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Keeping abreast of the models, here’s a notable pair of ECM means, in near perfect hemispheric symmetry around day 9 / 10, persistent heights reinforcing the cleavage. The sheer indecision of it all - sure to be amongst the abiding mam…oops, memories of spring 2024.

It looks like there will be snow on Saturday, in my area and in part of the rest of Finland. Next week more snow or sleet is perhaps coming, this time of the year, it is not necessary anymore. Hoping that Summer months June/July is something like showing reanalysis, not like lastest summers. Sorry My bad english.

If you’re talking to me at least @ me thanks. In what way I have done that? All I’m saying temperatures are indicated to be well below average for late April, no one has mention snow and freezing temperatures and what can be expected at this time of year. You said about me being antagonistic, I think you should look at yourself, all you do is purposely try to undermine messaging, if anything cool is mentioned, it’s a repeated pattern from you. It’s as if it upsets you personally, I find it very odd it is just the weather.

Got a pleasant shock when by chance I spotted this tawny owl just a few feet away from me this morning. I nearly walked passed it

Been a better day so far for sunshine than yesterday, max 13.3°C, doesn't look like the Lake District did so well. Stunning walk, the canal was really busy with walkers, everybody enjoying a dry Sunday. Proper spaceship Lenticulars too.

The most important thing to keep in mind is how much drier the outlook is. We've finally lost those damp westerlies and south westerlies off the Atlantic. The upcoming northerlies and northeasterlies will carry less moisture, particularly with high pressure still quite close to the country. It's unlikely to be bone dry, showers sometimes in the mix or light patchy rain, but for farmers or anyone (which is pretty much everyone) who is sick of the flooding and non stop rainfall, this is very good to see. The sun is as strong as it is at the end of August now, and with afternoon temperatures in the 10-13C range, that would still feel quite pleasant and accelerate evaporation following any rainfall. Expecting low 20s and no rain through most of April is a very high expectation, and recent Aprils have spoiled a lot of us and exceeded said expectations. April usually isn't a month for something that contains prolonged warmth or non stop sunshine. Though something warmer and sunnier will probably come into May or early summer though, it has to!

Good to see the ensembles trending towards something warmer. There has been a gradual trend towards less cool air next week as well. Ultimately though we need a dry couple of weeks now- regardless of the temperatures.

We’ve been quite lucky this morning, it has been absolutely beautiful, steadily warming up from a -1.2 degrees frost around dawn, 1026mb and no wind. April mornings don’t come much better. A very reasonable looking few days ahead, through the weekend and into early next week, the 0z EPS chart for next Monday morning at day 4 is a cracker. The MSLP chart shows a high pressure of 1036mb over the UK and Ireland, part of a “bar” of higher pressure extending through to the Siberian Arctic. But make the most of it! Even with this setup, though it is nigh impossible for our high to be shifted east by anything off the Atlantic, it instead gets undermined by trough development to the east. There were good hints of this in the models yesterday, and though still a fair way off, the subtle hints of yesterday for day 10 have grown into clear suggestions today for day 9, the trough notably deeper and further west. This is the kind of evolution I love to see, not necessarily for the weather it will bring, but for the phenomenon itself. The 0z ECM op at days 6-10 shows the potential, the Scandinavian trough spawning a little low pressure system running down through the Norwegian Sea, joining with another more active one coming out of Greenland and sweeping down through Iceland… …the two merging and swivelling down into the UK and Ireland, with the cold air reasserting itself in the process. With the seasonal timing, probably not at all welcome, though I keep the faith that one of these years we’ll get this kind of thing a couple of months earlier and enjoy it a lot more. As it stands in the current modelling, it’s a spring ambush!

Want to start by revisiting the above statement from January, there can often be discrepancies between the various Meteorological Agencies particularly regarding ENSO statuses but we have BOM first to declare ENSO Neutral. Per my recent post here I discussed that the Super El Ninò Event had transitioned into more of a West Based Event, the latest ENSO discussion from NOAA agrees and gives further info https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf We'll have to await JMA and NOAA anouncing ENSO Neutral conditions and personally I dont get involved in debates a la Twitter last year with many arguing we weren't in an El Ninò though as I have discussed prior no 2 ENSO events behave indentically though there are common characteristics of each ENSO, and there can be lag in the Oceanic > Atmospheric 'coupling'. Newest ENSO outlooks from Met Office suggest ENSO Neutral heading into May with the oncoming La Nina conditions intensifying in the 1 & 2 Regions quite fast. Starting to see more details to add to some of my recent posts. Looking in more detail, the most significant developments upcoming, as the cyclonic system discussed here Merges with a cut off low in Northwest America this will link to the Tropospheric Vortex which is modelled to greatly intensify with indication potentially record breaking low pressure into Canada. Part of the MJO Indian Ocean > Maritimes feedback in an El Ninò in April as posted prior As shown in my recent post we continue to see the Atlantic Ridge in an El Ninò setup with another cold plunge during the next few days. Following on we have the high pressure moving into Ireland and the UK as mentioned prior plus as the Tropospheric Vortex developments occur in Canada this paired to the Negative PNA will see a high descending from West Canada across America with a new Arctic air outbreak, a relatively common pattern of the last few months which I've covered in the global thread. This will bring significantly below average temperatures. During the latter stage of April week 3 through April week 4 the Atlantic and Ireland-UK high will begin to take on the MJO and PNA feedback of blocking to our Northeast > Scandinavia and Russia, this will also retrograde into Iceland and Greenland as discussed prior with a good representation of many of the major European weather regimes / teleconnective feedback. Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance LINK.SPRINGER.COM Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like... Nothing surprising here factoring in recent MJO progression with an ongoing probable further feedback of multiple Stratospheric > Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, *though the current zonal winds are above average. Overall a prolonged period with below average temperatures will continue with some significant anomalies across Europe in particular, we then look during April week 4 as the High retrograde gets going for these below average conditions to extend into the UK > Ireland. Thanks for reading. KW

Managed to get a lovely walk today around Teggs Nose, just got home as the rain started 4pm. Wild and windy on the top, but lovely in the sun. Those black dots on the hillside are tiny pine trees. Getting out in the sun has really lifted my spirits.

ANYWEATHER If the above synoptics verify I think many will be rating April 2024 as the poorest since 2012. Despite the warmth of the first 2 weeks it was combined with cloud and rain. 2021 though was very cold was also very dry and sunny. The models are showing no sustained settled spell, by mid week we see a pincer attack - low heights to the NE merging with the atlantic trough to the NW, end product low heights over the UK, cool and wet conditions. Not clear how things may develop as we approach May, generally a very changeable outlook at a time of year which is often associated with not very changeable conditions, settled weather fans have drawn a short straw since June by and large.

Looks like a trend on GFS for temperatures to return back closer to average by the end of the month after a cooler than average period. Still no sign at this stage of an incoming heatwave. At the surface, we do see a warming trend through the mid point of the run but it's also accompanied by more rain. Looks like a bit of a trade off - we get mild but not especially warm weather back, but in return it comes with a greater risk of rain. Fortunately most runs are not excessively wet, though.

This appears to be quite a telling moment in the development of this spring. The Atlantic jet stream is heading very decisively north before fragmenting, here on the 0z ECM op for the next 10 days. The 0z ECM mean anomaly shows an impressive build in heights not only north through the Atlantic but also west into Greenland. The low pressure over the pole is lost as heights link up through the Arctic to the Siberian side. So the pattern is getting locked down. From the meridional 5-wave hemispheric pattern we’ve been looking at recently, we might have seen the next stage involving injection of some energy to incorporate a couple more waves, reduce the amplification and introduce a more mobile setup, but instead we’re seeing the opposite happen - the Atlantic build is so substantial that it serves to carve out one of the waves altogether. This is shown nicely by the 0z GEFS jet stream charts, the 5-wave starfish at day 5 being replaced by a 4-wave cross at day 10, the jet stream actually bending back on itself with a northeasterly component as it dives south towards the UK and Ireland. The surface flow will be very much in the northeast for several days, following the contour lines in the mean heights charts (below) from around day 5 onwards. So we’re moving towards a more static setup towards the end of the month, drier than it has been, but with suppressed temperatures. The stronger sunshine when on offer could make for some pleasant weather all the same, especially further west with shelter, though as discussed, the onshore breeze could be quite the dampener in eastern parts at times. One more thing, looking through to day 10, the upper trough remains uncomfortably close by to the east, even steadily working its way further west - so small systems beginning to run down the western flank of the trough, picking up moisture through the Norwegian Sea, might well become an added complication later on next week.

Weakest warm front I've known, delivering sunshine and high cloud, puzzled... answers why this is happening?

It's a lot better outside today than was originally forecast with a high of 13'c, and thankfully the cold winds from the north have somewhat abated.

Its stayed dry so far here, cloudy but not overcast and a temp peak 13.5 degrees. There is precipitation to the North but it is falling apart and we might just see a very brief smatter. Overall a very fine weekend, nothing special, but after months of dull wet weather it feels far more seasonal.

It certainly wakes you up outside. Lovely clear cloudless sunrise, and a layer to scrape off the car. Make the most of it, enjoy the day.

raz.org.rain don’t be scared. “Expect” and “project” Even if it happens, there’s nothing you can do about it, other than vote for Greta Thunberg, whose ideas would create as many problems as they solve. Just try to enjoy life as best you can.

Wet during the day with the sun finally making an appearance at teatime. Light winds and max of 9c. Showers thereafter, but mixed with a low sun some stunning rainbows as a result (taken in Alford)... Farmers now starting to plough fields in earnest, normally a job completed well before now - a testament to what seems like incessant wet weather since last autumn.

Some weird stuff happening here this evening VID-20240417-WA0004.mp4

What I think was the north sea storm approaching but just skirting past Kent.

Cold raw back at home with hail and sleet last couple days. I was getting desperate for warmth and sun so down seeing family in France. After couple warm sunny days we now have cold raw winds here too goddam it. Photos were last weekend.

I'm not quite sure I agree with this. No one is claiming an April 1981 redux but more that the signal for the next 7 to 10 days is looking fairly chilly and likely to feature some chilly nights, so it'll be below average, particularly in the east. Most posters know the strength of the sun is enough to get temperatures in double digits even with cool uppers. If you're in the far north and west it'll likely be better, but if we get cloudy NE/E winds with cold uppers then quite a bit of the country from the Midlands east could struggle with maximum temperatures if there's a lot of cloud and nagging sea breezes. No hyperbole going on imo.

Morning Squall & Hail Showers - 15 April 2024 Time-Lapse

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

Addicks Fan 1981 I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tams got sick of having her missives unfairly dissected, if not ridiculed; not by you, of course, but by those who should know better.

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.

One of those occasions which is most likely to occur in the second half of Spring than any other time of year, when much of Cumbria sees the best English conditions, Wales, N Ireland and West Scotland often the same. Thanks to the influence of high pressure to the west, we received virtually nil traces of rain from the warm front, it was all to our east, and today we have sat in a dry spot, albeit cloudy, but also quite bright, high level cloud, no wind and pleasant temps close to 14 degrees. Always say mid April to late June best time to visit Lake District!

So much better than it looked on the forecast 48 hrs ago. Barely a cloud in the sky, apart from those mentioned above. Little breeze, so feeling warm in the sun whilst out walking the dog. There's very little competition, but the best weekend for weather so far this year.

A great view of the lenticular clouds over Winter Hill from Pennington Flash.

Are we ever going to have two sunny days one after the other again? Asking for a friend.

Managed to catch the last glimpse of Comet 12P Pons brooks while on holiday despite the sunset light. The next big comet will be Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) if it doesn’t disintegrate.

Local trudge. Salwick. More like the Norfolk Broads. Half decent when Sun broke.

This high pressure then..... It's all a cruel joke. Raining here, cold, miserable. I didn't think 2024 could be worse than 2023 but so far it's shaping up to be.

wow

No

raz.org.rain I do remember thinking in like Feb ‘at least this spring can’t be as bad as the last one’ A cautionary tale to never tempt fate.

We all know what will win out instead....

Not very often we see a low pressure system romp so triumphantly west from Scandinavia through the UK and Ireland to the Atlantic, as here on the 12z UKMO but there are some very intricate handovers of pockets of low heights that drive the whole process and give it some considerable elegance. The first pocket drops south to join the Scandinavian low at day 2, deepening it. The second drops out of the trough at the tip of Greenland at day 3, joining the melee at day 4 and drawing the system west over the UK and Ireland for the weekend. Thanks A third pocket drops southeast via the same route at day 6, pulling the system west out over the Atlantic. Looks like an “atmospheric” weekend awaits to round off this very mixed April, ripe for savoury evening treats washed down with a sumptuous glass or three of your favourite ale or wine. The late spring fitness effort can wait until some suitable conditions are laid on. And from there, let’s grab all the potential silver linings. Though not seemingly immediately on offer, there are at least some emerging signs that this remarkable retrogression, as a part of wider adjustments occurring within the generally very static hemispheric pattern, might eventually lead to sufficiently consistent heights building over the near continent to bring us a better chance of some warmer interludes as May progresses.

richie3846 shows just how dreadful these last 18 months have been for people to say that 7 degrees and drizzle can be considered as 'not too bad'. It's late April for crying out loud, it's completely dismal and depressing.

Where has the dry weekend gone Its pouring here this morning Got grass seed sown yesterday so some progress.

Yuk Yuk and more Yuk what a depressing outlook more rain and low temperatures.

Models holding firm on a generally more settled theme compared to anything since mid January. I say 'more settled', not exclusively settled which I would describe as dry throughout. After tomorrow's frontal features work through, high pressure looks set to osscilate in our vicinity, first to the west, then building through the UK over the weekend and then advecting north west, pulling in a north easterly flow. I'm waiting for the often used phrase at this time of year 'west is best', all very common synoptics second half of Spring. Look back at the weather archives and you will see this type of synoptic feature often in many years, and often for quite some time. Northerlies and easterlies reach their annual peak hereon until June. For someone in the 'west', its why I rate May my favourite month of the year, most likely to experience less in the way of dank westerlies and southwesterlies, by May the sun is just as strong as in high summer but air temps are tempered.

It was quite a pleasant morning to be had whilst having a bimble up to Middleton Top & Minninglow although it's still bitterly cold out in the wind, but at least there's some strength to the sun which immediately lifts the temperatures whilst in sheltered spots. Back to rain and showers now.. typical.

Clouding up more now. A beautiful new hatched orange tip butterfly flitting about in the sunshine this morning. First signs of pink buds on apple tree.

Early out. The desolation of Hardendale. Chill Northerly

A brief overview of the GFS 0z. By the weekend we're under high pressure but with rather chilly uppers, particularly in the far east, so while even by day it may feel a tad nippy it will sure be quite chilly by night and the start of the frost risk is already apparent. What's of interest is that by Monday the 22nd we see the high pressure far north enough to establish a north-easterly flow over much of England and Wales, more substantially so than the previous run. I imagine this will bring very raw, cloudy and quite showery conditions so in the south the long awaited dry spell may end up being rather soggy. Some notably chilly uppers on this run with about -5 and even some isolated patches down to about -7C on the east coast. I feel like this could be a particularly cloudy and showery affair due to warmer than average SST anomalies in the North Sea at the moment. The raw, showery theme is maintained up to Wednesday the 24th with north-easterly winds continuing though uppers moderating. The previous run had a trough over and to the east of the country which was far more unsettled whereas this, while still unsettled, wouldn't be quite as so, so there's some question as to how much an effect low pressure will have at this time though winds are likely to be from a northerly quadrant. I'd go up to day ten itself but for some reason I can't, all the charts seem to be stuck on midnight on the 26th thereafter. So, what does it show? It looks like a persistent pattern of chilly weather will likely take place in the second half of April. Will it be exceptionally cold and with buckets of snow? Very unlikely. But anyone saying it's a mild outlook is letting their bias overlook the forecast, end of. It looks to me a very normal pattern that you'd expect to see in any given April and what would be very normal 40 years ago, but coming after such an exceptionally mild first half to April it's going to be a shock. Those who were hoping for the first signs of summer will have to wait, and in some areas it may not even be overly dry, though out west (especially you, Ireland!) there may be more shelter. Personally I'm delighted to see such normal, benign synoptics after months of bloated heights to our south. April 2024 is looking like a month that will be remembered for two very different halves, not unlike April 1995 which was similarly exceptionally mild before switching to a cool, quite northerly second-half.

Not kept focused on the weather today, other than to say we stayed dry, reading the thread lots of convection about, but not here. Lots of sunshine and far more springlike compared to yesterday. Tomorrow sees a greater threat of showers, Thursday light rain, and then, gosh we might see at least 3 dry days in a row! Hallelujah!