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Another good one. Got to laugh because otherwise we will cry.

CET May averages and other statistics ___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2023 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___ ___ ties indicated are in one decimal, table ranks are based on a second decimal ___ 21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780) 20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day. 15.1 ... warmest May (1833) 13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848) 13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788) 13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808) 13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992) 13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947) 13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952) 13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018 13.1 ... 1998, 2022 12.9 ... 1989, 1999 12.6 ... 1990, 2016 12.5 ... 2001, 2020, 2023 12.3 ... 2006, 2014 12.2 ... 2011 12.1 ... 2004, 2009 12.0 ... 2000, 2023 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2023 average 11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1994-2023) averages and 1988, 2007 11.8 ... 2002, 2012 11.7 ... 1981-2010 average 11.6 ... 1982, 1995 11.5 ... 1993, 1997 11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average 11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average 11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2023 average of all data (11.24) 11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average 11.0 ... 1986 10.9 ... 1985 10.8 ... 2015 10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average 10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)* 10.5 ... 2013 10.3 ... 1983 10.2 ... 2021 10.1 ... 1987 9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979) 9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years) 9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest 9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May Extreme cold 4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9) 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2) 3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861) _____________________________________ * The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties. ______________________________________ England and Wales precip (EWP) contest Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present), The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 151.8 ___ max 1766-2023 (in 1773) 142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967 122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2023 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983 65.1 ___ average 1994-2023 64.1 ___ average 1766-2023 (all data) 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2023 (in 2020) _ (13.7 (1991) previous) 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2023) in 1844 ________________________________________________________________ Recent ... 2023_43.8 mm ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. ... Good luck in both contests ...

It's getting like it is in winter for snow seekers, with the season just gone a perfect example. It was supposed to turn colder late December, then it was early January, mid January, late January, early February, mid February, late February and before we knew it, it was March! However, at least it's only April with peak summer a good few months away. I'm sure we will have some hot weather next season, but will it be of the heat spike variety among cooler/unsettled spells or will we get more prolonged pleasant weather without getting ridiculously hot and humid?! 2018 was great in that it was consistently warm/hot with only modest levels of humidity until late July.

Currently modelled for midnight Sunday, however this will probably change timings and track between now and then.

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before! 21z RAP very potent, two dryline bulges one in Texas panhandle and another in Northern Kansas. Soundings from Texas panhandle Soundings from Northern Kansas Wonder if we see a 30% upgrade for fri and sat tomorrow morning, looking at models at the min both days certainly meet the threshold.

If its going to stay unsettled, then we need the low to move to the sw to bring in something a bit warmer. That way, the risk of thunderstorms will start to increase at this time of year. That will make things a lot more interesting.

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

We all know what will win out instead....

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.