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BREAKING NEWS:- The first Nationwide dry spell , for 9 months ,predicted by the end of this week.....!☺

A storm passing the south end of Milton Keynes birthed a weak funnel cloud, lasting for a few minutes just before 5pm. Rotation in the cloud leading up to it was very evident!

Three things stand out this morning from gfs. A drying trend nationwide, that must be the most important thing that stands out. Secondly, a chilly airmass enveloping the UK, bonus plenty of sunshine, especially southeastern Britain. Thirdly, Frost ,will be problematic for just about all nationwide. A lot to cheer about, now the rain train is coming to a halt ,some pleasant Spring like weather on the way, ,no heavy rain , No gales , and bright cheery weather to be had , what's not to like about that! ☺

This is at Norwich at 3.45pm just had some big lightning and hail from this heavy shower.

It seems some are in denial. The mean for Manchester has highs barely in double figures for most part. It’s certainly a cool outlook with winds frequently coming from northerly direction with cool air aloft. A bit milder this weekend with high covering UK briefly, then it looks to re-centre further NW. it’s a very poor outlook if you’re looking for warmth. If only if it was winter comes to mind.

Just like to the 10 days before Easter the models were in full agreement of a deep Atlantic low just to the west of the UK, now we have solid agreement of an Atlantic high setting up to the west, and maybe shifting east to sit over the UK. Nothing particularly warm in sight at the moment but definately an end to the constant deluge is now pretty much guarenteed...Thank God!

Some from this afternoon. A fab day for some cloudspotting, about as classic of an April sunshine & (hail) showers day as it gets. Although a little chilly for my liking, the very strong sunshine makes up for it! Also some mammatus looking at the Coventry Airport cam when I didn't have the chance to capture them:

Shiver me timbers! Looks like we have a retrogressing high before our very eyes, ha ha haar (and other pirate noises) - even before it’s properly arrived. Whether ‘twill be as shivery as 6z GFS op at day 9, where it withdraws far enough to the northwest to allow a proper cold blast down the frontage with some snow a fair way south, and settling on the hills… or holds close enough nearby to keep the old lunger a bit further east like on the 0z GEM op at day 10 (beware that sea serpent beyond the pole, haar)… the retrogression and European trough are definitely looking to be features of week 2 - ‘tis here too on the 0z EPS at day 11. Aar. The CFS weeklies (weeks 1-3) show the Euro trough by week 3 being reinforced by its maritime buddy that’s come romping through the Azores in weeks 1 and 2, while to the north, the Atlantic heights hint at wobbling back east, a tad back our way again… …the big concern for us island landlubbers looking for something to warm our jellies is that rather than a generally quiet but cool outlook, the pattern in the event all heads just that bit further north bringing us back into chilly cyclonic influences that just judder your rafters. More pirate noises….

Some pretty intense hail showers have been hitting here

Most well defined rain shaft I've witnessed in a long time.

We had a storm earlier today around 2:30pm and had a thunder bolt so loud it made by ears ring . The power also went off . Just walked to the end of my street and the house as been struck. Reports from neighbours say there is damage to quite a few properties near by.

Couldn't resist an edit:

After a pretty torrid couple of months, the pieces are starting to move towards something much more palatable. It is no surprise that this is happening now, as the effects of the significant zonal wind reversal in the strat at the end of February start to wane. The NAM index over the last couple of months looks telling: This is effectively the Arctic Oscillation (AO) but at all layers of the atmosphere, and you can see from the plot how the negative values from the SSW have continued to just sit above the troposphere and impinge our weather ever since. That doesn’t mean we’ve had constant easterlies here - not all SSWs result in this anyway for the UK locally (and I think the ones that do are becoming rarer, I’ll come back to this), but the effect on the northern hemisphere more generally has been marked. The plot also shows that into the forecast period, that reign of terror from the strat is now over it has fully downwelled - it is benign from now on, so normal spring patterns have a belated chance to take hold. A final comment re the strat, and how things may be changing with global warming. With only 6 SSWs historically per decade, it is perhaps too early to tell, but my intuition is, well, two things, a) that SSWs are becoming more frequent, and b) that, when they occur, they are becoming less likely (than the 66% rule of thumb) to deliver cold scenarios for the UK in winter. A much more settled outlook is starting to become apparent in the 8-15 day modelling, here’s the ECM clusters T192-T240: Clusters 1 and 2 (combined with 44/51 of the runs) showing high pressure in charge over the UK, how welcome is that! T264+: Clusters 2,3,4 show a continuation of the high pressure local to the UK, but the main theme from all the clusters is the lack of anything from the Atlantic, finally, with the other clusters generally having a ridge to the west of the UK, which would be a cooler scenario.

Final post from last week's trip! First a few from last Tuesday, hiking to the wildcamp spot from Glenridding and the weather cleared up nicely for the evening which gave some great visibility! A sun dog made an appearance then slowly flew to the drone closer to Helvellyn to see a few small snow patches remaining. The North Pennines could be seen clearly as the sun was setting. Was worth staying inside the tents on a rainy Wednesday for a better Thursday. The clouds cleared during Thursday morning then made the hike to Helvellyn. Clouds shrouded the summit a little although the views were great and was nice to have some calm and dry conditions once more! And finally a few from Saturday, exploring some of Borrowdale, by-passing Eagle Crag and with a distant view of I Think Scafell Pike. Very windy but dry & mild with other hikers enjoying their Saturday afternoon as well. A lovely golden sunset to finish that day off. YouCut_20240406_144652368~3.mp4 Possibly I'll come back again in the near future, maybe some point in summer when hopefully things are warmer / drier and everything looking much greener!

Are we finally heading towards the promised land? As in, a U.K. high? The ensembles certainly think so. GEFS GEPS I’m not going to fret about random GFS Ops progging the big Greenland high. As long as the means stay solid on the U.K. high, we’re all good.

Blimey. Outstanding choreography from the ridge dance troupe, lining up to really sock it to the PV on the NH dance floor over the next 10 days on the 12z ECM operational run. Let’s watch the elaborate performance as successive waves of heights push north. Starting from where we are today, PV centre stage, coordinating Atlantic, Scrussian and Bering Sea troughs in a whole hemisphere twirl. Keep an eye on that little pocket of heights over the Canadian seaboard with the hook north, because…. …first up is the Atlantic ridge by day 3, still with the northward extension of heights, now extending well up through Baffin. By day 5, the PV still holding centre stage, but the Atlantic ridge has been joined by the Alaska ridge, a sweet little link-up of heights pushing the lower heights east. But about to join in is a nascent ridge pushing up the east of Japan towards eastern Russia, and there are hints of a naughty little squeeze from Kazakhstan. By day 9 / 10, the Kazakh squeeze is maintained, well and truly heating up that floor, while the Japan surge goes all-out Siberian, joining their friends from the west in a hemispheric Cha Cha that ultimately congas its way right through the heart of the Arctic. PV exit stage left, arrivederci. A good few days respite for the UK and Ireland. Yeah, sign up everyone (if you’re not totally exhausted), the moves are awesome.

Tonnes of fascinating evolutions occuring teleconnectively I'll start by revisiting the Arctic Oscillation which I discussed here Taking the data from the above post Easy to see the -AO event has become even stronger than anticipated, the strongest positive values for a long time and stronger than during the whole entire winter season. We can watch as the extremely cold airmass associated with the Tropospheric Vortex begins to move from the Russian end of the Arctic across toward the Alaskan and Canadian end. Values at -28C 850hpa ongoing possibly some nearing -30C and still maintaining at least -24C at 850hpa upon the position shift. This can be noted from the above animations but delving slightly deeper. Trends show the coldest conditions becoming centred across Europe. Very fascinating setup hemispherically we've got a number of Rossby Wave Break Events. I have already discussed most of these and some of their impacts here Focusing on the North Pacific this looks the most impressive and set to continue development into an ongoing Rossby Wave Train - RWT We also have a developing Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic through Europe and North Africa by Mid April 14th > 15th. The right hand cut off low will be part of the significant cold temperatures across North Africa as discussed in my post in the global temperature thread however this will also bring a significant flash flood risk as a significant rainfall event occurs in Tunisia extending into Northeast and North Algeria. To fully understand the upcoming developments beyond this timeframe we need to look in detail at recent and ongoing teleconnective developments. To do this I'd like to revisit my posts from the start of January, January 20th and March 4th. Beginning with the MJO and El Ninò, a lower amplitude cycle was always going to occur and upon doing research this is a common occurence during the latter stages of strong/super El Ninò Events with the following excerpts from "The eastward propagation of MJO was also observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño events, but its intensity was weaker compared with the developing and mature stages." "3.3 Decaying stages The eastward propagation of the MJO could be observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño, but their intensity, duration and propagation distance were significantly weakened compared with those in the developing and mature stages (Figure 2). The spatiotemporal spectral analysis in Figure 3 also showed that power spectrum of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events were relatively stronger than those during the 1982/83 El Niño. The central periods of the eastward propagation for the MJO were mainly 40 days and 75 days during the decaying stages of 1997/98 El Niño, and it was primarily 40 days for the 2015/16 El Niño. However, there is no center of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the 1982/83 El Niño. The strong wave of eastward and westward propagation of lager than 90 days appeared in the decaying stages of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, which may be induced by the conversion of the MJO energy to low-frequency energy of above 90 days (Li and Zhou, 1994; Li and Li, 1995). At the same time, the high-frequency wave activities of the eastward propagation were prominent at 20–30 days during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 El Niño. In addition, the eastward propagation center of zonal wave 2 was detected during the decaying stages of the 1982/83 El Niño. The evolution and composite results of the RMM index during decaying stages of three super El Niño illustrated that the MJO activity in the decaying stages is significantly weaker than that in the developing and mature stages. The MJO intensity in the decaying stages was the weakest, especially for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events (Figure 2; Figure 4; Figure 5). The RMM indexes of phase 4–8 during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño changed from positive anomaly in the mature stages to negative anomalies, particularly in phase 6–8 (Figure 5C). The strong MJO activity led to the increase in the average RMM index of phase 4-5 in May 1998. The two robust MJO activities in June and July 2016 also enhanced the average RMM index of phase 1-2 during the decaying stages of the 2015/16 El Niño. Many studies had indicated that the robust MJO activity in May 1998 triggered the easterly anomalies, resulting in the termination of El Niño. After the MJO event, the Niño 3.4 index rapidly decayed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly (Takayabu et al., 1999; Miyakawa et al., 2017). Figure 2 showed that during the decaying stages of three super El Niño, when Niño 3.4 index turned from positive to negative, the MJO easterly existed in the eastern Pacific, which demonstrated that the MJO easterlies may accelerate the extinction of strong El Niño. Meanwhile, the MJO westerlies in April 1998 and June 2016 existed in the eastern Pacific, while the decaying rate of the Niño 3.4 index was prominently reduced. The anomalous MJO zonal wind amplitudes in the Indian Ocean and Pacific were weakened in the decaying stages, especially in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, while they were enhanced in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly in the 2015/16 (Figure 6). The MJO zonal wind amplitudes strengthened over the eastern Pacific, which may lead to the stronger 2015/16 El Niño. These results indicate that the MJO plays a critical role in the decaying stages of El Niño while it is necessary to further study the interaction between the MJO and the decaying stages of El Niño." Taking the MJO progression of late we see this evolution occuring again with the lowest amplitude involved with progression across the Indian Ocean. There are many areas of importance and interest here. With ongoing discrepancies between all models on amplitude and progression / timing of this cycle its no surprise seeing associated differences within the outputs which will continue until this is worked out however there are patterns which are increasingly probable given recent progression and continuing feedback of El Ninò which I will discuss below. As I discussed in my posts during January it's not overly shocking seeing the MJO decreasing in amplitude across the Indian Ocean given interesting recent developments involving the Indian Ocean Dipole. Taking the data from my post in January the IOD looked to weaken markedly and be at neutral - potentially negative by this current timeframe. Met Office BOM This weakening close to neutral has occured but a re-emergence into positive IOD conditions are occuring a bit earlier and stronger than those outlooks. Newest Data courtesy of Met Office and BOM Other seasonal models also trending into more of a noticeable +IOD Looking at upcoming developments and revisiting my post from October "I've enjoyed researching the PNA further extending more information than the bits I knew already and having found multiple papers there's a clear connection with the PNA and upstream blocks either Scandi Greenland or a mix of both which stems from Rossby Wave Breaking in most scenarios as we are and have witnessed lately." We are seeing the most negative PNA since Late February. Pairing this with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and the Maritimes in April in an El Ninò plus feedback typically seen in association with El Ninò From now through Mid April we see the Atlantic Ridge regime which could extend across Ireland possibly the UK for a time, with this transitioning into blocking to our Northeast, North and most likely Greenland too. As shown in my post from October and other occasions a negative PNA can lead to a cold - potentially significantly cold temperature anomaly from the Northeast-East Recent GFS outputs. Thanks for reading, KW ️

If you’re talking to me at least @ me thanks. In what way I have done that? All I’m saying temperatures are indicated to be well below average for late April, no one has mention snow and freezing temperatures and what can be expected at this time of year. You said about me being antagonistic, I think you should look at yourself, all you do is purposely try to undermine messaging, if anything cool is mentioned, it’s a repeated pattern from you. It’s as if it upsets you personally, I find it very odd it is just the weather.

The most important thing to keep in mind is how much drier the outlook is. We've finally lost those damp westerlies and south westerlies off the Atlantic. The upcoming northerlies and northeasterlies will carry less moisture, particularly with high pressure still quite close to the country. It's unlikely to be bone dry, showers sometimes in the mix or light patchy rain, but for farmers or anyone (which is pretty much everyone) who is sick of the flooding and non stop rainfall, this is very good to see. The sun is as strong as it is at the end of August now, and with afternoon temperatures in the 10-13C range, that would still feel quite pleasant and accelerate evaporation following any rainfall. Expecting low 20s and no rain through most of April is a very high expectation, and recent Aprils have spoiled a lot of us and exceeded said expectations. April usually isn't a month for something that contains prolonged warmth or non stop sunshine. Though something warmer and sunnier will probably come into May or early summer though, it has to!

my better half sent me this - from outside her shop in sale. i see no lightning on the radar but she's saying there is a lot of low rumbling going on, that line has been travelling SE for the last two hours.. WhatsApp Video 2024-04-16 at 13.00.32.mp4

Some matumus clouds after this heavy shower pass east of Norwich at 2.30pm

Andrea spring sprung ages ago we’ve not had a below average month, leaves are open, flowers open, it’s very much a typical spring one day warm one day cold that is spring

Hola from Seville, have to pay money to see a sky like this these days! Lol. Hopefully I can bring the sun back with me when I'm home Saturday. In the mean time, hope you guys get some better spells of weather back home.

The coldies are suddenly getting excited again but I think they need to settle down. The GFS is going off on one in deep FI as it always does. Cooler next week but probably not far below average by day for most of us. The Met Office aren't predicting frosts for my area either. Any sunshine will be most welcome, even if it's cool in the shade. The ECM is showing a very different evolution with the high eventually being pushed over the UK, leading to a gradual warmup towards the end of next week.

Most well defined rain shaft I've witnessed in a long time.

A convective shower day so can't complain here.

My favourite type of weather at this time of year Arctic skies with vibrant colours and snow capped hills Photos from a drive up the A9 and minor roads this morning. Temperature from 3 to 7 c

GFS for next weekend? Yes please….

Three years ago today. Somehow I don’t think we’ll be getting anything similar today

Managed to get a lovely walk today around Teggs Nose, just got home as the rain started 4pm. Wild and windy on the top, but lovely in the sun. Those black dots on the hillside are tiny pine trees. Getting out in the sun has really lifted my spirits.

This appears to be quite a telling moment in the development of this spring. The Atlantic jet stream is heading very decisively north before fragmenting, here on the 0z ECM op for the next 10 days. The 0z ECM mean anomaly shows an impressive build in heights not only north through the Atlantic but also west into Greenland. The low pressure over the pole is lost as heights link up through the Arctic to the Siberian side. So the pattern is getting locked down. From the meridional 5-wave hemispheric pattern we’ve been looking at recently, we might have seen the next stage involving injection of some energy to incorporate a couple more waves, reduce the amplification and introduce a more mobile setup, but instead we’re seeing the opposite happen - the Atlantic build is so substantial that it serves to carve out one of the waves altogether. This is shown nicely by the 0z GEFS jet stream charts, the 5-wave starfish at day 5 being replaced by a 4-wave cross at day 10, the jet stream actually bending back on itself with a northeasterly component as it dives south towards the UK and Ireland. The surface flow will be very much in the northeast for several days, following the contour lines in the mean heights charts (below) from around day 5 onwards. So we’re moving towards a more static setup towards the end of the month, drier than it has been, but with suppressed temperatures. The stronger sunshine when on offer could make for some pleasant weather all the same, especially further west with shelter, though as discussed, the onshore breeze could be quite the dampener in eastern parts at times. One more thing, looking through to day 10, the upper trough remains uncomfortably close by to the east, even steadily working its way further west - so small systems beginning to run down the western flank of the trough, picking up moisture through the Norwegian Sea, might well become an added complication later on next week.

first time properly using camera and messing with settings

Please continue to use the reporting facility in the usual way. If you have a specific issue regarding moderation, or in general, that you would like to raise with the team, then please do so via here: https://www.netweather.tv/other/contact-us We greatly appreciate this feedback. Please remember that the moderators are keeping an eye on the shape of the forum across many threads. If you have reported a post and no action has been taken, it’s invariably because it has been reviewed and the decision was to leave the post as it is. For instance, at quieter times, when there is little possibility of the thread becoming derailed by a marginal post, some leeway is sometimes given in order to keep the threads moving along and as engaging as possible. A blustery and chilly morning here, showery with plenty of hail. Not great, but a 1030mb+ high building through the UK and Ireland by day 6 on the 0z ECM op, day 0-6 here, the rise in pressure and its convenient location now well inside the reliable and for once, coinciding with the weekend! Many a lawn will get mowed…. An impressive build in heights to the west and north. No doubt some fresh and chilly nights and mornings as it works its way in and settles down. Consistent signs of the high pulling back west thereafter, but for a fair few days, this is going to feel much, much better!

A fairly lively morning by the looks of things though the lightning missed my area by 20-30 miles this morning to my east. Rain seemed heavy, briefly woke up around the time the squall hit. Showers with hail mixed in following behind, classic post-frontal cold unstable air setup with the strong sunshine leading to some decent convection.

Quite remarkable given what we've seen recently - the GFS 12z keeps the Atlantic firmly blocked for the rest of the month, largely with high pressure in control. Generally near average to slightly on the chilly side temperature-wise though, especially further north. At the surface though it looks closer to average apart from the middle part of next week, probably due to warmer than average SSTs around the UK keeping things a bit milder than you'd otherwise expect. In extreme FI right at the two week mark, possibly a sign for a warm up, but very weak signal at this stage. The ECM ensemble meteograms also show the pattern quite clearly - a very strong signal for the winds to be coming from some sort of northerly direction for the foreseeable. So, the upshot is we've got what I think most of us were wishing for - a period of much drier weather on the way overall once we get the rain early next week out of the way. But generally staying quite chilly. Good weather for walking, but pack the T-shirts and shorts away for a bit longer. A sustained period of both warm and dry weather looks like it will have to wait until the very end of the month at the absolute earliest, or more likely early May.

The current regional rainfall total is ridiculous for April. We are not even halfway through April and we are already in the top 40 wettest Aprils on record for the region after just 11 days. April is one of the driest months of the year on average for our region.

Believe it or not, the period July 2023 - to now, is wetter than the whole of last year and last year was the 6th wettest year on record for the region...

Quick summary. Best charts I’ve seen in a long time for eventually the weather settling down. The change is underway, but needs a little more time for the complete settled weather to arrive! Anyway, trends looking the best I’ve seen all year….

The mad hail reached here now. Looks like more might be incoming in the next hourish. 20240416_152147.mp4

A few heavy showers likely with hail (seen a report of hail from Nuneaton) passing just east of here, but my area has managed to stay dry so it's mostly a pleasant mid April afternoon so far. YouCut_20240416_130841037.mp4

Rain Lady aye it doesn’t matter which side of the GW debate you sit on, the conditions since early summer last year have been abysmal and we will all likely feel the effects in terms of substandard foods at higher prices. if this turns out to have been a freak event and conditions settle down into a lengthy period of good weather then some sort of normality will return and GW will suddenly become a positive thing but months of continuing wet weather has certainly played havoc with all aspects of life and I really feel for anyone trying to make a living in these conditions. Thankfully the dire conditions of yesterday should improve into something drier over the next few days with that rarest of beast, a high pressure system looking to set up shop around this part of the world but to me it looks like a drier but largely cloudy affair and, given the need for sunshine at this time of year, suppressed temperatures. I certainly cannot see us reaching for the sun cream and dusting the BBQ off anytime soon.

For the first time in over 3 months, yes that long, the models show high pressure rather than low pressure ruling the roost in the near term. We are not talking a major blocking high that will fend off frontal features, namely as it is forecast to position to our west at first allowing weak frontal features to flow around its NE flank, it then attempts to build over and through to our east but ultimately becomes thwarted by lower heights which look set to develop into a major euro trough. In these set ups which are very common in the latter half of Spring, chilly easterly and north east winds can bring cool damp showery airstreams to the east and south, whilst the north and west holds onto the driest sunniest weather. The only time in the year when the NW is on the 'fine' side of the NW- SE divide. More notable is the return to near average means, again something we haven't seen for any length of time since mid January.

Never seen hail forced to the surface so hard it set car alarms off and the hills are white over, what a noise it made.

Covering of snow on higher ground.

Yes. Lively out there as reported elsewhere. Belting squall swept through had the Terriers barking so it was get up time. Anyway here’s some Monday Museum Piece Machinery took yesterday out and about when reasonably pleasant from a neighbouring village.

Active period of weather with this. Number of dynamics going on, we have a cold front which will be finishing its journey through Ireland and the UK by midday Monday. With a strengthening Jet Streak interacting with the cold front there are a few heightened threats these being increased wind gusts with trends for embedded potentially damaging gusts and also a potential for tornadic activities embedded along the cold front I'd suggest parts of Ireland and also Wales and Southwest England being particularly at risk though it's a wide area overall. To the Northeast of this active Jet Streak we have a deep cold pool moving in at 500hpa, this corresponding brilliantly with a pool of increased instability meaning the showers having a higher expectation of being thundery in nature and combining to the Lowering Isothermic values a wintry mix with snow mostly at high levels though not exclusively with hail and sleet to lower levels. Northwest, North and Northeast England and Scotland seeing the most of this activity. As this Arctic plunge descends through Europe this brings yet another significant snowfall event across the Alps, a very repetitive and common occurence during this El Ninò. I'm also noticing the signal of a significant snow event in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Wednesday through Friday.

Fine day for sowing wind and sun earlier. Some showers late afternoon.Into last field 30 minutes ago and heavy rain came on. So stopped again.

Scorcher Yes, high hangs around in some shape or form until the end of the run on the GFS, although drifts slightly northwest later. GEM 12z run is a cracker through to T240, things starting to properly firm up now:

Convective Outlook ️ An active cold front is developing just of the coast of W Scot which will track SE across the country bringing the risk of the odd lightning strikes, 60mph gusts & a brief possible tornado. T-storms are also expected for W Scot where a SLGHT has been issued. Perhaps a re-strengthening towards the Lincolnshire corridor but not enough confidence in how it'll evolve for that.

Haven't posted in a while. Been busy at work & home. Can't believe we are already half way through April! I'm used to being disappointed with winters but this spring can only be descrided as disgusting. Have managed to Goldilocks around the country a bit in the last few weeks. Largs in late March. It was wild wind wise. Millport ferry in the background. Aberfeldy for my first bike ride of the year on Easter Sunday. Walked up the Birks to the stunning waterfall. Anstruther for a gig at Bread & Butter cafe on the 4th of April. Florence enjoying the vista this evening. Fingers crossed for a great summer!