099 Oct: 1.091 Nov: 1.077 Dec: 1.068 CS0044355 Heathrow Monthly Sun Hours 2006-2020 (002) (1)-1.xlsx

richie3846 probably in the 96% range like us in Exeter…not sure why met office do the white shading for 95% - 105% sunshine amounts? I’m all for being optimistic but it’s either below average, average or above, it’s misleading

WYorksWeather I agree with @summer blizzardon this to be honest with you. Hovmoller plots are probably a better proxy to look at than ensembles. We need to be careful with what we use and interpret. if we can get some westerly interia going then it shouldn't be too bad at all. I also supported the very sensible post by @Mike Pooleearlier as well and think that clusters should never be dismissed. I feel also that the ECMWF 0Z ensemble mean was encouraging today, not necessarily for heatwaves but shall we say for a bit of a drying trend with a mid Atlantic ridge.

Excellent as that would mean I will only be 0.1C out with my guess. Earlier in the month, it was looking like I could be amiss by as much as 2C!

WYorksWeather The thing is with "redeeming" the year, there's no "making up for lost time" so to speak. It'll be well into May before anything shifts properly, and there's no guarantee it even will, tbh. Regardless of what pans out over summer and autumn this year, it won't change the fact that the first third of the entire year was woefully dull, wet and uninspiring. It's a bit like summer 2023, which was near-universally perceived as a very poor summer season despite the very sunny and dry June, because the proceeding 6-7 weeks were absolutely rotten. So, for me, it's less a case of "writing the year off", but moreso recognising the reality that even a 'perfect' rest of the year will not erase how poor this winter and spring have been, and as such, the year will only ever be able to come out as, say, a 6/10 overall at best.

We had a hail shower about 8.15 as i was driving to work, short and sharp, snow/sleet showers up at cropton forest first thing according to reports, it really needs to warm up, log burner lit again tonight with it being 2°c outside currently.

mike57 Yes, that's what I heard. We had a hail storm on the moors at 9am and it then stayed dry but bitterly cold until 3pm when it unexpectedly rained really hard. The sun came out later and it has actually been a nice evening, with the cold wind dropping right off on the NY coast. Alas, it seems we may be getting showers from a feature from the North Sea early tomorrow which may stick around until late morning. I do not normally say it, but I am actually glad that I shall be heading back to Cheshire later tomorrow.

carinthian now that is some snow, not the piddling amounts we have to put up with. It’s bad enough when wagon wheels and mars bars are affected by shrinkflation but these days it’s even snowfall.

*Stormforce~beka* the grey skies act as an illuminator Currently finished the monthly percentages of rainfall since last January….just awful is all I can say. Just about to start sunshine percentages then I will post my findings for Exeter

Iceaxecrampon I know Keldas well, the bluebells are a treat. I remember visiting them in mid May 2020, north slopes and they were in bloom, whereas they were barely out same time 2021. Another fine day here, turning into a decent dry spell in the Lake District and we look best placed to see least rain in England in days ahead..As said this is the lakeland dry season, all quite normal to see eastern and south parts plagued by cloud this time of year whilst we bask in sunshine. Chilly frosty nights at present.

WillinGlossop Yes, its an impressive covering for so late but not a great fan of snowfall at this time of year. Just want some warm sunshine now but so much more appealing is a continental climate with its more extreme variety of weather. Hope you lot get some decent warmth and sunshine soon ? C

Keldas. Glenridding Yearly visit to see the Bluebells. But we’re a week or so too early The Legendary Lung buster start up to Helvellyn. If you know you know. For a change we descended. Classic Grizedale. Memories of Nethermost Pike ahead in full winter conditions many a time. St Sunday to the left. Chill N NE breeze. Decent in The Sun when it broke. A good day.

NCAR updraft helicity for sat, Kansas and Oklahoma stands out with Kansas having a less discrete mode. Oklahoma has 2 prominent discrete storm tracks. As posted by @Eagle Eye the 12z NAM has a very, very potent environment, we'll see if the trend sticks but sat could genuinely be the highest end threat the plains has had for many years. Soundings from Oklahoma Soundings from Kansas

Ben Sainsbury Me too man! Should've gone now. Oh well, hopefully I can get something from May 6-14!

Saturday with a positively tilted trough ejecting across the southern parts of the great plains with a full on dryline and with 65°F+ dewpoint. Very much a potentially classic setup here, but there's still a lot that could go wrong. That notch in Northern Kansas would probably be the safest bet, but you'd typically chase Oklahoma on a plains day given previous events, even one last year when the plains wasn't that active if I remember correctly. Northern Kansas Oklahoma

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7) Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible... 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15) The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up. Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?! Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.

Dont get me wrong Saturday still has fail modes, especially regarding morning convection but this 500mb chart could seriously be in a meteorology textbook page for what a significant tornado outbreak trough in the plains looks like. Strong belt of flow rounding the base and ejecting into the area at peak heating, negative tilt, divergence aloft. Recent trends have slightly slowed the trough ejection and further amplified the jetstreak. This is important, a faster ejection=less time between morning convection and our main event. Comparing past significant tornado events with this type of trough ejection the one that sticks out to me as looking the most similar is May 24th 2011, will we reach that ceiling? Im not convinced at the moment but the potential is there. Nam comes into range in about 2 hours interesting to see what it shows. Two other failure modes i can think of are lingering cloud cover and storms firing too early to make use of LLJ, also not 100% with lapse rates but lets see what CAMS do. CSU very potent though Ben Sainsbury I still think late may and early june has very good potential, big cape storms that only require a gust of wind to surge the RFD and drop a photogenic cone. Good luck out there!

Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally. As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale. Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP . Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter. One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

I'm seeing a lot of well-experienced forecasters/chasers becoming very concerned about the upcoming prospects from Thursday onwards. Fortunately on night shifts so will be able to follow the entire event. If only I'd decided to go chasing out in the States a month earlier

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before! 21z RAP very potent, two dryline bulges one in Texas panhandle and another in Northern Kansas. Soundings from Texas panhandle Soundings from Northern Kansas Wonder if we see a 30% upgrade for fri and sat tomorrow morning, looking at models at the min both days certainly meet the threshold.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

If we dont see downtrends in the next few days saturday is going to be a problem, a significant trough ejection with strong flow rounding the base, negative tilt and ejection right at peak heating. At the minute everything synoptically speaking looks very favourable for a high end severe weather outbreak. A sub 997mb low is expected to develop with a strong (50-60 knot) low level jet. The existence of subtle confluence bands was also pointed out on twitter. In regimes with less forcing these bands can help give just enough lift for storms to fire off allowing for discrete convection. I do think its important to urge some caution though, differences do still exist in models. Look at the ukmets depiction, much less favourable with trough way behind. Weve had the wheels fall off the train before (especially our last setup) so lets see what the NAM and other short range models show when they get into range tomorrow/Thursday. Overall though, thursday, Friday and Saturday all are looking like good chase days with severe weather with all hazards possible. RRFS for thursday Nam 3km also for thurs NAM for friday SPC now upgraded Thursdays risk to a day 3 enhanced. "Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained." Interestingly, CSU now predicting a very small area equivalent to a high risk for Thurs, i think it will be very conditional due to cap but a significant severe event is possible if storms can fire.

reef it's all so confusing. I did a comparison between raw figures and met office climate summary maps. They definitely tweak the numbers upwards for the maps.