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Little point ducking the issue. A quacking weekend in store… 0z ECM op for day 4, as another low pressure system finds us with impressive timing! Further ahead, some more positive signs - once we start seeing this type of “super-meridional” pattern - ambitious building of heights up through the Atlantic and more spectacularly, through all the S’s - Sahara-Sweden-Svalbard-Siberia-Seguam like here at day 6 on the 0z ECM op… …it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing the trough becoming over-extended with the cutting off of the low at the base of the trough, it sinking south, the heights linking up through the UK and Ireland like here at day 8… Yes, add Skegness and Sandymount to your list, spectacular super-meridional S thing! After that, a weaker version of the trough tries to reassert itself from the northwest, which the GFS op has been keenest on, though looking at the 0z ensemble mean, the pressure never really falls away again, a steady rise to a respectable 1020mb for Birmingham by the end of week 2… …which is consistent with the ECM charts and the pincer movement of heights weakening the polar trough at its stem - so though nothing wall to wall by any means, the chance of a somewhat more promising setup emerging into early May. I’ll post again around then. All the best.

I have to say, I am seeing very little of hope of a substantial warm up in any of the models. Maybe something on ECM clusters 2 and 3 in the T192-T240 timeframe: But otherwise the pieces aren’t in the right place, and that doesn’t look like changing on the T264+: Maybe clusters 3 and 4 show an inkling of setting in the region of the UK. What we can say, is that the outlook is not wall to wall unsettled, like the earlier part of spring which is a pyrrhic victory, I suppose. At this time of year, I am usually on the lookout for signs of any self-reinforcing pattern setting up with an eye to summer, but no signs of that at all. First steps would need to be a build of some sort of heat over the near continent of which there is absolutely no sign, GFS 0z T360, for example: Meanwhile, above us the final warming in the stratosphere looms, in a few days on GFS 0z: The change to easterlies as shown (blue) on the left plot at 10 hPa 60N has been very clearly advertised for a while now, but there is no big driver to affect our weather with this, that (from the SSW) petered out a couple of weeks ago, and the strat is drifting now into summer mode as the vortex disappears. So one hopes the weaker drivers of summer edge the tropospheric patterns to something more favourable in due course, but for now the wait continues…

Another good one. Got to laugh because otherwise we will cry.

SunnyG Yeah, 20 degrees is possible for next week. So weird, I've never seen a situation that after snow it already feels like Summer. It's only taking a week until we can wear t-shirts and shorts.

Who likes snow at this time of the year ? Fourth consecutive day of persistent snowfall in these parts. Currently -1.6c in the village with a deep covering. Strange though as it was 30c in the valleys 10 days ago. The joys of spring ! c

Grand dry day. Swallows back chattering excitedly on electric wires. Theres's plenty of insects already due to the wetness. I fear a plague of midges this year.

Rush2019 Thought it was just us covered in moss! Never seen so much. Anything that hasn't moved has got thickly coated by this spring.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

We all know what will win out instead....

Azazel I guess I picked the wrong month to go bare legged in My Kilts......a tad raw & windy around me trossachs I can tell You!!! I've normally had a least 1 hammock day by now, sometimes in March, but not a bloody chance this Year so far! Luckily I found a 'accidental bar stool' for my 'accidental Bar' so I can pop out and make use of the sunny ten mins we get allotted from time to time!!!

Certainty on models have been quite good for the past few weeks, although there is some uncertainties past day 6 on majority this morning. Of course the likelihood of a dry settled warm spell seems unlikely, but there were hints a few days ago, and the MET ensembles for 192 seems a little interested in the idea. Icon also interested this morning on a decent ridge from the Azores. Wouldn't rule anything else, seems the uncertainty is coming from the stratosphere behaviour I believe. We all know how rapidly changes can occur.

Precisely, just posted this in the moans thread. This time of year always has a greater likelihood of northern blocking, but a late season SSW simply locks in a pattern of high latitude blocking for far longer than we’d otherwise expect, which more often than not results in the UK being a trough magnet or keeping us under cool northerly or easterly winds. It happened last year too. Until this works its way through the trop, we’re unlikely to get anything substantially warm and dry until mid May at the earliest.

Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally. As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale. Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP . Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter. One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

Sentinel Bacteria in the sea will be transported away from the source by underwater currents, wind and wave action. Yes it will be diluted but it can still infect. Good luck anyway, I hope you don’t fall sick when you do take the plunge

Overnight low of -1.6c, ground frost noticeable until sunrise. All tops clear and sunny intervals. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine.

The aim of this thread to hopefully jinx us out of this infinite satanic pattern has clearly not been working lol. Here we are, still in a never ending abyss of grey & wet raw sewage except it has somehow managed to get worse with it becoming chillier as the days get longer! For me, this is turning into the worst year I have ever experienced & 2023 was bad enough but at least that one had a good February, acceptable May, good June & September! This one has had nothing except a sunny enough January. Wow, thanks so much weather gods for a good January & warmth rest of year....

0.6 mm rain over night from a little feature in the early hours. WRF had been showing that for awhile. It's done well this year with the mesoscale.

I'm seeing a lot of well-experienced forecasters/chasers becoming very concerned about the upcoming prospects from Thursday onwards. Fortunately on night shifts so will be able to follow the entire event. If only I'd decided to go chasing out in the States a month earlier

Another grey lid day to add to the previous 1000's, cold, windy and occasionally spitting with rain, what a steaming pile our climate has become. Barring a couple of storms, this year is the most boring yet too and there is quite some competition there in recent times. SAD from Oct - May these days and seems to be extended each year. Sunlight, warmth and stormy breakdowns soon please weather Gods before I go insane.

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before! 21z RAP very potent, two dryline bulges one in Texas panhandle and another in Northern Kansas. Soundings from Texas panhandle Soundings from Northern Kansas Wonder if we see a 30% upgrade for fri and sat tomorrow morning, looking at models at the min both days certainly meet the threshold.

In Absence of True Seasons I am reading the journals of Lord Byron and he calls it a "preposterous climate". And that was back in 1812.

Methuselah Tamara is a great miss on this thread. I loved her indebth analysis.

Azazel Bloody hell I would be absolutely melting in that attire in this weather. It's chilly but no more than a light jumper required for me.

Fine and partly sunny day here but it’s freaky cold for this time of year. This is why I hate a late season SSW. They always end up bringing northern blocking which is the deathknell for spring warmth as they tend to result in northerlies

Just walked the dog in thermals and my huge winter coat and bobble hat. The wind is absolutely raw. Just in the process of booking the second of two holidays abroad this summer (Spain in June and south of France in august). I’m not letting the god awful climate of this place ruin my mental and physical health for 2 years running

In Absence of True Seasons The average high in London at the end of April is 17c, and we aren't getting near that in the next week at least. For all the talk of this April being warm, we will probably end up with below average high temps. It's only above average by the mean because the nights have been mild due to the incessant cloudiness. We will end up duller than the average March.

Sun's come out in last 30 mins, only 10c but feels pleasant enough in the sun. Just giving our outsde sidegate a final paint, so weather is v useable

In Absence of True Seasons it’s cold everywhere at the moment: Barring the last week or so, this Spring has definitely been warmer than last year but it’s been equally wet or even wetter. I place part of the blame for last year and this year down to two late season SSW’s, which enhance what is an already strong seasonal likelihood of northern blocking. The Uk as a result becomes a trough magnet, with higher pressure at northern latitudes stopping our traditional pattern of low pressure to the NW and high pressure to the SE from setting up. Even without a SSW, northern blocking is common at this time of year, but I think the SSW has locked this pattern in far longer than it otherwise would, just as it did last year.

Morning All, an overcast yet dry start to the day, after an overnight low of 2.8°C at: 02:51, currently 9.6°C, RH73% and light air movement from the N. From Above On Golden sands, perfect channel crossing weather

Me too, slug and snail slinging is my favourite pastime.

Sentinel Have you heard about the enormous volumes of raw sewage that the water companies are still releasing into our seas? Does that not put you off? Our waters are ridden with e-Coli

Sentinel I've never known our area to be so dull! As much as rain annoys me, I'd be ok with it if we had lots of sunshine as well but this combo of wet & dull....Hell no! Make it stop lol.

That’s probably a rare statement that both summer lovers & winter lovers will agree on!!

Too far out but odd sign of improvement. This spring has been absolutely dire.

carinthian I doubt it but here's to hoping, mate. Markus03 Climate change has wrecked seasonality.

I don't think I've ever seen something like this: 30cm of snow in Finland but there could already be 20 degrees next week as warmer air pushes in from the South. Climate is really quickly make changes to the weather in such a short period of time. Especially since we're between Atlantic and Continental. There have always been quick changes but these differences will become much more quicker in short amount of time now.

carinthian I don't like snow any time of the year so I feel for you. Luckily though you will have warmth soon, which we will not...

reef You're still doing considerably better than West Yorkshire though- only 61 hours so far in Wakefield. We're not doing much better here at 73.1 hours so far- very poor.

It turned out okay in the end, still cool & breezy with some light showers across the Eastern Moors when I was having a short wander around the Bronze-Age relics at Barbrook but this Western side of the Peak District has gotten more of the sunshine for the day.

Addicks Fan 1981 to be fair, teleconnections analysts were given a lot of hell back in winter. I wouldn't be surprised if they're not interested in coming back.

I didn't think we could get a worse spring than 2023, but 2024 is doing just that. March was as bad as 2023. April will end up far worse as we won't even get to April 2023s sunshine total if we have unbroken sun for the rest of the month. May 2023 was dreadful for the first 17 days, though I fully expect May 2024 will manage to be worse. Our normal spring climate should have at least a few rainless and sunny weeks, yet the last couple of springs have produced nothing. Some people seem to think the normal climate is closer to Bergen than to the UK, and no doubt will be complaining when we do get a well overdue week of sun and 25s.

Pretty much at my wit's end tbh. It's like living inside a tupperware box dripping with condensation. We haven't had a 'Spring' this year, and it looks like it'll be well into May before we see anything remotely settled, sunny and warm. So that's 2 years on the trot, because 2023 was also effectively Springless until very far into May (the end of May for me in the SE). If its somehow possible, 2024 is actually panning out even worse than 2023, which is actually quite impressive considering the bar for last Spring and last year in general is so low, its buried 10 feet into the dirt. 2023-24 has been a real eye-opener for me about the realities of living in this climate in its current iteration - having to wait until nearly halfway into the year to obtain a few scraps of consistent sunshine, dryness and warmth, is just no way to live life, unless your sense of fulfilment solely comprises reaching a book whilst listening to the rain smack the window, watching TV with the lights on at 2pm in late April (because its so dark outside), and playing in puddles. Seeing as winter is more-or-less non-existent now, we spend 8-9 months of a year wallowing in the same dull, wet, depressing 8/9c-13/14c conditions, waiting for the May to Sept period to land and potentially deliver something more uplifting. I say 'potential', because during that 3-4 month period, dry, sunny and warm weather only occurs a few weeks in total (if that). Indeed, a big chunk of that May-Sept period can very easily be dross too, but at least the grey lasts longer and the rain is warmer, eh. It's honestly no wonder that people of the British Isles became such avid seafarers, and that their seafaring was generally focused towards places with sunny, tropical, colourful climates. A desire to seek colours other than grey undoubtedly seeped into the national psyche. A pessimistic post, admittedly, but I'm utterly defeated seeing as my health issues are going to be worse a second-year running due to the weather conditions, regardless of how many Vitamin D tablets I pop.

Addicks Fan 1981 I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tams got sick of having her missives unfairly dissected, if not ridiculed; not by you, of course, but by those who should know better.

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.

Bats32 This Spring reminds me of what Spring was in the 70's and 80's. There was an expectation that cooler weather and frost risks could continue right into May. Personally, I love it but there are obviously other views out there. The pattern looks to be somewhat stuck. It makes it interesting in terms of seeing where it goes from here and the models appear to be struggling with that.

Not very often we see a low pressure system romp so triumphantly west from Scandinavia through the UK and Ireland to the Atlantic, as here on the 12z UKMO but there are some very intricate handovers of pockets of low heights that drive the whole process and give it some considerable elegance. The first pocket drops south to join the Scandinavian low at day 2, deepening it. The second drops out of the trough at the tip of Greenland at day 3, joining the melee at day 4 and drawing the system west over the UK and Ireland for the weekend. Thanks A third pocket drops southeast via the same route at day 6, pulling the system west out over the Atlantic. Looks like an “atmospheric” weekend awaits to round off this very mixed April, ripe for savoury evening treats washed down with a sumptuous glass or three of your favourite ale or wine. The late spring fitness effort can wait until some suitable conditions are laid on. And from there, let’s grab all the potential silver linings. Though not seemingly immediately on offer, there are at least some emerging signs that this remarkable retrogression, as a part of wider adjustments occurring within the generally very static hemispheric pattern, might eventually lead to sufficiently consistent heights building over the near continent to bring us a better chance of some warmer interludes as May progresses.